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RETHINKING ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS: WICKED PROBLEMS & CLUMSY SOLUTIONS

Steve RaynerJames Martin Professor of Science & CivilizationUniversity of Oxford

WHAT DO THE FOLLOWING HAVE IN COMMON?

• Crime

• North Korea

• Poverty

• Cancer

• Drugs

• Terror

• Climate change

WE ARE STILL AT WAR WITH THEM!

• Crime – J Edgar Hoover 1930s

• North Korea – 1950-1953

• Poverty – Harold Wilson 1950s

• Cancer – Richard Nixon 1970

• Drugs – Richard Nixon 1971

• Terror – George Bush 2001

• Climate change – Richard Branson 2008

WICKED PROBLEMS

• Coined by Rittel & Weber (1973) to characterize complex social problems

• Compared public health engineering in late 19th & early 20th centuries with late 20th

century urban planning

• Contrasted puzzle-solving in science with complexities of social policy

• Noted challenges of increasing heterogeneity & value conflicts in modern society

CHARACTERISTICS

• Persistent & insoluble – not really problems?

• Symptoms of deeper problems

• Little room for trial & error learning

• Characterized by contradictory certitudes &

inconclusive evidence

• Proposed solutions create new problems

• Involve entrenched interests

– Coping not solving

– Feasibility not optimality

Wicked - Conflicting Worldviews

Complex - Expert

Judgement

Tame - Consensus

Uncertainty/ignorance

DecisionStakes

High

High

Low

3 KINDS OF PROBLEM

Source: Funtowicz & Ravetz

CHESAPEAKE BAY PROGRAM

MODELS & REALITY

LOCAL & GLOBAL

… the local is not a more limited or narrowly focused apprehension than the global, it is one that rests on an altogether different mode of apprehension – one based on an active perceptual engagement with components of the dwelt-in world, in the practical business of life, rather than on the detached, disinterested observation of a world apart. (Ingold 1993:40-41)

MEDIATED BY TECHNOLOGY

NATURE AS SCIENCE

IN NATURE & APART FROM IT

TAMING WICKED PROBLEMS

• Nancy Roberts proposed 3 simplifying strategies:

– Hierarchical – simplify issues & apply procedures

– Competitive – use expertise to control resources

– Egalitarian – open the problem to stakeholders

TAMING WICKEDNESS THROUGH SCIENCE

• “Science based policy” & “evidence-based policy as attempts to cut through value conflict

• Proliferation of “science assessments” at all levels from IPCC & MEA to technical assessments

• Surfeit of science permits cherry picking

TAMING WICKEDNESS THROUGH MARKETS

• Remove the “dead hand” of government to unleash creativity

• Allow markets to find efficient solutions through wisdom of crowds

• Problems of information asymmetry and uneven market power, etc.

TAMING WICKEDNESS THROUGH PARTICIPATION

• Increasing focus on consultations, planning cells, consensus conferences, citizen juries, citizen advisory boards, constructive technology assessment, etc.

• Assumes social decisions are aggregative (Arrow’s Paradox)

• Issues of representativeness, legitimacy, cost, effectiveness, etc.

TAMING THE PROBLEM OR DIGGING IN DEEPER?

• Solution to failure is to try harder at what is not working

• Each response is a way of disorganizing alternatives – leads to contested knowledge

• Each reflects a coherent world view of nature and society

NATURE & POLITICS

VIEWS OF NATURE

Hierarchical

Perverse/tolerant

Competitive

Benign

Egalitarian

Ephemeral

VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY

Hierarchical

Perverse/tolerant

Egalitarian

Benign

Competitive

Ephemeral

Hierarchical

Procedure

Egalitarian

Participation

Competitive

Performance

MINIMUM SOLUTION SPACE

CLIMATE REDUCTIONISM

MISLEADING ANALOGIES

DAUNTING PROSPECTS

01

23

45

67

-1.6 -1 0 1 1.6

None at all

Extremely high

risk

Very low

Low

Between low

and moderate

Moderate

Between moderate

and high

High

Very liberal

Strong Democrat

Very Conservative

Strong Republican

Liberal

Democrat

Conservative

Republican

Moderate

Independent

Left-right political orientation

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human

health, safety, or prosperity?”

