Building for a Climate Change

Building for a Changing Climate — Peter F. Smith246X189mm + 3mm (bleed) + 3mm (board allowance) + 15mm (to go under the endpapers) on each outside edge – Spine - 14mmISBN 978-1-84407-735-9

Peter F. Smith

BUILDING FOR ACHANGING CLIMATEThe Challenge For Construction, Planning And Energy

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‘Whatamountstoarevolutioninbuildingdesignandconstructionisneededtoadapttohighertemperatures and climate extremes; also to ensure much higher energy efficiency. PeterSmithnotonlyurgestheneedforchangebut,fromhiswideknowledgeandexperience,tellsushowtochange.Anyoneconnectedwithbuildingswillfindthisbookaninvaluablemineofinformation.’SirJohnHoughtonFRS,formerco-chair,IPCCWorkingGroup1andformerheadoftheMeteorologicalOffice

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There is now a practically universal consensus that our climate is changing rapidly, and as a direct result of human activities. While there is extensive debate about what we can do to mitigate the damage we are causing, it is becoming increasingly clear that a large part of our resources will have to be directed towards adapting to new climatic conditions, with talk of survivability replacing sustainability as the new and most pressing priority. Nowhere is this more evident than in the built environment – the stage on which our most important interactions with climatic conditions are played out.

In this frank yet pervasively positive book, sustainable architecture guru Peter Smith lays out his vision of how things are likely to change, and what those concerned with the planning, design and construction of the places we live and work can and must do to avert the worst impacts. Beginning with the background to the science and discussion of

the widely feared graver risks not addressed by the politically driven IPCC reports, he moves on to examine the challenges we will face and to propose practical responses based on real-world experiences and case studies taking in flood and severe weather protection, energy-efficient retrofitting, distributed power generation and the potential for affordable zero carbon homes. He ends with a wider discussion of options for future energy provision. This is a provocative, persuasive and – crucially – practical read for anyone concerned with the measures we must take now to ensure a climate-proofed future for humanity.

Peter F. Smith is Special Professor in Sustainable Energy, University of Nottingham, and former Vice President of the RIBA for Sustainable Development. He is the author of many books on architecture and the environment, including Sustainability at the Cutting Edge (Architectural Press/Elsevier, 2007).

BUILDING FOR ACHANGING CLIMATE

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BUILDING FOR ACHANGING CLIMATE

THE CHALLENGE FOR CONSTRUCTION,PLANNING AND ENERGY

Peter F. Smith

publ ishing for a sustainable future

London • Sterling, VA

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First published by Earthscan in the UK and USA in 2010

Copyright © Professor Peter F. Smith 2010

All rights reserved

ISBN: 978-1-84407-735-9

Typeset by Domex e-Data Pvt. Ltd.Cover design by Rob Watts

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Smith, Peter F. (Peter Frederick), 1930-Building for a changing climate: the challenge for construction, planning and energy / Peter F. Smith. –

1st ed.p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.ISBN 978-1-84407-735-9 (hardback)1. City planning–Environmental aspects. 2. Housing–Environmental aspects. 3. Climatic changes.

4. Sustainable urban development. I. Title. HT166.S588 2009720'.47–dc22

2009021376

At Earthscan we strive to minimize our environmental impacts and carbon footprint through reducingwaste, recycling and offsetting our CO2 emissions, including those created through publication of thisbook. For more details of our environmental policy, see www.earthscan.co.uk.

This book was printed in the UK by TJ International, an ISO 14001 accredited company. The paper used is FSCcertified and the inks are vegetable based.

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ContentsList of Figures and Tables viIntroduction xi Acknowledgements xiiiList of Acronyms and Abbreviations xiv

1 Prepare for Four Degrees 1

2 Probable Future Impacts of Climate Change 10

3 The UN Carbon Trading Mechanism 22

4 Setting the Pace Towards Climate-proof Housing 27

5 Future-proof Housing 41

6 Building-integrated Solar Electricity 53

7 Sun, Earth,Wind and Water 60

8 Eco-towns: Opportunity or Oxymoron? 71

9 The Housing Inheritance 83

10 Non-domestic Buildings 93

11 Community Buildings 109

12 Conventional Energy 118

13 Coal: Black Gold or Black Hole? 132

14 Filling the Gap: Utility-scale Renewables 137

15 The Age Beyond Oil 154

16 The Thread of Hope 166

References 171Index 175

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List of Figures and TablesFigures1.1 Extent of Arctic sea ice on 26 August 2008 compared with the

average extent 1979–2000 21.2 Wilkins ice shelf undergoing calving 31.3 Potential for abrupt changes compared with linear IPCC forecast 31.4 Tyndall tipping points 41.5 Encroaching desert near Dunhuang, Southern China 82.1 Future storm activity in Europe if CO2 emissions rise unabated 122.2 Areas of Norfolk showing the percentage of land at risk of becoming unavailable for

agriculture by 2050 162.3 Risk from storm surges in northwest Europe to 2080 172.4 River Thames basin: the area below the 5m contour is subject to storm surge

risk, making a compelling case for estuary barrages 182.5 Area of land and size of population under threat from a 1m sea level rise 182.6 Hours when heat related discomfort temperature is exceeded in homes and offices 194.1 PassivHaus, Darmstadt, Germany 1990 284.2 PassivHaus characteristics 284.3 The ‘Autonomous House’ Southwell, rear view with 2.2kW photovoltaic cell array 294.4 Roof, wall and floor section of the Autonomous House 294.5 Passive solar houses 1998, Hockerton Self-Sufficient Housing Project south

elevation and conservatories, exterior 304.6 Passive solar houses 1998, Hockerton Self-Sufficient Housing Project

conservatories, interior 314.7 Solar House, Freiburg, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Research 314.8 Sonnerschiff Energy Plus development 324.9 Solar Village (Solarsiedlung), Freiburg 324.10 Eco-homes in Upton, Northampton, UK 334.11 RuralZed homes in Upton, Northampton, UK 344.12 Osborne House at BRE with lightweight construction and low thermal mass 364.13 Wall sections, Osborne House 364.14 Hanson 2,Architects T P Bennett 374.15 Hanson 2, first floor living room 374.16 Zero Carbon house by Barratt Homes and Architects Gaunt Francis 374.17 DCLG Case Study 4 Mid-Street, South Nutfield, Surrey, UK 384.18 BASF PassivHaus, Nottingham University 394.19 Stoneguard House, Nottingham University 404.20 Concrete filled insulated formwork to the ground floor 404.21 Steel frame, Stoneguard house 405.1 Folding sliding shutters 44

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5.2 Passive solar house for Dr and Mrs Alan Wood, Sheffield, UK 465.3 Storm ditch between rows of houses, Upton, Northampton, UK 475.4 Steel frame construction with open ground floor 485.5 Suggested construction details of near-climate-proof houses including

alternative solid wall construction à la Continental practice 495.6 Desiccant wheel and thermal wheel dehumidification and cooling 516.1 European solar radiation map in GJ/m2/year 546.2 City comparisons of solar radiation (kWh/m2/year); 30–36° south-tilted roofs,

flat roofs, and 30° tilted roofs east or west on south-facing facades 556.3 PV efficiency according to angle and orientation 566.4 ‘Popcorn-ball’ clusters comprising grains 15 nanometres across 576.5 SUNRGI XCPV system of concentrated solar cells with proprietary

method of cooling the cells 576.6 CIS Tower, Manchester, with retrofitted PVs 597.1 Solar power outputs from 3m2 solar thermal panels 617.2 Diagram of the CSHPSS system, Friedrichshafen, Germany 627.3 Friedrichshafen delivered energy in MWh per year 637.4 PV/thermal hybrid panels 637.5 Average summer and winter wind speeds in the UK over the period

1971–2000 at a height of 10m 657.6 Triple helix wind generator by quietrevolution (qr5) 657.7 Quietrevolution helical turbines, Fairview Homes, London Road, Croydon 667.8 Roof ridge accommodating cross-flow or axial turbines 667.9 Aeolian system for terrace housing 677.10 The Aeolian Tower 677.11 Archimedes Screw in the River Goyt at New Mills, Derbyshire 708.1 Thames Gateway main housing projects 758.2 The average individual’s contribution to annual CO2 emissions 768.3 Six degree heat island effect in London 788.4 Inversion producing a pollution dome 798.5 Extreme heat island effect, Chester, UK 798.6 Managing high temperatures on an urban scale 808.7 Masdar City,Abu Dhabi; architects Foster Associates 818.8 Street in Masdar City 819.1 Breakdown of household growth in England 1971–2026 849.2 The challenge is to shift 90 per cent of the housing stock to Energy

Performance Certificate (EPC) bands A and B 849.3 Layout of typical 19th-century terraced houses 909.4 Ubiquitous Victorian semi-detached houses, Sheffield, UK 909.5 17 Augustine Road, Camden, London 919.6 Cemetery Road flats, Sheffield, UK, 2009 929.7 Hawkridge House, London University, before refurbishment 9210.1 Energy use according to office type 9410.2 CO2 emissions according to office type 9510.3 Innovate Green Office,Thorpe Trading Estate, Leeds 96

List of Figures and Tables vii

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10.4 Innovate Green Office section 9610.5 Heelis building southeast elevation 9710.6 Heelis building site layout 9710.7 Heelis aerial view 9810.8 Heelis building: sections showing principles of the ventilation system 10010.9 Centre for Energy Efficiency in Building,Tsinghua University, Beijing 10110.10 Environmental control double skin facade, east elevation 10210.11 Energy Efficiency Centre environmental agenda 10410.12 Pujiang Intelligence Valley, Business Centre, Shanghai, China 10510.13 Intelligence Valley Phase One 10510.14 Diagrammatic office section with plenum facade and air handling unit (AHU) detail 10611.1 Jubilee Wharf, Penryn, Cornwall, UK 11011.2 Jubilee Wharf, environmental credentials 11011.3 Ground source heat pumps plant room, Churchill Hospital, Oxford 11111.4 St Francis of Assisi school: interior with translucent ethylene tetrafluoroethylene roof 11211.5 North–south section of St Francis of Assisi school 11311.6 Howe Dell Primary School, southern elevation 11411.7 Pipe network beneath the school playground 11411.8 Thermal banks beneath the school 11511.9 Sharrow Combined Infant and Junior School, Sheffield 11612.1 World Energy Council worst case Business as Usual scenario 11912.2 IEA assessment of energy rise to 2030 by region 11912.3 The Hubbert peak 12012.4 Peak oil and gas: after ASPO 12012.5 Peak oil, breakdown by nation 12112.6 Potential for oil wars 12112.7 Fossil fuels to be avoided, mostly coal (hatched) 12212.8 Tyndall recommended CO2 90 per cent abatement rate for the UK 12312.9 Implication for carbon neutral energy for the UK 12312.10 Diagram of the EPR reactor building 12712.11 Efficiency savings in the Westinghouse AP1000 12812.12 Graphic of the HiPER facility at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory 12913.1 World coal reserves to 2100 13313.2 Estimated increase in greenhouse gases with coal to liquids (CTL) 13514.1 Energy consumption projections to 2020 by fuel 13814.2 World Energy Council forecast of global primary energy use to 2100 13914.3 World energy use in 2005 and annual renewables potential with current

technologies 13914.4 Pumped storage using natural contours 14214.5 Principle of the Vanadium Flow Battery 14314.6 Concentrated solar power principle 14414.7 PS10 Solar Power Tower, Sanlúcar la Mayor, near Seville 14514.8 Heliostats for solar thermal electricity, California 14514.9 Parabolic reflectors in the Mojave Desert, US 14614.10 Fresnel solar thermal electricity, southern Spain 146

viii Building for a Changing Climate

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List of Figures and Tables ix

14.11 Inflatable solar PV concentrator 14714.12 Prefabricated barrage proposal for the Severn Estuary 14814.13 Tidal energy bridge or ‘tidal fence’ with vertical rotors 14914.14 The Gorlov helical rotor 15014.15 Northwest coastal impoundment proposal UK 15014.16 OpenHydro on test 15114.17 OpenHydro in operation on the seabed 15114.18 A VIVACE layout 15114.19 Vivace: induced opposing vibrations producing oscillation 15214.20 Principle of the OTEC system 15215.1 Basic Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell 15515.2 Ceres Power 1kW SOFC unit 15615.3 Metal hydride storage containers in the Protium Project 15715.4 Honda FCX Clarity 15915.5 GM Volt concept model 16015.6 Opel/Vauxhall Ampera 16115.7 The ‘Ross Barlow’ fuel cell powered narrow boat 16416.1 Cost versus discount rate, the Severn Barrage 168

Tables4.1 Star ratings for mandatory minimum standards in CO2 emissions

under the Code for Sustainable Homes representing improvements over the Building Regulations Part L 34

4.2 Summary of the environmental categories and issues of the Code for Sustainable Homes 35

14.1 Global energy consumption by source 137

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IntroductionThis book is about a scenario for the future that we hope will not happen, namely a rise in averageglobal temperature of 4°C, within the century, with all which that implies. However, the book is notbased on the premise that such a temperature rise is inevitable, although there is increasing concernamong climate scientists that it is more than possible. Here the argument is that while we should hopefor the best, we should prepare for the worst.

There is growing scientific agreement that the impacts of climate change predicted in theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report of 2007 were seriously underestimated. InFebruary 2009 Dr Chris Field, co-chair of the IPCC made this assertion: ‘We now have data showingthat, from 2000 to 2007, greenhouse gases increased far more rapidly that we expected, primarily becausedeveloping countries, like China and India, saw a huge upsurge in electricity power generation, almostall of it based on coal’ (quoted by Ian Sample in the Guardian 16 February 2009 ‘The tropics on fire:scientists’ grim vision of global warming’).

The purpose of the book is to explore the implications for buildings and cities based on theassumption that the world will continue on the path of the ‘high emissions scenario (HES)’, what usedto be called ‘Business as Usual (BaU)’. Coupled with climate change is the fact that the ratio betweenthe production of oil and the rate of demand has reached its peak, soon to be followed by gas. So securityof energy is also a matter of great importance, not least because the built environment is the sectorresponsible for the highest emissions of carbon dioxide.

The UK government in particular is constantly asserting that changes in personal behaviour will benecessary if national CO2 emissions targets are going to be achieved.An assumption behind the book isthat voluntary actions will not be nearly enough to halt the advance of climate change. Societal changesare desirable but unenforceable. Governments may rely on market forces to bring about change, butthese are unpredictable and driven by the profit motive. It is the unrestrained appetite for profit that has largely created the current economic predicament; it is unwise to assume it will get us out of it.

Only governments can bring about the fundamental changes that the times require, through acombination of incentives and regulations. Planning laws (not guidance notes), stiff and enforceablebuilding regulations and direct taxes on carbon, independent of market forces, are the only way to makeradical change happen. Governments may eventually come round to this view, but it will probably betoo late to prevent catastrophic climate impacts.

The underlying theme of the book is that, given the cluster of uncertainties that darken the future,the precautionary principle dictates that we should be preparing now for a more hostile environmentand change building practices accordingly.Also, ultimately carbon-free energy will not just be an optionbut a necessity. As Nicholas Stern stated in his forceful review, The Economics of Climate Change (2006)investing now in adapting to future climate impacts will be considerably more cost-effective than takingemergency measures after the event. Buildings are a long-term investment, especially housing, and so hiswarning is especially relevant to this sector.

The book is aimed at an international readership.Where UK examples are cited, it is because theyhave implications for many developed and developing nations.The text falls into three sections.The firstthree chapters consider the reasons why there should be concern about the future effects of climatechange since the world shows little inclination to deviate from the path of BaU. In the 2007 report ofthe IPCC BaU has been superseded by the less blame-loaded HES. First there is a brief survey of thescientific evidence of global warming across a spectrum of indicators. From this evidence it follows thatthere will be impacts, the severity of which will depend on the level and pace at which CO2 emissionsare stabilized in the atmosphere.

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xii Building for a Changing Climate

The second part, which constitutes the main body of the book, considers the implications of theHES scenario for buildings ranging from existing and new-build housing to non-domestic buildings.Since the top rating under the UK Code for Sustainable Homes assumes the inclusion of integrated oronsite renewable energy, this also receives consideration.The outlook for non-domestic buildings roundsoff this section.

In the third section the focus is on energy, starting with the outlook for conventional fuels and thespeculations about the levels of reserves of oil and gas. Whilst small-scale renewable technologies arefeatured earlier, this part considers the potential for utility or grid-scale renewable energy within theenergy mix.

To finish, there is a discussion about the prospects for stemming the progress of global warming bymeans of geo-engineering: mirrors or ‘pies’ in the sky?

Peter F. Smith October, 2009

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AcknowledgementsI would like to thank the following: Feilden Clegg Bradley for providing images and data for the HeelisBuilding; CABE for images of St Francis of Assisi School, Liverpool; Zedfactory for images of the JubileeWharf complex, Penryn, Cornwall; Norman Foster Architects for images of Masdar; Professor DavidMackay for permission to reproduce wind speed diagram for the UK; Dr Robin Curtis of EarthEnergyLtd for permission to use heat pump data for the Churchill Hospital; and Xiaochun Xing for images anddata from China.

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List of Acronyms andAbbreviationsABC Algae Biofuels Challenge (Carbon Trust)ABI Association of British InsurersAC alternating currentACH air changes per houseAHU air handling unitASHP air source heat pumpASPO Association for the Study of Peak OilBAS British Antarctic SurveyBaU Business as UsualBIPV building integrated photovoltaicsBMS building management systemBRE (trading name of the) Building Research EstablishmentBREEAM BRE Environmental Assessment MethodBSF Building Schools for the FutureCABE Commission for Architecture and the Built EnvironmentCBI Commercial Buildings InitiativeCCS carbon capture and storageCDM Clean Development MechanismCdTe cadmium telluride (solar cell technology)CEO chief executive officerCER certified emissions reductionCERT Carbon Emissions Reduction TargetCHP combined heat and powerCIBSE Chartered Institution of Building Services EngineersCIGS copper, indium, gallium and selenium (solar cell technology)CO2e CO2 equivalentComare Committee on Medical Aspects of Radiation in the EnvironmentCOP co-efficient of performanceCSH Code for Sustainable HomesCSHPSS central solar heating plants for seasonal storagecSi crystalline siliconCSP concentrated solar powerCTL coal to liquidsDC direct currentDCLG Department for Communities and Local GovernmentDCSF Department for Children Schools and FamiliesDECC Department of Energy and Climate ChangeDefra Department for Environment, Food and Rural AffairsDoE Department of Energy (US)DSY Design Summer Year

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List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xv

DfT Department for TransportEESoP Energy Efficiency Standards of PerformanceENSO El Niño Southern OscillationEPC Energy Performance CertificateEPR Evolutionary Power ReactorEPSRC Engineering and Physical Sciences Research CouncilE-REV extended range electric vehicleESCO energy service companyEST Energy Saving TrustETS Emissions Trading Scheme (Europe)EU European UnionFIT feed-in tariffGDP gross domestic productGIS Greenland ice sheetGM General MotorsGNEP Global Nuclear Energy PartnershipGSHP ground source heat pumpGtoe gigatonne of oil equivalentHES high emissions scenarioHHP Hockerton Housing Project (Nottinghamshire)HiPER High Power Laser Energy ResearchHTT hard to treatHVDC high voltage direct currentICE internal combustion engineIEA International Energy AgencyIGCC integrated gasification combined cycleIHT interseasonal heat transferIIIG+ third generationIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeISE Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer, Germany)IT information technologyLA local authorityLZC low or zero carbonMOD Ministry of Defencempg miles per gallonMtoe million tonnes of oil equivalentNAS National Academy of Science (US)NGO non-governmental organizationNHS National Health ServiceNIA Nuclear Industry AssociationNREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory (US)OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOPEC Organization of Oil Exporting CountriesOTEC ocean thermal energy conversionPCMs phase change materialsPEM Proton Exchange Membrane (or Polymer Electrolyte Membrane)PG&EC Pacific Gas and Electric Company (US)PIV Pujiang Intelligence ValleyPOE post occupancy evaluation

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xvi Building for a Changing Climate

ppm parts per millionppmv parts per million by volumePPS Planning Policy StatementPRT personal rapid transitPV photovoltaic (cell)PVT PV/thermalPWR pressurized water reactorRIBA Royal Institute of British ArchitectsRSPB Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (UK)SAP Standard Assessment ProcedureSIPS structural insulated panelsSME small to medium-sized enterprisesSMR small to medium sized reactorSOFC solid oxide fuel cellSRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC)SSTAR small, sealed transportable, autonomous reactorTCPA Town and Country Planning AssociationTIM transparent insulation materialTREC Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy CooperationUEA University of East AngliaUGC underground gasification of coalUHI urban heat island UKCIP UK Climate Impacts ProgrammeUK-GBC United Kingdom Green Building CouncilVHC volumetric heat capacityVIVACE vortex induced vibrations for aquatic clean energyVLS-PV very large-scale photovoltaic systemsVOC volatile organic compoundWAM West African monsoonWEC World Energy CouncilWWF World Wide Fund for NatureZEH ‘zero-energy’ homes

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The UK government issued a report in summer2008 entitled: Adapting to Climate Change inEngland: A Framework for Action (Defra).This is aclear statement of the perceived scope ofgovernment responsibility in this matter. In hisIntroduction the Secretary of State for theEnvironment, Hilary Benn, conceded that:

Even with concerted international action now,we are committed to continued global warmingfor decades to come.To avoid dangerous climatechange we must work, internationally and athome, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Evenso, we will have to adapt to a warmer climatein the UK with more extreme events includingheat waves, storms and floods and more gradualchanges, such as the pattern of the seasons.

(Defra, 2008a, pp4–5)

The report later explains the role of governmentwhich is:

Raising awareness of changing climate …will encourage people to adapt their behaviourto reduce the potential costs as well takeadvantage of the opportunities.

(Defra, 2008a, p20)

Finally the report concedes that ‘Governmentshave a role to play in making adaptation happen,starting now and providing both policy guidanceand economic and institutional support to theprivate sector and civil society’ (Defra, 2008a, p8).In other words, ‘over to you’.

Getting down to the detail, the report’saction plan is divided into two phases. Theobjectives of phase 1 are:

• develop a more robust and comprehensiveevidence base about the impacts andconsequences of climate change in the UK;

• raise awareness of the need to take actionnow and help others to take action;

• measure success and take steps to ensureeffective delivery;

• work across government at a national,regional and local level to embed adaptationinto Government policies, programmes andsystems.

In terms of the first objective, there is alreadyenough evidence to gauge the impacts that willaffect society, in particular urban society. TheFourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishedbetween February and April 2007 contains datathat should provide incentives to all concernedwith the built environment to raise their sights to meet the extraordinary challenges that lie in wait as climate changes. However, since itspublication, the IPCC report has come under somecriticism.

The Defra document used the IPCC reportas the framework for its adaptive strategies.Theproblem with the IPCC report is that the cut-offdate for its evidence base was the end of 2004.Since then, there has been a considerableaccumulation of scientific evidence that globalwarming and climate change have entered a newand more vigorous phase since 2004. This hascaused scientists to dispute some of the keyfindings of the report.To understand why this isimportant to all concerned with adaptationstrategies for buildings, it is worth summarizingthe various divergences from the IPCC.

1

Prepare for Four Degrees

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First, the IPCC Report has been criticized forunderstating projections of climate impacts, notleast by Dr Chris Field co-chair of the IPCC anddirector of global ecology at the US CarnegieInstitute. In an address to the American Associationfor the Advancement of Science he asserted thatthe IPCC report of 2007 substantiallyunderestimated the severity of global warmingover the rest of the century. ‘We now have datashowing that, from 2000 to 2007,greenhouse gasesincreased far more rapidly than we expected,primarily because developing countries, like Chinaand India, saw a huge upsurge in electric powergeneration, almost all of it based on coal’ (reportedin the Guardian, 16 February 2009).

This has been endorsed by James Hansen(Hansen et al, 2007), director of the NASAGoddard Space Institute, who believes that theIPCC prediction of a maximum sea level rise by2100 of 0.59m to ‘be dangerously conservative’.Reasons include the fact that ice loss from

Greenland has tripled since 2004, making theprospect of catastrophic collapse of the ice sheetwithin the century a real possibility. The IPCCassumed only melting by direct solar radiation,whereas melt water is almost certainly plungingto the base of the ice through massive holes ormoulins which have opened up across the icesheet. This would help lubricate and speed upthe passage of the ice sheet to the sea.

According to Dr Timothy Lenton (2007) thetipping point element with the least uncertaintyregarding its irreversible melting is the Greenlandice sheet (GIS). Above a local temperatureincrease of 3°C, the GIS goes into mass melt andpossible disappearance. As the Arctic is warmingat about three times the global average, thecorresponding global average is 1–2°C.

This rate of warming has resulted in theArctic sea ice contracting more extensively in2008 than in any previous year.A satellite imagerecorded on 26 August 2008 shows the extent of

2 Building for a Changing Climate

Source: Image: Derived from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center

Figure 1.1 Extent of Arctic sea ice on 26 August 2008 compared with the average extent 1979–2000

Normal iceboundary

Arctic SeaIce

Greenland

2008iceboundary


summer melt compared with the average meltbetween 1979 and 2000 (Figure 1.1).

As further evidence of impacts, 2007 hasrevealed the largest reduction in the thickness ofwinter ice since records began in the early 1990s.

