Cannabis Regulation Impacts on Road Fatalities and Crime ... · Adult-use cannabis has been...
Transcript of Cannabis Regulation Impacts on Road Fatalities and Crime ... · Adult-use cannabis has been...
Cannabis Regulation
Impacts on Road Fatalities
and Crime Rates:
Quick Facts
When considering regulatory cannabis access, whether for medical or adult-use, increasing crime rates and road fatalities are
often cited as a reason to keep prohibitive laws intact. Sensationalized stories are all over the internet claiming road fatalities
significantly increase, along with crime rates. The question can be answered when looking at data kept by the states involved,
and checking for trends.
The following data sets were checked for correlation to cannabis access:
• US Census data for population growth rates
• American Health Rankings for violent crime
• Economic trend data over a 10 year period
• National and State databases for impaired driving trends
• National and state data regarding road fatalities
Summary
• Nine total states have had regulation for both medical and adult-use long enough to collect preliminary data.
• Only one out of the nine states showed rises in road fatalities and impaired driving that could potentially be correlated to can-
nabis regulation. More data on environmental factors is needed for the assessment to be considered conclusive.
• Eight states showed NO identifiable correlation between cannabis regulation and road fatalities. Trends were often in a
pattern prior to regulation, and most fluctuations happened with no direct relation to cannabis access.
• Changes in crime rate appeared to have no massive increases, except in Alaska. Alaska’s economy went in to a steep decline
the same year voters officially regulated adult-use as an industry. Adult-use cannabis has been quasi-legal in Alaska since
1975.
• Most crime rates have declined since the late 1990’s until present, with increases still falling well below peak years around
the turn of the century.
• Several states reported lower DUI fatalities/rates.
• Maine had significantly less fatalities and lower crime rates.
• Ultimately no direct correlation could be found that would implicate cannabis in crime rate or road fatality drops/increases.
• Some of the factors used to disqualify regulation as a cause for incident increases:
• If overall DUI levels decreased then consumption of an intoxicating substance wasn’t causal for rate
increases
• Patterns that held steady and were in progress before the regulations took effect, which meant those
trends started prior to cannabis access
• Population growth at or near the same rates as increases
• Irrational fluctuations up and down that would suggest that rate changes are independent of regulation
2008-2010 were peak years for Colorado’s
medical cannabis patient registry. Despite a
13.2% population growth from 2010 until 2018*,
patient registry numbers held somewhat evenly
then declined when there was no benefit to being
on the registry outside saving tax money.
*https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CO
Since Medical was legalized,
Colorado’s overall crime rate is
down with only slight fluctuations
since the legalization of adult-use.
Nothing in this data suggests that
legalization of cannabis correlates
to increased crime levels.
https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/
dcj-ors/ors-crimestats
Colorado’s overall motor vehicle fatality rate
has declined since 2002, with a brief uptick in
crashes peaking in 2017. Since then, fatality
rates have started to decline again. According
to a 2018 study by the Colorado department of
Criminal Justice, “The total number of DUI
citations issues by the Colorado State Patrol
(CSP) decreased from 5,705 in 2014 to 4,849 in
2017.” This means any increases in traffic
fatalities did not correlate with an increase in
intoxication of any substance.
https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/publicsafety/
news/colorado-division-criminal-justice-publishes-
report-impacts-marijuana-legalization-colorado
https://www.codot.gov/library/traffic/safety-crash-data/fatal-crash-data-city-county/Colorado_Historical_Fatalities_Graphs.pdf
In November 2016, the State of Nevada
legalized adult-use cannabis. Crash
fatality rates remained relatively the
same, and an upward trend had started
several years before cannabis
regulation. According to US DOT and
Nevada State data, fatality rates
through the end of 2019 look like this:
2017: 311*
2018: 330*
2019 through November: 243**
Nevada’s crime rates have steadily been dropping
and continued that trend after regulation of
recreational. Medical access became effective in
2001, and the crime statistics overall are significantly
lower. ***
*https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/stsi.htm
**https://zerofatalitiesnv.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Nov2019StateFatalReport.pdf
***https://www.americashealthrankings.org/learn/reports/2019-annual-report/state-summaries-nevada
As with Colorado, impaired driving rates in Nevada declined from 2016 through the end of
2018*, the most recent statistics available. Nevada’s regulation of cannabis access has not
resulted in any data that can directly correlate accidents and crime with cannabis access.
In Vermont, traffic fatalities have
remained independent of regulation
impacts, with increases in fatalities not
correlating to cannabis laws.
According to news reports, Vermont
had a sharp decline in the number of
road fatalities from 2018-2019:
2019: 44*
Vermont regulated medical access in 2004 and
recreational in 2018. From 2016 through 2019,
crime rates in Vermont have steadily increased,
though they are still far below the national average.
Crime rates after adult-use cannabis laws were
passed remains relatively unchanged from 2018
through 2019. ***
*https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/stsi.htm
**https://www.rutlandherald.com/news/road-fatalities-down-in-vermont-in/article_19264494-97b1-5ead-a997-ecbc5c37ab50.html
***https://www.americashealthrankings.org/learn/reports/2019-annual-report/state-summaries-vermont
Vermont adult-use cannabis regulation impacts are still too soon to calculate, but medical
access has been around since 2004. A Fiscal Year 2020 report from NHTSA reports that
impaired driving rates were steadily declining*, which would exempt impairment as a cause
for fatal crash increases. There is no viable correlation between crime rates, traffic fatalities,
and cannabis laws.
