(C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.5-1 The Analysis of Financial Statements Ratios are tools and their...
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Transcript of (C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.5-1 The Analysis of Financial Statements Ratios are tools and their...
(C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.(C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.
5-5-11
The Analysis of The Analysis of Financial StatementsFinancial StatementsRatios are tools and their value is limited when used alone. The more tools used, the better the analysis. For example, you can’t use the same golf club for every shot and expect to be a good golfer. The more you practice with each club, however, the better able you will be to gauge which club to use on one shot. So to, we need to be skilled with the financial tools we use. - Diane Morrison
- CEO, R.E.C. Inc.
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Objectives of AnalysisObjectives of Analysis
Remember--the identity of the user helps Remember--the identity of the user helps define what information is needed define what information is needed
Objectives will vary depending on the Objectives will vary depending on the perspective of theperspective of the financial statement userspecific questions that are addressed
by the analysis
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CreditorsCreditors
A creditor is ultimately concerned A creditor is ultimately concerned with the ability of an existing or with the ability of an existing or prospective borrower to make prospective borrower to make interest and principal payments interest and principal payments on borrowed funds on borrowed funds
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CreditorsCreditors (cont.)(cont.)
What is the borrowing cause?What is the borrowing cause? What is the firm’s capital What is the firm’s capital
structure?structure? What will be the source of debt What will be the source of debt
repayment? repayment?
Questions raised in a credit analysis should include:
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InvestorsInvestors
An investor attempts to arrive at an An investor attempts to arrive at an estimation of a company’s future estimation of a company’s future earnings stream in order to earnings stream in order to attach a value to the securities attach a value to the securities being considered for purchase or being considered for purchase or liquidation liquidation
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InvestorsInvestors (cont.)(cont.)
How has the firm performed/what How has the firm performed/what are future expectations?are future expectations?
How much risk is inherent in the How much risk is inherent in the existing capital structure?existing capital structure?
What are expected returns?What are expected returns? What is firm’s competitive What is firm’s competitive
position?position?
The investment analyst poses questions as:
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ManagementManagement
How well the firm has performed and why?How well the firm has performed and why? What operating areas have contributed to What operating areas have contributed to
success and which have not?success and which have not? What are strengths/weaknesses of What are strengths/weaknesses of
company’s financial position?company’s financial position? What changes should be implemented to What changes should be implemented to
improve future performance?improve future performance?
Looks to financial statement data to determine:
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Caution!!!Caution!!! Keep in mind: Management Keep in mind: Management
PREPARES financial statementsPREPARES financial statements Analyst should be alert to potential for Analyst should be alert to potential for
management to influence reporting to management to influence reporting to make data more “appealing”make data more “appealing”
May want to supplement analysis with May want to supplement analysis with other sources of information apart other sources of information apart from the Annual Report prepared by from the Annual Report prepared by managementmanagement
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Sources of InformationSources of Information
Proxy StatementProxy Statement
Auditor’s ReportAuditor’s Report
MD&AMD&A
Supplementary schedulesSupplementary schedules
Form 10-K and Form 10-QForm 10-K and Form 10-Q
The analyst will want to consider the following resources:
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Other Sources of Other Sources of InformationInformation Computerized data basesComputerized data bases
Info on industry norms/ratiosInfo on industry norms/ratios Info on particular Info on particular
companies/industriescompanies/industries
Ever-expanding financial and Ever-expanding financial and investment websites investment websites
Articles in popular/business press Articles in popular/business press
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Tools and TechniquesTools and Techniques
Common-size financial statementsCommon-size financial statements
Financial ratiosFinancial ratios
Trend analysisTrend analysis
Structural analysisStructural analysis
Industry comparisonsIndustry comparisons
These include:These include:
Most important:Most important:Common sense and judgment
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Common-Size Common-Size Financial StatementsFinancial Statements
Express each account on the Express each account on the balance sheetbalance sheet as a percentage as a percentage
of total assets of total assets income statementincome statement as a as a
percentage of net sales percentage of net sales
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Key Financial RatiosKey Financial Ratios
Standardize financial data in terms Standardize financial data in terms of mathematical relationships of mathematical relationships expressed in the form of expressed in the form of
PercentagesPercentages
TimesTimes
DaysDays
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Key Financial RatiosKey Financial Ratios (cont.)(cont.)
