cAc NHAN TO VA CAP BQ TRONG P H A N TfCH C H I N H S A C H B 6 I N G O ^ I

VaVmrngHttSi

Hien chtta cd "ly thuyet" hodn chinh theo ting nghia vi chinh sdch tdi ngogi Gidi nghien cuu mii chip nhdn khai mem phdn tich chinh sdch tdi ngoai. Bi hoach tfnh duac chmh sach ddi ngoai mdt cdch tung ddn, khoa hgc cdn phdi tinh tin cac nhdn td khdc nhau Bd Id dja - ehinh ti-j cua qudc gia, mvc tieu qudc gift site manh tdng hap qudc gia, chinh tii ndi bd, dn luan xd hdi^ yiu td van hda, lich sd, bdi canh qudc ti vd khu wc, cdc ly thuyet vi quan he qudc ti vd tdi ngogi... Ngoai ra, phdi tinh ten lai ich qudc gia - ddn tdc mdt nhdn td tdng hap, hdn td tdng trong hoach dinh chinh sdch tdi ngogi (tiiy nhien, phdn tich lpi ich qudc gia -ddn tdc khong thude pham vi nghien ciru bdi viet nay). Ben cgnh viec phdn rich cdc nhdn ta cdn phdi quan tdm din ba cdp to ti-ong phdn tich chinh sdch ddi ngogi Id: he thdng quan he qudc te, qudc gia vd cd nhdn.

lit khoa: cMnh sich dii ngoai, lgi ich quic gia - dan tdc, sue

manh quoc gia.

-1

Hien nay, ttong gidi hgc tiiuat t in tai ba nhdm "ly fliuyet" v,i.

chinh sach d i i ngoai: (i) Nhdm thu nhit vay mugn tu cac ly fliuySt quw;| I

he quic t l nhu chu nghia Men thuc, chu nghia til do, chtt ngMa Mic hayi. ^

ch i nghia kiln tao; (ii) Nhftm flitt hai lien quan den chu the ttong quan h | , ,

* PGS.TS, Hoc vien Ngoai giao.

186

fghien cuu qudc tS sd 2 (105)

iqu6c t6 va chinh sach d6i ngoai; (iii) Nhom thu ba bao gom c ^ mo hinh qua trinh hoach dinh chinh sach d6i ngoai. Nhin chung, cac ly thuyet nay li t tan man, co nhidu khiSm khuylt, chu ySu mod la cac mo hinh (model), chii chua phai ly thuydt hoan chinh va cung khong co khung Iy thuyet niio hoan chinh. Tai sao lai nhu v|ly? Do la vi khi phan tich chinh sach ddi ngoai, cdc nha nghien cuu thucmg t|tp trung v^o mpt quy trinh hoac kk qua chinh sach c\i thi, do vay cac tham so lua chpn thuang co khung thM gian, boi canh.cii the chi phu hgp voi cac truofng hop don 16. M t khac, c6 qua nhieu nh§n to khac nhau tac dpng den qua trinh lira chpn va triin khai chinh sach nhung ly thuy§t khong thS bao ham hh. Do vay, khai ni$m phan tich chinh sach doi ngo^ dupe da so cac hpc gia chia se. Bai viet nay chi nhim phan tich cac nhan to phai tinh den trong hoach dinh chinh sach d6i ngoai. CJ day khong ban den lpi ich quoc gia - dan toe la khai niem t6ag hpp, hon da tang trong hoach dinh chinh sach doi ngoai. Ngoai ra, muc tieu khac ciing dupe dat ra \k gioi thieu ba cap dp phan tich chinh sach doi ngoai.

Cac nh^n t6 trong bo^ch dinh chinh s ch d i ngoai

Co nhieu nhan t6 phai tinh den trong viec hoach dinh chinh sach d6i ngoai. Co nhung nhan t6 6n dinh, it thay doi, song c6 nhung yen to fliuong xuyen thay d6i. Co the ke den cac nhan to sau day:

Dia ~ chinh tri

Dia - chinh tri xem xet cac yeu t6 nhu vi tri dia ly, khi hau, tai tiguyen thien nhien, dSn s6, hay dia hinh tac dpng nhu the nao toi chinh

\ • s ch d6i ngoai cua mpt qu6c gia va vi thS cua quoc gia do trong he thong -'qu6c xk. D6ng thoi, dia - chinh tri cung la nhan to chi nghe thuat/cach

.•^Tr4n ViStThai, Qua tnnh ^di quyit van di Cam-pu-chia trong chinh sdch doi ngoai M$t Nam giai do^n 1979-1991 vd rngt sd bdi hgc kinh nghi$m, Luan an Tien si Quan he qu6c tl, Hgc vien Ngoai giao, 2014, tr.9.

