Can Ho Dich Vu Tai HCM

3/ 10/2008 TP.HCM

CN H DCH V

Thi im tt xy dng ti TpH Ch Minh?

Hp bo

Trnh by bi ng Marc Townsend

Gim c iu Hnh- CBRE Vit Nam

CB Richard Ellis | Page 2

Th trng

107 ta nh vn phng ang xy dng

70% l hng C

Gi ang c xu hng gim

59 ta nh cn h dch v hin hu

Ch vi d n ang xy dng

Gi ang c xu hng tng 5%- 10% mi nm


Cn h dch v >< Cn h cho thu

Thuc s hu ca c nhn hay cng ty cn hti cc chung c, c mua v cho thu li.

Cho thu bi ch nh/ cng ty hay qua mi gii

Qun l bi ban qun l ca ta nh

a phn l khng c dch v km theo ( dch vdn phng c sp xp ring)

Cha trang b ni tht hay c trang b 1 phnty vo cc tiu chun c nhn

Thi gian thu: t nht 1 nm

t cc t 2-3 thng v thanh ton trc mithng hay theo qu

Ha n thanh ton hng thng nhiu loi (Tinthu, tng tin ch, ch u xe, ph qun l )

Thuc s hu ca ch u t/ nh u t ttc cc cn h c xy dng cho thu

Cho thu bi ch u t

Qun l bi ch u t c th bi nh qunl Bt ng Sn do ch s hu ch nh

Cung cp y cc dch v bi Qun l tanh - bao gm dch v dn phng, thay khntm

Ni tht y theo tiu chun ca ta nh ( c, trang thit b, chn da v lmbp)

Thi gian thu: linh ng ( t 1-24 thng)

thch hp cho ngi cha c k hoch chc chn

t cc t 1-2thng v tr tin thu trc mithng

Chi tr r rng theo ha n hng thng (Tin thubao gm tin thu cn h v cc dch v khc)

Cn h cho thu

The Manor, Avalon, Cantavil, Thao DienRiverview, Panorama, Sky Garden

Cn h dch vSedona Suites, Norfolk Mansion, Sky Garden,

Sherwood Residence, Somerset, Diamond Plaza


Nu mun c ha n, tin thu s cao hn ( thm 19.2% hay 10% trn gi thu v dch v yucu) v khng hon c cho ha n trc tipnu ch nh l c nhn

T cn h 1 phng (studio) n cn h 4 phngng

Bo v 24/7

Dch v km theo: tin ch ti ta nh (a dng)

Dch v khng km theo: git i, dn phng, uxe, in, nc, tin in thoi, Internet, ph qunl, cc tin ch khc

Kh kim tra cht lng trc

Xut ha n c thu hng thng

T cn h dng studio ( nh phng khch sn) n cn h 4 phng ng

Bo v 24/7

Dch v km theo: qun l, nc, dn phng, nh mc in bao gm(ty theo), hu ht cs dng cc tin ch, gi ni ht (ty theo), ADSL (a phn)

Dch v khng km theo: git i, u xe

c kim tra cht lng trc

Cn h cho thu

The Manor, Avalon, Cantavil, Thao DienRiverview, Panorama, Sky Garden

Cn h dch vSedona Suites, Norfolk Mansion, Sky Garden,

Sherwood Residence, Somerset, Diamond Plaza

Cn h dch v >< Cn h cho thu


Cung v cu- cn h dch v

(Ngun: CB Richard Ellis)

NGUN CUNG TCH LY QUA TNG NM CA TH TRNG CN H DCH V TP.HCM (Q3/2008)

428 62

4 119

0

1384 1524

1564 18

10

1928 21

26 2339

2419 2

794

2844

2844

196

566

194140

40246

118198

21380

375

50 015

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08

S cn h

Ngun cung hin ti Ngun cung mi


Sherwood Residence-Q.3

H Ch Minh l th trng nh cho thu chnhTh trng Vit Nam vn m vi s lng cc cng ty a quc gia ngy cng nhiu (WTO, FDI,

chnh sch v lut u t u i) Th trng th trng nh cho thu dnh cho ngi nc ngoi lu tr ngn n trung hnS THIU HT NGUN CUNG tm thi c lp y bi cc cn h bn c mua v cho

thuKhch thng thu cc cn h trong ta nh xy dng bi ch u t cng quc tchNgun u t mi n t cc cng ty bt ng sn quc t vi ngun vn mnh, c k hoch

pht trin lu di, c kin nhnCc d n cn h dch v bt u xut hin nhng khu vc vi h thng ung x c ci

thin n nhng khu cng nghip ngoi nh Green Hills cng vin phn mm Quang Trung vPh M Hng

