Canadian Operational Air Quality Forecasting Systems: Status, Recent

Progress, and Challenges

2nd CAMS General Assembly, Warsaw, Poland , 16-18 May 2017

Authors: Radenko Pavlovic1, Didier Davignon1, Sylvain Ménard1, Rodrigo Munoz-Alpizar1, Hugo Landry1, Samuel Gilbert1, Paul-André Beaulieu1, Michael D. Moran2, Jack Chen3, Verica Savic-Jovcic2, Paul Makar2, Craig Stroud2 and Cynthia Whaley2

1Air Quality Modeling Applications Section, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada2Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada 3Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Page 2 – May-22-17

Canadian AQ Forecast Overview

An 18-year-old program that has evolved from an O3-only forecast program in eastern Canada in 1999, to O3 and PM2.5 in 2004 and to a Canada-wide O3, NO2, PM2.5 forecast program in 2007.

As of 2007, forecasts are communicated in most areas as an Air Quality Health Index (AQHI)

AQHI = (10/10.4)*100*[(exp(0.000871*NO2)-1) + (exp(0.000537*O3)-1) + (exp(0.000487*PM2.5)-1)]

Source: www.health-safety-canada.ca

http://absoluteinterior.ca/air-quality/

As of May 2017, there are 283AQHI stations in Canada

Different messaging for at-risk population vs. general population

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Observed (2000-2014) Pollution Trends in Canada

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2016: https://www.ec.gc.ca/indicateurs-indicators/default.asp?lang=En&n=7DCC2250-1

O3

PM2.5

NO2

Decreasing peak trend

No trendPM2.5 concentrations are strongly wildfire dependant

Decreasing trend

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AQM Forecast Approach

• Two AQM Systems are operational at the Canadian Meteorological Centre

– RAQDPS - (Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System) – FireWork (April-October) - identical to the RAQDPS with added near-real-time

wildfire emissions

• Systems are run twice per day to produce 48h forecast

• No chemical analysis. Initial chemical conditions are taken from the previous 12h forecast.

• Emissions– Anthropogenic and biogenic– Defined with hourly/weekly/monthly profiles

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/

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GEM-MACH - Operational AQ Model• The kernel of both AQ systems

(RAQDPS and FireWork ) is GEM-MACH, ECCC's operational AQ model. Here are some essential characteristics:

– limited-area (LAM) configuration

– Meteorology provided by the GEM model (initial and boundary conditions)

– 10-km horizontal grid spacing, 80 vertical levels to 0.1 hPa

– One-way coupling (meteorology affects chemistry)

– 2-bin sectional representation of PM size distribution (i.e., 0-2.5 μm and 2.5-10 μm) with 8 chemical PM components

– Full process representation of oxidant and aerosol chemistry: gas-, aqueous- &

heterogeneous chemistrymechanisms

aerosol dynamics dry and wet deposition

(including in- and below-cloud scavenging)

GEM-MACH Grid

GEM-LAM10 Grid

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RAQDPS Components: UMOS-AQOperational statistical AQ post-processing

At the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) UpdateableModel Output Statistics (UMOS) is applied as a statisticalpost-processing (SPP)system for weather- and AQ-relatedpredictands.

– SPP can compensate for models’ inherent systematic errors– SPP takes into account scales and phenomena not yet resolved

by dynamical models– SPP can be a very helpful tool for operational ECCC AQ

forecasters

At the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Updateable ModelOutput Statistics (UMOS) is applied as a statistical post-processing(SPP) system for weather- and AQ-related predictands.