187

Nghien ciru qudc te sd 2 (105)

thuc su dung quyln luc hay anh huftng chinh tri tren mgt pham vi lanh thi nhit djnh. Thuat ngii "Dia - chinh tti" do Rudolf Kjellen, mgt nha chinh tti hgc nguoi Thuy Diln dua ra vao diu the ky XX, tren co sd y tttdng ggi mo cua nhi dia Iy ngudi Ditc Friedrich Ratzel vio nam 1897 (trong cuin sach Bia - chinh tri) va sau dd dugc dung pho biln trong cac cdng trinh nghien cira vl quan he quic tl Kjellen eho ring eic dac diem vl kinh tl, chinh trj va quan su eiia mgt quic gia bit ngudn til cic yeu to dja ly vi mdi tru'dng ciia quic gta do. Cic ylu td dia Iy niy cd the thic diy hoac kim ham su phat tnln vl ehinli tri vi kmh te - xa hgi, ddng thdi gdp phin djnh hinh ban sic vi Itch su eua mfti quic gia. Kjellen dac bi?t chu y tfti tic dgng cua cic die dilm dia Iy nhu niii non va dai duong doi vol sinh menh chinh tri cua cac quic gia." Diy la nhin td it thay ddi.

Chi dp chinh tri

Day la nhan ti co ban, chi phii chinli sach dii ngoai ciia quoc gia, cung la nhin id it thay dit. v l ehl do chinh trj, tM tren thi gifti c6 hat loai thi chi co bin Ii tu ban ehii nghia (TBCN) va xa hgi ehu nghia (XHCN) Hai thi chi nay khic nhau vl phuong thirc sin xuat: phuong thitc san xuit nr bin chu nghia vi phuong thiic sin xuit xi hgi chi nghia. Di liln vol chi do chinli trj li he nr tilftng chu dao. he ttr nrdng cdng san va he tu htong tu bin. Trong thoi ky Chiln ttanh lanh y thue he cM phoi chinh sach dii ngoai cua cic nuoc thugc ci hat phe XHCN va TBCN. Chinh sich dil ngoai Viet Nam cung bj cM phii manh me bdi he thong y thuc he nay. Chinh sich dii ngoai thugc thugng ting kiln true do ha tang CO so quylt dmh. M6i khi chi do chinh trj thay dii. se thay ddi nen tang

' Vi du nho eo biln Mang-so ma nuoc Anh Ithong b, Due dd bo va chiSm dong ttong

Chiln ttanh thj gioi II Xinh-ga-po nhit n5m tten con ducmg bien tiit tap nap tu Thai

Binh Duong sang An Do Duong, rdi tir do sang ehau Au. . ma eo dicn Itien vo cung

thuan loi de phat tnen eac ngiinh dieh voi, thuong mai Viet Nam eo bo bien dai la nhan

16 thuan loi d<; phil tnln kmh tl bien. song eung lao ra phuc tap trong phong thu dat

nirac va tat nhieu vi du khae nua

hien cuu quoc ti sd 2 (105)

Ichinh sach d6i ngo?d. Vi dy Lien X6 tan ra, ch^ do XHCN a D6ng Au, I^Mdng Co sup dfi duoc thay th6 b ^ g chi dp moi, nen chinh sach doi

i^oai ciia nuac Nga, cac nuac cong hoa thuoc LiSn X6 cii va Dong Au 0 CO nhiing thay doi ca ban, khong con la chinh sach doi ngoai XHCN

" nua.

Muc tieu quoc gia

Do la muc dich chinh, ca ban m^ qu6c gia hudng toi trong mpt giai ^>an lich sur nhat dinh. Cho nen chinh sach doi npi cilng nhu doi ngoai deu phai can cii vao nhiem vy trung tam nay. Vi dii trong giai doan 1945-1946, muc tieu quoc gia cua nuac ta dugc xac dinh la ciing co va giiJ vftng chinh quyen non tre viia dupe thiet lap sau Cach mang thang S/1945. Do ciing chinh la lai ich cao nhat, lai ich cot loi ciia dan tpc Viet l^am. Con chinh quyen la con tat ca, mat chinh quyen la mat bet. Muc tifiu quoc gia trong cupc khang chien truong ky chong thirc dan Phap la gianh thang Ipi trong cupc khang chien vi doc lap, tiiong nhat va toan ven Bnh tho. Con trong cupc khang chien chong My cuu nuoc, muc tieu quoc gia cua Viet Nam nhu Ho Chu tich da khai quat la "Khong co gi quy ban d6c ISp, do". Muc tieu ca ban cua Viet Nam cho den het thcfi ky qua dO di len CNXH duoc Cuang Liiih nam 2011 cua Dang xac dinh la "xay dung nuac ta tra thanh mpt nuac cong nghiep hien dai, theo dinh huong

