BUY Inspiring performance Industries - 1QFY18 - HDFC sec...Domestic revenues growth, ex-destocking...

RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY18 10 AUG 2017

Britannia Industries BUY

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Inspiring performance BRIT’s net revenue was up 5.6% to Rs 22.2bn vs. our expectation of 1%. EBITDA and PAT up by 4% and -1%. BRIT’s revenue grew by healthy ~7%, despite destocking, that impacted revenues by 5%. Volume growth of 3% was better than other consumer companies. Domestic volume was for Dabur -4.4%, Emami -18%, Marico -9%, Colgate -5% and HUL flat. BRIT’s continued market share gain was heartening, especially in the rural market (double-digit growth). BRIT’s focus areas remain the same viz (1) Premiumisation through innovation, (2) Distribution expansion (largely in rural areas and increase in direct reach), (3) Growth acceleration in weak markets (Rajasthan, MP, UP, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh), (4) New launches and (4) Cost optimisation. This success of this strategy is reflected in the company’s figures. Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 11%/32%/36% respectively during FY13-FY17. Given healthy earnings growth (20% EPS CAGR over FY17-

20E), improving core RoCE and FCF generation of Rs 11-12bn in FY19-20, high valuations are natural. With improving consumption dynamics, we upgrade our target P/E multiple to 38x vs. 35x earlier. We value BRIT based on P/E of 38x Jun-19EPS. We maintain BUY rating with a TP of Rs 4,418. Highlights for the quarter Healthy revenue growth: BRIT’s revenue growth was

healthy despite destocking pressure and weak performance of the international and dairy business.

Slow PAT growth: GM contracted by 112bps owing to 6% input inflation and delay in price hike (plans to hike in 2-3 months). Cost control initiatives helped, and EBITDA margin was down by only 26bps to 14.5%. Higher depreciation/taxes with lower other income resulted in 1% decline in PAT to Rs 2.16bn vs. expectation of Rs 2.25bn.

Near-term outlook: The stock has run up by 26% in the last six months and captures the near-term upside. We remain positive for BRIT’s long-term potential.

Financial Summary (Rs mn) 1QFY18 1QFY17 YoY (%) 4QFY17 QoQ (%) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Revenue 22,637 21,408 5.7 22,444 0.9 83,972 90,541 1,02,867 1,18,421 1,36,311 EBITDA 3,285 3,162 3.9 3,081 6.6 12,144 12,782 15,603 18,442 21,770 APAT 2,160 2,192 (1.4) 2,109 2.4 8,246 8,846 10,420 12,753 15,563 EPS (Rs) 18.0 18.3 (1.4) 17.6 2.4 68.7 73.7 86.8 106.3 129.7 P/E (x) 58.7 54.7 46.4 37.9 31.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 39.2 37.5 30.2 25.3 21.0 Core RoCE (%) 74.8 44.1 43.2 50.5 54.0 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY FMCG

CMP (as on 9 Aug 2017) Rs 4,059

Target Price Rs 4,418

Nifty 9,908

Sensex 31,798

KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg BRIT IN

No. of Shares (mn) 120

MCap (Rs bn)/(US$ mn) 487/7,636

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 558

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 4,215 /2,773

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 13.0 25.8 29.7

Relative (%) 6.7 13.6 16.5

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters 50.73

FIs & Local MFs 11.66

FPIs 14.85

Public & Others 22.76 Source : BSE

Naveen Trivedi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7324

mailto:[email protected]

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY18

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Quarterly Financials Year to March (Rs mn) 1QFY18 1QFY17 YoY (%) 4QFY17 QoQ (%) Net Revenue 22,637 21,408 5.7 22,444 0.9 Material Expenses 13,873 12,879 7.7 13,915 (0.3) Employee Expenses 926 868 6.8 897 3.3 Other Operating Expenses 4,553 4,499 1.2 4,551 0.0 EBITDA 3,285 3,162 3.9 3,081 6.6 Depreciation 332 279 19.1 322 3.0 EBIT 2,953 2,883 2.4 2,759 7.1 Other Income 352 394 (10.7) 335 5.0 Interest Cost 13 15 (15.3) 13 (3.8) Exceptional item - - - PBT 3,293 3,263 0.9 3,081 6.9 Tax 1,133 1,071 5.8 973 16.4 RPAT 2,160 2,192 (1.4) 2,109 2.4 EPS 18.0 18.3 (1.4) 17.6 2.4 Margin Analysis Particulars (%) 1QFY18 1QFY17 YoY (bps) 4QFY17 QoQ (bps) Material Cost 61.3 60.2 112 62.0 (72) Employee Expenses 4.1 4.1 4 4.0 10 Other Expenses 20.1 21.0 (91) 20.3 (17) EBITDA 14.5 14.8 (26) 13.7 79 Tax Rate 34.4 32.8 157 31.6 282 APAT 9.5 10.2 (70) 9.4 14 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Healthy 1Q performance giving confidence of better revenue growth in the ensuing quarters Domestic revenues growth, ex-destocking pressure, was at 11-12% during the quarter Gross margin was down owing to 6% input inflation and delay in price hike. Mgt plans to make a price hike in the next 2-3 months Cost optimisation maintained EBITDA margin