S lc th trng cn h dch v ti TP HCM

Sedona Suites - Q.1 Nguyen Du Park Villas-Q.1


SUPPLY AND OCCUPANCY RATE OF GRADE A , B, C SERVICED APARTMENTS IN HCMC (Q3/08)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Grade A Grade B Grade C

Number of units

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Supply Occupancy rate

55%

35%

$500-$2,000

$2,100-$4,000

Trn

$4,000

10 %

Ngn sch thu nh ca khch nc ngoi

S lc th trng cn h dch v ti TP HCMNgun cung v t l cho thu ca nhng cn h dch v hng A,B,C ti TH.HCM

(Q3/2008)


Thng hiu quc t

trong nc

Somerset Chancellor Court , NTMK D.1The Ascott Group- CapitaLand

Trung Thuy Co.Ltd.

The Lancaster- Le Thanh Ton, D.1

Windsor Group

Sherwood Residence- Pasteur, D.3

Ch u t mi:InterconIHG

Ch u t chnh- Cn h dch v

Sedona Hotels Intl- thuc tpon qun l khch sn tiSing Chi nhnh ca Keppel LandSedona Suites, Le Loi, Q.1

Tp on u t Norfolk Cng tyqun l quc tNorfolk Mansion, Ly Tu Trong, Q.1


C bn: an ninh, tin ch sinh hot, truyn hnh cp, phng tmtin nghi, in d phng

Mc trung bnh: an ninh 24/24, vn, qun l chuyn nghip

Tin ch v dch v chung

Dn phngGit iGarageH biSauna / phng xng hiJacuzzi

GymNh hng/ BarSn chi tr emMassage / Beauty Salon / SpaBusiness CenterSn Tennis

Yu cu v tin ch cn h dch v


Yu t to ngun cu

u t trc tip nc ngoi trong 9 thng u nm: 57,7 t USD, hn gp inm va ri

Th trng pht trin nhanh th 2 Chu Tng trng GDP mnh ( 8.5% nm 2007 v d on 6.5%-7% nm 2008) n nh chnh tr

S CC D N U T TRC TIP NC NGOI (FDI) TP.HCM(2000 - Q3/08)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08_F

S d n


C 60,000 ngi nc ngoi ng k sng v lm vic ti HCM ( tnh n thng 6/2008)

85% khch thu cn h lm vic cho cc cng ty a quc gia v c quan ngoi giao t khu vcchu , chu u v Hoa K

Khch thu ch yu l ngi i Loan, Hn Quc, Malaysia, Nht, Singapore, M

T thng k nhu cu thu ca khch CBRE 1 nm qua:

80% khch thu l ngi c thn v 20% c gia nh

63% khch thu mun sng ti khu vc trung tm, 18% Q.2, 10% Q.7 v 9% l nhngkhu vc khc (Tn Bnh, Bnh Thnh, Ph Nhun )

Thi hn thu t 3 thng n 1 nm

Ngun: CBRE

S lc khch thu cn h dch v


V sao khch thu nc ngoi thch cn h dch v hn

A IM : 15 pht li xe n trung tm thnh ph hay ti cc vng ven nhng pht trin v h tng

vi cc tin ch nh trng quc t, bars, nh hng, vn phng

THI HN THU LINH HOT

THANH TON R RNG

DCH V CHUYN NGHIP V AN NINH

TIN NGHI VI NHIU TIN CH PHONG PH

B TR CN H KIU NC NGOI: Bp m ginh cho ngi Phng Ty v bp ng ginh

cho ngi Chu ; c bit ngi Trung Quc rt quan trng hng phng.

THIT K, TRANG B, NI THT C PHONG CCH: phong cch Ty u cho ngi Phng Ty v

phong cch Chu cho ngi Chu .

CC DCH V GIA TNG GI TR : xe a rc, th vin, rp chiu phim mini, chng trnh

khuyn mi

CNG NGH TIN TIN

TH TC RA V VO NHANH CHNG

TH HIN BN THN


S thch ca khch thu

Trang b ni tht y i vi cn h dch v v trang bni tht mt phn cho cn h cho thu

Khng gian m ra tt c phngCa trt rng ngn cch phng khch v phng ng.

