Built Environment Futures - Professor John Ratcliffe

“BUILT ENVIRONMENT FUTURES”

Sustainability, Responsibility and Leadership

John S Ratcliffe

Visiting Professor

University of Salford

Salford

April 2011

Is this humanity’s last

century – or a century

that sets the world on a

course towards a

spectacular new future?

A NEW MINDSET

“The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose

horizons are limited by the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things

that never were.” (John F. Kennedy)

“FLIGHT FOR THE 21ST CENTURY:

„ICARUS‟ OR „THE PHOENIX‟ ”

A Confluence of Powerful

Trends

Problems Seem Intractable

The Demographics of

Discord

The „New Players‟

Problems are Structural

“The unusual and the unknown make us either over confident or overly fearful”

(Gaius Julius Caesar)

“ICARUS” – PREVAILING PESSIMISM

Population Growth

Climate Change

Food and Water

Safety and Security

Energy Deficit

“If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.”

(Irwin Corey)

“THE PHOENIX” – RATIONAL OPTIMISM

Urban Prospect

Developing Technology

A New Economy

The Natural Step

New Nuclear

“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity

in every difficulty” (Winston Churchill)

CREATING A NEW MINDSET

PAST HISTORIC

PRESENT INDICATIVE

FUTURE IMPERFECT

Strategic foresight is having a view of what can be done

by organisations today to positively influence the future.

Futures, Foresight and Scenarios

SYSTEMS THINKING AND FUTURES

“The empires of the future are the empires of the mind”

(Winston Churchill)

“The main difference that distinguishes the 21st century from those

that preceded it is the need to create a mindset that can tackle the

conscious design of large systems”

CHANGING THE METAPHOR FOR ORGANISATIONS

“From machines to complex adaptive systems”

“It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory.” (W. Edwards Deming)

„MECHANISTIC‟ Worldview (Occidental)

Rationalism and empiricism

Observations, measurement and logical analysis

Residing within a lineal casual framework

Machine, understood and measured by properties of parts

Categories and hierarchies

“In ecological terms it is anthropocentric within the human race seen as separate from and above nature …”

„Systematic‟ Worldview (Oriental)

Holism and communalism

Tools are intuition, participation & adaptability

All residing within a cyclical causal framework

World as an organisation, system with sub-systems

Whole greater than sum of part

“In an ecological terms it is eco-centric, with the human race as an inextricable part

of the planetary system…”

FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS

“The things which are seen are temporal; but the things which are not seen are

eternal.“ (II Corinthians 4.1:18)

Adaptiveness

Discovery

Knowledge

Process

Values

Outside-in

Speed

Leadership

Discipline

Planning

Hard Assets

Structure

Controls

Inside-out

Size

Management

“In the context of creating a better built environment, the use of futures

methods offers a rigorous, comprehensive and integrated approach

towards anticipating, planning and implementing sustainable urban

development, relying, as it does, more on intuition, participation and

adaptability than conventional strategic thinking and planning systems.”

FUTURES ORIENTED THINKING

Emergence

Multiple

Perspectives

Frameworks

&

Structure

So

What?

“Cheer up – the worst is yet to come!”

WHY FORESIGHT?

Running a 21st century organisation

more complex

Need to understand driving forces of

change

Trends matter – weak signals count

Anticipation and exploration prerequisite

Rehearsing alternative futures

“Knowing others is wisdom, knowing yourself is Enlightenment.”

(Lao Tzu)

WHAT IS FORESIGHT?

Strategic foresight (SF) is having a view of

what can be done by organisations today to

positively influence the future.

SF is the ability to create and maintain a high-

quality, coherent and functional forward view,

and to use the insights arising in

organisationally useful ways.

SF is about thinking, debating and shaping the

future.

“Being loved deeply by someone gives you strength, while loving someone deeply

gives you courage.” (Lao Tzu)

FORESIGHT TEAMS CONTRIBUTION

Anticipating emerging issues

Identifying unintended

consequences

Getting a sense of the big picture

Drawing on a wide range of

information sources

Involving all concerned

“The words of truth are always paradoxical”

(Lao Tzu)

THE STRATEGIC FORESIGHT PROCESS

Framing the Strategic Question(s)

Scanning the Horizon

Forecasting Alternative Futures

Visioning A Preferred Future

Planning Strategic Options

Acting on an Agreed Agenda

“He who does not trust enough, will not be trusted.”

