By Dr. Ghulam Rasul Chief Meteorologist Pakistan Meteorological Department [email protected] Flood...
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Transcript of By Dr. Ghulam Rasul Chief Meteorologist Pakistan Meteorological Department [email protected] Flood...
by
Dr. Ghulam RasulChief Meteorologist
Pakistan Meteorological [email protected]
Flood Management and Climatic Impacts on
Water Resources in Pakistan
LEAD Pakistan Leadership Develop Programme (LDP)-Cohort 18
3rd Learning Session on Climatic Impacts and Disaster in Water 1-5 June 2015, Regent Plaza Hotel & Convention Centre, Karachi
PMDPMDPMDPMD
Seismology
Meteorology
Hydrology
LINKAGE TO OTHER MINISTRIESLINKAGE TO OTHER MINISTRIESAVIATION METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICESAVIATION DIVISION
FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICESMINISTRY OF WATER &
POWER
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICESMINISTRY OF FOOD
SECURITY & RESEARCH
NEW MOON PREDICTION & ASTRONOMICAL DATA ANALYSIS MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUS
AFFAIRSR & D /RENEWABLE ENERGY
RESOURCES MINISTRY OF SCIENCE& TECHNOLOGY
FORECASTING & CLIMATOLOGY CLIMATE CHANGE DIVISION &DISASTER MITIGATION
ORGANIZATIONS
•Islamabad•Karachi•Lahore•Multan•Peshawar •Quetta
Regional Forecasting CentresFlood Forecasting Division
Total 39 Rain Gauges
Total 57 Rain Gauges
Total 70 Rain Gauges Total 120 Rain Gauges
•Islamabad•Karachi•Lahore•Mangla•Sialkot •R.Y.Khan
Radar Network of PMD
RADAR NETWORK OF PMD5 cm radar at Islamabad
10 cm radar at FFD Lahore Area covered by Doppler radar at Lahore
DIKIBD
RHK
KHI
LHR
ISLAMABAD RADAR OUTPUT ACCESSIBLE THROUGH PMD WEBSITE(Updated after every 10 minutes)
NATIONWIDE RADAR NETORK OUTPUT ACCESSIBLE THROUGH PMD WEBSITE(Half hourly update)
PAKISTANPAKISTANPAKISTANPAKISTAN
INDIAINDIAINDIAINDIA
AFGHANISTANAFGHANISTANAFGHANISTANAFGHANISTAN
INDUS
Chenab
Jhelum
Beas
Sutlej
Ravi
Pakistan’s Cryospheric AssetsPakistan’s Cryospheric AssetsNumber of
GlaciersArea of Glaciers
(km2)Volume of Ice
(km3)Ranges
7259 11780 2066 HKH
Cryosphere Monitoring Network of PakistanCryosphere Monitoring Network of Pakistan
Glimpses of Glacier Monitoring Stations in Northern Glimpses of Glacier Monitoring Stations in Northern PakistanPakistan
Askoli, Shigar Valley 2015 m a.s.lAskoli, Shigar Valley 2015 m a.s.l Passu Ghar, Passu Glacier 3200 m a.s.l
Urdukas, Baltoro Glacier 3926 m a.s.l Patundas, Passu Glacier 4335 m a.s.l,
EXISTING TELEMETRIC RAIN & RIVER STATIONS
(METEORBURST COMMUNICATION)
Flood/Tsunami/Tropical Flood/Tsunami/Tropical Cyclone Forecasting ModelsCyclone Forecasting Models
• IFAS Model- IFAS Model- developed in collaboration developed in collaboration with Japanese ICHARMwith Japanese ICHARM
• FEWS Model- FEWS Model- Adopted from NESPAKAdopted from NESPAK• WEB-DHMS Model- WEB-DHMS Model- Tokyo UniversityTokyo University• Storm Track Model- Storm Track Model- CSIRO AustraliaCSIRO Australia• Wave Model- Wave Model- MRI JapanMRI Japan• WRF & COSMO Model- for research on WRF & COSMO Model- for research on
αα, , ββ, , γγ meso-scale phenomenameso-scale phenomena
