Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 · Source: Global Intelligence Alliance,...

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Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017

Findings from global survey, June 2012

Everyone is talking about Emerging Markets. But what is the reality behind the scenes?

In April-May 2012, GIA sought to find out how global companies are thinking about Emerging Markets. What do they view as success factors or threats? What mistakes have been made, and should be avoided? Do companies have the information to capture fast moving market opportunities?

This study is important. Half the respondents say at least 30% of their global revenues will come from Emerging Markets by 2017. As a market intelligence partner to companies around the world, we are positioned at the forefront of our clients’ international plans, particularly for Emerging Markets. With this study, we share the strategic ambitions, concerns and challenges facing companies in fast growing markets. We trust this will prove enlightening for your Emerging Markets strategy.

I welcome you to share your thoughts with any of my colleagues, as our mission is to help companies understand, compete and grow in global markets.

www.globalintelligence.com | [email protected]

Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Why this study is important

Markko Vaarnas CEO Global Intelligence Alliance

Emerging Markets focus and expectations

•  Most companies define Emerging Markets as BRIC or BRIICS, or based on stage or growth of economic development, but other factors such as market size, location and industry-specific opportunities come into play when prioritizing countries.

•  BRIC countries are still seen as the top four Emerging Markets for 2012-2017. Interest in Russia is lagging behind the other three countries.

•  Most of the non-BRIC Emerging Markets that international companies plan to target in 2012-2017 are in Asia or Latin America. Indonesia is the next upcoming Emerging Market, with over a quarter of companies naming it fifth after the BRICs. South Africa, Vietnam, Mexico and Turkey follow.

•  Asian, European and Latin American companies are all bullish about expected revenues from Emerging Markets (38%, 37% and 36% of total revenues by 2017, respectively), followed by US companies (34%).

Executive Summary: Brazil, China and India dominate Emerging Markets

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Motivations and concerns

•  Most companies see a presence in Emerging Markets as necessary to their future success, and are investing now to gain a foothold and build global market share.

•  It has become less about lower production costs, though this is still a driver for some.

•  Almost all companies (91%) say they could have done something better in their Emerging Market strategy.

•  The main regrets are not adapting more to local conditions, not entering sooner and not acquiring better market intelligence.

•  Over half say that information on Emerging Markets is not readily available in their organizations, with three out of four doubting the accuracy and completeness of the information that they do have.

Indonesia gaining as companies seek market share

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How can global companies succeed in Emerging Markets in 2012-2017?

•  In April-May 2012, GIA conducted an online survey amongst business managers at 431 large and mid-sized companies around the world.

•  We asked them questions such as: •  How do you define Emerging Markets in your company? •  Which are the top Emerging Markets for your industry over the next five years? •  What key factors will determine whether foreign companies succeed in Emerging Markets? •  What are the biggest threats to succeeding in Emerging Markets? •  What are your company’s main reasons for investing in Emerging Markets? •  What share of your company’s global revenue do you expect to come from Emerging Markets? •  Which one aspect of your Emerging Markets strategy would you go back and change if you could?

•  The respondents’ job functions included strategic planning/business development (26%), market/competitive intelligence (23%), senior management (19%), sales and marketing (13%), research and development/product management (9%), among others.

•  Nearly half (42%) of the companies in the survey earned more than $1.3 billion (1 billion Euro) in annual revenue and more than 50% (58%) have more than 1,000 employees.

•  See Appendix for more details about the survey sample.

430 managers told us what drives their strategy How do companies perceive Emerging Markets; what are their plans; what do they want to achieve?


•  Manufacturing & Industrial

•  Telecommunication, Technology & Media

•  Professional & Business Services

•  Financial Services

•  Consumer & Retail

•  Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

•  Energy, Resources & Environment

•  Automotive

•  Chemicals

•  Logistics & Transportation

10 industries are represented in this report The industries are represented by the following symbols


•  GIA took the opportunity to donate $6.50 / 5 Euros for every completed survey response.

