Cambodia Final Presentation - EAF Spring 2013
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Transcript of Cambodia Final Presentation - EAF Spring 2013
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7/28/2019 Cambodia Final Presentation - EAF Spring 2013
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Research Team
Alan Kolata and Sabina Shaikh,University of Chicago
John Felkner, Florida State UniversityMike Binford, University of FloridaMatti Kummu, Aalto UniversityPartners:
Natural Capital Team, Stanford UniversityWinemiller Aquatic Ecology Lab, Texas A&M
University
Center for Khmer Studies, Cambodia
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Study Region
Watershed of MekongRiver Basin and TonleSap lake
Ecological hotspotFlood-pulse systemNatural resources of lake
support over 1 million
livelihoods
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Mekong Flood-Pulse System
Tonle Sap-Mekong connection is acoherent hydrological unit
Flow regime provides a way of lifefor a million people
Flood-recession rice cultivation inthe Mekong and Tonle Sap floodplains, and highly productive lake
fisheries exploit this hydrological
seasonality Predictability and reliability is
important but changing mostly dueto dams
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Larger Project Research Questions
Team is currently developing researchto address the following:
1. What are the likely future land-use and climatescenarios for the region and how will the hydrological
system be affected?2. What is the relationship between the hydrological
system and the generation of ecosystem services forsustainable agricultural production?
3. How do humans depend on and respond tochanges in ecosystem services in the region?
4. What are the tradeoffs associated with alternativechoices for water sustainability?
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Causes of Ecosystem ChangeHydropower Construction, Land Use, Climate Change, Other
Changes in Ecosystem Function
Hydrology, Flood Pulse
Changes in Ecosystem Services:Water Supply, Water Regulation, Water Quality
Biological Diversity, Habitat, Nutrient, Sediment RetentionSoil Retention, Disturbance Prevention
Waste Treatment
Benefits to Humans:Drainage/Natural Irrigation, Provision of Water for Consumptive Use
Fishery Production Maintenance of Arable LandCrop Production, Land-Water Connectivity
Erosion Control, Flood ControlCultural/Recreation Opportunity
Human ResponseFishing Effort, Farming Effort
Agricultural Inputs. Crop Composition
Labor Inputs, Household BehaviorFinancial Assistance
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Current Research Understand the current household composition anddependency on the water system Analysis of Household and Soil Survey Data collected by
Binford, Kolata, Townsend team in 2005/6
3 SurveysHousehold
(2005)
Key Informant(2005)
Soil (2006)
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Characteristics by Province
UsingCombined
HH plot
Data
Battambang KampongTHom
Siem Reap OtdorMeanchy
Non-rice
Farmer
208 129 78 55
Rice farmer 170 362 459 528
Percentage ofRice Farmers
45% 74% 85% 91%
Percentages may be overstated as this is just drawn from
representative sample of people with plots
Even more oversampled in Soil Survey
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Rice Farming Incomes
Battambang KampongThom
Siem Reap OtdorMeanchy
Mean income $6,600,000 $6,100,000 $4,200,000 $4,300,000
TotalObservations
378 491 537 583
Mean RiceFarmer
Income
$6,300,000 $4,600,000 $3,800,000 $4,100,000
Rice FarmerObservations
170 362 459 528
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How important is water access in DrySeason?
Obs Mean
Income
Average effect on log
income
No wateraccess
1969 $5,062,070
Water access 448 $7,225,494 .1792 (p-value < 0.0001)
As drought is the most frequent reason for incomeloss, water access is incredibly important
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Log-income plot of water access
Both follow approximately normal distributions Peaks of income distributions significantly different for water access
0
.2
.4
.6
Density
12 14 16 18 20logincome
No Water Access
Water Access
kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.1497
Kernel density estimate
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Data from Soil SurveyCombinedwith HH plot dataLower-resolution because only 533 data
points
Mainly draw ecological characteristics10% correlation between being by river
and water access
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Effects of being by a river
Observations Mean Income Mean plot Value Mean Effect onLog Income
By River 170 $6,877,401 $4,379,226 .135 (p
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Chemical Fertilizer
Chemical Fertilizer Usage has been risingsince the time of the survey
Regressed on Fertilizer usage and wateraccess
Log(Income)i= 14.97 [p
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Overall Determination of Income
Log Income = 12.76*** -
0.399 {Rice Farmer}*** +
0 .109 { Water Access}** +
0.139 {Log(Land Value)}*** +
0.0007 {Plot Size}*** +
0.0827 {amount of Chemical Fertilizer}*** +
0.118 {Number of plots}***
R-squared: 24.5%
*** denotes significance at 0.001 level** denotes significance at 0.01 level
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Natural Disasters (Key Informant Survey)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
DROUGHT FLOOD STORM CROP
DISEASE
FREQU
ENCY
TYPE OF DISASTER
Number of Natural Disasters By
Type of Disaster
BATTAMBANG
KAMPONG THOM
SIEM REAP
OTDOR MEANCHEY
Province Number ofNatural
Disasters
Percent ofTotal
KampongThom
51 37%
OtdorMeanchey
33 24%
Battambang 29 21%
Siem Reap 24 18%
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Different types of acquisitions of plothave different susceptibility to natural
disasters Inherited plots significantly likely to lose income
because of drought
Plots acquired through Land Reform Programs likelyto lose income because of flood
Plots that are purchased not significantly likely to loseincome from any natural disaster
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Investigating flood susceptibility inKampong ThomKampong Thom has significantly higher
rate of income loss by flooding
Battambang Kampong
Thom
Siem Reap Otdor
Meanchy
Income loss byFlood
13 78 23 7
Income Lossby Drought
116 87 132 203
Plot floodOften?
30 83 38 21
Percentage ofplots that flood
often
26% 55% 28% 16%
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Land Reform
Land reform law in 2001 Intention was to redistribute land to villagers
engaged in agriculture
Sub-decree in 2005 to grant more land toindustrial and commercial landMany industrial gangs abusing system resulting
in land grab
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Land reform impacts
On average, land reform program increased likelihood ofwater access from 17% to 26% (coefficient 0.303, p-
value
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Inherited Land
Affects log-income negativelyat -.278[p
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Next (small) steps
Take into account financial data and assetsCombine with key informant surveySpatial analysis using ArcGIS
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Next (large) Steps
Further analysis of existing data plus datafrom external sources
Team will begin physical/natural ecosystemmodeling
Team will set up sites for further socialscience research through surveys andexperiments
Team will integrate physical/natural/socialscience models for a more holistic view ofchange, response and adaptation