CAMBODIA - ASIA’S NEW TIGER ECONOMY? · 2020-02-20 · CBRE CAMBODIA 6 CAMBODIA: ASIA’S NEW...

CAMBODIA - ASIA’S NEW TIGER ECONOMY?

Presented by Marc Townsend

Managing Director – CBRE Vietnam & Cambodia

01 SEPTEMBER 2016

CAMBODIA OVERVIEW

H2 2016

3 CAMBODIA: ASIA’S NEW TIGER ECONOMY?CBRE CAMBODIA

GDP and GDP Growth Rate (2012– 2016F)

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Source: National Bank of Cambodia & Ministry of Economy and Finance Source: National Bank of Cambodia & Ministry of Economy of Finance

GDP Per Capita and Inflation Rate (2012– 2016F)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

4

8

12

16

20

2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F

GDP (Bn USD) GDP Growth (%)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

GDP Per Capita (USD) Inflation Rate (%)

US$ 2.5 billion

US$ 2.1 billion

US$ 2.1 billion

US$ 2.3 billion

US$ 2.7 billion

US$ 2.9 billion

US$ 4.6 billionManufacturing

Real Estate

Agriculture

Financial

Energy

Services, food &

accommodation

Other

Source: National Bank of Cambodia & National Institute of Statistics

Values reflect

accumulated FDI

at end of 2014


Exports/Imports 2013 – 2016F

Source: Ministry of Commerce (Cambodia) & IMF/EIU Estimate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2013 2014 2015 2016 F

Exports (Bn USD) Imports (Bn USD)

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Trading Partners (2015)

Source:The Observatory of Economic Complexity

28.0%

14.0%

7.9%7.9%5.2%

4.6%

4.0%

28.4%

USA HKG UK GER

CAN SGP JPN Other

25.0%

22.0%

17.0%5.5%

5.4%

4.0%

21.1%

CHN THA VNM

KOR HKG SNG

Exports (2015) Imports (2015)


CAMBODIA DASHBOARD

Economic Indicators 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F

GDP (Bn USD) 14.054 15.251 16.734 18.219 20.231

GDP Growth (%) 7.3 7.4 7.1 7.0 7.1

GDP Per Capita (USD) 973 1,042 1,135 1,216 1,325

Inflation (%) 2.9 2.9 3.9 3 3.5

Source: National Bank of Cambodia, Ministry of Economy and Finance, & World Bank

Banking and Finance 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 To Date

KHR/USD (Official) 4,015 4,010 4,050 4,006 4,100

1-Year USD Lending rate (%)* 11.18 11.35 11.60 11.50 11.50

1-Year USD Deposit rate (%)* 4.27 4.30 4.45 4.25 4.25

Source: National Bank of Cambodia, 08 August, 2016 & CBRE Research

Real Estate Indicators 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2

Prime Condo Price (USD/SQM) 2,952 2,952 2,969 3,024 3,195 3,180

Prime Office Rent (USD/SQM/Month) 21.40 21.40 21.87 22.20 22.67 22.85

New Launched Projects 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2

Condominiums (Units) 2,573 702 3,060 689 4,158 2,796

Office with Strata-tile (SQM) 7,920 0 31,371 26,050 17,260 0

Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2016


* Average rate of Aceleda, UCB, Canadia, Vattanac, Maybank, Bank of China, CIMB, & ABA


CAMBODIA INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND RELATIONS

“China appreciates Cambodia's

support’’

GUIYANG, Aug. 1 (Xinhua) -- China highly appreciates Cambodia's firm support on the South China Sea and Taiwan issues, vice Premier Liu Yandong said while meeting with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister SarKheng Sunday.Hailing that China and Cambodia have developed a good relationship, Liu said the two sides need to strengthen pragmatic cooperation in all areas and deepen cultural exchanges.Liu made the remarks on the sidelines of the 9th China-ASEAN Education Exchanges Week held in the southwestern city Guiyang.


INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS HIGHLIGHTS 2016

LAND & INVESTMENT

H2 2016


PHNOM PENH LAND PRICES CONTINUE TO APPRECIATE

Source: CBRE Cambodia, Q2 2016

Chrory Chang Va + 8.8% q-o-q

Duan Penh+ 5.9% q-o-q

7 Makara + 8.3% q-o-q

Chamkarmon + 2.6% q-o-qToul Kork +1.4% q-o-q

Sen Sok + 2% q-o-q

Phnom Penh Land Price Index (2010 – 2016 Q2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2

Chamkarmon Daun Penh 7 Makara

Toul Kork Sen Sok Chroy Chang VaQ

1 2

01

0 =

10

0


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Fixed

Deposit

Rate

Residential

(Prime)

Office

(Prime)

Retail

(Prime)

Industrial

(SEZ)

Estimated Gross Initial Yield by Sector as of Q2 2016

CAMBODIA BROADENS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES



INVESTMENT IN PHNOM PENH’S PROPERTY MARKET

Accumulated FDI

value in real estate

was US$2.9 billion

as of 2014.

Total investments

in real estate were

US$7.1 billion over

the first 7 months

of 2016,

representing a

719% increase.

PHNOM PENH RESIDENTIAL MARKET

H2 2016


PHNOM PENH CONDOMINIUM MARKET

No. of Condominiums Launched by District (Q1 2015-Q2

2016)


Phnom Penh Condominium Supply by Developer’s Origin

(2008-2018F)


-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016

Chamkarmon Daun Penh 7 Makara

Toul Kork Chroy Chang Va Sen Sok

Por Sen Chey Mean Chey Russey Keo

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

F

20

17

F

20

18

F

Cambodia South Korea Taiwan Malaysia

Singapore China Japan


AVERAGE CONDOMINIUM PRICE & NEW LAUNCHES IN Q2 2016

BCK Condominium

(80 Units)

Average Prime Condominium Price in Southeast Asia

(Q2, 2016)


Average Phnom Penh Condominium Price per Sqm


$1,250

$1,750

$2,250

$2,750

$3,250

$3,750

Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016

Affordable Mid-Range High-End

The View

(384 Units)

Imperial Crown

(163 Units)

UK Condo

(145 Units)

Dingli Sunshine City

(650 Units)

Infinity 28

(98 Units)

Toul Sangke Green View Tower

(174 Units)


PHNOM PENH SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET

Serviced Apartment Supply by Grade (2010-Q2 2016)


Serviced Apartment Supply by Grade & District and

Occupancy Rate as of Q2 2016



Rental Rate Range by Bedrooms, Type / Grade (USD/Month)

Q2 2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

PH 3 2 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

1 2 3 PH

Grade A Grade BUSD Per Month

USD

/SQ

M/M

onth

Rental Range Per Month (Grade A)

Average Rent Per Sqm

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q2

Below C Grade C Grade B Grade A

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Below C Grade C Grade B Grade A Occupancy

Rental Range Per Month (Grade B)

Grade-A Serviced Apartment Rents (USD/SQM/Month) in

Mainland Southeast Asia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Phnom Penh Bangkok Hanoi Ho Chi Minh Yangon (All)


PHNOM PENH OFFICE MARKET

H2 2016


PHNOM PENH OFFICE SUPPLY


Office Supply and Occupancy Rate (2008 – Q2 2016)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q2 2016

Grade C Grade B Grade A Occupancy Rate


PHNOM PENH OFFICE RENTS Q2 2016

Average Quoting Rents by Grade in CBD and Non CBD*


*Exclusive Service Charge ($2-$5/sq.m/month)

A$28

C$10-$15B$16-$25

0510152025

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 Q1

2016 Q2

Grade B (CBD) Grade B (Non-CBD)

0 5 10 15 20 25

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 Q1

2016 Q2

Grade C (CBD) Grade C (Non-CBD)


PHNOM PENH OFFICE OCCUPANCY PROFILE Q2 2016

Demand by Sqm Leased (Q2 2016)

17%

21%

33%

22%

7%<50

50-99

100-199

200-499

500+

14%

13%

9%

8%

6%5%4%

5%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

22%

Logistics Banking & Finance

Diplomatic/Non-Governmental Organisations IT & Telecommunications

Investment & Consultancy Construction & Engineering

Accounting & Audit Medical

Media & Design Insurance

Agriculture Real Estate

Law Others

Office Space Occupied by Each Business Type (Q2 2016)



