Caglioni, Fusco, Minvielle & Moreno - input2012
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Prospecting the Evolution of a Suburban Wine-
growing Region through Multi-Agent Systems
Matteo CAGLIONI1, Giovanni FUSCO1, Paul MINVIELLE2, Diego MORENO1
Input 2012 Special Session: Spatial Strategic Foresight
Cagliari, May 12th2012
Matteo CAGLIONI1, Giovanni FUSCO1, Paul MINVIELLE2, Diego MORENO1
1 UMR 7300 ESPACE, Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis2 UMR 7303 TELEMME, Aix-Marseille-Université
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Content Overview
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Geosimulation
4. Conclusion
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N
N
Le Castellet
La Cadière Le Beausset
The Bandol wine-growing region1
Bandol AOC perimeter
1941: Obtention of the AOC Label
AOC perimeter: 1570 ha planted in 2000 (RGA).
A wine-growing region between
Marseilles and Toulon
N
0 5km
d’Azur
St Cyr s/mer
Bandol
Evenos
Sanary
Ollioules
0 2 km
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The socio-economic context
• The wine-producing world : wine-growers / wine-
makers, the Bandol Association (ODG), the INAO
• The urban world : land developers, households,
municipal governments, metropolitan government
1
municipal governments, metropolitan government
• Growing concern from ODG and INAO on the
consequences of municipal/metropolitan governments
plans on the future of wine-growing
: social demand for a prospective research on
wine-growing landscape in the Bandol region
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Exploring the future of vineyard landscapes
• A research action within the PATERMED project (ANR
Systerra): exploring the future of vineyard landscapes in
the Bandol region – on going partnership with INAO and
ODG Bandol
1
• Urban / Rural interaction: urban pressure on agricultural
land + financial input from urban development into
winegrowing
• Importance of agent strategies and interactions resulting
in (and being shaped by) spatial structures
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Modelling urban / rural interaction
• Modeling choices : MAS approach + Sensitivity Analysis
for scenario building
• Which elements and process are to be included in the
model? What implementation within a MAS approach?
2
model? What implementation within a MAS approach?
• What outputs are relevant in a spatially informed
strategic foresight?
Two-phase modelling process: 1) Model development and
exploration for a small virtual world
2) Model implementation and
validation with real-world data
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Input - Output Model Structure
cadastral map
land use
future cadastral map
future land use
NetLogo
2
MODEL
Land use plan
wine growers’ structure
future wine growers’
structure
exogenous
variables:
-housing demand
-urban land price
-price of wine
-interest rate
-:
Synthetic Indicators:
- Wine-growing economy
- Landscape Ecology
- :
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Semantic categories of space
Land use Land use plan
URBAN
- Consolidated city
- Road network
EXISTING
URBANISATION
Space under
urban pressure
Pixels and
parcels
2
- Road network
- Subdivisions
- Individual housing
AGRICULTURAL
- Vineyards
- Rural wasteland
- Other agriculture
NATURAL
WATER BODIES
NEW
URBANISATION
POSSIBLE
NEW
URBANISATION
FORBIDDEN: but
not for everyone
parcels
neighbouring
urban land
uses
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Spatial structure of the agents2
Agents
wine
grower
Agents
parcel
[list of parcels]
parcels patches
(landscape
ecology
units)[list of cells] 25m x 25m
cells
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Wine-grower agents:
lifecycle and social relationshipsage capital
2
At the end of the active life (65years), how many children want to take over parent’s activity?
0Sell property or
Sharecropping
1Property
transmission
2+Property
division
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Different contexts for land sale
1. 2. 3.
2
From winegrowers at the
end of their career without
children who want to take
over the activity
From winegrowers without
residual financial capital and
negative revenues
From winegrowers
with parcel(s) under
urban pressure and
urbanizable
The winegrower agent sell (all) their
parcels and exits the system
(eventually sharecropping agreement)
The winegrower agent sells one
or more parcels and can buy
other parcels further away
To other winegrower(s) To real estate promoters
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Winegrower’s economic function
= α S - t K - f ( S , dc ) - f ( c )
Bandol produce capital cost logistic costs fix costs
(including cost of living)
independent
cooperative
independent
cooperative
independent
cooperative
∆Cumulated
capital
2
(including cost of living)
K capital
S surface [ha]
dc distance from the logistic center
α value of net winegrowing produce per ha
t interest rate
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Flow diagrams of processes in the model
Process of parcel purchase Process of parcel sale
Process of property transmission
2
Process of land development through individual housingProcess of land development through subdivision
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A small wine-growing region3
LandLand--UseUse LandLand--OwnershipOwnership
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Trend Scenario after 20 years3
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Trend Scenario after 40 years3
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Increased subdivision development after 40 years3
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Increased individual housing development
after 40 years3
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Lower Bandol wine price, after 40 years3
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Conclusion: what the model can do
• Dialectics between agent micro-behaviours and
emergence of meso- and macro- spatial structures
• Role of basic social and economical interaction within
vineyards development
4
vineyards development
• Role of land ownership structure and demographic
variables within vineyards and urban development
• Impacts of urban pressure, land-use plans and
exogenous economic variables on vineyards landscapes
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Conclusion: what the model cannot do
• Land-use plans and urban dynamics are exogenous
• Very limited modeling of interaction with different
agricultural activities
4
• Topological / accessibility properties of road networks are
not modeled
• Landscape modeling is limited to land-use quantification
(no qualitative aspects like perceptions, heritage
conservation, nor 3D rendering of landscapes)
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Conclusion: the role of a MAS model in
Spatial Strategic Foresight
• Not a prediction model, but a tool to explore the possible
futures of the landscape under coherent sets of
hypotheses
• Integration of socio-economic and spatial processes,
4
beyond the black box of CA modeling
• But : danger of over-complexifying process modeling
• A precious tool to understand the role of key variables
and policies in a spatially informed strategic foresight
: next step: scenario building
For the model as well as for the strategic foresight approach,
validation will come from real-world application.
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Weak urban pressure, after 40 years
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Higher Bandol wine price, after 40 years
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Lower urban land price, after 40 years
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Higher urban land price, after 40 years
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Lower children take over probability, after 40 years