CAFE baseline scenario CAFE project for Environment DG Stakeholders Meeting 27-28/05/2003 Dr. L....

CAFE baseline scenarioCAFE baseline scenario

CAFE project for Environment DGCAFE project for Environment DGStakeholders Meeting 27-28/05/2003Stakeholders Meeting 27-28/05/2003

Dr. L. MantzosDr. L. Mantzos

EE33M-Lab / ICCS-NTUAM-Lab / ICCS-NTUAcontact: [email protected]: [email protected]

Baseline scenario constructionBaseline scenario construction

• Starting point:Starting point:– Baseline scenario constructed in the context of the Baseline scenario constructed in the context of the

“Long Range Energy Modelling” framework contract by “Long Range Energy Modelling” framework contract by Energy and Transport DGEnergy and Transport DG

• FinalisedFinalised in December 2002 in December 2002• Covers EU Member States (PRIMES model), the 13 EU Covers EU Member States (PRIMES model), the 13 EU

candidate countries (ACE model), Norway and Switzerland candidate countries (ACE model), Norway and Switzerland (ACE model)(ACE model)

• A detailed analysis of assumptions and results can be found A detailed analysis of assumptions and results can be found in the forthcoming publication of Energy and Transport DG:in the forthcoming publication of Energy and Transport DG:

““European Energy and Transport – Trends to 2030”European Energy and Transport – Trends to 2030”

CAFE scenariosCAFE scenarios

• ““Without climate policy measures” scenarioWithout climate policy measures” scenario– Identical to LREM baseline for EU Member StatesIdentical to LREM baseline for EU Member States– Small differences exist for EU Acceding countries:Small differences exist for EU Acceding countries:

• Results provided are the output of PRIMES modelResults provided are the output of PRIMES model• Developed in the context of the LREM project in the meantimeDeveloped in the context of the LREM project in the meantime

• ““With climate policy measures” scenarioWith climate policy measures” scenario– Assumes the existence of an EU wide CO2 emissions trading Assumes the existence of an EU wide CO2 emissions trading

regimeregime– The permit price ranges fromThe permit price ranges from

• 12 Euro per t of CO2 in 2010 to 16 Euro in 2015 and 20 Euro in 202012 Euro per t of CO2 in 2010 to 16 Euro in 2015 and 20 Euro in 2020• Remains constant thereafterRemains constant thereafter• Leads to adjustment of the behaviour of economic agents, I.e. Leads to adjustment of the behaviour of economic agents, I.e.

producers and consumers of energy, through changes in relative producers and consumers of energy, through changes in relative pricesprices

– Acts as the CAFE baseline scenarioActs as the CAFE baseline scenario

The baseline scenario incorporatesThe baseline scenario incorporates

• Updated energy, economic and financial information (2000 acts Updated energy, economic and financial information (2000 acts as the base year)as the base year)

• Recent trends and policies in placeRecent trends and policies in place– The fuel efficiency agreement with car industryThe fuel efficiency agreement with car industry– Market liberalisation for electricity and gasMarket liberalisation for electricity and gas– Existing policies on energy efficiency and renewable energy forms Existing policies on energy efficiency and renewable energy forms – Ongoing infrastructure projects Ongoing infrastructure projects – Nuclear policies by Member State and Acceding countryNuclear policies by Member State and Acceding country

• For analytical purposes the baseline scenario does For analytical purposes the baseline scenario does notnot include include any new policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsany new policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions– This is to assist in identifying the remaining gaps in the energy and This is to assist in identifying the remaining gaps in the energy and

transport sectors with respect to the EU’s Kyoto commitmenttransport sectors with respect to the EU’s Kyoto commitment– The incorporation of permit prices under the “with climate policy measures” The incorporation of permit prices under the “with climate policy measures”

scenario leads to the adoption of policy measures in a cost effective way scenario leads to the adoption of policy measures in a cost effective way for the energy system so as to reduce CO2 emissionsfor the energy system so as to reduce CO2 emissions

Key assumptions for the Baseline scenario (1)Key assumptions for the Baseline scenario (1)

• World energy prices develop moderately over the projection World energy prices develop moderately over the projection periodperiod– POLES model results: scenario constructed in the context of the LREM POLES model results: scenario constructed in the context of the LREM