Liquidity (Short-term liquidity)Liquidity (Short-term liquidity) ActivityActivity Leverage (Long-term solvency) Leverage (Long-term solvency) ProfitabilityProfitability MarketMarket
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Key Financial RatiosKey Financial Ratios (cont.)(cont.)
1.1. Liquidity RatiosLiquidity Ratios
Measure a firm’s ability to meet Measure a firm’s ability to meet cash needs as they arise cash needs as they arise
Five Categories of key financial ratios:
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Key Financial RatiosKey Financial Ratios
(cont.)(cont.)
2.2. Activity RatiosActivity Ratios
Measure the liquidity of specific Measure the liquidity of specific assets and the efficiency of assets and the efficiency of managing assetsmanaging assets
Five Categories of key financial ratios:
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Key Financial RatiosKey Financial Ratios (cont.) (cont.)
3.3. Leverage Ratios (Long-term Leverage Ratios (Long-term solvency)solvency)
Measure the extent of a firm’s Measure the extent of a firm’s financing with debt relative to financing with debt relative to equity and its ability to cover equity and its ability to cover interest and other fixed charges interest and other fixed charges
Five Categories of key financial ratios:
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4.4. Profitability RatiosProfitability Ratios
Measure the overall performance of Measure the overall performance of a firm and its efficiency in a firm and its efficiency in managing assets, liabilities and managing assets, liabilities and equity equity
Key Financial Ratios (cont.)
Five Categories of key financial ratios:
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Cautions!Cautions!
Ratios are valuable analytical tools Ratios are valuable analytical tools and serve as screening devices, and serve as screening devices, BUT. . .BUT. . .
They do not provide answers in and of They do not provide answers in and of themselves themselves
They are not predictiveThey are not predictive Ratios should be used with other elements of Ratios should be used with other elements of
financial analysisfinancial analysis There are no “rules of thumb” that apply to There are no “rules of thumb” that apply to
the interpretation of ratiosthe interpretation of ratios
(C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.(C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.
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Liquidity Ratios: Liquidity Ratios: Short-Term SolvencyShort-Term Solvency
Measures ability to meet short-Measures ability to meet short-term cash needs term cash needs
Current RatioCurrent Ratio
Current assetsCurrent assets
Current liabilitiesCurrent liabilities
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Liquidity Ratios: Liquidity Ratios: Short-Term SolvencyShort-Term Solvency (cont.) (cont.)
Measures ability to meet short-term cash needs Measures ability to meet short-term cash needs
more rigorously by eliminating inventorymore rigorously by eliminating inventory
Quick or Acid-Test Ratio
Current assets - InventoryCurrent assets - Inventory
Current liabilitiesCurrent liabilities
(Cash+short-term investments + A/R)
current liabilities
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Liquidity Ratios: Liquidity Ratios: Short-Term SolvencyShort-Term Solvency (cont.) (cont.)
Focuses on ability of the firm to Focuses on ability of the firm to generate operating cash flows generate operating cash flows as a source of liquidityas a source of liquidity
Cash Flow Liquidity Ratio
*Cash flow from operating
activities
Cash + Marketable securities + Cash + Marketable securities + CFO *CFO *
Current liabilitiesCurrent liabilities
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Liquidity RatiosLiquidity Ratios
Short term liquidity 2006 2005 2004 2003Current Ratio 1,18 1,43 2,04 1,65 Quick Ratio 0,52 0,68 0,86 0,40 Cash Flow Liquidity 0,55 1,21 1,61 0,92
A. Cam
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Activity Ratios: Asset Activity Ratios: Asset Liquidity, Asset Liquidity, Asset Management EfficiencyManagement Efficiency
Another measure of efficiency of firm’s Another measure of efficiency of firm’s collection and credit policiescollection and credit policies
Accounts Receivable TurnoverAccounts Receivable Turnover
net s,receivable tradeAverage
net sales,Credit
turnoverreceivable
365
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Activity Ratios: Asset Activity Ratios: Asset Liquidity, Asset Management Liquidity, Asset Management EfficiencyEfficiency (cont.)(cont.)