•  The total donation came close to $2,800 / 2,200 Euros, distributed across the following local charities:

This study also helped people living in Emerging Markets Donations from this study went to four charities assisting poor communities in Emerging Markets


•  Cambodia: Tabitha (NGO that runs self-help programs on personal and financial development for the poorest people)

•  Brazil: VidaBela (NGO that awards university scholarships to talented candidates from highly disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds)

•  Russia: Gift of Life/Podari Zhizn (charity that funds vital medicine for leukemia treatment and searches for potential bone marrow donors for children)

•  South Africa: CANSA (NGO that provides holistic cancer care and support to those affected by the disease)


Emerging Markets focus to 2017


Most companies think of Emerging Markets as BRIC, BRIICS, or based on stage of economic development

9

Market growth rate is also important and a quarter of companies classify by region

How Global Companies Define Emerging Markets

39%

31%

28%

27%

23%

20%

16%

10%

8%

3%

Stage of economic development

Market growth rate

BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China)

BRIICS (BRIC, Indonesia, S. Africa)

By geography (eg. in region X)

Penetration level of product/service

Market not in US, W. Europe, Japan

Penetration level by my company

Penetration level by multinationals

Proprietary listings eg. FTSE, S&P

Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Survey. Respondents were allowed to select more than one.

Question: How do you define Emerging Markets in your company? N=411.


55% BRIC or BRIICS


Emerging Markets in Asia and Latin America are generating the most interest

10

Top 10 Emerging Markets (2012-2017) by % all companies


Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Survey.

Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry over the next 5 years? N=427.

Russia, South Africa and Turkey are the other top targets for the next five years


Brazil, China and India seen as equally important in the next five years

11

Russia is also still significant but the level of interest is well behind the top three

Top Four Emerging Markets (2012-2017)

66.4%

65.7%

65.4%

39.7%

India

Brazil

China

Russia


Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Survey. Respondents were allowed to select more than one. * Figures based on 2012, 2013 and 2017 average from IMF World Economy Outlook: Growth Resuming, Dangers Remain

•  Brazil, Russia, India and China are still the top four most important Emerging Markets for 2012-2017.

•  Russia is least favored amongst the BRIC countries, with the majority (~65%) focusing more on India, Brazil and China with equal levels of interest.

•  According to the IMF, average GDP growth rates for 2012-2017* will be 7.4% for India, 3.7% for Brazil, 8.5% for China and 3.9% for Russia.

•  Brazil and Russia seem to be finding favor for reasons other than their growth rates, such as their potentially huge domestic markets, natural resources and dominance within their regions. Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry

over the next 5 years? N=427.


26%

28%

21%

33%

29%

25%

24%

32%

17%

19%

15%

13%

28%

28%

40%

22%

US headquarters

European headquarters

Latin American headquarters

Asian headquarters

Brazil Russia India China

European companies are prioritizing Asia and Latin America despite their proximity to Russia

12

Latin American companies are less adventurous when it comes to looking outside their home region

Top Four Emerging Markets by Location of Headquarters (2012-2017)


Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry over the next 5 years? (To 2017) N=395 (Total): N=95 (US), N=161(Europe), N=44 (Latin America), N=95 (Asia).



205.72 1,205.10 1,343.24 138.08

China’s economy outweighs the other BRIC countries but Brazil and Russia have highest GDP per capita

13

Different BRIC countries are attracting interest and investment for different reasons


Source: Global Intelligence Alliance; IMF; CIA

Population Persons (millions)

GDP USD (Billions)

GDP (PPP) per Capita Current international dollar

GDP growth rate 2012 (e)

Land Km2

Brazil India China Russia

11,600 3,700 8,400 16,700

2,518 1,843 6,989 1,791

3.0% 6.9% 8.2%

4.0%

8,514,877 3,287,263 9,596,961 17,098,242


303 286 1,312 375

China is the easiest to do business in and Brazil is becoming more competitive in the global context

14

Levels of development and the opportunities vary across the different BRIC countries


Source: Global Intelligence Alliance; MIIT China, TRAI India, Anatel Brazil, Deloitte