Framework contract assumes Framework contract assumes • Continuation of current world energy market structuresContinuation of current world energy market structures• Conventional view on fossil fuel reserves / abundant resources in the horizon Conventional view on fossil fuel reserves / abundant resources in the horizon

to 2030to 2030

• Demographic assumptionsDemographic assumptions– EUROSTAT historical data and projections used for populationEUROSTAT historical data and projections used for population– Projections of the United Nations Global Urban Observatory and Statistics Projections of the United Nations Global Urban Observatory and Statistics

Unit of UN-HABITATUnit of UN-HABITAT used for household size used for household size• Also for population growth in Acceding countries beyond 2003Also for population growth in Acceding countries beyond 2003

• Weather assumptions: 2000 weather conditions maintained Weather assumptions: 2000 weather conditions maintained throughout the projection horizonthroughout the projection horizon

International fuel prices ($00 per boe)International fuel prices ($00 per boe)

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

27.5

30.0

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Oil Gas Coal

Key assumptions of the baseline scenario (2)Key assumptions of the baseline scenario (2)

• Macroeconomic assumptionsMacroeconomic assumptions– GDP growth in the current EU reaches 2.3% pa on average in 2000-2030GDP growth in the current EU reaches 2.3% pa on average in 2000-2030

• Modest compared to the ambitions of the Lisbon strategyModest compared to the ambitions of the Lisbon strategy• High compared with the current weak state of the EU economyHigh compared with the current weak state of the EU economy

– Faster economic growth in Acceding countries (in the ACC region annual Faster economic growth in Acceding countries (in the ACC region annual GDP growth reaches 3.5% pa in 2000-2030)GDP growth reaches 3.5% pa in 2000-2030)

– Gradual convergence of the EU economies is assumed to continue Gradual convergence of the EU economies is assumed to continue throughout the projection periodthroughout the projection period

• However, even by 2030, per capita GDP in acceding countries remains more However, even by 2030, per capita GDP in acceding countries remains more than 30% lower compared to the EU (from 55.5% lower in 2000)than 30% lower compared to the EU (from 55.5% lower in 2000)

– Economic modernisation also continues throughout the projection period Economic modernisation also continues throughout the projection period involving:involving:

• Restructuring away of primary and secondary sectors and towards servicesRestructuring away of primary and secondary sectors and towards services• Dematerialisation of industrial production; a trend driven by aDematerialisation of industrial production; a trend driven by a

– Shift away from energy intensive processesShift away from energy intensive processes– Increasing importance of new industrial activities with high value added and a Increasing importance of new industrial activities with high value added and a

lower material baselower material base (for example pharmaceuticals and cosmetics; computer (for example pharmaceuticals and cosmetics; computer equipment etc.)equipment etc.)

Value added growth in EU-25 Value added growth in EU-25 % change from 1990 levels% change from 1990 levels

14.9

44.1

79.2

14.0

46.7

88.3

27.4

67.9

115.7

172.4

116.3

137.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2010 2020 2030

Energy intensive industry (+2.1% pa in 2000-2030)Other industries (+2.5% pa)Services (+2.6% pa)

Structure of the EU-25 economy, Structure of the EU-25 economy, shares in gross value added 2000, 2010, 2030shares in gross value added 2000, 2010, 2030

20.3 20.1 20.0 20.1 19.8 19.825.4 25.8 23.4

68.4 69.7 71.1 68.8 70.2 71.5 57.4 59.8 65.2

5.74.5

7.011.4 9.9 8.4

3.02.2 1.72.5

1.72.7 2.37.88.57.17.98.6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2030 2000 2010 2030 2000 2010 2030

EU25 EU ACC

Industry Services Agriculture Other

Structure of the EU-25 industrial sector, Structure of the EU-25 industrial sector, shares in gross industrial value added 2000, 2010, 2030shares in gross industrial value added 2000, 2010, 2030

4.5 4.0 3.2 4.5 4.0 3.2 4.5 3.6 2.6

11.5 11.8 12.0 11.7 12.0 12.0 8.0 9.7 10.8

4.16.1 5.6 5.1

8.3 6.5 6.8 7.3

12.0 11.9 11.511.6 11.4 11.1 19.6 19.5 17.6

44.6 46.2 49.9 45.1 46.9 50.8 34.5 35.0 38.8

14.3 13.3 11.4 14.0 12.8 11.020.8 19.8 17.8

3.64.43.74.4 4.2

8.88.88.28.68.7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2010 2030 2000 2010 2030 2000 2010 2030

