Calling the Waves by Name - Planners Conference · 2011-10-17 · Calling the Waves by Name Craig...

www.mncompass.org September 2011 September 2011 www.mncompass.org

Riding the Waves of Change American Planning Association, Minnesota Chapter, Annual Conference

Calling the Waves by Name

Craig Helmstetter, Wilder Research/Minnesota Compass

Cathy Bennett, ULI MN Regional Council of Mayors Housing Initiative


Craig Helmstetter

Wilder Research

Minnesota Compass Measuring progress. Inspiring action.

www.mncompass.org September 2011 www.mncompass.org September 2011

Compass

Working to change the equation

From:

To:

Good intentions +

No common base of information =

Inefficient decisions

Good intentions +

Sound, credible information +

Common sense of purpose =

Productive decisions

for a strong state &communities


Funders

3M Foundation

Blandin Foundation

Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota Foundation

Bush Foundation

Greater Twin Cities United Way

Mardag Foundation

The McKnight Foundation

The Minneapolis Foundation

The Saint Paul Foundation

Wells Fargo Foundation

Amherst H. Wilder Foundation

Initiative Foundation

Northland Foundation

Northwest Minnesota Foundation

Southern Minnesota Initiative Foundation

Southwest Initiative Foundation

West Central Initiative


Topic areas & Co-conveners Aging

– Dawn Simonson,

Metropolitan Area Agency on Aging

Children & Youth – Chris Ganzlin,

McKnight Foundation

Civic Engagement

– Sean Kershaw, Citizens League

Disparities – Sandra L. Vargas,

Minneapolis Foundation

Early Childhood – Barbara Yates,

Minnesota Early Learning Foundation

Economy and Workforce – Kathy Tunheim, Governor’s Office

– Bill Blazar, MN Chamber of Commerce

Education – Commissioner Alice Seagren,

Minnesota Department of Education

Environment – Steve Morse,

Minnesota Environmental Partnership

Health – Mary Brainerd, HealthPartners

Housing – Commissioner Timothy Marx,

Minnesota Housing Finance Agency

Immigration – Bill Blazar,

Minnesota Chamber of Commerce

Public Safety – Tom Johnson,

Council on Crime and Justice

Transportation – Robert Johns,

Center for Transportation Studies


Plunging Wave

Spil l ing Wave

Surging Wave

Love Wave

Four Big Waves


Plunging Wave

In a Plunging Breaker, the energy is released suddenly into a downwardly

directed mass of water. A considerable amount of air is trapped…

…for surfers, this is where the action is.


The Great

Recession


Economic output has been down

Source: MN Compass > Economy & Workforce > Economic Output


New home construction is way down

Source: US Census Bureau

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

New Building Permits (total units), Minnesota

Multifamily

Single Family


Needs of all types are up

Source: MN Compass > Demographics > Poverty


Implications of the continued down

economy

Fewer resources

Having to do more with less

Job uncertainty and instability


Spilling Wave

In a Spilling Breaker, the energy which the wave has transported over many

miles of sea is released gradually over a considerable distance. …these

waves may look like an advancing line of foam.

…they tend to make for poor surfing.


Shifting

suburban population


Suburban growth

Retrieved from MN Compass: Demographics > Population


Population

growth by

county 2000-

2009

Growth from

Rochester to

St. Cloud

Retrieved from MN Compass: Demographics > Population


Suburban growth slowed in late 2000s

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Estimated annual population growth rate

Scott

Carver

Dakota


Implications of suburban growth

More jobs in the suburbs

More “needs” in the suburban areas

More political power in the suburbs


Surging Wave (Tsunami)

…A sudden and large-scale displacement of water… propagating a fast-

moving ocean wave outward from the disturbed area - a tsunami. …it travels

with great speed through the ocean… Tsunami have very long wavelengths


Aging

www.mncompass.org September 2011 www.mncompass.org

Between 2010 and 2030, the number of

residents age 65+ in our state is expected to:

A. Decrease by one-third

B. Stay about the same

C. Increase by one-third

D. Double


Baby Boomers will swell the ranks

of retirees

Retrieved from MN Compass: Demographics > Age


2010 2030

Retirement–age (65+)

Workforce-age (18-64)

Minnesota’s “Dependency ratio” is

changing


Living longer

Living healthier

Contributing to society

– Wealth

– Volunteering

Worker shortage

Leadership vacuum

Increasing pressure

on support systems,

especially healthcare

Implications of aging

Pros: Cons:


Love Wave (earthquake)

(Named for British geophysicist Augustus Edward Hough Love)

Love waves shake the surface side-to-side

www.mncompass.org September 2011 www.mncompass.org September 2011 Increasing diversity


Population of Color has nearly

tripled in the past 20 years

Retrieved from MN Compass: Demographics > Race

www.mncompass.org September 2011 www.mncompass.org September 2011 Retrieved from MN Compass: Demographics > Race

4% Hispanic

(any race)

88%

1% 2%

2%

1% 3%

1%

2%


Immigration has also increased

Retrieved from MN Compass: Immigration > Population Trends


Foreign born population by

region of birth




The majority of our state’s population growth

is coming from populations of color

Retrieved from MN Compass: Demographics > Race


Overall, 1 in 6 people in Minnesota is

a person of color

- 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000

Digital (0-14)

Millennial (15-29)

Gen X (30-44)

Baby Boom (45-64)

Greatest Gen &Depression Gen (65+)

Of Color White (non-Hispanic)

Ratio

1 in 20

1 in 12

1 in 6

1 in 5

1 in 4


Racial and

ethnic diversity

is not spread

evenly

throughout the

state


Population of color

by ZIP code, 2000

The Twin Cities

are somewhat

segregated

along lines of

race and

ethnicity


Increasing diversity: Implications

Are we adequately preparing all children for the workforce and community leadership?

Are we providing everyone with equal opportunities, including housing and employment?


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Calling the Waves by Name - Planners Conference · 2011-10-17 · Calling the Waves by Name Craig...

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