CALIFORNIAENERGYDEMAND

20142024FINALFORECAST

Volume1:StatewideElectricityDemand,EndUserNaturalGasDemand,andEnergyEfficiency

DECEMBER 2013

CEC 200 2013 004 SF V1

CALIFORNIAENERGYCOMMISSION

EdmundG.BrownJr.,Governor

CaliforniaEnergyCommission

STAFFFINALREPORT

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONBryan Alcorn Mark Ciminelli Nicholas Fugate Asish Gautam Chris Kavalec Kate Sullivan Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Contributing AuthorsChris Kavalec Project ManagerAndrea Gough Office Manager DEMAND ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ANALYSIS DIVISION Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director

DISCLAIMER Staff members of the California Energy Commission prepared this report. As such, it does not necessarily represent the views of the Energy Commission, its employees, or the State of California. The Energy Commission, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the Energy Commission nor has the Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

ThedemandforecastisthecombinedproductofthehardworkandexpertiseofnumerousCaliforniaEnergyCommissionstaffmembersintheDemandAnalysisOffice.Inadditiontothecontributingauthorslistedpreviously,MohsenAbrishamipreparedthecommercialsectorforecast.MehrzadSoltaniNiahelpedpreparetheindustrialforecast.TedDangrantheSummaryModel.CaryGarciapreparedtheweatherdata.AndreaGoughsuperviseddatapreparation.StevenMacandKeithOBrienpreparedthehistoricalenergyconsumptiondata.NahidMovassaghforecastedconsumptionfortheagricultureandwaterpumpingsectors.CynthiaRogersandDougKemmerdevelopedtheenergyefficiencyprogramestimates.MargaretSheridanprovidedestimatesfordemandresponseprogramimpactsandcontributedtotheresidentialforecast.MitchTianpreparedthepeakdemandforecast.RavinderpalVaidprovidedtheprojectionsofcommercialfloorspaceandnumberofhouseholds.FloydKeneippandSuryaSwamiofNavigantConsultingprovidedvaluableassistanceindevelopingtheestimatesofadditionalachievableenergyefficiencysavings.

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ABSTRACT

TheCaliforniaEnergyDemand20142024FinalForecast,Volume1:StatewideElectricityDemandandMethods,EndUserNaturalGasDemand,andEnergyEfficiencydescribestheCaliforniaEnergyCommissionsfinalbaselineforecastsfor20142024electricityconsumption,peak,andnaturalgasdemandforeachoffivemajorelectricityplanningareasandthreenaturalgasdistributionareasandforthestateasawhole.Thisforecastsupportstheanalysisandrecommendationsofthe2012IntegratedEnergyPolicyReportUpdateandthe2013IntegratedEnergyPolicyReport.Theforecastincludesthreescenarios:ahighenergydemandcase,alowenergydemandcase,andamidenergydemandcase.Thehighenergydemandcaseincorporatesrelativelyhigheconomic/demographicgrowth,relativelylowelectricityandnaturalgasrates,andrelativelylowefficiencyprogramandselfgenerationimpacts.Thelowenergydemandcaseincludeslowereconomic/demographicgrowth,higherassumedrates,andhigherefficiencyprogramandselfgenerationimpacts.Themidcaseusesinputassumptionsatlevelsbetweenthehighandlowcases.Forecastsareprovidedatboththeplanningareaandclimatezonelevel.Inadditiontothebaselineforecast,additionalachievableenergyefficiencysavingsareestimatedforthethreeinvestorownedutilityserviceterritories.Adjustedforecastsincorporatingthesesavingsareprovidedfortheseareas.

Keywords:Electricity,demand,consumption,forecast,weathernormalization,peak,naturalgas,selfgeneration,conservation,energyefficiency,climatezone,forecastmethods,additionalachievableenergyefficiency.

Pleaseusethefollowingcitationforthisreport:

Kavalec,Chris,NicholasFugate,BryanAlcorn,MarkCiminelli,AsishGautam,KateSullivan,andMalachiWengGutierrez.2013.CaliforniaEnergyDemand20142024FinalForecast,Volume1:StatewideElectricityDemand,EndUserNaturalGasDemand,andEnergyEfficiency.CaliforniaEnergyCommission,ElectricitySupplyAnalysisDivision.PublicationNumber:CEC2002013004SFVI.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS Page

Acknowledgements.............................................................................................................................i

Abstract...............................................................................................................................................iii

EXECUTIVESUMMARY..................................................................................................................1

Introduction..........................................................................................................................................1

BaselineElectricityForecastResults.................................................................................................1

BaselineNaturalGasForecastResults.............................................................................................4

CommittedConservation/Efficiency................................................................................................5

AdditionalAchievableEnergyEfficiency........................................................................................6

SummaryofChangestoForecast......................................................................................................8

CHAPTER1:StatewideBaselineForecastResultsandMethods.............................................9

Introduction..........................................................................................................................................9

SummaryofChangestoForecast....................................................................................................10

ChangesFromRevisedtoFinalForecast...............................................................................11

StatewideBaselineForecastResults...............................................................................................12

AnnualElectricityConsumption.............................................................................................14

StatewideBaselinePeakDemand...........................................................................................17

BaselineNaturalGasDemandForecast.................................................................................21

OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions.......................................................................................22

EconomicandDemographicAssumptions...........................................................................25

ElectricityandNaturalGasRateProjections.........................................................................32

Conservation/EfficiencyImpacts.............................................................................................35

DemandResponse.....................................................................................................................36

SelfGeneration..........................................................................................................................37

ElectricLightDutyVehicles....................................................................................................41

AdditionalElectrification.........................................................................................................44

NaturalGasLightDutyVehicles............................................................................................46

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SubregionalElectricityAnalysis..............................................................................................46

HistoricalElectricityConsumptionEstimates.......................................................................47

StructureofReport............................................................................................................................48

CHAPTER2:EndUserNaturalGasDemandForecast.............................................................51

StatewideBaselineForecastResults...............................................................................................51

PlanningAreaBaselineResults.......................................................................................................55

PacificGasandElectricPlanningArea..................................................................................55

SouthernCaliforniaGasCompanyPlanningArea...............................................................61

SanDiegoGas&ElectricPlanningArea................................................................................67

CHAPTER3:CommittedEnergyEfficiencyandConservation..............................................75

Introduction........................................................................................................................................75

CommittedEnergyEfficiency..........................................................................................................75

CommittedEfficiencyPrograms.............................................................................................80

PriceEffects................................................................................................................................83

BuildingCodesandApplianceStandards.............................................................................83

CHAPTER4:AdditionalAchievableEnergyEfficiency...........................................................87

Background...................................................................................................................