by Arlie M. Skov P.E. CCCOGP Meeting The Grand, Long Beach, CA September 17, 2008
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Transcript of by Arlie M. Skov P.E. CCCOGP Meeting The Grand, Long Beach, CA September 17, 2008
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by Arlie M. Skov P.E.CCCOGP Meeting
The Grand, Long Beach, CASeptember 17, 2008
by Arlie M. Skov P.E.CCCOGP Meeting
The Grand, Long Beach, CASeptember 17, 2008
U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?
U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?
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Sources of EnergySources of EnergyPrimary
Fossil fuels: Coal, oil, gas (stored biomass)
Solar: Sunlight, wind, hydropower, biomass,
Nuclear: Geothermal, fission, fusion
Celestial motion: Tides
“Dark Energy”: 72% of universe
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Sources of EnergySources of EnergySecondary or Converted (With Losses)
Electricity
Hydrogen
Ethanol, biodiesel, etc.
Muscle power (biomass)
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U.S. Energy Use: 100 Quads/Year and Growing at One Quad/YearU.S. Energy Use: 100 Quads/Year and Growing at One Quad/YearOne Quad is One Quadrillion BTU’s (1 x 1015)
Or 160 mn bbls oil (440,000 BOPD)
Or 50 mn tons of coal (3000 trainloads)
Or 12 bn gal. of ethanol (30 mn acres, half of all corn)
Or 37 new 1000 MW nuclear power plants
Or 50 mn cords of wood (annual new growth of 85 mn acres, 1/3 all US forest land)
Or 150,000 1 MW wind turbines
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U.S. Energy, Fuel, Farm WorkersU.S. Energy, Fuel, Farm Workers
1650 to 2000
En
ergy
Use
, Fu
els,
Wor
kers
100 100 230 360 340MMBTU per Capita
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FuelResidential &
Commercial IndustrialTranspor-
tationElectric
Power Total
Coal 0.1 1.9 - 20.8 22.8
Gas 7.9 8.0 0.7 7.0 23.6
Oil 1.9 9.7 27.6 1.7 39.8
Subtotal Fossil Fuels
9.9 19.6 28.2 28.5 86.2
Nuclear - - - 8.4 8.4
Hydro - - - 2.2 2.5
Biomass 0.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.6
Other 0.1 - - 0.6 0.7
Total 10.6 21.6 28.9 40.6 101.6
U.S. Energy Use – 2007 U.S. Energy Use – 2007 By Fuel, By Sector, in Quads
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Fuel Quads Percent
Coal 1.3 6
Gas 0.4 2
Oil 3.7 10
Subtotal Fossil 5.4 7
Nuclear 1.8 28
Hydro (-1.2) (-32)
Subtotal 0.5 16
All Renwables (-0.3) (-5)
All 6.8 7.2
Rate of Change in U.S. Energy UseRate of Change in U.S. Energy UseBy Source, 1997-07
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Rate of Change in U.S. Use of Renewable EnergyRate of Change in U.S. Use of Renewable Energy
Source Absolute, Quads Percent
Hydro (-1.18) (-32)
Wood (-0.21) (-9)
Waste (-0.12) (-22)
Ethanol 0.83 344
Geothermal 0.03 9
Solar 0.01 14
Wind 0.29 738
Total Renewables (-0.35) (-6)
By Source, 1997-07
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Year$/bbl, Nom.
$/bbl, $2000
US Use, bn bbl GDP, $ tn
Oil, % of GDP
1949 $2 $16 2.1 $1.6 2.0%
1981 $32 $54 5.9 $5.3 5.9%
1986 $13 $8 5.9 $6.3 1.7%
2008 $150 $123 7.6 $12.4 7.5%
Oil Prices, Consumption,and the Economy
Oil Prices, Consumption,and the Economy
A Brief History
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Oil Prices and the EconomyOil Prices and the Economy
Period (Years)% Chg.,
Oil priceNo. of
RecessionsAvg.
Severity*Avg. Peak
Inflation
1949-73 (24) (-21%) 5 20 2%
1973-81 (8) 341% 3 36 11%
1986-02 (16) 23% 2 6 4%
2002-07 (5) 158% 0 — —
Duration (months) X Depth (peak GDP drop, %) 1929-33 = 1420
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Summary: Status of U.S. Energy UseSummary: Status of U.S. Energy Use
U.S. economy grew using cheap energy
Biggest uses and growth rates
– Electric power, 41 Q, 15%
– Transportation, 29 Q, 16%
Both coal and oil produce CO2
CO2 capture and sequestration?
