CALIFORNIA 48TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL

MARCH 4-6, 2018COMPILED FROM 757 RESPONSES

Copyright © 2018, Change Research, a Public Benefit Corporation

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PART I

2018 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION OUTLOOK

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Do you expect to vote in the primary for US Congress, US Senate, and California Governor on June 5, 2018?

91%Yes, I plan to vote in the primary

9%No, I do not plan to vote in the primary

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Primary Outlook - Long Ballot, No DescriptionsPolling based only on respondents who said they would vote in the primary (688 respondents)

35%Dana Rohrabacher,

Republican.

3%Michael Kotick,

Democrat

4%Rachel Payne,

Democrat

10%Harley Rouda,

Democrat.

1% Omar Siddiqui, Democrat. | 1% Boyd Roberts, Democrat. | 1% Tony Zarkades, Democrat. | 3% Stelian Onufrei, Republican. | 2% Chase Geiser, Republican. | 1% Edward Boyd, No Party Preference. | 3% John Gabbard, Republican. | 2% Kevin Kensinger, Independent. |

2% Deanie Schaarsmith, Democrat. | 5% of voters who indicated they would vote in the primary would choose not to vote given this field.

10%Laura Oatman,

Democrat

7%Hans Keirstead,

Democrat

7%Scott Baugh, Republican

4%Brandon Reiser,

Libertarian

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Primary Outlook - Long Ballot, candidates with a * had descriptions Numbers in parentheses show change from long ballot without descriptionsPolling based only on respondents who said they would vote in the primary (688 respondents)

13%Hans Keirstead, Democrat.* (+6)

8%Omar Siddiqui, Democrat.* (+7)

5%Laura Oatman, Democrat (-5)

0% Tony Zarkades, Democrat. | 1% Paul Martin, Republican. | 2% Brandon Reiser, Libertarian. 1% Kevin Kensinger, Independent. | 2% Chase Geiser, Republican. | 0% Edward Boyd, No Party Preference. | 1% John Gabbard, Republican. | 2% Rachel Payne*, Democrat. | 0% Deanie

Schaarsmith, Democrat. | 3% of voters who indicated they would vote in the primary would choose not to vote given this field.

12%Scott Baugh,

Republican.* (+5)

29%Dana Rohrabacher,

Republican.* (-6)

10%Harley Rouda,

Democrat.*

6%Stelian Onufrei, Republican* (+3)

3%Michael Kotick,

Democrat*

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Primary Outlook - Narrowed ballot, All With DescriptionsScott Baugh was omitted from this scenario.Polling based only on respondents who said they would vote in the primary (688 respondents)

18%Hans Keirstead,

Democrat.

41%Dana Rohrabacher,

Republican.

14%Omar Siddiqui,

Democrat.

11% said Stelian Onufrei, Republican.2% of voters who indicated they would vote in the primary would choose not to vote given this field.

14%Harley Rouda,

Democrat.

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PRIMARY ELECTION SCENARIO TAKEAWAYS

● Rohrabacher is clearly atop the field, both amongst the extended list of candidates and in a narrowed field.

● The field of Democrats are splitting the vote.● Second place Republican Scott Baugh polls at

about the same level as the leading Democrats on the long ballot.

● This suggests that if all of the possible candidates run in the primary, Baugh and Rohrabacher could potentially be the top two vote-getters, advancing to the general and leaving Democrats out altogether.

● The inclusion of candidate descriptions saw some of the leading Democrats gain points. Kierstead gained 6 points and Siddiqui gained 7 points.

● For Republicans, with the inclusion of descriptions, Baugh gained 5 points and Rohrabacher lost 6 points.

● In a narrowed field without Baugh, Rohrabacher is the clear leader and Kierstead is the runner-up and Democratic leader.

● Siddiqui and Rouda are close behind, and split the vote with 14% each.

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Methodology

Results based on 757 respondents identified from voter files as CA-48 residents who answered most of the questions.

Sample demographics are close to the electorate for age, gender, and ethnicity.

Post-stratification done on age, gender, ethnicity, 2016 presidential vote.

WEIGHTINGVoters in California’s 48th Congressional District were solicited, between March 4 and March 6, to take a survey conducted in English.

Change Research applied proprietary BiasCorrect approach to solicitations in order toyield a mostly representative sample.

1,182 people started the survey and 757registered voters completed it.

TARGETING

THANK YOUContact:

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