r = - 0.65, p < 0.01

Very liberal

Strong Democrat

Very Conservative

Strong Republican

Liberal

Democrat

Conservative

Republican

Moderate

Independent

Source: Dan Kahan

CLIMATE & POLITICS

01

23

45

67

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

None at all

Extremely high

risk

Very low

Low

Between low

and moderate

Moderate

Between moderate

and high

High

> avg. Left-right

< avg. Left-right

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human

health, safety, or prosperity?”

Science ComprehensionVery low Very high

01

23

45

67

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

01

23

45

67

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

Source: Dan Kahan

CLIMATE & SCIENCE LITERACY

REDFINING THE PROBLEM

CONFRONT THE OBJECT

AND DRAW NIGH OBLIQUELY

TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION

• The Kaya identity is expressed in the form:

F = P * (G / P) * (E / G) * (F / E) = P * g * e * f

where F is global CO2 emissions from human sources, P is global population, G is world GDP and

g = (G/P) is global per-capita GDP, E is global primary energy consumption and e=(E/G) is the

energy intensity of world GDP, and f=(F/E) is the carbon intensity of energy

• Emissions = Population x Wealth x Technology

• Population and wealth restriction are not politically attractive

• 1.5 billion people lack access to reliable energy

• World is urbanising rapidly – limits distributed generation/storage

• RDD&D doesn’t require global intergovernmental agreement

Hierarchical

Energy Security

Collectivist

Human Dignity

Competitive

New Market Opportunities

BROAD APPEAL?

Hartwell Approach –

Climate Pragmatism

DEMOCRACY

Democracy is not about

getting people who think

differently to think the

same thing. It is about

getting people who think

differently to do the

same thing.

MAKING DEMOCRACY WORK

• Robert Putnam (1993) described disparities in institutional performance of 20 regions comprising Northern & Southern Italy

– Public administration

– Economic development

• Explored obvious variables

– Geography

– Wealth/public expenditure

– Education

CIVIC ENGAGEMENT

• Consists of voluntary organizations (sporting, hobbyist, etc)

• Only statistically significant variable

• Accounts for distribution of performance within North & South as well as between them

• Originates with mediaeval urban communes & guilds

• Historically (1860-1920) predicts contemporary economic development & civic community: historical economic development has no effect on contemporary civics

COMPLEX STRATEGY SWITCHING

• Only 2 ways of organizing offers only a

switch or pendulum

• 3 modes is minimum condition for

complex development

• Law of Minimum Requisite Variety

• Strategy switching requires

– Visible alternative models

– Experience with alternatives

ADVANTAGES OF CONTESTATION

Perspective Contested Uncontested

Hierarchical System

maintenance

Complacency &

corruption

Competitive Innovation Monopoly &

extortion

Egalitarian Early warning Factional

squabbling &

paranoia

PLURALISM & PERFORMANCE

• High reliability organizations combine all 3 organizational forms

– Hierarchical

– Competitive

– Egalitarian

CLUMSY SOLUTIONS

• Michael Shapiro (1999) - judicial selection

• Observe law of minimum requisite variety

• All voices heard & responded to

• Are emergent & often informal

• Are “settlements” not permanent ‘fixes’

US NUCLEAR POWER POLICY

• Weinberg – US has no nuclear energy policy

• Rayner – Yes it has

– Continue R&D

– No new capacity

• Parties could not agree they had agreed

WATER STRESS

• Conservation rate pricing in San Juan Capsitrano

– Household allocation

– Seasonally adjusted lot size

– Discretionary use at high price

• Embodied competing principles of fairness

CHALLENGES

• Embracing clumsiness moves us from techniques

for selecting among alternatives towards new

skills for creating imaginative solutions to wicked

problems

But

• Requires a new post-binary politics

• May appear to media & public as weak leadership

Ultimately

• Not just a design problem – it’s a challenge to the imagination

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