EU25 EU ACCMetal industries Chemicals Non metallic minerals Paper and PulpFood, drink, tobacco Engineering Other industries

CAFE BASELINE SCENARIO RESULTSCAFE BASELINE SCENARIO RESULTS

““With Climate Policies Case”With Climate Policies Case”

Key Findings Key Findings

– Strong de-linking of economic growth from energyStrong de-linking of economic growth from energy• Energy intensity improves by 1.9% pa in 2000-2030 Energy intensity improves by 1.9% pa in 2000-2030

– Significant changes occur in the fuel mix of the energy systemSignificant changes occur in the fuel mix of the energy system• Strong penetration for natural gas and renewable energy forms Strong penetration for natural gas and renewable energy forms • The market share of all other energy forms declines over the The market share of all other energy forms declines over the

projection periodprojection period– CO2 emissions follow a declining pattern in the horizon to CO2 emissions follow a declining pattern in the horizon to

2010 but grow thereafter2010 but grow thereafter• -4.1% from 1990 levels in 2010, -2.2 in 2020, +2.2 in 2030-4.1% from 1990 levels in 2010, -2.2 in 2020, +2.2 in 2030• Carbon intensity improvement worsens beyond 2015Carbon intensity improvement worsens beyond 2015

– Import dependency reaches up to 65.3% in 2030 (52.7 in Import dependency reaches up to 65.3% in 2030 (52.7 in 2010) from 47.2% in 20002010) from 47.2% in 2000

– Power generation and transport sector are the key drivers as Power generation and transport sector are the key drivers as regards the evolution of the energy systemregards the evolution of the energy system

EU-25 Primary Energy Indicators, 1990-2030EU-25 Primary Energy Indicators, 1990-2030Indexed to 1990=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 1990=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110GDPPrimary Energy DemandCO2 emissions

Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

EU-25 Primary Energy Needs by FuelEU-25 Primary Energy Needs by Fuel% share in Gross Inland Consumption% share in Gross Inland Consumption

12.7 13.7 14.4 14.7 14.0 13.4 11.6 10.6 10.1

27.7 22.0 18.4 15.212.5 10.4

9.2 9.1 9.5

38.439.6

38.537.5

36.736.4

35.9 35.2 34.7

16.719.5

22.826.0

28.7 31.033.7 34.7 35.0

4.5 5.1 5.8 6.5 8.0 8.7 9.5 10.2 10.5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Nuclear Solids Liquids Gas Renewables

Structure of CO2 emissions by sector in EU-25 Structure of CO2 emissions by sector in EU-25 % share in total CO2 emissions% share in total CO2 emissions

17.5 16.2 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.4

6.8 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2

13.8 13.412.6 12.6 13.0 13.1 12.8 12.5 12.1

21.1 23.5 26.4 28.7 30.4 31.3 32.0 32.1 31.6

34.3 33.7 34.1 32.9 31.4 30.9 31.1 31.5 32.8

6.5 6.3 5.4 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.9

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

industry tertiary households transports power generation others

Additional CO2 Emissions from 1990 levelsAdditional CO2 Emissions from 1990 levels Mt of CO2 Mt of CO2

-129

-240

-92

-239-214-228

-220-186

173

424

282 385

2000 2010 2020 2030

supply side industry and buildings transports

Comparison to the NCLP caseComparison to the NCLP caseNCLP denotes the “Without climate policy case”NCLP denotes the “Without climate policy case”% difference from NCLP case% difference from NCLP case

-1.8

-3.5 -3.6

-1.7

-3.3 -3.3

-2.4

-5.4-5.9

-3.8

-8.8

-10.5

-3.5

-8.3

-10.1

-5.3

-11.7

-12.8-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

EU25 EU ACC

Gross inland consumption CO2 emissions

Comparison to the NCLP case – changes in gross inland consumptionComparison to the NCLP case – changes in gross inland consumption% difference from NCLP case% difference from NCLP case

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

EU25 EU ACC

Solids

Liquids

Gas

Nuclear

Renewables

% change from baseline levels

Comparison to the NCLP case – changes in CO2 emissions by sectorComparison to the NCLP case – changes in CO2 emissions by sectorMt CO2 difference from NCLP caseMt CO2 difference from NCLP case

