2017-02-16

1

Canadian Beef Industry of the Future

FarmSmart Agricultural ConferenceJanuary 21, 2017

Tim McAllisterAgriculture and Agri-Food Canada Lethbridge Research & Development Centre

The Footprint / Perception Challenge

2017-02-16

2

Support of special interests:

• Exaggerated outcomes

• Narrow in scope

Not without some merit:

• Know the facts from fiction

• Understand the dynamics and inter-relationships

• Empower the public to make informed decisions

Understanding the message

• 68,500 beef farms

• Valued at $33 billion to the economy

• 5th largest beef exporter globally

• 1.41 million tonnes of beef produced in 2014

• As the world population increases so does the global demand for meat

The importance of beef in Canada

2017-02-16

3

• Within the beef industry

• Beef industry and technology developers

• Beef industry and beef consumers

• Beef industry and the public including vegetarians and vegans

Who needs to be informed?

2017-02-16

4

Cow-calf

Calf born in spring and left to pasture with motherCalves weaned at 7 months

2

Canadian beef – a complex production system

Cows rebred in summer; following weaning go to winter

pasture, seasonal feeding

31

FinishingBackgrounding

+Finishing

Backgrounding

Finishing

Calf-fedBackgrounder Yearling-fed

Cropland

Calf slaughtered ˜16 months

Calf slaughtered ˜18 months

Adapted from Legesse et al (2016)

Calf slaughtered ˜20 months

Processor

SafeScience-based regulatory oversightAffordableAcceptable to consumers

2017-02-16

5

Global carbon budget

The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870

Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;

Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

Agricultural emissions are increasing, but net

forestry CO2 emissions have fallen recently

• AFOLU accounts for 24% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions

• AFOLU is the only sector where net emissions fell in the most recent decade

• Whilst agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions increased, net CO2

emissions fell, mainly due to decreasing deforestation, and increased afforestation rates

Smith et al. (2014) – IPCC WGIII AR5

2017-02-16

6

Emission intensity of AFOLU products is falling as

agriculture and forestry become more efficient

• Note that ruminant meat has a GHG intensity much higher thanother agricultural products.

• But also note that these are direct emissions only. If we include the emissions from the human-edible feed for mono-gastric animal products, they move closer to ruminant meat.

Smith et al. (2014) – IPCC WGIII AR5

85%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

1981 2011

• Beef produced in Canada today produces 15% smaller carbon footprint

What we found

Legesse et al (2016)

2017-02-16

7

How do we stack up?

Legesse et al (2016)

2017-02-16

8

Carbon residence time in soils

2017-02-16

9

Impact of grazing intensity on root

development Weaver 1950

LL M H

Manure – large & long-lasting effects

Rothamsted Hoosfield – Jenkinson 1998

2017-02-16

10

Saturation – the time course of

Carbon sequestration

Smith 2004

2017-02-16

11

Water use in beef production

(cradle-to-farm gate)

2017-02-16

12

Type of water useCow-calf Stocker Feedlot

---- L/LB carcass weight ----

Drinking water consumed 26.3 4.5 6.6

Non-precipitation water use 256 120 491

*From representative cow–calf, stocker, and feedlot operations in Kansas,

Oklahoma and Texas.

Source: Rotz et al. (2015; J. Anim. Sci. 2015.93 :2509–2519).

Water use from beef operations in

3 States of USA*

2017-02-16

13

Contribution to biodiversity • Tall-grass prairie (1-4%)• Short-grass prairie (45%)• Alberta- grasslands (43%) • Wetlands

Birds• Sage Grouse• Prairie song birds

Mammals• Black footed ferret• Swift fox

Plants• Short and Tall prairie grasses

Cow-calf and Backgrounding

onNatural and Tame

Pasture

Backgrounding and Finishing

in Feedlots

Feed (silage/grain) production

on Croplands

Beef Production and Ecosystem Services

Climate regulation

Soil quality regulation

Soil erosion regulation

Water quality regulation

Forage production

Disease regulation

Aesthetic value

(Agro-)Tourism and recreation

Cultural heritage

Air quality regulation

Invasive spp./brush regulation

Insect pest regulation

Livestock

Water supply

Habitat quality and biodiversity

Pasture management

Drug and pesticide use

Manure storage and handling

Invasive spp./brush management

grazing, chemical or mechanical

Natural area maintenance and protection

Fertiliser application

Feeding strategy

Tillage regime

Irrigation regime

2017-02-16

14

How will food demand be met in future?