Whilst the 2007 IPCC report considered thatlate summer Arctic ice would not completelydisappear until the end of the century, the latestscientific opinion is that it could disappear in latesummer as soon as three to five years hence(Guardian, 25 November 2008, p27). Oneconsequence of this melt rate is that an increasingarea of water is becoming exposed and absorbingsolar radiation. According to recent research, theextra warming due to sea ice melt could extendfor 1000 miles inland. This would account formost of the area subject to permafrost.The Arcticpermafrost contains twice as much carbon as theentire global atmosphere (ref Geophysical ResearchLetters, Guardian, 25 November 2008, p27). Themost alarming aspect of this finding is that theeffect of melting permafrost is not consideredwithin global climate models, so is likely to bethe elephant in the room.

The latest evidence of climate change fromAntarctica has come from the British AntarcticSurvey (BAS). It reported in 2008 that themassive Wilkins ice shelf is breaking off fromthe Antarctic Peninsular.The 6180 square milesof the shelf is ‘hanging by a thread’ according toJim Elliott of the BAS. The importance of iceshelves is that they act as buttresses supporting

the land-based ice.This part of the Antarctic icesheet has the least support from ice shelves.When it breaks away completely, this will bethe seventh major ice shelf in this region tocollapse. In January 2009 Dr David Vaughan ofthe BAS visited the ice shelf ‘to see its finaldeath throes’. He reported that ‘the ice sheetholding the shelf in place is now at its thinnestpoint 500m wide. This could snap off at anymoment’ (Figure 1.2).

These are amongst the reasons why theTyndall Centre for Climate Change Researchhas taken issue with the IPCC over its predictionthat global warming will produce change on anincremental basis or straight line graph. Tyndallhas produced an alternative graph linkingtemperature change to sharp and severe impactsas ice sheets melt; Figure 1.3 illustrates both

Prepare for Four Degrees 3

Source: Photo Jim Elliott, BAS

Figure 1.2 Wilkins ice shelf undergoing calving

Source: Lenton et al, 2006

Figure 1.3 Potential for abrupt changes compared with linear IPCC forecast

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2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000

GreenlandIPCC linear modelS

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scenarioa. The IPCC has since come to acceptthe validity of Tyndall’s scenario.

The Tyndall Centre has produced a timetableof suggested tipping points for various climatechange impacts such as the melting of Greenlandice sheet which, it indicates, is underway already(Figure 1.4).

The idea that climate changes could beabrupt has also received endorsement fromproxy evidence from the Arctic. This relates tothe Younger Dryas cold period, which lasted~1300 years and ended abruptly about 11,500years ago. Samples from insects and plants of theperiod indicate that the end of this cold episodewas dramatic. This has been reinforced by icecores that show that there was an abrupt changewhen the temperature rose around 5°C in ~3years. This is just one example of many sharpchanges revealed in the ice core evidence andoffers little room for confidence that such achange will not happen in the near future for thereasons outlined by James Hansen above.

Inevitable warmingHansen and colleagues (Hansen et al, 2007)suggested that the Earth climate system is abouttwice as sensitive to CO2 pollution than suggestedin the IPCC century-long projection.A conclusionthat followed is that there are already enoughgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere to cause 2°Cof warming. If true, this means the world iscommitted to a level of warming that wouldproduce ‘dangerous climate impacts’.The team hasconcluded that ‘if humanity wishes to preserve aplanet similar to the one in which civilisationdeveloped and to which life on Earth is adapted …CO2 will need to be reduced from its current385ppm to, at most, 350ppm’. They suggest thatthis can only be achieved by terminating theburning of coal by 2030 and ‘aggressively’ cuttingatmospheric CO2 by the planting of tropical forestsand via agricultural soils.

John Holdren, president of the AmericanAssociation for the Advancement of Science


Source: Lenton, 2007

Figure 1.4 Tyndall tipping points


and appointed to a key post in the ObamaAdministration,has added weight to the argument:‘if the current pace of change continued, acatastrophic sea level rise of 4m (13ft) this centurywas within the realm of possibility’ (BBCinterview,August 2006).

Optimism over gains in energyefficiencyA further problem with the IPCC report hasbeen explained by the UK Climate ImpactsProgramme (UKCIP) in a 2008 paper in Natureby Pielke, Wigley and Green. This paper claimsthat the technological challenge required tostabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations hasbeen underestimated by the IPCC. In particularthe IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) makes its calculations on the assumptionthat there will be much greater energy efficiencygains than is realistic, thereby understating thenecessary emissions reduction target.

Pielke et al argue that the IPCC SRESscenarios are already inconsistent in the short-term (2000–2010) with the recent evolution ofglobal energy intensity and carbon intensity.Dramatic changes in the global economy (Chinaand India) are in stark contrast to the near-futureIPCC SRES. This leads Pielke et al (2008) ‘toconclude that enormous advances in energytechnology will be needed to stabiliseatmospheric CO2 concentrations’.

The amended Stern ReportA further blow to the IPCC was administered byNicholas Stern. His UK government sponsoredreport, known as the Stern Review on the Economicsof Climate Change was based on IPCC data. Sinceits publication in 2006, Stern has admitted that heunderestimated the threat posed by climatechange as posited by the IPCC. He said:

emissions are growing much faster than wethought; the absorptive capacity of the Earthis less than we’d thought; the risks ofgreenhouse gases are potentially much bigger

than more cautious estimates; the speed ofclimate change seems to be faster.

(Stern, 2009, p26)

Stern concludes: ‘Last October [2007] scientistswarned that global warming will be “strongerthan expected and sooner than expected” afternew analysis showed carbon dioxide isaccumulating in the atmosphere much morequickly than expected’ (2006, p26). The SternReview recommended that greenhouse gasesshould be stabilized at between 450 and 550ppmof CO2e (equivalent). In January 2009 Sternamended the limit to 500ppm.

Scientists tend to refer solely to carbon dioxidesince it is the gas that is the dominant driver ofglobal warming and is the one that is most readilyassociated with human activity. It comprisesaround two-thirds of all greenhouse gases. On theother hand, politicians and economists often lumptogether all greenhouse gases and then refer totheir CO2 equivalent (CO2e).

This means that the call to stabilize at500ppm CO2e equates to 333ppm CO2, which,coincidentally, is close to the limit set by JamesHansen (above) if the world is to achieve climatestability at a tolerable level.The latest concentrationis 387ppm!

This view was reinforced by the RoyalSociety. On the 1 September 2008 it published aseries of scientific papers in Philosophical TransactionsA on the topic of geo-engineering as a way ofcountering global warming.This will feature in theclosing chapter. At this point it is worth citing itsauthors on the reasons for embarking on this study,which are: ‘There is increasingly the sense thatgovernments are failing to come to grips with theurgency of setting in place measures that willassuredly lead to our planet reaching a safeequilibrium.’ In a paper by Alice Bows and KevinAnderson (Anderson and Bows, 2008), they state:‘politicians have significantly underestimated thescale of the climate challenge’. For example, ‘thisyear’s G8 pledge to cut global emissions by 50% by2050 in an effort to limit global warming to 2°C,has no scientific basis and could lead to“dangerously misguided” policies’.

Furthermore, the authors cast doubt on therealistic chances of stabilizing carbon emissions



at 450ppm.They assert that emissions are risingat such a rate that they would have to peak by2015 and then decrease by 6.5 per cent per yearfor CO2 to stabilize at 450ppm.This might limitthe temperature rise to 2°C.

From cause to effectA further cause for concern is implicit inHansen’s claim that the Earth is alreadycommitted to an average 2°C temperature rise(Hansen et al, 2007).This is due to the time lagfactor. In a massive geophysical system like theEarth and its atmosphere, which is subject tochange like global warming, there is aninevitable time lag between causes and effects.Adistinction has to be made between globalheating and global warming. The former is theenergy input from solar radiation. Globalwarming is the result of the solar radiation beingreflected back into space and heating theatmosphere in the process, thanks mainly to the‘insulation’ effect of greenhouse gases.

According to David Wasdell, director of theMeridian Programme, there is a time delaybetween of perhaps 50 years before the full effectsare experienced (Wadsell, 2006). According toJames Hansen, about 30 per cent of the effectmay be experienced in the first few years.

The implication of this is that we arecurrently experiencing the effects of greenhouseconcentrations from the 1960s–1970s. Wasdellconjectures that if greenhouse gases were to bestabilized now, the world would still face aquadrupling of temperature change against thepresent. He speculates: ‘If storm energy doubledbetween 1997 and 2000 on an increase intemperature of only 0.7°C, then what will thestorm energy become when we quadruple thattemperature rise? The cause of such a rise isalready in the system. Dangerous climate changeis now unavoidable.’

World CO2 emissions recordDespite international undertakings by thedeveloped countries, CO2 emissions show little

sign of reducing. In fact carbon emissions fromfossil fuels have grown by 22 per cent since2000. During this decade the US contributed~4 per cent growth and the EU ~3 per cent.India’s emissions grew by 8 per cent and China’sby 57 per cent. Fossil fuels accounted for 74 percent of all CO2 and ~57 per cent of allgreenhouse gases. China’s emissions from fossilfuels exceeded those of the US in 2008. It isextremely unlikely that the West would haveeither the practical or moral authority topersuade China to cut back significantly on its6–10 per cent annual economic growth rate. So,on this count alone, CO2 atmosphericconcentration is set to rise.

Things are not improved by a report inJanuary 2009 by Professor Kitack Lee of thePohang University of Science and Technology,which confirmed the prediction that warmeroceans would be less able to absorb CO2 (Lee,2009). Measurements of the gas content of theSea of Japan have shown a sudden and dramaticcollapse in its rate of absorption by sea water.The research revealed that the CO2 dissolved inthe sea between 1999 and 2007 was only halfthat recorded between 1992 and 1999.

The ultimate scenarioAccording to Professor Bob Watson, chiefscientist at Defra, the UK should be planningnow for the effects of a global averagetemperature rise of 4°C above the pre-industrial level (Watson, 2008). In this he wassupported by Sir David King, formergovernment chief scientist, on the basis that,even with a comprehensive world deal to keepCO2 levels in the atmosphere below 450ppmv(parts per million by volume) there was a 50 percent chance that temperatures would exceed2°C, the figure linked to the level of 450ppm.There was even a 20 per cent chance that itwould exceed 3.5°C. King advises that ‘even ifwe get the best possible global agreement toreduce greenhouse gases, on any rational basisyou should be preparing for a 20% risk, so Ithink Bob Watson is right to put the figure at 4 degrees’.



The Stern Report goes even further. It states:

The latest science suggests that the Earth’saverage temperature will rise by even more than5 or 6 degrees C if emissions continue to growand positive feedbacks amplify the warmingeffect of greenhouse gases (for example, therelease of CO2 from soils and methane frompermafrost). This level of global temperaturewould be equivalent to the amount of warmingthat occurred between the last ice age and today.[The] effects could be catastrophic

(Stern, 2006)

and, if such predictions are correct, these effectswould be well beyond the capabilities of currentclimate models.

The 4°C scenarioThe possibility of a 4°C warmer world is notonly determined by the amount of CO2 thathuman action delivers to the atmosphere, butalso the sensitivity of the world’s climate togreenhouse gases. It also depends on the impactand timescale of tipping points. As mentioned,the Greenland ice sheet could collapse betweena 1° and 2° increase according to the TyndallCentre. Some models predict the 4° level by2100; others show it could happen by 2050.

There is a view that an average warming ofthe planet by 4°C ‘would render the planetunrecognisable from anything humans have everexperienced’ and ‘A 4°C rise could easily occur’(Vince, 2009).

Such a rise in temperature last occurred inthe Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum era55 million years ago. The average globaltemperature rose 5–6°C, which caused a rapidrelease of methane hydrates or clathates,previously ice-bound on the ocean bed. Therapid release of CO2 lead to the polar regionsbecoming tropical forests; the oceans becomingvirtually dead, having absorbed so much CO2

that they became acidic. This resulted in acatastrophic collapse of marine life. And the sealevel rose 100m above today’s level. That is theprognosis for the planet if all land-based ice melts.

Recent predictions of impactsof a 4° riseMost vulnerable to serious impacts are thetropics between the latitudes 30° north andsouth – about half the world’s surface. Much ofthis area is set to become desert. This wouldembrace most of Africa and Asia, according tothe above New Scientist article (Vince, 2009)much of central and southern US would becomeuninhabitable desert as would southern China,which is already experiencing desertification(Figure 1.5). South America would also becomebarely habitable.

On the positive side, Siberia, northernRussia, Scandinavia and Canada would have anacceptable climate with favourable conditionsfor most of the world’s subsistence crops. Evenwest Antarctica and western Greenland would behabitable.

From the energy point of view, vast areas ofdesert would be available for solar energy,especially northern Africa and the Middle East,the central US and Australia. It has been calculatedthat 110,000km2 across Jordan, Libya andMorocco could accommodate photovoltaic cellsand/or power towers to provide sufficient outputto meet 50–70 per cent of world electricitydemand. If such a project were to begin in 2010,by 2020 it could deliver 55 terawatt hours per year(Wheeler and Ummel, 2008).

A combination of temperature and sea levelrise would require the relocation of many of theworld’s greatest cities. The scenario concludesthat the migration of populations wouldnecessitate the development of high density, highrise cities in the temperate zones.

Sea levelJames Hansen, referred to earlier, considers that aCO2 concentration of 550ppm (387ppm at thetime of writing) ‘would be disastrous, certainlyleading to an ice-free planet, with sea level about80 metres higher [than today]’. Given the lack ofan international consensus about the need to haltthe rise in emissions, 550ppm is not just possiblebut probable. China, for example, will pursue



economic growth even if this means carbonemissions in the atmosphere reach 700ppm.

In the opinion of Peter Cox, celebratedclimate scientist from Exeter University,‘Climatologists tend to fall into two camps: thereare the cautious ones who say we need to cutemissions and won’t even think about highglobal temperatures; and there are the ones whotell us to run for the hills because we are alldoomed… I prefer the middle ground.We haveto accept changes are inevitable and start to adaptnow’ (quoted in Vince, 2009). That sums up theposition of this book.

In 2008 a team led by Mark Lynas examinedthree scenarios based on differing CO2

abatement performance. Even in the mostoptimistic case, Lynas concluded:

no politically plausible scenario we couldenvisage will now keep the world below thethreshold of two degrees, the official target ofboth the EU and the UK.This means thatall scenarios see the total disappearance of theArctic sea ice; spreading deserts and waterstress in the sub-tropics; extreme weather andfloods; and melting glaciers in the Andes andHimalayas. Hence the need to focus far moreon adaptation: these are impacts thathumanity is going to have to deal withwhatever happens now at the political level.

(Lynas, 2008).

These are some of the reasons why the 4°Coutcome should be taken seriously andadaptation policies adjusted accordingly. It is


Source: the author, after New Scientist

Figure 1.5 Encroaching desert near Dunhuang, Southern China


understandable but unfortunate that policydocuments are appearing based on some nowoutdated assumptions contained in the IPCCSRES scenarios. Since 2008 is the year when itis estimated that most of the Earth’s populationwill live in towns and cities, it is vital that onefocus for urgent adaptation should be the builtenvironment. The next task is to expand on

some of the expected climate impacts of thisemissions scenario with a view to offeringrecommendations about how buildings and theurban infrastructure should prepare for theseemingly inevitable. Things may now seemrelatively calm. How much better to gear upfor the future storm than bask in the calmbefore it.


Four degrees and beyond:A statement from the Met Office, 28 September, 2009

Dr Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office Hadley Centre, presented the newfindings at a special conference this month ‘4 degrees and beyond’ at Oxford University, attendedby 130 international scientists and policy specialists. It was the first to consider the globalconsequences of climate change beyond 2°C.

Dr Betts said: ‘Four degrees of warming, averaged over the globe, translates into even greater warming in many regions, along with major changes in rainfall. If greenhouse gas emissionsare not cut soon, we could see major climate changes within our own lifetimes.’

In some areas warming could be significantly higher (10 degrees or more).

• The Arctic could warm by up to 15.2°C for a high-emissions scenario, enhanced by melting ofsnow and ice causing more of the Sun's radiation to be absorbed.

• For Africa, the western and southern regions are expected to experience both large warming (up to 10°C) and drying.

• Rainfall could decrease by 20 per cent or more in some areas, although there is a spread inthe magnitude of drying. All computer models indicate reductions in rainfall over western and southern Africa, Central America, the Mediterranean and parts of coastal Australia.

• In other areas, such as India, rainfall could increase by 20 per cent or more. Higher rainfallincreases the risk of river flooding.


Storms and floodsIn the UK in 2008 the Department forEnvironment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)published a policy document entitled Adapting toClimate Change in England:A Framework for Action.

The report begins with the fact that sevenout of the ten warmest years since records beganhave occurred since 1990. Apart from the directvictims, it is the insurance community that hasborn the brunt of the consequential costs.Claims have doubled to over £6 billion between1998 and 2003. The Association of BritishInsurers (ABI) predicts that these costs will havetripled by 2050.

Economist Nicholas Stern (Stern, 2006) hasconcluded that under the high CO2 emissionsscenario (HES), formerly Business as Usual(BaU), the global loss of gross domestic product(GDP) per year will be 5–20 per cent inperpetuity. That is in parallel with rising worldpopulation. Furthermore, regardless of howsuccessful the world will be at cutting CO2, weare committed to 30–40 years of temperatureand sea level rise.There have been a number ofnotable extreme events in the last six years:

• Summer 2003: 56,000 extra deaths acrossEurope with a temperature of <35°C insoutheastern UK.

• 2004–2005: severe drought across Europe.• 2005–2006:extreme flash floods, e.g.Boscastle

(not mentioned in the Defra doc).

• 2007: unprecedented floods especially inSheffield and South Yorkshire together withGloucestershire.

• 2008: worst ever floods across the IndianState of Bihar with 100,000 hectares of land,much of it agricultural, under water and sofar costing an estimated 2000 lives.

To understand the implications for the builtenvironment, it is necessary to enter into greaterdetail regarding the principal expected impacts,such as storms. As stated above, the basis forpredictions is the CO2 HES.

Storms

Many countries have adopted the Beaufort WindForce Scale, conceived initially for seafarers, as ameasure of wind speed.The scale is divided from1 to 12, with speeds becoming a cause forconcern from force 7 (50–61kph; 31–38mph).Force 10 is a gale and force 12 a hurricane(118kph; 73mph). Force 12 corresponds tocategory 1 on the hurricane scale (below). Somecountries, beginning with China, have extendedthe scale to 17 to cater for tropical cyclones.

Severe storms

Towards the end of August 2008 a hurricanenamed Gustav gathered strength from the warmseas in its path north to the US. Wind speeds of 150mph were recorded, making it a category

2

Probable Future Impacts ofClimate Change


Probable Future Impacts of Climate Change 11

4 storm on the threshold of category 5. Thiscaused the Mayor of New Orleans to order acomplete evacuation of the city. Fortunately itsubsided to a category 1 and only inflicted aglancing blow on the city where memories ofHurricane Katrina are still raw.

Severe storms go under various names.Windspeed becomes a storm when it exceeds 39mph;at this point meteorologists give it an individualname. If the wind speed exceeds 74mph it istermed either a tropical cyclone or hurricane inthe Atlantic.The equivalent in the northwesternPacific is a typhoon and a cyclone in the IndianOcean. Hurricanes fall into five categoriesknown as the Saffir–Simpson scale:

• category 1, 74–95mph (119–153kph)• category 2, 95–110mph (154–177kph)• category 3, 111–130mph (178–209kph)• category 4, 131–155mph (210–249kph)• category 5, 156mph (250kph) and above.

In general it is the sea surface temperature (SST)that triggers hurricanes and these can begenerated when the temperature exceeds 26°C.In the summer of 2004 Florida was hit by anunprecedented four hurricanes. In Japan, tentyphoons beat the previous record by four.Then2005 was a record season for hurricanesculminating in Katrina, which decimated NewOrleans, and Rita. It seemed as though theconnection between increasing storm frequencyand intensity with global warming was thenbeyond dispute.This certainty was undermined bythe fact that 2006 was unusually quiet, generatinga flurry of theories from meteorologists.

Over the years scientists have devisedincreasingly sophisticated models of howhurricanes form.As mentioned, they need warmwater, and therefore most originate in thetropics. Global warming is responsible for highersea temperatures, which, in turn, increaseevaporation. These two factors can set up thevortex motion characteristic of such storms.Quite small increases in sea temperature can turna mere tropical disturbance into a hurricane.

In September 2008 the Texan port ofGalveston was hit by hurricane Ike, comparablein strength to Katrina. It did not receive much

publicity.Nevertheless, Ike inflicted US$21 billionof damage along the Texas coast.Three-quartersof Galveston’s buildings were flooded leading toclaims of US$2.3 billion from Federal funds. Sealevel rises and severe storms pose an increasingthreat along the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlanticcoasts, so much so that the very viability ofcoastal cities like Galveston is being questioned. Itis being argued that public money should nolonger be used to pay for the recurrent damage tovulnerable towns and cities in the face ofincreasing impacts from climate change.

In addition to the overall warming of theoceans, a third factor is involved in creatingconditions for hurricanes, the seasonal oceanpattern El Niño. This causes a warming of thetropical Pacific Ocean. It arises when there is acoupling between oceanic and atmosphericflows. In 2004–2005 El Niño was relativelyweak, which led to sunny skies and moderatewinds in the tropical Atlantic. Consequentlythere was less evaporative cooling, causing theocean to warm by only 0.2°C. El Niño hadcollapsed by the summer, minimizing wind shearin the Atlantic, thus creating favourableconditions for hurricane formation. In contrast,La Niña, which caused a cooling of the Pacific,took hold during the winter of 2005–2006.This, in turn, led to stronger trade winds in theNorth Atlantic that drew heat out of the ocean.

During the summer of 2006, El Niño beganto form again, contributing to greater wind shearin the Atlantic. In summary, lower sea surfacetemperature and unfavourable wind conditionsfundamentally changed the condition of thetropical Atlantic compared with 2004–5.

The overriding pattern is that, since 1994,the number of named storms and hurricanes inthe North Atlantic has steadily risen. The risecoincides with an increase in sea surfacetemperature in the latitude 10–20° north – thezone that spawns hurricanes. The trend is clear but now it is also obvious that El Niño and LaNiña can cause temporary wobbles in thesystem.

Northern Europe was reminded that it isnot immune to attacks from powerful tornadosby the storm that hit the French town ofHautmont near the Belgian border. In August



2008 a storm cut a swathe of destructionthrough the town causing death and injury. Itillustrated how, even in northern Europe, stormscan devastate well built houses of traditionalmasonry construction.

Between 1987 and 2003 storms hitting theUK have cost 150 lives and €5 billion in insuredlosses (ABI, 2003). By 2100 the UK is predictedto experience a 25 per cent increase in severewinter storms. The intensification trend hasalready been evident in Scotland and Irelandover the last 50 years.

Is this further evidence of climate change dueto global warming? Climate scientists havesuggested that climate change may not increasethe incidence of severe storms. In fact, numbersmay decrease.What they affirm is that there willbe more at the intense end of the scale.The reasonfor a possible decrease in numbers is becausecategory 3–5 hurricanes draw considerable heatout of the ocean, thus delaying the conditionsneeded for a continuation of the cycle.

A Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF)report discloses results of an investigation into

Increases in expected storm intensity in western Europe on the assumption that CO2 concentrations reach 771ppm by 2090 (IPCC, 2000). This would correspond

to an average global temperature rise of 3–5°C above the pre-industrial level.

Source: WWF (2006)

Figure 2.1 Future storm activity in Europe if CO2 emissions rise unabated



the potential growth in storm activity in westernand central Europe assuming the worldcontinues on the Business as Usual (BaU)pathway (WWF, 2006). This predicts that verylittle attempt will be made to cut CO2 emissionswith the result that the atmosphericconcentration will exceed 700ppm by 2100.(IPCC, 2000).

The North Atlantic is the generator ofwinter storms in western and central Europe.With CO2 rising, it is inevitable that globalheating will increase, resulting in more intensestorms as the atmosphere becomes increasinglyenergetic. The WWF report concludes that, asthe country, along with Ireland, being mostexposed to the Atlantic, the UK is likely toexperience the strongest increase in frequencyand intensity of storms. The number of severestorms experienced by the country will probablyincrease by about ten over a 30 year timescale.Maximum wind speeds could increase by up to16 per cent. The Netherlands can expect toexperience the next largest increase in stormintensity and frequency with top wind speedsincreasing by ~15 per cent. France is third in thescale of severe storm expectation (Figure 2.1).

Floods

In England in 2007, South Yorkshire,Humberside and Gloucestershire experiencedunprecedented flooding. In Sheffield the RiverDon burst its banks, inundating large areas of thecity, from the centre to the Meadowhall megashopping complex. Many businesses wereaffected and some major companies went out ofbusiness. The river’s expansion took in one of the City’s main thoroughfares including thelandmark Wicker Bridge. For Sheffield, some ofthe blame has been attributed to the fact thatextensive developments like Meadowhall haveincreased rainfall runoff as well as building orpaving over potential flood plains.

In residential areas of this region, for exampleToll Bar, numerous households were still unableto return to their homes 16 months later due toextremely slow or defective remedial work.Serious health problems have been associated

with families having to live in caravans for thislength of time.