Another measure of firm’s efficiency Another measure of firm’s efficiency in managing its inventoryin managing its inventory
Inventory Turnover
sinventorie average
sold goods ofCost
turnoverinventory
365
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Activity Ratios: Asset Activity Ratios: Asset Liquidity, Asset Management Liquidity, Asset Management EfficiencyEfficiency (cont.) (cont.)
Another way to gain insight into a firm’s Another way to gain insight into a firm’s pattern of payment to supplierspattern of payment to suppliers
Payables Turnover
payables tradeAverage
sinventoriein COGS
turnoverpayable
365
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Cash Conversion Cycle or Cash Conversion Cycle or Net Trade CycleNet Trade Cycle
Buying or manufacturing Buying or manufacturing inventory, with some purchases inventory, with some purchases on crediton credit
Selling inventory, with some sales Selling inventory, with some sales on crediton credit
Collecting the cash Collecting the cash
The normal cycle of a firm that The normal cycle of a firm that consists of:consists of:
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Cash Conversion Cycle or Cash Conversion Cycle or Net Trade CycleNet Trade Cycle (cont.)(cont.)
Key balance sheet accounts that affect Key balance sheet accounts that affect cash flow from operating activitiescash flow from operating activities
Accounts ReceivableAccounts Receivable InventoryInventory Accounts PayableAccounts Payable
Helps the analyst understand why Helps the analyst understand why cash cash flow generation has flow generation has improved or improved or deteriorated by deteriorated by analyzing:analyzing:
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Cash Conversion Cycle or Cash Conversion Cycle or Net Trade CycleNet Trade Cycle (cont.)(cont.)
Average collection periodAverage collection periodPlusPlus
Days inventory heldDays inventory heldMinusMinus
Days payable outstandingDays payable outstandingEqualsEquals
Cash conversion or net trade cycleCash conversion or net trade cycle
Calculated as follows:Calculated as follows:
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Activity Ratios: Asset Activity Ratios: Asset Liquidity, Asset Management Liquidity, Asset Management EfficiencyEfficiency (cont.)(cont.)
Assesses effectiveness in generating Assesses effectiveness in generating sales from investments in fixed sales from investments in fixed assetsassets
Fixed Asset Turnover
Net salesNet sales
Net property, plant, equipmentNet property, plant, equipment(Average)(Average)
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Activity Ratios: Asset Activity Ratios: Asset Liquidity, Asset Management Liquidity, Asset Management EfficiencyEfficiency (cont.) (cont.)
Assesses effectiveness in generating sales Assesses effectiveness in generating sales from investments in all assetsfrom investments in all assets
Total Asset Turnover
Net salesNet sales
Total assetsTotal assets(Average)(Average)
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Activity RatiosActivity Ratios- - SummarySummaryReceivable Turnover Net Sales/Average Trade ReceivablesInventory Turnover COGS/Average InventoriesPayable Turnover Purchases/Average Trade PayablesFixed Asset Turnover Net Sales/Average PP&ETotal Asset Turnover Net Sales/Average Total Assets
Average collection period 365/receivable turnover Average days in inventory 365/inverntory turnoverAvergae payment period 365/payable turnover
Net Trade Period collection period + days in inventory -
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Activity RatiosActivity Ratios- - SummarySummaryActivity Ratios 2006 2005 2004Receivable Turnover 10,67 11,40 15,55 Inventory Turnover 4,98 6,08 6,57 Payable Turnover 14,21 13,90 25,24 PPE Turnover 0,96 0,91 0,98 Asset Turnover 0,60 0,58 0,63
Collection Period 34,21 32,00 23,47 Days in inventory 73,33 59,99 55,52 Payment period 25,68 26,26 14,46
Cash cycle 81,86 65,74 64,54
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Leverage Ratios: Leverage Ratios: Debt Financing and Debt Financing and CoverageCoverage
Considers the proportion of all assets Considers the proportion of all assets that are financed with debtthat are financed with debt
Debt Ratio
Total liabilitiesTotal liabilities
Total assetsTotal assets
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Leverage Ratios: Leverage Ratios: Debt Financing and Coverage Debt Financing and Coverage (cont.) (cont.)
