CAPE BRETON DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY, 1991-2021 · PDF fileCape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021....
Transcript of CAPE BRETON DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY, 1991-2021 · PDF fileCape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021....
Presentation to CBRM Planning Advisory Committee Municipal Offices
The Esplanade, Sydney, Nova Scotia 1:30 pm, Monday, February 6, 2008
CAPE BRETON DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY, 1991-2021
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE
• Cape Breton Island comprised of– Cape Breton Regional Municipality– County of Inverness (including the Town of Port
Hawkesbury)– County of Richmond– County of Victoria
• Halifax Regional Municipality• Province of Nova Scotia
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
MODEL DESCRIPTION
• Cohort-Survival Model– Births and deaths in resident population– Migration is unexplained Residual
• Projection Model– Birth and death rates projected from 1991-1996– Migrations based on five scenarios (i.e., 1991-
96, 1996-01, 2001-06, 1991-2006, 1996-2001)
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
PAST & CURRENT PROJECTIONS
109,320 105,930 101,89097,410
92,815
147,500142,285
136,470130,220
123,910
109,320100,900
92,43483,901
75,987
147,500136,882
126,189
115,288105,158
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
CBRM Current Projection Cape Breton Current ProjectionCBRM 2004 Projection Cape Breton 2004 Projection
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
BIRTHS
13,280
11,815
9,2508,625
7,9607,170
5,9156,902
5,844
4,555 3,911
3,375 2,872
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Females 20-34 Females 20-34 Projected Estimated Births
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
DEATHS
5,365 5,432 5,577 5,823 5,968 6,105
7,361 7,433 7,583 7,834 7,984 8,126
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Cape Breton CA (CBRM) Cape Breton Island
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
DEPENDENCY RATIOS
53.9 52.5 51.5 50.350.3 51.5
59.8
72.1
32.8 30.627.3
23.623.620.7 19.8 19.221.1 21.9 24.2 26.726.730.8
40.0
52.9
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Past Dependency Ratio Future Dependency Ratio Past Youth DependencyFuture Youth Dependency Past Senior Dependency Future Senior Dependency
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
MIGRATION, 1991-1996
59158
-5-85
-1,094-948
-148-3
-2526
-1117
-3924
-27-34
39-164
-27
6911948
-35-927
-5184915
-863031
-173314109
-13115
-39-36
-1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemaleMales
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
MIGRATION, 1996-2001
-342-118-131
-266-1,492
-1,617-395
-197-177
-87-63
-720
-3-12
-4-28
-1204
-286-104-128-150
-1,257-1,137
-298-121-105
-59-75-23
11-7
-13-69-57
-40
-2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemaleMales
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
MIGRATION, 2001-2006
010027
-88-1,067
-899-75-25
43319791
176297
-8-19
40-14
-266
-18-61
-864-730
8614542427127151
106812715124
-27
-1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemaleMales
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
MIGRATION COMPARISON
-2,284
-5,033
-1,551
-1,037
-3,881
-798
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
01991-96 1996-2001 2001-2006
Males Females
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
3,565
4,120
4,435
4,530
4,060
3,260
3,790
4,455
4,510
4,340
3,265
2,915
2,555
2,190
1,845
1,365
825
325
90
3,440
3,880
4,215
4,555
3,945
3,465
4,405
4,925
4,645
4,365
3,435
3,010
2,825
2,645
2,605
2,285
1,570
800
380
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemalesMales
1991
3,980
4,445
4,625
5,175
4,230
3,960
4,490
4,580
4,375
3,355
3,010
2,765
2,490
2,295
1,930
1,285
775
280
110
3,775
4,170
4,595
4,880
3,990
4,365
4,925
4,755
4,370
3,450
3,100
2,900
2,850
2,800
2,755
1,935
1,330
640
360
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemalesMales
1996
POPULATION PROFILE, 1991-2021
2,630
3,435
3,985
4,160
3,020
2,425
2,850
3,570
4,240
4,365
4,185
3,145
2,770
2,315
1,855
1,425
870
415
130
2,570
3,325
3,750
4,060
3,290
2,800
3,160
4,270
4,795
4,550
4,235
3,340
2,920
2,665
2,400
2,180
1,735
1,015
470
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemalesMales
2001
2,315
2,720
3,460
3,890
3,080
2,110
2,340
2,810
3,585
4,220
4,380
4,145
3,160
2,570
2,020
1,465
965
500
165
2,225
2,630
3,305
3,685
3,190
2,555
2,880
3,165
4,305
4,785
4,525
4,285
3,390
2,880
2,535
2,110
1,730
1,265
585
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemalesMales
2006
1,990
2,385
2,740
3,370
2,745
2,275
2,040
2,310
2,830
3,575
4,250
4,375
4,155
2,970
2,280
1,630
1,025
595
200
1,910
2,275
2,610
3,240
2,820
2,510
2,630
2,880
3,200
4,300
4,760
4,620
4,345
3,350
2,750
2,240
1,685
1,305
710
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemalesMales
2011
1,720
2,055
2,405
2,660
2,300
1,875
2,215
2,020
2,325
2,825
3,620
4,270
4,465
3,950
2,685
1,885
1,185
665
245
1,655
1,955
2,260
2,555
2,440
2,150
2,580
2,635
2,910
3,205
4,290
4,880
4,740
4,300
3,205
2,445
1,800
1,280
745
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemalesMales
2016
1,470
1,780
2,075
2,340
1,750
1,570
1,820
2,200
2,035
2,325
2,875
3,670
4,405
4,310
3,635
2,275
1,425
805
285
1,410
1,695
1,945
2,210
1,835
1,860
2,220
2,585
2,655
2,910
3,200
4,435
5,035
4,735
4,125
2,865
1,970
1,360
735
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-89
90+
FemalesMales
2021
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
POPULATION COMPARISON
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Cape Breton CA Cape Breton Island Halifax CMA Other Nova Scotia - non-CMA/CA Nova Scotia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
13.3% 13.0% 12.0% 11.6% 11.1% 10.7% 10.2%
4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4%
36.8% 36.6% 39.6% 40.8% 42.0% 43.2% 44.4%
45.3% 46.0% 44.2% 43.6% 43.1% 42.5% 41.9%
Cape Breton CA Other Cape Breton Halifax CMA Other Nova Scotia - non-CMA/CA
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
FUTURE ISSUES
• Birth Rate is stable but many fewer potential mothers
• Death Rate falling but many more elderly• Migration over 40 will not add children• Stemming young out migration/stimulating
in migration requires economic opportunities
Cape Breton Demographic Study, 1991-2021
THANK YOU
EDM • Environmental Design and Management1940 Maitland StreetHalifax, Nova Scotia B3K 2Z8
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