CAMS 81 – Global and Regional emissions...Table 1: Characteristics of the CAMS 2015 regional...

ECMWF COPERNICUS REPORT

Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service

CAMS_81 – Global and Regional emissions

D81.1.1.1 : European emissions dataset (2015)

Issued by: TNO / Jeroen Kuenen

Date: 19/04/2018

Ref: CAMS81_2017SC1_D81.1.1.1-M6-201802_v3.docx

CAMS81_2017SC1_D81.1.1.1_201802_Emissions-Europe_v1.1

Official reference number service contract: 2017/CAMS_81/SC1

This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of CAMS on behalf of the European Union (Delegation Agreement signed on 11/11/2014). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubts, the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the authors view.


CAMS81_2017SC1 – 2015 European anthropogenic emissions of 13

Contributors

TNO J. Kuenen, S. Dellaert, A. Visschedijk, S. Jonkers, H. Denier van der Gon FMI J. Jalkanen



Table of Contents

1. Summary 5

2. Methodology for developing the 2015 European regional anthropogenic emissions 6

3. Results: the CAMS-REG-AP_v1.1 and CAMS-REG-GHG_v1.1 inventory for 2015 9

4. Evaluation and follow-up 11



1. Summary This document describes the CAMS regional emissions dataset for 2015, i.e. the methodology, documentation and a summary of the results. The dataset covers the entire European domain for the priority air pollutants (NOx, SO2, NMVOC, NH3, CO, PM10, PM2.5) and the greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4). It is referred to as CAMS-REG-AP_v1.1 (Air pollutants) and CAMS-REG-GHG_v1.1 (Greenhouse gases). This high resolution (~7x7 km) dataset is designed and intended to replace the TNO-MACC_III emission dataset (with 2011 as a most recent year) in the CAMS regional production projects such as CAMS_50. The dataset was delivered at the end of February 2018 as planned.



2. Methodology for developing the 2015 European regional anthropogenic emissions

The strategy for developing the CAMS regional emissions as proposed in the contract is shown in Figure 1, for the 1st year of the project. The strategy was also highlighted in the proposal. The method starts from the reported emissions by European countries to UNFCCC (for greenhouse gases) and to EMEP/CEIP (for air pollutants). The emissions have been aggregated to 76 different combinations of sectors and fuels which were also the basis in the earlier TNO_MACC-II and TNO_MACC-III inventories. Because of the different level of detail in reporting between air pollutants and greenhouse gases, in specific cases aggregation and/or disaggregation was needed to harmonize the sectors between all pollutants and countries. The reported data have been checked for gaps, errors and inconsistencies and form the basis for the CAMS regional inventory for 2015. Where needed, reported data were replaced or completed using other emission data most notably from; • the IIASA GAINS model [ http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/models/gains_models.html ] • the JRC EDGAR inventory [ http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ ] • TNO bottom-up estimates for shipping. Expert judgement was used to judge the quality of each of the sources. Thereafter, a consistent spatial distribution methodology has been applied for Europe. For point sources information was collected on the exact location of power plants, large industrial installations, oil and gas production sites, airports and waste treatment locations (e.g. landfills). For area sources, proxies have been collected which are thought to best represent the spatial variability of each specific emission source. The CAMS_81 project started in September 2017 and not all foreseen improvements in spatial distribution can be made before February 2018. Therefore, this works in ongoing with further improvements scheduled for the next data delivery at M12.



Figure 1: Methodology for developing the anthropogenic global emissions The main characteristics of the CAMS-REG-AP_v1.1 and CAMS-REG-GHG_v1.1 datasets are given in Table 1.

CAMS-REG-AP_v1.1 and CAMS-REG-GHG_v1.1 characteristics Pollutants/gases covered

NOx, SO2, NMVOC, NH3, CO, PM10, PM2.5 CO2_ff (fossil fuel), CO2_bf (biofuel), CH4

Resolution 1/8° x 1/16° (longitude latitude, ~ 7x7 km over central Europe) Period covered 2015 (annual emissions) Domain 30° W – 60° E

30° N – 72°N Table 1: Characteristics of the CAMS 2015 regional emissions

With regard to the predecessor, TNO_MACC-III emissions for 2011, the following updates and improvements have been realized:

- The emission data by sector and pollutant have been updated with the latest reporting available (reporting from the year 2017) to UNFCCC and to EMEP/CEIP, for the year 2015. Also the EDGAR data which are used for gapfilling have been updated (v4.3.1 for air



pollutants, v4.3.2 for greenhouse gases). It should be noted that these are only available until 2010 and 2012 for v4.3.1 and v4.3.2, respectively, and have been assumed constant from then until 2015.