Brazil India China Russia

Mobile subscribers Q1, 2012

Teledensity (wireless) Q1, 2012

1.01 billion 919 million 250 million

No. of millionaire households 2011, thousands

Ease of doing business Index (World Bank) 2011, ranking

91 132 126

Global Competitiveness Index (WEO) 2010/11 to 2011/12, ranking

120

227 million

74% 76% 126% 160%

26 53

58

51

27 66

63


China, India and Brazil look good to most industry sectors; Russia has less widespread appeal

15

Healthcare sector is least positive on China, Automotive on India, Energy & Resources on Brazil, and Consumer & Retail on Russia

Top Four Emerging Markets by Industry (2012-2017)


Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry over the next 5 years? (To 2017) N=427.

27% 25% 26% 30% 30% 24% 29% 29% 27% 29%

27% 32% 28% 30% 29%

24% 29% 23% 31% 21%

19% 15% 16% 13% 12%

21% 17%

21% 16%

21%

27% 28% 30% 27% 29% 31% 25% 27% 26% 29%

Brazil Russia India China



Second tier Emerging Markets span the globe, led by Indonesia and South Africa

16

No Middle Eastern countries named amongst top 10 Emerging Markets in the next 5 years after BRIC

Top 10 Emerging Markets after BRICs (2012-2017)


Africa Asia Europe Latin America


•  Half of the 10 non-BRIC Emerging Markets that international companies plan to target in 2012-2017 are in Asia or Latin America.

•  Indonesia is the next upcoming Emerging Market, with over a quarter of companies naming it fifth after the BRICs.

•  South Africa, Vietnam, Mexico and Turkey follow with approximately one fifth of companies including one of them in their top five.

•  Turkey is the only country in Europe to make it into the top 10 Emerging Markets after BRIC.

Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry over the next 5 years (to 2017)? N=427

Rank Country %

5 Indonesia 27.4% 6 South Africa 22.2% 7 Vietnam 20.1% 8 Mexico 18.5% 9 Turkey 17.8% 10 Argentina 10.3% 11 Chile 9.6% 12 Thailand 9.6% 13 Malaysia 8.7% 14 South Korea 8.7%


After Indonesia and South Africa, Turkey and Mexico interest US and European companies most

17

Latin American companies focus more on their own home region; Asian companies favor Vietnam



Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry over the next 5 years (to 2017)? N=395; N=95 (US); N=161 (Europe); N=44 (Latin America); N=95 (Asia).

Top 10 Secondary Emerging Markets by Location of Headquarters (2012-2017)

15% 18% 4%

26%

15% 17%

11%

11% 10%

11%

3%

22% 15% 10%

29%

6% 14% 17%

7%

6% 10% 4%

20%

2%

5% 7% 1%

10%

6% 3% 20% 3%

6% 6%

4%

6%

4% 7%

1%

8%

US HQ European HQ Latin American HQ Asian HQ

Malaysia

South Korea

Chile

Thailand

Argentina

Turkey

Mexico

Vietnam

South Africa

Indonesia


Vietnam stands out for Consumer, Logistics and Resources sectors, Mexico for Healthcare

18

Chemical sector very focused on Indonesia and South Africa, Consumer & Retail on SE Asia



Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry over the next 5 years (TO 2017)? N=427

Top 10 Secondary Emerging Markets by industry (2012-2017)

21% 18% 16% 20% 21% 12% 16% 16%

27% 21%

18% 15%

12%

20% 6%

14% 18% 19%

27%

8%

14% 15%

14%

7% 20%

3%

18% 6%

14%

21%

10% 15% 14%

10% 12%

20%

12%

13%

4%

4%

14% 8%

10% 12% 11%

17%

6% 16%

8%

8%

5% 8%

8% 6% 3% 14% 6% 3%

5%

8%

4% 5% 9% 6%

3%

8% 8%

6%

5%

14%

6% 8% 2% 6%

8%

4% 6%

9%

5% 8%

3% 6% 9% 3% 12% 1% 6% 6%

4% 5% 2% 6% 10%

4% 7% 4% 6% 5% 4%

South Korea Malaysia Thailand Chile Argentina Turkey Mexico Vietnam South Africa Indonesia