\l Xa hpi chu nghia".^

S&e m^h qudc gia

Siic manh quoc gia gia la mpt khai niem de chi toan bp thuc luc r dSm bao cho su tfin tai va phat trien ciia mpt quoc gia bao gom cac nhan 6 vSt chat, tinh thAn, anh huong trong quan he quoc te. Khai niem nay djifpc nghien ciiu mpt each co he thong 6 phuang Tay tii cuoi the ky

'

g Cpng san Viet Nam, Vdn kien Dai hpi Ddng ldn thii XI, Nxb. Cliinh tn (}u6c gia, RpaN6i20U,tr.70.

189

Nglikn <M qii^i»sd -»('«

19 nhung chtt yiu mfti dugc nghiSn cttu flieft. jShiiohg phap dinh i Nhung nghien ciiu dinh lugng mfti dugc dua ra trong fli»p 1960,1970 vi ngay cing ttft ndn quan ttgng ddi vfti cac cWnh tti \ _ chiiii luge gia, cic nha nghien cttu. CicTihanti ciu flianh site manh tirf hgp quic gia gim: i) Lanh tiii (vi hi dia ly, djc bidt li vj tri giao flidii va vi tti quic phdng; diln tich c6 tfaih tfti cic diiu ki«n vekhi han, nguydn tiiien nhien; dia hhih li dii nui, bhih nguyen hay sa ni»c, cd bill hay khftng eft biin). ii) Dan si l i si lugng nhin khiu, l i mgt yen td s&ij xuit cung nhu ciu tiiinh tim quan ttgng ctta mftt qnftc gia.* T ro^ : f cin phii tinh hSi ci chit lugng va ciu ttiic dan so;' iii) Xhifc Ivc kinb' dugc coi li yiu t i ciu fliinh co bin ctta sttc m»nh tdng hgp quSct Anil huftng cua kmh ti din sttc manh ting hgp quic gia dugc xem i tten hai khia canh la quy md kmh tl (GDP) va co ciu ^nh ti;' iv) Gj flidng flidng tm lidn lac vtta li ha ting ctta nln kmh te ttong hfta b h M

'iff

< Nhilu nha nghi6n c4u cho ring dan s6 phai dat d& mOt m4c nitit ilinh men co Hi bao cho su phat ttiSn an toan, bin vihig cia qu6c gia. ^^ = Chat luong din S3 gSm t6 chSt c6ng dan, ttinh do giao due, tinh tring sic khoe, ^ • ting dso diic, phong tuc Up quta, truyfa th6ng van hda, quin su... va nuh than d a i t « C4u true dan s6 la cac kUa canh vS gi« Huh, do hioi, thanh phto dto t0c, ton glSo. ^ ttuc dan s6 hop ly, flmin nhit se tjo thuto lpi cho quoc gia phat huy sue manh t e n j

' M l tS hSu thuin cho xay dung nto qu6c phong viing manh: yiyit dinh quy iB6 *l trang bi ky thuat, khi tai chita tranh CUB quan doi. Chi tieu cho quoc phong cua cac q i ^ j gia h k hit diu tit ten kem ea vl quy md lin ty ttong so v6i GDP. Chien tranh taea M CO sue pha hoai cOng nhu miic tieu hao ngay ctog ldn, do vay chi c6 thuc luc kmh*. himg manh moi dam bao cho vi§e tiln hanh chiln tranh dat Icet qua. Ban than H w c ^ kinh tl ii nhan tl dam bao vi tri qu6c tl cua mot qu6c gia. Trong Uch S4, djc bl?t la M sir can d»i va Men dai, cac cuong quic c6 vai tro chi phM ehinh tri quoc te deu la nhai« nude CO tilm luc kinh tl himg manh. Thvc luc kmh tS cilng la bilu hien deng fltoi cmM la m«t nhan te cua nang 1(10 canh tranh qu6c tl trong bei canh toto cau hoa hi«n nay. ^

