1

Capabilities: The Bridge Between Research and Development

London, 21mar14

Prof. Ian Phillips Principal Staff Engineer

ARM Ltd ian.phillips@arm.com

Visiting Prof. at ...

Contribution to

Industry Award 2008

Opinions expressed are my own ...

Links to Pdf and Video @ http://ianp24.blogspot.com

2

Imperceptible, Perpetual, Insidious change ... New Technologies, Methods and Tools Did we understand them then? Do we understand them now?

... Has ‘old’ simply become irrelevant to today?

Research, Development, Product; familiar terms that have Puzzled me! ... Products and Technology have changed hugely, so does RD&P still mean the same?

Today Samsung Galaxy S5

2014 (1yr lifetime) 40yr ago BT Yeoman

c1964-84 (20yr lifetime)

3

10nm

100nm

1um

10um

100um

App

roxi

mat

e P

roce

ss G

eom

etry

ITRS’99

Tran

sist

ors/

Chi

p (M

)

Tran

sist

or/P

M (

K)

X

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law

Even 20 yr of Moore’s Law has Changed ARM!

4

Cro-Magnon Man (Us!) – 35,000 yr ago ‘Developed’ out of Homo-Sapien (Wise Human) >100,000 yr Mission: Survive Nature (1,000 gen’n)

The Philosophers – 2,500-1,000 yr ago Pythagoras, Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Archimedes, ... Mission: Understanding Nature

The Scientists – 1,000-500 yrs ago Galileo, Descartes, (1000 ad) Electricity - William Gilbert (1600ad) Mission: Manipulation of Nature

The Engineers – 260 yrs ago Industrial Revolution (1750: 8 gen’n) Mission: Exploitation of Nature Year 0: Science-Meets-Exploitation

... Technology Based Business Emerges! Universe – 13.6Byr

Earth – 4.5Byr Life – 3.5Byr

What do our Forefathers say about this ...

5

History: 87BC - Hipparchos’s Antikythera Early-Mechanical

Computation

Hipparchos c.190 BC – c.120 BC.

Ancient Greek Astronomer, Philosopher

and Mathematician A Mechanism for Computing Planetary Positions Technology: Hand-Made Metal, Hand-Cut Gears, Analogue Found in the Mediterranean in 1900 (Believe there might have been 10’s)

6

A Mechanism for Computing Polynomial Tables Technology: Metal, Precision Gears, Digital (base 10) Too expensive for the technology of the day

History: 1837 - Babbage's Difference Engine Constructed 2000

Late-Mechanical Computation

7

History: 1856 - Amsler’s Planimeter Mechanical

Computation

Planimeter 2014 !

A Mechanism for Computing the Area of an arbitrary 2D shape Technology: Precision Mechanics, Analogue Available today ... Electronically enhanced

8

General Purpose (Programmable) Computing Mechanism Technology: Electronics (valves), Digital (base 2) Available today ... Micro-Electronically enhanced (Mainframe <=> Laptop)

History: 1947 - Uo.Manchester’s “Baby” (Reconstruction)

Electronic Computation

9

Available Technology Limits Product Options ... The Technology and Tools available when you start your Product Development ...

... limit the Technology you can utilise in your Product ! (duh!)

But failure to recognise this causes time and budget overrun (missing market opportunity)

Customers don’t actually buy Technology; they buy Solutions to their Needs A Need has intrinsic value; the Product addressing it must be affordable in this context

Not all Solutions are equal: Innovative solutions use Available Technology in ‘novel’ ways to deliver Product Differentiation This is the major contribution of the Engineer; and why team and personal,

knowledge and experience is (and will remain) a genuine asset.

... New-Technology only provides Product Options ... Not all will make a Valuable difference to your End-Product

10

Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs)1

Correctly illustrates a 1:1 relationship between Science and Technology ... But is frequently misinterpreted as a 1:1 relationship between

Science and Product ... Because Production is synonymous with Product (Not) Thus a Product is a Developed-form of a Single Science (Not)

We know that Products are more complex ... Technology Products depend on many Sciences End-Customers don’t actually buy Technology ...

... although they frequently call it that ... ... they are buying a (Black-Box) Solution to their needs

Politicians and the Media (thus The Public) is content to take the simpler, but wrong, interpretation

... With Consequences on how we are Taught; and thus how we Work!

1: Attributed to US DoD / NASA

11

Digital Electronics Software Memory Optics Analogue Electronic Sensors/Transducers Mechanics Micro-Motors Displays Discharge Tube Robotic Assembly Plastic, Metal, Glass

...Technologies working seamlessly together to deliver System Functionality (Camera) ... But having access to the Technology is not enough, it has to be usable!

2014 - Canon EOS 5D A 21c Electronic System1 Product

1: aka; Cyber-Physical System (Geek-Talk!) 2: Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

Incorporating DIGIC5+ (ARM)

System-Level Computation

‘Classic’ Computer

Q: Why couldn’t ARM make a camera to compete with Canon?

A: Because Canon has too many Capabilities that we don’t have!

12

Businesses need to Know they can make a Product before they Start Capabilities help to Manage the Risk (There’s frequently no second chance!)

Making a Product is Work; but based on Capabilities it is Known-Work! Unknown’ leads to Protracted Timescales, Blown Budgets, Lost Opportunities and Panic!

