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6   THE CANBERRA TIMES   Tuesday, November 12, 2013

www.canberratimes.com.au WORLD

 

 WORLD

Massive destruction hindersMore bigstorms ontheir way

Sea-surface temperatures

were about 1 degree

above average in waters

east of the Philippines

where Haiyan formed.

1Atmosphere has already

warmed 0.9 degrees since

1750. Global emissions

trajectory has us on a course

for a rise of about 3.5 degrees.

2Climate change will warm the sea

surface but it will also have an impact on

the troposphere. While the upper level

warms, the tops of the storms are expected

to go higher, reaching cooler air.

3The temperature difference

between sea surface and

top of the storm will be greater,

increasing the probability of

more intense storms.

4

Warm, moist

air rises

Bands of

thunderstormsspin aroundthe centre

Fastest winds

spiral upwardsinside thick clouds

Air flows clockwise

out from centre

Warm air spirals inward,

speeding up at centre

Storm turns anticlockwisein the Northern Hemisphere

(clockwise in the Southern

Hemisphere)

Calm air

sinks at centre

For a typhoon to form,

the water must be at least26.5°C at a depth of 46m

How the monster formed

ByPeter Hannam

DEVASTATION: TyphoonHaiyan’shavoc includeda destroyedhighway,left, anda strippedcoconutplantation,right.   Photos:Reuters

Extreme storm events such as supertyphoon Haiyan, which wreakedhavoc in the Philippines, are morelikely as the build-up of greenhousegases warms the planet, scientistssay.

 Wind speeds from typhoon Haiyan were estimated to have reached314km/h when the monster stormmade landfall on the Philippineisland of Samar on Friday, eclipsing the previous record set by hurricaneCamille in 1969, according to USmeteorologist Jeff Masters.

The death toll from the city of Tacloban alone may exceed 10,000people, local authorities say.

Professor Will Steffen, a researcherat the ANU and member of theClimate Council, said a hotter,moister climate is already affecting storms such as Haiyan.

‘‘Once [cyclones] do form, they getmost of their energy from the surface waters of the ocean,’’ Professor Stef-fen said. ‘‘We know sea-surface tem-peratures are warming pretty mucharound the planet, so that’s a pretty direct influence of climate change onthe nature of the storm.’’

Data compiled from the USNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows sea temperat-ures were about 0.5 to 1 degree abovenormalinthewatersto theeast ofthePhilippines asHaiyanbeganforming.The waters cooled in the storm’s wake, an indication of how the stormsucked up energy.

Typhoons – or tropical cyclones asthey are known in Australia – requiresea-surface temperatures of at least26.5 degrees to form, according tothe Bureau of Meteorology. The low-pressure systems can persist overlower sea-surface temperatures oncethey get going.

Kevin Walsh, an associate pro-fessor at the University of Melbourneand an expert in tropical meteoro-

logy, said warmer sea-surface tem-peratures are only one factor indetermining cyclones’ ferocity.

The key is the temperature differ-ence between those seas andthe topso f t h e s t or m s, h i gh i n t h etroposphere.

That temperature differential incyclones is expected to widen asstorm heights push higher in theatmosphere, Dr Walsh said.

Research indicates that while there

may be fewer tropical cyclones in thefuture, their intensity will increase.

 A peer-reviewed report in   Nature 

Geoscience   published in 2010 by ateam including Australia’s Dr JohnMcBride identified a likely shifttowards fewer but stronger storms.

“Existing modelling studies ... con-sistently project decreases in theglobally averaged frequency of trop-ical cyclones, by 6 to 34 per cent,” thereport said. “Balanced against this,

higher-resolution modelling studiestypically project substantialincreasesin the frequency of the most intensecyclones, and increases of the orderof 20 per cent in the precipitationrate within 100 kilometres of thestorm centre.”

Since the atmosphere can hold 4 to8 per cent more water per degree of  warming, scientists say rain eventshave the potential to get moreextreme, including cyclones.

