by Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA
description
Transcript of by Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA
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by
Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.*
Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA
Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA
by
Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.*
Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA
Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA
October 18th, 2006Mexico City
October 18th, 2006Mexico City
HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND DROUGHTS IN MEXICOHURRICANE ACTIVITY AND DROUGHTS IN MEXICO
HydrologistDirector of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A.HydrologistDirector of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A.
**
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Agriculture is a very risky economic activity
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Climate AnomaliesClimate Anomalies
High inter-annual
climate variability
Induce high
uncertainty in
food production
El Niño Southern OscillationEl Niño Southern Oscillation
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Crop losses in rain-fed agriculture of MexicoCrop losses in rain-fed agriculture of Mexico
4
5
23
50
00 2020 4040 6060
WindWind
PestsPests
FloodsFloods
DroughtsDroughts
% Losses% Losses
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The presence of El Niño Southern Oscillation highly
modify the climate of Central America and Mexico
The presence of El Niño Southern Oscillation highly
modify the climate of Central America and Mexico
La Niña
El Niño
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Weather Station in Huamantla, Tlax.Weather Station in Huamantla, Tlax.
1995 734 mm Neutral
1997 661 El Niño
1998 675 La Niña
1995 734 mm Neutral
1997 661 El Niño
1998 675 La Niña
CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNSCHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNSCHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNSCHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNS
0
50
100
150
200
250
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
Pre
cip
. (m
m)
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0
5
10
15
20
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Year
mill
ion
s
Prod (tons) Area (ha)
TREND OF MAIZE PRODUCTION IN MEXICO AND ENSO EVENTS
El Niño La Niña
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Number of Tropical Storms
REGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITYREGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITYREGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITYREGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITY
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ENSO & HURRICANES• El Niño means more action in Pacific, suppression in Atlantic
• La Niña and Neutral conditions more activity in Atlantic, suppression Pacific
ENSO & HURRICANES• El Niño means more action in Pacific, suppression in Atlantic
• La Niña and Neutral conditions more activity in Atlantic, suppression Pacific
Formed October 15, 2005Dissipated October 25, 2005
Highest winds 185 mph (295 km/h)
Lowest pressure 882 mbar (hPa)
Lowest pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane
Damages $16-20 billion USD
Fatalities 22 direct, 40 indirect
WILMA HURRICANE
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19951995 NeutroNeutro
19961996 NeutroNeutro
19971997 Strong El NiñoStrong El Niño
19981998 La NiñaLa Niña
1999 La Niña1999 La Niña
ENSO, HURRICANES AND DROUGHTS
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PRECIPITATION ANOMALYAug-Sep-Oct, 1996
% Dev.Avg Precip.
NEUTRAL YEARNEUTRAL YEAR
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PRECIPITATION ANOMALYAug-Sep-Oct, 1997 % Dev.
Avg Precip.STRONG EL NIÑO YEARSTRONG EL NIÑO YEAR
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PRECIPITATION ANOMALYAug-Sep-Oct, 1998
% Dev.Avg Precip.
LA NIÑA YEARLA NIÑA YEAR
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PRECIPITATION ANOMALYAug-Sep-Oct, 1999
% Dev.Avg Precip.
LA NIÑA YEARLA NIÑA YEAR
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SST, 6°-18°N, 20°- 60°W
PDI North Atlantic
SST = Sea Surface Temperature
Total Annual Dissipated Energy by Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic
Emanuel (2005)
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NORTH HEMISPHERE
North Atlantic
NortheastPacífic
(Accumulated Cyclone Energy)
Klotzbach (2006)
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I
II
III
IVV
VIII
VIIVI
EVENT CLASIFICATION
• Landfall region• Category of the event• Month of occurrence• Length of records: 1960-2005• Only landfall accounted• Total event: 460• Events cat. 3,4,5: 191
HURRICANE ANALYSISMEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
Sources of Info: NOAA, SMN, UNISYS
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Japanese Meteorological Agency, SSTA
YEARS CLASSIFICACTION BASED ON THE ENSO INDEX
LA NIÑA NEUTRAL EL NIÑO
1963-1964 1960-1961 1962-1963
1966-1967 1961-1962 1964-1965
1969-1970 1965-1966 1968-1969
1970-1971 1967-1968 1971-1972
1972-1973 1976-1977 1975-1976
1973-1974 1977-1978 1981-1982
1974-1975 1978-1979 1985-1986
1987-1988 1979-1980 1986-1987
1997-1998 1980-1981 1990-1991
1998-1999 1982-1983 1996-1997
1983-1984 2001-2002
1984-1985 2004-2005
1988-1989
1989-1990
1991-1992
1992-1993
1993-1994
1994-1995
1995-1996
1999-2000
2000-2001
2002-2003
2003-2004
2005-
1960 - 2005
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
ALL
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
NEUTRAL
