CAN WE OVERCOME COMPLEXITYWITH ANTICIPATION FOR

CLIMATE COMPATIBLE GOVERNANCE?

Joni Karjalainen and Juho Ruotsalainen

Project researcher, University of Turku, Finland Futures Research CentreVisiting Fellow, University of Sussex, SPRU

Futures of A Complex World25th Anniversary Conference

Turku, FinlandJune 12-13, 2017

www.neocarbonenergy.fi/impacts/

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

1) Climate change and energy systems change– Why and how is our decision-making getting shaped?

2) Thinking of new models of governance– What role is governance assumed to take?– What lenses could complexity and anticipation provide us?

3) Putting the theory into practice– Could we empirically study actual policies (or policy mixes)?

www.neocarbonenergy.fi

CLIMATE CHANGE ANDENERGY TRANSFORMATION

Ecology must be ‘internalized’…• Climate change concern (IPCC 2014), carbon risk,

fear of stranded investments, panetary boundaries(Rockström et al. 2009; Steffen et al. 2015)

• Global carbon budget (Le Quéré et al. 2016),• Transformative pathways for sustainability

(Leach et al. 2007; 2012)

…so energy systems are changing…• Low-carbon solutions: uptake of decentralized solar and

wind energy technologies• Weather data on a milli-second level to be used in

‘’smart’ systems

…what about management systems andgovernance?

IPCC (2014), Climate Change 2014: Approved Summary for Policy-makers (1 Nov 2014), IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental Panel forClimate ChangeLeach et al., 2007a Pathways to Sustainability: An Overview of the STEPS Centre Approach, STEPS Approach Paper, STEPS Centre, Brighton (2007)Leach et al., 2012, Transforming innovation for sustainability Ecol. Soc., 17 (2) (2012), p. 11 http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-04933-170211Le Quere C et al. (2016) Global Carbon Budget 2016. Earth System Science Data, 8:605-649. doi:10.5194/essd-8-605-2016. http://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/8/605/2016/essd-8-605-2016.pdfRaworth, 2012 A safe and just space for humanity: can we live within the doughnut? Oxfam Discussion Paper (2012) [online]URL: http://www.oxfam.org/en/grow/policy/safe-and-just-space-humanity

Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU)Global trends in climate change legislation and litigation (2017 Update)

http://www.ipu.org/pdf/publications/global.pdf

There are now over 1,200 climatechange or climate change-related

laws worldwide and that low-income countries are increasingly

engaged in the enforcement ofclimate change legislation, most

notably on climate resilience.(…)

A twenty-fold increase over 20years when compared with 1997

when there were just 60 such lawsin place.

Andersson C. et al. (2014) Societal systems – Complex or worse? Futures 63, pp. 145–157

• Simple• Complicated• Complex• Wicked

PROMISE OF NEW MODES OF GOVERNANCE

Power and constantchange are crucial elements

of organizational life(Burnes 2005)

Inspiring peoplefrom the bottom-up(Beard 2003)

Overcoming the silo effect(Lyall & Tait 2005)

Planning ascommunicative

rationality(Innes etal. 2007)

• Multi-level governance (Hooghe & Marks, 2001; Marquardt 2017)• Deliberative ” (Dryzek, 2012; Hendriks, 2009)• Adaptive ” (Chaffin, 2014; Hurlbert & Gupta, 2016)• Reflexive ” (Voß et al., 2011)• Hybrid ” (Bello 1997; Colona & Jaffe, 2016)• Anticipatory ” (Barben et al. 2008; Guston, 2014)

EMERGING GOVERNANCE APPROACHES

• Does it entail engagement? (Y/N)• Are they forward-oriented? (Y/N)• Does it address complexity? (Y/N)• Do they recognize power? (Y/N)• Are they transformative? (Y/N)• Is it climate compatible? (Y/N) ?

• Anticipation = a process (or behaviour) that not only depends onpast and present but also on predictions, expectations, beliefs ofthe future

• Anticipatory governance is motivated by risk and uncertaintybeyond conventional risk assessment

• Can be distinguished from Alvin Toffler’s notion of anticipatorydemocracy (Guston, 2016):• 1) people are able to actively shape technology

rather than become shaped by it;• 2) forecasting, linear and predictive models are (too)

unreliable to be trusted; and• 3) rather than experts alone, broader groups of people can

self-consciously reflect on the values that go into technology

ANTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE

ANTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE

• Bring forward engagement, with a whole-of-government(governance) approach to complex issues, to be cultivated as asystemic culture (Fuerth, 2009).

• In the context of emerging technologies, means how research,development, application and use of a technology are developed andsteered, between adapting to a coming revolution and haltingdevelopment (Barben, Fisher, Selin, & Guston, 2008).

• Products of science and technology do not appear magically, theyappear in the hands of people (Sarewitz, 2011) throughtechnoscientific imaginaries (Wiek, Foley, & Guston, 2012).

ANTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE

Does itinvolveengagement?(Y/N)

Is itforward-oriented?(Y/N)

Does itaddresscomplexity?(Y/N)

Does itrecognizepower?(Y/N)

Is it interestedin beingtransformative?(Y/N)

Is itclimatecompatible?(Y/N)

Yes.

But practicalmodes ofparticipationvary.

Yes.

Foresight is acomponent.However, isthere a cleardefinition onthis – how arealternativefuturesstudied?

Maybe.

Anticipation is’inspired’ bycomplexity.Does notseem toalways thinkof otheremerging orconvergingtechnologicalareas.

Maybe not.

At least notexplicitly.

Governanceasmanagerialpractices.

Maybe not.

More reactive toemergingtechnologies,rather thannormatively’radical’(or STI 3.0).

Not (yet).