26%

25%

35%

11%

3%

1-Year or Less

2-Years

3-Years

4-5 Years

More than 5-Year

Lease Expiry Profile (Q2 2016)



STRATA TITLE OFFICE DRIVING SUPPLY

Phnom Penh Office Supply by Tenure Type by 2019F


$3,475/sq.mAverage Price H1 2016

96,760 sq.mStrata-title office space under construction as of Q2 2016

Diamond Twin Tower

NLA: 15,975 sq.m

(2018)

TK Royal One

NLA: 7,920 sq.m

(2017)

Fortune Tower

NLA: 22,000 sq.m

(2018)

East Commercial Center

NLA: 15,396 sq.m

(2018)

The Gateway

NLA: 23,090 sq.m

(2019)

FUTURE STRATA-TITLE OFFICE SUPPLY

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Chamkarmon 7 Makara Toul Kork

Grade A Grade B Average Price per Sqm

Dingli Sunshine City

NLA: est. 12,760 sqm

(2018)


PHNOM PENH OFFICE IN REGIONAL CONTEXT

Prime Office Rent in Southeast Asia

-5%

-3%

0%

3%

5%

8%

10%

(20)

30

80

130

180

USD/SQM/Month % Change


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Prime Strata-title Office Price and Estimated Yield in the

Southeast Asia


Office Supply (Thousand Sq.m) in Southeast Asia as of Q2

2016


- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

Jakarta

Bangkok

Singapore

Kuala Lumpur

Manila

Ho Chi Minh

Hanoi

Phnom Penh

Yangon

New Office Supply (Thousand Sq.m) in Southeast Asia

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Jakarta

Bangkok

Singapore

Manila

Hanoi

Ho Chi Minh

Phnom Penh

Yangon

2016 F 2017 F 2018 F


PHNOM PENH RETAIL MARKET

H2 2016


PHNOM PENH RETAIL MARKET

Phnom Penh Retail Supply by Type 2007 – 2018F


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

F

20

17

F

20

18

F

Shopping Mall Community Mall Retail Podium Other Retail


PHNOM PENH RETAIL MARKET RENTS

Retail Rents by Type Q2 2016


$31.4

$48.3

$30.0

$52.5

$-

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

Prime Shopping

Mall

Prime Retail

Podium

Prime High

Street

Prime Retail

Arcade

Rental Rate Range Average Rental Rate

AEON MallPhnom Penh, Cambodia

Shopping Mall – AEON

Retail Arcade – Naga Citywalk

Retail Podium – Exchange Square


AEON MALL• Location: Chamkarmon Dist.• 104,000 sqm GFA• Open: Q2, 2014• Occupancy: 100%• Positioning : Mid to High End

PHNOM PENH EXISTING SUPPLY

VATTANAC TOWER• Location: Daun Penh Dist.• 7,000 sqm GFA• Open: Q1, 2014• Occupancy: 70%• Positioning : Luxury

TK AVENUE• Location: Toul Kork Dist.• 11,000 sqm GFA• Open: Q4, 2013• Occupancy: 95%• Positioning : Mid to High End


PHNOM PENH RETAIL MARKET RENTS

Average Size Occupied and Average Rents per Sqm by Different Type of Retail Use at Prime Shopping Malls (Q2/2016)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jewlery &

Watches

Beauty &

Health

Food &

Beverage

Sporting Goods Financial

Services

Fashion &

Accessories

Book &

Stationery

Houseware &

Electronics

Average Size Average Rent per Sqm

SQM USD/SQM


PHNOM PENH PRIME RETAIL USES

Prime Retail Uses (Q2 2016)

0%10%20%30%40%

Shopping Mall

Financial & Professional

Food & Beverage

Fashion & Accessories

Entertainment & Leisure

Electronics

General Store

Automobile

Health/Medical

Book/Stationary

Hair & Beauty

Other

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

High Street



PHNOM PENH RETAIL IN REGIONAL CONTEXT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-

