Business Barometer of Vojvodina Economyrav.org.rs/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/BB32-EN-WEB.pdf ·...

25.9

29.4

14.14.1

28.3

38.3

23.5

34.525.7

7.4 9.8

49.7

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55.748.7

44.1

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22.820.4 22.3 19.1

25.7

20.927.8

16.5

17.316.6

41.0 39.7

26.6

58.8

33.135.4

- 5.7

9.6 5.6

5.0 14.8 9.4

-7.3 -9.5

10.7

15.0 15.6

37.3 36.6

39.8

36.0

47.1

27.2

11.510.7

6.7

-1.38.4

-0.5

4.7 2.7

0.36.3

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23.2 23.6

3.6 9.6

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Expectations related to business activities in the next 6 monthsExpectations related to the number of employees in the forthcoming year

Expectations related to business activities with foreign clients in the next 6 monthsExpectations related to selling prices in the next 6 months

Economy of the AP Vojvodina as a whole: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Expectations of future developments

ISSN 2217-6446

ISSUE 32June 2018

Business Barometer of Vojvodina EconomyEvaluation of business activities and expectations of enterprises in the AP Vojvodina Positive expectations regarding future developments of all observed business categories

Business Barometer of Vojvodina Economy

Evaluation of business activities and expectations of enterprises in the AP Vojvodina – June 2018

Publisher: Vojvodina Development Agency

The Department for Strategic Research, Innovation and Economic Development Policy

Authors: Stana PajkovićTijana MirkovićMaja Sokić Heeger

Translation:Vojvodina Development Agency

Design: Igor Orsag

5 Business Barometer of Vojvodina Economy

C O N T E N T

Research goal and methodology 6

Main findings 9

1. The aggregate image of the economy of the AP Vojvodina as a whole 10

2. Manufacturing 12

3. Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles 14

4. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery 16

5. Construction 18

6. Professional, Scientific, Technical Activities and Innovation 20

7. Information and Communication 22

Research goal and methodology

Vojvodina Development Agency has taken over the implementation of an instrument called Business Barometer of Vojvodina Economy which was created in 2010 by The Centre for Strategic Economic Studies “Vojvodina—CESS” in cooperation with the Vienna Insti-tute for International Economic Studies (WIIW). The initial database of enterprises used to form the sample has been provided by the Chamber of Commerce of Vojvodina. This in-strument enables collecting reliable information on how enterprises estimate the current market situation and future market trends and opportunities.

Companies are emailed a short, closed-ended questionnaire about their opinion on the current business performance, as well as on developments in trade with foreign cli-ents, employment and the selling prices of their products and services. Further questions are asked about expectations regarding future developments in these areas during next six months or a year.

The questionnaire offers three possible responses: the situation is good, remains un-changed or bad, in other words, it is expected to improve, there will be no changes or a decline is expected. These responses are then recorded in the Business Barometer as “–1” if they are negative, “0” if they are neutral and “1” if positive.

The received responses are used solely for statistical analysis that results in a number of Business Barometer coefficients which serve as a basis for creating an image of the business climate in individual sectors and in the economy of the AP Vojvodina as a whole.

When individual sectors are observed, responses are weighed based on the number of employees in the surveyed enterprises. In this way, responses from large enterprises have stronger impact on the final values of Business Barometer coefficients. When calculating the values of Business Barometer coefficients at an aggregate level, the impact of each sector is proportional in relation to its share in the creation of the GVA of enterprises in the AP Vojvodina. The aforementioned methods help to avoid overestimation of the impact of the sectors with a high number of employees, and at the same time, with a small share in the creation of the added value in the economy.

Business Barometer coefficient values can fluctuate in the range from “–100” (in the case of all negative responses) to “+100” (in the case of exclusively positive responses). A zero value means that positive responses have the same significance as the negative ones.

The thirty second round of Business Barometer, Evaluation of Business Climate in Vojvodina, started in June 2018, by sending out electronic questionnaires to e-mail ad-dresses of 1,300 enterprises operating in the AP Vojvodina. By the end of June 2018, Vo-jvodina Development Agency received 175 filled out questionnaires. The largest number of responses came from enterprises doing business in Manufacturing sector (51.4%). The surveyed enterprises in this sector employ 6,287 people, which accounts for 4.8% of the total number of employees in Manufacturing sector in the AP Vojvodina according to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (results for 20171). A significant number of completed questionnaires came from the following sectors: Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (17.7%) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery (9.7%). The respondents from the sector Wholesale and Retail, Repair of Motor Vehicles

1 Registered employment in the Republic of Serbia, 2017, legal entities, Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.

