Bushfire Persistence & Why Resilience Matters

Lew Short, Principal Emergency Management & Resilience

“The world has entered the era of ‘mega crisis’

or catastrophic emergencies’ whose force

and magnitude defy even the best laid plans

and the most robust response systems”

Professor Paul ‘t Hart

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Potential:• Loss of radio & telco towers• Loss of situational awareness

Capacity of community to receive and act on triggers

Out of Scale Events• Big events expose the vulnerability of

government• Wicked problems and leaps of faith• The system will break• Blue Mountains

197 house lossesNo deaths

173

374

DeathsBlack Saturday firesAssociated heatwave

What level of risk is tolerated?

Sydney Basin drained of fire fighting resources and sent to the Mountains

• What if fires had been burning in northern or southern Sydney OR started in these places when the resources were away?

Winmalee http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-26/nswfire-warnings-disaster-relief-winmalee-meeting-bushfires/5047638

• “Victims of the October 2013 Springwood, Winmalee and Yellow Rock bushfires are launching a class action against power company Endeavour Energy”

~$200m

• In 2012 alone, the total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia is estimated to have exceeded $6 billion.

• These costs are expected to double by 2030 and to rise to an average of $23 billion per year by 2050Forecast of total economic cost of natural disasters

2011-2050

> 3.5% p.a.

• Brittle & costly assets• > population growth, • concentrated

infrastructure density, and

• internal migration to vulnerable regions

• > high consequence events

• working in a swift, compassionate and pragmatic way to help communities recover from devastation and to learn, innovate and adapt in the aftermath

• Triage• education systems • well-coordinated

response• Shared

responsibility

• Emergency Planning arrangements

• Insurance• Mitigation works • Warning systems• Inform people about

how to assess risks and reduce their exposure

• risk-based land management and planning arrangements

• building site location & purpose built design

• Critical infrastructure assessment and mitigation works

Prevention Preparedness

RecoveryResponse

All Hazards, All Agencies

Our Options• An integrated approach to “all hazards” • Risk management: natural hazard identification,

quantification, assessment, constraint mapping and prioritisation of works

• Resilience: enhancing the stability of existing approaches (mitigation, hardening of existing assets, warning systems) and implementing works

• Transition: incorporating incremental change into the maintenance of existing regimens

• Transformational change: the application of new approaches to risk reduction & problem solving

Constantly Changing Environment

10/50 vegetation managementowners in bush fire prone areas to remove trees within 10m of a home and vegetation within 50m of a home without approval

URA bushfire Prone Land MappingThe Commissioner of the RFS can now amend bushfire prone land maps if an application shows that the bushfire risk on that land has changed.

Streamlined SubdivisionAssessing bushfire planning at the subdivision stage can eliminate the need to do a second assessment of bushfire risk when development application lodged

Transformational

Transition

Transition

Challenge: How to make information accessible• In a way that provokes a

response• Gives greater

understanding of risk• Initiates action and

adaptation• Builds capacity• Enhances resilience

Lew ShortPrincipal, Emergency Management & ResilienceEco Logical Australia

Lews@ecoaus.com.au

Lew Short Lewshort14http://www.slideshare.net/LewShort

Thanks