Altogether in 2007, some 48,000 homes and7300 businesses were flooded across England.Reservoir dams came under threat from theconditions and just outside Sheffield the Ulleyreservoir was breached and a catastrophic floodwas narrowly avoided.

Across eastern England one month’s rain fellin one 24 hour period, inundating around50km2.Those affected by this catastrophe neededno persuading of the reality of climate change.Afew weeks later in Gloucestershire, the famousAbbey at Tewkesbury became an island ofsanctuary as the town was overwhelmed.

In 2008, Sir Michael Pitt published a reviewcontaining transcripts of detailed interviews withthe victims of these floods together withconsequential recommendations. In summarythese were:

• There must be a ‘step change in the qualityof flood warnings’. This would only beachieved by much closer cooperationbetween the Environment Agency and theMet Office combined with improvedmodelling of all forms of flooding. Theremust also be much greater public confidencein official information.

• The Environment Agency should widen itsbrief and local councils improve theirtechnical expertise in order to take the leadin flood management.

• The event highlighted the need for muchgreater coordination between the responsibleagencies, including those responsible forwater and power. Higher levels of protectionare needed for essential services (as wascritically demonstrated in Gloucestershire).There must be greater involvement ofprivate companies in planning to keeppeople safe in the event of a dam or reservoirfailure.

• Finally, there is much to be learnt from goodpractice abroad where people receive adviceon how to protect their families and homes.Levels of awareness must be raised througheducation and publicity programmes.



It was ironic that the UK government’s ForesightReport on Future Flooding should have beenfollowed so soon afterwards by the world’s mostexpensive of the 200 floods that occurredworldwide in 2007.

The Foresight Future Flooding Report2004

The Foresight Future Flooding Report is a detailedexamination by experts from a variety ofdisciplines, chaired by the government chiefscientist, Sir David King. It begins with anassessment of the future risks from flooding andthe cost they incur.To quote from the report:

Nearly 2 million properties in floodplainsalong rivers estuaries and coasts in the UKare potentially at risk from river or coastalflooding. Eighty thousand properties are atrisk in towns and cities from flooding causedby heavy downpours that overwhelm urbandrains – so-called ‘intra-urban flooding’. InEngland and Wales alone, over 4 millionpeople and properties valued at over £200billion are at risk.

(DTI, 2004, p12)

If average temperatures rise over 2°C above their1990 level, millions will be at risk from coastalflooding (see flood maps). At an increase of1.5–2.5°C, 20–30 per cent of all species riskextinction.

According to research by Groundsure (2008),independent environmental risk assessors, DavidKing’s estimate that almost 2.2 million homesand small businesses in the UK are at risk fromflooding is accurate. The London area has thehighest national percentage risk.

There is increasing consensus that the UKwill experience a growing number of flash floodsarising from ‘tropical storm rainfall’ such as thatwhich devastated the village of Boscastle on 16August 2004.

Rainfall

The UK is fortunate in hosting the Met OfficeHadley Centre in Exeter. It is a world class centre

for climate change research, especially as it nowpossesses one of the world’s most powerful and fastsuper computers.This enables it to run even moresophisticated climate models, allowing scientists torefine estimates of uncertainty in their predictions.For the UK, winter rainfall is expected to increaseby up to 30 per cent, especially in the south, witha consequent increase in the risk of flooding.However, summer rainfall could decrease by up to50 per cent, again mainly in the south. Theincidence of severe droughts is likely to increase,threatening water supplies.

On the global scale the Hadley Centre hasmodelled changes in precipitation from the1960–1990 average to the 2070–2100 average. Itnot only features increases in rainfall in certainareas, but also the prospect of serious drought,notably in central Africa.

Future flooding costs

According to the former government chiefscientist, Sir David King, if flood managementpolicies and expenditure remain the same as in2008, the following flood events can be expectedin the UK, based on the HES:

• the increased annual cost will be about £27billion by 2080 under the high emissionsscenario;

• the average annual damage for all of the UK assuming flood management strategiesand expenditure remain unchanged will be ~£28 billion by the 2080s;

• the average annual damage from floodingacross UK as a percentage of GDP:0.2 per cent.

Impact on infrastructure

By the 2080s the number of properties at a highrisk from intra-urban flooding under the CO2

HES will be about 380,000.The annual cost ofthe damage will be about £15 billion. At thesame time average coastal erosion is predicted tobe between 140 and 180 metres, resulting in anannual cost due to damage of £125 million.

The number of people at a high risk of riverand coastal flooding at the present time amount to



1.6 million. By 2080 under the CO2 HES of700ppm this figure rises to between 2.3 and 3.6million; 200,000 people are at risk of experiencingshort-term duration flooding today; in 2080 thisnumber could be as high as 700,000–900,000.

Summary of recommendations from theForesight Future Flooding Report

The probability of flooding increasessignificantly in the high emissions scenarios… we could reduce the average damage by25% if we achieve the low emissionsscenarios … reducing climate change will notsolve our future flooding problems by itself, butit could substantially ease them.(Foresight Future Flooding Report, p39)

The urban challenge

The risk of flooding in towns and cities, aswell as possibly being our greatest challengein the future, is also the area of greatestuncertainty.(Foresight Future Flooding Report, p40)

There are no easy options. If decisions aretaken to build in areas at risk of flooding, thecosts must be recognized and planned for.(Foresight Future Flooding Report, p41)

One strategy would be to require developers toprovide appropriate flood defences and thereforeto let market forces determine where newhousing will be located. However, against whatyardstick for flooding will developers’ tactics bejudged? Will enough provisions have been madefor future climate changes? For how long will thedeveloper be required to maintain the defences? Aperiod of 50 years has been mentioned. If thedefences are breached, who will pay? Insurersmight seek redress or the uninsured may resort toa class action. Insurance will be a majorconsideration, with renewal premiums for victimsof the 2007 floods already showing considerableinflation. The Foresight report says: ‘Governmentmight have to consider how to respond to

pressure to act as insurer of last resort if theinsurance market withdrew cover from large partsof the UK,or if there was a major flood which theinsurance market could not cover’ (p45).

Finally, there is evidence that the UK is likelyto be affected by a recently perceived change inthe route of the jet stream – the high level, highspeed jet of air that travels from east to west.Thiscould lead to higher temperatures in the summerwith more intense rainfall and flooding, togetherwith warmer, wetter winters. This has been thecase in 2007–2008. If this jet stream anomalypersists it could mean that long-term predictionswill need to be modified. ‘All adaptive strategieswill need to know the behaviour of jet streams…The key question will be: what will our climatebe thanks to jet streams? Getting it right willenable us to adapt to climate change; getting itwrong equals disaster’ (Pieper, 2008).

Sea level riseThere is still controversy over the extent of sealevel rise likely to occur towards the end of thecentury.The uncertainty is compounded by thefact that sea levels are also influenced byatmospheric pressure. In the UK this wasdemonstrated by the storm surge of 1953. Thiswas England’s first taste of a severe storm surgein modern times. It was particularly damaging tothe coasts of Kent, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk andLincolnshire. Over 600km2 were inundated, withthe loss of 307 lives.The surge was formed by acombination of extreme low pressure andpowerful winds reinforcing spring tides. Whatreally made the difference on this occasion wasthat the low pressure caused the sea level to riseby around half a metre.

Deemed to be at a particularly high risk froma sea level rise and storm surge is the low lyingland behind the Norfolk coast. In 2003 there wasa warning that a large area of grade oneagricultural land would be contaminated byflooding, with 83–100 per cent of an areaadjacent to The Wash becoming unavailable foragriculture (Figure 2.2).

The biggest landowner in the UK is theNational Trust. It manages some of the most scenic



Source: Courtesy of R. Nichols and T. Wilson, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University

Figure 2.2 Areas of Norfolk showing the percentage of land at risk of becoming unavailable for agriculture by 2050

Area of land unavailable to arable agriculture in the

2050s based on worst-

case flood changes

no response

Source: R. Nicholls and T. Wilson Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University.

0

% unavailable

1–17

17–33

33–50

50–67

67–83

83–100

coastal landscape in Britain and has come to theconclusion that some will be radically changed orlost.This is because the Trust now concedes that itis no longer possible to hold back the rising seasand prevent coastal erosion. In September 2008 itrevealed the location of ten coastal ‘hotspots’ todemonstrate that the problem of climate changethreatens about 70 sites owned by the Trust.

It is the rising cost of rectifying damage thathas forced the Trust to come to this conclusion.For example, it states that, on just one site inCornwall, it would cost about £6 million tobuild defences that would last only last 25 years.This statement by the Trust highlights thedilemma that will face many local authoritiesand governments worldwide as climate changegathers momentum, not least Greater London.

Storm surge riskIn 2005 the UK Met Office Hadley Centrecompiled an assessment of the risk of storm

surge inundation across northwest Europe by2080. It indicated that the Thames Estuary is atthe highest risk, causing Greater London to behighly vulnerable to future flooding (Figure 2.3).

When he was the government’s chiefscientist, Sir David King predicted that, if globalwarming continues at its present rate, Londonwill be submerged by rising sea levels. Hisanxiety stems from the discovery from Antarcticice cores that, during ice ages, the concentrationof CO

2 in the atmosphere was 200ppm. At thepeak of the ice age 12,000 years ago, the sea was150m below the current level. When the CO2

concentration reached 270ppm this produced awarm period and melting ice. The most recentmeasurement from the observatory at MaunaLoa (March 2008) shows the concentration to be387ppm and rising at 3ppm per year, accordingto King (reported in the London EveningStandard, 14 July 2004).

Since David King sounded his warning, theimpacts from global warming have accelerated, asmentioned in Chapter 1.This suggests that alarm



bells should be ringing in cities like London andNew York. For London, the only medium- tolong-term solution is an estuary tidal barragethat could also generate considerable amounts ofelectricity (Figure 2.4). If the present barrierwere to be overtopped by a storm surge, the costto London would be £30 billion.

At the end of the last ice age, melting icecaused the seas to rise by around 1m per century.According to the Goddard Institute, New YorkCity, the forces that led to this rate of rise ‘arecomparable to the forces we will experience thiscentury’ (Schmidt, 2008, p12). Some scientistsnow believe that a 1m rise in sea level by 2100 isan underestimate. The Tyndall Centre hasproduced a histogram predicting what thiswould mean in terms of the countries andpopulations under threat (Figure 2.5).

TemperatureWhilst uncertainties in climate changemodelling are being reduced by the power of thelatest computers, there are still those who useresidual uncertainties as a ‘wait and see’ excuse.

However, there is no doubt about the averagerise in global temperature especially over themost recent decades.

The temperature used by the Met Office tomark the start of a heatwave is 32°C. Thesummer of 1973 still holds the record for aheatwave with temperatures over 32°C beingrecorded in one or more places for 15consecutive days. (National Risk Register, UKCabinet Office 2008). In the hot summer of2003 it is estimated that the heatwave resulted in2045 excess deaths in the UK. As stated, acrossEurope the figure was said to be 56,000.

With long-life investments like homes, itmakes sense to invest now in protective measuresagainst the impacts of the high emissions climatescenario.This would be more cost-effective andefficient than resorting to remedial measuresafter the event.An example of such an ‘event’ hasbeen identified by the Town and CountryPlanning Association (TCPA):

We must adapt to the 40 degree C city.Without very strong action we will seetemperatures in many UK cities sitting above40 degree C for long periods of the summer.

Source: derived from Hadley Centre, 2005

Figure 2.3 Risk from storm surges in northwest Europe to 2080

Zone with thenext-highestrisk of stormsurge

Zone with thehighest risk ofstorm surge



Figure 2.4 River Thames basin: the area below the 5m contour is subject to storm surge risk, making acompelling case for estuary barrages

Barrage

ThamesBarrier

5 miles

River Thames flood risk area below 5m contour

Source: The Tyndall Centre

Figure 2.5 Area of land and size of population under threat from a 1m sea level rise

The social, economic, not to mentionenvironmental, implications of this will be farreaching and threatens to undermine the longterm desirability of towns and cities as placesto live and work.

(Robert Shaw, Director of Policy andProjects 2007)

It was the hot summers of 2003 and 2006 withtheir sustained high temperatures that gave aforetaste of summers that will become

commonplace. Is it being premature to suggestthat houses should be designed now for >40°Csummer days and 35°C nights? Ironically theemphasis on building regulations has been oncurtailing space heating through insulation andhigh levels of air tightness, whereas all thepointers are towards warmer winters and verymuch hotter summers. Later chapters will discussthe design implications of this probability.

According to a team led by Andreas Sterl ofthe Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute,



as climate change builds up, peak temperaturesmay rise twice as fast as average temperatures.They conclude that any point within 40° latitude of the equator will have a 10 percent chance of peaking at over 48°C eachdecade.They add that the temperatures of 2003in the forties will become commonplace (Sterl et al, 2008).

Studies by UKCIP predict that summertemperatures under the worst case scenario (WorldMarkets, IPCC high emissions scenario) willincrease 4.5° above average by 2080 in south andcentral England. In winter in the same region theywill increase 3–3.5°.

Heat island effect

Urban areas modify their local climate and theurban heat island effect (UHI) is probably themost obvious manifestation of this feature inwhich temperatures are raised beyond theirnatural level by the release of accumulated localthermal energy in major conurbations.

Towns and cities face the twin challenge ofadapting to localized micro-effects and globallydriven macro-effects. The UKCIP projectionsdemonstrate the difference between the northand south of the UK in terms of temperatureimpact. The UHI will significantly amplify thisimpact in the south with its high concentrationof urban development. Another UKCIP study

compares the percentage of hours of ‘hot’discomfort in the bedroom of a new build house(25°C) is exceeded and the 28°C discomfortexcess in offices. Figure 2.6 compares theexpected difference from the 1980s to the 2080sin London, Manchester and Edinburgh.

In summary the predicted impacts of globalwarming for the UK are:

• periods of continuous high temperature;• decreased summer rainfall leading to

droughts and water stress;• torrential rainfall incidents with severe

flooding in excess of 2007;• faster coastal erosion and related flooding;• storm surges 20 times more frequent by

2100;• sea level rise of 80mm around some parts of

the UK by 2100 (others are more pessimistic –3–4m expected if Greenland and WestAntarctica go into serious melt);

• average summer temperature rise in south ofEngland over 4.5°C by 2080;

• hotspots where several severe events impactsimultaneously, especially in flood plains,estuaries and large conurbations;

• increased pressure on critical nationalinfrastructure such as sewage and fresh watersupply with an increased risk of summerwater shortages and problems of waterquality.

Source: UKCIP (2005); Shaw et al (2007)

Figure 2.6 Hours when heat related discomfort temperature is exceeded in homes and offices

1980s

% O

ccup

ied

hou

rs >

25˚

C 35

30

25

20

10

5

02020s 2050s 2080s 1980s

% O

ccup

ied

hou

rs >

28˚

C 35

30

25

20

10

5

02020s 2050s 2080s

London Manchester Edinburgh London Manchester Edinburgh

New build house: Bedroom 1960s Office: Mid floor



In a paper ‘Squaring up to reality’ published inNature Reports – climate change, May 2008, theauthors state:

A curious optimism – the belief that we canfind a way to fully avoid all the seriousthreats illustrated above – pervades thepolitical arenas of the G8 summit and UNclimate meetings. This is a false optimism,and it is obscuring reality. The sooner werecognise this delusion, confront the challengeand implement both stringent emissions cutsand major adaptation efforts, the less will bedamage that we, and our children, will haveto live with… [W]e know that immediateinvestment in adaptation will be essential tobuffer the worst impacts.

(Parry et al, 2008)

It has been necessary to go into some detail aboutthe probabilities of future climate impacts inorder to justify the radical changes in planningand building practice that will offer protection infuture decades.There are still uncertainties aboutthe pace and extent of future climate change, butall the predictions so far have been under-estimates. As the Parry and colleagues state: ‘Wehave lost ten years talking about climate changebut not acting on it’ (Parry et al, 2008). Even ifthe world manages to improve on the CO2 highemissions scenario, buildings and their inhabitantswill still have to withstand severe climate effects.It will be far more cost-effective to build now toprotect against the worst case scenario of climatechange than retrofit buildings after the event.Action now offers a win–win opportunity.

Designing for an unknown futureIt is the view of Mark Lynas that:

no politically plausible scenario we couldenvisage will now keep the world below thedanger threshold of two degrees, the officialtarget for both the EU and UK.This meansthe total disappearance of Arctic Sea ice,

spreading deserts and water stress in the sub-tropics; extreme weather and floods… Hencethe need to focus far more on adaptation; theseare impacts that humanity is going to have todeal with whatever now happens at the policylevel… At 4°C southern England temperaturecould reach 45°C – today in Marrakesh.

(Lynas, 2008)

In a television interview James Lovelock,originator of Gaia theory, considered that globalwarming was already unstoppable (Malone andTanner, 2008). It will run its course to itscatastrophic conclusion, irrespective of reductionsin CO2 abatement. Emissions are virtually certainto cross the 450ppm CO2 tipping point, markingthe start of a new era in climate change impacts.However, it may still be possible to stabilize theconcentration in the atmosphere at a level that issurvivable for human society, albeit demandingmassive adaptive strategies. It is the secondtipping point that introduces runaway climatechange and which ushers in the doomsdayscenario. There is a view that ‘irreversible’ and‘runaway’ climate change are synonymous.After a2ºC rise feedback systems will run their courseuntil all ice has melted.That maybe a millenniumaway, so the argument for adaptation remainsvalid.Possibly the issue will be decided within thenext 25 years.Meanwhile, the priority is to createbuildings that will make life tolerable and secureagainst the predicted impacts which will beinevitable if the pace of Business as Usual issustained.

In the industrialized countries, it is in theurban environment that adaptation will have totake place as a matter of urgency.This will meanfundamental changes in the way buildings andurban spaces are designed. Up to now policyconcerning the design of buildings, as far as theenvironment is concerned, has been reactive.That is, regulations have been a response toproblems that have already occurred. This hasbeen the case in the public health sphere, and, inrecent years, it has also been the case concerningthe response to global warming and climatechange. No less an organization than the IPCChas affirmed that ‘immediate investment in



adaptation will be essential to buffer the worstimpacts’ of global warming (IPCC, 2007).

In a press interview, Keith Clarke, chiefexecutive of the engineering and designconsultancy Atkins, argues that there has to be ‘afundamental change in the way we design thebuilt environment… Just accept that climatechange is a real and significant threat to mankind.It is quite clear it is already changing thestandards we design to’ (Guardian, 27 June 2008).

The aim of the book from here is to considerthe design implications for buildings that will beproof against climate impacts that are beyondimagination. The next chapter illustrates somebuildings that are well ahead of current bestpractice. However, buildings that could beconsidered genuinely climate proof, at least forthis century, should be as much ahead of theleading examples of today, as they are ahead ofcurrent best practice standards.We are talking ofdesigning to combat the unthinkable.

So far we have come to terms with the factthat it is virtually certain that the world willcontinue producing carbon emissions wellbeyond the threshold of irreversible climatechange, namely the concentration of 450ppm.On 25 September 2008, the Global CarbonProject, which monitors worldwide emissionsof the gas, reported that carbon emissions arerising four times faster than in the year 2000.This is mainly due to the fact that, year on year,emissions from developing countries are rapidlyincreasing, while emissions in the developedworld are more or less static. So, perhaps evenNicholas Stern is understating it when hesuggested that the average temperature may riseby 6°C by the end of the century, in which casethe effects would be catastrophic (Stern, 2009).Therefore, this is where the precautionaryprinciple urges that there is nothing to be lostby designing the built environment to copewith the worst case climate scenario.


There is another reason to be concerned aboutthe chances of avoiding the extremeconsequences of global warming. It centres onthe principle that carbon can be a traded as acommodity. The belief that underpinned thecarbon trading scheme was that it wouldspearhead the drive by developed countries tocut their carbon emissions in line with theirKyoto commitments. Has it worked?

Under the Kyoto Protocol, most industrializednations except the US agreed to cut their emissionsof carbon dioxide between 2008 and 2012. Onemechanism for achieving this is to cap emissionsfrom major industrial polluters. These companiesare issued with permits allowing them to emit afixed amount of CO2 each year calculated againstcurrent annual emissions estimated by thecompanies. These permits are tradeable under the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).The idea is that traders who cut their pollution cansell their surplus permits to companies that arefailing to keep within their capped budget. Themarket will operate to set the price of carbon.

At the start of the present round of trading,some industries overstated their carbonrequirements, flooding the carbon market, withthe result that the price for carbon almostcollapsed. It is currently trading at about $8 pertonne. Larry Lohmann, who has writtenextensively on carbon trading, describes it as a‘licence for big polluters to carry on business asusual’ (Lohmann, 2006a). For example, theGerman utilities group RWE, with no carbon

penalties to pay for, made huge windfall profitsfrom selling carbon credits in addition to theprofits from the rising price of oil and gas.

Where the system enters into a grey area is inthe fact that the Kyoto Protocol allows companiesin industrialized countries to invest in emissions-reducing projects in developing countries. Thishappens under the certified emissions reductionscheme (CER).These are credits that can be usedto offset a company’s emissions, or can be tradedon the open market. This is called the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM) and is judgedto represent one tonne of CO2 not emitted. ByDecember 2007 the UN had approved over 1600projects for CERs, which were sold to the highestbidders. Schemes approved included windturbines in India, methane capture from landfill inLatin America and geothermal energy in centralAmerica.

A consortium of private companies led byenergy company Centrica recently bought £400million worth of carbon credits from China, acountry that is outside the Kyoto Protocol andwhich is opening a new coal fired power plantevery one or two weeks. That £400 million isalready being passed on to consumers in highergas prices.The danger is that the ETS is simply amethod of shifting carbon around whilstallowing the major polluting firms to emit moreand more carbon. As Lohmann puts it: ‘It helpskeep an oppressive, fossil-centred industrialmodel going at a time when society should beabandoning it’ (Lohmann, 2006b, p18).

3

The UN Carbon TradingMechanism


The UN Carbon Trading Mechanism 23

At the same time, plants that produce only amarginal carbon improvement over existingsimilar plants can claim offset income. Forexample, a new 4000MW coal fired plant inIndia is expected to claim CERs because itstechnology is a slight advance on its predecessors.It will nevertheless emit ~26 million tonnes ofCO2 per year over its 25 year lifespan and be paidfor the privilege.

The most notorious abuse of the systemcentres on the gas HFC-23, a waste productfrom the production of refrigerants. A moleculeof this gas is 11,700 times more potent as agreenhouse gas than CO2, making it a potentialgold mine. Because of this disparity, chemicalcompanies can earn twice as much from creatingthen destroying the gas and selling the relatedCERs than from selling the refrigerant gas in theconventional market. There are concerns thatmanufacturers are producing an excess of HCF-23 in order to destroy it and claim CERs.

The general view is that carbon trading hascreated wealth but has had little impact onstemming the rise of atmospheric CO2. Evenwhen a CDM represents a real carbon reduction,there is virtually no global benefit and this wasdescribed by Patrick McNully1 as ‘a zero sumgame’. If a mine in a recipient country cuts itsmethane emissions under the CDM, there willbe no global benefit since the polluter that buysthe offset avoids the obligation to cut emissions.

The logical outcome is that the majority ofcuts in emissions supposed to be achieved underKyoto will merely represent traffic in CDMs butno real cuts in carbon pollution. Analysts haveestimated that two-thirds of the emissionsdemanded by the Kyoto agreement fromdeveloped countries may be met by obtainingoffsets rather than decarbonizing theireconomies. So, claimed compliance may, inreality, be bogus. Of course there are other dodgyroutes to compliance.

One stratagem is to export pollution. TheUK excludes the CO2 component of its importsas well as that generated by aircraft or shipping,claiming that, to account for them would be toocomplicated. So, cars from Japan or clothes fromChina imported by Britain that could produce aCO2 liability escape the net. Whilst the UK

government claims to have reduced carbonemissions by 16 per cent since 1990, it is claimedthat greenhouse gases for which it is actuallyresponsible have risen by 19 per cent over thisperiod (Helm, 2007).

In addition to the CDM there is an unofficialoffsetting carbon market that has not beensubject to the UN accreditation scheme.Airlinesare doing this with a modest consciencesurcharge on tickets that helps to plant a tree ortwo or preserve a portion of rainforest. For ashort time BP promoted its offsets schemes on itsTargetneutral website by telling its customers ‘itis now possible to drive in neutral’.

It has to be questioned whether it is possibleto achieve any degree of accuracy in measuringthe sequestration capacity, for example, of a tree.A young tree will make a net contribution toCO2 abatement, but how much is debateable.Asit gets older it may well be a net polluter.

AdditionalityOne problem is that two-thirds of theemissions reduction obligations of countriesthat ratified Kyoto are said to have been metby buying offsets rather than making actualcarbon reductions.

(Patrick McNully quoted in theGuardian, 21 May 2008, p9)

The problems of offsets have been widely aired,especially on the question of ‘additionality’.Would the development paid for by CDM fundshave happened anyway? Proof of additionality isextremely hard to verify. Additionality alsocreates a perverse incentive for developingcountries not to legislate for carbon reductions.Why should a government enforce energyefficiency measures when these then become‘Business as Usual’ and thus not eligible forCDM income?

