Bureau of Meteorology Update
16
Bureau of Meteorology Update Agnes Lane GODEX-NWP-4, November 2021
Transcript of Bureau of Meteorology Update
Bureau of
Meteorology
Update
Agnes Lane
GODEX-NWP-4,
November 2021
The Bureau's ground station network
Ground network includes:• 5 polar tracking ground stations (Crib Point,
Learmonth, Shoal Bay, Casey, Davis)• COSMIC-2 (Middle Point)• FY-2 and TARS (Crib Point)
Upgrades completed to receive JPSS-2 at all sites except at Learmonth (planned Q3 2022)
All sites will be upgraded to receive EPS-SG by Q2/Q3 2023.
The polar tracking ground stations are part of the Direct Broadcast Network (DB-Net), providing low latency data for NWP.
NWP: Australian Parallel Suite NWP Systems
ACCESS-G3
(12 km) and
GE3 (36 km)
ACCESS-TC3
(4 km)
ACCESS-C3
(1.5 km) and
CE3 (2.2 km)
Current NWP activities:
global, city and TC models
Global (ACCESS-G3 and GE3) City (ACCESS-C3 and CE3) Tropical Cyclone (ACCESS-TC3)
Data
assimilation
T-3 :T+3 window
Hybrid 4D-Var (N144 + N320)
C3: Hourly cycling
4D-Var
T-3:T+2 window
4D-Var
Observations
AHI CSR, AIRS, AMSR-2, ATMS,
ATOVS, CrIS, IASI, SSMIS
GPSRO, GPS WV
AMV, ASCAT, Windsat
AIREPS, AMDAR, BUOY, METAR,
PILOT, SHIP, SYNOP, TEMP,
WINPRO
TC BOGUS
AIRS, ATMS, ATOVS, CrIS, IASI (will
include locally-received data)
GPS WV
AMV, ASCAT
AIREPS, AMDAR, BUOY, METAR,
PILOT, SHIP, SYNOP, TEMP,
WINPRO
Doppler Radar Winds
AIRS, ATMS, ATOVS, CrIS, IASI (will
include locally-received data)
GPS WV (if in domain)
AMV, ASCAT, (ScatSat-1, Windsat)
AIREPS, AMDAR, BUOY, METAR,
PILOT, SHIP, SYNOP, TEMP,
WINPRO
TC BOGUS
Model configurations
Global
(ACCESS-G3 and GE3)
City
(ACCESS-C3 and CE3)
Tropical Cyclone
(ACCESS-TC3)
Deterministic
N1024 (12 km), L70
00, 06, 12, 18 UTC
1.5 km, L80
6 domains
Hourly
4 km, L80,
Up to 3 relocatable domains
00, 12 UTC
Ensemble
N400 (36 km), L70
18 members (plus lagging)
00, 06, 12, 18 UTC
2.2 km, L80
12 members (plus lagging)
00, 06, 12, 18 UTC*
Data
assimilation
T-3 :T+3 window
Hybrid 4D-Var (N144 + N320)
C3: Hourly cycling
4D-Var
T-3:T+2 window
4D-Var
Bias
Correction
VarBC, with static scan bias
correctionUses VarBC coefficients from G3 Uses VarBC coefficients from G3
SST analysis GAMSSA[1] RAMSSA[2] GAMSSA[1]
Soil moisture
analysis
EKF analysis of screen
temperature & humidity and
ASCAT soil moisture
Uses Soil moisture analysis from
G3Uses Soil moisture analysis from G3
Current NWP activities: Hydro model
AWRA-L (hydro forecasting service)JULES land surface initialisation (for
ACCESS-G3 NWP)
Data
assimilation
Sequential KF – Triple Collocation error
variance for gain weightsEKF
Observations
ASCAT 12.5km soil moisture (Metop-A, B, C)
SMAP Lvl2 soil moisture product
ASCAT soil moisture product (Metop-A, B)
AWRA-L Model
ASCAT 12.5km
soil moisture productNASA SMAP satellite
Level2 soil moisture product
Triple Collocation (TC) error variances for surface soil moisture (lighter = lower error)
AWRA-L ASCAT SMAPEvaluation across in-situ soil moisture networks
Satellite data assimilation: hydro model
R&D Plan 2020 – 2030
"Customised impact-based forecasts and warnings when and where it counts: more localised, timely and better information for cities and regional areas"
• "… underpinned by very fine spatial resolution and rapidly updating urban and regional models" (5-year goal)
"Reliable and trusted forecasts: enhanced assimilation of observations for more accurate predictions"
• "Ten per cent reduction in forecast error for numerical prediction (including for high-impact multi-hazard events)." (5-year KPI)
"An Earth system numerical prediction capability…"
• "Implementation of model updates from the UK Met Office within six months of becoming available at the UK Met Office." (Overall KPI)
Current: APS3 – Introduction of enabling capabilities
• First operational ensemble prediction systems for global and high resolution models.