1. Federal Minister, Water & Power, Islamabad.2. Governor (All Provinces).3. Chairman NDMA, Islamabad.4. Chief Minister (All Provinces).5. Secretary, Aviation Division, Islamabad.6. Secretary, Ministry of Water & Power, Islamabad.7. Secretary, Ministry of Information, Islamabad.8. Chairman NHA, Islamabad.9. Chief Secretary (All Provinces & AJK).10. PDMA’S (D.G’S, All Provinces & AJK).11. Administrator & Chief Secretary, Gilgit-Baltistan.12. Chairman, Indus River System Authority, Islamabad.13. Chairman, Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad.14. Relief Commissioner, (All Provinces & A.J.K).15. The Secretary General, Red Crescent, Islamabad.16. Secretary, Irrigation Department, (All Provinces).17. D.G. Engineers, Eng. Directorate GHQ, Rawalpindi18. D.G. Relief, (All Provinces).19. D.G. Emergency Relief Cell, Cabinet Division, Islamabad.20. Chief Engineer, Mangla/Tarbela/Chashma.21. Chief Engineer, Irrigation (All Provinces).22. Chief Engineer, (All Barrages).23. Chief Engineer, C.D.O. (Muzaffarabad).24. Commissioner for Indus Waters, Lahore.25. All other concerned.
Flood Warning Dissemination
Managing Climate Extremes and Disasters in Asia: IPCC SREX Report
Number of Disasters and damages due to weather and climate in recent past history
History of Climate related Disasters in History of Climate related Disasters in PakistanPakistan
• Pakistan Floods Pakistan Floods (1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, (1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 1994, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 1994, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 20142014))
• Pakistan Floods 2010:Pakistan Floods 2010: (Around 2000 people died and over 20 (Around 2000 people died and over 20 million affected)million affected)
• 2007 Cyclone Yemyin July 2007: 2007 Cyclone Yemyin July 2007: 730 people died, some 350,000 730 people died, some 350,000
people were displaced, 1.5m affected and more than 2 m livestock people were displaced, 1.5m affected and more than 2 m livestock perished.perished.
• • Tropical cyclone Tropical cyclone Gonu (2007Gonu (2007), ), Phet 2010Phet 2010, also proved devastating , also proved devastating
in the recent past history of Pakistan in the recent past history of Pakistan
• 1998-2002 Drought: 1998-2002 Drought: At least 1.2 million people in Balochistan At least 1.2 million people in Balochistan were affected by drought, and over hundreds of people died, were affected by drought, and over hundreds of people died, mostly because of dehydration, Millions of animals perished.mostly because of dehydration, Millions of animals perished.
Images of Pakistan Floods 2010-2014Images of Pakistan Floods 2010-2014
Sindh:201Sindh:20111
KP 2010 Sindh 2011 Punjab 2012
Balochistan 2013 Punjab 2014
Extent of Monsoon Currents
Moisture Flux
2525
Pakistan’s Water Resources - Pakistan’s Water Resources - FactsFacts
IRS Inflows (1976 to 2010)IRS Inflows (1976 to 2010)
Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela)Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela)
Original Original : 18.4 MAF: 18.4 MAF (≈ 12.6 % of Average Annual Flows)(≈ 12.6 % of Average Annual Flows)
Year 2001Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF: 14.1 MAF (≈ 9.6 % of Average Annual Flows)(≈ 9.6 % of Average Annual Flows)
Present Present : 15.45 MAF: 15.45 MAF (≈ 10.53 % of Average Annual Flows)(≈ 10.53 % of Average Annual Flows)
Relative Storage Capacity of some countriesRelative Storage Capacity of some countriesPakistanPakistan 30 Days 30 Days (after Mangla Raising) (after Mangla Raising)
IndiaIndia 120 (1980s)-325 Days120 (1980s)-325 Days
EgyptEgypt 700 Days700 Days
USA USA 900 Days900 Days
Annual In Kharif( Apr-Sep)
In Rabi( Oct-Mar)
Average (1976 to 2010) 146.64 MAF 82% 18%
Maximum (in 2010) 248.45 MAF
Minimum (in 2001-02) 98.51 MAF
Pakistan has second