Smith (2014b)

Gerbens-Leenes et al. 2013. Water Resources and Industry 1: 25-36

Industrial

Mixed

Grazing

Poultry Pork Beef

Fee

d c

on

vers

ion

eff

icie

ncy

(kg

fee

d D

M/k

g m

eat)

Feed conversion efficiency

Wheat – 30.5 million tonnes – 4.5 million tonnes goes to feedBarley – 8.7 million tonnes – 7 million tonnes goes to feed

2017-02-16

15

Industrial

Mixed

Grazing

Poultry Pork Beef

Co

nce

ntr

ate

feed

in t

ota

l fee

d (

%)

Grain consumption

Wheat – 30.5 million tonnes – 4.5 million tonnes goes to feedBarley – 8.7 million tonnes – 7 million tonnes goes to feed

Gerbens-Leenes et al. 2013. Water Resources and Industry 1: 25-36

2017-02-16

16

• Future Growth:

– Free trade agreements:

• NAFTA, CETA, TTP

• China???

– Increased global demand for meat products in Asian markets

Other Drivers of Change

2017-02-16

17

Global climate is warming (IPCC 5th assessment)

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

18

80

19

00

19

20

19

40

19

60

19

80

20

00

Tem

pera

ture

An

om

aly

(D

eg

rees C

) co

mp

are

d t

o 2

0th

Cen

tury

avera

ge

Global Temperature (from NOAA)

2016 warmest year on record!

Ontarian average annual temperature increase 1.4°C over 60 years,

2.5 to 3.7°C by 2050, 2014, 15, 16 record years

In Western

Canada, most

of the

warming has

been in winter (1950-2010)

Minimum air temperature trends,

Vincent et al. 2012, J Geophys Res 117: D18110

Also less snowfall

2017-02-16

18

Climate Trends impact on Beef Industry

• Prairie production limited by heat and water

• Increase in growing season

– Higher yields, more carbon capture.

– Crop types migrate North.

• Greater year-to-year variability masks long-term trends

• Areas of water surplus – areas of water shortages.

Ominski (2016)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

198

3

198

5

198

7

198

9

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

200

9

201

1

201

3

Pa

id L

os

se

s in

CA

D (

Billi

on

s)

Year of Paid Loss

Adj 2011* Actual

Canadian catastrophic paid losses over time

Other Impacts

2017-02-16

19

Increase in the Use of Winter Grazing in Canada

Ratio of numbers of cows grazing in winter versus the numbers grazing in

summer by region in 2006 and 2012.

Atlantic East Boreal Shield Prairies

• Crops such as barley and canola will still dominate

• Opportunities for warmer crops and specialty crops (soybean, corn)

• Sorghum, millet

• Impact of breeding and technology?

Impact on Feed Supply

2017-02-16

20

Impact on Pests

• Pests = weeds, fungi, bacteria,

insects

• Increase in overwintering?

• More rapid summer development

and more generations?

• Other factors: increased global trade,

resistance to

pesticides/anthelmintics

• Increased vigilance

• New vaccination strategies?

Photo: C. Rawluk

/

• Anaplasmosis is a disease caused by a parasite (Anaplasmamarginale) of red blood cells

• Ticks can transmit the disease from animal-to-animal

Photo: R. Currie

Pests - Anaplasmosis

2017-02-16

21

Anaplasmosis in Canada (1968-2011)

BCRC funded project: Shaun Dergousoff, Tim Lysyk, Neil Chilton and Kateryn Rochon

Wild cards

2017-02-16

22

“We envision a world in which all aspects of the

beef value chain are environmentally sound,

socially responsible and economically viable."

"The GRSB mission is to advance continuous

improvement in sustainability of the global beef

value chain through leadership, science and multi-

stakeholder engagement and collaboration."

Interest in the Footprint

2017-02-16

23

• Knowledgeable, informed citizens

• Analytical and critical thinkers

• Visionary leaders

– Engage stakeholders

– Instill public trust

– Support policies for

successful adaptation

Tools for Successful Adaptation

Education

• The future of our industry includes change: climate, technology, social & “wild cards”

• The industry has demonstrated its capacity for adaptation

• Education, innovation and sound policy are key to successful adaptation for the future

Last Thoughts

2017-02-16

24

Contributing scientists

environmental footprint

G. Legesse, K. Beauchemin, K. Ominski, E. McGeough, R.

Kroebel, D. MacDonald, S. Little & T. McAllister

Principal Investigator

We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the

Beef Cattle Research Council and Agriculture and Agri-

Food Canada through the Beef Cluster Project.

Acknowledgements

Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity

Sarah Pogue

Aklilu Alemu

Karen Beauchemin

Jim Byrne

Dan Farr

Henry Janzen

Roland Kroebel

Shannan Little

Danielle Maia de Souza

Myra Martel

Candace Vanin

2017-02-16

25

The McAllister Research Team

2016

Thank youQuestions?

2017-02-16

26

Energy consumption by energy type - China

Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2014, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2010 to 2014 for China

Source: BP 2015; Jackson et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015