Can We Avoid the Two Degree Threshold? Vital Signs

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Vital Signs TEXT HERE Can we avoid the two degree threshold?

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According to the most recent estimates, 2014 emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the main contributor to global climate change, are projected to be 2.5 percent higher than 2013 levels, which translates into the release of 37 billion additional tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. As negotiators wrap up their talks at the international climate conference in Lima, Peru, there is no indication that this trend will change soon. Scientists estimate that future emissions should not exceed 1,200 billion tons of CO2, in order to keep Earth's temperature increase to no more than 2 degrees Celsius and to avoid severe and irreversible environmental effects. Yet at the current rate of emissions, this remaining “quota” would be used up in less than a generation, writes Joel Stronberg, contributing author for the Worldwatch Institute’s (www.worldwatch.org) Vital Signs Online.

Transcript of Can We Avoid the Two Degree Threshold? Vital Signs

Page 1: Can We Avoid the Two Degree Threshold? Vital Signs

Vital Signs

TEXT HERECan we avoid the two

degree threshold?

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TEXT HERE

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the maincontributor to global climate change

It is believed that warming the earth by 2degrees Celsius will have severe and

irreversible global environmental effects

"CO2 Emissions Set to Reach New 40 Billion Tonne Record High in 2014," press release(Norwich, U.K.: Tyndall Center for Climate Research, 22 September 2014).

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TEXT HERETo prevent this temperature increase, total

future emissions cannot exceed 1,200billion tons

"CO2 Emissions Set to Reach New 40 Billion Tonne Record High in 2014," press release (Norwich,U.K.: Tyndall Center for Climate Research, 22 September 2014).

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TEXT HEREIn 2013, global combustion of fossil fuelsand the production of cement resulted inthe emission of 36.1 billion tons of CO2.

2014 emissions are projected to be 2.5%over 2013 levels

Global Carbon Project, "Global Carbon Budget 2014," Power Point Presentation, 21 September 2014. Notethat all figures cited are in metric tons.

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TEXT HEREWithout more aggressive global mitigationactions, the 2 degrees threshold could be

crossed before 2041

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TEXT HEREReaching carbon net neutrality

between 2055 and 2070 is essentialto minimizing the risk of severe,pervasive, and in some cases,

irreversible climate change impacts

U.N. Environment Programme, “UN Says Global Carbon Neutrality Should be Reachedby Second Half of Century, Demonstrates Pathways to Stay Under 2°C Limit,” press

release (Nairobi: 19 November 2014).

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TEXT HEREThe United States ranks first inper person emissions from the

combustion of fossil fuels. Chinais ranked second.

Stefan Nicola, “China Surpasses EU in Per-Capita Pollution for First Time,” BloombergNews, 22 September 2014.

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TEXT HERECarbon Dioxide is the most

prevalent greenhouse gas butmethane is the most potent,

trapping 86 times the heat of CO2

Joe Romm, “Methane Leaks Wipe Out Any Benefit of Fracking, Satellite ObservationsConfirm,” Thinkprogress.org, 22 October 2014.

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TEXT HEREGreenhouse gas emissions mainly

come from energy supply,industrial processes, forestry,

agriculture, and transportation.U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), “Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Data,” at www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html, based on IPCCdata.

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Failure to meet previouslyestablished climate goals is due to

the falling prices of coal, naturalgas and petroleum, among other

things

REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. 15.

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TEXT HERESlowdown in global economic

growth causes industrial nationsto limit support for clean energy

alternatives

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TEXT HERE

Expanding world population andthe growth of developing-

country economies alsocontributes to the rising

greenhouse gas emissions

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TEXT HERE

Halving the rate of deforestationand restoring significant acres ofdeforested lands worldwide by

2030 could reduce carbonemissions by between 4.5 billion

and 8.8 billion tons of CO2

“UN Climate Summit Pledges to Halt Loss of Natural Forests by2030,” (London) Guardian, 23 September 2014.

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TEXT HEREClean energy alternatives,

like solar and wind power, areavailable and are decreasing

in cost

REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. 28

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TEXT HEREMany larger developing nations are

investing in sustainable energyindustries. China invested $56.3 billion in

renewable energy in 2013

REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2014 (Paris: 2014), p. 68

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Full analysis, sources,and data available at:

http://bit.ly/1uUrKTB

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VITAL SIGNS ONLINE

Through research and outreach thatinspire action, the WorldwatchInstitute works to accelerate thetransition to a sustainable world thatmeets human needs.

Vital Signs Online providesbusiness leaders, policymakers,and engaged citizens with the latestdata and analysis to understandcritical global trends.

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