CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank

8/12/2019 CA en La Post Crisis. World Bank

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A C A C C:C:

11

, E , E 191920 201020 2010


2/30

AA

AC

C

F

2


3/30

AC AC

3


4/30

E

B, C,

100

105

World Industrial ProductionIndex Apr-08 = 100

Developed Countries

4: ECD , , K, C E. : CB ( B E A).

, , ,

52%

GD

80

85

90

Jan-0

6

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-0

6

Jan-0

7

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-0

7

Jan-0

8

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-0

8

Jan-0

9

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-0

9

Jan-1

0

Apr-10

Emerging Economies


5/30

AC AC

100

110

120

Industrial Production in Emerging RegionsIndex Apr/2008 = 100

EAP

LAC

5: CB ( B E A).

60

70

80

90

Jan-0

6

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-0

6

Jan-0

7

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-0

7

Jan-0

8

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-0

8

Jan-0

9

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-0

9

Jan-1

0

Apr-10

ECA


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E AC 2010E AC 20102011 2011

, C A, C A

8%

10%

12%

Real GDP Growth Forecasts for 2010-2011Annual GDP Real Growth Rate, in %

2010 2011

6: E E , D, , K, , . : CF (J 2010), B.

0%

2%

4%

6%

WesternEurope

Japan EasternEurope

US LatinAmerica

EastAsianTigers

China


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Mexico 1995

Argentina 1980 Argentina 1995

Brazil 1985 Brazil 1995

Chile 1980 Colombia 1998

Banking Crises in LAC Countries

1980-1985 1995-2000 2008-2009

AC AC

,

Ecuador 1980 Honduras 1999

Mexico 1981 Jamaica 1996

Peru 1983 Nicaragua 2000

Uruguay 1981 Paraguay 1995

Peru 1999

7 . : L (2008) (2008)


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AC AC

8


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A IB CA 2009, A IB CA 2009,

AC AC

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Recent Real GDP Growth and Forecasts for 2009-2011Annual GDP Real Growth Rate, Weighted Averages

2009 2010 2011

9: C D . : E (A10) C F (A10): E (A10) C F (J10)

-8%

Caricom (ex.Dom. Rep.)

C. Am. (inc.Dom. Rep.)

Mexico South America LAC

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Ant.&Barb.

Mexico

St.Kts.

&Nv.

Barbados

St.Lucia

Bahamas

Tri.&

Tob.

ElSalvador

Venezuela

Jamaica

St.Vc.&Grs.

Honduras

LAC

Paraguay

Nicaragua

Chile

Belize

CostaRica

Dominica

Brazil

Ecuador

Colombia

Guatemala

Argentina

Peru

Panama

Suriname

Haiti

Uruguay

Guyana

Bolivia

Dom.

Rep.

Real GDP Growth for 2009LAC Countries

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Haiti

Venezuela

Ant.&Barb.

St.Kts.

&Nv.

Bahamas

Barbados

Jamaica

St.Vc.&Grs.

Belize

St.Lucia

Dominica

ElSalvador

Tri.&

Tob.

Ecuador

Guatemala

Nicaragua

Honduras

Colombia

CostaRica

Bolivia

Dom.

Rep.

Suriname

Paraguay

Guyana

Panama

Chile

Mexico

Uruguay

LAC

Argentina

Peru

Brazil

Real GDP Growth Forecasts for 2010LAC countries


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C, C C, C

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

Cumulative Change in Monetary Policy RatesSep-08 to Mar-10, percentage po ints

30%

35%

40%

45%

Changes in Exchange RatesSep-08 to Mar-09

10: ECLAC

-9%

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

Chile

Colo

mbia

Dom.

Rep.

Peru

Brazil

Hon

duras

M

exico

Guatemala

CostaRica

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Hon

duras

CostaRica

Dom.

Rep.

Nica

ragua

Peru

Guatemala

Chile

Arge

ntina

Colo

mbia

Brazil

M

exico


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, ,

Exchange rate anchor

(US$)

Inflation targeting

framework

Other

Ecuador

El Salvador

Panama

Argentina

Honduras

Monetary Policy Framework (April 2008)

Dollarization

Peg

11: D F C E F, IF, A 2008

VenezuelaBolivia

Nicaragua

Crawling band Costa Rica

Guatemala Paraguay

Peru Dom. Rep.

