BULGARIA: Indicators · 2020. 4. 8. · 3 BULGARIA: Indicators 2013 2014e 2015f Real GDP growth %...
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Transcript of BULGARIA: Indicators · 2020. 4. 8. · 3 BULGARIA: Indicators 2013 2014e 2015f Real GDP growth %...
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BULGARIA: Indicators 2013 2014e 2015f
Real GDP growth % 1.1 1.7 1.8
CPI (pa, yoy %) 0.9 -1.4 -0.5
Budget Balance/GDP* -1.8 -3.7 -3.0
Current Account/GDP 1.0 0.9 0.5
EUR/BGN (eop)
current 2014 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) N/A N/A N/A
* on a cash basis
1.9558
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
ROMANIA: Indicators 2013 2014e 2015f
Real GDP growth % 3.4 2.9 3.1
CPI (pa, yoy %) 4.0 1.1 0.3
Budget Balance/GDP * -2.2 -1.9 -1.9
Current Account/GDP -0.8 -0.4 -1.0
EUR/RON (eop) 4.46 4.40 4.45
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) 2.75 1.75 1.75
* on a cash basis
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
SERBIA: Indicators 2013 2014e 2015f
Real GDP growth % 2.6 -1.8 0.0
CPI (pa, yoy %) 7.9 2.2 3.0
Budget Balance/GDP -5.6 -7.5 -5.9
Current Account/GDP -6.1 -6.1 -4.7
EUR/RSD (eop) 114.60 120.96 123.00
2014 current 2015f
Policy Rate (eop) 8.00 6.00 5.50
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Eurobank Research,
National Authorities
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
MSCI
L-T ccy Moody's S&P Fitch
SERBIA B1 BB- B+
ROMANIA Baa3 BBB- BBB-
BULGARIA Baa2 BB+ BBB-
CYPRUS B3 B+ B-
Credit Ratings
4
Government Bonds Commodities
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD
S&P 500 2079.65 -1.1% 1.0% EUR/USD 1.1028 0.4% -8.8% UST - 10yr 2.25 -1 8 GOLD 1104 0.4% -6.8%
Nikkei 225 20350.10 -0.9% 16.6% GBP/USD 1.5536 0.2% -0.3% Bund-10yr 0.69 0 15 BRENT CRUDE 55 0.3% -4.4%
STOXX 600 394.64 -0.9% 15.2% USD/JPY 123.43 0.3% -3.0% JGB - 10yr 0.41 0 8 LMEX 2457 -0.1% -15.7%
GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX
BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
T/N 460 0 -531 O/N 0.83 0 26 LEONIA 0.01 0 -1
1-week 4.82 0 -519 1-month 1.03 0 12 1-month 0.18 0 -4
1-month 5.22 0 -483 3-month 1.28 0 -42 3-month 0.33 0 -10
3-month 5.68 0 -417 6-month 1.54 0 -47 6-month 0.64 0 -15
6-month 6.00 1 -379 12-month 1.64 0 -38 12-month 1.22 0 -28
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
3Y RSD 6.09 -1 -295 3Y RON 1.94 0 -37 3Y BGN 0.58 0 -46
5Y RSD 8.29 -1 -189 5Y RON 2.44 0 -27 5Y BGN 1.21 0 -24
7Y RSD 8.83 0 -325 10Y RON 3.73 0 7 10Y BGN 2.62 0 -13
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
USD Nov-17 3.47 0 -79 EUR Sep-20 1.58 0 -15 EUR Jul-17 0.62 -14 -54
USD Nov-24 6.48 1 -11 USD Aug-23 3.72 -2 11 EUR Sep-24 3.03 -27 16
Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps
5-year 270 -1 -20 5-year 127 3 -16 5-year 173 2 -18
10-year 316 0 -41 10-year 171 3 -16 10-year 217 3 -23
.
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
BELEX15 655.2 -0.25% -1.77% BET 7535.7 -0.02% 6.39% SOFIX 476.4 -0.61% -8.75%
Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD
EUR/RSD 120.36 0.01% 0.82% EUR/RON 4.4219 0.01% 1.39% USD/BGN 1.7737 0.38% -8.86%
STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS
BULGARIA
Money Market Money Market Money Market
CESEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA
RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds
RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds
FOREX FOREX FOREX
CDS CDS CDS
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Ju
l-1
4
Oct-
14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
BELEX15 Index
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Ju
l-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
BET Index
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
Ju
l-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
SOFIX Index
114
116
118
120
122
124
126
Ju
l-1
4
Oct-
14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
EUR/RSD
4.25
4.35
4.45
4.55
Ju
l-1
4
Oct-
14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
EUR/RON
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
Ju
l-1
4
Oct-
14
Ja
n-1
5
Ap
r-15
USD/BGN
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