190

p»e/t cmi qudc te sd 2 (105)

tia ha ting dS ti&i hanh chifin tranh trong th6i chien. Trong dieu kien *-'hien nay, vai tro cua thSng tin ngay c^g trd n&i quan trpng va nhieu khi quyk dinh thanh bai trong ca kinh tl lan tien hanh chiln Iranh; v) Chat lupng cua chinh phu dupe thS hiSn a ca cau va hieu qua dieu hanh cua chinh phu: vi$c sip xep va t6 chiic b6 may chinh phu hpp ly, ca che v^n hiuah, boat dpng cua chinh phu nhanh nhay v^ hieu qu^; Trinh dp luat hoa, dan chu hoa cua chinh phii: yen to nay the hien or miic dp h o ^ thifin cua h$ thong lu^t phap tren cac mgt Igp phap, hanh phap va tu phap, miic dO cong khm, dSn chii v^ quyen Ipd chinh trj cua nguai dan trong cac cu6c biu cu;^ vi) Sue manh quan sy la ylu t6 then ch6t trong chiSn tranh va la ylu to co tinh chSt ran de khi khong co chien tranh. Siic manh quan si thi hien d cac mat: so lupng va chat lupTig quan dpi; nang luc chi huy; trinh dp ly luan quan su va trang thiSt hi, khi tai quan su dac biet la nhimg vS khi co siic buy diet lan; vii) Quan he doi ngoai bao gom nhieu Imh v\ic, nhu: kinh tl d6i ngoai, chinh tri doi ngoai, qu6c phong doi

; ngo^ va van hoa d6i ngoai. Nhung nguyen tac va ket qua ciia chinh sach \ !^i i^oai anh huong din tuong quan, vi tiiS cua quoc gia, dac biSt la doi ^ ngoai qu6c phong, nh§n t6 anh buong tnrc tilp din siic mgnh tong hap

quoc gia. viii) Khoa hpc cong nghe the hi?n a cac kham phd, phat minh, ^sang chi; liinh dp ung dimg. No 1 nhSn to co tac dung thiic day kinh te • t hdt triln nha tang nang suit lao dpng, d6ng thai anh hucmg din viec che >%o, sii dyng cac vu khi, khi tM chien tranh cong ngh$ cao, hieu suat Ion.

' N6 dam bao cho con nguai, hang hoa va tin turc lim thong thong su6t trong nen kinh t^ quan d$i, khf tai chiSn tranh, dim bdo hiu clin trong chi n tranh cung nhu thu thgip cie thfing tin m^t each diy du, kip thoi dl ra quySt djnh. ^ B§ m^y chinh phu quan lieu, c6ng kSnh hay gpn nhe, nhay ben, c6 hi|u qua quyet dinh hifu luc quan ly cua chinh phft. Ben canh d6, hhn chat chinh tri ciia chinh phii cung quySt dinh chat lupng cua chinh ph^. B ^ chSt niiy dupe xem xet tren hai mat doi noi va d6i ogo^: chinh phii dai dien cho giai cap, tang 16p nao trong xa hoi, co dai di n cho dSi^ dao ngudi dan cua qu6c gia hay Hiong, co hpp 16ng dein, hpp voi cac gia trj, xu the

athl gjdi hay khSng? T^ cd dSu kak huong ddn vi the qu6c gia va thanh b ii trong a tranh vi chign tr^ih la mot su t i ^ n6i cua chinh tri.

191

Nghiin cUu quae te sd i (10,

Ngoii sttc manh cttng cdn c6 stto m ^ mim; THeos-Jost^^ Nye, quyin luc mim li dttng khi nang gianh duoc nhttng ttitt rnhih mtj thong qua viec gay inh huftng di khiin ngufti khio lim theo nhflngj mtah muin. Mdt die diim ctta quyin Ivc mem li khdng cuftng bttq,i# buSc. Stt dung quyin luc mim cung c6 thi d t dugtc nhflng gi mhihmni*-bing each tic dong tfti h$ fliing gia tti ctta ngufti khic, lira fliay ddi ca suy nghi cua ngufti khac vi qua dd khiin ngufti khac mong muin chr dilu mi minh mong muin.' Quyin Ivc mim thuc WSn fliftng qua su 1 dan va thuyit phuc. Dii vfti mot quic gia, quyin luc mim duijic tao dii dua tten ba yiu ti: vin hda quic gia, gia tti quic gia vi chhih sach c qudc gia dd.

