Can we provide thermodynamic constraints for the long-term coupled evolution of the economy and the...
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Transcript of Can we provide thermodynamic constraints for the long-term coupled evolution of the economy and the...
Can we provide thermodynamic constraints for the long-term coupled
evolution of the economy and the atmosphere?
Tim Garrett
University of Utah
SRES Emissions Scenarios out to 2100C
O2 E
mis
sion
s
2100
All scenarios are considered equally probable
Range of possible futures depends as much on societal trajectories as climate physics
Atm
osph
eric
CO
2 P
ertu
rbat
ion
(ppm
v)
But historically, the problem looks tightly constrained…
R2=0.90
Cullenward et al. 2011Climatic Change
xkcd
.com
Available potential energy density
Material andenergetic flow
The atmosphere is an open thermodynamic system
sunlight
atmosphere
dissipation to space
Available potential energy density
Material andenergetic flow
…so is the global economy
fuel
civilization
dissipation to space
A child grows because it dissipates less energy than it consumesEnergy efficient consumption is central to a positive feedback driving growth
Wealth ($)
Wealth is a fiscal measure of our capacity to enable the consumptive flow of primary (potential) energy. This flow enables all civilization activities.
The convergence of energetic and material flows is what we fiscally quantify as the real GDP. By growing civilization, convergence grows our capacity to consume by expanding access to new energy reservoirs. This is what we implicitly value as economic production or the GDP.
POSITIVE FEEDBACK
GDP ($/yr)
fuel
civilization
dissipation to space
• Energy consumption rate is global economic wealth• Wealth is an accumulation of past real economic
production. The GDP is a convergence of flows.• Key point: is hypothesized to be a constant coefficient:
the power of money• Hypothesis is testable and falsifiable
Current rate of energy consumption Wealth
Power of money constant
Past world real GDP
Hypothesis evaluation
C = Global Wealtha = Global energy consumption ratea/C = Power per dollar
Inflation-adjusted wealth is an implicit measure of the rate of energy consumption by civilization
= 9.7 ± 0.3 mW per 1990 US dollar
IPCC: “Future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the product of very complex dynamic systems, determined by driving forces such as demographic development, socio-economic development, and technological change. Their future evolution is highly uncertain.”
non-SRES global CO2 Emissions Identity
Current rate of energy consumption Wealth
Power of money constant
Past world real GDP
non-SRES global CO2 Emissions Identity
carbonization of energy supply
wealth of civ.
Emissions
Energy consumption rates
• Without decarbonizing, emissions cannot be reduced without destruction of global wealth
• Current wealth is tied to the past history of real GDP, which cannot be destroyed
Past real GDP
CThERM Multi-decadal coupled hindcasts
Gro
ss W
orld
Pro
duct
(t
rillio
ns
199
0 $
/yr)
Hindcast initialized with current state in 1985Dashed: observationsColor: hindcasts
Car
bon
Dio
xide
Con
cent
ratio
ns
Initialization
Forecasts to 2100 No switch from fossil fuels
3.7 - 8.3 ºC
1.9 - 4.4 ºCSRES Models get an unphysically high GDP per [CO2] because they assume that energy consumption can be decoupled from the economy through efficiency gains
Civ
iliza
tion
dive
rgen
ce
Conclusions
• Civilization’s future is tied to its past consumption.• Wealth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions are
coupled through a constant• Energy efficiency gains accelerate growth of wealth
and CO2 emissions• The negative feedback on emissions and wealth is
resource depletion and environmental disasters.• Shouldn’t SRES models appeal foremost to physics if
they are to be coupled to GCMs?