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Quarterly Net Revenue Quarterly Volume Growth

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Quarterly EBITDA Quarterly Gross And EBITDA Margin

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Volume growth remained challenging. We expect improvement in the coming quarters Despite steep fall in gross margin, maintenance of EBITDA margin is encouraging

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Gross Margin (%) EBITDA Margin (%)

Rs mn


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Revenue Performance Gross Margin


EBITDA Margin NPM


BRIT’s FY17 performance was impacted by demonet and high input price inflation. We expect improved performance in FY18 Several cost control initiatives have helped the company sustain margins

28 34 38

46 55 61

68 78 83

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Net Sales YoY Gr. CAGR (%) - RHS

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Progress In Weak States

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Direct Reach Britannia’s Market Share In Weak States


BRIT continued to have strong traction in Gujarat, MP and Rajasthan. Growth in UP has not yet picked up, but the recent change in govt. can be a game changer from the overall demand point of view Gujarat, Rajasthan, UP, MP and Chhattisgarh combined comprise ~35% of India’s population. Further, gaining traction in these states would spur BRIT’s growth momentum BRIT’s market share in Gujarat, Rajasthan, UP and MP is just 1/5th that of market leader Parle BRIT’s direct reach has been 2x in the last 3 years. BRIT’s direct reach is 2x vs. Parle

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Gujarat MP UP Rajasthan

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

UP growth has so far been uninspiring . New govt. can be a game changer for growth

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Leader's Mkt Share Britannia Mkt Share

Britannia is 1/5 of the market leader


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BRIT’s Market Share

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Management’s strategies have succeeded in gaining profitable market share in the last 2 years


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Input Inflation Wheat Flour Prices Sugar Prices


RPO Prices Milk Prices



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Key Assumptions Assumptions FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Revenue Growth (%)

Biscuits and high protein food 10.9% 8.0% 13.0% 14.0% 14.0% Bread, bread toast and rusk 12.2% 8.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% Cake 18.3% 12.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% Dairy Business -2.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% International Business 28.1% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%

Gross Margin (%) 40.3% 38.3% 39.5% 40.0% 40.5% ASP (% of sales) 5.3% 4.3% 4.5% 4.8% 5.0% Distribution (% of sales) 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% EBITDA Margin (%) 14.5% 14.1% 15.2% 15.6% 16.0% Tax Rate (%) 32.5% 32.2% 33.0% 31.0% 30.0% NPM (%) 9.8% 9.8% 10.1% 10.8% 11.4% Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research


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Income Statement Year End March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net Revenues 83,972 90,541 1,02,867 1,18,421 1,36,311 Growth (%) 6.9 7.8 13.6 15.1 15.1 Material Expenses 50,127 55,887 62,234 71,053 81,105 Employee Expense 3,414 3,526 3,954 4,369 4,828 ASP Expense 4,461 3,850 4,632 5,628 6,819 Distribution Expense 4,310 4,459 5,040 5,803 6,679 Other Expense 9,517 10,037 11,403 13,127 15,110 EBITDA 12,144 12,782 15,603 18,442 21,770 EBITDA Growth (%) 40.6 5.3 22.1 18.2 18.0 EBITDA Margin (%) 14.5 14.1 15.2 15.6 16.0 Depreciation & Amortisation 1,134 1,193 1,393 1,578 1,760 EBIT 11,010 11,589 14,210 16,864 20,009 Other Income (Including EO Items) 1,244 1,505 1,393 1,649 2,251

Interest 49 55 50 30 27 PBT 12,205 13,040 15,553 18,483 22,233 Tax 3,961 4,197 5,132 5,730 6,670 RPAT 8,246 8,846 10,420 12,753 15,563 Adjustment - - - - - APAT 8,246 8,846 10,420 12,753 15,563 APAT Growth (%) 27.2 7.3 17.8 22.4 22.0 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 68.7 73.7 86.8 106.3 129.7 EPS Growth (%) 27.1 7.3 17.8 22.4 22.0