100

200

300

400

500

Prime Rent Prime Management Fees

Rent

(USD

/SQ

M)

Managem

ent F

ee (U

SD

/SQ

M)

Prime Retail Rent & Prime Management Fee in Southeast

Asia


Future Retail Supply (SQM) in Southeast Asia

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000

Singapore

Metro Manila

Bangkok

Ho Chi Minh

Hanoi

Phnom Penh

2016F 2017F 2018F



PHNOM PENH

FUTURE RETAIL SUPPLY

Parkson PPCC

Developer Hassan

GFA(sqm) 70,000

Parkson Lion City

Developer Parkson

GFA(sqm) 80,000

Exchange Square

Developer Hongkong Land

GFA(sqm) 13,000

Olympia City

Developer OCIC

GFA(sqm) 100,000

The Peak

Developer Oxley Worldbrige

GFA(sqm) TBC

The Bridge

Developer Oxley Worldbridge

GFA(sqm) 21,750

Naga City Walk

Developer Naga Corp

GFA(sqm) 4,000

AEON Mall 2.0

Developer AEON

GFA(sqm) 151,000

2017

2020

2017

2016

2017

2018

Orkide The Royal Mall

Developer Orkide Villa

GFA(sqm) 54,000

2019

Downtown 93

Developer PMD

GFA(sqm) 3,840

2016

Naga 2

Developer Naga Corp

GFA(sqm) 13,248

20182018

The Gateway

Developer TACC

GFA(sqm) TBC

2019

2018

SIEM REAP AND SIHANOUKVILLE

H2 2016


DEVELOPERS LOOKING BEYOND PHNOM PENH

Sihanoukville Siem Reap


ARRIVALS FUELING RESORT DEVELOPMENT

“Could Cambodia’s Southern Coast be Asia’s

next resort hot spot?” Property Report, March

2016


Coastal & Island Developments

Song Saa Island

27 Luxury Villas

Alila Villas Koh Russey

227 Luxury Residences

Morokot Island (Koh

Pous)

Mixed-Use (Residential,

Hotels, Casino)

Koh Rong

Intergrated Resort (5-

Star Hotels…)

Dara Sakor

Mixed-Use (Hotels,

Golf course, Casino)

Koh Krobey/Koh Chanloh

(Six Senses)

40 Pool Villas, Spa, …


CAMBODIA RESORT PROPERTY IN REGIONAL CONTEXT

Luxury Resort Villa Price in Southeast Asia


High-End Resort Condominium Price in Southeast Asia


$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

Sale Price Range (USD/SQM) Average Sale Price (USD/SQM)

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Sihanoukville Da Nang Samui Hua Hin Phuket Bali

Sale Price Range (USD/SQM) Average Sale Price (USD/SQM)