Ndi ve sttc manh cua Vi$t Nam, Chu tich Hi CU Minh nha^|jJ manh: "Phai ttong d fliuc Ivc. Thuc luc manh ngoai giao se fliing Thuc luc li cii chieng mi ngoai giao li cii tilng. Chieng cd to ttSng moi-|, ldn".'" "Dinh fliing loi flh ngoai giao thing nhiiu. Cd nhien ngoat giao la rit quan ttong, nhung cai vin chmh la mhlh phii danh fliing va mtah j . cd sttc manh flii ngoai giao se tiling"; "Biy gift ttong nuftc ta cu danh| i cho thing, flil ngoai giao dl lam an"." "Muin lim ngoai giao duoc flwng 11 loi li phii biiu duong fliitc luc".'^ t^ I

Chinh tri ngi bg A

Hien nay, tten thi gifti da htoh thanh cic cich hiiu khac nhau v i | chinh tei: i) Nghd fliuat cua phep cai tti; ii) Nhflng cdng viec chung cua|

» losheph Nye, Soft Power: The Moans to Success m World PoUtics, Publm Affm

New York, 2004, p.2-6. . , „ ^,.. , . , , i» H6 Chi Minh, Tain lap, xuSt ban l b thvl ba, Nxb. Chinh tri Quoc gta. Ha Not 2011|.

t|p4,tr.l47. " Hoc vien Quan he qu3c tl, Bdc Hd ndi vi ngoai giao. Ha Noi 1994, tt.24-25. •. • Bang Cong san Viet Nam, Vdn kien Bing todn tip, Nxb. CUuh trj Quoc gta, HaNSl|

2000, tap 8, tr.27. "'•

192

Nghien c&u qudc te so 2 (105)

w j p a hpi; iii) Str thda hiep va d ing thuin; iv) Quyen luc v i cich phin phdi

tai nguyen hay lgi ich. Theo Ttt diln Bich khoa toin fliu Viet Nam,

chmh tri l i tat c i nhung hoat ddng, nhung v in d i gan vdi quan he giai

cip, dan tdc, quic gia v i cic nhdm xa hpi xoay quanh mdt vin de trung

{am dd l i v in d i giinh, giu v i stt dung quyln luc nha nude ." Nlu hieu

nhu tten thi ttong chi dp cpng sin se khdng cftn nhi nuftc v i nhu vay

khdng cdn chinh tti. Chinh tri theP nghia rdng hon l i hoat dpng cua con

• ngufti nhim l im ra, gin gitt v i dieu chinh nhung luit le chtmg m i nhirng

luit le niy t ie ddng true tiip len cupc s ing cua nhung ngufti gdp phin

lam ra, gm gitt va dieu chinh nhttng luit le chtmg dd. Vdi cich hieu nhu

thi niy thi dtt ttong xa hpi cdng sin, chinh tri v in con tdn tai v i vin giu

vai ttd hi t sue quan ttpng d i i vdi timg con ngufti ciing nhu toin x i hpi.

Chinh tri ndi bp la ndi d in he thing chinh tti ctta qudc gia, vai trd ctta cic

dang phii chinh tri, d ing nio , lien minh nio dang nam quyen dieu hinh

dit nude, tinh hinh chinh tri ndi bp cua qudc gia dn dinh hay bi t dn v.v...

Dd l i nhttng nhan t i inh hudng khdng nhd den chinh sach ddi ngoai, l i

• nhin t i phii tinh d in khi nghien ciiu chinh sach d i i ngoai cua qudc gia.

I f, VI dii. Dang Dan chu Tu do d Nhit B in thang ctt v i dua dng Smzo

II Abe len l im Thu tuftng (12/2012), v i do vay, chinh sich d i i ngoai cua

Nhat Bin thay d i i ding k i . Vi du khac l i Trung Quic vdi Dai hpi XVlIl

cia Ding Cong sin Tmng Quic, Tip Can Binh ttft thinh Ting Bi thu

(11/2012), r i i Chu tich nuftc, Chu tich quin uy Trung uong (3/2013), sau

dd kiem them Chu tich Uy ban An ninh quic gia, do viy, chinh sach ddi

ngoai cua Trung Quic cd nhilu diiu chinh Iftn, bd phuong chim dau

mmh chft flifti, khdng di dau sang chinh sach nhin manh vai ttft nuftc Iftn.

Mdt minh chting r i t rd v l viec chinh tti ndi bd chi phdi chinh sach ddi

ngoai l i ttong khung hoing chinh tri tai U-crai-na thing 2/2014, chmh

" Hpi d6ng chi dao bien soan Tit diln bach khoa Viet Nam, Tie dien Bach khoa toiin thu VietNam, Nxb. Trung tSm Bien soan Tir diln bach Idioa Viet Nam, Ha Noi 1995, Tap

|itr ,478.

193

Nghiin cuu qude ^ so 2 (10^.

