CALLING - Metropolitan Transportation Commission Area 2040 Nela Richardson... · THE BAY AREA HOME...

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CALLING THE BAY AREA HOME Tackling the Housing Affordability and Displacement Challenge February 20, 2016 #HousingTheBay

Transcript of CALLING - Metropolitan Transportation Commission Area 2040 Nela Richardson... · THE BAY AREA HOME...

Page 1: CALLING - Metropolitan Transportation Commission Area 2040 Nela Richardson... · THE BAY AREA HOME Tackling the ... February 20, 2016 #HousingTheBay. Calling the Bay Area Home: Tackling

CALLING

THE BAY AREA

HOMETackling the Housing Affordability and Displacement ChallengeFebruary 20, 2016

#HousingTheBay

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Calling the Bay Area Home: Tackling the Affordable Housing and Displacement Challenge

February 16, 2016

Nela Richardson, PhDChief Economist, Redfin Corp.

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What do these 4 issues have in common?

● Economic Growth● Economic Opportunity● Income Inequality● Middle Class Wealth Creation

They all rely on affordable housing and access to high paying jobs

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Five key research findings 1. The housing market is chronically undersupplied (and the

rent is too darn high!)

2. Economic mobility depends on geography

3. Economically integrated neighborhoods are rare

4. Land use regulation effects economic inequality

5. Zoning threatens US productivity and economic growth

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First the good news….

1.7%

2.3%2.5%

2.7%2.9% 3.0%

3.6%

4.4%

Napa Los Angeles Sacramento San Diego California SanFrancisco

Riverside San Jose

2015 Job Growth Year-Over-Year Change

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Bay Area Median Sales Prices

Bay Area

Alameda $650KContra Costa $461KMarin $822KSan Francisco $1.15MSan Benito $479KSanta Clara $798KNapa $548K

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Bay Area prices surged after the housing downturn

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Prices are still rising, adding to affordability woes

0.0%

8.4%

14.9%

8.9%

7.7%

6.0%6.5%

4.1%

9.3%

7.7%

Fresno LosAngeles

Oakland OrangeCounty

Riverside San Diego SanFrancisco

San Jose VenturaCounty

National

Median sale price Year-Over-Year Change

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New construction hasn’t kept up with population increases

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New construction is skewed toward high-priced homes

Source: Metrostudy

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Supply isn’t keeping up with demand

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It’s a seller’s market in most of California

1.2

1.92.2

2.9 3.03.3 3.4 3.4

5.1

4.3

Oakland San Jose SanFrancisco

San Diego VenturaCounty

Los Angeles Fresno OrangeCounty

Riverside National

Months of Supply

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Northern California is a strong seller’s market

3.2

1.7 1.8

2.9

1.8

1.1 1.2

4.3

Marin SanFrancisco

San MateoSan Benito SantaClara

Alameda ContraCosta

National

Months of Supply

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The number of Bay Area homes for sale is declining

-22%Jan 2016

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

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30%

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May

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Year-Over-Year Change

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Homes for sale

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Oakland MSA

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San Francisco

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San Jose

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The Bay Area is becoming less affordable

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First-Time Buyer Housing Affordability Index

Q4 2014 Q4 2015

Source: California Association of Realtors

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US households are less willing (and able) to move

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Buyers are searching but having less success

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Homeownership continues to decline

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One in four Bay Area residents are searching outside Silicon Valley

City % of Total Views

from the Bay Area

Seattle 12.5%Sacramento 10.4%Los-Angeles 9.6%Portland 8.6%San Diego 4.3%

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Land use regulation has made housing more expensive

Source: White House Council of Economic Advisors

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Lack of housing supply increases income inequality

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Economic mobility is based on where you live

Source: http://www.voxeu.org/article/where-land-opportunity-intergenerational-mobility-us

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Integrated Cities are RareCity Balanced Mix Area High-end Area Affordable Area

Boston 51% 35% 15%Seattle 31% 10% 59%Washington, DC 30% 25% 45%

San Jose 24% 53% 24%Denver 24% 7% 69%San Diego 20% 40% 40%Los Angeles 19% 74% 7%

Chicago 17% 5% 79%Austin 16% 11% 73%Phoenix 13% 11% 76%Houston 12% 16% 72%Philadelphia 11% 6% 82%

Baltimore 11% 3% 86%San Francisco 10% 88% 2%

San Antonio 8% 5% 88%

Memphis 8% 4% 88%Jacksonville 7% 3% 90%Detroit 7% 1% 92%Indianapolis 6% 2% 92%Columbus 4% 1% 95%

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● The private sector can help – more construction

● Smart Zoning

● Accessible Transit

Solutions?

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Transit requires density

Rank City Transit Score

1 New York, NY 84.1

2 San Francisco, CA 80.4

3 Boston, MA 74.4

4 Washington, DC 70.6

5 Philadelphia, PA 66.8

6 Chicago, IL 64.7

7 Miami, FL 59.4

8 Baltimore, MD 57.8

9 Minneapolis, MN 57.5

10 Seattle, WA 57.0

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Thank you!

Redfin Researchhttps://www.redfin.com/[email protected]

@NelaRichardson