Can Guinness help you estimate?

@jamespwyllie

@bigpinots

Story Points & VelocityStory Points “They are a unit of measure for expressing the overall size of a user story or feature. They tell us how big a story is, relative to others, either in terms of size or complexity”

- Mike Cohn

Story Points & VelocityPlanning Poker

Story Points & VelocityBenchmark

3 Story Points

Story Points & VelocityVelocitytotal story points / no. of sprints

Last 5 sprints completed points were 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 = 250 points / 5 sprints = velocity of 50 points

How big is my project?Total estimate (points) / velocity = number of sprintse.g. 500 story points for project / 50 points = 10 sprints

How long will it take?Number of sprints x length of sprint (weeks)e.g. 2 weeks sprints = 10 sprints x 2 weeks = 20 weekshttps://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/tools/velocity-range-calculator

Kanban Metrics

Kanban Metrics

LEAD TIME

WIP

WIP

WIP

DELIVERY RATE

https://hakanforss.wordpress.com/

Kanban MetricsLittle’s Law

Average Lead Time (ALT) = Average WIP / Average DR

Average WIP (AW) = Average Lead Time x Average DR

Average Delivery Rate (DR) = Average WIP / Average Lead Time

“Slap anyone who uses little’s law to create forecasts”- Daniel Vacanti

https://leanpub.com/actionableagilemetrics

Basic Forecast

Forecast = (WI(n) / DR) + ALT

Monte Carlo simulators(5.99 x 127,583) - 312,270 = 451,952(5.99 x 127,583) - 312,270 = 451,952(5.49 x 26,715) - 305,923 = -159,255

(5.99 x 127,583) - 312,270 = 451,952(5.49 x 26,715) - 305,923 = -159,255(8.49 x 45,202) - 228,423 = 155,341

(5.99 x 127,583) - 312,270 = 451,952(5.49 x 26,715) - 305,923 = -159,255(8.49 x 45,202) - 228,423 = 155,341(6.99 x 117,371) - 245,352 = 575,073

(5.99 x 127,583) - 312,270 = 451,952(5.49 x 26,715) - 305,923 = -159,255(8.49 x 45,202) - 228,423 = 155,341(6.99 x 117,371) - 245,352 = 575,073(8.00 x 14,054) - 329,609 = -217,180

(5.99 x 127,583) - 312,270 = 451,952(5.49 x 26,715) - 305,923 = -159,255(8.49 x 45,202) - 228,423 = 155,341(6.99 x 117,371) - 245,352 = 575,073(8.00 x 14,054) - 329,609 = -217,180(7.49 x 73,265) - 369,820 = 178,935

(5.99 x 127,583) - 312,270 = 451,952(5.49 x 26,715) - 305,923 = -159,255(8.49 x 45,202) - 228,423 = 155,341(6.99 x 117,371) - 245,352 = 575,073(8.00 x 14,054) - 329,609 = -217,180(7.49 x 73,265) - 369,820 = 178,935(8.49 x 7,904) - 207,013 = -139,911

(5.49 x 26,715) - 305,923 = -159,255(8.49 x 45,202) - 228,423 = 155,341(6.99 x 117,371) - 245,352 = 575,073(8.00 x 14,054) - 329,609 = -217,180(7.49 x 73,265) - 369,820 = 178,935(8.49 x 7,904) - 207,013 = -139,911(5.99 x 148,909) - 206,799 = 685,166

(8.49 x 45,202) - 228,423 = 155,341(6.99 x 117,371) - 245,352 = 575,073(8.00 x 14,054) - 329,609 = -217,180(7.49 x 73,265) - 369,820 = 178,935(8.49 x 7,904) - 207,013 = -139,911(5.99 x 148,909) - 206,799 = 685,166(5.99 x 40,272) - 300,293 = -59,064

(6.99 x 117,371) - 245,352 = 575,073(8.00 x 14,054) - 329,609 = -217,180(7.49 x 73,265) - 369,820 = 178,935(8.49 x 7,904) - 207,013 = -139,911(5.99 x 148,909) - 206,799 = 685,166(5.99 x 40,272) - 300,293 = -59,064(5.99 x 151,186) - 228,727 = 676,880