(Lao Tzu)

PROSPECTIVE THROUGH SCENARIOS

“The future is that period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends are true,

and our happiness is assured” (Ambrose Bierce)

Set the Strategic Question

Identify the Driving Forces of Change

Determine the Main Issues and Trends

Clarify the Level of Impact and Degree of Uncertainty

Establish Scenario Logics

Create Different Scenarios

Test Policy Options

Identify Turning Points

Produce Prospective

Move to Strategic Planning

Divergence

Convergence

Emergence

High to Low Importance

Strategic

Conversations

Horizon Scanning

Delphi Survey

Cross-Impact

Analysis

Prospective

Workshops

Clustering

Polarising

Ranking

Morphological

Analysis

Creative Writing

Wind Tunnel

Testing

Gaming and

Simulation

Causal Layered

Analysis

SCENARIO TYPOLOGY

Evolutionary Catastrophic Transformational

Conventional Worlds Barbarisation Great Transitions

Market

Forces

Policy

Reform

Breakdown Fortress

World

Eco -

Communalism

New

Sustainability

Paradigm

Muddling Through

“Show me someone who doesn't dream about the future and I'll show you

someone who doesn't know where they are going”

SCENARIO LOGICS (TWICE THE SIZE)

“When there is a great cry that something should be done, you can depend on it

that something remarkably silly will be done”

GLOBAL OUTCOMES

Global Outcomes

Outsights

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we

now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all

there ever will be to know and understand.” (Albert Einstein)

WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS?“Can we go on like this?”

Meta-forces

Macro-forces

Micro-forces

“Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions and can never pretend

to any other office than to serve and obey them” (David Hume, 1783)

THREE META-FORCES

VALUES

VISIONS

VECTORS

“Unless the investment in children is made, all of humanity's most fundamental

long-term problems will remain fundamental long-term problems.” (UNICEF)

Figure 1: Kondratieff cycles – long waves of prosperity.

Rolling 10-year yield on the S&P 500 since 1814 till March 2009 (in %, p. a.) So

urc

e: D

ata

str

ea

m; Illu

str

atio

n: A

llia

nz G

lob

al In

ve

sto

rs C

ap

ita

l M

ark

et

An

aly

sis

However, the history of modern societies suggest also something for our future….

VALUES

The Transformation Towards

A Sustainable Responsible Civilization

“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.”

(Edmund Burke)

Ecological footprint

Human Development

Index*

Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006 "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development."

UP

DO

WN

*HDI = life expectancy + education level + purchasing power

Improving people‟s health and

well-being while respecting the

limits of natural resources

Health &

Well-being

THE GREAT GLOBAL VALUES DEBATE

Millennium Development Goals

Cultures Consequences

Spiral Dynamics

World Values Survey

Interfaith Dialogue

“Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who find it” (André Gide )

CULTURAL VALUES MAP

“What we call basic truths are simply the ones we discover after all the others”

(Albert Camus)

CHANGING ATTITUDES TOWARDS TIME

“What we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of

questioning.” (Werner Heisenberg)

Self-Aware Autonomy

Empathetic Universalism

Progress and Ethics

The Social Aspiration Gap

Signposts to 21st C. Enlightenment

VISIONS

“Government is a badge of lost innocence… For were the impulses of conscience

clear, uniform and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver”

(Thomas Paine)

“Twenty-first Century Enlightenment”

To a sustainable world in 2050

From business-as-usual

2050



TODAY



VECTORS

Globalisation

Urbanisation

Environmentalism

Internet

Social Media

Faith – Based Movements

Terrorism

Pandemics

“The Internet is becoming the town square for the global village of tomorrow.”