-82

-247

-343

-60

-192

-275

-22

-55-67

-49

-74 -71

-42-61 -60

-7 -12 -11-11

-34 -39

-11-32 -36

0 -2 -3

2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

EU25 EU ACC

Supply side Industry and Buildings Transport

CO2 emissions – Distance to target by region in 2010CO2 emissions – Distance to target by region in 2010in Mt of CO2 – negative figure implies seller of emission permits / % difference to target plotted against the secondary axisin Mt of CO2 – negative figure implies seller of emission permits / % difference to target plotted against the secondary axis

-160

-120

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

320

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mt CO2 10.3 9.9 3.7 -5.7 32.2 48.7 10.2 11.4 45.2 3.1 24.1 15.9 58.0 -0.8 11.3 -0.2 -37.1 -21.4 -5.2 -0.9 -15.5 -0.2 -33.9 -11.6 3.4 277. -122. 155.

% dif. 21.4 10.1 8.8 -10.7 9.1 6.5 11.4 33.9 12.4 37.7 16.8 32.0 24.7 -1.4 2.3 -2.2 -28.4 -62.5 -8.5 -10.8 -50.2 -4.7 -10.9 -25.4 28.3 9.0 -19.0 3.9

AU BE DK FI FR GE GR IR IT LX NL PO SP SV UK CY CZ ES HU LA LI MA PD SK SN EU ACCEU-25



Evolution of the demand sideEvolution of the demand side

EU-25 Final Energy Demand, 2000-2030EU-25 Final Energy Demand, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

50

60

70

80

90

100

GDPEnergy DemandCO2 emissions

Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Final energy demand in EU-25Final energy demand in EU-25% change by sector from 1990 levels% change by sector from 1990 levels

6.4

17.8

26.7

-5.5

2.2

9.39.6

19.1

32.5

49.0

4.1

13.3

19.323.3

21.3

40.0

51.7

58.9

34.1

16.0

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2010 2020 2030

Total (+0.8% pa in 2000-2030)Industry (+0.7% pa)Tertiary (+1% pa)Households (+0.6% pa)Transport (+0.9% pa)

Final energy demand in EU-25 by fuelFinal energy demand in EU-25 by fuel% share in total final energy demand% share in total final energy demand

11.75.3 3.2 2.3 1.9

42.0

43.241.8 40.8 39.6

19.422.9

24.4 24.3 24.4

6.25.2 5.6 6.0 6.3

17.5 19.7 21.2 23.0 24.4

3.2 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Gas fuels Steam Electricity Other

Demand side CO2 emissions in EU-25Demand side CO2 emissions in EU-25% change from 1990 levels% change from 1990 levels

-0.5

1.34.5

-15.1

-26.9 -28.6

21.8

38.3

48.4

53.3

6.8

-27.8

-6.7-12.2

-7.8-12.0

-10.1-9.1-11.0 -9.9

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2000 2010 2020 2030

Total (+0.24% pa in 2000-2030)

Industry (-0.54% pa)

Tertiary (+0.04% pa)

Households (+0.03% pa)

Transport (+0.77% pa)




INDUSTRIAL SECTORSINDUSTRIAL SECTORS

Evolution of value added in EU-25 industryEvolution of value added in EU-25 industryindex 2000=100index 2000=100

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2010 2020 2030

Total iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicals

non metallic minerals paper and pulp food, drink and tobacco engineering

textiles other industries

Evolution of energy demand in EU-25 industryEvolution of energy demand in EU-25 industryindex 2000=100index 2000=100

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2020 2030




Structure of industrial sectors energy demandStructure of industrial sectors energy demand% share in total industrial energy demand% share in total industrial energy demand

21.7 20.5 16.7 14.6 12.7

3.7 3.84.3 4.7 5.0

18.4 17.417.8 18.0 17.9

13.2 13.313.2 12.6 12.0

9.0 11.311.5

11.410.9

8.4 9.310.3 11.1

11.9

10.4 9.2 10.4 11.5 13.0

3.7

11.4 12.1 13.0 13.6 14.3

2.32.52.73.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

iron and steel non ferrous metals chemicalsnon metallic minerals paper and pulp food, drink and tobaccoengineering textiles other industries

Structure of industrial sectors energy demand by fuelStructure of industrial sectors energy demand by fuel% share in total industrial energy demand% share in total industrial energy demand