ColombiaUruguay

Brazil

Mexico

Chile

Heavily Managed

Lightly Managed


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E C E C

AC... AC...

0.8

1

1.2

General Fiscal Room Index2005 - 2007 Data

oom

12: 1 H . 2 : () A. . (% GD) 20057 () A. . (%

GD) 20057 () A. . GD 20057 () A. . GD 20057 () A. (% GD) 20057 () A. : (%GD)

C (% GD) 20057 () A. : EGD C E GD 20057 () A. 20057.

1 8 ()/() (). : LCCE C DI, E

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Chile

Panama

Peru

Dom.

Rep.

CostaRica

Bolivia

Colombia

Brazil

ElSalvador

Haiti

Mexico

Argentina

Guatemala

Ecuador

Nicaragua

Paraguay

Uruguay

Honduras

Morefiscal


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C C

C, C C, C

50%

60%

70%

80%

LAC Exports to Selected Regionsas % of total exports, 2008 data

EAP Euro Zone US

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Suriname

Barbados

Jamaica

Nicaragua

Trin.&

Tob.

Honduras

Guatemala

Mexico

Bahamas

Guyana

Ecuador

Colombia

Belize

Dom.

Rep.

Bolivia

Paraguay

Ecuador

Haiti

Panama

Venezuela

Uruguay

Argentina

Brazil

CostaRica

Dominica

Peru

Chile

13: IF D (D).


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C C

0.4

0.5

0.6

Output Co-Movement Between LAC and China

20 years rolling correlation of the Real GDP Growth

South America

14: A. : 10% .

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

.

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

PanamaCosta Rica

Mexico

Nicaragua


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E C E C

CA, CA,

A

C

. .

CE

B

A 97% LAC GD 93% LAC

15

40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%

HD. .

D

C

G

B

20084 20094

20014 20082

: . 20082. 20084 (20094). : DI, DECG, H A.

A

LAC

C A

C


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: :

16


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CA CA

, , , ,

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2009 Nominal GDPIn US$ Billions

3.19%

39.61%

4.52%4.07%3.34%

% of LAC's output

22.01%

50

100

150

200

250

2009 PopulationIn Millions of People

7.17%

34.22%

8.81%8.04%7.52%

% of LAC's population

19.22%

9.13%

17: IF IF, D, DI E. : . . .

0eru Central America Chile C. A. + Dom.

Rep.

Mexico Brazil

0Argentina Central

America

Colombia South Afr ica C.A. + Dom.

Rep.

Mexico Brazil

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.40.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Trade Openness of Central America and Dom. Rep.

0.65

0.81

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Trade Openness of LAC-7 Countries

0.37

0.16


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, ,

30% 30%

15,000,000

20,000,000

Central Americas Intraregional and Total Export Flows (US$000)

Total Exports

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Costa Rica Nicaragua Honduras El Salvador Guatemala

Intraregional Exports

27.2% 26.6%

27.2%29.5%

26.5%

18Sources: World Bank LCSSD Economics Unit calculations based on Worlds Integrated Trade Solutions and SIECA data, 2010


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C , G E C , G E

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Intra-Regional Exports in Central America2007 (US$ 000)

: B LCD E I , 2010 19

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Costa RicaGuatemala

El SalvadorHonduras

PanamaNicaragua

Panama

Costa Rica

NicaraguaHonduras

Guatemala Salvador

Panama

Costa Rica

NicaraguaHonduras

Guatemala Salvador


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E E

Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala El Salvador Costa Rica

Multilateral Agreements

WTO Member

Customs Union

CACM Member

Free Trade Agreements

Canada

CARICOM

Chile - Central America

Colombia - N orthern Triangle

20

25

30

35

OTRI (MFN applied tariffs + NTMs) - All GoodsRegional Weighted Averages

2000-2004

2006-09 Latest

20: I (F +) A G ' () . A . : I, B, B, 2010. "DCAFA C A." , DC: B

om. e . - caragua

Dom. Rep. - Central America

DR-CAFTA

HND - SLV - Taiwan

Mexico

Northern Triangle - Mexico

Central America - Panama

Taiwan

Partial Preferential Agreements

Colombia

Venezuela

Panama

Trade Agreements signed but not in f orce Belize FTA China

FTA Singapore

0

5

10

15

C

ostaRica

Honduras

C.A.+

D

om.

