(C2) EPS perspectives

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Takuya KOMORI 1

Kiyotomi SATO 1, Hitoshi YONEHARA 1 and Tetsuo NAKAZAWA 2

1: Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

2: Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute

(C2) EPS perspectives

2009.05.12-15 1st TRCG Technical Forum2009.05.12-15 1st TRCG Technical Forum

“Status of TIGGE Activities of JMA”

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(B1) EPS design, objectives and interpretation

“Why we need Ensemble Prediction System for TC forecasts?”

(C2) EPS perspectives

“Status of TIGGE Activities of JMA”

(B2) Application for TC forecasts “How to use the products of JMA Ensemble Prediction System?”

My Lectures in 1st TRCG Technical ForumMy Lectures in 1st TRCG Technical Forum

12 May (Tue)

13 May (Wed)

14 May (Thu)

“Please feel free to ask me a question at any time in the lectures.”

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ContentsContents

• TIGGE Project– Provision of EPS GPV

• How to get and use TIGGE data?– Provision of Tropical Cyclone Data

• How to get and use CXML (Cyclone XML) data?

• Case study from EPS Perspective– Myanmar Cyclone Nargis

• Additional Case Studies– Typhoon Fengshen– Typhoon Hagupit– Typhoon Sinlaku

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““What is TIGGE project?”What is TIGGE project?”

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Background of THORPEX Background of THORPEX

• TIGGE is an acronym for “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble“.

• THORPEX is a WMO global atmospheric research program designed to:– Advance knowledge of global-to-regional influences on weather

systems to lead to improved forecast performance– Accelerate improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week

forecasts for high-impact weather,– Contribute to the development of GIFS (the Global

Interactive Forecast System), etc.

THORPEX : The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment World Weather Research Programme of WMO

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TIGGE is a framework under THORPEX for international collaboration in development and testing of ensemble prediction systems.

Ensemble forecast data is collected in near real-time from many operational centers.

Data providers （ 10 center) BOM, CMA, CPTEC, ECMWF,JMA, KMA, Meteo-France, CMC, NCEP,UKMO

TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble )TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble )

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TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble )TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble )

• Design structure of TIGGE data set considering potential scientific research and possible real-time applications:

– Compare initial condition methods (SV, BGM, EnKF, …)– Compare multi-model and perturbed physics– Develop products ( ways to combine ensembles)– Boundary conditions for regional ensembles– Regime-dependence of ensemble configuration (size, resolution, c

omposition)– Observation targeting (case selection)– Societal and economic impact assessment

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Condition of Use of TIGGE DataCondition of Use of TIGGE Data

• The datasets available on this server are provided freely for Research and Education purposes. Before retrieving data please read the conditions below and acknowledge that you accept them.

• Registration will provide you with access to the TIGGE data with a delay of 48 hours after initial time of the forecasts.

• Registration for real-time access is handled by the THORPEX Project Office.

http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/d/license/tigge/



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The kind of data and the release time actually provided are different in each center.

TIGGE Data Set DefinitionTIGGE Data Set Definition

• Pressure Level Parameters (1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 250 and 200 hPa) – Geopotential height, Specific humidity, Temperature, U-velocity, V-velocity

– In addition geopotential height is provided at 50 hPa.

• Potential Temperature Level Parameters (320K )– Potential vorticity

• Potential Vorticity Level Parameters （ 2PVU ）– Potential temperature U-velocity, V-velocity

• Single level(32 parameters)– 10 meter u-velocity, 10 meter v-velocity, Psea, CAPE, CIN, Field capacity, Surface pressure L

and-sea mask, Orography, Skin temperature, Soil moisture, Soil temperature, Wilting point Snow depth water equivalent, Snow fall water equivalent,Sunshine duration Surface air dew point temperature, Surface air maximum temperature, Surface air minimum temperature, Surface air temperature, OLR, surface latent heat flux, surface net solar radiation, surface net thermal radiation, surface sensible heat flux,Total cloud cover, Total column water, Total precipitation

10http://dss.ucar.edu/download/tigge/tiggedocumentation.pdf

Totally 259 members for each forecast time

TIGGE Data SetTIGGE Data Set

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JMA’s Provision of EPS GPV Data for TIGGEJMA’s Provision of EPS GPV Data for TIGGE

• JMA provides GPV of One-Week EPS (WEPS) operations once a day (12UTC).– This provision was started on September 25, 2006.

• New parameters were added and the forecast time interval of all parameters were set to 6 hours on March 20, 2007.

• 60 of the 77 requested parameters are currently provided.