6


and Motorcycles employ 2,232 people which accounts for 2.6% of the total number em-ployees in this sector in the AP Vojvodina. The respondents from the sector of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery employ 2,894 people which accounts for 15.4% of the total number of employees in this sector in the AP Vojvodina. Chart 1 Distribution of received responses by sectors, %

Chart 2 represents the distribution of received responses according to the size of en-terprises. The sector of small and medium enterprises participated in 68.6% of total num-ber of responses. Chart 2 Distribution of received responses according to the size of enterprises, %

Manufacturing (51.4)

Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Motor

Vehicles and Motorcycles (17.7)

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery (9.7)

Construction (6.9)

Professional, Scientific, Technical Activities and Innovation (4.6)

Information and Communication (2.9)

Other sectors (6.9)


Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of

Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (14.8)


Construction (4.5)



Other sectors (19.2)

Small enterprises (40.6)

Medium enterprises (28.0)

Micro enterprises (24.0)

Large enterprises (7.4)

51.4

17.7

9.7

6.9

4.62.9

6.9

47.1

14.8

9.0

4.5

2.33.1

19.2

40.6

28.0

24.0

7.4





Construction (6.9)



Other sectors (6.9)





Construction (4.5)








51.4

17.7

9.7

6.9

4.62.9

6.9

47.1

14.8

9.0

4.5

2.33.1

19.2

40.6

28.0

24.0

7.4

Chart 3 represents the share of sectors in the creation of the GVA of enterprises accord-ing to the data for 2016.Chart 3 The share of sectors in the creation of the GVA of enterprises in the AP Vojvodina in 2016, %

Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Enterprises in the Republic of Serbia, by size, 2016

8





Construction (6.9)



Other sectors (6.9)





Construction (4.5)








51.4

17.7

9.7

6.9

4.62.9

6.9

47.1

14.8

9.0

4.5

2.33.1

19.2

40.6

28.0

24.0

7.4


Main findings

Business climate in the AP Vojvodina, results of RAV Business Barometer, June 2018:Favourable climate in sectors Manufacturing, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of

Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles, Construction and Information and Communication; unfa-vourable climate in sectors Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery and Professional, Scientific, Technical Activities and Innovation.

In June 2018, Vojvodina Development Agency conducted the thirty second survey of business climate in the AP Vojvodina. Opinions of respondents on the current business in June 2018 were compared to their expectations of different aspects of their business operations expressed in the December 2017 survey2.

From an analysis of received responses, it can be concluded that the most positive expectations of enterprises are aimed at overall business performance in the following six months. When individual sectors are observed, a positive current business climate and expectations of future business are observed in the following: Manufacturing, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles, Construction and Information and Communication. Furthermore, the most favourable current business climate is record-ed in the sector Construction (BBV coefficient 73.4), while the most optimistic evaluation over the next six-month business activities period is recorded in the sector Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (BBV coefficient 86.0). Negative markings of overall business performance refer to sectors Agriculture, Forestry and Fish-ery (BBV coefficient -27.3) and Professional, Scientific, Technical Activities and Innovation (BBV coefficient -6.9).

Observed at the aggregate level, the surveyed enterprises in the AP Vojvodina expect positive business results in the next six-month period, based on positive expectations in regards to their cooperation with foreign clients in the next six-month period and increase in the number of employees in their enterprises in the following year. Furthermore, re-spondents expect an increase in selling prices (BBV coefficient 9.6) in the next six-month period.

The following chapters present detailed explanations of the obtained results of the thirty second Business Barometer of Vojvodina for the economy as a whole, as well as for the individual sectors.

2 The respondents expressed their expectations for the following six-month period in the December survey and, therefore, their evaluations of business from June 2018 were compared with the expectations from December 2017. There is an exception with regard to matters related to the number of employees, during a period of one year which is the main reason why there is a comparison line drawn between situation in June 2018 and expectations from June 2017.

10

1. The aggregate image of the economy of the AP Vojvodina

The overall business performance has been positively evaluated, with BBV coefficient 20.6. However, if the current evaluation is compared with the expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 55.7), it can be observed that they have not been fully met, i.e., the realized business activity is below the expected level.

Positive evaluation of the cooperation with foreign clients, described by the BBV co-efficient 11.3, contributes to the positive evaluation of the current business. If the given evaluation is compared with the respondents’ expectations from six months ago (BBV coefficient 58.8), it is revealed that the realized cooperation with foreign clients is lower than expected.

A mild increase in the selling prices of products and services (BBV coefficient 3.5) con-tributes to the positive evaluation of the current business climate in the AP Vojvodina. If the given evaluation is compared with the expectations from December 2017 (BBV coeffi-cient 23.6), it is revealed that the anticipated increase of selling prices has not been fully realized.

The only category of Business Barometer survey which covers a time frame of one year, the number of employed persons, has also been marked positively with BBV coefficient 33.6 which indicates that the number of the employed persons in the respondents’ com-panies had gone up in the previous year. If the current evaluation is compared with the last years’ evaluation (BBV coefficient 36.6), it is revealed that the expectations within this category have fully been met.