Emerging Markets aspirations to 2017


60

70

40

50

20

30

10

70% Gain foothold for long term success in large future market

39% Our customers are there

51% Gain global market share

34% Lack of growth/profit in established markets

25% Diversify risks 24% Tap into short/medium term growth/profit

17% Establish low cost supply base

14% CEO/board directive / Competitors are there

Most companies are investing to establish a presence in future major markets for long term gain

20

Less than one fifth look to Emerging Markets as a low cost supply base

Motivations for investing in Emerging Markets



•  The aim behind global companies’ 2012-2017 emerging markets strategy is to build markets and gain global market share – it is now less about capturing lower production costs (17%).

•  Most companies want to gain a foothold for long term success. Half are looking for greater global market share.

•  Four out of ten have followed their customers to Emerging Markets.

•  A third are being pushed into Emerging Markets by lack of growth or profit in more established markets.

•  A quarter are going into Emerging Markets to diversify risks, and the same number to tap into short to medium term profits and growth. Question: What are the main reasons for investing in Emerging Markets

for your company? N=428.


53%

29%

15%

18%

23%

19%

14%

22%

15%

7%

14%

31%

3%

3%

7%

1%

5%

8%

4%

4%

5%

2012

2014

2017

0%-10% 11%-20% 21%-30% 31%-50% 51%-60% 61%-80% 81%-100%

Half of the companies say at least 30% of global revenues will come from Emerging Markets by 2017

21

One fifth say Emerging Markets will account for 50% of revenues within five years

% Global Revenue from Emerging Markets (2012-2017)



Question: What % of your company's global revenue do you expect to come from Emerging Markets? N=277 (2012), N=268 (2014), N=263 (2017).

Zero revenue from Emerging Markets

(2012-2017)

7%

1%

1%


Technology sector expects the most growth in Emerging Markets, followed by Logistics and Chemical

22

The Resources sector will source the most revenue from Emerging markets; Consumer, Finance and Healthcare the least

Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017


17%

19%

19%

35%

15%

15%

13%

18%

20%

24%

24%

29%

25%

45%

18%

21%

19%

27%

32%

30%

36%

38%

37%

53%

26%

28%

27%

37%

48%

41%

2017 2014 2012

Question: What share of your company's global revenue do you expect to come from Emerging Markets? N=277 (2012), N=268 (2014), N=263 (2017).

% Average Global Revenue from Emerging Markets by Industry (2012-2017)


US companies are slightly behind the curve on tapping into Emerging Markets revenues

23

Smaller companies are expecting a greater share of revenue from Emerging Markets than larger ones

Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017


Question: What share of your company's global revenue do you expect to come from Emerging Markets? N=256 (Total of 2017): N=86(<0.1 bil Euro), N=62 (0.1 bil-<1 bil Euro), N=108 (=/>1 bil Euro). .

% Average Expected Global Revenue from Emerging Markets (2017)

33%

38%

42%

=/> 1bil Euro

0.1 bil - < 1bil Euro

<0.1 bil Euro

By size of annual revenue

34%

36%

37%

38%

US HQ

Latin American HQ

European HQ

Asian HQ

By location of headquarters

Question: What share of your company's global revenue do you expect to come from Emerging Markets? N=245 (Total of 2017): N=63 (US), N=94 (Europe), N=27 (Latin America), N=61 (Asia).