Khch Ty thch 1 phng rng hn 2 phng nh

Cch b tr phng theo chc nng cung cp khng gianngh ngi, lm vic v thm ch nu n

Gng trang im nn cng chiu cao vi Khch Ty

Chiu su ca bn tm, v tr cc thit b kt ni tc cao

V tr ca nhng thit b truyn tn hiu bng thng rng


Thit k ni tht

Thanh nh

Sang trng

Hin i


Cung v cu- cn h dch v>< vn phng


TNG CUNG V T L CHO THU CA CC CN H DCH V TI TP.HCM (Q3/08)

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08

S cn h

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Tng cung T l cho thu

Cung hin ti cn h: Kg. 2,859 cn

Kg. 300,000m2

Cung vn phng: 810.000m2


V tr ta nh cn h dch v

23 ta nh cn h dch v ti q.1


V tr ta nh vn phng

76 ta nh vn phng ti q.1


Gi thu cn h dch vGi thu tiu biu cho cn h dch v (bao gm 10% VAT v 5% ph dch v

Vo qu 3/2008, gi thu trung bnh l 29.61usd/m2, tng 3% so vi qu 2 v n 10% so vi cui nm 2007. Mt s cn h dch v thng hiu quc t nh Sedona Suites, Somerset tng gi thu ln n 12% so vi qu 2 v n40% so vi cui nm 2007. D tnh gi thu trung bnh s tng ln 45USD/m2 trong vng 3 nm ti. Gi thu v t l thucn h ca nhng thng hiu quc t theo d on s n nh hn v gi thu cng nh t l cho thu.


Din tch cng nh, gi thu tnh theo m2 cng cao - li nhun cao

Studio 1 phng ng 2 phng ng 3 phng ng 4 phng ng 5 phng ng

Hng A - 1,900-3,900 2,400-7,100 3,800-8,800 4,500-8,000 -

Hng B 650-1,900 1,800-3,500 1,300-4,600 1,600-7,500 2,500-6,500 5,500-5,700

Hng C 700-1,800 600-2,600 950-4,200 1,400-4,800 1,800-4,200 -

HngUSD/cn h/thng

Studio 1 phng ng 2 phng ng 3 phng ng 4 phng ng 5 phng ngHng A - 23-63 26-47 27-60 22-32 -

Hng B 20-42 28-48 12-43 13-42 12-35 18-25

Hng C 15-55 12-45 10-33 12-29 18-20 -

HngUSD/m2/thng


Gi thu cn h dch vGI THU CC CN H HNG A TP.HCM (Q3/08)

54,75

40

33 30,5033

30

44

32,5037,22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sed

ona

Sui

te

Nor

folk

Man

sion

Indo

chin

e

Par

k To

wer

Dia

mon

d

Pla

za

Gar

den

Vie

w C

ourt

Ngu

yen

Du

Par

k Vill

as

The

Lanc

aste

r

She

rwoo

d

Gi

trun

g

bnh

USD/m2/thng

GI THU CC CN H HNG B TP.HCM (Q3/08)

29,72

2325,50

15

39

33

15,75

21

26

38

3334,50

45

30,38

37

0

10

20

30

40

50

Land

mar

k

River

side

Som

erse

t Cou

rt

Som

erse

t HCM

C

Sai

gon

Sky

Gar

den

Sai

gon

Cou

rt

Par

klan

d

Sai

gon

Dom

aine

Wat

er F

ront

HBT

Cou

rt

Sai

gon

Vie

w

Gre

en H

ills

Indo

chin

a Par

k To

wer

Tan

Da

Cou

rt

Gi

trun

g b

nh

USD/m2/thng


Gi thu cn h dch v

Gi thu gia hn: cn h loi A, B v C tng t 5%-10%

GI THU MT VI CN H HNG C TP.HCM (Q3/08)

37

21

14,75

2326,50

13,25 15

23,50

35

28,65

21,90

0

10

20

30

40

City

view

Paci

ficG

arde

n

Sou

ther

nC

ross

Vale

ntin

aC

ourt

2K H

o Xu

anH

uong

Sun

rise

Gol

den

Glo

be May

PN

T C

ourt

Gre

en V

iew

II

Gi

trun

gb

nh

USD/m2/thng


Tng trng gi thu trung bnh

$75.7

$35.8

$28.7

CH S GI THU TRUNG BNH CA CN H DCH V ( Hng A&B)

$25

$26

$27

$28

$29

$30

Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08

US$/sm/month

Gm thu v ph dch v

Khng bao gm thu v ph dch

v

Gi cho thu ta nh vn phng mi xy dng


TA NH VN PHNG HNG ATA LC TI QUN TRUNG TMCHI PH XY DNG 600USD 700USD/M2Khng tn chi ph thit k ni thtDin tch sn: 1.000m2/ snT L THU khng c nhGI THU: 65-70USD/M2CHI PH HOT NG: 30%DIN TCH CHO THU C : 80% MT XY DNG: 70%THI GIAN HON THNH: 18-24 Thng

Hon vn u t

GI NH (Tr chi ph t)