Reveals the extent to which long-Reveals the extent to which long-term debt is used for the firm’s term debt is used for the firm’s permanent financing (both permanent financing (both long-term debt and equity)long-term debt and equity)
Long-term Debt to Total Capitalization
Long–term debtLong–term debt
Long-term debt + Stockholders’ Long-term debt + Stockholders’ equityequity
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Leverage Ratios: Leverage Ratios: Debt Financing and CoverageDebt Financing and Coverage
(cont.)(cont.)
Measures the riskiness of the firm’s Measures the riskiness of the firm’s capital structure in terms of the capital structure in terms of the relationship between the funds relationship between the funds supplied by creditors (debt) and supplied by creditors (debt) and investors (equity)investors (equity)
Debt to Equity
Total liabilitiesTotal liabilities
Stockholders’ equityStockholders’ equity
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Leverage Ratios: Leverage Ratios: Debt Financing and CoverageDebt Financing and Coverage
(cont.)(cont.)
Indicates how well operating earnings Indicates how well operating earnings cover fixed interest expensescover fixed interest expenses
Times Interest Earned
Operating profitOperating profit
Interest expenseInterest expense
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Leverage Ratios: Leverage Ratios: Debt Financing and CoverageDebt Financing and Coverage
(cont.)(cont.)
Measures how many times interest Measures how many times interest payments can be covered by payments can be covered by cash flow from operations cash flow from operations before interest and taxesbefore interest and taxes
Cash Interest Coverage
CFO + interest paid + taxes paidCFO + interest paid + taxes paid
Interest paidInterest paid
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Leverage Ratios: Leverage Ratios: Debt Financing and CoverageDebt Financing and Coverage
(cont.)(cont.)
Broader measure of how well operating Broader measure of how well operating earnings cover fixed chargesearnings cover fixed charges
Fixed Charge Coverage
*Rent expense = operating lease payments
Operating profit + Rent expenseOperating profit + Rent expense
Interest expense + Rent expenseInterest expense + Rent expense
(C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.(C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.
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Leverage Ratios: Leverage Ratios: Debt Financing and CoverageDebt Financing and Coverage (cont.)(cont.)
Measures firm’s ability to cover capital Measures firm’s ability to cover capital expenditures, long-term debt expenditures, long-term debt payments and dividends each yearpayments and dividends each year
Cash Flow Adequacy
Cash flow from operating activitiesCash flow from operating activities
Capital expenditures + debt Capital expenditures + debt repayments + dividends paidrepayments + dividends paid
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Leverage Ratios: Debt Financing Leverage Ratios: Debt Financing and Coverage Summaryand Coverage SummarySolvency RatiosDebt Ratio Total liabilities/Total assets LT Debt to CapitalDebt to equity Total liabilities/Total equity Times interest earned Oper. Income/Interest expense Cash interest coverage CFO + interest paid + tax paid)/Interest paid
Long-term Liquidity 2006 2005 2004Debt ratio 0,43 0,38 0,29 L/T Debt to Capitalization 0,29 0,26 0,19 debt to equity 0,83 0,67 0,43 Times interest earned 3,84 11,57 8,63 Cash Interest earned
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Profitability Ratios: Profitability Ratios: Overall Efficiency and Overall Efficiency and PerformancePerformance
Measures ability to translate sales Measures ability to translate sales into profit after consideration of into profit after consideration of cost of products soldcost of products sold
Gross Profit Margin
Gross profitGross profit
Net salesNet sales
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Profitability Ratios: Profitability Ratios: Overall Efficiency and PerformanceOverall Efficiency and Performance (cont.)(cont.)
