California Water Plan Update 2013 California Water Sustainability Indicators
California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Water Management
description
Transcript of California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Water Management
California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Water Management
Andrew Schwarz P.E.California Department of Water Resources
California’s Wild Precipitation Regime
California’s Wild Precipitation Regime
Monthly Average Runoff of Sacramento River System
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
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3.0
3.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Ru
no
ff (m
illio
n a
cre
-ft)
Month
1906-1955
1956-2007
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Ru
no
ff (m
illio
n a
cre-f
t)
Month
1901-1955
1956-2007
Monthly Average Runoff in San Joaquin River System
Snowpack Changes
We had already lost 1.5 MAF (1.85 billion m3) of snowpack between 1950 and 2010
Sea water
Possible Approaches
Study: “Climate Change Characterization and Analysis in California Water Resources Planning Studies”
http://www.water.ca.gov/climatechange/docs/DWR_CCCStudy_FinalReport_Dec23.pdf
California Water Plan 2013 Approach
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Planning for an Uncertain FutureSeeking shared understanding of :
• The existing state (of water) in the regions• A range of multiple, plausible future
conditions• What the options are to manage current and
future conditions• The options that seem to make the most
sense to invest in, in different regions
CWP Uses the WEAP Model
Customized Representation of Central Valley
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CWP Planning Approach Designed for Long-term Decision-making
• The future is uncertain: no single prediction of the future is adequate for planning
• There is no silver bullet: there are many options and important tradeoffs among them
• Analysis can only inform policy decisions: Analysis supports deliberation over tradeoffs
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19 Climate Scenarios
• 12 Climate projections taken directly from GCMs
• 4 Ensemble projections representing extreme conditions
• 3 runs of historical sequence
Downscaled AOGCM climate sequences
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% MonthlyIFRs Not Met
Urban water supply reliability(%)
Agricultural water supply reliability (%)
Performance of “Current Approach”
LowerPerformance
36 ScenarioResults
CurrentApproach
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Urban water supply reliability(%)
Agricultural water supply reliability (%)
Analysis Identified andCharacterized Poor Outcomes
CurrentApproach
% MonthlyIFRs Not Met
“X” = Pooroutcomes(bad for 2 of 3metrics)
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Urban water supply reliability(%)
Agricultural water supply reliability (%)
Climate Trends Define “Hot and Dry” Vulnerable Scenario
CurrentApproach
% MonthlyIFRs Not Met
Poor outcomesdescribed by“Hot and Dry”scenario