(8.00 x 14,054) - 329,609 = -217,180(7.49 x 73,265) - 369,820 = 178,935(8.49 x 7,904) - 207,013 = -139,911(5.99 x 148,909) - 206,799 = 685,166(5.99 x 40,272) - 300,293 = -59,064(5.99 x 151,186) - 228,727 = 676,880(8.99 x 35,272) - 333,723 = -16,618

(7.49 x 73,265) - 369,820 = 178,935(8.49 x 7,904) - 207,013 = -139,911(5.99 x 148,909) - 206,799 = 685,166(5.99 x 40,272) - 300,293 = -59,064(5.99 x 151,186) - 228,727 = 676,880(8.99 x 35,272) - 333,723 = -16,618(7.99 x 124,891) - 368,288 = 629,595

(8.49 x 7,904) - 207,013 = -139,911(5.99 x 148,909) - 206,799 = 685,166(5.99 x 40,272) - 300,293 = -59,064(5.99 x 151,186) - 228,727 = 676,880(8.99 x 35,272) - 333,723 = -16,618(7.99 x 124,891) - 368,288 = 629,595(8.99 x 76,506) - 388,655 = 299,138

(5.99 x 148,909) - 206,799 = 685,166(5.99 x 40,272) - 300,293 = -59,064(5.99 x 151,186) - 228,727 = 676,880(8.99 x 35,272) - 333,723 = -16,618(7.99 x 124,891) - 368,288 = 629,595(8.99 x 76,506) - 388,655 = 299,138(7.99 x 23,805) - 375,232 = -185,034

(5.99 x 40,272) - 300,293 = -59,064(5.99 x 151,186) - 228,727 = 676,880(8.99 x 35,272) - 333,723 = -16,618(7.99 x 124,891) - 368,288 = 629,595(8.99 x 76,506) - 388,655 = 299,138(7.99 x 23,805) - 375,232 = -185,034(5.99 x 42,630) - 253,040 = 2,314

(5.99 x 151,186) - 228,727 = 676,880(8.99 x 35,272) - 333,723 = -16,618(7.99 x 124,891) - 368,288 = 629,595(8.99 x 76,506) - 388,655 = 299,138(7.99 x 23,805) - 375,232 = -185,034(5.99 x 42,630) - 253,040 = 2,314… and on …

(5.99 x 151,186) - 228,727 = 676,880(8.99 x 35,272) - 333,723 = -16,618(7.99 x 124,891) - 368,288 = 629,595(8.99 x 76,506) - 388,655 = 299,138(7.99 x 23,805) - 375,232 = -185,034(5.99 x 42,630) - 253,040 = 2,314… and on … and on …

(5.99 x 151,186) - 228,727 = 676,880(8.99 x 35,272) - 333,723 = -16,618(7.99 x 124,891) - 368,288 = 629,595(8.99 x 76,506) - 388,655 = 299,138(7.99 x 23,805) - 375,232 = -185,034(5.99 x 42,630) - 253,040 = 2,314… and on … and on … and on …

“the future of forecasting in knowledge work”~ Dan Vacanti

Calibration62mm

Estimate the average rainfall in September

CalibrationI’m 80% confidentit will be between0mm and 100mm

Estimate the average rainfall in September

Student’s t-statistic

William Sealy Gosset (13 June 1876 – 16 October 1937)

https://upload.wikim

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b/4/42/William

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A small amount of data can be used to forecast the future … if you take the appropriate level of error into account

ConclusionsMeasurement“A quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on one or more observations”

- Douglas Hubbard

4 useful measurement assumptions:● Your problem is not as unique as you think● You have more data than you think● An adequate amount of data is more accessible than you think● You need less data than you think

Conclusions

Conclusions“It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” ~ John Maynard Keynes, British Economist

Can Guinness help you estimate?

Conclusions“It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.” ~ John Maynard Keynes, British Economist

Can Guinness help you estimate?forecast?

@jamespwyllie & @bigpinots