highest Risk factor
regarding floods after Bangladesh
CYCLONE - Another Threat
THREATS by Changing Climate
Climate Change
- Seasonal Shifts- Glaciers Melting- Sea Level Rise- Drought- Extreme Weather Events
Frequency/Intensity of Heat/Cold WavesTorrential Rains/LandslidesTropical Cyclones
Societal ImpactsAgriculture
EnergyWaterHealth
Climate Change, caused by Natural and Human Activities, is now widely recognized as the major environmental problem facing the Planet Earth
Regions/Tracks of TC/Hurricanes/Typhoons 1901-2010
Typhoons HurricanesTropical Cyclones
80%NH
20%SH
Equator
Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in Indian Ocean
•
MayMay JunJun SepSep OctOct NovNov
Bay of BengalBay of Bengal
Cyclonic StormCyclonic Storm 5959 3535 4040 8989 114114
Severe Cyc. StormSevere Cyc. Storm 4242 55 1616 3838 6363
Arabian SeaArabian Sea
Cyclonic StormCyclonic Storm 2929 3535 44 2424 2020
Severe Cyc. StormSevere Cyc. Storm 2323 2727 22 1111 1515
Comparison of Sea Surface Temperature for Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
(2000 - 2014)
Arabian sea is showing higher SST values compared to Bay of Bengal since
2000
BOBArb Sea
Frequency of Tropical Storms in Arabian Sea
Average Physical Exposure to Tropical Cyclones, assuming constant hazard, in thousand of people per year
IPCC SREX Report’s Findings (Tropical Cyclones)
Jan
Feb
Snow Maxima is shifting towards February
Snow Residency Period is Shrinking
Black Carbon
Name of Glacier
Length(km)
Aspect
Carbon
(ng/m2)
Diameter
(micron)
Hinarchi 17 S 224 131
Hisper 53 NW 161 212
Minapin 16 N 192 401
Gutumi 14 W 105 203
Bualtar 20 NW 63 116
Historical GLOF floods in Gilgit-Historical GLOF floods in Gilgit-BaltistanBaltistan
Year Date Glacier River1929 ? Chung Khumdan Shyok1932 ? Chung Khumdan Shyok1973 ? Batura Hunza1974 ? Batura Hunza1977 ? Balt Bare Hunza1978 September Darkot/Barados Gilgit1999 6-Aug Khalti/Gupis Gilgit2000 10-Jun Shimshal Hunza2000 27-Jul Kand/Hushe Indus2007 5-Apr Ghulkin Hunza2008 6-Jan Passu Hunza2008 2-Apr Ghulkin Hunza2008 22-May Ghulkin Hunza2008 24-May Ghulkin Hunza2008 14/15 June Ghulkin Hunza2009 26-Mar Ghulkin Hunza
David Archer GTZ/WAPDA August 2001, UNDP Report 2007, NARC Report 2008, Focus Humanitarian Assistance and Pamir times
Climate Projections Climate Projections for for
2121stst Century Century
Decadal Mean Precipitation (mm) Change RCP 4.5 Decadal Mean Precipitation (mm) Change RCP 4.5
Expected Change in Mean annual cycle of monthly Expected Change in Mean annual cycle of monthly temperature (temperature (◦◦C) and rainfall (mm/day) compared with 1981-C) and rainfall (mm/day) compared with 1981-
2010 Average2010 Average
CONCLUSION
• All indicators suggest that water cycle variability will be the greatest challenge in changing climate
Too much water and too little water
Way ForwardWay Forward
• Improvement of Observation NetworkImprovement of Observation Network• Forests can reverse the climate change process even Forests can reverse the climate change process even
under global warmingunder global warming
• Enhance water storageEnhance water storage
• Coordination among Research GroupsCoordination among Research Groups
• Establishment of Water Environment ForumEstablishment of Water Environment Forum
• Scientific research on future of water Scientific research on future of water resources must become part of policy resources must become part of policy formulation formulation
• Mobilization of AcademiaMobilization of Academia
Thank You