Capital / Cost Module - SEMATECH€¦ · Capital / Cost Module Economic Model Workshop, ......

$: Capital / Cost Module - SEMATECH€¦ · Capital / Cost Module Economic Model Workshop, ... distributions by group Row # 83 - 136 ... \stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 22 Manufacturing$
Capital / Cost Module

Economic Model Workshop, Philadelphia

Denis Fandel, Project Manager, MM&P1 August 2001

07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 2

Outline

• Capital Time Factors

• Equipment Market

• Building Capital

• Cost Time Factors

• Manufacturing Cost

• Cost / Wafer


P& C Model Roadmap

SEMICO product group trends

Row # 7 - 71

Wafer area demand by

product group

Row # 72 - 82

Technology / wafer size

distributions by group

Row # 83 - 136

Area demand by group,

technology, wafer size

Row # 137 - 172

Fab Capacity

Utilization by group

Fab demand by group,


Row # 173 - 201

Row # 202 - 237

Fab Learning by Technology/ wafer size

Rules File: Row # 7 - 74

New, Upgraded Fabs by group,


Row # 238 - 447

Converted, Transferred, Retired Fabs

by group

Row # 658 - 762

Fab Capacity by group,


Wafer Mfg Cost by group,


Row # 763 - 798

Row # 1279 – 1451

Yield, density by group,


Row #1467 - 1524

Revenue by

product group

Row # 1456 - 1466

Transistor Shipments and

Productivity by group

Row # 1525 – 1600

Building and Equipment Capital by

group, technology, wafer size, Fab type

Row # 800 - 1220

Wafer demand by group,


Throughput Learning and Depreciation

by group

Row # 1221 - 1278

Row # 1387 - 1422

Downgraded Fabs by group,


Row # 448 - 657

Cost / Capital by group,


B &E Model:

Row # 203 - 211

ITRS product group

definitions


P& C Model Roadmap


Row # 7 - 71


product group

Row # 72 - 82



Row # 83 - 136



Row # 137 - 172

Fab Capacity




Row # 173 - 201

Row # 202 - 237





Row # 238 - 447


by group

Row # 658 - 762





Row # 763 - 798

Row # 1279 – 1451



Row #1467 - 1524

Revenue by

product group

Row # 1456 - 1466



Row # 1525 – 1600



Row # 800 - 1220




by group

Row # 1221 - 1278

Row # 1387 - 1422



Row # 448 - 657



B &E Model:

Row # 203 - 211

ITRS product group

definitions


Capital Time Factor

Capital Node Factor: scaling factor recognizing the evolution of technology over time

For example: 1997 = 250nm, 1998 = 210nm, 1999 = 180nm, 2000 = 150nm, 2001 = 130nm……….

Formula = (½) Rate of capital change between nodes


New Equipment Market

New Equipment Market: total capital expenditures to equip all new fabs

Formula = New Fabs * Capital / New Fab (Column D, non-blue are extrapolations)

Column D (blue) = see Building and Equipment (base equipment $ * uplift factors)

Column D (green) = wafer size base factor, (yellow) = wafer trend base factor


Upgrade Equipment Market

Upgrade Equipment Market: total capital expenditures to equip upgrade fabs

Formula = Upgrade Fabs * Capital / Upgraded Fab (Column D)

Column D (blue) = (Add $ * Uplift Factors) - (Loss $ * Reutilization (Column A))

Column D (non-blue) = New (n+1) – New (n) within each wafer size


Upgrade Equipment Market Summary

Upgrade Equipment Market: summary of capital expenditures for all upgraded fabs

Formula = Upgrade1 + Upgrade2 + Upgrade3 + Upgrade4


Equipment Market Summary

Total Equipment Market: summary of capital expenditures to equip all new and upgraded fabs

Formula = New Equipment Market + Upgrade Equipment Market


New Building Capital

New Building Capital: total capital expenditures to construct a ll new fabs

Formula = New Fabs * Capital / New Fab (Column D, non-blue are extrapolations)

Column D (blue) = see Building and Equipment (base building $)



Upgrade Building Capital

Upgrade Building Capital: total capital expenditures to construct all upgraded fabs

Formula = Upgrade Fabs * Capital / Average Upgraded Fab (Column D)