& hdi cua su smh tin"." Do la nin ting tinh thin ctta xa hOi n&i vin ha cung li nln ting cua boat dpng ngo^i giao va cd inh huftng nhit djnh d viec dinh hinh cac tu tuftng chi dao ttong dii ngoai cua qudc gia.'' Vi dS ttr toftng hfta hiiu, ttng xu kit hpp kiSn dinh vi nguyen tic voi mim dm linh hoat vi sich lupc la nhttng tu tuftng cit ldi cua ngo^ giao taiyeT thing Vi$t Nam, ding flifti cung la net ldn ttong chfah sich dii ngoi Viet Nam flifti dai Hd Chi Mmh. Hda hiiu, ttng xtt Imh host, mem deol chinh li vin hda Viet Nam. Nghi quyit TW 5 khda VHI (7/1998) "yl xay_ dvmg va phit ttiln nin van hda Vidt Nam tien tiin, dim di bin sac d a « tdc" nhin manh quan diim chi dao "Vin hda li nln ting tinh fliin cua x hdi vtta li muc tieu vtta li ddng Itrc fliuc diy phit trien kfah tl - jS'vS

hpi" ." • 5

Ngoai giao flieo nghia hep chmh li dim phin. Van hda c6 inh i hudng ldn din dam phan, din cic thinh t i co bin cua dim phin nhu chi ,* thi, ciu ttilc, chiin lupc, chiin thuat, tiin ttinh dim phin." Van hda quy dinh quan diim, each ttt duy, cich ung xtt cua chu flie dim phan. VSn hda inh huftng tfti id chttc, quyln han danh cho dean dim phan. Vin hoa inh huftng din su lija chpn chiin lupc dim phin hda hoin hay khdng khoan nhupng, cich gianh chiln thing flidng qua viec dat duoc flips, thuin vl nguyen tic ti^ftc hay vin dl cu thi ttudc. Van hda inh huftng tfti tiln ttinh dim phin, nhit li hieu qui giao tiip gifla cic chtt tiid daiff phan: di tiling vio van dl hay di vdng vo, inh hudng dinh gii ket qua ' dim phin. Su khic biet van hda co thi giy ra hilu lim ttong giao tiep,

" H6 CM Minh, Todn tip, xuit ban lan thii ba, Nxb. Chinh tti (Juic gia. Ha Noi 2011,

Tap 3, tr.458. w Nhilu nha nghien ciiu cung cho ring W nrcmg Thien ha, ThiSn ttiEu an sau vao van hoa Tmng Quic, ciing la W hrong ngoai giao quan trpng cua Trung Quoc. " Dang C6ng san Viet Nam, Van kiin Hdi nghi ldn Ihii 5 Ban Chap hinh Trung uang Khda VIII, Nxb. Chinh tti Quic gia. Ha Npi 1998, tt 55. I' Guy Oliver Faure, Gefrey Rubin, Power and Negotiation, University Michigan Press,, 2000.

196

0ien ciht qudc tS so 2 (105)

gay kilo khan cho viec phien djch, giai thich v3n d . Van hoa quan trpng w\ trong d ^ p h ^ c6 nhan t6 con nguoi. DOng co, tam ly con nguai anh hucmg true tiep hay gian tidp din dam ph^. Vi dy nhu cau "phai thang", "d^nh bai" ngucri d6i thoai; nhu cau dugc cong n h ^ la "tot", "gioi" hay "manh me" , nhu cau "bao v$ nguyen tae" hay "tien le" trong ddm phan, nhu cau "eong bang", "danh di ", bao ve "danh tieng". Day la nhiing nhan to vo hinh bam ri v^o gia tri va cam xuc cua ca nhan. Trang ph\ic, c ch noi to hay nho, caeh bit tay cung anh huong den dam phan. Co nha nghien cuu eho ring do van hoa anh huong sau sie den dam phan nen da hinh thanh phong each dan tpc trong dam phan ngoai giao. Co ba nhom nhan t6 tao n6n phong each dan tpc trong dam phan ngo?i giao: Nhom tfiii nhit lien quan d8n thanh phan doan d ^ phan, su phu thupc cua doan vao lanh dao trong nuae trong quyet dinh eac van de tai ban thuang lugng; Nhom thii hai lien quan den dinh hucmg gia tri nhu tu tuang, dao diic, ton giao...; Nhom nhSn to thii ba lien quan den each img xir, thu

. fliuat, chien thuat dam phan dac trung cho van hoa dan tpc.^'