The risk for intense rainfall andflooding when they hit land and droptheir water as rainfall increases withglobal warming, Professor Steffensaid.

“They’re packing more punch interms of the wind and also the watervapour orrain thattheyare carrying.”

 And since climat e change isalready raising sea levels, the risk of severeinundation from stormsis alsoincreasing, Professor Steffen said.

Maxwell Smart’s cone of silence is now a tentByMichaelSchmidtinWashington

FOILINGTHE EAVESDROPPERS: USPresidentBarackObamausesa securitytentin RiodeJaneiroin2011to keephisconversationsprivate.   Photo:The WhiteHouse

 When President Barack Obama travelsabroad, his staff packs briefing books,gifts for foreign leaders and something more closely associated with camping than diplomacy: a tent.

Even when Mr Obama travels to alliednations, aides quickly set up the security tent– whichhas opaquesides andnoise-making devices inside – in a room nearhishotelsuite.Whenthe Presidentneedsto read a classified document or have asensitive conversation, he ducks into thetent to shield himself from secret videocameras and listening devices.

US security officials demand theirbosses – not just the President butmembersof Congress,diplomats,policy-makers and military officers – take suchprecautions when travelling abroadbecause it is widely acknowledged theirhosts often have no qualms aboutsnooping on their guests.

The US has come under withering criticism in recent weeks about revela-tions that the National Security Agency listened in on allied leaders such asChancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. A panel created by Mr Obama in August toreviewthat practice,among other things,is scheduled to submit a preliminary report this week and a final report nextmonth.

But US officials assume – and can citeevidence – they receive the same treat-ment when they travel abroad, evenfrom European Union allies. ‘‘No matter

 where you are, we are a target thesedays,’’ said James Woolsey jnr, director of central intelligence during the Clintonadministration. ‘‘No matter where we go,countrieslike China, Russiaand muchof the Arab world have assets and are trying to spy on us, so you have to think aboutthat and take as many precautions aspossible.’’

On a trip to Latin America in 2011, forexample, a White House photo showedMr Obama talking from a security tent ina Rio de Janeiro hotel suite with Hillary 

Clinton, then the secretary of state, andRobert Gates, defence secretary at thetime, about the air war against Libya thathad been launched the previous day. Another photo, taken three days later inSan Salvador, showed him conferring from the tent with advisers about theattack.

TheStateDepartment,the CIAand theNational Security Council declined toprovide details on measures to protectofficials overseas. But former officialssaid measures ranged from instructing 

officials travelling overseas to assumeevery utterance and move is undersurveillance and requiring them to scrubtheir mobile phones for listening devicesafter they have visited governmentoffices, to equipping the President’slimousine, which always travels withhim, to keep private conversations priv-ate. Mr Obama carries a specially encrypted BlackBerry.

Countermeasures are taken on US soilas well. When cabinet secretaries andtop national security officials take uptheir new jobs, the government retrofitstheir homes with special secure roomsfor top-secret conversations and com-puter use.

During the Cold War, listening devices were found embedded in the walls andlight fixtures of the hotels where USdiplomats stayed.

These days, an official said, US ana-lysts worry more about eavesdropping radio signals beamed towards hotelrooms in the hope of picking up officials’conversations. ‘‘We took it for grantedthat in some of these hotels, no matterthestate,devices were builtin there,’’ theofficial said.

Many of the measures taken foroverseas travel are only for the mostsenior officials because they are costly and cumbersome. Instead of the tent,less senior officials can end up using smaller structures that look like tele-phone booths. But all officials travelling in this age of high surveillance are givenone basic marching order: use commonsense.   NewYorkTimes

London

Giant British database joins fight against cancer

 Weather-forecasting science is being used to predict the most effective waysto fight cancer in a ground-breaking development.

Techniques borrowed from Britain’sMet Office have been put into a unique‘‘artificial intelligence’’ database con-

tions using powerful computers tocrunch information from myriadsources, scientists tapping into the Can-SAR database will be guided to the mosteffective drugs and treatments.