21.014.3

9.8 7.8 6.6

15.4

13.3

11.59.9 9.0

25.5

30.3

32.132.4 33.3

11.39.7

11.312.7 13.1

24.129.0 31.2 32.8 33.6

2.7 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.4

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

solids liquids gas steam (co-generated) electricity biomass-waste

Energy intensity improvement in EU-25 industryEnergy intensity improvement in EU-25 industry% difference from 2000 levels% difference from 2000 levels

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2020 2030




Carbon intensity improvement in EU-25 industryCarbon intensity improvement in EU-25 industry% difference from 2000 levels% difference from 2000 levels

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2020 2030








Iron and steel industryIron and steel industry

EU-25 Iron and steel industry, 2000-2030EU-25 Iron and steel industry, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

70

80

90

100

VAProductionEnergy DemandCO2 emissions

Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Evolution of iron and steel industry in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of iron and steel industry in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of production / Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axisStructure of production / Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axis

72.6 67.6 62.5 60.1 54.4 50.8 51.2 49.9 48.6

27.4 32.4 37.5 39.9 45.6 49.2 48.8 50.1 51.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Integrated steelworks Electric arc

Structure of iron and steel industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of iron and steel industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030% share by process/ Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axis% share by process/ Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axis

86.7 84.5 81.0 79.2 75.1 72.4 72.7 71.6 70.5

458

423 417 410396

382371

173 168 167 165 161

427

450

186156 151 147

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Integrated steelworks Electric arc Integrated steelworks Electric arc

Structure of iron and steel energy demand by fuelStructure of iron and steel energy demand by fuel% share in total energy demand% share in total energy demand

44.9 44.438.9 38.0 37.4

6.2 5.4

4.1 3.2 2.6

33.531.9

35.134.8 34.3

13.617.7 21.3 23.5 25.1

0.60.50.50.5

1.7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

solids liquids gas steam (co-generated) electricity





Non Ferrous Metals industryNon Ferrous Metals industry

EU-25 Non ferrous metals industry, 2000-2030EU-25 Non ferrous metals industry, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

70

80

90

100

VAEnergy DemandCO2 emissions

Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Structure of non ferrous metals industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of non ferrous metals industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030% share by process% share by process

50.4 47.141.9 42.5 43.6

5.06.5

8.4 8.6 8.5

8.8 10.59.8 9.4 9.1

5.0 5.54.8 4.5 4.1

2.9 2.32.3 2.4 2.3

27.9 28.232.8 32.8 32.5

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

primary aluminium secondary aluminium copper zinc lead other non ferrous products

Structure of non ferrous metals energy demand by fuelStructure of non ferrous metals energy demand by fuel% share in total energy demand% share in total energy demand

11.8 8.22.6

17.3

13.4

12.110.3 9.1

17.224.0

33.8 36.5 37.9

53.7 54.4 51.6 51.9 52.4

0.61.30%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

solids liquids gas electricity biomass-waste

Evolution of aluminium production in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of aluminium production in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of production / Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axisStructure of production / Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axis

62.7 55.3 53.0 47.8 42.8 41.4 42.8 45.3 44.0

21022004 1978

19041800

16951623

283 312 302 295 285

2011 2010

247258271349

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Primary Secondary Primary Secondary




INDUSTRYINDUSTRY

Chemicals IndustryChemicals Industry

EU-25 Chemicals industry, 2000-2030EU-25 Chemicals industry, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

50

60

70

80

90

100


Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Structure of chemical industry in EU-25 Structure of chemical industry in EU-25 % share in gross value added for chemical sector% share in gross value added for chemical sector

10.0 9.0 8.2 7.5 6.7

33.729.0

24.720.3

16.6

20.9

20.820.9

20.720.2

35.341.3

46.251.5

56.6

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

fertilisers/inorganic chemicals petrochemicalsother chemical products pharmaceuticals/cosmetics

Structure of chemicals industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of chemicals industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030% share by process% share by process

28.734.8 35.8 36.4 35.8

56.1 41.7 36.8 32.5 29.4

9.8

14.015.8

17.017.9

5.5 9.5 11.6 14.2 16.9

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

fertilisers/inorganic chemicals petrochemicalsother chemical products pharmaceuticals/cosmetics

Structure of chemicals industry energy demand by fuelStructure of chemicals industry energy demand by fuel% share in total energy demand% share in total energy demand