Should benefit ofa more clearconnection withforesight, and aconciseexploration ofsustainability.

• Anticipatory governance has been used to study the implications ofemerging technologies (nanotechnologies, geoengineering, syntheticbiology)

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• Global: International climate change agreement

• National/Regional: Climate change targets, legislation, policies

• National/Sectoral: Energy policies

• Feed-in-tariffs (FiT)

• Auction schemes for renewable energy (Baker et al. 2014)

• National/Sectoral: Transport policies, et cetera

• National/Sectoral: Science, Technology, Innovation (STI) policy(Steinmüller and Schot 2016)

• Local: Urban initiatives and local governance targets

CAN WE EVALUATE POLICIESAS EMPIRICAL MATERIAL?

Policy analysis is a “systematicevaluation of the technical andpolitical implications ofalternatives proposed to solvepublic problems”

So what?à Interplay of different forcesà Should we shape policy

analysis to betteraddress complexity?(Dennard et al., 2008)

à Think of policy mixes?(Kivimaa and Kern, 2016)

CONCLUSIONS

www.neocarbonenergy.fi

• Emerging governance theories, as analyticallenses, aim to overcome past theory limitations.These theories have potentially overlapping areas.

• Legislation and policy-making are typically behindinnovation. Governance theories, too, struggle with thelong-term: transformation, complexity, surprises

• Anticipatory governance is used to study emergingtechnologies. Nevertheless, transformation, technologicalconvergence, climate change, or power are not addressed explicitly.

• What does this mean for the ‘directionality’ of energy transitions? Alternativefutures could deserve further attention in governance theory and policyanalysis (e.g. in light of off-grid solutions and energy prosumerism)

Joni Karjalainenjoni.karjalainen@utu.fi

Project researcher, University of Turku, Finland Futures Research CentreVisiting Fellow, University of Sussex, SPRUresearchgate.net/profile/Joni_Karjalainen

Twitter: @jonikarjalainenhttps://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/Pages/neo-fore.aspx

www.neocarbonenergy.fi/impacts/

Thank you!

Breyer, Christian & Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2017). New Consciousness: A societal andenergetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet Earth. Technological Forecasting &Social Change, 114, 7–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.029

Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni – Helle, Aino & Nisula, Sakari (2017) Argentinian Energy Landscapes.Case Study of the Neo-Carbon Energy Project. FFRC eBOOK 12/2016. Finland Futures Research Centre,University of Turku. 84 p. ISBN 978-952-249-469-6, ISSN 1797-1322http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook_12-2016.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka, Matti Minkkinen, Joni Karjalainen and Sohail Inayatullah (2016), Testing transformativeenergy scenarios through causal layered analysis gaming, in Technological Forecasting and Social Change(Published online), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.011

Juho Ruotsalainen, Sirkka Heinonen, Joni Karjalainen and Marjukka Parkkinen (2016), Peer-to-peer work inthe digital meaning society 2050, European Journal for Futures Research 4:10, Dec 2016,https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-016-0092-2 Open access link: http://paperity.org/p/78129453/peer-to-peer-work-in-the-digital-meaning-society-2050

Ruotsalainen, Juho – Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni – Parkkinen, Marjukka – Laurén, Leena-Maija &Salminen, Hazel (2016) The Fuzzy Futures of Neo-Carbon Work. Neo-Carbon Futures Clinique II. FFRC eBOOK11/2016. Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku. 72 p. ISBN 978-952-249-468-9, ISSN 1797-1322.http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_11-2016.pdf

Lang, Merja – Karjalainen, Joni & Heinonen, Sirkka (2016) Glocal Insights to Neo-Carbon Energy and ItsForerunners. NEO-CARBON ENERGY WP1 Working Paper 4/2016. Finland Futures Research Centre, ISBN 978-952-249-429-0, 112 p. www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-4-2016.pdf

REFERENCES

Salovaara, Kaisa, Makkonen, Mari, Gore, Olga & Honkapuro, Samuli (2016) Electricity Markets Framework inNeo-Carbon Energy 2050 Scenarios. Neo-Carbon Energy WP1 Working Paper 3/2016. LappeenrantaUniversity of Technology: Lappeenrantahttp://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-3-2016.pdf

Similä, Lassi & Koljonen, Tiina. (2016). Towards actor-based Neo-Carbon scenarios. Neo-Carbon Energy WP1Working Paper 2/2016. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland: Espoohttp://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-2-2016.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2016) Radical Transformation in a DistributedSociety - Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050. Neo-Carbon Energy WP1 Working Paper 1/2016. University ofTurku: Finland Futures Research Centrehttp://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-1-2016.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni and Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). Towards the Third Industrial Revolution.Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique I. eBook 6/2015. Finland Futures Research Centre, 74 p.http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook-6-2015.pdf

Sirkka Heinonen & Nick Balcom Raleigh (eds.) (2015), Neo-Carbon Energy At “Futures Studies TacklingWicked Problems” International Conference Turku, Finland – June 11 & 12, 2015. WP1 Working Paper 2/2015http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-2-2015.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni – Ruotsalainen, Juho & Parkkinen, Marjukka (2015) Neo-Carbon CoreConcepts in Exploring Transformative Energy Futures 2050, NEO-CARBON ENERGY WP1 Working Paper1/2015 http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/tutkimus/hankkeet/Documents/NeoCarbon-WP1-1-2015.pdf

More information:https://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/Pages/neo-fore.aspxwww.neocarbonenergy.fi/impacts/

REFERENCES

NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategic research openingsand the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of

Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT andUniversity of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC.

www.neocarbonenergy.fi/impacts

Joni KarjalainenProject researcher

University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centrejoni.karjalainen@utu.fi

researchgate.net/profile/Joni_Karjalainen