* The change in Business Barometer coefficients in comparison to evaluations of the current situation from March 2018** The change in Business Barometer coefficients in comparison to expectations from March 2018







BUSINESS BAROMETER COEFFICIENT FOR CURRENT BUSINESS EVALUATION *

BUSINESS BAROMETER COEFFICIENT FOR EVALUATION OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT **













CURRENT BUSINESS

DOING BUSINESS WITH FOREIGN CLIENTS

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Chart 4 Economy of the AP Vojvodina as a whole: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Evaluation of the current business

The respondents’ expectations on the territory of Vojvodina for a following period of six months, i.e. one year are positive, with the most positive expectations for the overall business (BBV coefficient 44.1). Favorable expectations in the volume of cooperation with the foreign clients (BBV coefficient 35.4) and the change of selling prices (BBV coefficient 9.6) in the next six months, as well as positive expectations in the number of employees in the next year (BBV coefficient 27.2) will contribute to the aforementioned assessment. Chart 5 Economy of the AP Vojvodina as a whole: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Expectations of future developments25.9

29.4

14.14.1

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38.3

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34.525.7

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22.820.4 22.3 19.1

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33.135.4

- 5.7

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37.229.8

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24.220.1

11.314.5

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-1.9

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5.6 5.94.9

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42.333.6

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Current business activitiesNumber of employees within last year

Business activities with foreign clients in the last 6 monthsSelling prices of products / services in the last 6 months



25.9

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12

2. Manufacturing

The surveyed entrepreneurs from Manufacturing sector evaluated their current busi-ness with the positive BBV coefficient of 23.3. If the current result is compared with the respondents’ expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 68.3), it is revealed that the current volume of business does not fully meet the expectations.

Positive evaluation of cooperation with foreign clients in the past six months (BBV coefficient 14.6) contributes to the positive evaluation of the current volume of business. If the given result is compared with the respondents’ expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 72.3), it is revealed that the realized cooperation with foreign clients, though positive, is not at the expected level.

The survey category related to selling prices has also been evaluated positively, with BBV coefficient of 9.6. However, if compared with the expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 48.1), the current rating does not meet the respondent’s expectations, as is the case with the previous two categories within this sector.

The only category of Business Barometer survey which covers a time frame of one year, the number of employed persons, has been evaluated with the positive BBV coefficient of 52.2. Realized employment growth has not fully met last year’s expectations, given that in June 2017, respondents rated the expectations regarding the change in the number of employees with a highly positive BBV coefficient of 63.8.






















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Chart 6 Manufacturing: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Evaluation of the current business

If the evaluations of the surveyed enterprises from the Manufacturing sector are re-viewed for the next six-month period, i.e. one year, it is revealed that an improvement of all business categories is expected. Based on the obtained coefficients, it is apparent that the respondents expect an improvement in the overall business activity (BBV coefficient 66.1), the rise of cooperation with foreign clients (BBV coefficient 65.8) and the increase in the selling prices (BBV coefficient 14.6) in the next six months as well as the increase in the number of employees in the next year (BBV coefficient 44.8).Chart 7 Manufacturing: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Expectations of future developments

26.8 27.5

50.9

33.3

20.3 24.5

51.7

38.4

35.3

39.047.0

53.8

44.8

48.3

68.863.1

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30.0 17.1 17.9

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44.8 45.7 35.8

14.618.8

-12.4

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-5.3 -11.3

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66.160.7

39.345.8 36.8

27.932.1

36.646.8

44.9 44.6 48.7

64.774.0

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51.7 65.8

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43.0 44.244.8

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26.8 27.5

50.9

33.3

20.3 24.5

51.7

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52.852.8 68.3 48.1

66.160.7

39.345.8 36.8

27.932.1

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44.9 44.6 48.7

64.774.0

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51.7 65.8

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14

3. Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles

The enterprises doing business in the sector Wholesale and Retail, Repairs of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles, evaluated their current business positively with BBV coefficient of 17.8. If the current result is compared with the expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 65.4), it is observed that, although positively assesed, current business vol-ume is not at the expected level.

Positive assessment of the selling prices (BBV coefficient 39.4) contributes to the pos-itive evaluation of the overall business. When the current result is compared to the expec-tations of respondents from six months ago (the BBV coefficient 1.0), it is observed that the realized increase in the selling prices has exceeded respondents’ expectations, i.e., the current situation is more favourable than expected.

The research category related to cooperation with foreign clients has been marked positively with BBV coefficient of 33.2. Comparing these findings with the respondents’ expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 6.5), it is revealed that the realized business volume with foreign clients has exceeded the expectations from six months ago.

