Generally(the(assump/on(is(that(maximizing(mone/za/on(and(player(sa/sfac/on(are(contradictory(goals,(but(I(really(don’t(think(that’s(true.((

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Like diamonds, good games can last forever, or at least for at least what feels like forever.

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The 2012 charts were dominated by games that have been around for a decade or more, there’s some serious tenure here. The newest is two years old and Madden & Super Mario have earned gold watches for 25+ years of service. Of course these are mostly sequels of games/game franchises, but it’s certainly fair to think of them as expansions and updates as they mostly have the same basic mechanics as their original as well as the same characters/universes.

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It’s just as true of online games. Ultima Online, the first massively popular MMO, is still live and receiving updates

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Everquest, which launched in 1999, released it’s 19th expansion in November and is actively advertising, I got this ad just last week.

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WoW may be down from its 2010 peak but at 10 million subscribers it still has twice the audience as it did in 2005 and a business we all envy.

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Of course these are all famous games that were big hits from launch and have been invested in over the years. But it’s not just them. How many of you have heard of Netstorm? It was a pretty original online RTS made by a small studio co-founded by my brother. It came out as a PC title in 1997, and was a fun game that got generally strong reviews. But it suffered from poor timing as it was a bit early for a mainly internet title, a lot of other RTS’s came out the same season, and the publisher decided not to give it much marketing support. The publisher didn’t want either to fund a sequel or release the rights, so the studio went out of business and abandoned the game, but open-sourced the servers so that the existing players could play if they wanted to.

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15 years after the game was abandoned it still has active servers and community, and is being remade (non-commercially) in Unity by a farmer from West Virginia who is a big fan.

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There’s lots of examples of long-lived PC & web F2P games, and we’re starting to see it in mobile with Clash of Clans camped out at the top of the charts since last August, but as an industry we don’t think about longevity that much. There’s a talk about Farmville later titled “Why won’t Farmville go away?”, which is great, but we shouldn’t be surprised that Farmville is still around after 5 years, I fully expect it to be around for 20 or more.

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So you can see some of our short-term mindset in the stats that we use, which both show what we’re thinking about and limit it to just those things.

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So we launched our virtual goods platform in 2008, more than 4 years ago, and now have more than 300 F2P games using it. The great thing about having a platform is that we can do lots of comparative analysis to understand what drives success in games. And the results all say to me that to get the most out the games we should really be thinking much, much longer.

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So let’s take a look at some of that data. Before I dive in I want to give a few definitions so that it’s clear what I’m talking about.

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ARPU is on the vertical axis, % of players who play 2 or more times on the horizontal. The size of the bubble represents lifetime revenue (which favors older games) Apologies to those who’ve seen these charts before, but so important they bear repeating. And data is fresh, with a lot more games & history. Big formless blob – no correlation between ARPU and % repeat, which is counter-intuitive though higher is better -> more revenue for the same ARPU, game spreads better. But it’s counterintuitive that games can have high ARPUs when most people never return and have a chance to monetize.

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Correlation line starts to form, but still a lot of variation

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Correlation number is a lot stronger, my R2 is now over 0.30, and it keeps going up as I look at plays deeper and deeper, it’s in the 40s for 100+ plays for games over 6 months but I won’t bore you with more similar charts.

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This is a lot of data. Some things to notice is that the huge increase in revenue/ARPU is driven most strongly by increasing conversion, but also by a big increase in transactions per buyer. The size of the transactions goes up, too, but not quite as dramatically.

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Performance lower across the board, especially in conversion and the # of transactions in the deep cohort

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For the top multiplayer games 67% of revenue comes from those spending $300+. For the rest of the multiplayer games it’s 48%, still quite high.

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This is the average cumulative spend for buyers who’ve been playing games at least 6 months, broken by those who’ve spent $300+ lifetime and those who haven’t. The big spenders, as expected, dwarf the ordinary buyers – though at about $4 per day it’s not very different from what many people here spend on coffee. What’s fascinating is how linear it is: only 50% of the 6M value has been captured at 60 days. Unfortunately with this view it’s a little hard to tell what’s going on with the smaller spenders.

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To better see what’s going on with smaller spenders relative to big let’s switch to looking at a normalized distribution. It turns out small spenders are a lot more front-loaded than big spenders, who take 2 months to even hit the 50% mark, and look a lot more like the buyers in single-player games.

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Big spenders in top games are even more linear – their spending actually starts lower than big spenders in other games, but continue to appreciate after the 4 month point when big spenders in other games are flattening out.

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The pattern is even more dramatic with small spenders – spending starts similarly but in top games grows over time, and quite a few of these buyers will likely top $300 in the future. What’s driving this? One part has to do with whether investment, especially continuing investment, makes sense in the game. There are some games where a first purchase (say a weapon) make a lot of sense, but further purchases have diminishing returns in terms of value to you as a player. But much more than that it has to do with retention: a player can only spend if they are still in the game.

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We all tend to obsess over games/companies showing exponential growth but more often that not that’s followed by a crash. Linear may be less sexy and headline-catching, but the tortoise generally does win out. Top games still making as much or more as at launch as they hit 2- and 3-year anniversaries on Kong.