CanSAR, developed in Britain, bringstogether vast quantities of data frompatients, clinical trials and genetic, bio-chemical and pharmacological research.

Space Telescope for a million years.Dr Bissan Al-Lazikani, a leading mem-

ber of the CanSAR team from theInstitute of Cancer Research, in London,said: ‘‘CanSAR uses artificial intelligence,like that used in weather forecasts, topredict which potential drugs are likely to work in which circumstances.

‘‘The database is capable of extraor-

genetics, chemistry and other laboratory research. It can spot opportunities forfuture cancer treatments that no humaneye could be expected to see.’’

CanSAR is being made freely availableto scientists around the world.

Using the database, research that hadpreviously taken months will now takeminutes. Dr Al-Lazikani added: ‘‘It is the

Local Filipinos rally in support of victimsByFletaPage

ENVOY: Belen Anota iskeepingclosetabs.

 As soon as typhoon Haiyan hit thePhilippines, Filipinos in Australia startedfund-raising for the affected communit-ies.

There are an estimated 8000 Filipinosand Australians of Filipino descent inCanberra, a relatively small proportion of the 225,000 nationally, but they havebanded together following the destructivestorm.

“This is one very good thing aboutFilipinos here in Australia and elsewherein the world ... even before the embassy or the government could make an appeal,they on their own already started raising funds and collecting goods to [provide]relief and assistance to those victims of the typhoon,” Philippines ambassador

Belen Anota said. “In Canberra there aremany small fund-raising events .. . [onSunday] there was one, spearheaded by people who come from Iloilo, because it

 was one of the hardest-hit areas –[although] it was only typhoon signalnumber 3 in that area.”

 While the full extent of the damagefrom the typhoon, which was classed as acategory 5 storm, will not be known untillater in the week, Ms Anota is expecting the toll to increase significantly from theearly initial reports.

“The situation is very bad. The typhoonhas been very destructive and devastating for the Philippines,’’ she said. “Today thereport from our disaster risk management[says] over200are reporteddead,over100are missing and the damage to property,infrastructure and agriculture and farmsruns into the trillions of pesos [billions of dollars] and we know of course those areinitial reports.”

Haiyan is the 24th typhoon to hit the

disaster-prone archipelago this season,and just last month an earthquake mea-suring 7.2 on the Richter scale alsodevastated the island of Bohol.

“Our weather bureau says we areexpecting three more typhoons, so hope-fully not as destructive,” Ms Anota said.

“We’re praying very hard, our peoplecontinue to be resilient, they have beenresilient through the years. Our govern-ment will persevere assisting, working atthe soonest possible time to restorepower, restore water, health services.”

Ms Anota asked that people keeppraying the Philippines is spared fromfurther strong typhoons. “If they want toassist, there are many avenues – eithertheir Filipino community organisation,the Australian Red Cross or Caritas Australia . .. there are many options.”

Canberra man survives againByDevonMcGillicuddy

 A Canberran who survived the bushfires in 2003has now survived the worst natural disaster tohit the Philippines.

Peter Harris, from Chapman, who moved toCebu only four weeks ago, said he feared for hisfamily’s lives as typhoon Haiyan ripped throughthe island. “Everything went past the window, I was so worried about the glass breaking,” MrHarris said.

North Cebu is west of the hardest-hit region,Tacloban, and was in the direct path. Oxfam says98 per cent of houses in north Cebu have beendestroyed. Drinking water, food and medicineare desperately needed.

This is not the first time Mr Harris’s house hassurvived a disaster.

During the Canberra fires 10 years ago hishouse was saved while 17 of 22 homes on his

street were lost. He said a generator and fridgehe bought after the fires helped him survive thislatest disaster.

“We had to stay inside for about 12 hours.There’s been no power, it just came back on lastnight. We’ve had power because I’ve got thatgenerator,” he said. “I’m a type one diabetic. If Ididn’t have my fridge I wouldn’t have survived.”