More than 60 per cent of official CDMprojects approved by April 2008 were forhydroelectric dams, mostly in China. As thesesubstitute for coal fired plants it is a legitimatedestination for funds. However, the non-governmental organization (NGO) Climate



Action Network, has reported that most of theprojects issued with CERs were eithercompleted or under construction before theapplication for CERs was made. This suggeststhere was already a commitment to build them,which implies there was inadequate scrutiny onthe part of the UN. The environmental writerOliver Tickell claims (2008) that 96 per cent ofcarbon credits for hydroelectric damconstruction were issued after construction hadbegun. Even if the problem of additionality isaddressed, some countries may hold backprojects they intended to build so that theywould qualify for CERs.

To prove additionality it is necessary to showthat, if a developer or factory owner did notreceive offset income they would not build theirproject or switch to a greener fuel and that theywould not do so within a decade from the startof the offset funding.

A new profession of carbon consultant hasemerged as a result of the growth in carbontrading and because, generally, companies do nothave the expertise to know where to place theirCER credits.This has given rise to a new field ofcreativity in conjouring up reasons why adevelopment would be impossible without CDMoffsets. Apparently consultants are expert atshowing how a project would be non-viable onits own. It was alleged by an NGO based inCalifornia (International Rivers, 2007), that scoresof hydro developers have claimed that theirprojects will produce less than half the electricityexpected of a dam of a given capacity, whichmeans the sums do not add up; the solution is aCDM. ‘Offsets are an imaginary commoditycreated by deducting what you hope happensfrom what you guess would have happened’ saidDan Welch (2007) in a report for Ethical Consumermagazine. There is claimed to be evidence thatalmost 75 per cent of projects approved by theCDM Executive Board as non-additional werealready complete at the time of approval. Forexample ‘the majority of … hydro projects inChina, South America and Africa are using “Alicein Wonderland” arguments to pretend they arecutting emissions’ (International Rivers, 2007).

There are carbon brokers who buy creditsand then find appropriate markets, such as a

Chinese wind farm project. In 2007 the value ofcarbon deals reached $60 billion, which includesthe brokers’ percentage. It is clear why majorfinancial institutions are now becominginvolved.

It is ironic that the negotiations for the nextphase of Kyoto after 2012 are coinciding withthe worst global economic recession for manydecades. Predictably the rapidly growingconstituency of carbon brokers and consultants islobbying for the CDM to be expanded and itsrules weakened.The evidence above is merely asmall sample of the problems besetting the ETS.In the short term it must be radically reformed.After 2012 it must be replaced by a mechanismthat is, as near as possible, proof against fraud.Thesub-prime crisis has demonstrated how thewhole banking and investment system can becorrupted when there is insufficient governmentsurveillance and control. The unfettered marketis not an appropriate mechanism for saving theplanet from catastrophic global warmingconsequences.

There are further anomalies. The systemoffers a mechanism whereby emissions are cut,but at the price of increasing them elsewhere. Forexample, carbon credits can be obtained byreverting to biofuels. However, the crops maygrow in fields formed by draining peat bogs, thusreleasing methane or cutting down forests. Evenan executive in the steel industry has recognizedthat European carbon pricing ‘is not going tocurb emissions. It will just move the emissionselsewhere’ (Ian Rogers, director of the tradeassociation UK Steel, quoted in Pearce, 2008).‘Many fear … that carbon capitalism is alreadyout of control, delivering huge profits whiledoing little to halt global warming. They aredeeply sceptical of the notion that market forcescan fix climate change.’According to Tom Burke,former director of Friends of the Earth: ‘Tobelieve that is to believe in magic’ (Pearce, 2008).

Feed-in tariffs should create a real incentiveto cut carbon, and likewise the purchase priceshould offer a profound disincentive tocompanies to overshoot. We cannot allow thefuture of the planet to be held to ransom byinternational big business, which is what ishappening now.


The UN Carbon Trading Mechanism 25

The German environmentalist HermannScheer refuses ‘to accept the idea of issuingemission rights that can be traded. It is likegiving rights to trade in drugs, and saying drugdealers can buy and sell those rights’ (Scheer,2008, p44).

Beyond 2012There needs to be fundamental reform of theETS and the first task would be to ‘nationalize’carbon. At present the UK has 60 or so carbontrading companies, few of which seem to be fitfor purpose. It is unacceptable that carbon shouldbe just another component of the commercialfree market. It is much too important to beregulated by market opportunism.

The EU Environment Commissioner shouldhave the power to set the mandatory carbonemissions for EU members based oninternational commitments and reducing yearon year. Individual member nations would beallocated their ration by the Commissioner,probably on a per capita GDP basis, possiblyadjusted according to the relative contributionsfrom the private, commercial and industrialsectors. Sale and purchase prices for carbonwould also be set on an annual basis by theCommissioner who would fix both floor andceiling for prices. For the market to succeed it isnecessary that there should be a high price forcarbon and confidence in the long-term viabilityof the market. It should not be market forces thatdetermine the price of carbon but the rate atwhich emissions must be cut to avoidcatastrophic climate impacts. One suggestion isthat the initial price of carbon should be basedon a scientific analysis of the damage likely to beinflicted by climate change under the IPCC’smedium emissions scenario, ~450ppm by 2050.This would provide a basis for attributingdamage to a tonne of CO2 assuming that itcontributes roughly 75 per cent of allgreenhouse gases. Every member nation wouldhave its own carbon exchange withresponsibility for buying and selling carbon unitswithin the union and distributing money tovalidated causes. Countries failing to meet theirtargets would have to buy carbon credits.

A problem that is fundamental to carbontrading is that the measurement of carbon is animprecise science. This undermines confidencein the carbon said to have been emitted by apolluter, especially when it is based on thepolluter’s own estimate. Since energy is theprime source of human CO2 emissions, the onlysecure way of measuring emissions is bydetermining the carbon content of the fuel mixused by a consumer within a set period, either aquarter or a year. David Miliband is on record asfavouring individual carbon budgets. This mayclaim the moral high ground but it was relegatedto the long grass by the prime minister.The bestmedium-term solution would be to target thetwo sectors responsible for the majority ofemissions: the built environment and transport. Itis also important that the pain of carbonabatement should be spread evenly and also thatthe carbon content of energy should beaccurately accounted for. Meanwhile, ‘theEuropean Union’s Emissions Trading Schemehas resulted in no net reductions in carbonemissions to date’ (Ainger, 2008, p34).

The appendix to this chapter offers asuggestion for a building-centred carbon budgetstrategy.

Appendix

The carbon budget principle forbuildings

Houses

There is no better time than now to introduce amandatory system for accounting for CO2

emissions due to the use of buildings. A carbonbudget system that embraces all properties is theanswer. A home would have a fixed ‘ration’ ofcarbon initially based on the current annualaverage for the type of property and the level ofoccupation. Smart meters with an indoor displaywould show the electricity and gas consumedand state of the CO2 budget The display couldbe a pi diagram indicating the daily level ofremaining carbon credits. Unused carbon creditscould be sold to the official carbon exchange atthe price set by the Commission, which would



constitute a significant incentive to save energy.If carbon units had to be purchased to meet thebudget they would carry a surcharge plus thecost of administration.A domestic carbon budgetsystem would have to take account of a numberof variables:

• habitable area;• location: urban or rural;• climate zone;• number of occupants;• access to energy (e.g. those without mains

gas would have a higher allowance);• age of the property;• age of the occupants;• disabilities;• special relief for low income and single

parent families.

Non-domestic buildings

In commercial and institutional buildings thecarbon budget should be based on overall energyuse of, say, 120kWh/m2/year with a target of the current best practice standard of90kWh/m2/year.There might also be a limit seton the amount of excess carbon units that couldbe purchased, say 20 per cent of the annualbudget. An individual building’s budget wouldtake account of:

• area of occupied space;• climate zone and possibly micro-climate;• age of the property;• its historic importance, e.g. listed building

status;• type of operation and level of electronic

appliances;• level of occupancy, e.g. 24/7.

For both domestic and commercial/institutionalbuildings this is a sample of factors to beconsidered in determining carbon budgets.

Transport

A cost-effective way of curbing the carbongenerated by road vehicles is the carbon smartcard.When a vehicle obtains its road fund licencea card is supplied loaded with appropriate carboncredits for the period of the licence. Factorstaken into account for private cars wouldinclude:

• category of vehicle, say 3 categories based on CO2g/km but tapering down to alow emission vehicle level within say 5years;

• location of owner: urban or rural;• special needs: disability, age;• chronic health problems;• access to public transport;• ratio of private to occupational use;• multiple vehicle adjustment.

The fastest growing emissions are from aircraft.The EU is proposing that they should comeunder the carbon trading umbrella whether interms of flights or individual passengers. Thiswould only be legitimate were it to beuniversally applied. The chances of this areremote.The only robust strategy would be for acarbon tax, based on average occupancy orfreight and according to the length of flight, tobe levied on either take-off or landing.The EUwould need to brace itself for the consequences,especially opposition from national, commercialand industrial interests. If only these interestswould recognize that their future existencedepends on the world achieving rapid and drasticcuts in CO2.

Note1 Patrick McNully is Executive Director,

International Rivers, a US think tank.


There have been isolated examples of design inhousing that respond to the Atkins’ challenge ofwhat Keith Clarke defines as ‘carbon critical’design (see Chapter 2). It was in Germany thatthe challenge was first taken up with inceptionof the PassivHaus programme.

Case studies

PassivHaus, Darmstadt, Germany

In 1990, Germany launched its PassivHausprogramme with an ultra-low energydemonstration project in Darmstadt.This involvedwalls with a U-value1 of 0.10–0.15W/m2K, withwall insulation of 300–335mm. Roof insulationwas 500mm and triple glazing achieved a U-valueof up to 0.70W/m2K (Figure 4.1).

The basic principles of PassivHaus design areillustrated in Figure 4.2.

The emphasis of the PassivHaus is onretaining heat, mostly as measured by U-values.In the future the emphasis for much of the yearmay well be on keeping cool.

The US Department of Energy hasestablished a private/public partnership with thetitle ‘Building America: Developing EnergyEfficient Homes in the US’. Its goals include:

• producing homes on a community scale thatuse on average 30–90 per cent less energy;

• integrating onsite power systems leading to‘zero-energy’ homes (ZEH) that will

ultimately produce as much energy as theyuse by 2020;

• helping home builders reduce constructiontime and waste;

• improving builder productivity;• providing new product opportunities to

manufacturers and suppliers;• implementing innovative energy and

material saving techniques.

Whilst not yet aiming to produce homes to thePassivHaus level, it does incorporate severalfeatures of that standard.The principal aim of theprogramme is to encourage ‘whole systemsengineering’; what in the UK is called‘integrated design’. The purpose is ‘to unitesegments of the building industry thattraditionally work independently’. In otherwords, the design and construction teams shouldwork together from the inception of the design.Post-completion prototypes will be rigorouslytested before the programme goes into volumeproduction.

Autonomous House, Southwell, UK

Soon after the PassivHaus prototype wascompleted, two architecture lecturers at theNottingham University School of Architectureembraced the PassivHaus challenge with theirvernacular style Autonomous House in Southwell,UK (Figure 4.3). Completed in 1993, its style wasdictated by the fact that it was close to Southwell

4

Setting the Pace TowardsClimate-proof Housing



Source: Wikipedia

Figure 4.1 PassivHaus, Darmstadt, Germany 1990

Triple

pane

double

low-e

glazing

supplyair

supplyair

Ground heat exchanger

extractair

extractair

Superinsulation

Solar thermal coll.(optional)

Ventilation system withheat recovery

Source: Wikipedia

Figure 4.2 PassivHaus characteristics


Setting the Pace Towards Climate-proof Housing 29

Minster, an outstanding Norman cathedralsurrounded by venerable domestic buildings.Thearchitects were Robert and Brenda Vale.

This three-storey house was designed to benot only net zero carbon but also independent ofmost mains services, justifying the title‘Autonomous House’. It was connected to thegrid in order to export excess power from thephotovoltaic (PV) cells.The only other externallink was a telephone line. The environmentalcredentials of the house still place it in thevanguard of current practice. These are theessential elements:

• there is a two-storey conservatory on thewest, garden side of the house;

• construction is heavyweight with highinsulation and thermal mass properties(Figure 4.4);

• heat recovery is by natural ventilation;• water heating: solar thermal with ground

source heat backup;

• space heating: passive solar plus 4kW woodstove;

• water supply: stored and filtered rainwatercollected through copper rainwater goods;

• a 2.2kW PV array is positioned in thegarden and solar thermal panels on the roof.

Figure 4.3 The ‘Autonomous House’ Southwell, rearview with 2.2kW photovoltaic cell array

Figure 4.4 Roof, wall and floor section of theAutonomous House



The U-values (in W/m2K) are as follows:

The construction materials were rigorouslychosen to minimize embodied energy. Energyuse, excluding the wood stove, solar thermal and

PV panels was 17kWh/m2/y. If these figures aretaken into account, its performance surpasses theDarmstadt PassivHaus prototype.

Hockerton Housing Project (HHP)

In addition to designing the Autonomous House in Southwell, the Vales designed a groupof ultra-low energy houses near the village ofHockerton in Nottinghamshire (Figures 4.5 and 4.6). HHP is the UK’s first earth-sheltered,self-sufficient ecological housing development,with homes amongst the most energy efficientdwellings in Europe.

It comprises a narrow plan single aspectgroup of houses, fully earth sheltered on thenorth side with the earth carried over the roof.The south elevation is completely occupied by agenerous sun space across all the units.

This is designed to be a partially autonomousscheme using recycled grey water and with wasteproducts being aerobically treated by reed beds.

Figures 4.5 Passive solar houses 1998, Hockerton Self-Sufficient Housing Project south elevation andconservatories, exterior

Area U-value Construction

Ground floor 0.6

Walls 0.14 100mm dense concrete blocks,250mm insulation,bricks exterior

Roof 0.07 500mm cellulose fibre

Windows 1.15 triple-glazed in wood frames

Conservatory 2.1 double-glazed argon filled and low emissivity coating



PVs and a wind generator supplement itselectricity needs. It is described as a net zeroenergy scheme, which is defined as adevelopment that is connected to the grid andthere is at least a balance between the exportedand imported electricity. Like the AutonomousHouse in Southwell, this development meets allof its electricity needs onsite and therefore is notreliant on the grid, making it an autonomousdevelopment.

Hockerton is a project designed for a specialkind of lifestyle, which will only ever haveminority appeal. For example it plans to be self-sufficient in vegetables, fruit and dairy productsemploying organic-permaculture principles.One fossil fuel car is allowed per household and8 hours support activity per week is requiredfrom each resident. It is a demonstration of whatit means to create a symbiotic link betweenliving and architecture.

The Hockerton project has a number of keyfeatures:

• 90 per cent energy saving compared withconventional housing;

• self-sufficient in water, with domestic watercollected from the conservatory roof andreed bed treated effluent for purposes thatrequire EU bathing water standard;

• considerable thermal storage due to earthsheltering;

• 70 per cent heat recovery from extractedwarm air;

• triple-glazed internal windows and double-glazed conservatory;

• 300mm of insulation in walls;• a wind generator to reduce reliance on the

grid;• roof mounted photovoltaics.

Solar House, Freiburg, Germany

In 1992 a house was completed for theFraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Researchin Freiburg im Breisgau (Figure 4.7). Describedas a self-sufficient solar house, it was anexperimental design to test the viability of energyself-sufficiency. It was well ahead of its time interms of thermally efficient construction, withsouth, east and west elevations constituting aTrombe wall. This consisted of 300mm calciumsilicate blocks behind acrylic glass honeycombtransparent insulation material (TIM) withintegral blinds between the TIM and externalglazing. With the blinds closed the U-value was 0.5W/m2K and 0.4W/m2K with

Figure 4.6 Passive solar houses 1998, HockertonSelf-Sufficient Housing Project south elevation andconservatories, interior

Figure 4.7 Solar House, Freiburg, FraunhoferInstitute for Solar Energy Research



them open.The unglazed north wall comprised300mm calcium silicate blocks supporting240mm of cellulose fibre insulation protected bytimber boarding.

Roof mounted PV cells provide electricityand solar thermal panels serve the domestic hotwater system.A unique feature of the house wasthat the PVs were connected to an electrolyserthat produced hydrogen for a fuel cell to providecontinuous electricity.Triple-glazed low-E (lowemissivity) windows of U-value 0.6W/m2Kcompleted the specification for a highlyinnovative house well ahead of its time.The onlyserious problem that the experiment exposedwas that the fuel cell capacity was inadequateduring periods of extreme cold.

State of the art housing 2009The experimental solar house is proof that, inthe 1990s, the city of Freiburg was a pace setterin terms of exploiting solar energy, which, in2008, caused the Observer to describe it aspossibly ‘the greenest city in the world’ (Observer

Magazine, 23 March 2008). As its significanceextends beyond the characteristics of individualbuildings, it will be considered in some detail inChapter 8, concerned with eco-towns.

The result is that Freiburg has achieved ahigh level of energy efficiency in its buildings,with a significant number realizing thePassivHaus energy consumption standard of15kWh/m2/year (Figures 4.8 and 4.9).

Source: Wikipedia

Figure 4.8 Sonnenschiff Energy Plus development

Figure 4.9 Solar Village (Solarsiedlung), Freiburg



Sustainability and the Solarsiedlung

The Solarsiedlung is a mixed development ofcommercial units and housing. The houses aredesigned to PassivHaus standard.This includes:

• 400mm of insulation in the walls and450mm in the roof;

• 1000m2 of roof mounted PVs providing135kWp electricity;

• no air conditioning – the project relies onpassive cross ventilation with night timepurging; coloured panels projecting 400mmfrom the facade allow cool air to enter thebuilding via grilles that offer security;

• a community combined heat and power(CHP) plant, with 80 per cent of its fuelprovided by the adjacent Black Forest and 20 per cent from gas; there is supplementaryheat from solar thermal vacuum tube panelson the roofs;

• ground source heat pumps provide heat inwinter and cooling in summer.

All the terraced houses face south, with largewindows to maximize solar gain. The spacebetween blocks ensures insulation in winter.Theaim of the scheme is for a combination of energyefficiency and renewable sources to provide allthe energy demands of the scheme. In some casesthere is an energy surplus. Where electricity isexported to the grid, the owner receives€0.42/kWh for 20 years.

Developments in the UKThere is an eco-project still under construction isthe satellite community of Upton inNorthampton. Its homes all reach the BREEnvironmental Assessment Method (BREEAM)standard of excellence. This means they allrepresent significant improvements over thecurrent building regulations. BREEAM has nowbeen supplemented by the Sustainable BuildingCode as outlined below.Some houses feature PVsand others solar thermal panels. Nevertheless, thecontrast with eco-homes in Freiburg is stark(Figure 4.10). There is little doubt that theinfluence of the Prince of Wales Architecture

Institute has been decisive in determining thestyle. It is no coincidence that it echoes thearchitecture of the Institute’s blueprint for one ofthe proposed government eco-towns.

There are two notes of architectural defiance inUpton. The first is sounded by the new primaryschool, the second is the ZedFactory terrace ofRuralZed houses (Figure 4.11),designed by the BillDunster team that produced the mould-breakingBedZed scheme in south London. To understandthe significance of this small island of excellence inUpton, it is necessary to explain how the UKgovernment is bent on reaching the goal of zerocarbon homes by 2016 in response to acceleratingclimate change. To be precise, it has declared itsintention to exceed the PassivHaus standard withlevel 6 of the Sustainable Homes Standard. InDecember 2006 the Department of Communitiesand Local Government of the UK issued itsstandards for sustainable homes on a scale of 1–6.

UK Sustainable Building Code

Under the Code for Sustainable Homes (CSH)there are nine categories of compliance.Table 4.1 refers to standards for CO2 emissions.Table 4.2 describes the nine environmentalcategories involved in compliance.

The last level in Table 4.1 is meant torepresent a net ‘zero carbon home’, inclusive ofheating, lighting, hot water and all other energyuses in the home. This, of course, means thatthere must be an onsite source of renewableenergy (electricity and heat).

Figure 4.10 Eco-homes in Upton, Northampton, UK



The Bill Dunster RuralZed design for athree-bedroom house in basic kit form for amedium density development achieves Codelevel 3 (Figure 4.11). As such it represents a 25 per cent improvement over the currentbuilding regulations. It has a timber framestructure that contains 50mm concrete panelsforming the inner face of the walls. Furtherthermal mass is provided by vaulted terracottaceiling panels supported by first floor joists.Thesurface of the ground and first floors comprises

waxed concrete slabs that create a smoothsurface.Altogether 21 tonnes of concrete providesubstantial thermal mass. In the external walls,studwork between the structural memberscontains 300mm of rockwool insulation.Mandatory air tightness is achieved with a highperformance vapour-permeable membrane.Thearea of the basic home is 88m2.

To meet Code level 4 the design employspassive ventilation with heat recovery, togetherwith solar water heating and a wood chip boiler.

Source: Code for Sustainable Homes – setting the standard in sustainability for new homes; Department for

Communities and Local Government, 2006

Code Level Minimum percentage reduction in dwelling emission rate over target emission rate

Level 1 (*) 10

Level 2 (**) 18

Level 3 (***) 25

Level 4 (****) 44

Level 5 (*****) 100

Level 6 (******) 'Zero Carbon Home'

Table 4.1 Star ratings for mandatory minimum standards in CO2 emissions underthe Code for Sustainable Homes representing improvements over the BuildingRegulations Part L

Figure 4.11 RuralZed homes in Upton, Northampton, UK



Categories Issue

Energy and CO2 emissions Dwelling emission rate (mandatory)Building fabricInternal lightingDrying spaceEnergy labelled white goodsExternal lightingLow or zero carbon (LZC) technologiesCycle storageHome office

Water Indoor water use (mandatory)External water use

Materials Environmental impact of materials (mandatory)Responsible sourcing of materials – basic building elementsResponsible sourcing of materials – finishing elements

Surface Water Run-off Management of Surface Water Run-off from developments (mandatory)Flood risk

Waste Storage of non-recyclable waste and recyclable household waste(mandatory)Construction waste management (mandatory)Composting

Pollution Global warming potential (GWP) of insulantsNOx emissions

Health and Well-being DaylightingSound insulationPrivate spaceLifetime homes (mandatory)

Management Home user guideConsiderate constructors schemeConstruction site impactsSecurity

Ecology Ecological value of siteEcological enhancementProtection of ecological featuresChange in ecological value of siteBuilding footprint

Table 4.2 Summary of the environmental categories and issues of the Code for Sustainable Homes

Source: Code for Sustainable Homes – setting the standard in sustainability for new homes; Department for Communities and Local

Government, 2006


Level 5 would need the addition of seven southfacing 180W PV panels and a green roof on thenorth slope. Rainwater harvesting completes the specification.To achieve level 6 requires theaddition of a sunspace plus 21 more PV panels tomeet the needs of lighting and appliances. Thisbrings the area to 100m2.

As mentioned, the forerunner to RuralZedwas the Beddington Zero Energy Development(BedZed) in south London. It was the firstsizeable community development to be based onultra low energy principles. It is described indetail in Smith, 2007, pp157–162.

BRE Innovation Exhibition 2007

In 2007 housing developers were invited tocontribute to an exhibition site at the BuildingResearch Establishment (BRE) in Watford. Eachwas to illustrate how its design fulfilled therequirements of the Code at levels 4–6.The Innovation site, was also intended to illustratethe versatility of ‘offsite’ or factory fabricatedconstruction. They were all designed to fit on acompact site,which meant that some went to threestoreys (Figure 4.12). Part of the intention was toexpose some of the problems that might ariseunder such demanding conditions and, amongothers, the following two issues came to light.

The first was that several examples initiallyfailed to meet the required level of air tightness.This was understandable in a project that was experimental (Olcayto, 2007). It alsodemonstrated that some types of constructionmake it easier to realize this goal.

The second problem concerns thermal mass.Surviving the future will not just require highstandards of energy efficiency but also high levelsof thermal mass and structural robustness. Thisraises questions about the long-term viability oflightweight structure homes like the Osborneexample in Figures 4.12 and 4.13.

The Hanson 2 example on the BRE site wasmuch more in tune with the needs of the future,being of heavyweight construction for walls andfloors (Figures 4.14 and 4.15).

Composite brick and concrete insulatedpanels were fabricated offsite.This, plus a concrete


Figure 4.13 Wall sections, Osborne House

Figure 4.12 Osborne House at BRE with lightweightconstruction and low thermal mass



plank first floor, gives the house the thermal massthat will make 40°C summers tolerable as well asgive it the structural robustness to cope withexpected 140mph storms.

For a start, creating volume housing that isgenuinely future-proof will require a radical shiftin design standards compared with currentbuilding regulations and even compared to thestandards demonstrated at the BRE Offsiteexhibition. So far the building industry has notdemonstrated its willingness to adapt to radical

change.But maybe things are changing if the latestdemonstration home at BRE is anything to go by.

In May 2008, BRE unveiled a demonstrationhouse that it claims to be Sustainable BuildingCode level 6 and therefore genuinely zerocarbon. But here’s the rub. A house to thisstandard with its high level of thermal masscould cost up to £500,000 to be constructed,plus site costs. It could end up costing threequarters of a million (Figure 4.16).

