Canadian Ice Service Long Range Forecasting and CanSISE Tom Carrieres Canadian Ice Service.

Canadian Ice Service Long Range Forecasting and

CanSISE

Tom Carrieres

Canadian Ice Service

– April 10, 2023

Area of Reponsibility

Darlene Langlois

I put in a more recent map showing the Arctic Oean region. One from February would be better.

– April 10, 2023

MET/NAV AREAS

• Canada is providing mariners with weather and ice information for two new METNAV areas

• Russia and Norway have responsibility for the remaining three

• It is important that this information be harmonised

• Large increase in responsibility in both time and geography

– April 10, 2023

Daily charts

ImageAnalyses

Climate Charts

Statistical analysis

Climate products

Iceberg charts

Bulletins / Warnings

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

season / saison

norm

alis

ed ic

e co

vera

ge /

couv

ertu

re d

es g

lace

s no

rmal

isée

Hudson Bay / Baie d`Hudson

short name / nom en bref: HUDBAY

source region / région source: HB / BH

ice season (mmdd) / saison des glaces (mmdd): 0625-0924

averages based upon / les moyennes basées sur: 1971-2000

by / par: CIS / SCG

Canadian Coast Guard Icebreakers

Mariners

Scientists

Media

Public

Northern Communities

Products and Clients

FICN11 CWIS 181450ICEBERG BULLETIN FOR EAST COAST WATERS AND THE STRAIT OF BELLE ISLEAND ITS APPROACHES ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FROM CANADIAN ICESERVICE IN OTTAWA AT 1500 UTC WEDNESDAY 18 OCTOBER 2000.

– April 10, 2023

Why this is important to Canadians:

– April 10, 2023

What does the future hold:

• Arctic shipping season is lengthening– Increased demand for marine weather and ice information

▪ Traditional navigation season earlier in the summer – lasting longer in fall▪ Wider geographic span - Non traditional areas

– Southern winter shipping season is not shortening yet▪ southern & northern services beginning to overlap

– Inter-seasonal variability in both south and north

• Increasing demand due to traffic– Resources, tourism, federal fleets

• METAREA implementation– IMO creation of 5 new MET/NAV AREAS– Year round information required to support the area

• More reliable ice forecast capacity– Longer lead times for seasonal forecasts– Verification– Reliability

• Dependency on satellite data– continuity of existing sources– development of new sensors and applications for improved detection as sea ice conditions change

• Continued and enhanced client engagement– Domestic– International

Darlene Langlois

the level of service still hasn't been decided yet.

– April 10, 2023

CIS Techniques

• Review recent and current conditions– Current ice conditions– Ice thickness reports– Freezing/melting degree days

• CMC/CanSIPS air temperature forecasts

• Identify ice analogs

• Multiple Linear Regression

• Optimal Filter Based techniques

– April 10, 2023

Ice Thicknesses vs Normals (2013)

Station Calculated Thickness (cm)

End of April (1981-2010)

Normal Thickness (cm)

Percentage of normal (%)

Nain 87 106 82

Iqaluit 135 150 90

Inukjuak 122 135 90

Churchill 146 144 101

Hall Beach 165 176 94

Clyde 149 168 89

Resolute 173 187 93

Eureka 204 210 97

Cambridge Bay 179 183 98

Inuvik 163 159 103

– April 10, 2023

End of April ice conditionsfor Hudson Bay

Ice conditions

Departure from normalTotal Concentration

Departure from normalOld ice

Near normal

– April 10, 2023

CMC Forecast Temperature Anomaly

– April 10, 2023

2013 CIS forecast guidance for ice concentration in Hudson Bay

No Model

Above

Below Normal

No Model

Normal

– April 10, 2023

• Ice cover persisted along Labrador Coast longer than normal

• Caused by ice/salinity anomalies propagating around sub-polar North Atlantic?

2013 CIS analyzed ice concentration

– April 10, 2023

red=late----------orange=normal----------green=early

Arctic Events EarliestEvent

LatestEvent

Median

(1981-2010)

Outlook

Labrador Coast to Cape Chidley Area– bergy water 25 Jun 27 Aug 21 Jul 9-11 Jul

Davis Strait to Iqaluit Route– open drift or less 23 Jun

*New**21 Aug* 19 Jul 14-16 Jul

Frobisher Bay Area– bergy water 9 Jul 9 Sep 4 Aug 30 Jul-1 Aug

Davis Strait Area– bergy water 21 Jul 14 Oct 2 Sep 13-15 Aug

Ungava Bay Area– bergy water 2 Jul 1 Sep 31 Jul 14-16 Jul

Davis Strait to Nottingham Island Route– bergy water 29 Jun 5 Sep 25 Jul 8-10 Jul