- Emissions from countries not part of Europe, but still included in the domain (30°W-60°E, 30°N-72°N) have been included in the emission map. These are fully based on the gridded EDGAR emissions (v4.3.1 for air pollutants, v4.3.2 for greenhouse gases), where the grid resolution has been converted to 1/8° x 1/16° resolution. This implies that all anthropogenic releases within the domain are now covered in this dataset.

- CO2 (from fossil and biofuel origin separately) has been integrated in the methodology (this was a separate dataset and methodology in earlier versions). For these CO2 emissions, a distinction is made between CO2 from fossil fuel origin (CO2_ff) and CO2 from biofuel origin (CO2_bf).

- For power plants, the locations and characteristics of each large power plant in Europe have been collected from the combination of various datasets:

o E-PRTR (European Pollutant and Transfer Register, http://prtr.ec.europa.eu/) o CARMA database (Carbon Monitoring for Action, http://carma.org/) o Reporting of EU Member States to the Large Combustion Plants Directive o Platts-WEPP (World Electric Power Plants database, version December 2015,

https://www.platts.com/products/world-electric-power-plants-database) These datasets have been linked together to obtain a full overview of the power plants and to identify gaps and errors, which have been corrected and gapfilled to the extent possible. Work on this is currently ongoing, therefore an extract has been made for 2015 based on the currently available point source information. This information will be further elaborated and improved for the deliveries of the later deliverables of the CAMS regional emissions.

- For population density, the default distribution for many sectors when no specific information is available, an updated version of the Landscan population map (https://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/) for the year 2015 has been bought and the data have been processed. Urban and rural population maps have been created from the population density map by comparing the population density in each cell (inhabitants/km2).

- For airports, a new distribution map has been created based on Eurostat statistics on the passenger and freight flights by airport. The main advantage of this update is that yearly specific maps can be created, reflecting the opening and closure of airports during the time series.

- For international shipping, a newly developed distribution based on AIS data has been implemented, as well as revised estimates for shipping emissions by sea for 2015. The new distribution was partly developed under the former CAMS service continuity project and makes use of data provided by our CAMS81 partner FMI as described in Jalkanen et al. (20161). It should be noted that this does not yet include the new AIS based information that will be delivered by FMI under the CAMS-81 project. Although FMI delivered data timely, an in-depth analysis is needed to ensure that there is no double counting or missing emissions when AIS based data are included on top of the national reported emissions (the latter also

1 Jalkanen, J.-P., Johansson, L., and Kukkonen, J.: A comprehensive inventory of ship traffic exhaust emissions in the European sea areas in 2011, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 71-84, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-71-2016, 2016.



include domestic shipping activities). This will be investigated in the next months., It is foreseen to include the new AIS based emissions received from FMI in the next deliverable (time series 2000-2015, due in M12, August 2018).

In addition to the grid, also an updated PM speciation table is provided for 2015, distinguishing for both fine (<2.5µm) and coarse (2.5-10µm) particulate matter between EC, OC (represented as full mass, i.e. organic matter), sulphate, sodium and other minerals. Other supplementary information for the emissions such as temporal profiles, speciation of VOC and (effective) emission height have not yet been updated. This will be done later during the CAMS_81 project.

3. Results: the CAMS-REG-AP_v1.1 and CAMS-REG-GHG_v1.1 inventory for 2015

The 2018 regional anthropogenic emissions have been developed, as described in the previous section. The emissions are provided on an annual basis for the year 2015 for the species listed in Table 1. As an example of the emissions, Figure 2 shows the total emissions for NOx, PM2.5 and CO2 (separately for fossil and biofuel origin).

Figure 2: Examples of 2015 emissions for NOx (top left), PM2.5 (top right), CO2 from fossil origin (bottom left) and CO2 from biofuel origin (bottom right) (Gg/yr/gridcell)



The total anthropogenic emissions by pollutant and per country are given in Table 2.