Overall, since the beginning of cannabis regulation,
crime in Oregon has fallen. Crime rates after adult-
use cannabis laws were passed have only slightly
increased, and are lower than the population
growth. No correlation to cannabis regulation can be
attributed to crime rates.***
*https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/stsi.htm
** https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/OR/PST045219
***https://www.americashealthrankings.org/learn/reports/2019-annual-report/state-summaries-oregon
****https://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/Get-Involved/CIAC/D2_Apr%202019%20CIAC%20KPMs.pdf
Oregon’s medical cannabis program began in 1998, with legal adult-use sales starting at the
end of 2015. Between 2010 and 2019, Oregon had a 10% population growth.** Overall,
since cannabis regulation began inn 1998, crime is down***. Traffic fatalities are up*, but the
trend started before legal access to adult-use. A 2019 report by the Oregon Department of
Transportation cited, alcohol, speed, and not wearing safety belts as the leading causes of
fatalities****. The ODOT does not attribute the rise in numbers to cannabis regulation.
*https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/stsi.htm
** https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MA/PST045219
***https://www.americashealthrankings.org/learn/reports/2019-annual-report/state-summaries-massachusetts
****https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_Massachusetts
Cannabis regulation for medical use began in 2012, with adult-use following in 2016.****
Traffic fatalities have hovered in the same pattern since 2009 with little change.* Between
2010 and 2019, Massachusetts had a population increase of 5.3%.** Alcohol related road
deaths have dropped in Massachusetts since 2014.* Crime rates are on a steady trend
downward as well. There is no relationship between cannabis regulation and traffic fatalities
or crime rates.
1 https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/stsi.htm
2 https://www.maine.gov/dps/bhs/crash-data/documents/
mainehighwaysafetyfacts2018edition.pdf
3 https://www.americashealthrankings.org/learn/reports/2019-annual-
report/state-summaries-maine
4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_Maine
Cannabis regulation for medical use began in 1999, with adult-use following in 2016. (4)
Crime, fatal accidents, and rates of impaired driving are all relatively unchanged n in Maine.
(1) (2) (3)
There is no relationship between cannabis regulation and traffic fatalities or crime rates.
1https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/stsi.htm
2 http://dhss.alaska.gov/dph/Epi/injury/Documents/sa/SubstanceAbuseEpiProfile_2019.pdf
3 https://www.americashealthrankings.org/learn/reports/2019-annual-report/state-summaries-alaska
4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_Alaska
5 http://www.dot.state.ak.us/highwaysafety/stats.shtml#Impaired%20Driving%20Statistics
6 http://labor.alaska.gov/trends/
Alaska has always bucked the norms when it comes to personal liberty, and the regulation of
cannabis has had an interesting journey there. In a 1975 case (Ravin vs State), Alaska preserved the
rights of citizens to use cannabis on their own private property. Cannabis regulation for medical use
began in 1998, with adult-use industry regulation following in 2014.(4) Due to the small population
and extreme distance between populations, Alaska does not have a robust cannabis industry.
Medical caregivers service patient needs, and there are adult-use shops in population centers like
Anchorage. Violent crime (3) and vehicle deaths (1) have risen, but are more likely related to the
drastic economic downturn experienced in Alaska from 2014 that is still in recovery. (6) The State
of Alaska points to environmental traumas and mental illness as the leading causes of substance
abuse.(2) There is no direct correlation to cannabis regulation.
*5 *1
*6
*6
*3
1 https://www.americashealthrankings.org/learn/reports/2019-annual-report/
state-summaries-washington
2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_Washington_(state)
3 https://wtsc.wa.gov/programs-priorities/impaired-driving/
4 https://wtsc.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Marijuana-and-Alcohol-Involvement-in-Fatal-Crashes-in-WA_FINAL.pdf
5 https://adai.washington.edu/WAdata/
Washington State has seen an increase in road fatalities. (3)(4)(5) Given the most recent data, THC
only related fatalities were at 9% of the overall fatality rate. The most common impairment was
alcohol use with other drugs, then alcohol-only related fatalities. (4) Use of methamphetamines and
opioids has sharply risen, with researchers citing a 134% increase in opiate use.(5) Cannabis for
medical use has been regulated since 1998, with adult-use following in 2012.(1) Washington State is
the only state that has followed this trend and more research is needed. The poly-drug
involvement and rise in fatalities is increasing across the board for all drugs, except cocaine. (5)
Neither medical regulation or adult-use regulation
has changed crime rates which are fluctuating
independently of regulatory measures. Overall
the crime rates in Washington State have dropped
since 1998.
There is no relationship between cannabis and
crime rate increases.
1 https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/stsi.htm
2 https://www.responsibility.org/alcohol-statistics/state-map/state/california/
3 https://www.americashealthrankings.org/learn/reports/2019-annual-report/state-summaries-california
4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California
5 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA
Cannabis regulation for medical use began in 1996, with adult-use following in 2016. (4)
Traffic fatalities have steadily been rising for over 10 years. (1) Between 2010 and 2019,
California had a population increase of 6.1%, and the impaired driving rate increased 9.3%
almost matching the population increase. (2)(5) Crime rates have consistently decreased. (3)
There is no relationship between cannabis regulation and traffic fatalities or crime rates
that can be determined from this data.
California has one of the most robust medical
programs that allows patient cultivation, open
access, and has a regulated industry. To date, this
has not resulted in sharp increases in traffic
fatalities, crime, or impaired driving. The data
patterns are unchanged and appear to fluctuate
independently from cannabis regulation.