Canadian Hotel Industry Performance · 2015-11-24 · Canadian Hotel Industry Performance Jan D....
Transcript of Canadian Hotel Industry Performance · 2015-11-24 · Canadian Hotel Industry Performance Jan D....
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Canadian Hotel Industry Performance
Jan D. Freitag
Senior Vice President
@jan_freitag [email protected]
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Agenda • Total Canada Review
• Classes
• Segmentation
• Regions / Markets
• Pipeline
• Halifax
• AirBnB
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The Center of the Hotel Industry Benchmarking Universe:
Hendersonville, TN
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• The recognized leader in hotel benchmarking
• Founded 1985
• 100% Market Penetration
• Impartial, timely, confidential
STR - who
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Supply (rooms available)
Demand (rooms sold)
Revenue (rooms revenue)
OCC ADR RevPAR
STR - what
• Percent Change • By Geography and Comp Set
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www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Data Presentations”
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Total Canada Review
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YTD October 2015: Healthy Room Rate Growth
% Change 7.4k hotels / 434k rooms • Room Supply 130mm 1.0% • Room Demand 87mm 0.6% • Occupancy 66.5% -0.5% • A.D.R. ($Can) $145 4.8% • RevPAR $96 4.5% • Room Revenue $12.6bn 5.3%
October 2015 YTD, Total CAN Results
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Demand Growth Rates Slow. Supply An Issue Now?
-5.8 -6.9
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
Total Canada., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/2002 – 10/2015
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ADR Growth Taking Off. Occupancy Growth Easing.
-3.4
-5.1
4.5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Occ % Change ADR % Change
Total Canada., ADR & OCC % Change, 12 MMA 1/2002 – 10/2015
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RevPAR Growth: Smooth Sailing For The Next 18 Months (?)
-9.5 -12.4
-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
10
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Total Canada., RevPAR % Change, 12MMA, 1/2002 – 10/2015
62 Months 55 Months
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RevPAR Growth: What’s In Store For PM Trudeau?
-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
10
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Total Canada., RevPAR % Change, 12MMA, 1/2002 – 10/2015
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Where are we in the lodging cycle?
The 2nd Half
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Class Review
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Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale
Four Seasons Hilton Courtyard
Ritz Carlton Marriott Hyatt Place
Fairmont Delta Crown Plaza
St. Regis Gaylord Four Points
Upper Midscale Midscale
Hampton Inn Best Western
Comfort Suites Ramada
Fairfield In Red Lion
Holiday Inn La Quinta
Select Brands by STR Class
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Strong Demand Growth (ex. Midscale). Upscale Supply Increases
0.0
1.7
3.0 2.5
-0.3
0.7
2.7
3.7
1.9
-2.9
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale
Supply % Change Demand % Change
*Supply / Demand % Change, by Class, October 2015 YTD
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Class RevPAR Composition: ADR Driven
0.7 1.0 0.6 -0.5
-2.7
8.7
5.8
4.1 3.3
0.9
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale
ADR % Change Occupancy % Change
*RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Class, October 2015 YTD
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Classes: Absolute OCC Very Healthy On The Upper End
69.8
72.8 71.5
67.1
61.8
69.3
72.1 71.1
67.4
63.5
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale
2015 2014
*OCC %, by Class, October YTD 2015 & 2014
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Classes: Absolut ADR Increases Sharply At Upper End
$263
$178
$142
$123 $113
$242
$168
$136 $119
$112
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale
2015 2014
*ADR $CAN by Class, October YTD 2015 & 2014
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Luxury / Upper Upscale Segmentation
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YTD September 2015: High End Performs Very Well
% Change 385 hotels / 74k rooms • Room Supply 1.2% • Room Demand 2.0% • Occupancy 71.7% 0.8% • A.D.R. ($Can) $201 6.7% • RevPAR $144 7.5%
Canada Luxury & Upper Upscale Class, September 2015 YTD
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The Time For Transient ADR Growth Is Now
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb-15