I, Nhdn to lich sir

Mpi su kien, hien tugng trong chinh tri doi ngoai, trong quan he quoc tk dhi eo qua txinh phat sinh, phat trien va ket thiic. Nghia la co lich sir. Nhiiu hien tugng, qua trinh lieh sir co the se lap lai, song voi dieu kien khac, boi vay, chung ta dhi co the tham khao. Mat khac, lich sir la c i gucmg soi. Tir lich sir nguai ta co thi rut ra dupe nhiing bai hpc kinh n^em co gia tri. Co bai hpc kinh nghiem thanh cong, song eiing co bai hpc thit bai. Chinh vi vay, lich sir quan hS cua quoc gia voi cac chu the khdc trong quan he qu6e tS la nhan to khong the khong tinh den trong viec ho^ch dinh chinh saeh doi ngoai ciia b^t ky quoc gia nao. Vi du nhu khi hoach dinh ehinh sach d6i ngoai cua Viet Nam doi vai Tnmg Quoe

' Vu Ducmg Huan, Ngogi giao vd cong tdc ngogi giao, Nxb. Chinh tri Quoc gia. Ha N9i2015,tr.424-425.

197

!\gnien cim quui ,i2{:os)

thi chu ylu cua thdi dai trong giat doan lich sit dd. ^ Ve trit tu the gidi hien nay, Dai hpi XI cua Dang ta nhan dinh: "ciic dien the gidi da cue ngiy cang to hon"'.'

Bdi canh quic ll vi khu vuc cho thiy nhiing khd khan, thach thttc mi cic quic gia phii dil phd vi nhung thuin lpi, thfti co ma cic quoc giai phai phii tim cich tan dung trong duftng lit phat trien cua nude minh Kho khan, thich thitc, thdi co thudng dan xen. Lanh dao quoc gia phai hit site nhay ben dl xac dmh dung thach thitc va thai co vi cd bien phip hiru hieu dl doi phd va tranh thu. Nhin ti quic tl vi khu vuc la nhan td hay thay ddi.

Cdc ludn thuyit vi quan he qudc ti, chinh sdch tdi ngogi

Dil vol cac dang cdng sin, cac nude xa hoi chii nghia thi chii ngliia Mac - Lenin li kim chi nam eho mpi hoat ddng cua cac ding, trong do cd cac hoat dpng dii ngoai eua minh. Do viy, ft cie nuftc xa hpi chii nghia khong xuit hien eac trio luu ly luan phi Mic - Lenm, ke ei trong linh vuc dil ngoai mi ehi eo viee "van dung" sang tao chu nghia Mae -Lenm vio dilu kien eu thi cua nude minh. Tinh hinh hoin toin kliic tai cie nude tu ban ehu nghia. 0 cae nude niy xuit hien kha nhieu cae ly thuylt khic nhau, trong dd cie ly thuylt vl quan he quoc te vi chinh sach dil ngoai. Cae ly thuylt Ion nhu ehit nghia hien thuc, ehii nghia hr do.

" Ttong hch su quan he qudc t l da t in tai oat ttt don cue nhu De quoc La Ma-Pax

Romana (Thi kj ITCN - Till icy VI SCN), Trat to Thicn ha cua Tmng Quoc co, ttung,

can dai ttat tu Pax Bntanica (1815-1914), trat ttr da cue- ttr 1495-1939 co 6 thoi ky ttSt

tt, thi giol la 1495-1521.1604-1618.1648-1702,1713-1792,1815-1914 va 1919-1939

vol 285 nam), ttat ttr luong cue Xo - My (1945-1991) (xem: Vu Duong Huan. Mil so

vin di quan Iw quic tl chinh sich dil ngoai vi ngoai gum Viel Nam. Nxb Chinh tti -

Hanh chinh. Ha Noi 2009, tr 170)

--' Dang Cong san Viet Nam, Van hen Dai hoi XI cua Dang. Nxb Chinh tti Quoc gia,

Hii Noi 2011. tt 183

200

mghiin cuu qudc te sd 2 (105)

fchii nghia kien tao va nhung luan thuylt khdc deu co anh huong sfiu sSc den dirong loi chinh, sach doi ngoai eua chinh quyen nhieu nuoc tu ban, nhat la d My. Co khong it minh chimg cho nhan dinh nay. ''

Ba c4p do ph§n tich chinh sach d6i ngoai

Trong phan tich ehinh sach doi ngogi, ngoai viec phai lam ro eae nhSn to can phai tinh d^n cac cap dp phan tich. Theo chiing toi co ba cSp dp trong phan tieh ehinh saeh doi ngoai.