Returning to the zero carbon debate, thereare conflicting views. Homes can be designed tobe near zero carbon in terms of space heating andcooling, but there are numerous other systems ina home that have carbon consequences: lighting,cooking, white goods,TVs and so on. If a houseis to be truly carbon neutral it must receivesufficient power from renewable technologies tomeet these associated demands.The governmentseems bent on insisting this must be generatedfrom either integrated or onsite renewablesystems. Is this realistic?

Figure 4.15 Hanson 2, first floor living room

Figure 4.16 Zero Carbon house by Barratt Homesand Architects Gaunt Francis

Figure 4.14 Hanson 2, Architects T P Bennett



If future-proof homes are to be zero carbon inan absolute sense, this means that they must employintegrated or onsite energy production from PVs,Ground Source (GS) heat pumps, solar thermal andpossibly micro-wind if conditions allow.

Department for Communitiesand Local Government CaseStudies: Code for SustainableHomes 2009

Mid-Street, South Nutfield, Surrey, CSH level 5

This is a development of 2 × two-bedroom flats.The construction is of prefabricated timberstructural insulated panels (SIPS). The SIPSsystem incorporates mineral wool and expandedpolystyrene insulation.The floor is concrete beamand block with mineral wool and expandedpolystyrene insulation (Figure 4.17). The keysustainability features of this development are:

• passive solar design;• low flow rate sanitary ware;• rainwater recycling;• low energy lighting;• PV array;• biomass pellet boiler;• low energy rated white goods;• FSC certified timber;• mechanical ventilation with heat recovery;• windows are triple-glazed with low-e glass.

The original intention was to design for airpermeability at the PassivHaus standard of1m3/[email protected] was relaxed to 3m3/h@50Padue to achieving trade-offs through other CSHrequirements. Final tests resulted in 4.9m3/[email protected] echoes the problems at the BREInnovation exhibition with SIPS constructionand seems to be inherent in this form of systembuilding in addition to its deficiencies regardingthermal mass.

Energy Homes Project, NottinghamUniversity

The PassivHaus principle is behind the decisionof Nottingham University to promote theconstruction of six demonstration houses underits Energy Homes Project on its campus. Thebenchmark is the PassivHaus standard for energyconsumption of 15kWh/m2/year.The first to becompleted was the BASF funded example(Figure 4.18). The second, the Stoneguard house, is nearing completion and two furtherhouses will be built by Tarmac. Another homeillustrates how a 1930s semi-detached house may

Source: Department of Communities and Local Government

Figure 4.17 DCLG case study: 4 Mid Street, SouthNutfield, Surrey, achieving Code Level 5


Walls 0.14 SIPS panels with 50mmexternal insulation

Roof 0.13 Timber with concrete tilesand 400mm mineral wool

Floor 0.14 Concrete beam and blockwith 75mm insulation

Windows 0.80 Triple-glazed low-e

Doors 1.2 Fully insulated



be upgraded to near PassivHaus standard. TheBASF house is expected to achieve near zerocarbon energy efficiency. Its cost is expected toattract first time buyers.

The notable design features of this houseinclude:

• efficient compact plan;• extensive passive solar gain with sun space –

in winter it contributes to heating throughcontrolled solar gain and underground airpumped in to preheat the space; in summerunderground air contributes to cooling;

• high insulation levels and small openings tonorth, east and west;

• ground source heat pump for heating andcooling;

• ground floor construction consisting ofinsulated concrete formwork (Figure 4.20);

• first floor comprises 150mm polyurethanefoam insulated structural panels;

• air tightness and thermal bridging is improvedby 90 per cent over current practice;

• thermal mass is enhanced by phase-changematerial designed for lightweight buildings;

• first floor and roof are finished in CorusColorcoat Urban cladding with the roofcoated in heat reflective pigments achievinga U-value of 0.15W/m2K; the roof iscertified as ‘drinking water safe’;

• solar thermal panels should provide 80 percent of hot water needs;

• biomass boiler to provide extra heat whenneeded, fuelled by wood pellets;

• rainwater is fed via a fine filter to a 3300ltank for use in the garden and non-potablepurposes in the home.

The energy use is expected to be roughly12kWh/m2/y compared with 15kWh/m2/y forthe PassivHaus.

The Stoneguard C60 house (Figures 4.19–4.21)has four bedrooms and a basement. It will beoccupied by staff and students who will monitorthe building’s performance. It features a steel framestructure together with many of the ecological andenvironmental features of the BASF house. Inaddition it employs sunpipes to maximize naturallighting. It has a grey water management system toreuse shower/bath water for flushing as well as arainwater harvesting system. It is expected to becompleted by early 2010.

The real challenge for the future will behow to reduce the energy consumption of theexisting housing stock in the UK, currentlyresponsible for 27 per cent of all CO2 emissions.According to Dr Mark Gillott, research and


Internal glazed screen to sun space

1.7

Double-glazed external screen to sun space

2.7

Walls and roof 0.15

Windows 1.66 Double-glazed to north elevation

The U-values (in W/m2K) are as follows:

Figure 4.18 BASF PassivHaus, Nottingham University



project manager for Creative Homes in theuniversity, 21 million homes, or 86 per cent ofthe current total, will still be in use in 2050.

As with the high standards set by ParkerMorris for social housing in the 1960s and1970s, so today a way has to be found to buildaffordable homes that will nevertheless be able totolerate torrid summers and cold and stormywinters. In many locations they will have to beproof against flash floods as torrential rainepisodes and storm surges multiply in frequencyand intensity. The aim should be to producebuildings that are as far ahead of Code level 6 asthat level is above current building regulations.Will it be possible?

Note1 U-value is the rate at which the heat flows from

a unit of area (usually 1m2) through an elementat 1°C of temperature difference.The lower thevalue the better the level of insulation.

Figure 4.20 Concrete filled insulated formwork tothe ground floor

Figure 4.19 Stoneguard House, NottinghamUniversity

Figure 4.21 Steel frame, Stoneguard house


Advancing from the small handful of zerocarbon homes currently being built to240,000 homes a year within nine yearswill challenge everyone connected with theindustry… There are major risks which themarket, on its own, will not resolve.

(Callcutt Review, An Overview of theHousebuilding Industry, 2007, p88)

This is a clear admission that the goal ofachieving the zero carbon standard for homesacross the board by 2016 will be impossiblewithout the help of government.What form thishelp might take has still to be revealed. First it isnecessary to distinguish between ‘carbon neutral’and ‘zero carbon’. The first can be achieved byoffsetting carbon emissions through investment,for example, in renewable energy projects orsecuring sustainable tree planting, usually indeveloping countries. ‘Zero carbon’ usually onlyapplies to buildings and means that there are nonet CO2 emissions per year. Buildings areallowed to emit CO2 provided it is offset byrenewables, either integrated or onsite.

However, zero carbon is not enough, forreasons to be explained. In an article publishedin the Guardian on 1 October 2008, VickyPope, head of climate change research at theMet Office, claimed there are now relativelyfirm predictions to the year 2100 regarding theimpacts of climate change. Assumptions comeunder four scenarios.

Scenario One

• CO2 emissions start to decrease worldwideby 2010.

• Reductions soon reach 3 per cent per year.• This produces a 47 per cent decrease by

2050.• Global average temperature by 2100 is

between 2.1° and 2.8°C above 1990 level.

Even this could be crossing the threshold intoirreversible climate change. The impacts couldinclude 20–30 per cent of species at a higher riskof extinction. There is a likelihood of increaseddamage from storms and floods. In addition,above 2°C plants and soils begin to lose theircapacity to absorb CO2; warmer seas are also lessable to soak up CO2.

Scenario Two

• There is an early but slow decline inemissions.

• Action starts in 2010.• Reductions average 1 per cent per year.• Emissions return to 1990 levels by 2050.• Temperature rise is between 2.9° and 3.8°C

by 2100.

The impacts of this scenario include up to a 30per cent loss of coastal wetlands; a sea level riseof several metres due to melting ice sheets; heat

5

Future-proof Housing


waves, floods and droughts causing significantloss of life.

Under this scenario there is every chancethat the temperature will rise above 4°C, whichis regarded as the tipping point into acceleratingclimate impacts due to the release of methanefrom permafrost and ocean hydrates. It should beremembered that methane is not included incurrent IPCC calculations.

Scenario Three

• There is a delayed and slow decline inemissions.

• Action starts in 2030 with reductions in linewith scenario two.

• Emissions would increase by 76 per centabove 1990 level by 2050.

• Temperature rise is 4–5.2°C.

The impacts of scenario three include up to 15 million people being at risk from floodingand 3 million facing water stress.The heat wouldimpact on food production worldwide,especially in low latitudes.

Scenario Four

• The present situation of BaU is maintainedthroughout the century.

• CO2 emissions increase by 132 per centabove 1990 level by 2050.

• Temperature rise is 5.5–7.1°C.

In terms of impacts this is unknown territorybut by 2100 there would be major extinctions,severe coastal erosion, flooding of low lying landand 10–20 per cent loss of ice in the Arctictundra.

At the current rate of progress ininternational achievements in tackling climatechange, there are good reasons for believing thatadaptation policy in terms of the builtenvironment should assume the third or fourthscenarios. Even if this proves to have been toopessimistic, there is also the energy situation toconsider, meaning that extra costs will soon berecovered in energy efficiency gains.

The design determinants forclimate-proof housingIn certain respects, housing standards in thedeveloped world have been raised as a reaction tocurrent climate change impacts. The time hascome to be proactive because the world’s climateis changing for the worse at a pace that exceedsexpectations. Consequently housing deservesspecial consideration because it is the one area ofbuilding that most affects the quality of life andis also intergenerational. It is estimated that 87per cent of the housing existing today will stillbe standing in 2050. In fact, in the UK, at thepresent rate of replacement, it will take at least1000 years before all homes have been replaced.With such a long-life investment at stake, it iswise to consider now the features of homes thatwill be necessary if the worst case climatepredictions of impacts materialize. This meanssetting standards for design that will be valid fordecades ahead, including features that do notfigure in either the passive house programme orthe UK Code for Sustainable Homes.

Current progress in achieving internationalagreement to curb CO2 emissions would suggestthat it is logical to consider the design featuresthat will soften the blow if the IPCC highemissions or worst case scenario materializes. Atpresent, this is the odds-on favourite. We musttherefore consider what our housing stock willbe likely to have to withstand as the centuryprogresses.

Even in the unlikely event that the worldmanages to stabilize CO2 emissions before fossilfuels run out, extreme impacts are almostinevitable.These can be summarized as:

• extreme storms in the hurricane andtornado category;

• extremes of temperature, possibly cold as well as hot, if the jet stream route changesand/or the Gulf Stream circulation breaksdown;

• episodes of extreme rainfall producing flashfloods;

• alternatively, extended droughts affectingstructures;



• storm surges leading to extended floodingespecially in flood plains;

• rising sea level amplified by low pressure,currently running at 3mm/year.

Many places in the world are already experiencinghurricanes or typhoons in category 4.This meanswind speeds between 131 and 155mph. Recentexperience shows that the US is not immunefrom such events. Even northern Europe has notescaped as demonstrated by the localized butdevastating storm that demolished most of thevillage of Hautmont in northern France in August2008.As such storms are likely to be more widelydistributed and possibly more frequent in thefuture, the precautionary principle dictates thatwe should be considering now how housesshould be designed to withstand such anonslaught from nature.

Many of the features required for our housesto withstand wind storms will, in fact, be relevantto several of the extreme impacts. To fullyappreciate the scope of the changes that will benecessary, it will be logical, first, to consider theelements of a house.

Walls

The shift away from masonry to lightweightconstruction, usually with timber, but alsofeaturing pressed steel members, is not justconfined to the UK.The increasing trend in theUS to achieve the PassivHaus standard is, inmany cases, being realized through timber frameconstruction. More than anything, this is aneconomy measure.

The 2008 Innovation exhibition at the UKBuilding Research Establishment (BRE) hashighlighted how developers see the route toachieving Code for Sustainable Homes levels4–6, as is soon to be required by governmentregulations. The common feature of all thehouses is that they were largely fabricated offsite.Only one, the Hanson 2 house, featured fullybrick and block construction for its externalwalls.

From the point of view of storms, climate-proof homes will need to be of heavyweight

masonry construction. The recommendation isthat the masonry component of external wallsshould add up to at least 240mm, for example,external element 140mm dense concrete blocksand internal leaf, 100mm. Alternatively, offsiteconcrete construction can meet the standard,provided the cross section is robust and qualitycontrol impeccable. If insulated offsite panels areto be employed, then they would be suitable ifsupported within steel frame construction (seeFigure 5.4 below). A suggestion as to how suchtechniques could be employed in masonry areillustrated in Figure 5.5.

External walls alone will not suffice. Internalpartitions should be of concrete blockconstruction at least 112mm thick. Structuralstiffness is as important as the strength of externalwalls. Ground and first floors ideally should bemade of concrete, either formed in situ or asprecast units that can accommodate services.

Roofs

Both pitched and flat roofs are the first to gowhen it comes to succumbing to storm damage.Even the relatively modest storms experiencedby the UK have revealed the weaknesses inmuch modern roof construction. Timbersections are frequently reduced to a minimumfor reasons of economy.

Whilst timber mostly has excellentsustainability credentials, it is not being used insections that are robust enough to withstandextreme storms. It is not only absolute windspeed that does the damage but also suddenchanges of direction, as is characteristic of tornados. Cross-section standards for roof timbers should be revised to take account of anticipated loading. Joints between keymembers should be made using steel connectorsand bolts in place of the gang-nail trusses that arecurrently popular.

Storms generate huge suction forces, so it isessential that roof members are firmly attachedto external walls. In the early 1960s Sheffieldexperienced extreme winds that wrought havocwith domestic roofs and resulted in changes inbuilding regulations so that that roofs were

Future-proof Housing 43


required to be anchored to walls with steelstraps. Future risks have increased by orders ofmagnitude. In the examples that are illustrated, itis suggested that a ring beam in concrete or steelshould cap the external walls and create a robustconnection to roof members as well as providinganchorage to the walls.

The 30° pitch is the optimal angle for PVs andsolar thermal panels. High pitch roofs considerablyincrease the wind load during storms. However,this means that conventional roof tiles are mostlyinappropriate. In this circumstance, metal sheetcovering is the most common alternative,particularly zinc with standing seam joints1

finished in heat-reflective paint. This would alsofacilitate the later addition of solar panels if theyare not installed at the outset.

Windows and doors

Triple glazing in timber frames should bestandard throughout, achieving a U-value of lessthan 1.0W/m2K. However, even these may bevulnerable to failure in super-storms.This is oneof several reasons for recommending a return tothe traditional practice of fitting externalshutters, which also protect against extremetemperatures.‘Concertina’ type shutters regularlyfeature in new buildings in mainland Europe(Figure 5.1).

Sustainability approved hardwood externaldoors should exceed current thermal building

regulations and feature a window in toughenedglass only large enough for identificationpurposes.

Where possible, houses should be orientatedwith their gable ends east–west with minimumopenings. This will offer protection fromprevailing winds. Where possible, natural windbreaks should be exploited.There is even a placefor the Leylandii hedge, provided it is kept incheck.

TemperatureIn the formulation of building regulations likethe UK’s Part L, the emphasis up to now hasbeen on conserving warmth. In the future it isprobable that keeping cool will be as importantas retaining heat. In the government’s PlanningPolicy Statement: Eco-Towns, concerningstandards for proposed eco-towns, it states thathouses should ‘incorporate best practice onoverheating’.This throws into doubt the viabilityof lightweight structures that can be efficient atretaining heat but are deficient in avoidingoverheating.

A Met Office report commissioned by theDepartment of Works and Pensions in 2008concluded that ‘the weather may become so hotthat Britain’s poor and elderly will need statehelp to pay their summer energy bills as theyreach for air conditioners to prevent themselvesdying from heat exhaustion’. The reportconcluded that, by 2050, summers of theintensity of 2003 will occur every other year(Guardian, 8 January 2009, p9). It is worthrepeating the TCPA warning in Chapter 2 toexpect 40–48°C summers.

The UK has adopted the target of 2 millionnew homes by 2016 and 3 million by 2020.Thiswas repeated at a time when the construction ofnew homes had almost come to a halt ascontractors were denied loan facilities. Theofficial view is that the only way such targets canbe realized is if offsite, factory prefabrication isoptimized.This favours timber frame lightweightconstruction as demonstrated by the Innovationexhibition at the BRE, featured in Chapter 4.The advantages are speed of erection and cost.


Figure 5.1 Folding sliding shutters


The overriding disadvantages are that suchconstruction techniques will be vulnerable tofailure in hurricane scale storms, as mentioned,and that, as demonstration examples have shown,it can be difficult to achieve the Code level of airtightness.

Above all, the poor thermal mass of thesebuildings will create interiors that amplify thepeaks of outside temperature but do not respond to the troughs. In others words hightemperatures are sustained overnight. The killerfactor in the 2003 heatwave was the persistencefor weeks of night temperatures at around 35°C.This means that the zero carbon credentials ofsuch houses will be compromised by the use ofroom-size air-cooling units in high summer,especially at night.

As discussed in Chapter 4, the Hanson 2house at the BRE exhibition was the only onethat achieved anything approaching a significantcapacity of thermal mass.This capacity is wherethe specification for storm protection coincideswith the need for thermal mass and is an issuethat should be considered separately fromthermal efficiency as defined by U-values. Thisreinforces the argument in favour of at least240mm of masonry in external walls. At least150mm of insulation should be incorporated tomeet Code 6 thermal requirements (see Figure5.5 below).

A further advantage of masonry constructionis that it is more efficient at achieving themandatory level of air tightness than lightweightstructures, which, as mentioned have encountereddifficulties in this respect.

Thermal mass, or volumetric heat capacity(VHC), is the ability of a material to store heator cooling when subject to a temperaturechange, without undergoing a phase change. Itis measured in kilojoules/m2 K. Typical valuesare: concrete 2060 and brickwork 1360. So,high thermal mass evens out the peaks andtroughs of the external temperature. In winterit stores heat and in summer reduces heatabsorption whilst also facilitating night timepurging. In houses this can be achievedpassively. The BedZed and RuralZed projects

employ rooftop cowls that have vanes thatorientate the cowl to the prevailing wind.Thismeans that the ventilation inlet faces upwindand exhaust air is extracted by suctiondownwind. In winter a heat exchanger transfersthe warmth from the exhaust air to theincoming fresh air (see Figure 4.11).

It has been estimated that the ‘thermal lag’ ina high thermal mass office building can be sixhours. As climate impacts gather momentum, itwill be likely that building regulations will haveto include minimum standards for thermal mass(RIBA, 2007).

Phase change materials (PCMs) cansupplement thermal mass. PCM plaster containsnodules of wax that change from a liquid to asolid and vice versa according to thetemperature, thereby absorbing or releasing heat.PCMs can be located in ceiling voids into whichair is drawn by a fan, either to be recirculated induring the day or released to the exterior fornight time cooling.2

There may be objections to theserecommendations on the grounds thatheavyweight construction involves substantiallymore embodied energy than the lightweightcounterpart.The repost is that it will have a longlife expectancy as a whole and in respect of itscomponents. This comes at a price. However,according to engineering consultants Atelier Ten,‘High mass, conventional buildings with testedconventional materials have a much longer life inuse than lightweight construction. The lifespanof many lightweight buildings, with theirreliance on mastics and exposed metals, is oftenquite short – as little as 25 years is notuncommon. On the other hand, conventionaland traditional buildings have been shown to lasthundreds of years.’

In many instances the on-costs could beoffset by lower insurance premiums. Wherehomes are due to be built on flood plains onlyradical measures may make propertiesinsurable. There is always the ‘peace of mind’factor of a property that will appreciate invalue as the effects of climate change becomeever more apparent.



Passive solar gain

Not all environmental impacts come with aprice tag. In the 1960s, passive solar gain becamethe first step on a journey that has culminated inthe idea of zero carbon homes (Figure 5.2).

Solar gain from a low angle winter sun is stilla valuable commodity that should beincorporated in design. Triple-glazed windowsand insulated shutters offer protection when thecold is not alleviated by solar gain.

Torrential rain and flash floodsHere again, there is a contrast between lightweightand masonry houses.The combination of rain andhigh winds has proved too much for some timberframed residential developments in Europe. In thefuture, structural robustness will be a much prizedvirtue for homes.

The UK, mainland Europe and the US haveall experienced severe disruption caused byepisodes of torrential rain, usually in the hills

where runoff discharges into rivers and streams.The ground is unable to soak up such intensiveinundation with the result that watercoursesdownstream overflow and overwhelm rural andurban drainage systems. With a house buildingprogramme as ambitious as that declared by theUK government, it is inevitable that homes willbe built in areas that have experienced severeflash flooding, as illustrated in Chapter 2. In thiscase additional measures must be adopted, bothin terms of individual homes and the widerenvironment. For example, in the eco-village ofUpton in Northampton, the risk of flooding hasbeen reduced by a network of substantialdrainage channels running parallel to the houses(Figure 5.3).

The flash flood problem has beenexacerbated by extensive developments requiringlarge areas of hard surface with runoffconsequences. In new developments, likesupermarkets, it must become mandatory forhard surfaces other than roads to be porous.Thisshould also apply to the paving over of domesticgardens to create parking in areas where on-streetparking is becoming more difficult and/orexpensive.

Building over flood plain areas is particularlyhazardous, yet, as mentioned, the pressure fornew homes makes such development inevitable.This is why special measures need to be taken toenable such homes to remain habitable and toobtain insurance. Speaking at an Institute ofEconomic Affairs conference The Future ofGeneral Insurance, Dr Paul Leinster, chiefexecutive of the New Environment Agency,warned the insurance industry that flood-hithouses should be rebuilt to be better preparedfor flooding.‘Where homes are flooded, we wantthem rebuilt to more flood resilient standards.’He told the conference that the annual cost ofdamage from flooding could rise from thepresent £1 billion to £25 billion by 2080.Thenumber at a high risk from flooding could risefrom 1.5 million to 3.5 million. He went on toadvise that insurance companies could offerincentives to people to take flood protectionmeasures. This should be equally, or more, truefor new developments.


Source: Architect: the author

Figure 5.2 Passive solar house, 1968


Structural recommendationsThe most obvious flood protection strategy is toraise buildings on stilts. This would be moststraightforward with a steel frame option thatwould serve both individual houses and multi-storey apartments. The open ground floor would provide parking space that could beevacuated on the announcement of floodwarnings (Figure 5.4).

Alternatively, there are numerouswaterproofing systems available, some of whichconsist of a surface coating. For example, a paint-on material Penetron creates a tight crystallineweb within the structure of concrete, making itwatertight. However, traditionalists will claimthat the only reliable, long-life technique able towithstand the pressure from serious flooding istanking. Figure 5.5 illustrates how this isachieved in a high thermal mass structure.

At the same time, doors and windows thatextend below dado height should havewatertight seals.The most fail-safe method would

be inflatable seals triggered manually by the samemechanism as that used in vehicle air bags.

The most effective design for flood-proneareas involves the inclusion of a semi-basement.This can be reasonably cost-effective if theexcavation adopts the cut-and-fill method,avoiding earth removal. This method has theadvantage of raising the ground floor at least onemetre above ground level.The BREEAM Eco-homes recommendation is:

Where assessed development is situated in aflood zone that is defined as having amedium annual probability of flooding, theground level of all dwellings and access tothem and the site are designed so that theyare at least 600mm above the design level ofthe flood zone.

(EcoHomes and the Code forSustainable Homes, BRE, 2007)

In either case, the problem of access for thedisabled remains to be resolved.


Figure 5.3 Storm ditch between rows of houses, Upton, Northampton, UK


A detailed cost analysis will be necessary todetermine which is the more cost-effectivebetween the steel frame and masonry systems.The advantage of the former is that much of itcan be prefabricated,whereas the latter has betterthermal mass.

In Holland there is a growing appetite forhomes with in-built flotation chambers.However, these are mostly intended aspermanent floating homes which can rise andfall as water level dictates. The time may comewhen the shortage of land following sea levelrise will make this an option for the UK. Itwould seem to be an extravagance at present.

Appliances will need special attention. Aretrofit flood protection programme in SouthYorkshire has provided ‘bung’ seals for WCs; notelegant but presumably effective, pending design

changes. Sanitary ware manufacturers will haveto be persuaded to provide basins, baths andshowers with screw-down plugs and withoutoverflow openings.

In the 2007 floods in Gloucestershire theinundation of a major electricity substation wasjust avoided. Had it been flooded, thousands ofhomes would have been without electricityperhaps for weeks. In flood risk areas like theSevern and Thames valleys it would be prudentfor roof PVs to serve dual AC/DC appliancesand fittings as well as keeping a bank of batteriesfully charged.

The rising demand for new houses and thepressure to bring many of them within the rangeof first-time buyers highlights the dilemmafacing developers and designers on the one handand the government responsible for standards on


300 mminsulation

100 mm insulation

internal walls (thermal mass)

Ring beam

Aerogel boards int. liningTriple glazing

pre-cast beams withfairface exposed soffit

prefab insulated timberframed panels withinsteel structure

75 mm rigid insulationpre-cast conc. beams

Void(Car space)

150 x 150 mmsteel columns

RSJ

Ground level

RSJ

RS channel

external insulationwith waterproof render

Steel stress plate

100 mm dense concrete block

Figure 5.4 Steel frame construction with open ground floor


the other. Is it a case of the best being the enemyof the good? The purpose of this and subsequentchapters is to consider the design challengeassuming the worst case climate changeoutcome. Given a near miracle, CO2 emissionsmay be stabilized before runaway climate changeis triggered. However, the prospect of peak oiland rapidly diminishing reserves is beyond thescope of miracles. Energy efficiency and fossilfree alternatives for power are not options butinevitabilities.