Country NOX SO2 NH3 NMVOC CO PM10 PM2_5 CH4 CO2_ff CO2_bf

EU15

plu

s Nor

way

/Sw

itzer

land

AUT 138 15 67 113 566 31 17 263 66 713 23 399 BEL 189 45 66 92 406 40 28 324 99 757 12 201 CHE 60 7 61 78 186 18 8 204 38 627 4 885 DEU 1 069 348 759 822 2 689 220 99 2 241 790 224 92 295 DNK 95 11 73 74 334 30 20 279 34 994 15 779 ESP 824 288 485 555 2 021 216 167 1 560 269 328 36 974 FIN 130 44 32 72 332 32 22 196 43 859 38 686 FRA 853 162 678 621 2 897 267 164 2 398 340 034 58 062 GBR 961 263 293 728 1 621 147 106 2 113 413 200 36 196 GRC 245 116 50 185 999 55 40 414 73 229 4 678 IRL 74 18 108 62 114 24 14 531 38 109 1 485 ITA 736 136 394 829 2 340 184 162 1 735 352 882 45 063 LUX 21 1 6 8 22 2 2 25 9 305 614 NLD 222 32 128 140 569 27 13 763 163 312 12 847 NOR 194 18 27 151 389 39 30 202 42 123 4 493 PRT 162 35 45 180 284 61 48 437 51 487 12 581 SWE 141 21 60 136 434 39 20 196 30 875 22 196

New

Mem

ber S

tate

s

BGR 145 158 34 94 335 54 34 293 48 284 6 515 CYP 15 13 5 7 14 2 1 35 6 852 149 CZE 165 123 70 144 532 39 26 557 103 757 16 944 EST 29 32 12 19 135 15 10 43 15 846 3 911 HRV 51 16 30 57 239 29 22 140 17 788 6 612 HUN 109 24 77 122 465 71 55 307 46 755 12 687 LTU 46 19 29 54 153 28 21 138 13 128 6 125 LVA 32 4 19 36 141 25 19 77 7 214 6 399 MLT 3 3 1 2 0 0 0 7 1 694 26 POL 671 704 268 535 2 441 226 129 1 887 310 286 35 749 ROU 229 156 167 278 939 173 132 1 184 77 885 21 553 SVK 79 71 30 83 235 38 30 175 33 811 7 602 SVN 34 5 19 26 112 13 12 82 13 598 2 984

Non

-EU

coun

trie

s

ALB 16 12 21 27 79 10 7 101 4 906 1 243 ARM 16 1 19 19 63 5 1 81 4 824 1 012 AZE 55 23 73 225 197 13 5 746 29 265 2 054 BIH 32 213 21 61 229 38 26 120 15 679 3 812 BLR 161 94 155 175 472 71 52 611 57 698 10 993 GEO 18 11 34 21 107 11 5 125 6 972 917 ISL 9 55 6 5 118 1 1 22 2 887 - MDA 18 5 15 32 116 17 13 87 6 176 1 788 MKD 32 98 8 27 105 23 15 49 9 446 1 763 RUS 2 109 1 543 547 2 507 9 600 1 397 1 035 15 965 978 475 108 603 TUR 1 003 2 022 476 633 3 019 602 418 1 903 385 140 36 661 UKR 669 1 165 276 548 3 392 604 421 3 164 294 395 27 334 YUG 126 418 56 150 665 115 73 279 53 580 7 961

Sea

regi

ons ATL 665 458 - 20 41 54 51 - 30 345 -

BAS 259 35 - 7 17 10 10 - 11 563 - BLS 76 53 - 2 5 6 6 - 3 415 - MED 1 434 991 - 43 88 116 110 - 65 604 - NOS 617 83 - 18 41 24 22 - 27 207 -



Table 2: Total emissions by country and sea region for the year 2015 (Gg/yr) Figure 3 shows the comparison between emissions in TNO_MACC-III (year 2011) and CAMS-REG-AP_v1.1 (year 2015) for 4 selected pollutants. This shows that for most pollutants emissions (e.g NOx and SO2) have decreased, only for NH3 and PM2.5 emissions have increased. Note that in Figure 3 “Non-EU” includes the countries as presented in Table 2. The Non-EU part does not include the North-Africa & Middle East emissions as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 3: Comparison between MACC-III (2011) and CAMS-REG-AP_v1.1 (2015) regional emissions per country group, for selected pollutants The dataset is available in the ECCAD database, in a restricted area available only for CAMS providers and users.

4. Evaluation and follow-up The CAMS-REG-AP_v1.1 and CAMS-REG-GHG_v1.1 regional emissions will be distributed to the modellers of air quality and greenhouse gases in CAMS. Through cooperation with the modellers, we expect to get feedback from the modellers on the datasets, in the form of possible errors or inconsistencies, but also suggestions for future improvements. This will be taken into account in the development of the updated datasets for the next deliverables under CAMS-81. Partly based on the feedback from modellers, but also based on a number of foreseen improvements and updates, we will work on the development of a 2000-2015 European regional



emission time series similar to the 2015 inventory now delivered, but covering the full 16 years’ time series. For this inventory, which is due in M12 (August 2018), we will further improve the emission estimates and spatial distribution proxies. This implies that the 2015 emission data in the M12 delivery will be an improved version of the current dataset described here.


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