Measures ability to translate sales Measures ability to translate sales into profit after consideration of into profit after consideration of operating expensesoperating expenses
Operating Profit Margin
Operating profitOperating profit
Net salesNet sales
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Profitability Ratios: Profitability Ratios: Overall Efficiency and PerformanceOverall Efficiency and Performance (cont.)(cont.)
Measures ability to translate sales Measures ability to translate sales into profit after consideration into profit after consideration of all expenses and revenues, of all expenses and revenues, including interest, taxes and including interest, taxes and nonoperating itemsnonoperating items
Net Profit Margin
Net earningsNet earnings
Net salesNet sales
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Profitability Ratios: Profitability Ratios: Overall Efficiency and PerformanceOverall Efficiency and Performance (cont.)(cont.)
Measures ability to translate sales into Measures ability to translate sales into cash (with which to pay bills!)cash (with which to pay bills!)
Cash Flow Margin
Cash flow from operating Cash flow from operating activitiesactivities
Net salesNet sales
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Profitability Ratios: Profitability Ratios: Overall Efficiency and PerformanceOverall Efficiency and Performance (cont.)(cont.)
Measures overall efficiency of firm Measures overall efficiency of firm in managing investment in in managing investment in assets and generating profitsassets and generating profits
Return on Total Assets (ROA) or Return on Investment (ROI)
Net earningsNet earnings
Total assetsTotal assets(Average)
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Relating the RatiosRelating the Ratios—The Du Pont System—The Du Pont System
Is helpful to complete the evaluation Is helpful to complete the evaluation of a firm by considering the of a firm by considering the interrelationship among the interrelationship among the individual ratios individual ratios
(C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.(C) 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc.
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Relating the RatiosRelating the Ratios—The Du Pont System—The Du Pont System
(cont.)(cont.)
The Du Pont System helps the The Du Pont System helps the analyst see how the firm’s analyst see how the firm’s decisions and activities over decisions and activities over the course of an accounting the course of an accounting period interact to produce an period interact to produce an overall return to the firm’s overall return to the firm’s shareholders, the return on shareholders, the return on equity equity
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Relating the RatiosRelating the Ratios—The Du Pont System—The Du Pont System
(cont.)(cont.)The summary ratios used are the following:
(1)Net profit margin
(2)Total asset turnover
(3)Return on investment
(3)Return on investment
(4)Financial leverage
(5)Return on equity
Net income Net sales Net incomeNet income Net sales Net income
Net sales X Total assets = Total assetsNet sales X Total assets = Total assets
Net income Total assets Net Net income Total assets Net incomeincome
Total assets X Stockholder equity = Stockholder Total assets X Stockholder equity = Stockholder equityequity
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Profitability Ratios: Profitability Ratios: Overall Efficiency and PerformanceOverall Efficiency and Performance (cont.)(cont.)
Measures rate of return on Measures rate of return on stockholders’ investmentstockholders’ investment
Return on Equity (ROE)
Net earningsNet earnings
Stockholders’ equityStockholders’ equity(Average)
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Profitability Ratios: Profitability Ratios: Overall Efficiency and PerformanceOverall Efficiency and Performance (cont.)(cont.)
Measures firm’s ability to generate Measures firm’s ability to generate cash from the utilization of its cash from the utilization of its assetsassets
Useful comparison to ROAUseful comparison to ROA
Cash Return on Assets
Cash flow from operating Cash flow from operating activitiesactivities
Total assetsTotal assets(Average)
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Profitability Ratios-SummaryProfitability Ratios-Summary
Profitability RatiosGross Margin Gross profit/Sales revenue Operating Margin Operating Income/Sales revenueNet Profit Margin Net Income/Sales RevenueReturn on Assets Net income/Average total assets Return on Equity Net income/Average total equity Cash Return on Assets CFO/Average total assets
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Profitability Ratios-SummaryProfitability Ratios-Summary
Profitability 2006 2005 2004Gross margin % 27,14% 27,80% 30,83%Operating Margin 10,99% 15,78% 18,61%Net Profit Margin 5,45% 9,98% 12,61%ROA = 3,25% 5,76% 7,94%ROE = 5,99% 9,37% 11,96%Cash Return on Assets 7,19% 16,58% 14,80%
A. Cam
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Market RatiosMarket Ratios
1.1. Earnings per common shareEarnings per common share2.2. Price-to-earningsPrice-to-earnings3.3. Dividend payoutDividend payout4.4. Dividend yieldDividend yield
Four market ratios of particular interest to the investor are
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Market RatiosMarket Ratios (cont.) (cont.)