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Specification of JMA One-Week EPSSpecification of JMA One-Week EPS

Period 2001.3.1 2002.2.5 2006.3.1 2007.11.21

Horizontal Grid 1.125 1.125 1.125 0.5625Vertical Layer 40 40 40 60

Member 25 25 51 51Forecast time (h) 216 216 216 216Perturbation method BGM BGM BGM SV

Perturbation area North of 20N North of 20S North of 20S North of 20S

TIGGE PERIOD

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List of available parameters of One-Week EPSList of available parameters of One-Week EPS

Parameter From 25September

2006

From 20March2007

Mean sea level pressure 6 hours interval 6 hours interval

Surface Pressure 12 hours interval

6 hours interval

10m U-velocity and V-velocity 6 hours interval 6 hours interval

Surface air (dew point) temperature 6 hours interval 6 hours interval

Total precipitation 6 hours interval 6 hours interval

Total cloud cover 6 hours interval 6 hours interval

Surface air max/min temperature X 6 hours interval

Snow depth water equivalent X 6 hours interval

Total column water X 6 hours interval

All radiation and flux parameters X 6 hours interval

Skin temperature X 6 hours interval

Soil moisture X 6 hours interval

Land-sea mask and Orography X Only at step 0

Convective-related parameters X X

Field capacity X X

Snow fall water equivalent X X

Soil temperature X X

Sunshine duration X X

Wilting point X X

Parameter From 25Septembe

r2006

From 20March2007

Geopotential height

12 hours interva

l

6 hours interva

l

Specific Humidity

12 hours interva

l

6 hours interva

l

Temperature 12 hours interva

l

6 hours interva

l

U-velocity 12 hours interva

l

6 hours interva

l

V-velocity 12 hours interva

l

6 hours interva

l

Surface parameters Pressure level parameters

Parameter From 25Septembe

r2006

From 20March2007

Vorticity X X

Temperature X X

U- and V-velocity

X X

Potential T/Vor level parameters

Forecast time : 216 hours

Grid interval : 1.25 degree

Number of Member : 51

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A Sample Work Using TIGGE DataA Sample Work Using TIGGE Data

JMAJMA, , ECMWF,ECMWF, UKMOUKMO, , NCEPNCEP, , CMCCMC,, KMA KMA, , CMACMA,, BOM, BOM, CPTECCPTECTotal members: more than 200Total members: more than 200

InitialInitial T+3daysT+3days T+6daysT+6days T+9daysT+9days

Multi-Center Grand EnsembleMulti-Center Grand Ensemble (Initial Time: 2008.09.20 12UTC)(Initial Time: 2008.09.20 12UTC)

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InitialInitial

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T+1dayT+1day

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T+2daysT+2days

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T+3daysT+3days

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T+4daysT+4days

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T+5daysT+5days

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T+6daysT+6days

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T+7daysT+7days

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T+8daysT+8days

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T+9daysT+9days

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Comparison of Control ForecastsComparison of Control Forecasts

To use TIGGE data for the development of model-ensemble method,we are monitoring control forecast of each center.

RAINOLR

SST T850

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““How to get TIGGE GPV data?”How to get TIGGE GPV data?”

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ECMWF portal http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/ NCAR portal http://tigge.ucar.edu/ CMA portal http://wisportal.cma.gov.cn/tigge/

TIGGE Data PortalsTIGGE Data Portals

The TIGGE data is available from the following 3 portals:

Users can use TIGGE data through web interfaces under the condition of use.

NCAR

CMA ECMWF

http://tigge-portal.ecmwf.int/

http://tigge.ucar.edu/

http://wisportal.cma.gov.cn/tigge/

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Usage of the ECMWF Data PortalUsage of the ECMWF Data Portal

First, click this link

create session cookie

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Select Level and type of forecast

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Start and end date

Center ＆ base time

Forecast time

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parameters

Push button!

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Select area and grid

Push!

Select areaSelect grid

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““What is CXML data?”What is CXML data?”

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CXML (Cyclone XML) Data: MotivationCXML (Cyclone XML) Data: Motivation

• To facilitate easy exchange of information, a standard format to represent analyzed and forecast data for tropical and extra-tropical cyclones is proposed.

• The new format, called Cyclone XML (CXML) is descriptive and human-legible, making it easy for all human users and most automated applications to read.

CXML data

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/projects/THORPEX/CXML/index.html

• CXML data include information of multiple storms as following;– Analysis, – Forecasts of Deterministic NWP Model,– Forecasts of EPS

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JMA’s Provision of CXML DataJMA’s Provision of CXML Data

• CXML Data for western North Pacific provided by JMA includes

- GSM (Deterministic Forecast Model),

- One-Week EPS,

- Typhoon EPS.

• Provision of the data was started on 1 August 2008 for T-PARC1.

1) T-PARC is an international research projects implemented under THORPEX.

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http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/projects/THORPEX/TC/index.html

CXML providers have their own web interfaces to download the data.

Download of CXML DataDownload of CXML Data

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CXML Data Archive WebsiteCXML Data Archive Website

Click “DATA ACCESS”

CXML data are also available at the Research Data Archives at NCAR: http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds330.3/

http://dss.ucar.edu/datasets/ds330.3/

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Sign in, or register your information


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Click “Internet Download”, and users can choose CXML provider and initial times.


(C2) EPS perspectives

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