The only category of Business Barometer survey which covers a time frame of one year, the number of employed persons, has been evaluated positively with BBV coefficient 45.3. If the given result is compared with the respondents’ expectations from June 2017 (BBV coefficient 69.0), it can be concluded that, although positively assessed, realized employ-ment growth is not at the expected level.






















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Chart 8 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Evaluation of the current business

When the respondents’ expectations from the sector Wholesale and Retail, Repairs of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles are observed for the following period of six months, i.e., one year, it is revealed that respondents positively evaluate all categories. The highest rating is given to the research category related to the overall business in the following six month period (BBV coefficient 86.0). The aforementioned overall business evaluation is influenced by the positive expectation in the cooperation activity with the foreign clients (BBV coefficient 37.8) and selling prices (BBV coefficient 9.5) in the following six months, as well as by the positive expectations in the number of employees for the following year (BBV coefficient 43.5).Chart 9 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Expectations of future developments

28.138.4

89.6

36.5

-23.0

36.6

1.0 3.00.6 1.4

0.1

74.766.7 66.7

-53.8

5.9 17.82.2

-0.3

1.4

-16.7-24.9

-14.4 -21.3 -17.3

0.1 0.80.6

-2.0 -2.2 -1.9

1.5

5.1

33.2

66.8

-44.6

2.0

44.8 40.5

27.8

49.2 49.7 51.458.8 54.0

67.0 66.3 63.2

66.4

62.6 45.3

0.9-0.8

7.7

-15.6

39.6

43.0

-0.6 -0.1

1.3

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73.9 70.0 70.5

64.7

64.3

39.4

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20

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1.8 10.8

-4.7

8.6

30.9

98.0

21.6

23.426.0

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1.48.5

31.3

6.7

65.4

6.7

86.0

2.9

0.0

0.0

53.0

26.0

51.1

22.8 23.1

0.8 0.50.1 3.6 5.5 3.3 6.5

6.637.8

-65.7

11.35.4

1.0

39.6

29.9

-22.7 -19.7

51.459.6 54.3

80.569.0

70.864.6 66.5

43.5

0.5

11.0 5.9

1.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.4-0.5

-0.3

72.5 64.8

65.3

1.0 -0.1

9.5

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20

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60

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100

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28.138.4

89.6

36.5

-23.0

36.6

1.0 3.00.6 1.4

0.1

74.766.7 66.7

-53.8

5.9 17.82.2

-0.3

1.4

-16.7-24.9

-14.4 -21.3 -17.3

0.1 0.80.6

-2.0 -2.2 -1.9

1.5

5.1

33.2

66.8

-44.6

2.0

44.8 40.5

27.8

49.2 49.7 51.458.8 54.0

67.0 66.3 63.2

66.4

62.6 45.3

0.9-0.8

7.7

-15.6

39.6

43.0

-0.6 -0.1

1.3

-0.8 -0.3

73.9 70.0 70.5

64.7

64.3

39.4

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20

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100

1.8 10.8

-4.7

8.6

30.9

98.0

21.6

23.426.0

-0.3

1.48.5

31.3

6.7

65.4

6.7

86.0

2.9

0.0

0.0

53.0

26.0

51.1

22.8 23.1

0.8 0.50.1 3.6 5.5 3.3 6.5

6.637.8

-65.7

11.35.4

1.0

39.6

29.9

-22.7 -19.7

51.459.6 54.3

80.569.0

70.864.6 66.5

43.5

0.5

11.0 5.9

1.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.4-0.5

-0.3

72.5 64.8

65.3

1.0 -0.1

9.5

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-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

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JUN2017

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16

4. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery

The surveyed entrepreneurs from the sector Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery as-sessed their current business activity as unfavourable with BBV coefficient -27.3. If the above evaluation is compared with the positive predictive values from six months ago (BBV coefficient 49.8), it is revealed that the expectations have not been met.

Negative evaluation of the selling prices in the past six months has also contributed to the negative evaluation of the overall business which is described by BBV coefficient -41.3. If the above evaluation is compared with the respondents’ expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 22.8), it is evident that the expectations have not been met.

The last category of the survey which covers a period of six months, cooperation with foreign clients, has been described by the positive BBV coefficient of 17.1. However, if the given rating is compared with the respondents’ expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 68.8), it is apparent that the realized volume of cooperation with the foreign clients is not at the expected level.

The only category of Business Barometer which covers a time frame of one year, the number of employed persons, is evaluated with the highly positive BBV coefficient 64.7. If the abovementioned rating is compared with the respondents’ expectations from June 2017 (BBV coefficient -14.3), it is revealed that the current employment situation in this sector exceeds the expectations from last year.






