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Okay, so what do I need to do to build my awesome linear business? The first one seems sort of stupid but is actually both hard & complicated once you add that 6 month caveat. There’s lots of fun games that you enjoy for an hour or two, or even a week or two, but quickly run out of steam. Here are some ways to fight that.

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RPG is defined a bit loosely here, and really means that you’re building up your account over time, leveling up, adding skills, etc.

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This is Wartune, a big hit in China by Seventh Road that has been brought to the west by R2 games. It has so many currencies, bars, buttons, etc that it’s almost hard to see the screen of an advanced player, though they do a good job of introducing them gradually. There’s synchronous solo & team PvP, solo & team PvE, asynchronous plundering, guild battles, farming, town building, weapon synthesizing & upgrading, astral collecting & combining, and I’ve definitely forgotten something.

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Wartune gives player a literal to-do list of a wide variety tasks that you get a reward for completing. And these are fun tasks, not a grind.

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There’s also a wide variety of daily events occurring at different set times

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Seasonal events mix in to add variety

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So not every game is going to launch with everything that Wartune has but a game should launch with plenty of content – a minimum viable product definitely needs some sort of end-game, and a good plan for adding more and more to do over time.

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But if your content is slower to produce than players are to consume it you can be in a more-or-less permanent hole, and the resources required to keep up with players may not be justified by the revenue. As your designing your game you want to think about a set-up that allows you to expand the content with as little effort as possible. Multiplayer is the ultimate as interactions with other players create a tremendous variety of experiences. Allowing users to create content through level and sprite editors. Procedurally generated content is the ideal (as long as there is a true sense of variety and surprise) but just planning your systems to allow for easy creation of similar content that still creates a variety of experience for the users can work as well, though you’ll need to create deeper variety as well Realm of the Mad God manages to incorporate all of these, with user-generated monsters & items, procedurally-generated dungeons, and co-op multiplayer…

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Tyrant, a CCG by Synapse Games, has done a good job of this over the two years it’s been on Kongregate. They’ve interspersed major expansions of multiplayer elements The new card sets drive purchases ! there’s a big burst in revenue as soon as they’re released – but they also provide variety for those who don’t buy them because they are in rotation in the sealed deck tournaments (as well as in the decks of opponents)

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So by social I mean more than multiplayer – you can have multiplayer with fairly anonymous or hostile interactions. By social I mean setting up a situation where players can really get to know each other and form relationships

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We’ve got chat next to every game, and forums just below, and we think it’s a big contributor to games reporting significantly higher ARPUs (generally 2X) on Kongregate than on Facebook or other platforms.

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Revenue is generally 20x higher for guild members than non-guild members, though generally true of late-stage players it’s a bit hard to tease out causation. However the addition of guilds, especially competitive guilds, is often an inflection point for revenue for games.

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The very top games have both synchronous and asynchronous multiplayer because more things to do is better, but asynchronous generally the focus. Aysnchronous allows players to play and interact at their pace and convenience which leads to deeper engagement. Asynchronous in this case means asynch raids, plundering – not turn-based asynchronous common in mobile.

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Since we want people to keep playing lots of game take the tack of punishing people (crops withering, troops dying, account deactivated) when they’re gone for too long. This is bad – we all have times (exams, vacations, work crunches, illnesses) when we need to take a break from a game. And the problem with punishing people is that the consequences are experienced not when they’re gone, but when they come back – the exact behavior you want to reward. If they feel like they’ve lost too much they’re likely to quit – why start again if you’ll just lose it? Wartune and Dawn of the Dragons actually reward you with gold and XP after an absence – Clash of Clans on mobile handles this well as well. Your base may have been looted but that shows just briefly before your base restores itself and you can fill up your resource bars. You may even have gained trophies…

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Okay, if not easy it’s way easier to get to someone to make a second purchase than it was to get them to make the first purchase, and way easier than finding someone else to play and make a purchase. It’s crucial to leave a buyer feeling good about the purchase and their investment in the game.

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People(leave(bad(rela/onships(and(if(a(player(doesn’t(feel(good(about(the(way(they(treated(they(will(walk,(and(they’re(unlikely(to(give(another(game(you(make(a(chance,(either.((((This(was(a(strong(performing(game(with(a(good(launch(and(excellent(reten/on.(Around(week(15(the(developer(added(an(incredibly(powerful,(very(rare(item(to(its(gambling(wheel,(which(gave(the(impression(that(the(chances(at(items(were(equal.((Sales(shot(up(and(players(poured($100s(and(in(many(cases($1000s(into(the(item,(then(felt(resenPul.(Game(also(introduced(some(terrible(bugs(and(was(not(responsive(to(complaints(–(players(organized(a(revolt(in(the(forums,(sales(dropped(to(nothing,(and(we(received(refund(requests(from(nearly(half(of(the(buyers.(We(convinced(them(to(apologize,(fix(the(bugs,(rework(the(mechanic,(and(do(a(general(compensa/on(and(most(of(the(players(came(back(but(the(game(never(fully(recovered,(and(sales(are(significantly(lower(than(other(games(that(started(with(similar(numbers(and(trajectories(