Cap dg quoc gia

Quoc gia la chu the hoach dinh chinh saeh doi ngoai. Qu6e gia la chu the duy ly eho nen quoe gia phai tinh den mpi nhan to trong qua trinh hogch dinh chinh sach doi ngoai nhu trinh bay of tren. Co the noi day la

' '' c§.p dp quan trpng nhat, quyet dinh nhat trong hoaeh dinh chinh saeh doi • \ ngoai. Chinh saeh doi ngoai eo diing khong, khoa hgc khong truac het

' I phu thupc vao cap dp nay.

C&p dg he thong quoc te

, , ,>' M, Y{ (Ju: Chu ngMa tu do da co anh huong vo ciing Ion den du6ng loi chinh sach doi : :f 1^0^ cua T6ng th6ng My W. Willson, Tong thong thu 28 cua nuac My (3/1913-

3/1921), nguoi dS xuit chii nghia ly tuong trong Dien van tai Quoc hoi My ngay 1 1 8/1/1918. George F. Kennan (1904- 2005) la nha ngo i giao, hoc gia co anh huong 6 I |fi-'liu6c My. Trong biic dien dai tu Moskva nam 1946 va bai viet vao nam 1947 "Nguon

goc hanh vi ciia Li£n Xo" da co vii cho chinh sach ngan chan (containment) su banh trucmg cua Lifin X6 vao cu6i thS chidn thii hai v^ da gay anh huong Ion trong viec hinh

I I J, Ih&ih hoc thuySt Truman va cac chinh sach d6i ngo i ciia My trong viec kiem che Lien .Xo. Tu tuong cua Kenan da dong mpt vai tro quan trpng trong sir phat trien nhieu

I I %: chuong trinh Chien tranh lanh va dac biet la Ke hoach Marshall. Sau nay ong da nhan ra I IE sai lam cua minh. M^t minh chiing nua la chii nghia hien thuc da anh huong sau sac den

ehinh sach d6i ngoai ciia T6ng thong My W. Bush qua cuoc chien chong Taliban (2001) va chiSn tranh ch6ng Sadam Huxen a I-rac (2003).

201

Nghiin am quoc tesm (*«

phu vdi ham y la thieu mot chinh quyen trung irrmg siSuquoo gia, \ nhiem vv quSn ly chung va thiJc thi lu|t ph^nhu trong qu5c gia.

Cap tg ci nhdn

Pha coi hong c4 cSp dp cA nhto khi phto lich chfaih saeh ( ngoai cua quBc gia. Co hai loai ca nhto toh hucmg din chinh sach de ngoai. Do la cdc ca nhto Itoh dao, duong chiic, ducmg quy&i nhu tSn th6ng, thu toong, bp tru6ng ngoai giao... co vai trb quyfedinh trong v i ^ ho?oh dinh va hiSn khai chfah sach ddi ngoai. NgoM ra, c6 nhtog n l ' vat tay khong con duong chiic song co toh hudng khSng nho dfo ch sach dm ngoai nhu cac cuu lanh dao co tiSng noi, toh hucmg teong chi sich doi ngo^ vi dtt nhu cac vi Itoh dao cip cao cua Viet Nam kht flioi cam quyto va Itoi cd vto Ban chip htoh TW hojc nhu cvm T6ng th6ng | j My B. Clmton, cuu 06 vin an nfah qu6c gia H. Kitxmgio... Ben canh do, _ lai CO nhimg nhto vat khong phai Itoh djo qu6c gia song co uy tin, anh j ; hu&ng Ion d6i vdi gidi Itai chfah sach nhu cac doanh nhto ldn nhu Bill Gates....

La con ngudi thi ai ctog co 1 hrdng, quan diSm chfah hi, chhih, ,• kito, ttol ly bu6n vm... Dilu do d6u toh hudng d8n chfah sach d6i ngoai.v| \ VI du Kharutx5p khi li ngudi diing diu Dtog va Nha nude Lien Xo vdjij 1 tinh cich kha "tho bao" nen ctog toh hudng din quan he Xo - Tnin| | ^ nhung ntoi 60-70 thi ky XX. Cdn Tdng thong Putfa la ngudi rit c f a ^ rin, quyit doto, vi vay ong da de lai diu in sto sac teong chfah sach do| | ngoai cua Lien bang Nga. Vi dv 6ng ddng vai ted quyit dfah tai sip nhS^ 1 Crum (3/2014), cho khong quto Nga tham gia chiin dich tin cong IS S | Xy-ri (9/2015-3/2016)... Chinh vi viy khi phto tich chfah sich doi ngoft,, phii luu y cap do ca nhto. j

Tdm lai, c6 nhiiu nhto t i cin phii tinh din teong viec hoach djnhij chinh sach ddi ngoai. Ngoai viec tinh din cac nhto td phai luu y ci cac-

204