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Chart 10 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Evaluation of the current business

Positive expectations are forecasted for the period of six months in the sector Agri-culture, Forestry and Fishery, with the highest rating given to the overall business activity (BBV coefficient 22.7). Positive results from cooperation with foreign clients (BBV coeffi-cient 22.1) and selling prices (BBV coefficient 2.0) contribute to the positive expectations of overall business. The only surveyed category for the period of one year, the number of employed persons, is at the same time the only category with negative expectations, evaluated by BBV coefficient -12.8. Chart 11 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Expectations of future developments

25.838.6

-15.4

-60.2

77.9 85.7

30.430.1 31.5

54.7

14.4

46.138.5

-13.5

49.8 46.6

22.7

19.4 12.6 0.0 0.0

28.6

81.4

31.3

19.0 29.4 38.2

20.0

13.2

70.4

0.0

68.8

10.5 22.1

-9.3 0.0

-20.9

-2.0

21.92.0

-42.8-52.3

-34.5-27.1

17.4

-32.8-14.3

-13.8

30.1 13.6

-12.8

80.6

23.5

44.0

2.00.0

35.2

10.714.3

74.6

40.4 18.435.6 30.2

-8.0

22.8 6.0 2.0

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-17.5-13.4

-8.8

76.9 56.1

82.7 74.4

51.3

77.3

51.1

27.443.8 47.7 39.8

7.6

43.0

-27.3-1.2

36.1

-5.5 7.6

0.0

3.30.0 3.5

25.6 48.4

5.013.2 8.3 36.4

6.3 -2.0 17.1

53.8

-10.8

-53.8

-2.8

12.2

-0.1

-44.4-28.9

-38.7

22.920.3

-9.81.3

-3.4

35.5

-7.4

64.7

-79.4

3.6

-17.6

81.5

-14.0

0.7

59.7

-6.7 1.2-8.8 -1.8

5.15.4

-8.0-10.2

-24.3 -41.3

-100-80-60-40-20

020406080

100

SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

SEP2017

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MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

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25.838.6

-15.4

-60.2

77.9 85.7

30.430.1 31.5

54.7

14.4

46.138.5

-13.5

49.8 46.6

22.7

19.4 12.6 0.0 0.0

28.6

81.4

31.3

19.0 29.4 38.2

20.0

13.2

70.4

0.0

68.8

10.5 22.1

-9.3 0.0

-20.9

-2.0

21.92.0

-42.8-52.3

-34.5-27.1

17.4

-32.8-14.3

-13.8

30.1 13.6

-12.8

80.6

23.5

44.0

2.00.0

35.2

10.714.3

74.6

40.4 18.435.6 30.2

-8.0

22.8 6.0 2.0

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-17.5-13.4

-8.8

76.9 56.1

82.7 74.4

51.3

77.3

51.1

27.443.8 47.7 39.8

7.6

43.0

-27.3-1.2

36.1

-5.5 7.6

0.0

3.30.0 3.5

25.6 48.4

5.013.2 8.3 36.4

6.3 -2.0 17.1

53.8

-10.8

-53.8

-2.8

12.2

-0.1

-44.4-28.9

-38.7

22.920.3

-9.81.3

-3.4

35.5

-7.4

64.7

-79.4

3.6

-17.6

81.5

-14.0

0.7

59.7

-6.7 1.2-8.8 -1.8

5.15.4

-8.0-10.2

-24.3 -41.3

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SEP2015

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MAR 2017

JUN2017

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MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

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18

5. Construction

The surveyed enterprises from the Construction sector evaluated their current busi-ness with a highly positive BBV coefficient of 73.4. If the given evaluation is compared with the expectation coefficient from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 59.1) it is revealed that the satisfaction with business in this sector is at the higher level than expected.

Selling prices of products and services of the surveyed enterprises have been evaluat-ed by the positive BBV coefficient 15.1, which indicates the rise in the selling prices in the last six months. If the given rating is compared with the respondents’ expectation from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 0.6), it is revealed that the realized increase in the selling prices is higher than expected.

Cooperation with the foreign clients has been evaluated by BBV coefficient 0.0, which indicates that the situation in cooperation with foreign clients has been unchanged com-pared with the evaluation from December 2017. In December 2017, respondents had neg-atively evaluated cooperation with foreign clients with BBV coefficient -32.2. The given result is not in accordance with the respondents’ expectations from December 2017, when they expected the rise in the business activity with foreign clients (BBV coefficient 34.2).

Business Barometer category which surveys the number of employed persons has been marked with the negative BBV coefficient -7.0, which indicates a decrease in the number of employees in the surveyed enterprises during a period of one year. If the cur-rent evaluation is compared with the respondents’ expectations from June 2017 (BBV co-efficient 45.8), it is revealed that the expected growth in the number of employed persons in the surveyed enterprises has not been realised.






