(Bill Gates )

“An agent that acts as a carrier or transporter”

pro

Gective -

-F

abie

nne G

OU

X-B

AU

DIM

EN

T©

GLOBAL RISKS LANDSCAPE 2011

“If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent

people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid‟” (John Maynard Keynes)

RISKS INTERCONNECTION MAP 2011

“Fundamentalism is a specter stalking the globe, but Islam is not its synonym”

(Rana Kabbani)

RISKS IN FOCUS

Cross-cutting global risks: Economic disparity and global governance failures

“These things will destroy the human race: politics without principle, progress

without compassion, wealth without work, learning without silence, religion without

fearlessness and worship without awareness.” (Anthony de Mello)

MACRO-FORCES

THE FIVE CRUCIBLES OF CHANGE

1. The Great Rebalancing

2. Global Connectivity

3. Planetary Stewardship

4. The Productivity Imperative

5. The Market State

“They must often change who would be constant in happiness or wisdom.”

(Confucius)

1. THE GREAT REBALANCING

The „depletion‟ of the West

The power of „Sovereign Wealth‟

A multi –polar world

Vibrancy of emerging markets

Managing multiple business models

“Let a hundred flowers blossom, let a hundred schools of thought contend.”

(Mao Tse-Tung)

2. GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY

Every company a global company

Your customer is „Tweeting‟

Imagine the power of 4 billion minds

Everything – not just everyone – is connected

Expect a bumpy ride

“All human beings are interconnected, one with all other elements in creation.”

(Henry Reed)

3. PLANETARY STEWARDSHIP

Interplay of 3 powerful forces

- growing demand

- constrained supply

- increased regulation

Commodity prices will rise – and fall!

Planning for different outcomes

Resource productivity ˃ labour

productivity

Prepare for regulatory change

“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.”

(Native American Proverb)

4. THE PRODUCTIVITY IMPERATIVE

Emerging Markets vs. Developed Nations

“Do it smarter” Rewards

Maximise Returns from „Thinkers‟

Reinvention of „Work‟

Turning Free Goods into Gold

“Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is

either a madman or an economist” (Kenneth Boulding)

Give the people control and we will use it

Your worst customer is your best friend

Do what you do best – and link to the rest

Join a network. Be a platform. Think distributed

If you‟re not searchable you won‟t be found

Life is public – so is business

Your customers are your ad agency

Small is the new big. The mass market is dead

Middlemen are doomed. Free is a business model

There is an inverse relationship between control and trust

Trust the people. Listen. Be honest. Be transparent

Collaborate. Life is live. Answers are instantaneous

Encourage, enable and protect innovation.

Simplify, Simplify

DON‟T BE EVIL!

5. THE MARKET STATE

Larger role for the state – not smaller

- Mitigate negative impacts of globalisation

- Regulation of financial architecture

- Multi- lateral consensus required

Public Private Partnership – Beyond Procurement

Selecting the Right Partners

Companies Working Across Boundaries

Vested Interests – Mutual Recognition

“For each of our actions there are only consequences.” (James Lovelock)

MICRO-FORCES (EMPIRICAL)TEN CORPORATE IMPERATIVES

1. Thinking creatively, strategically and systematically

2. Increasing „interdisciplinarity‟ and „intergenerationality‟

3. Fostering trust, responsibility and reputation

4. Exploring convergent technologies and divergent ideas

5. Mainstreaming the „Green Revolution‟

6. Deconstructing demographic destines

7. Managing knowledge and leading talent

8. Moving from an energy economy to an information economy

9. Engaging communities and behaving civically

10. Promoting authentic leadership in a futures orientated organisation

“Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most

wickedest of things for the greatest good for everyone” (John Maynard Keynes)

TEN TOP BUSINESS ATTRIBUTES

1. Trustworthiness

2. Brand Integrity

3. Social Responsibility

4. Diversity

5. Foresight

6. Vision

7. Bravery

8. Agility

9. Adaptability

10. Informed Intuition

“Know yourself – be yourself – show yourself” (John Ratcliffe)

ELEVEN EU CITIES CHALLENGES

1. How to counter social/spatial segregation/polarisation?

How to ensure social and functional mixity?

2. How to foster social inclusion and economic integration of

disadvantaged groups, especially migrants?

3. How to ensure economic transitions? (entrepreneurial

environment; local & social economy; knowledge/green

economy; a viable manufacturing sector)?

4. How to manage and adapt to demographic changes (e.g.

ageing/age imbalances; shrinking/ growing; in/out

migration)?

5. How to maintain and attract a broad range of

skills/competencies? How to stimulate job creation and

availability?