– SPP can compensate for models’ inherent systematic errors– SPP takes into account scales and phenomena not yet resolved by dynamical models– SPP can be a very helpful tool for operational ECCC AQ forecasters

Useful tool for urban AQ forecasting.UMOS-AQ sharpens the model forecast, as it

does not fully represent the city.

http://www.canada.com/health

Page 7 – May-22-17

RAQDPS Components: UMOS-AQOperational statistical AQ post-processing

Vancouver

VANCOUVER

A sufficient number of AQ stations in large urban centres improves the post-processing of modelled pollution

(Con't)

NO2

AQ Station

Toronto

PM2.5

TORONTO

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RAQDPS Component: Objective Analysis (OA) for Surface Pollutants

• OA for RAQDPS: Operational since 2013

• Blends model forecasts with surface observations

– Uses an optimal interpolation approach

• Products available hourly (early and late analyses):

• Available for : PM2.5, O3, NO2, NO, SO2, PM10 and AQHI

************************************• OA for FireWork: Operational

since 2016• Same approach as for RAQDPS

– available for PM2.5 and PM10– Very useful tool for long-range

wildfire pollution advection

FORECAST OA

Early analysis: Late analysis: available after 65 min available after 125 min

GEM-MACH OA

Analysis Increments Observations

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Other RAQDPS Components• AQHI forecasts

– Growing number of AQHI stations and sites– Alternative AQHI (taking into account other pollutants such as: SO2, CO, H2S,

and TRS) is used /under development for certain regions

• Verification– Regular day to day, monthly, seasonal and annual– Other AQ models (like CMAQ) are included

Over 2010-2017 period, statistics were improved for O3and NO2.

PM2.5 performance is strongly dependant on wildfire occurrences.

For more information about the Canadian AQ systems performance, please see poster Pavlovic et al.

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FireWork: AQ system with near-real-time wildfire emissions

FireWork (during wildfire season only) is identical to the RAQDPS except with near-real-time wildfire emissions added

WildFire Emissions

• System runs twice daily (initiated at 00 UTC and 12 UTC)

• FireWork products Hourly PM forecast from fire sources Results available to the public:

https://weather.gc.ca/firework Specific FireWork products and analysis can be

provided upon request to Federal and Provincial Government Agencies, partners, etc.

FireWork is an essential tool to forecast the regional distribution of wildfire smoke

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FireWork in 2016The 2016 wildfire season was marked by the Fort McMurray wildfires that occurred in Alberta’s oil sands production area. The fire burnt 590,000 hectares through the city of Fort McMurray, and more than 80,000 people were evacuated.

GOES satellite image showing the area affected by wildfire smoke, analysed by operational Canadian Meteorological Centre forecasters, valid for May 18th 2016 13:30UTC

Forest fire emissions contribution to the total column PM2.5valid at 2014-07-25 13UTC, forecasted by the 2014-07-24 12UTC run. The region affected by dense smoke was forecasted 24h in advance.

OBSERVED FORECASTED

In support to the federal emergency response organisation, in May 2016, the CMC performed different wildfire pollution analyses on a daily basis

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Wildfire Pollution Modeling- extent of population exposure to pollution

Percentage of Canadian population exposed to forecasted wildfire pollution above given thresholds during wildfire season (May-Sept)

%

2014 (May-Sept): The percentage of hours with forecasted PM2.5 wildfire emission contribution to total surface PM2.5 concentrations above 1µg/m3

For most Canadians, wildland fire smoke contributes a small but significant fraction of air pollution during the summer

More information about FireWork can be found at: Pavlovic et al., 2016, J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc., 66, 819-841, DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2016.1158214.

FireWork web page: https://weather.gc.ca/firework/index_e.html

FireWork forecast and product explanations: Canadian Wildland Fire & Smoke Newsletter, 2016, p18-29: https://sites.ualberta.ca/~wcwfs/CWFSN/newsletters/CWFSN_Fall_2016.pdf

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Heat emitted from surface

Heat accumulated in materials

Heat emitted from surface

Evaporation by vegetation

Heat emitted from surface

Heat released by materials

Anthropogenic Heat

Anthropogenic Heat

Urban Rural- Has been added to both GEM and GEM-

MACH code

- Surface energy, water and momentum balance depends on land use type

- Impacts on Urban heat island, Air Quality, Public health and comfort

- Heterogeneous environments have significant variability at the urban scale

Example of variability in the urban fabric of a large city (New York) (Source: NRCNA, 2012)

• Developed at Meteo-France (Masson 2000)

• Imported into GEM and GEM-Surf during the CRTI projects (Lemonsu, 2005-2007)

• Further improved and tested since by Leroyer

• Multi-layer version also available (Husain)

“Street canyon

Urban AQ ModellingThe Town Energy Balance (TEB): An urban surface parametrisation

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Urban AQ ModellingExperimental, Integrated Urban Very High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction System with TEB (Town Energy Balance)

• The High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System with 2.5km resolution has been running in experimental mode at the Canadian Meteorological Centre since 2011.