Balance Sheet Year End March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 240 240 240 240 240 Reserves 20,739 26,767 33,576 41,996 52,938 Total Shareholders Funds 20,979 27,007 33,816 42,236 53,178 Minority interest 25 26 26 26 26 Long Term Debt 377 314 264 214 164 Short Term Debt 934 922 882 846 812 Total Debt 1,311 1,236 1,146 1,060 976 Net Deferred Taxes (444) (231) (231) (231) (231) Non Current Liabilities 282 307 348 396 452 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 22,153 28,344 35,105 43,488 54,400 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 8,343 10,322 12,353 13,815 15,095 CWIP 901 301 - - - Goodwill 1,159 1,278 1,278 1,278 1,278 LT Loans & Advances 2,562 834 948 1,091 1,256 Other Non Current Assets 562 1,610 1,829 2,106 2,424 Total Non-current Assets 13,528 14,345 16,408 18,290 20,052 Inventories 4,407 6,615 7,515 8,651 9,958 Debtors 1,706 1,792 2,036 2,343 2,697 Other Current Assets 6,095 12,030 13,668 15,735 18,112 Cash & Equivalents 8,760 6,076 13,343 19,191 27,076 Total Current Assets 20,967 26,512 36,561 45,921 57,843 Creditors 9,827 9,822 14,807 17,204 19,444 Other Current Liabilities 2,516 2,691 3,057 3,519 4,051 Total Current Liabilities 12,343 12,513 17,864 20,723 23,495 Net Current Assets 8,625 14,000 18,697 25,198 34,348 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 22,152 28,344 35,105 43,488 54,400



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Cash Flow Statement Year ending March (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Reported PBT 11,979 13,040 15,553 18,483 22,233 Non-operating & EO Items (872) - - - - Interest Expenses 49 55 50 30 27 Depreciation 1,134 1,193 1,393 1,578 1,760 Working Capital Change 1,356 (8,072) 2,530 (688) (1,589) Tax Paid (4,032) (4,197) (5,132) (5,730) (6,670) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 9,614 2,019 14,393 13,673 15,762 Capex (2,494) (2,574) (3,239) (3,040) (3,040) Free Cash Flow (FCF) 7,120 (555) 11,154 10,633 12,722 Investments (5,967) 3,002 (500) (500) (500) Non-operating Income 1,409 978 (175) (371) (427) INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (7,052) 1,406 (3,914) (3,911) (3,967) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (168) (63) (50) (50) (50) Interest Expenses (51) (55) (50) (30) (27) FCFE 2,343 3,308 10,378 9,682 11,717 Share Capital Issuance 44 - - - - Dividend (2,308) (3,177) (3,611) (4,333) (4,333) Others - - - - - FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (2,483) (3,295) (3,711) (4,413) (4,410) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 78 130 6,767 5,349 7,384 EO Items, Others 379 188 - - - Closing Cash & Equivalents 889 1,208 7,974 13,323 20,707


Key Ratios FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 40.3 38.3 39.5 40.0 40.5 ASP 5.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0 EBITDA Margin 14.5 14.1 15.2 15.6 16.0 EBIT Margin 13.1 12.8 13.8 14.2 14.7 APAT Margin 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.8 11.4 RoE 49.3 36.9 34.3 33.5 32.6 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 74.8 44.1 43.2 50.5 54.3 RoCE 45.9 35.2 33.0 32.5 31.8 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 32.5 32.2 33.0 31.0 30.0 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 Inventory (days) 19.2 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 Debtors (days) 7.42 7.22 7.22 7.22 7.22 Other Current Assets (days) 26.5 48.5 48.5 48.5 48.5 Payables (days) 42.7 39.6 52.5 53.0 52.1 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (0.6) 31.9 19.0 18.5 19.5 Net D/E (x) (0.4) (0.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0.5) Interest Coverage (x) 226.1 212.6 282.1 558.2 735.4 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 68.7 73.7 86.8 106.3 129.7 CEPS 78.2 83.7 98.4 119.4 144.4 Dividend 20.0 22.0 25.0 30.0 32.0 Book Value 174.8 225.1 281.8 352.0 443.1 VALUATION P/E (x) 58.7 54.7 46.4 37.9 31.1 P/BV (x) 23.1 17.9 14.3 11.5 9.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 39.2 37.5 30.2 25.3 21.0 EV/Revenues (x) 5.7 5.3 4.6 3.9 3.4 OCF/EV (%) 2.0 0.4 3.1 2.9 3.5 FCF/EV (%) 1.5 (0.1) 2.4 2.3 2.8 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 0.5 0.7 2.1 2.0 2.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8



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RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 30-Mar-17 3,391 BUY 3,773 31-May-17 3,419 BUY 3,723 10-Aug-17 4,059 BUY 4,418

2,200

2,700

3,200

3,700

4,200

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Britannia Inds TP


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Disclosure: I, Naveen Trivedi, MBA, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock –No HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. 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mailto:[email protected]


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BUY Inspiring performance Industries - 1QFY18 - HDFC sec...Domestic revenues growth, ex-destocking...

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