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
NIÑAS
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
NIÑOS
AVERAGE ANNUAL HURRICANES BY REGION
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0
5
10
15
20
25
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Neutral Niño Niña
ATLANTICHurricanes per year
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0
5
10
15
20
25
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
Neutral Niño Niña
PACIFICHurricanes per year
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MODELING HURRICANE LANDFALL
Assuming that …
The occurrence of one hurricane can be treated as an independent event from the occurrence of another hurricane, thus …
The occurrence of hurricanes can be modeled with a Poisson distribution:
Pr (X = x) = e - μ μ x
x!x = 0, 1, 2, …
μ = avg annual hits
Probability of at least one hurricane 1 - Pr (X=0)=
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PACIFIC ATLANTIC
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
ALL 0.479 0.865 0.820 0.817 0.543 0.757 0.533 0.590
NEUTRAL 0.513 0.885 0.814 0.828 0.585 0.743 0.632 0.585
NIÑAS 0.503 0.850 0.817 0.865 0.667 0.889 0.593 0.798
NIÑOS 0.365 0.876 0.838 0.720 0.239 0.559 0.087 0.239
PACIFIC ATLANTIC
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
ALL 0.160 0.729 0.479 0.444 0.309 0.353 0.178 0.353
NEUTRAL 0.148 0.674 0.513 0.493 0.356 0.381 0.213 0.274
LA NIÑA 0.095 0.632 0.451 0.330 0.393 0.330 0.259 0.727
EL NIÑO 0.239 0.597 0.420 0.365 0.087 0.239 0.000 0.087
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL
ALL EVENTS
CATEGORY 3, 4 y 5
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00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
Todos
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
Neutros
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
Niñas
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
Niños
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL, ALL CAT.
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0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
All Neutro La Niña El Niño
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL CAT. 3, 4, 5
By ENSO Phase
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
I II III IV V VI VII VIII
REGION
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14.8%
67.4%
51.3%
49.3%35.6%
27.4%
21.3%38.1%
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL
Category 3, 4 y 5
Neutral Years
Like, year 2006
March, 2006
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0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Prob (1) 0 0 0 0.18 0.33 0.11 0
PR 5.52 3.03 8.84
M J J A S O N
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Prob (1) 0.04 0.04 0.21 0.38 0.53 0.43 0.04
PR 25.5 25.5 4.69 2.62 1.88 2.33 25.5
M J J A S O N
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Prob (1) 0 0.18 0.15 0.18 0.11 0.11 0.08
PR 5.52 6.76 5.52 8.84 8.84 13
M J J A S O N
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Prob (1) 0.04 0.04 0.15 0.11 0.18 0.15 0.15
PR 25.5 25.5 6.76 8.84 5.52 6.76 6.76
M J J A S O N0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Prob (1) 0.04 0.38 0.18 0.27 0.33 0.24 0.04
PR 25.5 2.62 5.52 3.65 3.03 4.09 25.5
M J J A S O N
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Prob (1) 0 0.18 0.21 0.21 0.3 0.24 0.04
PR 5.52 4.69 4.69 3.31 4.09 25.5
M J J A S O N0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Prob (1) 0 0.15 0.11 0.15 0.24 0.21 0.04
PR 6.76 8.84 6.76 4.09 4.69 25.5
M J J A S O N
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Prob (1) 0.04 0.24 0.21 0.27 0.24 0.41 0
PR 25.5 4.09 4.69 3.65 4.09 2.47
M J J A S O N
MONTHLY PROBABILITYHURRICANE LANFALL AND RETURN PERIOD
NEUTRAL
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Atlantico - Neutro
No. de Huracanes
Pro
babi
lidad
0 5 10 15 20 250
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.2
PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALL
ATLANTIC
Neutral
El Niño
La Niña
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
NUMBER OF HURRICANES
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No. de Huracanes
Pro
babi
lidad
0 3 6 9 12 15 180
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.15
0.18
PACIFICO
Neutral
El Niño
La Niña
PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALLP
RO
BA
BIL
ITY
NUMBER OF HURRICANES
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HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN YEAR 2006
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HURRICANE LANDFALL IN YEAR 2006
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PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN SEPTEMBER DE 2006
% Desv.
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ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN YEAR 2006
% Desv.
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ABANDON SOYBEANS FIELD DUE TO DROUGHT
IN SOURTHERN TAMAULIPASOCT, 2006
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CONCLUSIONS
A large contribution of precipitation for agricultural use come from
hurricane impacts
Analyses of hurricanes landfall can be help to identify regions that
would be subjected to summer drought.
Modeling of hurricane landfall by areas and intensity of the event
would provide relevant information of regions likely to occur
drought conditions.
CONCLUSIONS
A large contribution of precipitation for agricultural use come from
hurricane impacts
Analyses of hurricanes landfall can be help to identify regions that
would be subjected to summer drought.
Modeling of hurricane landfall by areas and intensity of the event
would provide relevant information of regions likely to occur
drought conditions.