Provides the investor with a Provides the investor with a common denominator to common denominator to gauge investment returnsgauge investment returns
Earnings per Common Share
Net earningsNet earnings
Average shares outstandingAverage shares outstanding
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Market RatiosMarket Ratios (cont.) (cont.)
Relates earnings per common share to the Relates earnings per common share to the market price at which the stock trades, market price at which the stock trades, expressing the “multiple” that the stock expressing the “multiple” that the stock market places on a firm’s earningsmarket places on a firm’s earnings
Price-to-Earnings
Market price of common stockMarket price of common stock
Earnings per shareEarnings per share
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Market RatiosMarket Ratios (cont.) (cont.)
Determined by the formula cash Determined by the formula cash dividends per share divided by dividends per share divided by earnings per shareearnings per share
Dividend Payout
Dividends per shareDividends per share
Earnings per shareEarnings per share
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Market RatiosMarket Ratios (cont.) (cont.)
Shows the relationship between cash Shows the relationship between cash dividends and market pricedividends and market price
Dividend Yield
Dividends per shareDividends per share
Market price of common stockMarket price of common stock
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Market RatiosMarket Ratios
Market Ratios 2006 2005 2004Price earnings ratio 46,67 16,93 11,16price to book value 1,34 1,49 1,28
A. Cam
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Five Steps of a Financial Five Steps of a Financial Statement AnalysisStatement Analysis
Who are you and why are you Who are you and why are you interested in this company?interested in this company?
What questions would you like to What questions would you like to have answered?have answered?
What info is vital to the decision at What info is vital to the decision at hand? hand?
Establish objectives of the analysis
Step 1
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Five Steps of a Financial Five Steps of a Financial Statement AnalysisStatement Analysis (cont.)(cont.)
Study the industry in which the firm Study the industry in which the firm operates and relate industry operates and relate industry climate to current and projected climate to current and projected economic developments economic developments
Step 2Step 2
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Five Steps of a Financial Five Steps of a Financial Statement AnalysisStatement Analysis (cont.)(cont.)
How well does this firm appear to be run?How well does this firm appear to be run? Are they taking advantage of Are they taking advantage of
opportunities?opportunities? Are they innovative, forward-looking, etc?Are they innovative, forward-looking, etc?
Step 3
Develop knowledge of the firm and the quality of management
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Five Steps of a Financial Five Steps of a Financial Statement AnalysisStatement Analysis (cont.)(cont.)
Common-size financial statementsCommon-size financial statements Key financial ratiosKey financial ratios Trend analysisTrend analysis Structural analysisStructural analysis Comparison with industry competitorsComparison with industry competitors
Step 4
Evaluate financial statements–tools include:
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Five Steps of a Financial Five Steps of a Financial Statement AnalysisStatement Analysis (cont.)(cont.)
Short-term liquidityShort-term liquidity Operating efficiencyOperating efficiency Capital structure and long-term Capital structure and long-term
solvencysolvency ProfitabilityProfitability Market ratiosMarket ratios Segmental analysis (when relevant)Segmental analysis (when relevant) Quality of financial reportingQuality of financial reporting
Step 4 Evaluate financial statements–areas include:
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Five Steps of a Financial Five Steps of a Financial Statement AnalysisStatement Analysis (cont.)(cont.)
Reach conclusions about the Reach conclusions about the firm relevant to your firm relevant to your established objectives established objectives
Step 5
Summarize findings based on analysis
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What we have What we have accomplishedaccomplished
Auditor’s Report
Statement of Cash Flows
MD&A
Statement of Shareholders’ EquityBalance Sheet
Note
s
Inco
me S
tate
ment
TurnedMaze
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Financial StatementsFinancial StatementsAn OverviewAn OverviewMap