➢ Assessment of forecast reliability, quantifying risk, probability of threshold exceedance
• First assimilation of data (hourly) directly into high resolution models
➢ Step to rapid update forecasting capability
National Analysis System (NAS) – 3-D gridded representation of the weather for situational awareness.
Future: APS4 – Maturing of enabling capabilities
• Improved rapid update capability and situational awareness, through a particular focus on enhanced data assimilation at the regional to city scale
• Model updates implemented and operational within a year of release at the UK Met Office
Future plans
Model UKMO Parallel
Suite (PS)
Grid
Resolution
Lead time and
frequency
Ensemble
size
Comment
G4/GE4 Interim PS44 12.5km / 33km 10 days at 2 per day
3 days at 2 per day
1 / 18 As G3/GE3 except
PS upgrade
C4/CE4 Interim PS44 1.5km / 2.2km 36 hours at 4 per day
Hourly C4 analysis
1 / 12 As C3/CE3 except
PS upgrade
G4/GE4 PS45 12.5km / 25km 10 days at 2 per day
5 days at 2 per day
Hourly G4 analysis
1 / 18
AusWAVE-G4/GE4 - As G4/GE4
+ enhancement
7 days at 2 per day
(?TBD)
1 / 18
C4 / CE4 PS45 or PS46 1.5km / 2.2km 3 days at 4 per day
36 hours at 4 per day
Hourly C4 analysis
1 / 18 Major work on DA
NAS upgrade PS45 or PS46 2.2 km Analysis hourly 1
G4/GE4 - update PS46 12.5km / 25km 10 days at 2 per day
5 days at 2 per day
Hourly G4 analysis
1 / 18 As G4/GE4 except
PS upgrade
TCE4 PS45 or PS46 4km 5 days at 4 per day 12
Future plans: APS4
FSO observing systems
impact
• standard adjoint-based technique
• moist energy-norm 24 hour forecast error
sensitivity
• Global and Australian domains
• real-time post-processor to operational ACCESS-
G
• more than 3y of data accumulated so far
• conventional obs-type rankings (top right) plus
more detailed analysis of impacts
e.g. individual satellite-radiance channel impacts,
etc. (lower right)
Future Plans:
• Implement for ACCESS-G3 (Dec 2021)
• Implement for ACCESS-C3 (late 2022)
Upper-air FSOI
From Australian upper-air
stations (Australian error norm)
Grey: neutral impact; Yellow-Red: very
beneficial
Synop FSOI
Grey: neutral impact; Blue: detrimental;
Yellow-Red: beneficial (red most
beneficial)
From Australian and
Australian/Antarctic stations
(global error norm)
FSOI of radiosonde observations north of Australia
in ACCESS-G
Motivation: establish impact of radiosonde
observations north of Aus, W. Pacific, with a view to
support re-establishment of PNG RAOB program
From Australian and
Australian/Antarctic stations (global
error norm)
GISC
Melbourne
portal
Contact: Weiqing QU