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Chart 12 Construction: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Evaluation of the current business

In the following six-month, i.e. one-year period, the surveyed enterprises from the Construction sector evaluate all categories with the positive BBV coefficient. The respon-dents expect the growth of the overall business in the next six months (BBV coefficient 39.1), increase in the cooperation with foreign clients (BBV coefficient 63.8) as well as the increase in the selling prices (BBV coefficient 27.2). Positive expectations with regard to the increase in the number of employees in the following year (BBV coefficient 44.7) will contribute to the overall business climate of this sector. Chart 13 Construction: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Expectations of future developments

58.6

33.926.4

36.352.5

41.4

30.1

-12.9

13.7

51.9

-3.6

24.5

-7.8

23.0

59.169.4

39.1

56.4

24.31.2

34.431.2

4.3

38.1

9.06.6 5.7

8.6

-22.5

53.6 55.4

34.2 13.4

63.8

-60.3

-36.7 -31.6

-75.6

-20.0

-18.25.5

12.99.6

-1.6 -2.3

66.5

45.819.7

38.050.7

44.7

-0.9 -0.1 1.7 -2.5 -5.1

-32.4

-12.4-3.8 -4.6

8.82.3

0.0

-21.3

6.60.6

-6.0

27.2

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-65.7

-30.7-26.8

-43.7-25.2

14.010.4

8.4

11.627.1 38.8

13.1 33.0 8.4

33.714.9

73.4

-43.4

0.0

20.334.4

-4.7

34.021.4

-10.6

4.621.3

7.7

-22.5

4.6

-21.6

-32.2

-13.40.0

-54.7-36.0

-4.0

-1.8

-28.6-28.4

13.5

-26.1

19.5

18.6

-1.7

6.0 0.2 9.631.0

-52.2

-7.0-26.5

-36.5

-0.7

-4.3 -6.8 -5.3-10.9

-10.4-11.8 -19.5

3.2

-24.4

-49.7

-22.3

-3.0

-24.6

15.1

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

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JUN 2018

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58.6

33.926.4

36.352.5

41.4

30.1

-12.9

13.7

51.9

-3.6

24.5

-7.8

23.0

59.169.4

39.1

56.4

24.31.2

34.431.2

4.3

38.1

9.06.6 5.7

8.6

-22.5

53.6 55.4

34.2 13.4

63.8

-60.3

-36.7 -31.6

-75.6

-20.0

-18.25.5

12.99.6

-1.6 -2.3

66.5

45.819.7

38.050.7

44.7

-0.9 -0.1 1.7 -2.5 -5.1

-32.4

-12.4-3.8 -4.6

8.82.3

0.0

-21.3

6.60.6

-6.0

27.2

-100

-80

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0

20

40

60

80

-65.7

-30.7-26.8

-43.7-25.2

14.010.4

8.4

11.627.1 38.8

13.1 33.0 8.4

33.714.9

73.4

-43.4

0.0

20.334.4

-4.7

34.021.4

-10.6

4.621.3

7.7

-22.5

4.6

-21.6

-32.2

-13.40.0

-54.7-36.0

-4.0

-1.8

-28.6-28.4

13.5

-26.1

19.5

18.6

-1.7

6.0 0.2 9.631.0

-52.2

-7.0-26.5

-36.5

-0.7

-4.3 -6.8 -5.3-10.9

-10.4-11.8 -19.5

3.2

-24.4

-49.7

-22.3

-3.0

-24.6

15.1

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20

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20

6. Professional, Scientific, Technical Activities and Innovation

The respondents from the sector Professional, Scientific, Technical Activities and Inno-vation evaluated their current business with the negative BBV coefficient -6.9. Comparing the given result with the expectations from December 2017 described by BBV coefficient -9.1, it is revealed that the current situation is in full accordance with the expectations.

Cooperation with foreign clients has been described by BBV coefficient 0.0, implying that the situation has not been changed in the past six months. In December 2017, the respondents have positively evaluated cooperation with foreign clients (BBV coefficient 31.9). Comparing the given results with the expectations from six months ago (BBV coeffi-cient 44.7), it is evident that the business volume of cooperation with foreign clients is not entirely at the expected level.

Selling prices of products and services have been evaluated with the negative BBV co-efficient of -31.3 which indicates the respondents’ conclusion that the selling prices have dropped. If such rating is compared with the expectations from December 2017 described by BBV coefficient -24.7, it is evident that the respondents’ expectations have been ful-filled.

The highest mark in this sector is given to the research category which covers a period of one year and refers to the number of employed persons (BBV coefficient 14.4). If the given mark is compared with the respondents’ expectation from June 2017 (BBV coeffi-cient 2.8), it is revealed that the realized rise in the number of employees in respondents’ enterprises has exceeded the expectations.






















