California’s Climate InitiativeCalifornia’s Climate Initiative

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Executive Order Established Statewide GHG Targets

By 2010, Reduce to 2000 Emission Levels*

By 2020, Reduce to 1990 Emission Levels**

By 2050, Reduce to 80% Below 1990 Levels

* Equals 60 Million Tons Emission Reductions, 11% Below BAU

** Equals 175 Million Tons Emission Reductions, 30% Below BAU

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Climate Action Team

CalEPA Secretary Chairs the Team BT&H, CDFA, Resources, PUC, ARB,

CIWMB, and CEC are RepresentedThe CAT Report:

– Key Recommendations– Emission Reduction Strategies– Market-based Program– Scenario Analysis– Environmental Justice Considerations– Report to Governor and Legislature in March 2006 and

Biennially Thereafter

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Key Recommendations Coming Soon….. Build on December 8 Draft Report

– Mandatory Reporting– Early Action Credit– Investment Strategy– Public Goods Charge for Transportation

Modifications made as a Result of Public Comment

15,000+ Commenters, Few Hundred that Contributed Substantive Comments

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Strategies UnderwayMotor Vehicle Regulations Efficiency MeasuresRenewable Portfolio StandardCalifornia Solar InitiativeHydrogen HighwayGreen BuildingsRecycling and Waste Reduction

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CAT Recommended Strategies

The CAT Recommends a Broad Range of Strategies including:– HFC Reductions– Forest Management– Water Use Efficiency– Appliance and Building Efficiency, Including

LSEs and Municipal Utilities– Smart Land Use– Conservation Tillage

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Impacts on the California Economy in 2020

In 2004Without

StrategiesWith

StrategiesImpacts % Change

Income 1,317 2,128 2,132 4 0.19

Jobs 16,460 20,704 20,787 83 0.40

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Based on Best Available Information to Date, Implementation of These Strategies will Achieve the Governor’s Targets

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Market-Based Program

Market-Based Program Integral To California’s Strategy For Reducing Emissions

National Approach To Capping Emissions Within An International Framework Most Effective

In The Absence Of National Action, California Can Lead By Example By Developing A Market-Based Program As A Model For National Action

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Market-Based Program Design

Design Options– Scope: Which Sources To Cover– Distribute of Emission Allowances– Auction– Emission Offsets– Other: Banking; Compliance Tracking;

Gases To Cover

Facility-Level Emissions Data Needed

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Scenarios

Global Emission Scenarios: A1fi, A2, And B1

Global Climate Models: GFDL, PCM, And Hadley3

Temperature And Precipitation Downscaled To California

Use Of An Hydrological Model (VIC) To Produce The Needed Hydrological Products

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(GtC

)

A1FiA2

A1

B2

A1T

B1

Change in California Annual Average Daily Mean Temperature Relative to 1971-2000

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

(oC

)Lower Emissions

Medium-highEmissions

Higher Emissions

Higher Emissions

Medium-high Emissions

Lower Emissions

Projected Annual Mean Temperatures In California

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Coastal Sea Level

Projections For The 2070-2099 Period– 5 To 24 Inches (B1)

– 7 To 30 Inches (A2)

– 8 To 35 Inches (A1fi)

Salt Water Intrusion into Levees and Flooding Risks

Observed Changes

Projections of global mean sea level rise

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Water Resources

Declining Snow Pack Will Aggravate The Already Overstretched Water Resources In The State

Increased Flooding Risk Potential Up To 90

Percent Reductions Of April 1st Snow Levels

PCM B1

GFDL A2

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Agriculture

Many Species Of Fruit Tress May Not Grow In The State Due The Lack Of Needed Winter Chill Hours

Some Pests Such As The Cotton/Pink Bollworm (Pbw) Will Increase Their Ranges The effect of total seasonal pest PBW larval densities (larval

days) under current weather (d) and with 2.5 degrees C (f) increase in daily temperature

total larval days (0.01 – 920)+2.5Ctotal larval days (0.02 – 917)

d. f.

Low High

total larval days (0.01 – 920)+2.5Ctotal larval days (0.02 – 917)

d. f.

Low High

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Forest and Natural Landscapes

Changes In Vegetation Patterns Will Occur

The Alpine And Subalpine Ecosystems Are Most Susceptible

Increases In The Number Of Large Fires Almost By 35% By Mid-century And 55% By The End Of This Century Under The A2 Scenario

Fire Impacts Are Less Severe Under The B1 Scenario (Lower Global Emissions)

Percent change in the expected minimum Number of large fires per year in California

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Public Health

Increase Of Heat-related Mortality

It Will Be More Difficult To Comply With Ambient Air Quality Standards For Ozone

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

Day

s

A2

B1

0

200

400

600

800

S an F ranc isco F re sno S ac ram e nto S anB e rnand ino

L o s A ng e lo s

Ex

ce

ss

He

at-

rela

ted

Mo

rta

lity

Base197 1-2000PC M B1

Had B 1

PC M A2

HAD A2

PC M A1 fi

Had A1 fi

Low T emperature Scenario (3-5 .4 ºF)

M edium T emperatu re Scenario (5 .5 -7 .9 ºF)

H igh T emperature Scenario (8 -10.4ºF )

H is torica l 1971 -2000

Projected annual heat-related mortality for 2070-2099 and historic mortality for 1971-200

Projected days with meteorology conducive to exceedancesOf the 1-hour state ambient air quality standard for ozone

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Electricity Annual Hydropower

Generation Will Decrease If Climate Change Reduces Precipitation Levels

Electricity Demand Will Increase With Temperature From 3 To 20 % By The End Of This Century

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Non-Exceedence Probability

GW

H/y

r

GFDL A2

Historical Climatic Contitions

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Next Two Years

Climate Action Team Will Work Together to Implement Emission Reduction Strategies

Market-Based Options Evaluated and Recommendations Made

Refine Economic AnalysisContinue Scenario Analysis including

Adaptation Options