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Transient Demand and ADR CAN$, % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 09/2015
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Group Demand Growth Slows As Hotels Are Full
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Group Demand and ADR CAN$, % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 09/2015
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Regions / Markets
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Provinces With Varied Performance Province Occupancy ADR $CAN RevPAR %
Change Alberta 62.1 152.37 -8.5
British Columbia 69.8 160.21 14.6 Manitoba 64.5 118.33 3.9
New Brunswick 58.8 116.55 3.9 Newfoundland and Labrador 68.1 149.79 -6.1
Nova Scotia 66.2 127.29 4.7 Ontario 68.1 138.22 7.8
Prince Edward Island 59.6 135.79 6.0
Quebec 69.3 151.16 6.7 Saskatchewan 60.2 131.34 -8.8 Yukon Territory 71.3 122.47 8.8
* October 2015 YTD Occ%, ADR $, RevPAR % Change, by Province
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RevPAR by Province: All Even (Except PE Island)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015
New Brusnwick NFL / Labrador
PE Island Nova Scotia
*Group Demand and ADR CAN$, % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 09/2015
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September 2015 YTD: High Occupancy = Pricing Power
Market OCC % ADR % Change RevPAR $CAN Montreal 72.3 155.36 8.1 Ottawa 74.5 151.22 9.6 Toronto 73.8 155.54 7.5
Vancouver 77.3 168.43 18.8
Halifax, NS 68.4 131.53 5.0
* October 2015 YTD Occ%, ADR $, RevPAR % Change in Major Metros
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FX Impact: Canada Is A Deal
24.4%
7.0% 7.0%
-7.9% Boston Toronto
$CAN USD
* ADR % Change, NYC & Toronto, in local currency, October 2015 YTD
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Pipeline
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CAN Pipeline: Construction Today Will Impact 2016 / 2017
Phase 2015 2014 % Change
In Construction 9.3 9.1 0.4%
Final Planning 5 4.8 3.3%
Planning 8 10.1 -19.4%
Under Contract 22 24 -7.3%
*Total CAN Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, October 2015 and 2014
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Limited Service Construction Has Been Strong For 2 Years
0.7
1.2
2.8
3.6
0.1
0.9
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
*CAN Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, October 2015
69%
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Halifax, NS Area Performance
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Halifax: Not Much Pricing Power
% Change 49 hotels / 5.8k rooms • Room Supply 2.5% • Room Demand 4.7% • Occupancy 68.4% 2.2% • A.D.R. ($Can) $131 2.8% • RevPAR $90 5.0%
Halifax KPIs, October 2015 YTD
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Halifax Rooms Sold: 2015 A Banner Year
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
January March May July September November
2009 2014 2015
*Halifax Demand, by Month, 2009, 2014, 2015
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Halifax Occupancy: August hit 87%
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
January March May July September November
2009 2014 2015
*Halifax Occupancy %, by Month, 2009, 2014, 2015
%
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Halifax ADR: Good Increases
100
110
120
130
140
150
January March May July September November
2009 2014 2015
*Halifax ADR (CAN$), by Month, 2009, 2014, 2015
$
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Halifax ADR in US$: Halifax Is A Bargain For US Travelers
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
January March May July September November
2009 2014 2015
*Halifax ADR (US$), by Month, 2009, 2014, 2015
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Halifax Pipeline
Project Name Address City Room Count
Hilton Garden Inn Halifax City Center Hollis St & Sackville St Halifax 130
Unnamed Hotel 1721 Lower Water
Street Halifax 250
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Airbnb
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42 https://www.airbnb.com/business-travel-ready
Targeting Business Travelers with Listings and…
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….A (de Facto) Frequent Stay Program
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Certification in Hotel Industry Analytics (CHIA) STR and AHLEI have partnered to launch the Certification in Hotel Industry Analytics for a variety of industry professionals.
• There are four core content areas: o Hotel Industry Foundations o Hotel Math Fundamentals – the metrics used by the hotel
industry o Property Level Benchmarking (STAR Reports) o Hotel Industry Performance Reports
• One or two-day CHIA workshops are available • To find out more please contact CAN at [email protected]
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