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It’s not just buyers, you want everyone to feel fairly treated. Multiplayer games are better when more people play then, that’s why they are the games that work best in a F2P model. So every player adds value you to your game, and if non-buyers are having too bad an experience either because they can’t make progress, or they don’t have a competitive shot, they will leave. This may have a long-term impact on your revenue in two ways: 1) every nonbuyer is still a potential buyer – we had one big spender who played a game 900 times over 5 months before spending a dime, but then started spending $1,000 a month; 2) that nonbuyer is likely either the friend or the potential opponent of your buyers, whose experience has just been diminished. For whom the bell tolls, and all that. There’s a smallish but positive correlation between games that keep nonbuyer retention closer to buyer retention and ARPU.

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So this really is just an extension of my previous point: you want to keep all of your players and every interaction you have with them matters. If a player feel that you care about them and their experience they will be tremendously loyal, partly because that experience is sadly rare. Good community management is the key here.

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1) And ideally, fun – let the players see you’re human 2) You don’t have to agree. Players sometimes want things that are batshit crazy. But if they know you heard them, it immediately feels like a dialog and a partnership. 3) Explaining your “why” goes a very long way 4) Advance notice gives players time to adjust OR get excited 5) Engage the rational in calm discussion, but never let yourself get combative and disengage once 1-4 have been satisfied. This can be hard.

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5th Planet Games are past masters of this – they’re a community first company, and have the highest rates of players hitting 500+ lifetime plays of any games on Kongregate Players usually include both a big spender and a nonbuyer, a guild leader, and representatives of different platforms (Kongregate, Facebook, mobile, etc)

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This includes fixes bugs & exploits as well as answering emails In the face of a real problem/issue, how much does some virtual currency or items cost you? Token amounts are often enough to acknowledge the issue, and keeping the player = priceless Because news will spread and players will (correctly) think you’re unfair. So have rules for what you will and won’t do and why, so you can be consistent.

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This is about how you think about your business.

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As(/me(passes(postUlaunch(it(gets(more(and(more(temp/ng(to(move(on(to(something(else.((This(doesn’t(mean(you(shouldn’t(be(inves/ng(in(making(other(games.(You(should!(But(you(can’t(reduce(the(amount(of(aYen/on/resources(your(exis/ng(game,(even(temporarily,(without(consequences.(We(see(this(again(and(again(with(small(studios(where(they(get(distracted(by(new(games(–(sales(drop(on(their(hit(as(players(run(out(of(content(and(start(leaving,(the(new(game(doesn’t(do(as(well,(and(while(things(pick(up(when(they(turn(aYen/on(back(to(their(main(game(sales(don’t(reach(previous(heights(because(some(players(have(le[.(( This takes a lot of organizational discipline. We’re human, and especially entrepreneurial humans are attracted to new and different things

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Familiarity(can(breed(contempt(and(as(you(work(on(a(game(you(keep(thinking(about(how(beYer(it(would(have(been(if(you’d(used(a(different(tech,(or(a(different(perspec/ve,(or(mechanic(and(the(desire(to(remake(your(game(in(a(sequel(can(be(really(strong.(While(there(are(situa/ons(where(sequels(make(sense,(par/cular(in(singleUplayer(games,(it’s(rarely(a(great(idea(for(a(deep(mul/player(game.(The(people(most(interested(would(be(those(who(played(your(original(game(the(longest,(and(are(s/ll(playing,(and(it(will(be(difficult(and(disrup/ve(to(move(them(over.((You’re(likely(to(end(up(with(a(fragmented(user(base,(and(unless(your(game(is(truly(massive(you’re(beYer(off(with(one(game,(one(userbase.(Both(Everquest(and(Everquest(II(are(s/ll(maintained,(but(Everquest(III(has(never(been(made.((Zynga(shut(down(Cityville(2(but(le[(the(original(up,(and(original(Farmville,(while(smaller(than(Farmville(II,(is(s/ll(in(the(top(10(charts.((

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There’s(o[en(pressure(for(revenue(this(quarter,(this(month,(this(week.(Companies(and(employees(are(o[en(rewarded(for(hibng(sales(targets(now,(some/mes(for(arbitrary(budget(reason,(some/mes(to(show(growth(in(advance(of(a(funding(round,(exit,(or(earnings(announcement,(and(some/mes(because(you(need(to(make(payroll.( On existing buyers sales events are generally destructive. Demand is fairly inelastic, and you’re probably just moving future sales forward at a lower price and simultaneously devaluing what you sell and training buyers to wait to get a discount. With frequent sales you can get into a vicious cycle where you spike sales, followed by a big drop, which causes you to do a sale to get more revenue, followed by another drop. Sales and discounts are best for groups where demand is more elastic: nonbuyers and lapsed buyers. If you focus on short-term metrics you’re going to get short-term behavior. I’m not sure what the best long-term stats should be, but as industry we should start figuring them out.

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This is about how you think about your business.

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