Column D (blue) = Average (Upgrage1 $ + Upgrade2 $ + Upgrade3 $ + Upgrade4 $)

Column D (non-blue) = Average (New (n+1) – New (n)) + …….) within each wafer size


Build Capital Summary

Total Building Capital: summary of capital expenditures to construct all new and upgraded fabs

Formula = New Building Capital + Upgrade Building Capital


Total Capital Summary

Total Capital: summary of capital expenditures to construct and equip all new and upgraded fabs

Formula = Total Equipment Market + Total Building Capital


P& C Model Roadmap


Row # 7 - 71


product group

Row # 72 - 82



Row # 83 - 136



Row # 137 - 172

Fab Capacity




Row # 173 - 201

Row # 202 - 237





Row # 238 - 447


by group

Row # 658 - 762





Row # 763 - 798

Row # 1279 – 1451



Row #1467 - 1524

Revenue by

product group

Row # 1456 - 1466



Row # 1525 – 1600



Row # 800 - 1220




by group

Row # 1221 - 1278

Row # 1387 - 1422



Row # 448 - 657



B &E Model:

Row # 203 - 211

ITRS product group

definitions


Cost Time Factors

• Throughput Learning • new technology introduction

• new wafer size introduction

• Depreciation Factor• equipment (straight 5 years ) • building (straight 20 years)

• Wafer processing cost• throughput learning

• depreciation factor


Fab Industry Learning


Throughput Learning

Throughput Learning: overall percent impact of individual new and upgrade learning (See Rules)

Formula: Total Fabs Needed / Total Fabs On-line


Depreciation Factor

Depreciation Factor: percent of depreciation applicable to fixed cost

Formula: (Equipment Capital (past 5 years) + Building Capital (past 20 years)) / Total Capital (all years)


P& C Model Roadmap


Row # 7 - 71


product group

Row # 72 - 82



Row # 83 - 136



Row # 137 - 172

Fab Capacity




Row # 173 - 201

Row # 202 - 237





Row # 238 - 447


by group

Row # 658 - 762





Row # 763 - 798

Row # 1279 – 1451



Row #1467 - 1524

Revenue by

product group

Row # 1456 - 1466



Row # 1525 – 1600



Row # 800 - 1220




by group

Row # 1221 - 1278

Row # 1387 - 1422



Row # 448 - 657



B &E Model:

Row # 203 - 211

ITRS product group

definitions


Fixed Processing Cost

Fixed Cost: manufacturing cost associated with equipment and building assets

Formula = Wafers* Depreciation Factor * (Cost / Wafer) (Column D, non-blue are extrapolations)

Column D (blue) = see Building and Equipment (fixed cost $)



Variable Processing Cost

Variable Cost: manufacturing cost associated with labor, materials and other overhead

Formula = (Wafers / Throughput Learning) * (Cost / Wafer) (Column D, non-blue are extrapolations)

Column D (blue) = see Building and Equipment (variable cost $)



Manufacturing Cost Summary

COGS: summary of all manufacturing cost to execute the scenario

Formula = Fixed Cost $ + Variable Cost $


Wafer Overall Cost

Wafer Cost: cost to process a wafer plus chip packaging and test

Formula = COGS / Wafers

Column D (blue) = Nominal Cost, see Building and Equipment

Column D (non-blue) = Nominal Cost, Fixed Cost + Variable Cost


P& C Model Roadmap


Row # 7 - 71


product group

Row # 72 - 82



Row # 83 - 136



Row # 137 - 172

Fab Capacity




Row # 173 - 201

Row # 202 - 237





Row # 238 - 447


by group

Row # 658 - 762





Row # 763 - 798

Row # 1279 – 1451



Row #1467 - 1524

Revenue by

product group

Row # 1456 - 1466



Row # 1525 – 1600



Row # 800 - 1220




by group

Row # 1221 - 1278

Row # 1387 - 1422



Row # 448 - 657



B &E Model:

Row # 203 - 211

ITRS product group

definitions


Action Item

Wrap-Up / Follow-up

Capital / Cost Module - SEMATECH€¦ · Capital / Cost Module Economic Model Workshop, ......

Documents

Transcript of Capital / Cost Module - SEMATECH€¦ · Capital / Cost Module Economic Model Workshop, ......