9.75.4

14.0

8.37.5 5.5 4.7

24.736.2

34.130.1 29.4

22.2 18.8

20.5

23.3 24.3

29.5 31.234.7

37.8 37.7

2.2 0.71.2

3.12.01.0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030





INDUSTRYINDUSTRY

Non Metallic Minerals IndustryNon Metallic Minerals Industry

EU-25 Non-metallic minerals industry, 2000-2030EU-25 Non-metallic minerals industry, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

60

70

80

90

100


Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Structure of non-metallic minerals industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of non-metallic minerals industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030% share by process% share by process

59.8

48.7 46.7 43.3 39.9

12.4

16.3 17.118.3

19.5

15.519.3 18.5 18.9 19.1

1.6 4.2 5.4 6.3 7.5

10.7 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.0

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

cement in ktn ceramics glass basic glass recycled other non-metallic minerals

Structure of non-metallic minerals industry energy demand by fuelStructure of non-metallic minerals industry energy demand by fuel% share in total energy demand% share in total energy demand

30.7

16.0

26.3

26.4

21.518.3

14.4

29.5

41.150.6

55.860.2

13.5 16.4 16.7 17.5 18.6

11.2 6.78.40%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

solids liquids gas electricity

Evolution of non-metallic minerals industry in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of non-metallic minerals industry in EU-25, 1990-2030Energy intensity per unit of production (t of product for cement, glass / value added for ceramics and other non-metallic minerals)Energy intensity per unit of production (t of product for cement, glass / value added for ceramics and other non-metallic minerals)

113102

87 86 84 82 78 75 72

395417

467 464454

436

410388

373

202220

249 252 246236

344 336 338 331316

298281

269

224213 206

380

60

110

160

210

260

310

360

410

460

510

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

cement in ktn ceramics glass other non-metallic minerals

Evolution of glass production in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of glass production in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of production / Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axisStructure of production / Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axis

63.0 63.5 62.9 62.2 61.2 60.6 60.3 59.9 59.4

290

322312

297

278

262

249

191

207 205200

189

301

325

159166

177186

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

120

170

220

270

320

Primary Recycled Primary Recycled




INDUSTRYINDUSTRY

Paper and pulp industry Paper and pulp industry

EU-25 Paper and pulp industry, 2000-2030EU-25 Paper and pulp industry, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

50

60

70

80

90

100

VAProductionEnergy DemandCO2 emissions

Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Evolution of paper and pulp industry in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of paper and pulp industry in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of productionStructure of production

34.5 31.2 30.1 29.2 28.7 28.4 27.7 27.1 26.4

68.8 69.9 70.8 71.3 71.6 72.3 72.9 73.665.5

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pulp Paper

Structure of paper and pulp industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of paper and pulp industry energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030% share by process/ Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axis% share by process/ Energy intensity per unit of production (kgoe per t of output) plotted against the secondary axis

49.6 45.2 45.1 44.1 43.6 43.5 43.1 42.7 42.1

436

393 389380

369356

346

237

207 206 202 196

395

432

234

186178 171

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Pulp Paper Pulp Paper

Structure of paper and pulp industry energy demand by fuelStructure of paper and pulp industry energy demand by fuel% share in total energy demand% share in total energy demand

8.13.5

9.4

5.3 4.3 3.0 2.7

14.8

19.617.8

17.7 18.0

15.817.1 20.7 23.1 24.1

27.3 31.2 31.4 31.5 31.6

24.8 23.4 23.4 22.9 22.2

2.5 1.41.90%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030





INDUSTRYINDUSTRY

Other industrial sectorOther industrial sectorFood, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles/ Other industriesFood, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles/ Other industries

EU-25 Other industrial sectors, 2000-2030EU-25 Other industrial sectors, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIncludes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industriesIncludes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industries

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

70

80

90

100


Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Structure of other industrial sectors in EU-25 Structure of other industrial sectors in EU-25 % share in gross value added by sector% share in gross value added by sector Includes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industries Includes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industries

16.2 16.9 16.7 16.4 15.8

60.8 62.9 64.7 66.5 68.5

9.8 7.2 5.7 4.7 3.9

13.2 13.1 12.9 12.4 11.8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

food, drink, tobacco engineering textiles other industries

Evolution of Other industrial sectors in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of Other industrial sectors in EU-25, 1990-2030Energy intensity per unit of value added (toe per MEuro’00) by sectorEnergy intensity per unit of value added (toe per MEuro’00) by sectorIncludes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industriesIncludes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industries