Hudson Strait Area– bergy water 13 Jul 9 Sep 4 Aug 20-22 Jul

Labrador Coast / Davis Strait / Hudson Strait Outlook

– April 10, 2023



LatestEvent

Median(1981-2010)

Outlook

Baffin Bay Northern Route– open drift or less– bergy water

10 Jun13 Jun

18 Aug15 Sep

13 Jul27 Jul

26-28 Jun6-8 Jul

Baffin Bay Area– bergy water 10 Aug 7 Oct 6 Sep 26-28 Aug

Frobisher Bay to Cape Dyer – open drift or less 24 Jun 15 Sep 25 Jul 22-24 Jul

Frobisher Bay to Home Bay Route– open drift or less 22 Jul 19 Sep 5 Aug 5-7 Aug

Pond Inlet Area– fracture– bergy water

10 Jul25 Jul

19 Aug12 Sep

23 Jul8 Aug

19-21 Jul6-8 Aug

Admiralty Inlet Northern Area– fracture– bergy water

29 Jun17 Jul

7 Aug12 Sep

21 Jul6 Aug

14-16 Jul29-31 Jul

Lancaster Sound Area– fracture 12 Jun 3 Aug 06 Jul Mobile ice

Eastern Arctic Outlook

– April 10, 2023



LatestEvent

Median(1981-2010)

Outlook

Mackenzie Bay Area

– open water 1 Jun 18 Jul 20 Jun 17-19 Jun

Kugmallit Bay Area

– open water 17 Jun 25 Jul 24 Jun 24-26 Jun

Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula Area

– fracture 18 Jun 17 Jul 01 Jul 30 Jun-2 Jul

Mackenzie Bay to Cape Bathurst Route

– open water 18 Jun 27 Sep 26 Jul 21-23 Jul

Mackenzie Bay to Prudhoe Bay Route

– open drift or less 4 Jul 20 Sep 13 Aug 19-21 Jul

Prudhoe Bay to Point Barrow Route

– open drift or less 11 Jul 8 Sep 13 Aug 28-30 Jul

Beaufort Sea Outlook

– April 10, 2023


LatestEvent

Median(1981-2010)

Outlook

Cape Lisburne to Pt Barrow Route

– open drift or less

– open water

10 Jun

2 Jul

8 Sep

19 Sep

06 Aug

14 Aug

18-20 Jul

31 Jul-2 Aug

Amundsen Gulf Area

– fracture

– open water

12 Jun

17 Jul

28 Jul

23 Sep

05 Jul

15 Aug

1-3 Jul

11-13 Aug

Coronation Gulf Area

– fracture

– open water

2 Jul

17 Jul

11 Aug

2 Sep

15 Jul

30 Jul

9-11 Jul

26-28 Jul

Queen Maud Gulf

– fracture 5 Jul 18 Aug 20 Jul 20-22 Jul

Cape Parry to Taloyoak Route

– open water 1 Aug 20 Sep 12 Aug 6-8 Aug

Larsen Sound Area

– fracture 16 Jul 7 Sep 28 Jul 22-24 Jul

Peel Sound Area

– fracture 11 Jul 2 Sep 29 Jul 26-28 Jul

Central Arctic / Alaska Outlook

– April 10, 2023

• Resolution in space and time does not meet CIS requirements

• Rather than providing a monthly average product, it would be useful to have ice extent for the first and second half of the month issued every two weeks (in order to compare with CIS ice climatology normals)

• CanSIPS doesn’t do well for the crucial central CAA during the peak summer season (July-September) - due to coarse resolution?

• it is important for mariners to have a very good forecast in narrow channels around Resolute and for ships coming from Foxe Basin

• CanSIPS should use CIS ice climatology normals to calculate anomalies

CIS Comments on CanSIPS outputs

– April 10, 2023

Suggestions for CanSISE Work

• Determining the skill of CanSIPS forecasts as a function of forecast duration, forecast area and forecast parameter

• How do these forecasts relate to the various forecast parameters included in CIS seasonal forecast products?

• How can CIS make the most effective use of ensemble forecasts?

• What is the impact of initial conditions?

• The narrow channels of the CAA are critical to shipping, how can we use the forecast? How can the forecasts be downscaled to the forecast areas of interest to CIS?

• How can the sea ice forecasts be best presented?

• Are graphical probabilistic maps of use/interest to CIS clients?

– April 10, 2023

Questions?

[email protected]

Canadian Ice Service Long Range Forecasting and CanSISE Tom Carrieres Canadian Ice Service.

Documents

Transcript of Canadian Ice Service Long Range Forecasting and CanSISE Tom Carrieres Canadian Ice Service.