CAMBODIA MARKET OUTLOOK &

TRENDS

H2 2016


CAMBODIA - FOREIGN RETIREE MARKET POTENTIAL

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000

Portugal

Korea

Israel

New Zealand

Canada

Finland

Sweden

United Kingdom

Austria

Denmark

Netherlands

Switzerland

Source: OECD & CBRE Research

Median Annual Net Income (USD) for OECD Residents Aged 65 and Over

Annual Cost of Living: Sihanoukville Siem Reap Phnom Penh


CAMBODIA - FOREIGN RETIREE MARKET POTENTIAL

Source: International Living, 2016

The 2016 Annual Global Retirement Index—Final Scores

RANK COUNTRYBUYING &

RENTING

BENEFITS &

DISCOUNTS

VISAS &

RESIDENCE

COST OF

LIVINGFITTING IN

ENTERTAINMEN

T & AMENITIESHEALTHCARE

HEALTHY

LIFESTYLE

INFRASTRUC

TURECLIMATE

FINAL

SCORES

1 PANAMA 86 100 100 89 97 100 89 95 90 89 93.5

2 ECUADOR 100 99 83 90 92 95 85 95 85 100 92.4

3 MEXICO 89 88 90 88 91 96 87 86 90 88 89.3

4 COSTA RICA 88 79 87 86 95 88 92 98 88 83 88.4

5 MALAYSIA 94 67 87 90 95 100 94 90 87 74 87.8

6 COLOMBIA 88 65 80 92 89 94 94 95 90 90 87.7

7 THAILAND 90 72 70 90 90 96 88 80 89 83 84.8

8 NICARAGUA 96 72 77 98 88 84 80 97 70 80 84.2

9 SPAIN 82 69 77 82 81 90 86 88 93 88 83.6

10 PORTUGAL 82 75 77 85 81 81 81 88 93 86 82.9

11 MALTA 80 75 78 83 94 82 83 75 85 85 82.8

12 HONDURAS

(ROATAN)77 72 87 78 100 76 79 75 87 82 81.3

13 FRANCE 63 75 77 57 88 96 88 80 93 83 80.0

14 BELIZE 74 83 80 78 98 70 83 8572 67 78 79.6

15 PERU 87 57 75 95 85 74 84 72 80 85 79.4

16 ITALY 62 70 70 74 82 90 80 85 92 83 78.8

17 PHILIPPINES 63 75 67 85 92 90 88 67 89 69 78.5

18 URUGUAY 67 63 67 65 90 98 88 73 90 83 78.4

19 DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC92 72 63 85 88 78 80 77 80 67 78.2

20 IRELAND 80 75 77 65 98 84 72 72 93 65 78.1

21 CAMBODIA 76 57 80 100 83 89 75 83 63 74 78.0

22 GUATEMALA 82 63 77 91 75 78 75 70 76 85 77.2

23 VIETNAM 70 63 60 90 65 58 74 72 57 76 68.5


CAMBODIA INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ATTRACTING INVESTMENT


Prime Rents for Ready-Built Factories in Cambodia Q1 2016

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

SEZ Standalone Industrial Park SEZ Standalone

Phnom Penh Sihanoukville


CHINA DRIVING ARRIVALS, AIRLIFT AND DEVELOPMENT

Cambodia Bayon Airlines, a locally registered subsidiary of China’s state-

owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC confirmed that the

airline was considering purchasing ARJ21 aircraft for its fleet.

A group of Chinese investors plan to establish a $3 billion international resort center in Sihanoukville province to tap into the Kingdom’s burgeoning tourism industry.

The $3 billion investment comes from a China-based consortium in the Cambodia Golden Silver Gulf Resort project.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016H1

Total (ex. China) China Arrivals

Y-o-Y Growth (All) Y-o-Y Growth (China)

International Total Arrivals and % Change (2012 – H1 2016)

Source: Ministry of Tourism, Cambodia


CAMBODIA MARKET MOVING FORWARD

• Stable GDP

growth of circa

7%

• FDI from wider

Asia Pacific

region to

remain strong

• Land price

appreciation to

soften over

short-term

• Domestic

companies to

become

increasingly

cautions in run-

to 2018 election

• Infrastructure

improvements to

enhance viability

of Industrial

property

schemes

• Increased

diversification of

manufactured

goods across

two main SEZs,

Sihanoukville

and Phnom

Penh

• Demand for

high-quality

office stock to

be supported

principally by

expansion of

established

international

occupiers

• Aging office

stock to

continue to see

downward

pressure on

rents in wake of

new supply

• Overall retail

supply to be

increasingly

driven by mix-

used and landed

residential

schemes

• Aging retail

stock to

renovate

/reposition to

compete with

new supply

• More mid-range

international

brands to

explore

Cambodia

opportunities

• Number of

planned

condominium

projects to

reposition,

revise

development

concept or

delay

construction

• Residential

developers

looking to

explore

opportunities

beyond Phnom

Penh

© 2016 CB Richard Ellis (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy,completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, andis not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material arereserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior expresswritten permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost orexpense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

CBRE Cambodia | +855 23 964 099 | [email protected] | www.cbre.com.kh

CAMBODIA - ASIA’S NEW TIGER ECONOMY? · 2020-02-20 · CBRE CAMBODIA 6 CAMBODIA: ASIA’S NEW...

Documents

Transcript of CAMBODIA - ASIA’S NEW TIGER ECONOMY? · 2020-02-20 · CBRE CAMBODIA 6 CAMBODIA: ASIA’S NEW...