CN H DCH V HNG ATA LC TI QUN TRUNG TMCHI PH XY DNG 800USD/M2TRANG TR NI THT 20,000USD/M2100 CN H - 120M2/CNT L THU L 80% TRONG NM U TINT L THU L 100% TRONG NM TH 2GI THU: 45USD/M2CHI PH HOT NG: 50%DIN TCH CHO THU C : 80%MT XY DNG: 45%THI GIAN HON THNH: 24 Thng


Hon vn u t

THI GIAN HON VN

-2,000,000 - 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000

YR 1

YR 3

YR 5

YR 7

Revenue Cost

HON VN SAU 7 NM A VO KINH DOANHT SUT LI NHUN U T CAO


Ngun cung 2008-2013 TPHCMFUTURE GRADE A AND B SERVICED RESIDENCES IN HCMC

(2008 - 2013)

59

260

139

100

420

120

284

100

624

288

1000

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Sailing Tower (2008)

Kumho Plaza (2010)

Times Square (2010)

Fraser Place (2010)

Savico Tan Binh (2010)

Savico Ho Tung Mau (2010)

Crescent (2010)

Vista (2011)

Royal Centre (2012)

VFC (2012)

Him Lam-TSN (2012)

Units

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2008F 2009F 2010F

Grade A Grade B Grade C

Ngun cung vn phng trong tng lai

2008F: 315,164m2

2009F:266,289m2

2010F: 332,309m2

Tng cng: 914.000m2 trong 3 nm

Ngun cung cn h dch v

2008: 59 cn

2010: 1,323 cn

2011: 100 cn

2012: 1,912 cn

Tng cng: 3.394 cn h trong 5 nm

Khong 340.000m2

Cung cn h loi A v B ti TPHCM

giai on (2008 -2013)


D bo th trng cn h dch v


Gi thu cn h dch v ca nhng thng hiu quc t c xu hng tip tc tng do ngun cung tNgi nc ngoi vi ngn sch cao (t 4.000USD tr ln) lun c nhu cu tm kim nhng cao h cht

lng tt ti nhng khu vc an ninhTrin vng trung v di hn (t nay n nm 2012): d kin gi thu s tng khi nn kinh t th gii cng

nh Vit Nam hi phc sau s xung dc tm thi

RENTAL TREND OF SERVICED APARTMENTS IN HCMC(1997-2007)

-

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

US$/sm/month

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

Unit

Total Supply Rents

Xu hng gi thu cn h dch v TPHCM(1997 -2007)

Tng cung Gi thu


Q.2 Cn h cho thu T l thu v gi thu trung bnh

13 cn h hon thnh vi tng s khong 753 cn h cho thu vo nm2008

Riverview Cantavil

An Thnh

Cn h cho thu Q.2

64% 57%48% 44%

15 1618 18

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%T l

thu

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Gi

th

u

(U

SD

)

T l cho thu 36% 43% 52% 56%

T l t rng 64% 57% 48% 44%

Gi thu 15 16 18 18

Q4/07 Q1 Q2 Q3


19 cao c hon thnh vi khong 3000 cn h cho thu vo nm2008

Grandview

Parkview

Sky Garden

Q.7 Cn h cho thu T l thu v gi thu trung bnh

Cn h cho thu Q.7

60% 55% 50% 45%

1314.514 13.5

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

T l

cho

th

u

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Gi

th

u

(U

SD

)

T lcho thu 40% 45% 50% 55%

T l trng 60% 55% 50% 45%

Gi thu 14 14.5 13 13.5

Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3


C hi

Ch u T

Trong nc: Hp tc vi nhng thng hiu quc t khuch trng thnghiu v thu c li nhun cao hn t vic s hu v qun l tt

Ngoi nc: Hp tc vi cc i tc trong nc c th tm c nhng mtbng tt nht

Nh u t

T chc: thu di hn cc ta cao c v cho thu li vi mc gi cao hn bngcch nng cp li ta nh(ni tht, trang tr, thng hiu, M&E)

C nhn:Mua- k gi-cho thu vi t sut li nhun m bo t pha ch u t


Tng kty l thi im thch hp xy dng cn h dch v

Cho thu d dng - nhu cu cao

Tng gi thu khi th trng tt v gi gi thu khi th trng chm

Thiu ngun cung nhng cn h dch v cht lng tt

Gi thu vn phng ang gim

Ngun cung vn phng cho thu ang c s cnh tranh v ngun cung ca cn h cho thu ang giatng

Kh nng thu hi vn n nh trong thi gian di hn u t vn phng

Chnh lch gi cao khi bn li - nh u t thch mua loi bt ng sn ny


Trn 300 th trng ti hn 50 quc gia

Worldwide Office Locations

49

33

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