Some home buyers will be aware of thevalue of investing in a near climate-proof home,‘but this translates only weakly into buying

preferences: it ranks well behind the keyrequirements of price, size and location. This isinsufficient to motivate housebuilders or,through them, the rest of the market’ (CallcutReview, 2007, p89).

Only radical revision of the buildingregulations will succeed in delivering the qualityof homes that will withstand the impacts of thecoming decades.

Figure 5.5 is an outline idea of the kind ofconstruction that should protect against hightemperatures and all but the worst of flash floods.It has traditional tanking to at least 1m aboveground level and inflatable seals to doors and


Figure 5.5 Suggested construction details of near-climate-proof houses

300mm insulation

U-clamp

Concrete ring beam anchored to walls

pre-cast conc. beams with exposed soffit

phase change material plaster

tile floor finish50mm insulation tanking

SCALE 1 : 10

strip foundation reinforced againstground shrinkage

engineering brick to dpc

damp proof membrane

140mm high density blocks

insulating render


marine-type seals to windows.There would alsobe measures to protect against upsurge viaappliances. High thermal mass is provided byexternal walls, floors and partitions. PCM plastercould enhance the thermal mass.

Extra structural strength, such as a reinforcedconcrete ring beam securing the roof members,is provided to protect against hurricane levelstorms. Reinforced foundations protect againstdamage through ground shrinkage, which can bean effect of a severe drought – also one of thepredicted impacts of climate change. Foldingshutters protect quadruple-glazed windows.Masonry construction guarantees that thehighest air tightness standard will be achieved inconjunction with heat recovery low powermechanical ventilation. The warm air could beenhanced by a ground source heat pump. Theextended south facing 30° roof would becovered with PVs and solar thermal panels.Substantial eaves overhangs will offer solarshading in summer. In winter the south elevationwould make the most of passive solar gain.Thiscould be the nearest we ever get to a zero carbonhouse.

There will be those who argue that suchbuilding practices will involve much greaterembodied energy than the timber framealternative. Expended energy is a function ofmaterials and construction on the one hand andlife expectancy on the other. On this basis highthermal mass masonry homes could show amuch better balance in their energy accountthan their timber counterparts.Then there is thematter of robustness.

Advocates of timber may point to Tudortimber frame buildings that are still standing after500 years. However, these were usuallyconstructed of hardwood, mostly oak, often of across section with a massive margin of safety(redundancy). Even so, oak is not infallible. In1983 I was commissioned to carry out arestoration survey in the President’s Lodge inCloister Court at Queens’ College, Cambridge.This included a timber long gallery placed abovea brick cloister. A massive oak ‘keel’ beamrunning the length of the centre of the cloisterwas supporting the floor of the long gallery. Idiscovered this had split along its length at the

point where floor joists were halved into it.Engineers consulted on the matter consideredthat there could have been a catastrophic collapseat any time, given the right wind loading. Inmitigation, the beam was at least 400 years old(Smith, 1983).

Solar assisted desiccantdehumidification with airconditioningIn periods of high temperature it will benecessary for high thermal mass homes to expeldaytime accumulated heat by night purging.Thiscan be achieved by solar-driven desiccantcooling, which involves a cycle including adesiccant wheel and thermal wheel in tandem toprovide both cooling and dehumidification(Figure 5.6). A more detailed explanation of thesystem is given in the Appendix to this chapter.

An argument that continues to be raisedagainst add-on costs due to climate change isthat there is still uncertainty in the science.Therefore it is imprudent to invest now in futureimpacts that may never arise. This view iscountered by the chief scientist at the MetOffice.

One should not over-state uncertainty…Some features in current predictions for theUK are expected on physical grounds and areconsistent across a range of models, includingsignificant warming, rise in sea level andincreased winter rainfall… The aim, [of theMet Office] as ever, is to ensure thatgovernment and industry have the bestavailable climate advice to guide futureinvestment.

(Mitchell, 2008, p26)

It is inevitable that additional costs ofconstruction making these sorts of provisionswill be significantly higher than for lightweightconstructions, but these should be offset byreduced insurance costs and the inherent valueof a climate-secure investment.There is also theavoided cost of energy/CO2 that is likely to beincurred by portable air conditioning units that



lightweight frame structures will need duringtorrid summers.

Finally, there is rising concern that Level 6 ofthe Code for Sustainable Homes can only beachieved with energy from onsite renewables.Analternative is a renewable energy levy per kg ofCO2 paid by the developer according to a desktop calculation of the annual per m2 CO2 inexcess of zero carbon. The levy should beadministered by a Trust independent ofgovernment with its income earmarked for theprovision of utility scale renewables. Each housewould have its energy monitored showing itsCO2 equivalent.After one year a post occupancyevaluation (POE) would adjust the levy amountas necessary, with any excess added to energybills. This would be more efficient and reliablethan offsetting schemes, which have thrown upnumerous problems.

Appendix

Desiccant dehumidification andevaporative cooling

In some environments a combination of hightemperature and high humidity defies a remedyby conventional air conditioning that is biasedtowards temperature rather than humidity.

Dehumidification is merely a by-product ofbringing the temperature down to below thedew point of the air causing condensation.

A desiccant is a hygroscopic material, liquidor solid, which can extract moisture from humidair, gas or liquids. Liquid desiccants work byabsorption – moisture is taken up by chemicalaction. Solid desiccants have a large internal areacapable of absorbing significant quantities ofwater by capillary action. Examples of efficientdesiccants are:

• silica gel;• activated alumina;• lithium salts;• triethylene glycol.

This method of dehumidification requires aheating stage in the process to dry or regeneratethe desiccant material and requires a temperaturerange of 60–90°C. One option is to supply theheat by means of evacuated tube solar collectors,backed up by natural gas when insolation isinadequate.Alternatively waste heat, for examplefrom a Stirling CHP unit, may be exploited.

As a full alternative to air conditioning,desiccant dehumidification can be used inconjunction with evaporative cooling. Afterbeing dried by the revolving desiccant wheel, theair passes through a heat exchanger such as a


1

9 8 7 6 5

2 3 4Outside air

Indirect system

Moistureflow

HeaterThermalwheel

Dessicantwheel

Heatflow

Evaporativecooler

Supply air

Evaporativecooler

Exhaust airand moisturefrom dessicantwheel

Return air

Figure 5.6 Desiccant wheel and thermal wheel dehumidification and cooling


thermal wheel for cooling. If necessary furthercooling may be achieved by an evaporativecooler before the air is supplied to the building.

The exhaust air at room temperature alsopasses through an evaporative cooler and thenthrough the thermal wheel, chilling it in theprocess.This enables the thermal wheel to coolthe supply air.After passing through the thermalwheel, the air is heated and directed through thedesiccant wheel to remove moisture and is thenexpelled to the atmosphere.

There are problems with the system. It is notamenable to precise temperature and humidity

control and it is not as efficient in dry climates.On the positive side it does provide a full freshair system. (For further explanation see Smith,2007, ch. 3).

Notes1 Alternatively a Kingspan KS1000 kingzip

standing seam roof system.2 A fuller description of cooling in buildings is

contained in Chapter 3, ‘Low energy techniquesfor cooling’ of Smith (2007).



The UK government’s target is to make all newhomes zero carbon by 2016. Is this a credibleobjective? In the case of photovoltaic cells (PVs)an average household would need about 10m2 ofcells mounted on a south-facing roof to be ableto meet a reasonable fraction of its electricityneeds.This is high grade energy. But a substantialpart of a household’s energy needs are met in theform of low grade energy for space heating anddomestic hot water. Economically, the installedcost of solar thermal panels is only one quarterthat of PVs.The average house does not have theroof area to provide for both solar electric andsolar thermal energy. At the present state oftechnology, it would be difficult for the averagehome to be zero carbon. Even the most energyefficient house will still need an additional sourceof energy either in the form of offsite electricityor from a combined heat and power (CHP) unitfrom a local grid or power from the national grid.

The problem is even clearer on the nationalscale. For the country to be totally served byrenewable energy, which excludes nuclear andcoal with carbon capture and storage (CCS),huge areas of land and sea would be consumedby any one of the main technologies. Forexample, take biomass: even if 75 per cent of thecountry were to be covered with energy crops,this would still not be nearly enough to meet theenergy needs of the nation. Meeting electricitydemand from PVs would require PV farmscovering an area the size of Wales.

The bottom line is that in the transition fromthe era of oil and gas to renewables, we will becompelled to make drastic reductions in energyconsumption from buildings, industry andtransport. As far as houses are concerned, theywill have to make minimal demands on externalenergy sources, which means achieving levels ofenergy efficiency well in excess of level 6 of theSustainability Code.

At present the capacity of the UK nationalgrid is around 75GW, allowing for a peakdemand of 60GW. By the 2020s around 30 percent of UK generating capacity will have beendecommissioned.

At the present rate of replacement byrenewable technologies, there will be aconsiderable energy black hole in that decade if notbefore. A spokesman for the Association ofElectricity Producers has stated: ‘We are fastapproaching a generation gap and at least £100billion needs to be spent on new and greenerpower stations.’ This was endorsed by theParliamentary Business and Enterprise Committee,which has warned that ‘new capacity to store andgenerate electricity must be created if a disastrousenergy shortfall is to be avoided’ (ParliamentaryBusiness and Enterprise Committee, 2008).

Homes account for 27 per cent of UKenergy, therefore they should be designed tomake minimum demands on the grid.There is agood chance that within the next decade, thecapacity of the grid will be reduced from the

6

Building-integrated Solar Electricity


present ~75GW, so energy-light homes will be asmuch a matter of social responsibility as of self-interest. An optimum assessment by the UKEnergy Saving Trust is that domestic buildingintegrated renewables could meet 40 per cent ofthe UK’s electricity demand.

In future decades the role of houses asmicro-power stations will be crucial.The TyndallCentre estimates the UK potential fromrenewables is 5.7MWh/person/year. DavidMackay puts the figure at 6.6MWh/person/yearassuming public opposition is eliminated(MacKay, 2008).

The UK government’s requirement is thatCode level 6 new homes should obtainsupplementary energy either from onsite orintegral renewable sources. The most obvioussource is solar energy. But first there are somefundamental issues to be considered.The benefitsof solar radiation are affected by latitude,orientation and angle. Figure 6.2 comparesvariations between Barcelona, Florence, Zurich,Bristol, Den Haag and Malmo. For example, a

30 degree south-facing pitched roof inBarcelona receives ~1650kWh/m2/year of solarradiation. Bristol, on the other hand, can onlyexpect ~1200kWh/m2/year. A 30 degree east-west pitched roof receives in both cases200kWh/m2/year less; similar to flat roofs.

As a further example, Cambridge in the UKis on latitude 52° and the sunlight hitting theearth at noon on a spring or autumn day is ~60 per cent of that at the equator. In this city atypical domestic roof array of crystalline silicon(cSi) cells would have a peak output of about4kW and a yearly average of 12kWh/day. A casestudy cited by Mackay is a 25m2 crystalline silicon(cSi) array on a house roof in Cambridgeshireinstalled in 2006. It produces a year-round averageof 12kWh per day, which amounts to 20W/m2 ofpanels (Mackay, 2008, p41).

Figure 6.2 illustrates the efficiency of averagePV cells at different angles and orientation.

What it shows is that PV facades may makea significant solar contribution in combinationwith roof mounted cells.


Source: Energie Institut Cerda, Spain 2001 and TFM, Barcelona

Figure 6.1 European solar radiation map in GJ/m2/year

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.8 2.6

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.2

2.42.4

2.6

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Photovoltaic cellsWhilst PVs are not the most cost-effective formof domestic renewable energy, the idea ofproducing high grade energy in the form ofelectricity has a psychological appeal. In thisregard the UK is still at a serious disadvantagecompared with other EU partners in that it hasstill to implement a feed-in tariff (FIT). This iswhen renewable energy fed to the grid receives apremium price above the supply price toconsumers.No doubt the day will come when wefollow the example of Germany and Spain whereFITs have spawned a vibrant manufacturingsector to meet burgeoning demand.

First generation solar cells

As yet, the market is dominated by firstgeneration cSi cells, which have a peak efficiencyof around 20 per cent. They are expensive andtheir payback time is well in excess of theirexpected lifetime, it is only with a generous FITthat they become attractive.

Historially there have been problems. A large scale urban 1.35MWp cSi PV project was

completed in The Netherlands in 1999 in thenew town of Nieuwland, near Amersfoort,comprising 550 houses, an elementary school, akindergarten and a sports complex.This projecthas exposed problems that can arise in large-scalecommunity PV projects, for example, 11 percent of respondents in a survey were unawarethat their houses were connected to PVs(Renewable Energy World, Sept–Oct 2008,pp114–123).

Despite its worldwide fame, some residents areeven asking for their cells to be removed. Therehave been complaints about the standard ofmaintenance over the years.This is partly due to achange in the political complexion of the Dutchgovernment, which no longer has a commitmentto PVs, offering no incentives for their energybetween 2003 and 2008. Changes in homeownership and ownership of the utilities has addedto the project’s problems. At the same time,incoming tenants or owners may be less committedto the project and therefore it is essential that fromthe outset, there is a robust maintenance contract inplace. This may be a remote monitoring servicethat can check yield and performance with the aimof optimizing energy output and systemmaintenance. In contrast, when individual home

Building-integrated Solar Electricity 55

Source: Solar ElectriCity Guide – new solutions in energy supply, Energie, 2001, p23

Figure 6.2 City comparisons of solar radiation (kWh/m2/year); 30–36° south-tilted roofs, flat roofs, and 30° tiltedroofs east or west on south-facing facades

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

1800Maximum

Flat roof

30˚ tilted roof EW

South facade

Barcelona Florance Zurich Bristol Den haag Maimö


owners install PVs, they are committed tomaintaining them to safeguard their investment andachieve peak performance.

Second generation solar cells

Thin film technology

Market analysts predict that cSi technology willsoon be overtaken by second generation thin filmsystems. These are mostly less efficient than cSicells but are much cheaper to produce on arolling process.Therefore they may well win on acost per watt basis and consequently this is wheremost commercial research is focused because ofthe capability of mass production and marketcompetitiveness.Thin film technology comprisessemiconductor compounds sprayed onto aflexible substrate. It is claimed that they use aslittle as 1 per cent of the volume of material thatcSi cells require. By adjusting the ingredients ofthe film, the system can capture energy fromdifferent wavelengths of light. For example, cellsthat use copper, indium, gallium and selenium(CIGS) can reach an efficiency of 19 per cent fora fraction of the cost of cSi cells. It is expectedthey will achieve grid parity in cost within fiveyears. Cadmium telluride (CdTe) cells are alsoamong the successes in this category.

Another product among the secondgeneration of solar cells are dye-based cells thatmimic the process of photosynthesis. Developedby Michael Gratzel and Brian O’Regan of theUniversity of Lausanne, these cells use a dyecontaining ruthenium ions that absorb visiblelight analogous to chlorophyll in nature.The dyeis applied to nanocrystals of the semi-conductortitanium dioxide or ‘titania’.The titania have theelectronic property of being able to drawelectrons from the ruthenium and propel themoff into an electrical circuit.

The construction of the cell involvessandwiching a 10 micrometre thick film of dye-coated titania between two transparentelectrodes.The tightly packed nanocrystals forma porous film that maximizes the light absorbingcapacity of the cell. The space between theelectrodes is filled with a liquid electrolytecontaining iodine ions.These ions replace thoseknocked out of the dye by the action of the

photons. The two electrodes are connected toform a circuit that carries the electrical discharge.

The conversion efficiency is around 10 percent in direct sunlight but up to 15 per cent inthe diffuse light of cloudy days, which makesthese cells especially suitable for northern climes.The cost is claimed to be only 20 per cent of theprice of crystalline silicon, and may be even lesssince huge deposits of titanium have beendiscovered in Australia.

Third generation solar cells

The future will tend to be dominated byimproving the performance and lowering thecost of second generation cells such as theGratzel PVs. The University of Washington isresponsible for a step change in the technologyof dye-sensitized solar cells. Researchers havefound that using tiny grains of photo-sensitivematerial ~15 nanometres across and combiningthem into larger ‘clumps’ about 300 nanometresacross causes light to be scattered.This means thelight travels a longer distance within the solarcell.The complex internal structure of these ballscreates a surface area of about 1000ft2, which iscoated with a dye that captures light. By usingtitanium oxide-based dye-sensitized solar cells,the expectation is that this ‘popcorn ball’technology will push efficiency well over the 11per cent of the Gratzel cell (Figure 6.4).


65%

70%

100%

90%

95%

95%

W

S

E

75%

65%50%

Source: Renewable Energy World, July–Aug 2005, p242

Figure 6.3 PV efficiency according to angle andorientation


Plastic solar cellsPlastics that are able to conduct electricity allowincoming light to liberate electrons. Cells aremade by a plastic in liquid form being applied to a substrate, somewhat analogous to aprinting process. The immediate goal is toachieve 10 per cent efficiency. Even at thisefficiency such cells should be attractive to themarket because of their very low manufacturingcosts.

Another strand of research seeks to optimizethe capabilities of silicon by multiplying the levelof sunlight falling into a cell. Concentrated solarcells focusing on PV crystals can achieveefficiencies of 40 per cent. At the University ofDelaware, scientists using a concentration of 20suns (20 times the power of the sun) have achieved42.8 per cent efficiency.This is done by splittingthe incoming light into its constituent wavelengthsand directing each wavelength to a chemical that optimizes its electricity conversion. Thedisadvantages of such cells are, first, that theyrequire direct sunlight to operate efficiently, and,second, that they continue to be expensive.

The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar EnergyResearch is also breaking new ground inconcentrating solar cell technology with multi-junction cells that reach 37.9 per cent efficiency.This is realized through a solar concentration ofbetween 300–600 suns.

A technology with integrated cooling forconcentrated solar PVs has been patented bySUNGRI and will be available for both on-and-off-grid by 2010 (Figure 6.5).

An alternative version of concentratortechnology has been developed by scientists atMIT. This system does not involve tracking orcooling systems. The principle is that light iscollected over the area of a multi-layer assemblyof glass forming a solar cell.The solar energy isthen transported to the edges of the glass whereit encounters PV cells positioned round theedges of the window. Dye molecules are coatedon the layers of glass and they work together toabsorb light across a range of wavelengths. Lightis then re-emitted at a different wavelength andtransported across the pane to solar cells around

the perimeter of the glass.This way solar energycollection is optimized at each wavelength. It isclaimed that concentrating light around theboundary of a solar panel in this way increasesthe electricity obtained from each solar cell by afactor of 40. In addition, the nature of the cellsalso enables them to function as a window, albeitwith reduced transmission efficiency.


Source: Department of Materials Science and Engineering, University of

Washington

Figure 6.4 ‘Popcorn-ball’ clusters comprising grains15 nanometres across

Source: Renewable Energy World, May–June 2008, p12

Figure 6.5 SUNRGI XCPV system of concentratedsolar cells with proprietary method of cooling the cells


The development team at MIT believes thatbecause the system is straightforward tomanufacture, it could be ready for market within3 years and at a considerably reduced costcompared with conventional PVs.

The battle lines are now being clearly drawnbetween the upgrading of crystalline silicontechnology through solar concentration and thinfilm technologies. Writing in the New Scientistwith regard to the latter, Bennett Daviss states:‘perhaps that’s where the true promise of solarpower lies, not in expensive high-efficiency cells,but in clever new designs that are dirt cheap toproduce’ (Daviss, 2008, p37). The co-inventor of PV plastics, Allen Heeger, believes that ‘The critical comparison is dollars per watt’(Daviss, 2008,p37).There is a growing perceptionthat this is where the future of PVs lies.

Photovoltaics and urban designTowns and cities present an ideal opportunity forthe exploitation of PVs. They have a highconcentration of potential PV sites with a heavyenergy demand. At the same time the physicalinfrastructure can support localized electricitygeneration. It is estimated that installing PVs onsuitable walls and roofs could generate up to 25 per cent of total demand. The biggestopportunity for PVs is as systems embedded inbuildings. It is expected that building integratedPVs (BIPVs) will account for 50 per cent of theworld PV installations by 2010, with thepercentage being significantly higher in Europe.

The widescale adoption of PVs in the urbanenvironment will depend on the acceptance ofthe visual change it will bring about, especiallyin historic situations.There is still a barrier to beovercome and planning policy guidance mayhave to be amended to create a presumption infavour of retrofitting PVs to buildings.

The efficiency of PVs in a given location willdepend on factors such as:

• fairly consistent roof heights – compactdevelopments are ideal for roof mounted PVs;

• orientation;

• openness of the aspect – a more open urbangrain may allow the potential of facade PVsto be exploited;

• overshading – especially in the context ofseasonal changes in the sun’s angle.

Surface to volume ratio

The surface area available for either facade orroof PV installation is largely determined by thesurface to volume ratio.A high ratio of surface tovolume suggests opportunities for facadeintegrated PVs. However, in high densitysituations overshading will limit facadeopportunities. On the other hand, lower valuesindicate opportunities for roof PV installation.

The spacing between buildings is also animportant factor in determining facade PVopportunities. Wide spaces between buildingswith a southerly aspect will be particularly suitedto facade BIPV.Also, wide streets and city squaresprovide excellent opportunities for this PVmode. A tighter urban grain points to roofmounted PVs. The suitability of BIPVs isdependent upon a variety of factors. Forexample, flat roofs are the most appropriate sitesin city centres, combining flexibility withunobtrusiveness. When considering pitchedroofs, the orientation, angle of tilt and aestheticimpact all have to be taken into account.

Reflected light is a useful supplemental formof energy for PVs. Many facades in city centreshave high reflectance values offering significantlevels of diffuse light for facade PVs on oppositeelevations, thus making orientation less important.In glazed curtain wall buildings solar shading isnow de rigueur. Here is a further opportunity toincorporate PVs into shading devices. Whenoffice blocks are refurbished the incorporation ofPVs into a facade becomes cost-effective.

In conservation areas there are particularsensitivities. The next generation of thin filmPVs look like offering opportunities to integratePVs into buildings without compromising theirhistoric integrity.

The conclusion to be drawn from thissection is that places on the latitude of the UKwill benefit the most from thin film solar



technology, which optimizes light rather thanjust sunlight. In southern Europe concentratedsolar PVs on a domestic scale may be cost-effective since a relatively small cell area mayprovide adequate electricity. Chapter 14discusses how southern Europe is beginning to exploit concentrated solar energy at theutility scale.

Retrofit building integrated PVs

A building that featured in Sustainability at theCutting Edge (Smith, 2007) is the CIS Tower(Co-operative Insurance Society) in Manchester

(Figure 6.6). It is illustrated here because it is stillthe most ambitious example of retrofitted PVs inthe UK. Whilst PVs are not yet cost-effectivewithout an attractive feed-in tariff, whereextensive facade refurbishment is needed, theadditional cost can get closer to being aneconomic option.This is one factor that causedthe CIS management to turn the service towerof its HQ into a vertical power station. It wasdesigned to produce 800,000kWh/year. Despitethe proliferation of tower blocks in the city, theCIS Tower remains a landmark building,illustrating how retrofit PVs can also make it asignature building.


Source: Pam Smith

Figure 6.6 CIS Tower, Manchester, with retrofitted PVs


Solar thermal energySolar radiation is the most abundant source ofenergy at 219,000TWh per year. Solar thermaland photovoltaics (PVs) are the two technologiesthat directly exploit it. PVs tend to attract mostattention, probably because it is a ‘high tech’ andmodern technology that generates a product thatcan serve a variety of purposes. It is at the cuttingedge of science and still has considerabledevelopmental potential. Solar thermal, on theother hand, is a comparatively low tech systemthat has a long history in countries with generoussunshine. Another problem for solar thermal isthat it does not contribute directly to reductionsin CO2, nor is it linked to major industrialcompanies. Excess energy cannot be exported tothe national grid. It is significant that theInternational Energy Agency omitted it from its2008 report on renewables to the G8 countries.

Under the 2008 EU agreement to produce20 per cent of energy from renewables by 2020,the UK’s proportion is 15 per cent. Thegovernment’s Renewable Energy Strategysuggests that, in order to meet the 15 per centtarget, it might be easier to increase the share ofrenewable heat rather than increase the level ofrenewable electricity. This is partly because heatdoes not create complications for the grid andalso because the UK’s heavy reliance on windgeneration leaves it potentially with aconsiderable renewables shortfall. In the UK heataccounts for 49 per cent of final energy demandand 47 per cent of CO2 emissions. Space heating,

ventilation and water heating are the mainconstituents. The Renewable Energy Strategyconcludes that it will be necessary to ‘develop acompletely new approach to renewable heat,providing substantial incentives to jump-start thisnew market’ (DECC, 2008a).