6. How to achieve a sustainable mobility (pedestrian, bike,

clean urban transport, car, new transport modes,

accessibility)?

7. How to achieve greater energy efficiency and manage the

transition towards a carbon-neutral city?

8. How to manage natural resources (water, waste, air, soil

and land)?

9. How to ensure territorial cohesion and coherence? How

to manage relationships between cities and their

surroundings (hinterland; urban/peri-urban;

metropolises)?

10. How to foster cities' attractiveness (e.g., education,

culture, sports, creativity and cultural/industrial heritage;

safety and security; public spaces and public services)

11. How to ensure financial sustainability?

ELEVEN EU CITIES CHALLENGES

TEN TRAVEL AND TOURISM CHALLENGES

1. Taking Responsibility

2. Evolving Destinations

3. Promoting Slow and Geo-Tourism

4. Travelling With a Purpose

5. Going Overland

6. Catering for the Burgeoning Middle-Classes

7. Satisfying the “Digital Natives”

8. Tackling the Technological Transformations

9. Attending the Lure of Eastern Promise

10. Ensuring Safety, Security and Sustainability

BUILT ENVIRONMENT FORESIGHT 2030

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know

and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know

and understand.”

(Albert Einstein)

How Will We Think?

Will We Behave Differently?

What About Real Estate?

Who Will Be Involved?

What Really Lies Ahead?

PROPOSITUM:

FIVE BIG QUESTIONS

Strategically

Systematically

Creatively

Reflectively

Intergenerationally

PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS

How Will We Think?

“Science investigates religion interprets. Science gives man knowledge which is

power religion gives man wisdom which is control.” (Martin Luther King, Jr.)

With Values

With Responsibility

With Cross-Disciplinarity

With Discretion

With Foresight


Will We Behave Differently?

“These things will destroy the human race: politics without principle, progress without compassion, wealth

without work, learning without silence, religion without fearlessness and worship without awareness.”

(Anthony de Mello)

Qualitative not Quantitative

Infrastructure and Civics

A Service Industry

A Two-Tier Sustainable

Market

Location and Mobility


What About Real Estate?

“Just because everything is different doesn't mean anything has changed.”

(Irene Peter)

The Professions

Public Private Partnerships

Regulators

Communities

Leaders


Who Will Be Involved?

“The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by

the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things that never were.” (John F. Kennedy)

Managing the Energy Deficit

Defusing the Demographic

Time-Bomb

Exploiting Converging Technologies

Mainstreaming Green Development

Profiting from a Responsible and

Sustainable Future


What Really Lies Ahead?

“We have it in our power to begin the world over again” (Thomas Paine)

TEN REAL ESTATE CHALLENGES

1. Capturing the Infrastructure Opportunity

2. Participating in Public Private Partnership

3. Changing Locations

4. Appreciating Market Divergence

5. Exploring Second and Third Tier Cities

6. Switching to Service and Function

7. Boom in Health, Education & Leisure

8. Embrace New Building Technology

9. Emerging Markets May Be The Next Bubble

10. Energy is the Key – Risk Management the Imperative

“Imagine if capitalism collapsed as it did not allow prices to tell the ecological truth;

just as socialism collapsed because it did not allow prices to tell the economic truth”

(John Ratcliffe, 2008)

Built Environment Harmony

Strategic Foresight

Enlightened Leadership

“Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom. Mastering others is strength;

mastering yourself is true power. If you realize that you have enough, you are truly rich.”

(Tao Te Ching)

NEW LEADERSHIP?

“Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality.” (Warren G Bennis)

SOME THOUGHTS ON LEADERSHIP

Create a democracy of ideas

Amplify the organisations imagination

Dynamically reallocate resources

Aggregate collective wisdom

Minimise the drag of old mental models

Give everyone the chance to take part

“Governing a large country is like frying a small fish. You spoil it with too much poking.”

(Tao Te Ching)

“The wicked leader is he who the people

despise. The good leader is he who the

people revere. The great leader is he who

the people say, „We did it ourselves.‟”

( Lao Tzu )

Built Environment Futures - Professor John Ratcliffe

Education

Transcript of Built Environment Futures - Professor John Ratcliffe