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Chart 14 Professional, Scientific, Technical Activities and Innovation: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Evaluation of the current business

The forecast of the surveyed enterprises from the sector Professional, Scientific, Tech-nical Activities and Innovation in the next six months would include an increase in the volume of overall business (BBV coefficient 44.4) as well as an increase in the volume of cooperation with foreign clients (BBV coefficient 14.4). The respondents expect the fall in the selling prices of products and services (BBV coefficient -27.5) in the next six months. Likewise, the respondents forecast a decrease in the number of employees in their enter-prises (BBV coefficient -6.9) for the following period of one year. Chart 15 Professional, Scientific, Technical Activities and Innovation: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Expectations of future developments

7.1

0.0

-86.4

15.6

47.9

68.8

34.937.3

24.9

67.9

32.0

20.7 20.7

53.3

-9.1

48.5

44.4

0.0

11.3

1.9

20.843.7

5.518.9

3.2 14.314.6

31.1

5.1 2.8

54.7

44.744.7

14.4

0.0

11.3

-88.7

49.0

38.7

-7.30.0

-10.8

13.7 14.0

-8.5

50.7

2.8

8.0 -2.2

44.3

-6.9

0.0

11.3

0.0 0.0 2.8 -0.57.5

47.6

0.9 6.3

3.3 18.4

12.937.3

-24.7

15.3

-27.5

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-7.1

-11.3

0.8

46.9

77.5

-1.4

38.754.1

78.268.4

34.712.9 15.7

100.0

-20.3 -19.1-6.9

-7.1

-22.6-0.6

11.5

43.7

-8.7 -4.7 0.0

0.012.5

0.0

-2.30.0

46.731.9

3.10.0

-76.2

-33.9

-96.3

55.2

24.6

8.3 31.1

-46.5

-2.2 0.4

32.5

0.513.4

0.0

18.817.6

14.4-7.1

-22.6

0.8

-35.4 -38.0-13.3

17.0 0.0

-10.5 0.0-29.5

0.0 0.0 0.0

-30.3 -29.4 -31.3

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020406080

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SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

SEP2017

DEC2017

MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

DEC2014

JUN2015

MAR2015

MAR2016

JUN2016

SEP2016

DEC2016

SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

SEP2017

DEC2017

MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

DEC2014

JUN2015

MAR2015

MAR2016

JUN2016

SEP2016

DEC2016





7.1

0.0

-86.4

15.6

47.9

68.8

34.937.3

24.9

67.9

32.0

20.7 20.7

53.3

-9.1

48.5

44.4

0.0

11.3

1.9

20.843.7

5.518.9

3.2 14.314.6

31.1

5.1 2.8

54.7

44.744.7

14.4

0.0

11.3

-88.7

49.0

38.7

-7.30.0

-10.8

13.7 14.0

-8.5

50.7

2.8

8.0 -2.2

44.3

-6.9

0.0

11.3

0.0 0.0 2.8 -0.57.5

47.6

0.9 6.3

3.3 18.4

12.937.3

-24.7

15.3

-27.5

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-7.1

-11.3

0.8

46.9

77.5

-1.4

38.754.1

78.268.4

34.712.9 15.7

100.0

-20.3 -19.1-6.9

-7.1

-22.6-0.6

11.5

43.7

-8.7 -4.7 0.0

0.012.5

0.0

-2.30.0

46.731.9

3.10.0

-76.2

-33.9

-96.3

55.2

24.6

8.3 31.1

-46.5

-2.2 0.4

32.5

0.513.4

0.0

18.817.6

14.4-7.1

-22.6

0.8

-35.4 -38.0-13.3

17.0 0.0

-10.5 0.0-29.5

0.0 0.0 0.0

-30.3 -29.4 -31.3

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SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

SEP2017

DEC2017

MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

DEC2014

JUN2015

MAR2015

MAR2016

JUN2016

SEP2016

DEC2016

SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

SEP2017

DEC2017

MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

DEC2014

JUN2015

MAR2015

MAR2016

JUN2016

SEP2016

DEC2016





22

7. Information and Communication

The surveyed enterprises from the sector Information and Communication have evalu-ated their current business positively (BBV coefficient 10.7). If the given evaluation of the current situation is compared with the respondents’ expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 86.0), it is revealed that the respondents from this sector had expected a more favourable business climate.

Positive cooperation with foreign clients for the most part contributes to the positive rating of the overall business (BBV coefficient 41.7). If the given evaluation is compared with the expectations from December 2017 (BBV coefficient 74.4), it is revealed that the realized volume of cooperation with foreign clients is not at the expected level.

The survey category related to the selling prices of products and services has been described by the negative BBV coefficient of -42.3, which indicates the drop in the selling prices. If such result is compared with the expectations from six months ago, which have been described by BBV coefficient of -0.9, it can be revealed that the fall in selling prices of products and services is greater than expected.