The 66-year-old said after the typhoon hit theregion the Malaysian air f orce dropped food andtents into Tacloban but he did not know what was happening now.

“It’s really bad over there. Tens of thousands of people haven’t eaten for days,” he said. “They can get there, they can get a boat over there.”

 According to Oxfam it was difficult to get tonorthCebubecauseof theamountof debrisoverthe roads, and while the immediate needs of thearea were a concern the long-term affects werealso a cause for worry.

10m aid praised as agood ‘first instalment’ByDavidWroe

How to help

UNICEF

www.unicef.org.au

1300 884 233

AUSTRALIAN RED CROSS

www.redcross.org.au

1800 811 700

OXFAM

www.oxfam.org

1800 088 110

WORLD VISION

www.worldvision.com.au

13 32 40

SAVE THE CHILDREN

www.savethechildren.org

 Aid groups have welcomed a $10 mil-lion aid pledge by the Australiangovernment to help the Philippinesbut warn much more will be neededfor a disaster of the scale of typhoonHaiyan.

Foreign Affairs Minister JulieBishop announced the funding onMonday. She described the destruc-tion in the country as a ‘‘disaster on amassive scale’’ as she announced theaid package, joining the US, Britainand New Zealand among interna-tional donors.

‘‘The loss of life, the damage toproperty and homes has beenabsolutely devastating,’’ she said.

 About $4 million will go to theUnited Nations and another $3 mil-lion through non-governmentorganisations. A further $1 million will go towards the deployment of an Australian medical team, which willfly out of Darwin on Wednesday onan Australian Defence Force Boeing C-17. Another $1 million will be usedfor food and other essential items,such as tarpaulins, water containersand mosquito nets, and $1 million will go to t he Red Cross.

 World Vision chief executive TimCostello, who flew from Africa onMonday night to the Philippines tohelp with the relief effort, welcomedthe funding but said more wouldprobably be needed.

‘‘As a first instalment, that’s ter-rific,’’he said. ‘‘Ithinkthisis probably going to demand more money. It is acrisis growing by the day.’’

Oxfam Australia CEO Helen Szokeagreed the funding committed by the Abbott government should be fol-lowed up with a larger contribution.

‘‘For a disaster of this scale,$10 million is not going to go very far,’’ she said.

Ms Bishop said the amountpledged by the government was ‘‘on ascale with other countries’’.

Britain has pledged £6 million($10.2 million) and the EuropeanUnion  A 3 million ($4.3 million).

 After the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami,

estimated to have killed more than230,000 people, including at least130,000 in Indonesia, the Howardgovernment pledged $1 billion in aidto Indonesia.

Ms Bishop said the Philippines hadnot asked for military help from Australia, though all options wouldbe considered if such a request weremade. The US has sent marines fromOkinawa, Japan.

The Department of Foreign Affairssays Australians concerned for the welfare of family and friends in theregion should first attempt to contactthem directly. If that is unsuccessful,they should call DFAT’s 24-hourconsular emergency centre on1300 555 135 or +612 6261 3305.

 Australians are being urged tocontinue with their plans to holiday in the Philippines, despite thetyphoon and earlier earthquake thathit the region.

On Monday, the Australian govern-ment advised visitors to ‘‘exercise ahigh degree of caution’’ when visiting the Philippines.

But Consuelo Jones, from thePhilippine Department of Tourism(Australia/New Zealand), urged Aus-tralians to support her country in itstime of need.

‘‘I strongly feel that any Australian with plans of going to the Philippinesshould go,’’ she said. ‘‘All flights havebeen restored throughout the coun-try, except to Leyte.’’

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‘‘artificial intelligence’’ database con-taining 1.7 billion experimental results.

Just as weathermen make their predic-

chemical and pharmacological research.It condenses more data than would begenerated by operating the Hubble

‘‘The database is capable of extraor-dinarily complex virtual experimentsdrawing on information from patients,

minutes. Dr Al-Lazikani added: ‘‘It is thelargest database of cancer diseaseinformationin theworld.   PA