Business need and Appropriate set of Capabilities, before it commences a Product Development

... And Different Products (even Similar) may need different Capability-Sets

So it is Capabilities that Limit a Business's Product Options ... ... they are also an Entry Barrier to your Competitors

CA

PAB

ILIT

IES

Product Development

PR

OD

UC

T

13

Product – Delivered Functionality Cost-Effective, Functional, Quality

Capability – Installed Technology In-place in business, ready for mission-critical use in a New Product Dev’t.

Technology – Scaled-up Science Reliable and productive enough for use in a real Product or its Process. May be New-to-All, or New-to-You (others may have this as a Capability)

Science – Demonstrated Fundamentals Predictable, Encapsulated, New

The Path from Science to Exploitation Science =in=> Technology =in=> Capability =in=> Product

Capability Capability Capability Capability

Capability Capability Capability

Technology Technology

Technology Science Science Science Science

Science

Science Science

UN

KN

OW

N

Unk

now

n

Concept

WO

RK

(kno

wn)

Enquire, understand & establish (Research)

Exploit knowledge (D

evelopment)

TRL 9

TRL 1-4

TRL 5-9

TRL 9

Using Science or Technology here just increases RISK

14

A Capability is an Installed ‘Unit’ of Technology, such that it may be relied upon for Mission-Critical Business purposes. They are Installed: Reliable, Trusted, Predictable, Usable. They Cross Technology Boundaries (HW, SW, Optics, Multi-Chip, etc) They are NOT Product Specific ... Eg: Need Fortran capability by 2016. Need to handle Logic Reliability by10nm node. Need 3D

capability to replace Moore’s Law by 2025. Need 10x power efficiency improvement by 2020. Need MP JIT Java Compiler by 2018.

They can be Technology Answers ... Eg: How will our Industry handle the end of Moors Law? How can we increase our Customers

and their Customers Productivity? When will Transistor Reliability become a serious issue?

... Capabilities are the Foundations for Product Development ... they are established by Research (literally: “Finding out”)

The Capability Model1

Capabilities are the Links between Research and Development

1: As a technical concept, not directly described by literature.

15

Short Term: From the Known-Set ... Refine what we know (Including Individual knowledge, Team knowledge, and Tools). Acquire what others know (Recruit, Develop, Contract, Licence, Acquire, Espionage, etc) ... Specific, internal, secrecy, low-number, high-cost, confidence

Longer Term: From the Unknown-Set ... Targeted Research - Specific, point-focus, commercial advantage (Crown-Jewels) Partnered Research - Specific, focused, indirect commercial advantage (Business Partners) University/Institute Research - Generic, wide spectrum, non-differentiating knowledge Private Funded Research Projects National Support Programs (TSB, H2020, Research Councils, DARPA, etc)

... Generic, broad-spectrum, openness, high-number, low-cost, partnering, sharing, uncertainty

... Guided by a Roadmap derived from Corporate Objectives

Research Establishes Capabilities ... ... for Development Engineers to use for Product Development

16

Engineers Deliver an effective Technical-Product solution ... Meeting Functional and Non-Functional criteria ... Eg: Quality, TTM, Budget, Reproducibility, Testability, Cost, Power.

Maximising Product Differentiation; Minimising Product Risk, Cost and Uncertainty Using current Capability (Technology, Methodology, Tools and Know-How)

Engineers Innovate by pushing the bounds of Capabilities ... Using the opportunities presented by the Particular Product Brief Trading between current Capabilities (Eg: HW, SW, Analogue) Utilising his/her wider sphere of knowledge, know-how and experience ... Innovation is (and will remain) a fundamental aspect of the Engineers role

... Directed by Specific Business and Product Plans

Development Delivers a Technical Product ... ... (Tangible or Intangible) to fulfil a Customer Need and a Business Objective

17

A Customer buys a Product it for its Valued Utility ... ... A Supplier sells a Product for its Anticipated Utility They are different so its Important to Match Expectations! Product must exceed Consumers needs (by how much?) Functionality is Assumed (It has no Extra Value!) Customers are not always the best source of New Product guidance

End-Product is very special ... It funds its entire value-chain The End-Customer is YOU!

Research Outcomes are also Products! Their Product is a Capability (Capability-Product)

... Without a suitable Business Model the Relationship is Unsustainable!

The Product ... ... The basis of a Mutually Beneficial, Business Relationship

18

Conclusions Capabilities Limit a Companies Product Possibilities

Innovative Engineers produce Differentiated Products within this scope Technology and Science are opportunities for ‘tomorrow and the day after’!

Business needs to Know it can make a Product before they start to Development-Engineers use current Capabilities to make Mission-Critical Products Research-Engineers establish Capabilities before they are needed for use! Capability Development should be coordinated by a Roadmap

Science =RISK=> Technology =Risk=> Capability =risk=> Product Businesses minimise Risk by using Capabilities as far as possible Technologies may not offer benefit in excess of their cost (not just $) Science is significantly less likely to do so! Desperate Businesses are known to clutch at straws!

End-Products fund their whole life-cycle ... IF End-Customers buy them! End-Customers don’t buy YOUR Technology, they buy solutions to THEIR Needs ... Functionality!