164153

143 140 135 129 124 119 115

5245

37 36 34 33 31 29 28

119109 110 108 105

263

242233

225217

207196

188 183

102 98 94 92

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

food, drink, tobacco engineering


Structure of other industrial sectors energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of other industrial sectors energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030% share by sector% share by sector Includes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industries Includes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industries

25.4 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.0

30.2 27.0 28.2 29.5 31.0

11.1 9.2 7.6 6.6 5.7

33.3 35.6 35.5 34.9 34.3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

food, drink, tobacco engineering textiles other industries

Structure of other industrial sectors energy demand by fuelStructure of other industrial sectors energy demand by fuel% share in total energy demand% share in total energy demand Includes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industries Includes: Food, drink, tobacco / Engineering / Textiles / Other industries

12.94.7

19.3

18.215.5 13.7 12.8

23.4

26.427.7

29.0 30.6

15.6

12.713.9 14.7 14.4

27.7

35.8 36.7 37.0 37.1

2.3 3.1 3.4 3.2

3.0 1.82.1

1.1

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030





TERTIARYTERTIARY

Evolution of value added in EU-25 tertiary sectorEvolution of value added in EU-25 tertiary sector% difference from 2000 levels% difference from 2000 levels

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2020 2030

Services market services non-market services trade agriculture

EU-25 Tertiary sector, 2000-2030EU-25 Tertiary sector, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Structure of tertiary sector energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of tertiary sector energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030% share by fuel% share by fuel

9.92.1

31.0

25.520.9 18.7 17.4

20.5

28.7

28.926.7 25.9

6.8

5.7

5.76.1 6.5

30.836.3

41.646.2 48.3

1.0

1.61.81.91.61.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Gas fuels Steam Electricity Other fuels

Energy intensity improvement in EU-25 tertiary sectorEnergy intensity improvement in EU-25 tertiary sector% difference from 2000 levels% difference from 2000 levels

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2020 2030

Services market services non-market services trade agriculture

Evolution of Tertiary sector in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of Tertiary sector in EU-25, 1990-2030Energy intensity per unit of value added (toe per MEuro’00) / Energy intensity per unit of value added (toe per MEuro’00) / Energy consumed per capita (kgoe per capita) drawn against the secondary axisEnergy consumed per capita (kgoe per capita) drawn against the secondary axis

3029

26

24

22

1918

1720

318

329

340

356363

379

403

428

458

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

per unit of value added

per capita




RESIDENTIALRESIDENTIAL

EU-25 Residential sector, 2000-2030EU-25 Residential sector, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

50

60

70

80

90

100

Income per capitaNumber of householdsEnergy DemandCO2 emissions

Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Structure of residential sector energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030Structure of residential sector energy demand in EU-25, 1990-2030% share by fuel% share by fuel

13.03.5

23.1

20.615.4 13.5 11.8

31.1

38.744.2

45.2 44.9

6.36.2 6.2 6.2 6.6

18.221.4 23.7 26.3 28.9

1.1

7.68.59.49.68.2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Solid Fuels Liquid Fuels Gas fuels Steam Electricity Other fuels

Evolution of Residential sector in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of Residential sector in EU-25, 1990-2030Energy intensity per unit of income (toe per MEuro’00) / Energy intensity per unit of income (toe per MEuro’00) / Energy consumed per capita (kgoe per capita) drawn against the secondary axisEnergy consumed per capita (kgoe per capita) drawn against the secondary axis

6362

54

51

46

39

35

32

42

608

618 616

640

659

677

692

705

721

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

per unit of income per capita




TRANSPORTTRANSPORT

EU-25 Transport sector, activity growth 2000-2030EU-25 Transport sector, activity growth 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100Indexed to 2000=100

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Passenger transport Freight transport GDP

EU-25 Transport sector, activity evolution 2000-2030EU-25 Transport sector, activity evolution 2000-2030km per capita / tkm per unit of GDP (tkm per 000 Euro’000) drawn against the secondary axiskm per capita / tkm per unit of GDP (tkm per 000 Euro’000) drawn against the secondary axis

241 238 240 238 235 232 230 227 223

10618

12959

13920

15023

16197

17369

18579

12174

11233

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

tkm per 000 Euro km per capita

EU-25 Transport sector, passenger transport activity 2000-2030EU-25 Transport sector, passenger transport activity 2000-2030% structure by transport mode% structure by transport mode