This represents a paradigm shift: promotingrenewable heat into the pantheon of therenewables gods such as PVs and wind. Thegovernment acknowledges that subsidies will benecessary, for example a Renewable HeatIncentive Scheme in the form of a feed-in tariffmeasured in £/MWh thermal.These are some ofthe components of a recommended RenewableHeat Incentive regime so that it makes a significantcontribution to CO2 abatement.

Even in the UK, on a south-facing roof insouthern England vacuum tube collectors canachieve 50 per cent efficiency compared with apeak of 20 per cent for current PVs. Dependingon location, a 10m2 array of solar collectorswould generate 4MWh of heat per year. Figure7.1 shows the results of an experimental 3m2

solar thermal panel producing average solarpower of 3.8kWh/day.The experiment assumeda consumption of 100 litres of water at 60°C perday. The graph shows a 1.5–2kWh/day gapbetween total heat generated (black line) and hotwater consumed (red line). The green linesrepresent the solar thermal power generated.Themagenta line at the bottom is the electricity usedto power the system (Mackay, 2008, p40). Thisarea of solar panel would be typical for anaverage family house.

7

Sun, Earth, Wind and Water


Sun, Earth,Wind and Water 61

Central solar heating plants forseasonal storage (CSHPSS)

Banking heat in summer to meet winterexpenditure is the principle behind seasonalstorage. There are three principal storagetechnologies.

• Aquifer heat storage – Naturally occurringaquifers are charged with heat via wellsduring the warming season. In winter thesystem goes into reverse and the warmth isdistributed through the district network.

• Gravel/water heat storage – A pit with awatertight plastic liner is filled with agravel–water mix as the storage medium.Thestorage container is insulated at the sides andtop, and at the base for small installations.Heat is fed into and drawn out of the storagetank both directly and indirectly.

• Hot-water storage – This comprises a steelor concrete insulated tank built partly orwholly into the ground.

Central solar plants with seasonal storage aim at asolar fraction of at least 50 per cent of the totalheat demand for space heating and domestic hot

water for a housing estate of at least 100apartments. The solar fraction is that part of thetotal annual energy demand that is met by solarenergy. For all these installations it is necessary toreceive authorization from the relevant waterauthority.

By 2003 Europe had 45MW of installedthermal power from solar collector areas of over500m2.The ten largest installations in Europe arein Denmark, Sweden, Germany and TheNetherlands, mostly serving housing complexes.Germany’s first solar assisted district heatingprojects, launched as part of a governmentresearch project ‘Solarthermie 2000’, were atRavensburg and Neckarsulm.These have alreadyproved valuable test beds for subsequent schemes.

One of the largest projects is atFriedrichshafen and it serves well to illustrate thesystem (Figure 7.2). The heat from 5600m2 ofsolar collectors on the roofs of eight housingblocks containing 570 apartments is transportedto a central heating unit or substation. It is thendistributed to the apartments as required. Theheated living area amounts to 39,500m2.

Surplus summer heat is directed to theseasonal heat store, which, in this case, is of thehot water variety, capable of storing 12,000m3.

Figure 7.1 Solar power outputs from 3m2 solar thermal panels

0J F

Pow

er (

kWh/

d)

M MA J J A S O N D

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Controller

Hot water used

Solar power

Immersion heater

Total heat generated



The heat delivery of the system amounts to 1915MWh/year and the solar fraction is 47 per cent.The month by month ratio betweensolar- and fossil-based energy indicates that fromApril to November inclusive, solar energyaccounts for almost the total demand, beingprincipally domestic hot water (Figure 7.3).

Hybrid technology

The fusion of solar electric with solar thermalenergy is the ultimate destiny of bothtechnologies. Hybrid PV/thermal systems canachieve the maximum conversion rate ofabsorbed solar radiation. Heat is extracted fromthe PV modules and used to heat either water orair whilst, at the same time, keeping the PVs atmaximum efficiency by cooling the cells. Apioneering scheme in the UK was installed at

Beaufort Court Renewable Energy Centre,created by Studio E Architects. A PV/thermal(PVT) roof comprising 54m2 of PVT panels wasconstructed over a biomass store.The 170m2 solararray comprises 54m2 of hybrid PVT panels and116m2 of solar thermal panels. The PVT panelsconsist of a photovoltaic module, which convertslight into electricity, and a copper heat exchangeron the back to capture the remaining solarenergy.The panels have been developed by ECNin The Netherlands, incorporating Shell Solar PVelements and Zen Solar thermal elements.Theyproduce electricity and hot water (Figure 7.4).

An alternative approach has been devised byHeliodynamics.Their units surround small, highgrade gallium arsenide PV cells with arrays ofslow moving flat mirrors. These focus sunlightonto the PV, which can deliver both electricityand hot water.This could be a technology witha big future.

Source: Courtesy of Renewable Energy World

Figure 7.2 Diagram of the CSHPSS system, Friedrichshafen, Germany

Heattransfersubstation

Heating central

Freshwater

Solar networkDistrict heating network

Hot water heat storage (seasonal storage)

cc

Solar co

llectors

Heattransfersubstation

Freshwater

cc

Solar co

llectors

Hottap

water

Hottap

water

Gasburner



Fossil energy supply Solar energy gain

Figure 7.3 Friedrichshafen delivered energy in MWh per year

Aluminium glazing system

Insulation

Absorber sheetPhotovoltaic cells

3mm Toughened glass

Water in

Water out

DC Electrical cable to invertors

Heat transfer pipework

Source: Courtesy of Studio E Architects

Figure 7.4 PV/thermal hybrid panels



Seasonal underground heat store

The underground heat store is an 1100m3 bodyof water that stores the heat generated by PVTand solar thermal panels for use in buildingsduring the colder months.The top of the store isinsulated with a floating lid of 500mm expandedpolystyrene. It is hinged around the perimeter toallow for the expansion and contraction of thewater and the design also incorporates asuspension system to support the roof should thewater level reduce. The sloping sides areuninsulated. As long as the ground around thestore is kept dry, it will act as an insulator andadditional thermal mass, increasing the capacityof the store. The high specific heat capacity ofwater (4.2kJ/kg°C) makes it a good choice forstoring heat.

During the summer there will be little or nodemand for heat in the building, so the heatgenerated by the PVT array will be destined forthe heat store. In the autumn some of the solarheat generated will be used directly in thebuildings and the excess will be added to the heat store.The temperature of the water in thestore will gradually rise over the summer and earlyautumn. During the winter the solar heatgenerated will be less than the building’s heat load, and heat will be extracted from the heatstore to heat the incoming air to the building.Thetemperature of the water in the store will drop asthe heat is extracted. Some heat will also be lost tothe surroundings.This is estimated to be about 50per cent of the total heat put into the store overthe summer. The relatively low grade heat fromthe store can be used to preheat air coming intothe building, as the outside air will be at a lowertemperature than the water.

So far polycrystalline and amorphouscrystalline cells have been used in this way andtrials have been successful in a domesticthermosyphonic system (as opposed to apumped system).The recovered heat is used fordomestic hot water. Larger systems have beendevised, suitable for apartment blocks and smalloffices.

This dual capability had the additionalbenefit of improving the cost-effectiveness ofeach technology when utilized separately.

Small-scale windIt is unlikely that micro-wind power will play asignificant role in bringing about the energyrevolution of the coming decades.Three factorsare involved: first the capacity or ‘load’ factor of turbines as a whole; at best this is around 30 per cent. This is the proportion of the ratedcapacity of a machine that can be delivered to ahousehold or the grid. Second, wind speeds in abuilt-up area are unreliable and turbulent due tothe configuration of buildings, streets and openspaces. Third, it is generally considered that anaverage wind speed of 7m/second or 16mph isnecessary for the commercial success of windpower. Only about 33 per cent of the UK landarea has such speeds (Mackay, 2008).

Figure 7.5 shows the distribution of averagesummer and winter wind speeds in the UK.Thefigure concentrates mostly on Scotland wherethe greatest concentration of wind farms is to befound. Very few cross the economic viabilitythreshold of 7m/second.

The performance of a micro-turbine with a1.1m diameter, assuming an above average windspeed of 6m/second, should deliver ~1.6kWh/day.Mackay (2008) describes an Ampair 600W micro-turbine positioned on a roof in a small town in themidlands of the UK.The average power generatedis 0.037kWh/day.

Larger machines can serve a group of housesand an excellent case study is the HockertonHousing Project in Nottinghamshire. It hasinstalled two 5kW free-standing turbines as wellas roof-mounted PVs over its four earth-sheltered homes. From June to September theiroutput per month is mostly under 200kWh.What stands out from this record is that PVs havean important part to play in the energy mix atthe domestic level, especially in combinationwith small-scale wind (6kW and above).

The triple helix vertical axis turbine (Figure 7.6) is appearing in increasing numbers ofurban situations, such as the waterfront of AlbertDock, Liverpool. The machines produced byquietrevolution are rated at 6kW, producing anaverage of 10,000kWh/year assuming averagewind speeds. Machines are 14m high and 3m indiameter, but need only be 8m high when



mounted on the roofs of high buildings such asthe Fairview apartments in Croydon (Figure 7.7).

The wind energy company Altechnica haspatented a number of building integrated turbinesthat are deigned to accelerate wind velocity.Collectively they are known as Aeolian Planar orWing Concentrators. They are designed to exploitthe cubic relationship between wind speed andpower output.This would mean that an increaseof 25 per cent in wind speed would double thepower output. These could also be described as‘building augmented wind energy systems’. Thedevelopment of this technology means that:

• wind turbine size for a given output can bereduced;

• annual output of a wind turbine can beincreased substantially;

• wind turbine capacity factor can beincreased substantially;

• wind turbines will ‘cut-in’ at a lower windspeed;

• simpler fixed yaw wind turbines becomemore feasible;

• sites with lower wind speed characteristicsbecome more viable;

• urban sites become more viable;

Stornoway

Summer Winter

KinlossKirkwall

Stornoway

KirkwallKinloss

LeucharsDunstaffnage

Paisley

BedfordSt Mawgan

0 1 2 3 4

Windspeed (m/s)

5 6 7 8

LeucharsPaisley

St Mawgan

100 km

9

Summer Winter Bedford

Dunstaffnage

Source: Mackay (2008, p264)

Figure 7.5 Average summer and winter wind speeds in the UK over the period 1971–2000 at a height of 10m

Source: Courtesy of quietrevolution Ltd

Figure 7.6 Triple helix wind generator byquietrevolution (qr5)



• wind turbines can be productive for agreater proportion of a year;

• substantial CO2 emissions are abated fromwhat is effectively a ‘new’ energy source.

The ‘Aeolian roof ’ combines a suitably profiledroof with a shaped fairing or plane designed toenhance wind speed along the apex of thebuilding. The fairing or wing also protects therotors.The system can accommodate cross-flowor axial turbines (Figure 7.8) and can generatepower even at relatively low wind speeds andwhen there is turbulence. Structurally this is arobust system that minimizes roof loading. Theprototype currently under test also indicates thatvibrations are not transmitted to the structure.

The Building-Augmented variants of thepatented Aeolian Wing™ Wind EnergyConcentrator Systems family include severaloptions including Aeolian Roof™ systems thatare appropriate for a variety of roof profilesincluding curved,vaulted, shell and membrane roofsas well as dual-pitched,mono-pitched and flat roofs.The system is not only suitable for new buildingsbut also for retrofit application (Figure 7.9).

Figure 7.7 Quietrevolution helical turbines, FairviewHomes, London Road, Croydon

Source: Courtesy of Derek Taylor, Altechnica

Figure 7.8 Roof ridge accommodating cross-flow or axial turbines

© Altechnica

Cross-flow H-RotRs™

Axial-flow wind turbines

System works with any currentaxial-flow & cross-flow wind turbines.

Altechnica Aeolian Roof Wing1M



Source: Courtesy of Altechnica

Figure 7.9 Aeolian system for terrace housing

Altechnica Patented Aeolian Roof on Curved Eaves Building

(c) Altechnica

Axial-Flow Wind Turbines (cross flow turbines can also be used)

Source: Courtesy of Altechnica

Figure 7.10 The Aeolian Tower

Vertical AxisCross-Flowwind turbinesshown

Aeolian SolAirfoilPV Clad ‘Wings’

© Altechnica

Altechnica Aeolian Tower™

Altechnica’s Patented Aeolian Tower Wind Energy Systems™with Aeolian Planar Concentrators™ on each corner.



Altechnica has also designed the system to beadapted to high rise buildings (Figure 7.10).

Aeolian Tower™ systems are designed to beincorporated into the sides and/or corners ofbuildings – particularly tall structures. Heightincreases the productivity of wind technologyand side or corner installations reduce thevisibility of wind energy exploitation on tallbuildings. Again there is the potential for new-build and retrofit.

Heat pumpsHeat pumps may seem an unlikely candidate forinclusion in the major renewables for the future.In fact their popularity in mainland Europesuggests it is a technology that will have animportant role to play in the race for zero carbonenergy.

Heat pumps are an extension of refrigerationtechnology. Their principle is that they extractresidual heat from the ground, air or water,which can then be used to supplement spaceheating or provide domestic hot water. Groundsource heat pumps (GSHP) exploit the fact thatthe Earth at a depth of 6m maintains a constanttemperature of 10–12°C. At 3m it fluctuatesbetween 8° and 15°C. In reverse mode GSHPscan also provide cooling. The technology existsto allow heating and cooling to occursimultaneously in different parts of a building.There is a body of opinion that considers thatheat pumps will lead the field in low energytechnology for buildings. It is relatively low cost,and economical to run.

If PVs with battery backup provide thepower for pumps and compressors, then it is azero energy system. The co-efficient ofperformance (COP) is, at best, 1:4. This meansthat 4kW of heat are obtained using 1kW ofelectricity. If the ground loop is located in anaquifer, an even higher COP can be obtaineddue to the rapid recovery rate of the watertemperature. Heat pumps can be used tosupplement the heat gained from ventilationsystems with heat recovery.

In the sphere of social housing there is agrowing trend to retrofit GSHPs to replace oil-fired central heating.One system that is extensivelyused is the HeatGen™ package.The following istaken from the specification in its brochure:

HeatGen™ is a ground source heat pumppackage specifically matched to UK housing,capable of providing all the heating and hotwater needed without using supplementarydirect electric heating.

Typically each house is fitted with a singleborehole within the curtilage of the property,coupled to a Dimplex ground source heat pumplocated either within the dwelling or housed inan external enclosure in the garden.EarthEnergy undertakes all the works necessaryto ‘replace the boiler’ so that the heatingengineer has a similar scope of works to that ofa traditional system.

This ‘one borehole per house’ solutionprovides a bespoke designed ground loopmatched to the heat loss of the house providing:

• onsite renewable energy;• low running costs;• low CO2 footprint;• unobtrusive – not visible externally;• no flames or combustible gases;• no emissions or noise nuisance;• no fuel handling/storage requirements;• no fire/explosion hazard;• doesn’t require planning permission;• only requires electrical infrastructure;• available 24 hrs a day 7 days a week;• long lifetime;• no reduction in performance over time.

HeatGen™ is an affordable way to addressfuel poverty in existing housing stock withno mains gas available; reducing fuel bills,improving the quality of life of tenants andsignificantly reducing carbon emissions.

New housing developments can readilyincorporate HeatGen™ to meet planning



obligations for onsite renewable energy andachieve compliance with Building Regulationsand the Code for Sustainable Homes.

Heat pump technology is being scaled-up to servelarge buildings. For example, one of the largestGSHP systems in the UK, at 4MW, is destined toprovide all the heat and cooling for the ChurchillHospital, part of the Oxford Radcliffe HospitalsNHS Trust.The design load is 2.5MW with theremainder as essential reserve capacity.

Air source heat pumps (ASHP) are verypopular in mainland Europe, especially Sweden,despite its extreme winter temperatures.They aremuch cheaper to install than GSHPs and have aCOP of ~3.5:1. Their drawback is that theyfreeze up when the outside temperature falls to4°C in conditions of high humidity. Theseconditions are common in the UK but not sooften in Sweden. Therefore, in the UK, theenergy balance has to take into account a heatingelement to keep it operational in frost conditions.

Air source technology is proving popular forlarge buildings and, whilst there are unlikely tobe radical improvements in its technology,economies of scale will bring down costs for arobust and 24-hour reliable source of low gradeheat or cooling. As thin film PV technologycrosses the grid parity threshold, their use inconjunction with heat pumps will provide agenuinely zero carbon, low maintenance, longlife source of heat and cooling. (A more detaileddescription of heat pump technology is given inSmith, 2007, ch. 4 ‘Geothermal Energy’.)

Micro-fuel cellsMicro-fuel cells are now beginning to appearamong the domestic scale technologies for thefuture. Chapter 15 offers a description of theCeres 1kW fuel cell, which would seem to havemuch to offer in the domestic buildings sector.1

For some time the technology of the futureon the domestic scale was Stirling combined heatand power.This is an external combustion enginein which heat is applied to one end of a cylinderwhilst the opposite end is cooled. The piston isset in motion by the difference in pressure at the

cylinder’s extremities. In the first machines forthe domestic market, the vertical action of thepistons was converted to rotary action connectedto a generator. Next generation systemsemployed a free-piston Stirling engine thatproduced electricity by the interaction ofmagnetic fields in the walls of the sealed cylinderand in the piston. The heat generated was usedfor domestic hot water, supplemented by a gasburner (Smith, 2007, ch. 9). Up to the present ithas been beset by engineering problemsconcerning the extremely fine tolerances neededin the manufacture of the piston and cylinder.

With the support of a major utility likeBritish Gas, the Ceres Power fuel cell is likely tooffer serious competition to the Stirling optionin the domestic combined heat and powermarket. It is compact, it has no moving parts andit generates heat rather than imports it.

Small-scale and micro-hydrogenerationMicro-hydro generation has not featured muchin the pantheon of renewables. However, aninitiative in New Mills, Derbyshire, is set tochange perceptions of this technology. Theinstallation at New Mills consists of anadaptation of the Archimedes Screw that wasinitially designed to raise water. Used in reverse,its rotary action drives an electricity generator.Built in Germany, the Screw is the centre pieceof the Torrs Hydro Scheme (Figure 7.11). It is11m long, 2.6m wide and weighs 11.3 tonnes. Itis used to harness power from the River Goyt tobe delivered to the nearby Co-operativesupermarket as well as to local homes. Theproject was backed by the Manchester-basedCo-operative Group and a grant from the Co-operative Fund helped establish this community-owned power enterprise. It began operation in2008 and now generates ~240,000kWh per year,enough to power 70 homes.

Plans are well advanced to install a similarscheme in Settle, Lancashire. Other locations arebeing considered, including Sheffield. The Co-operative Group is set to extend support to otherprojects across the country.



BiofuelBiofuels have not been included in the list of frontrunners in renewables. This is because biofuelresources will be monopolized by the demandfrom vehicles and in contributing to the fuel mixfor thermal power stations. Pellets will have a roleto play in the domestic sector, but spaceconstraints suggest this will be only marginal.Thetechnologies covered are the ones that have thepotential to play a central role in the drive towardszero carbon buildings. However, it has to be saidthat the goal of absolute zero carbon buildings per se is unattainable.2 Onsite renewable energywill never be sufficient to counter the carbon

released in the construction process and thebuilding in use. However, offsite renewable energyis another matter.

Notes1 www.cerespower.com2 The net zero carbon target for homes and all

appliances set for 2016 will only be achievablewith power from renewable sources.Government regulations state that ‘Calculations(re zero carbon) can include onsite renewablesand offsite where renewable energy is supplied toa dwelling via a private wire arrangement.’(‘Definition of Zero Carbon Homes and Non-domestic Buildings’, DCLG, Dec 2008, p10.)

Figure 7.11 Archimedes Screw in the River Goyt at New Mills, Derbyshire


The starting point of this chapter echoes theunderpinning idea of Chapter 5:

Given the long lifetime and cost of the builtenvironment, it is important that we plan for,and create, communities that are robust in theface of climate change. New developmentsmust be designed to cope with future ratherthan historic climates. [We] will need to copewith changing climate over decades evencenturies.

(Shaw et al, 2007).

In 1992 the town of Gussing in Austria was adeclining place close to the Iron Curtain.By 2001it was energy self-sufficient due to the productionof biodiesel from local rapeseed and used cookingoil, together with solar heat and electricity. Inaddition, it installed a biomass-steam gasificationplant that sells surplus electricity to the grid. Notonly has this produced significantly higher livingstandards, new industries have created 1000 newjobs. As a result, the town has cut its CO2

emissions by 90 per cent.This is an example of a growing number of

towns that are seizing the opportunity to becomenear-carbon-neutral, motivated as much by theprice of fossil energy as the need to cut carbonemissions. In the UK they are the ‘transitiontowns’.However, the focus of this chapter is on theUK’s programme of ten eco-towns.

Eco-town case studiesVauban, Freiburg im Breisgau

Much of the inspiration behind the UK’s eco-town concept comes from Freiburg insouthwest Germany and, in particular, the sectorof Vauban.

The beginning of the ‘solarization’ ofFreiburg can be traced to 1975 when thecommunity successfully lobbied against theconstruction of a nuclear power plant in fairlyclose proximity to the city at Wyhl.The risk of aconsequent energy shortfall caused the citizensto take advantage of Freiburg’s location as thesunniest region of Germany. A stimulus to theevolution of Freiburg as the solar capital ofGermany was the foundation of the FraunhoferInstitute for Solar Energy Research in 1981.Thiswas perhaps the driving force behind the solarrevolution in Freiburg and is now Europe’slargest solar energy research institute.

The French occupied Freiburg in 1945 andmaintained a military presence there until 1991,when they finally withdrew from their Vaubanbase. The city then created the Forum VaubanAssociation in 1994 to involve publicparticipation in the development of the formerFrench army base with the aim of creating theideal eco-city of the future. In many ways itconstitutes a social as well as an architectural and

8

Eco-towns: Opportunity or Oxymoron?


urban design revolution. In Vauban, green livingis compulsory. For example:

• All buildings had to be constructed toachieve an energy consumption of 65kWh/m2/year six years before this became theoverall German standard in 2002.

• The energy standard for the city is set to bereduced to 40kWh/m2/y (the nationalstandard is now 75kWh/m2/y). Thepreferred energy benchmark for houses is thePassivHaus standard of 15kWh/m2/year.Triple glazing is mandatory with a minimumU-value of 1.2 W/m2K.

• Ecological building materials such as walls ofcompressed natural materials are usedextensively.

• Solar energy is maximized.The flagship solardevelopment is the mixture of ‘Plus-energy’housing and commercial use (Chapter 4).The architect was Rolf Disch.

• Priority has been given to pedestrians andcyclists as well as public transport. A tramsystem and buses have made it convenient tobe largely car free.

• There are powerful disincentives to car usewith strict limits on car ownership in the‘passive’ zone. Owning a car incurs a fee of£12,000 for parking plus a monthlymanagement fee.

• Although the development is high density,there is room for allotments to enableresidents to cultivate fruit and vegetables.

The city of Freiburg is served by a districtheating scheme that includes contributions froma wood fired co-generation plant, anaerobicdigestion of bio-waste, a rape co-generationplant and a wood-chip CHP plant.

For some the image of Vauban is that it is aghetto for green extremists. A resident hasadmitted that ‘some people are very anti-car, andthere have been conflicts in some streets.There isalso a stigma … in living in Freiburg’s mostmilitant green quarter’ (Observer, 2008a).

However, the outstanding positive feature ofFreiburg is the exploitation of solar energy,mainly through PVs. The City’s ‘SolarKonzept2000’ together with the Lander (county)provides a grant of up to 40 per cent to a limit

of DM8000 equivalent per household for theinstallation of solar power and heating. Inaddition there is a generous feed-in tariff offeredby the federal government under the RenewableEnergy Law.The result is that the city generates4.3MW of electricity together with 10,000m2 ofsolar collectors. It is no surprise that Freiburg ishome to a leading PV manufacturing company,SolarFabrik, and its spin-off distributioncompany Solarstrom AG.

The result is a city that is an outstandingexample of public participation and a worldshowcase for solar power as shown by the PlusEnergy project (Plusenergiehaus) (see Figures4.8 and 4.9). Designed by architect Rolf Disch,the 60 homes in the Sonnenschiff are designedto produce a surplus of energy, currently earningthe community €6000 per year thanks to thesubsidy.

Hammarby Sjostad, Stockholm

A more recent eco-development admired by theUK government is Hammarby Sjostad,Stockholm.The brief was to design a developmentthat combined the traditional inner city characterof Stockholm with modern architecture insympathy with the natural environment. Itincludes 9000 apartments housing 20,000 people.There were guidelines that emphasized the needto integrate key buildings, public spaces andpedestrian routes. In fact the list of guidelines wasmost comprehensive, which might have beeninhibiting; instead, the result was a city sector thatwas visually inspired.

Eco-towns for the UKThe UK specification for its eco-towns has morein common with Vauban than Hammarby. It is asmuch about dictating lifestyle as prescribingdesign and construction specifications. Eco-towns represent a response to three challenges:

• climate change;• the need to develop more sustainable living;• the requirement to increase the supply of

housing.



The government,s conditions

The government’s definition of an eco-town isthat, ‘over a year, the net carbon dioxideemissions from all energy use within buildingson the development are zero or below. Planningapplications should demonstrate how this will beachieved.’ All buildings will be included:commercial, public sector as well as housing.