Rep.

Chile

Nicaragua

E

lSalvador

G

uatemala

Argentina

LAC-7

Peru

Colombia

Brazil

Mexico


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/: /:

; ; ; ;

Potential growth effects of attaining the level of trade integration of the East Asian Tigers

Conditional on the structural factors of the country in 2006-10(In basis points per annum)

Trade openness interacted with:

Baseline Human Financial Institutional Infrastructure Financial Research & Economic

Model Capital Development Quality Stock Openness Development Regulations

Costa Rica 17 53 34 30 53 39 48 19

Dominican Republic 34 104 67 58 104 76 94 37

Guatemala 48 146 94 81 146 106 131 52

Honduras 7 20 13 11 20 14 18 7

Nicaragua 32 98 63 55 98 71 88 35

El Salvador 17 53 34 29 53 38 47 19

Latin America (LAC) 45 137 88 76 137 100 123 49

CAFTA 26 79 51 44 79 58 71 28

LAC (excl. CAFTA) 55 166 107 93 166 121 150 59

21: ( ) C A ( ) E A (EA7). C A EA7 . , , , , . I , , EA7 . : B, 2010. "DCAFA C A." , DC: B


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( ) ( )

C , E C , E

Real Map Central America according to each

countrys relative economic weight

Sources: World Bank, LCSSD Economics Unit calculations. 22


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GDP Importer

Central America

GDP Importer

Euro Area

CA , CA ,

Impact of key trade variables on total Intra-regional exports

(Gravity Model Estimations for Total Trade)

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Time Adjusted Distance

Adjacency

GDP Exporter

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Distance

Adjacency

GDP Exporter

: B LCD E I , 2010 23


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E :E :

C C

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

US$;Kg

Disaggregated costs incurred by a small Central American exporter

Customs, 11%

Others, 9%

Transport, 23%

Duties, 6%

24: C, C . : B C A, 2010

0

0.2

FarmGate

ProducerProfit

IntermediaryMargin

TransportFarmGa

tetoDistributionCenter

HandlingatDistributionCenter

TransportfromDistr

ibutionCentertoBorder

CustomsAg

encyServicesCostaRica

C

ustomsTimeCostaRica

Duty

CustomsAgencyServicesNicaragua

CustomsTimeNicaragua

TransportFromBordertoCenterofDistribution

HandlingatDistributionCenter

TransportformDistributionCe

ntertoOpenAirMarket

HandlingLosses

Storage

Farm Gate, 31%


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CA CA

, E , E

8

10

12

Intra-Regional Exports as a Share of Central AmericasCombined GDP (%)

25: B LCD E I , 2010

0

2

46

Current level CA AdjacencyPerformance at CA'sown best performer

level

CA AdjacencyPerformance at

EU15 level

CA DistancePerformance at

EU15 level


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E E , ,

CA CA

12,000

16,000

Potential Exports to EU27 and the USUS$ million

33%

26: , . I A C A E15, E27 .. 19% 37% ,

. : B LCD E I , 2010

To EU27 To EU27

To the U.S.

To the U.S.

0

4,000

8,000

Exports from CA, 2007 Potential exports from a spatially-integrated CA


27/30

Current flows reflect city congestion and

waiting time at the borders

Removing city congestion and waiting time at the

borders (but without considering capacity

constraints at ports or changes in road conditions)

to.Castilla

arrio

s

.Pue

rtoCortez

to.Castilla

arrio

s

.Pue

rtoCortez

27: B LCD E , 2010

!(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!

!

!

!

Pto.Co

rinto

Pto.Qu

etzal

Pto.

Pto.Ac

ajutla

Pt

Pto. Sto. Tomas de Castilla !(!(!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!

!

!

!

Pto.

Corinto

Pto.

Que

tzal

Pto.

Pto.

Acajut

la

Pt

Pto. Sto. Tomas de Castilla


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E C A E C A

C ? C ?

0

2

4

Central America Mexico South America

Current and Planned Terminal Depths across LAC

28: E , 2030, C A 7. : B LCD E , 2010

8

10

12

14

16

Meters

Average of current terminal depths Average of future terminal depths

Panamax

Post-Panamax


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??

CA

I , ,

E

I

C

I (., )

E C

29


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G!G!

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