Growth and Problems
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What Must Be DoneWhat Must Be Done
Build new nuclear power plants, recycle spent fuel and alleviate regulatory political restrictions
Use CO2 capture & sequestration for coal-fired plants
Fully develop low-cost intermittent sources: Wind, solar, tides, etc.
Conservation, automatic with price?
Build more dams with pumped storage
Electric Power
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What Must Be DoneWhat Must Be Done
Liquid fuel for autos, trucks, tractors, trains, planes and boats is indispensable
Must develop all U.S. oil and gas resources, onshore and offshore
Develop biofuels as competing uses permit
Build Fischer-Tropsch plants with CO2 capture
Longer term: Computer control of traffic, electric power and batteries for land transport
Transportation
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Problems with Wind PowerProblems with Wind Power
Intermittency and Predictability, (E=mv3)
Germany, 2004: Wind Power from 7000 Wind Turbines, % of Daily Peak Grid Load, From 0.2-38%!
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History of U.S. Nuclear PowerHistory of U.S. Nuclear Power
Number of New Units Annually & Years to Build
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How Fast Can We Develop U.S. Energy Sources?How Fast Can We Develop U.S. Energy Sources?
Sources Time Frame Increase Quads/Year
Oil (GOM) 1996-02 750 MBOPD 0.28
Oil (GOM) 2006-10 850 MBOPD 0.48
Nuclear 1973-74 15/year 2.47
China plans 100 new nuclear units
2008-20 8/year 1.37
Biofuels 2006-07 — 0.22
Wind 2006-07 — 0.06
Solar 2006-07 — 0.01
Geothermal 2006-07 — 0.01
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Excess regulation
Proliferation of NGO’s
Lawsuits
A pampered public
Obsequious politicians pandering to a pampered public and to NGO’s
Impediments to Rapid Development of New U.S. Energy SourcesImpediments to Rapid Development of New U.S. Energy Sources
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Effeteness: Lacking or loss of ability to get things done
Effeteness: Lacking or loss of ability to get things done
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Prudhoe Bay Oil Planned 4 years
Actual 8 years
Yucca Mountain
Planned 14 years
Current 33 years
Cost to Date $9 billion
ITER Planned 15 years
Current 32 years
Cost to Date $15 billion
Examples of Legal & Regulatory DelaysExamples of Legal & Regulatory Delays
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“Four years to design and build a new Chevrolet? *#}! We won World War II in less time than that!”
- Ross Perot (as member of GM Board)
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U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?
U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?
We need both… and quickly.
Alleviate or eliminate barriers to action: legislative, judicial, environmental, partisan, political bickering, NIMBY & BANANA
Quickly develop comprehensive energy plan – not piecemeal, partial, political, or slowly
Implement plan quickly and decisively, before the world economy and ours collapses completely
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What About the Federal Energy Bill?What About the Federal Energy Bill?
Mandates 35 mpg for autos (including SUV’s) by 2020, up from 27.5
Mandates 36 bn gal of biofuels per year by 2022, w/ max of 15 bn corn-based ethanol
Today’s use: 140 bn gal gasoline and 6 bn gal biofuels
Signed December 19, 2007
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A Brief History of CAFEA Brief History of CAFE
Enacted 1975
Autos standard set at 27.5 MPG
Light trucks (pickups, vans, SUV’s) exempt
Auto mpg 1975-05: up 64% to 22.9 MPG
Light trucks mpg up 54% to 16.2 MPG
Light trucks, as % of automotive fleet, up from 15% to 41%
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
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“CAFÉ is like trying to fight obesity by requiring tailors to make only small size clothing.”
- Bob Lutz, Chairman, GM
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Correlation Function, EU.S. Energy UseCorrelation Function, EU.S. Energy UseE = Q/P*G (Q=quads, P=population, G=GDP in 1996$)
Ln
E
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Lessons from Early U.S. HistoryLessons from Early U.S. History
Prior to 1850, used only “renewable” fuels
From 1800 to 1925, % of US work force on farms dropped from 86% to 19%
Concurrently, “renewable” fuel use dropped from 100% to 10%
Total fuel use jumped 45-fold, from 0.5 quads to 22.4.
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by Arlie M. Skov Cosmopolitan Club of Santa Barbara
Elks Lodge, Goleta, CAJuly 17, 2008
by Arlie M. Skov Cosmopolitan Club of Santa Barbara
Elks Lodge, Goleta, CAJuly 17, 2008
U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?
U.S. Energy Needs:Fossil Fuels or Renewables?