Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore...

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Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and Michael Maret Shippensburg University ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! W ashington,D C Baltim ore

Transcript of Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore...

Page 1: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area

Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and Michael MaretShippensburg University

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Washington, DC

Baltimore

Page 2: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Research objectives

Generate forecasts of urban growth in the BMRo Incorporate “drivers”

of urbanizationo Loosely couple with

hydrologic model to capture human-environmental feedbacks

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Washington, DC

BaltimoreCNH: Dynamic Coupling of the

Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban GrowthNSF award ID

0709537

Page 3: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

How SLEUTH works

Calibration

1984

Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505

Page 4: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

How SLEUTH works

Calibration

19841992

Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505

Page 5: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

How SLEUTH works

Calibration

198419922001

Forecasting

Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505

Page 6: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

How SLEUTH works

Calibration

Forecasting

Validation

1984199220012006

Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505

Page 7: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Research Design

Base Sewer service areas

Pop + Emp for

RPDsUnconstrai

ned- - -

Constrained with Pop

+ Emp forecasts

MIN MIN MIN

SQ SQ SQ

MAX MAX MAX

Assessing urbanization “drivers” with the exclusion

layer

Ass

ess

ing

gro

wth

rate

s

Page 8: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

SLEUTH’s exclusion layers

Page 9: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Validation (unconstrained)

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Urb

an a

rea

(km

2 )

Year

Mapped

Base-unconstrained

Sewer-unconstrained

RPD-unconstrainedSLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients remain unadjusted

Page 10: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Validation (unconstrained)

Page 11: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

But the future is expected to be different from the past

Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts.

Page 12: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

8,0001,000

1008060

40

20

06,4001,000 13,0001,000

Perc

ent

of

Lan

d a

s U

rban

Population Intensity(residents/km2)

Employment Intensity (jobs/km2)

Human Intensity (humans/km2)

Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts.

Page 13: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Validation (constrained)

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Urb

an a

rea

(km

2 )

Year

Mapped

RPD-Min

RPD-Status quo

RPD-MaxAdjust SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients

Page 14: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Validation (constrained)

Page 15: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Validation (constrained)

Page 16: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Constraining the forecasts

Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts.

Page 17: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Constraining the forecasts

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

Urb

an a

rea

(km

2 )

Year

RPD-Min

RPD-Status quo

RPD-Max

Adjust SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients

Page 18: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Constraining the forecasts

Page 19: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Conclusions and lessons learned

SLEUTH’s calibration process can be used to evaluate “drivers” of urbanization

Validation is critical for:o Improving our understanding of how the

urban system behavesoQuantifying model uncertaintyo Incorporating additional models to

inform SLEUTH’s forecasts

Page 20: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

References Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group.

Round 7-B population and employment forecasts. Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed

land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505 Jantz, C.A., S.J. Goetz, P. Claggett, and D. Donato (2010). Modeling

regional patterns of urbanization in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 34:1-16.

Maret, Michael (2011). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to identify "drivers" of land use change in the Baltimore metropolitan region. Geoenvironmental research. Student white paper published at http://webspace.ship.edu/cajant/student_white_papers.html

McConnell, W.J at al. (2011). Research on Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Approach, Challenges, and Strategies. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 92 (2): 218-228

THANK YOU

Page 21: Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and.

Claire Welty (PI), Andrew Miller, Bernadette Hanlon, and Michael P. McGuire

Claire Jantz (PI) and Scott A. Drzyzgawith Michael Maret.

Reed Maxwell (PI)

James Smith (PI)Mary Lynn Baeck Gary Fisher

CNH: Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban

Growth

NSF award ID0709537