Emerging Markets investment experiences and motivations

TOTAL

(N=425) (N=80) (N=58) (N=49) (N=41) (N=39) (N=38) (N=34) (N=24) (N=20) (N=17)

Distribution / access to customers 35% 41% 36% 22% 37% 49% 37% 15% 21% 50% 29%

Adapting to local culture 28% 25% 34% 37% 24% 26% 11% 29% 17% 25% 24%

Building a strong brand 24% 18% 26% 33% 24% 44% 26% 9% 25% 20% 12%

Local partner(s) 24% 20% 19% 37% 32% 15% 29% 21% 21% 15% 12%

Government relations 23% 13% 21% 33% 32% 13% 24% 32% 21% 5% 24%

Pricing 23% 24% 22% 16% 12% 31% 34% 15% 38% 30% 24%

Localized competitive positioning 22% 21% 28% 20% 2% 10% 32% 18% 38% 35% 35%

Product/service quality 21% 21% 21% 20% 27% 21% 24% 12% 4% 35% 29%

Flexibility as the market develops 20% 19% 22% 18% 17% 15% 8% 21% 25% 10% 18%

Localization of products/services 18% 26% 26% 8% 7% 18% 13% 6% 38% 20% 18%

Finding the right talent 18% 16% 16% 18% 12% 13% 18% 24% 21% 15% 12%

Local business relationships/lobbying 17% 16% 12% 22% 17% 13% 11% 21% 13% 20% 18%

Access to customers is the biggest single Emerging Markets success factor across industries

25


Question: In your industry, what 3 key factors will determine which foreign companies succeed in Emerging Markets to 2017? N=425.

Success Factors for Emerging Markets (2012-2017)

Success Factors

Brand is very important for the Consumer sector; localization least important for the Finance sector

Investment experiences and motivations



TOTAL

(N=425) (N=80) (N=58) (N=49) (N=41) (N=39) (N=38) (N=34) (N=24) (N=20) (N=17)

Bureaucracy and red tape 35% 23% 34% 41% 46% 44% 29% 50% 13% 20% 41%

Corruption / weak rule of law 33% 29% 33% 37% 41% 26% 39% 44% 21% 10% 18%

Competition from local companies 28% 38% 21% 29% 15% 28% 42% 9% 46% 30% 24%

Competition from other foreign companies 26% 33% 21% 31% 12% 13% 24% 18% 54% 20% 29%

Economic volatility 23% 28% 14% 22% 37% 26% 24% 21% 21% 20% 24%

Regulations and taxes 23% 25% 16% 16% 22% 33% 26% 26% 21% 25% 29%

Lack of local market understanding at HQ 21% 25% 19% 18% 32% 18% 18% 12% 21% 25% 12%

Political risk 20% 23% 16% 10% 24% 18% 5% 38% 8% 35% 29%

Poor infrastructure 19% 19% 24% 16% 20% 15% 13% 15% 8% 30% 35%

Lack of reliable market intelligence 18% 14% 29% 16% 17% 15% 21% 12% 13% 15% 29%

Unreliable local partners 17% 14% 17% 24% 20% 18% 18% 9% 21% 0% 18%

26 Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Survey. Respondents were allowed to select more than one.


Question: In your industry, what are the 3 biggest threats to succeeding in Emerging Markets in the next 5 years (TO 2017)? N=431.

Threats in Emerging Markets (2012-2017)

Biggest threat across industries is bureaucracy; competition a concern for Auto and Manufacturing

Threats


Majority of companies stumble in Emerging Markets

27

Most say they would like to have done something differently


Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Survey,

•  Only 9% of the respondents say they did not make any mistakes in their Emerging Markets strategy.

•  91% say they would like to have done something differently in how they planned and executed their Emerging Markets strategy.

•  Some would like to have made greater efforts to adapt to local conditions.

•  Others would have entered Emerging Markets earlier or ensured they had better local market intelligence and due diligence.

Emerging Markets strategy as of 2012

9% Satisfied with strategy

91% Could have done something better

Question: Which one aspect of your Emerging Markets strategy would you change if you could go back in time, and how? (Will change vs. Will not change) N=380


Not adapting more to local conditions and prices is the most widespread mistake

28


Aspects companies would like to have approached differently

Entering too late and having insufficient market intelligence are other common regrets

24% 18%

17% 7% 6%

5% 3% 3%

3% 2% 2%

1%

Adapted better to local market/prices

Entered more quickly

Conducted better intelligence/due diligence

Sought local partners

Expedited/improved decision making process

Built stronger local talent/expertise

Addressed supply chain issues first

Cultivated stronger local relationships (gov't, partners)

Entered more slowly

Chosen different/fewer emerging markets

Dedicated more resources

Entered directly without partner


Question: Which one aspect of your Emerging Markets strategy would you change if you could go back in time, and how? N=380


Emerging Markets intelligence


Availability, accuracy and completeness of intelligence on Emerging Markets is an issue for many

30

60% of companies find decision making is delayed because of lack of information.


Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Survey, N=431.

•  53% say that information on Emerging Markets is not readily available in their organizations.

•  75% doubt the accuracy and completeness of the information.

•  While 50% say that decision making in their organizations is efficient in general, 48% say that decisions on Emerging Markets are delayed due to lack of information.


Big gap between the need for accurate Emerging Markets intelligence and its availability

31

Importance and availability of information on Emerging Markets

86% say that accurate market intelligence is critical but only 24% say it is always available



42%

6%

3%

6%

44%

18%

10%

22%

9%

23%

12%

24%

4%

38%

40%

34%

1%

15%

35%

14%

Accurate market sizing and growth estimates are critical for our Emerging Markets strategy

Information on Emerging Markets is always readily available in our organization

Inaccurate or incomplete information about Emerging Markets is never a problem

Large volumes or overflow of information about Emerging Markets is never a problem

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree or disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree


8%

3%

6%

39%

21%

25%

19%

19%

21%

28%

39%

37%

6%

18%

11%

6%

3%

6%

18%

10%

22%

23%

12%

24%

38%

40%

34%

15%

35%

14%

Information on these Markets is always readily available in our organization

Inaccurate or incomplete information about these Markets is never a problem

Large volumes or overflow of information about these Markets is never a problem


Information for Emerging Markets is not as available as for global markets

32

Information on Emerging Markets vs. Global Markets

Availability and accuracy of market intelligence varies between Emerging & Global Markets


Emerging Markets All markets



18%

17%

4%

37%

33%

18%

21%

31%

30%

17%

17%

38%

7%

2%

10%

All executive decisions on Emerging Markets are supported by market intelligence

Executive decision making is very efficient in our Emerging Markets organization

Our decisions are never delayed because we are missing information about Emerging

Markets


Lack of information delays decisions for half the companies operating in Emerging Markets

33

Decision making on Emerging Markets

This is one underlying factor behind strategic mistakes made in Emerging Markets




19%

15%

6%

46%

51%

30%

16%

20%

24%

16%

12%

33%

3%

2%

7%

Decisions are less supported by intelligence than they are in mature markets

34

18%

17%

4%

37%

33%

18%

21%

31%

30%

17%

17%

38%

7%

2%

10%

All executive decisions on these Markets are supported by market intelligence

Executive decision making is very efficient in these Market organization

Our decisions are never delayed because we are missing information about these

Markets


Decision making on Emerging Markets vs. Global Markets


Emerging Markets All markets



Appendix: Survey Respondents

Over 400 large and mid-sized global companies took part in the survey 58% have at least 1,000 employees

35%

23%

16%

10%

16%

< $0.13 bil/0.1 bil Euro

$0.13-1.3 bil/0.1-1 bil Euro

$1.3-$6.5 bil/1–5 bil Euro

$6.5-$13 bil/5-10 bil Euro

> $13 bil/ >10 bil Euro

% of respondents by annual revenue


38%

24%

21%

11%

6%

Europe

North America

Asia

Latin America

Africa & Middle East

% of respondents by location of headquarters

Companies taking part in the survey represented a wide spread of industry sectors

19%

13%

11%

10%

9%

9%

8%

5%

5%

4%

3%

3%

1%

Manufacturing & Industrial

Telecom, Tech & Media

Professional Services

Financial Services

Consumer & Retail

Pharma & Healthcare

Energy, Resources & Envir

Automotive

Chemicals

Logistics & Transportation

Others

Construction & Property Dev't

Private Equity

% of respondents by industry



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