Positive rating of the category related to the number of employed persons in respon-dents’ enterprises during a period of one year (BBV coefficient 13.1) contributes to the positive evaluation of business climate, which indicates the rise in the number of em-ployed persons in the respondents’ enterprises. If the given mark is compared with the respondents’ expectations from June 2017 (BBV coefficient 88.6), it is revealed that that the realized increase in the number of the employed persons is lower than expected.






















CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES

CURRENT BUSINESS


NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES

SELLING PRICES


Chart 16 Information and Communication: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Evaluation of the current business

The respondents’ forecast from the sector Information and Communication for the pe-riod of six months, i.e., one year, reveals that all of the categories have been described by the positive BBV coefficient. Based on the given coefficients, it is revealed that the respondents expect the rise in the volume of overall business in the next six months (BBV coefficient 47.0), which will be contributed by the increase in the volume of cooperation with the foreign clients (BBV coefficient 46.4). The respondents expect an increase in the selling prices of products and services (BBV coefficient 42.6) in the next six months. The forecasted increase in the number of employed persons in respondents’ enterprises for a period of one year (BBV coefficient 57.7) will for the most part contribute to the positive expectations of the business climate in this sector.Chart 17 Information and Communication: Overview of the quarterly Business Barometer coefficients – Expectations of future developments

23.7

93.396.8

86.8

97.6 94.8

52.5

81.290.1

46.3

79.3

97.4 88.686.0

66.9 47.0

3.8

82.6

73.7

86.090.7 83.3

51.2

75.781.3

45.1 46.7

90.888.6 74.4 83.7

46.4

69.9

56.9

90.8

87.072.9 82.4 53.5

73.6 75.965.9 62.0 82.9

88.6

72.1

84.4

57.7

-17.7

1.5

96.8

0.0

77.6

0.0

34.0

-1.0

8.8

-5.1

22.7

0.0 0.0 -0.9

21.4

42.6

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

64.5

95.1

64.5

94.0 86.9 73.5 85.275.5

55.1 53.8

53.3

6.6

97.5

79.1 79.0

10.7

-21.5

81.5

56.9

59.1

91.1

68.6

52.1 61.4

66.755.7

6.7

78.9

97.5

0.0

79.8

41.761.3

94.9 98.4

-1.0

77.663.7

89.576.0 73.5

63.5

14.7

88.2

88.663.3

82.9

13.1

43.0

-13.1

32.3

-15.3-2.4

14.7

-2.9

11.2

-0.8-10.0 -10.7

0.0 0.0

3.724.5

-42.3

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

DEC2017

MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

DEC2014

JUN2015

MAR2015

MAR2016

JUN2016

SEP2016

DEC2016

SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

DEC2017

MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

DEC2014

JUN2015

MAR2015

MAR2016

JUN2016

SEP2016

DEC2016





23.7

93.396.8

86.8

97.6 94.8

52.5

81.290.1

46.3

79.3

97.4 88.686.0

66.9 47.0

3.8

82.6

73.7

86.090.7 83.3

51.2

75.781.3

45.1 46.7

90.888.6 74.4 83.7

46.4

69.9

56.9

90.8

87.072.9 82.4 53.5

73.6 75.965.9 62.0 82.9

88.6

72.1

84.4

57.7

-17.7

1.5

96.8

0.0

77.6

0.0

34.0

-1.0

8.8

-5.1

22.7

0.0 0.0 -0.9

21.4

42.6

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

64.5

95.1

64.5

94.0 86.9 73.5 85.275.5

55.1 53.8

53.3

6.6

97.5

79.1 79.0

10.7

-21.5

81.5

56.9

59.1

91.1

68.6

52.1 61.4

66.755.7

6.7

78.9

97.5

0.0

79.8

41.761.3

94.9 98.4

-1.0

77.663.7

89.576.0 73.5

63.5

14.7

88.2

88.663.3

82.9

13.1

43.0

-13.1

32.3

-15.3-2.4

14.7

-2.9

11.2

-0.8-10.0 -10.7

0.0 0.0

3.724.5

-42.3

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

DEC2017

MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

DEC2014

JUN2015

MAR2015

MAR2016

JUN2016

SEP2016

DEC2016

SEP2015

DEC2015

MAR 2017

JUN2017

DEC2017

MAR 2018

JUN 2014

JUN 2018

SEP 2014

DEC2014

JUN2015

MAR2015

MAR2016

JUN2016

SEP2016

DEC2016





Vojvodina Development Agency, Novi Sad

Stražilovska 2,21000 Novi Sad

Telephone:+381 021 472 32 40+381 021 472 32 45

E-mail: [email protected]

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