8.216.3

7.313.2

6.710.5

6.2 9.1

78.4

70.9

78.674.7

77.276.9

75.877.2

7.1 9.36.3

7.8

6.27.2

6.1

7.5

5.6 3.47.2

4.39.1

5.411.2

6.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

EU ACC EU ACC EU ACC EU ACC

% s

tru

ctu

re

public road transport private cars rail transport aviation inland navigation

2000 20202010 2030

EU-25 Transport sector, freight transport activity 2000-2030EU-25 Transport sector, freight transport activity 2000-2030% structure by transport mode% structure by transport mode

70.9

56.5

74.266.1

75.972.4

77.7 76.3

13.3 43.2 11.233.6

10.2

27.49.2

23.515.8 14.6 13.9 13.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

EU ACC EU ACC EU ACC EU ACC

% s

tru

ctu

re

trucks rail transport inland navigation

2000 20202010 2030

EU-25 Transport sector, 2000-2030EU-25 Transport sector, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

GDPEnergy DemandCO2 emissions

Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

Energy intensity improvement in EU-25 for passenger transport modesEnergy intensity improvement in EU-25 for passenger transport modes% difference from 2000 levels% difference from 2000 levels

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

2010 2020 2030

Total public road transport private cars rail transport aviation

Energy intensity improvement in EU-25 for freight transport modesEnergy intensity improvement in EU-25 for freight transport modes% difference from 2000 levels% difference from 2000 levels

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2020 2030

Total trucks rail transport inland navigation

Evolution of passenger transport efficiency in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of passenger transport efficiency in EU-25, 1990-2030Energy consumed per unit of passenger activity (toe per Mpkm) / Energy consumed per unit of passenger activity (toe per Mpkm) / Energy consumed per unit of freight activity (toe per Mtkm) drawn against the secondary axisEnergy consumed per unit of freight activity (toe per Mtkm) drawn against the secondary axis

39.038.6

39.2 39.1

32.9

31.6

29.5

27.7

36.2

51.7

54.4

53.8

55.9

53.8

51.8

49.4

55.3

56.3

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

passenger

freight




POWER GENERATIONPOWER GENERATION

EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030Indexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axisIndexed to 2000=100, energy and carbon intensity drawn against the secondary axis

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

ElectricitySteamCO2 emissions

Energy Intensity

Carbon intensity

EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030Installed capacity in GW, load factor drawn against the secondary axisInstalled capacity in GW, load factor drawn against the secondary axis

140 139 130 124 111 113 117

336 324266

203159 129 118

70 123204 311 405 452 491

4180

107

96101 105

108

112113

114

79100

124

150

159

214

1328

6

20

43.9

44.9

46.6

50.450.0

49.2

48.4

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

Nuclear Conv. Thermal Gas Advanced coal Hydro Wind Other renewables load factor

EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030Capacity expansion in GWCapacity expansion in GW

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030Gas fired

Renewables

Advanced coal

Conv. thermal

Nuclear

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

GW

EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030Structural characteristicsStructural characteristics

89.9

84.677.481.4 81.985.187.4

91.3

18.017.016.715.8

16.714.914.512.6

65.063.159.0

53.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2000 2010 2020 2030

Utilities in total capacity Utilities in total elec. generationCHP in total capacity CHP in total elec. generationCHP in total steam generation

EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030EU-25 Power generation sector, 2000-2030% share by energy form in electricity generation% share by energy form in electricity generation

33.1 31.8 28.021.2 18.2

34.631.5

18.1

12.7 15.0

8.1

6.0

2.4

44.0 44.0

1.4 0.8

32.7

16.110.5

1.7 2.03.0 3.8 4.0

9.49.710.511.811.9

0.8 5.2 7.2 8.6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2010 2020 2030

Nuclear Solids Oil Gas Biomass-waste Hydro and other renewables Wind energy

Evolution of power generation sector in EU-25, 1990-2030Evolution of power generation sector in EU-25, 1990-2030Thermal electricity production efficiency (%) / Carbon intensity (t of CO2 per MWh) drawn against the secondary axisThermal electricity production efficiency (%) / Carbon intensity (t of CO2 per MWh) drawn against the secondary axis

36.8

39.9

49.750.4

46.0

43.3

48.4

0.387

0.322

0.236 0.240

0.276

0.2530.242

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

thermal electricity production efficiency carbon intensity

CAFE baseline scenario CAFE project for Environment DG Stakeholders Meeting 27-28/05/2003 Dr. L....

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