AQ modelling at 2.5kmRAQDPS at 2.5km was run during the 2015 PanAm games

Experimental, Integrated Urban Very High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction System(AQ modelling done at 10km and 2.5km)

(Courtesy of S. Leroyer)(Courtesy of C. Stroud)

(Con't)

Page 15 – May-22-17

Experimental AQ modeling at 2.5 km over western Canada• RAQDPS at 2.5 km- since 2013• FireWork - starting summer 2017

– Already tested over summer 2013

• FireWork was implemented at 2.5 km resolution examining ammonia emissions and chemistry in the vicinity of the Canadian oil sands.

• RDPS 10km weather forecast used to drive HRDPS 2.5 km weather forecast and GEM-MACH10km chemistry forecast –these provide initial and boundary conditions for the 2.5 km GEM-MACH forecast.

Courtesy of : C. Whaley, P.A. Makar, M. Shephard, L. Zhang, J. Zhang, Q. Zheng, A. Akingunola, G. Wentworth, J. Murphy

RAQDPS -10km

RAQDPS -2.5km

Aug-Sept 2013 OS simulations with Firework fire emissions (Average surface NH3 concentrations)

Average fire contribution to surface NH3

Page 16 – May-22-17

Upcoming RAQDPS Improvements

• Extend RAQDPS forecasts from 2 to 3 days

• Upgrade anthropogenic emissions– Current emission inventories: 2010 Can, 2011 USA, 1999

Mexico– New emission inventories: 2013 Can, 2017 (projected) USA,

2008 Mexico

• Upgraded version of the Air Quality objective analysis– Improved statistics– 3D analysis – not limited to surface level

Planned for Fall 2017

Page 17 – May-22-17

Upcoming FireWork Improvements• Replacement of FEPS by CFFEPS – Canadian Forest Fire Emissions

Prediction System– Developed by Canadian Forest Service - Natural Resources Canada– Fire spread and growth modelled using forecasted meteorology – Elliptical fire growth model– Three emission types: flaming / smoldering / residual– Updated emission factors (PM, NO, NMHC, NH3, CO, CO2, CH4 etc.)

Plume injection height based on fire energy thermodynamics

black bodyradiation

Qplume

QradiationQevaporation

Qfuel heating

Fincomplete combustion

dQ/dt

Qsurface heating

Qfire

Energy Balance

Preliminary results

Saskatoon

Page 18 – May-22-17

Upcoming Urban AQ Modelling• Experimental urban AQ Modelling, with incorporated TEB, is planned for

2018

• 2 windows (E/W Canada) are considered

• Objective is to include 3 metropolitan areas Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver where more than a third of the Canadian population (~ 13 million) lives

Urban FractionVancouver

TorontoMontreal

Page 19 – May-22-17

Challenges and Possible Future Directions• Changing emissions: Use projected inventories instead

of retrospective base-year inventories?

• Chemical data assimilation to initialize GEM-MACH?– Some testing already done. Planned for long-term operational

delivery.

• Updated or new AQ process representations

• Improved chemical lateral boundary conditions from global GEM-MACH

Page 20 – May-22-17

Challenges and Possible Future Directions• Benefits of higher-resolution deterministic AQ systems?

- Urban-scale systems and services emerging rapidly

• Statistical Post-Processing of AQ forecasts– How to address extreme values, including extreme AQ events such

as wildfires?

• Ensemble AQ systems?

• Activating AQ feedbacks to meteorology?

(Con't)

Page 21 – May-22-17

THANK YOUMERCI