David MoldenInternational Water Management Institute

Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management

Presentation

Drivers of Water Use Agriculture, Population & Diets,

urbanization, energy, politics, poverty, closing basins, water scarcity, climate change

Future Water Needs Adaptive Responses Propositions

One liter of water produces one calorie on average

Food

Sup

ply

in C

alor

ies

One liter of water produces one calorie on average

Will there be enough water? A question posed to 700

researchers and practitioners who put together the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture.

Investing in Irrigation

Irrigated Area

Food price index

World Bank lending for irrigation

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

01960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

0

Living Planet IndexFreshwater Species

Export Prices of wheat 1961-2008 (US $/ t fob)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

*2008 data is up to june

US

$ (

in 2

005

Pric

es)

Urbanization

Urbanization

• Increased demand for water for cities• Reallocation from irrigation to cities• Cities generate more wastewater – an important

source of agricultural supplies• Changes in dietary preferences – farmers respond to

different demands• Voting dynamics shift• Cities offer jobs – competition for rural employment

55

Water and Energy

Power Connection in Uttar Pradesh India

Rapidly increasing demand for electricity connection in the domestic sector

Water for Biofuels

Litres of ET Litres of Irrigation water

China 3800 2500

India 4100 3500

US 1750 300

Brazil 2250 200

Water use per liter of biofuel production

Energy in Nepal

Hydropower in Nepal: Potential: 42,000 MW, Actual: 700 MW

• River basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left

• Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets

• Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent

• Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production

Limits – reached or breached

Water Scarcity 2000

1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005)

840 million malnourished people remaining

MOST HUNGRY AND POOR PEOPLE LIVE WHERE WATER CHALLENGES POSE A CONSTRAINT TO FOOD PRODUCTION

Will there be enough water to grow enough food, reduce poverty and support ecosystems?

No, unless ….We change the way we think and act on water issues.

Answer from the Comprehensive Assessment –

WHAT OF THE FUTURE?

USA

projectionsdata

2003

1961 2050

China

India

140

20

120

100

40

60

80

WorldMeat

consu

mpti

on

kg/c

ap/y

rPer capita meat demand (kg/cap/yr)

How much more cereals?

Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of diet and population growth

Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivity gains

Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA

Today

Without Water Productivity Gains,

crop consumption doubles by 2050

2050

Water Use – Today and 2050

No Water Productivity Gains

Water Use – Today and 2050

Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA

Today

CA Scenario

No Water Productivity

Gains

CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade

2050

Climate Change

Mitigation is about gases.Adaptation is about water.

- Costs 1/3rd of growth potential- Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods

Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

year

%

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

rainfall variability

GDP growth

Ag GDP growth

Unmitigated rainfall and hydrological variability

Source: World Bank, 2006. A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy

for Ethiopia

Water storage mitigates variability

Source: World Bank

But need to re-think water storage:

role of groundwater, and soil moisture, insurance

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000D

ays

of s

tora

ge c

apac

ity

Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability

Policy Agenda – Where is there hope?

Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options

Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services

Address Drivers of Change

Our policies and actions outside the water sector; Agriculture Trade Response to climate change Diets Energy/biofuels

have a profound impact on water resources.

Photos from Diet for a Small Planet

Political Drivers

Regional stability and conflicts International agreements Corruption and transparency International goals and objectives

Challenge: to develop solutions in the context of fragile states, countries in conflict, weak governance arrangements

Productivity

United States

China

Latin America

Sub-Saharan AfricaM

aize

yie

ld (

tons

/hec

tare

)

Increase Water Productivity• Physical Water Productivity – more crop per

drop– To reduce future water needs– For food production increases

• Economic Water Productivity – more value per drop– For more income, growth– Integrated, multiple use systems

Adapt yesterday’s irrigation

to tomorrow’s needs1. To reduce rural poverty2. To improve performance of many systems,

particularly in South Asia3. To keep up with changing food demand4. To adapt to changes – water scarcity,

competition, climate change, energy5. To increase multiple benefits and ecosystem

services, while reducing negative impacts

Around 70% of the world’s under-

nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural

livelihood options are limited.

Get water to poor people, use it better

Improve and Safeguard Water Access

Access to Technologies

Manage Externalities

Deal with negative impacts of water development

Ecosystem degradationNegative health impactsInequitable benefitsLoss of biodiversity

Propositions• Facilitate crafting of context specific adaptive policy and

management responses. • Refocus on agricultural productivity, especially water

productivity in light of scarcity. Share benefits.• Focus on access to water for the poor through technology and

rights, in particular for women and marginalized groups. Upgrading rainfed agriculture has high potential.

• Reinvent and revitalize irrigation in light of water scarcity and changing societal needs, with a focus on institutional and policy change.

• Identify and manage externalities brought about by water resources development and management in doing the above.

Considering local context, increasing demand & competition, complexity & integration, drivers of change, local politics

Thank You !

“Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for science”

John F Kennedy