The eco-towns are intended to bedemonstrations of:

• a zero-carbon and sustainable approach toliving by means of new design at the wholetown scale;

• the role of well-designed new settlements asan element in increasing the supply ofhousing alongside growth in existing townsand cities;

• exploiting the opportunities to design anddeliver affordable housing. Eco-towns willinclude 30–50 per cent of affordable housingand a mix of tenures and family sizes.

Summary of requirements

The government’s objectives for planning are setout in Planning Policy Statement 1 (PPS 1) andinclude:

• to promote sustainable development by:• ensuring that eco-towns achieve

sustainability standards significantlyabove equivalent levels of developmentin existing towns and cities by settingout a range of challenging andstretching minimum standards for theirdevelopment, and in particular by:providing a good quantity of greenspace of the highest quality in closeproximity to the natural environment;offering opportunities for space within andaround the dwellings; promoting healthyand sustainable environments through‘Active Design’ [www.sportengland.org/planning_active_design] principlesand healthy living choices; enablingopportunities for infrastructure that

make best use of technologies in energygeneration and conservation in ways thatare not always practical or economic inother developments; delivering a locallyappropriate mix of housing type andtenure to meet the needs of all incomegroups and household size; and takingadvantage of significant economies ofscale and increases in land value todeliver new technology andinfrastructure such as for transport,energy and community facilities.

• to reduce the carbon footprint ofdevelopment by:• ensuring that households and individuals

in eco-towns are able to reduce theircarbon footprint to a low level andachieve a more sustainable way of living.

(DCLG, 2009)

The conditions are that an eco-town should be:

• a new development;• of sufficient size to support the necessary

services and establish their own identity;• of sufficient critical mass to deliver much

higher standards of sustainability;• able to make provision for between 5000

and 20,000 homes;• able to provide green space to a high

standard through their link with the naturalenvironment;

• provide space within and around buildingsespecially for children;

• able to provide healthy and sustainableenvironments through ‘Active Design’principles and healthy living choices;

• able to provide easy access to workplacesand be a viable local economy;

• provide communities resilient to climatechange;

• be in close proximity to existing or plannedemployment and have links to a major townor city.

Eco-towns should deliver a high quality localenvironment and meet the standards on water,flooding, green infrastructure and biodiversity setout in this PPS, taking into account a changing

Eco-towns: Opportunity or Oxymoron? 73


climate for these, as well as incorporating widerbest practice on tackling overheating andimpacts of a changing climate for the natural andbuilt environment (DCLG, 2009).

The most contentious condition relates toonsite renewable energy:

[Buildings should] achieve through acombination of energy efficiency, onsite low andzero carbon energy generation and any heatsupplied from low and zero carbon heatsystems directly connected to the development,carbon reduction (from space heating, hot waterand fixed lighting) of at least 70% relative tocurrent Building Regulations Part L 2006.

(DCLG, 2009, Part 2)

Large parts of the towns will be car free. Car-sharing will replace car ownership. One potentialinitiative is that staff in the eco-towns will offerresidents and businesses personalized travelplanning to enable them to adapt to the largelycar-free environment. By capturing rainwaterand reusing treated grey water for toilets, thetowns should be ‘water-neutral’. In other words,the development will make no more demandsfor water than was the case on the undevelopedsite. To summarize: as a minimum all houses must achieve at least level 4 of the Code forSustainable Homes.

There is even the suggestion that retailersshould provide plenty of products with low meatand dairy content. This is following reportsshowing that a significant reduction in theconsumption of meat could cut the ecologicalfootprint due to food by 60 per cent. All this isto achieve the target of ‘one planet living’. Atpresent the British lifestyle, if it were to beuniversal, would consume the resources of threeplanets (the figure for the US is 4).

The stringent conditions laid down for theeco-towns has already had consequences. Nineof the ten sites finally selected for developmentat the first stage have so far not met all theconditions laid down in the invitation for bids.The successful one is Rackheath, northeast ofNorwich, which obtained a Grade A in theassessment. However, the government is notbeing deflected from its eco-ambitions, and itplans for construction to begin in 2010.

Eco-towns: a critiqueThere are several concerns about the eco-townsproject and one is that in all probabilitydevelopers will resort to lightweight timberframe construction to meet the zero carbonstandard required within the cost contraints.Thiscould conflict with the requirement to use bestpractice to tackle overheating and the impacts ofa changing climate, as discussed in Chapter 4.

Even more serious is the fate of the flagshipHammarby Sjostad project and its wide use oflightweight construction. A headline in thejournal Building Design sounded the alarm:problems with moisture penetration between thetimber frames and their plasterboard cladding iscausing the town to face ‘a ticking time bomb’according to Professor Per Ingvar Sandberg ofthe Technical Research Institute of Sweden(Hurst, 2007). His report highlights afundamental fault that can occur in this type ofconstruction. It was also pointed out that it isuncertain that the mandatory level of airtightness can be achieved in this system simplythrough reliance on an air-tight membrane(Sandberg, 2007b).

This has significance for the UK eco-townprogramme. One such town is likely to beBordon Whitehill in East Hampshire. The chiefexecutive of the District Council Will Godfrey ison record as saying: ‘Homes could be built fromprefabricated wooden panels sourced from localmanaged woodlands’ (Observer, 2008b).

In Chapter 4 it was argued that lightweightframe and panel structures lacking thermal masswould be unsuitable for the temperatures we canexpect if climate change continues on its presenttrajectory. Engineers Atelier Ten also argued thatsuch structures might only last 25 years, not thecenturies that the TCPA recommends.

Concern has been voiced that thegovernment is being advised by the Commissionfor Architecture and the Built Environment(CABE) and an environmentally consciousdevelopment company Bioregional that residentsshould be monitored to ensure that their carbonfootprint is at least three times less than theBritish average.This could mean monitoring thenumber of car journeys made and the type ofwaste generated by homes and businesses. They



are also recommending that thermographicimaging should be employed to determine whichhomes are wasting energy. They are also callingfor all homes to be powered by renewables, withgas serving only as a backup fuel.

In announcing the eco-towns initiative,housing minister Caroline Flint summed up theintention: ‘We will revolutionise the way peoplelive.’ It is becoming clear what she meant.

The government claims that the programme ofeco-towns is entirely different from the new townsprogramme culminating in Milton Keynes. It isn’t.Yet the underlying utopian ideals, which haveunderpinned all ‘clean sweep’ urban endeavourssince the Garden City prototype of Letchworth,persist. Eco-towns are its latest manifestation.

This latest version is more extreme than all itspredecessors. The arch-critic of the idea isprobably Simon Jenkins.Writing in the Guardianhe points out that, according to the EmptyHomes Agency, ‘building new houses emits 4.5 times more carbon than rehabilitating old ones’.He goes on: ‘An eco-town has to build houses,roads, sewers, shops and all services from scratch.It is absurd to pretend that this is more carbon-efficient than expanding and “greening” existingsettlements.’ He concludes: ‘The way to preservethe green of the countryside and maximise thecarbon-efficiency of human habitation is to maketoday’s cities work better.They are full of usableland… Cities are the new green’ (Jenkins, 2008).

This chimes with the objections of ProfessorAnne Power, one of the key members of Lord

Rogers’ Urban Task Force, and John Houghton:‘The only sustainable solution to the housing crisislies in “recycling”cities,not building on greenbelt.’Their article concludes: ‘Cities, large, difficult andambitious stretch human capacity to its limit, yetwithin their small, crowded spaces we find myriadsigns of regrowth. In this lies our hope for thefuture’ (Power and Houghton, 2007).

Writing in the Guardian (25 June 2008)architectural critic Jonathan Glancey suggests‘These ecotowns are a far from being benignproject. The scheme is more of a land grab infavour of developers and retailers.’ He concludes:‘Ecotowns reflect an utter failure of imagination.There is no commitment to design, no concernfor urbanistics.’

Architect Lord Rogers is unequivocal: eco-towns are ‘one of the biggest mistakes thegovernment can make’ and one that is due to bemagnified in scale in the Thames Gateway project.Lord Rogers recently said in the House of Lords:‘There is something wrong when the ThamesGateway – Europe’s biggest regeneration project –is still peppering the banks of the beautiful riverThames with shoddy, Toytown houses and DanDare glass towers. I fear that we are building theslums of tomorrow’ (Guardian, 28 December2008, p13). Reported in the same article, propertydeveloper Sir Stuart Lipton added his voice ofcriticism speaking to The Thames GatewayForum:‘Will this be one of the biggest projects inUK history that has been dumbed-down byNoddy architecture?’ (Figure 8.1).


Figure 8.1 Thames Gateway main housing projects

GreaterLondon

ThamesGateway

1. Basildon 10,7002. Thurrock 9,5003. Barking & Dagenham 20,0004. Lewisham 10,0005. Greenwich 19,0006. Dartford 15,5007. Gravesham 9,2008. Medway 16,000

87

645

3 2

1


The verdictThe aims behind the eco-towns may be laudablebut they are misplaced. The government’srationale is that they will influence towns andcities throughout the country; a classic trickle-down effect.This doesn’t work in finance, and itis extremely unlikely to work in the builtenvironment. The specification that isappropriate for eco-towns should also be goodfor all towns and cities. It is better to directfunding towards upgrading conurbations towardsthe eco-town standard than have a few shiningexamples that may become another case of thebest being the enemy of the good.At worst theymay fulfil the threat voiced by the LocalGovernment Association: ‘they will be the eco-slums of the future if they are built withoutregard to where residents can get jobs ortraining’ (Observer, 13 July 2008).

This view has also been expressed by one ofthe original architects of Milton Keynes,MichaelEdwards: ‘They’ve pitched it all far too small. It’sextremely difficult to make towns of 20,000people the slightest bit self-sufficient’ (Guardian,28 December 2008).

In a time of economic recession developerswill tend to favour prestigious developments on

greenfield sites with easy access over urbanbrownfield sites possibly with remediationproblems.The result could be that existing townsand cities may be starved of limited developmentresources.The evidence is manifest at the time ofwriting in the forest of abandoned cranes.

In addition, to suggest that any town can begenuinely zero carbon is to make considerabledemands on energy efficiency and presumes anenergy intensity of onsite renewable energy thatis not yet available. Eco-towns could be anopportunity to demonstrate how the best ofdesign can satisfy the highest ecological goals.Instead all indications point to a contradiction interms.

Adaptive action for towns and citiesAcross the population there is increasing pressure on individuals to make lifestyle changes.Figure 8.2 shows the extent to which theaverage individual contributed to the globalwarming problem in 2005; space heating and cartravel clearly make the biggest contribution,accounting between them for almost 60 per centof the total.


Source: Defra, 2006

Figure 8.2 The average individual’s contribution to annual CO2 emissions

30

25

15

Per

cent

age

10

Spaceheating

Cartravel

Airtravel

Waterheating

Appliances Lighting Cooking Othertravel

5

0

20

Average per capital annual emissions, 2005 = 4.25 tonnes of CO2


In response to this situation, at the grass rootslevel there is a parallel initiative to the eco-townsprogramme called the Transition Townsmovement.The initiating principles behind thisare a lack of confidence that governments willtake appropriate action against climate changeand the imminence of peak oil. Consequentlycommunities are coming together to take action.The inspiration came from Rob Hoskins, alecturer in sustainable living, in 2003. The firstTransition Town was Totnes in Devon. Itpresented inhabitants with a 12 step guide tosustainable living. Step 1 was to establish asteering group to take the project forward.Steps 2–11 are about raising awareness, initiatingworking groups to discuss topics like food andfuel and the techniques for liaising with localgovernment. Step 12 is the final challenge tocreate an energy action plan. Totnes has evenestablished its own currency, accepted only bylocal businesses.

Totnes was followed by Lewes in East Sussexwhere the project has been so successful that ithas formed the Ouse Valley Energy ServiceCompany. Government grants have helped it tolaunch subsidized renewable energy technologiesacross the area. There are now 100 TransitionTowns, the latest being Fujino in Japan. Such amovement is probably more in tune with thebottom-up spirit of the times than the idea ofeco-towns, which will represent an impliedrebuke against all lesser eco-aspirants. However,for the latter, help is at hand.

The TCPA guide for sustainablecommunities referred to at the start of thechapter drew attention to the Adaptation Strategiesfor Climate Change in the Urban Environment(ASCCUE) project, which has sought toquantify the potential of green space tomoderate the impacts of climate change in theurban context. The project has produced aconurbation scale risk and adaptation assessmentmethodology to support policy in moderatingclimate change impacts.As a policy tool it beginsby broadly analysing the impacts at the largeurban scale to pave the way for neighbourhoodscale analysis (Gwilliam et al, 2006).

At the conurbation scale the ASCCUEreport makes several recommendations:

• High quality greenspace, made up of alinked network of well-irrigated open spacesthat can be used by a range of people (a ‘green grid’), which has additionalecological, recreational and flood storagebenefits. Green infrastructure withinurbanism includes green roofs and walls aswell as the obvious features. In connectionwith plant health, there has to be access towater. Also, climate change means a longergrowing season and changing species.

• Evaporative cooling through fountains,urban pools and lakes, rivers and canals.

• Shading will become increasinglyimportant, achieved with trees, (deciduous)greater overhanging of eaves, narrow streets(canyon ventilation) and canopies.

• Passive ventilation through intelligentbuilding form and orientation.

Managing temperature at theneighbourhood scaleThe key measures that can be taken at a locallevel to manage changes in temperature include:

• Maximizing evaporative cooling fromborder planting, street trees, green roofs andelevations, for example. The ASCCUEproject indicates that a 10 per cent reductionin urban greenery results in increasedmaximum surface temperatures inManchester by the 2080s under the highemissions scenario.

• Evaporative cooling from ponds, roadsideswales, flood alleviation lakes, fountains,rivers and canals.

• The orientation of buildings and arrangementof windows to minimize solar gain.

• Facade materials that are less heat absorbent.• Light coloured finishes to pavements, roads

and parking areas to minimize heatabsorption.



• Porous pavements to facilitate rainwaterinfiltration.

• As an alternative to green roofs, reflectivefinishes to minimize thermal gain and helpreduce internal temperatures.

Heat island effect

Increasing attention is being paid to the waybuilt environments can amplify ambienttemperature. In central London the ‘heat islandeffect’ can add 6°C to the temperature prevailingin open countryside (Figure 8.3).

According to the Met Office the heat islandis the result of:

• the release (and reflection) of heat fromindustrial and domestic buildings;

• the absorption by concrete, brick andtarmac of heat during the day, and its releaseinto the lower atmosphere at night;

• the reflection of solar radiation by glassbuildings and windows – the centralbusiness districts of some urban areas cantherefore have quite high albedo rates(proportion of light reflected);

• the emissions of hygroscopic pollutants fromcars and heavy industry act as condensationnuclei, leading to the formation of cloud andsmog that can trap radiation – in some casesa pollution dome can also build up;

• recent research on London’s heat island hasshown that the pollution domes can alsofilter incoming solar radiation, therebyreducing the build-up of heat during theday; at night the dome may trap some of theheat from the day, so these domes may bereducing the sharp differences betweenurban and rural areas;

• the relative absence of water from urbanareas means that less energy is used forevapotranspiration and more is available toheat the lower atmosphere;


Figure 8.3 Six degree heat island effect in London

10

11

9

9

8

8

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CroydonN

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EppingForest

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O p e n C o u n t r y

R. Thames

R. Thames

Urban heat islands

London 'heat island'Mid May: light winds, clear skies


• the absence of strong winds to both dispersethe heat and bring in cooler air from ruraland suburban areas – urban heat islands areoften most clearly defined on calm summerevenings, often under blocking anti-cyclones (Figure 8.4).

Even a small city like Chester can experience asharp heat island effect that falls off rapidly at thecity boundary (Figure 8.5).

Responding to the call for innovative use ofspace within and around buildings,Robert Shaw ofthe TCPA counters with the warning that ‘ill-thought through promotion of high densitydevelopment in order to save land can do much toexacerbate heat island problems. Space needs to beleft or created for large canopy trees combined withgreen spaces and green roofs that can help to keepsummer temperatures in cities cooler and minimizethe risk of urban flooding’ (TCPA, 2007, p2).

A diagram from the TCPA report (Figure 8.6)encapsulates many of the strategies that can

alleviate problems arising from high temperatures(TCPA, 2007, p19). This chapter ends with anemphasis on temperature because this is an impactthat will bear on inhabitants on an internationalscale as demonstrated in 2003. Floods and evenstorms can be localized events but hightemperatures are widespread and inescapable.

Masdar City Abu Dhabi

It seems appropriate to end this chapter with aproject that promises to set the standard for zero-carbon towns and cities of the future, regardlessof climate zone. It is the energy crisis rather thanglobal warming that has inspired the mostambitious plans for a city ‘where carbonemissions are zero’. Masdar City (Figure 8.7) isthe centrepiece of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi’splans to be a leader in renewable energy as ahedge against the time when oil and gas reservesexpire. In many of its forms it will echo the


Figure 8.4 Inversion producing a pollution dome

Figure 8.5 Extreme heat island effect, Chester, UK

Pollution dome

Cold Cold

Inversion

SSW NNE

Tem

per

atur

e (d

eg C

)

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Dodleston

10 8 17 20 22 25 20 30Metres above sea level

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Westminster Park Centre Kingsway Picton


traditional Arab city with narrow streets andextensive shaded walks (Figure 8.8). The city will be powered by photovoltaics, solar thermal,wind power and bio-energy. The city plan is

orientated to the northeast to minimize theamount of direct sunlight falling onto buildings’elevations and windows. It will house about50,000 permanent residents plus a considerable


Source: Courtesy TCPA

Figure 8.6 Managing high temperatures on an urban scale

Active or mechanical cooling

Building envelope insulation Thermal storage or thermal mass

Cool pavement materials

Cool or reflective buildingmaterials on roofs or façades

Increasing ventilation through orientation and urban morphology

Solar control – includes shading,orientation and building morphology

Increasing evaporative cooling Green infrastructure

Ground water cooling usingaquifers or surface water cooling

Key

Conurbation/catchment scale

Neighbourhood scale

Menu of strategies for managinghigh temperatures

The diagram summarizes the range of actionsand techniques available to increase adaptivecapacity. Building scale

Use of open water and water features



Source: Masdar Masterplan Development, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2007. Client: Masdar-Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company Mubadala Development Company. Business

Plan: Ernst and Young. Architect: Urban Design: Foster + Partners. Renewable Energy: E.T.A. Climate Engineering: Transsolar. Sustainability-Infrastructure: WSP

Energy. HVAC Engineer: WSP. Transportation: Systematica. Quantity Surveyor: Cyril Sweet Limited. Landscape consultant: Gustfason Porter.

Figure 8.7 Masdar City, Abu Dhabi

Source: Masdar Masterplan Development, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2007. Client: Masdar-Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company Mubadala Development Company. Business

Plan: Ernst and Young. Architect: Urban Design: Foster + Partners. Renewable Energy: E.T.A. Climate Engineering: Transsolar. Sustainability-Infrastructure: WSP

Energy. HVAC Engineer: WSP. Transportation: Systematica. Quantity Surveyor: Cyril Sweet Limited. Landscape consultant: Gustfason Porter.

Figure 8.8 Street in Masdar City


transient population of students, academics andtechnologists.The city will be car free, cars beingreplaced by a personal rapid transit (PRT)system. Each car carries six people and ispowered by batteries charged by solar power.These vehicles would run beneath the city.Thecars can be programmed by passengers to targetany one of approximately 1500 stations.

There is a good chance that this will be agenuinely zero carbon city and there is a touch ofirony in the fact that it has been designed by UKarchitect Norman Foster and its carbon profilecalculated by Bioregional. Even though Masdar issited in a very different climate to the UK(although potentially not so different by 2050)there are numerous features that are relevant toEurope. Lord Foster is designing eco-cities in theMiddle East and China, but eco-towns in the UKwill be largely at the mercy of developers. Itseems we have graduated from being a nation ofshopkeepers to one of spec builders.

Appendix

Extract from Planning Policy Statement: eco-towns under consideration

Sustainability appraisal, habitats regulationsassessment and impact assessment

Q5 Do you have any comments on theaccompanying Sustainability Appraisal/

Habitats Regulations Assessment or theImpact Assessment?

Q6 Do you have any comments on the issuesidentified in the Sustainability Appraisal/Habitats Regulations Assessment of thelocations for eco-towns?

Q6.1 Penbury (Stoughton)

Q6.2 Middle Quniton

Q6.3 Whitehill-Bordon

Q6.4 Weston Otmoor and Cherwell

Q6.5 Ford

Q6.6 St Austell (China ClayCommunity)

Q6.7 Rossington

Q6.8 Marston Vale

Q6.9 North East Elsenham

Q6.10 Rushcliffe (Nottinghamshire)

Q6.11 Greater Norwich

Q6.12 Leeds City Region

Although SA of the locations for Manby,Curborough and Hanley Grange have beenundertaken, these locations are not being takenforward as a result of promoters withdrawingschemes from the programme.

Q6.13 Curborough

Q6.14 Manby

Q6.15 Hanley Grange and Cambridgeshire



Britain has a unique mass housing inheritance,thanks to its role in initiating the industrialrevolution. Many were built in haste to housethe labour force for the rapidly expandingeconomy. There were exceptions: some houseswere built by philanthropic mill owners whoassumed responsibility for the welfare of theiremployees. World famous examples includeSaltaire near Leeds and Port Sunlight nearBirkenhead. For much of the rest of the 19th-century housing stock, the official view from the1950s–1980s was to consider them primecandidates for demolition. Liverpool provides aclassic example of this attitutde.

The policy of demolition was deemed cost-effective because it was considered that gettingrid of the poorer quality housing and rebuildingwould be cheaper than upgrading. In major UKcities the demolition and replacement of olderterraced properties began in the 1930s, a processably assisted by the Luftwaffe in the 1940s.Theirony is that, of the 27 million or so existinghomes in Britain in need of extensive upgrading,a significant proportion are the ones thatreplaced these demolished properties under thepost-war rebuilding and development policies.

Statistics

Case study: England

According to the English House Condition Survey2006, there were 22 million homes in England ofwhich 70 per cent were owner-occupied and 2.6million privately rented. Pre-1919 homesaccounted for 22 per cent with 94 per cent beingprivately owned and 71 per cent owner-occupied.

Over the second half of the 20th century thegreatest change that occurred in the compositionof households was the rise of single personoccupancy. In 1971 it comprised 17 per cent of the total and by 2000 this had risen to 32 per cent. Single occupancy homes are also theleast energy efficient (Energy Saving Trust,2006). According to the Department forCommunities and Local Government (DCLG,2006) it is estimated that the number of homeswill increase by 209,000 per year until 2026 andthat 75 per cent will be single personhouseholds.This will have a direct effect on thestock profile and will exert pressure onconstruction costs.The result will be an emphasison quantity rather than quality (Figure 9.1).

Housing conditionIn England 9.2 million houses are considered tobe ‘hard to treat’ (HTT).This adds up to 43 percent of the total stock. A HTT dwelling isdefined as one that, for whatever reason, cannotaccommodate ‘staple’ or ‘cost-effective energyefficiency measures’ (Defra, 2008b). ‘Staple’measures consist of loft insulation, cavity wallinsulation and improvements to a heatingsystem, such as installing gas central heating.

In 2008, the government agreed to accept therecommendation of the Energy EfficiencyPartnership for Homes that carbon emissionsattributable to housing should be reduced by 80 per cent by 2050. The UK Green BuildingCouncil (UK-GBC) was given responsibility tolead the project. What needs to happen now isthat UK-GBC is actually allowed to lead theprocess.The Council is forthright in its view that

9

The Housing Inheritance


there is ‘broad agreement that current levels ofactivity will not deliver the savings required forambitious carbon reduction targets in the longterm’ (UK-GBC, 2008). Meanwhile theParliamentary Committee on Climate Change

has set out interim targets to 2020.These will bein the form of three five-year targets. Thegovernment was due to respond to these proposalsin the spring of 2009.The scale of the challenge isshown in the histogram in Figure 9.2.


Source: Department of Trade and Industry (2006)

Figure 9.1 Breakdown of household growth in England 1971–2026

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1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

One person

Other multi personLone person

Co-habiting couple

Married couple

25

20

15

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5

0

Source: based on BRE (2007a)

Figure 9.2 The challenge is to shift 90 per cent of the housing stock to Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)bands A and B

G F E D C B A

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cent

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5 to 8 to 11 to 15 to 21 to 26 to 31 to 36 to 41 to 46 to 51 to 56 to 61 to 66 to 71 to 76 to 81 to 86 to 91 to 96

less 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) range


Proposed solutionsDemand reduction measures which are notcurrently cost effective will have to be deliveredto achieve the 2050 target, for example, solidwall insulation. Low to zero carbon (LZC)technologies will be needed in the majority of,if not all, homes.

(UK-GBC, 2008)

The report recommends that the governmentshould:

• set a long-term carbon reduction target forthe household sector of a least 80 per cent by2050, with interim targets every five years;

• establish mandatory targets, phased overtime, to upgrade the energy performance ofexisting homes;

• provide financial incentives to support lowcarbon homes;

• review the roles and scope of existingdelivery bodies;

• explore the feasibility of developing targeted‘low carbon zones’, supporting improvementsthrough a district- or area-based applicationof a whole house approach to refurbishment.

The complexity of the housing stock and therange of occupancy conditions presents adaunting challenge. However, under Article 7 ofthe EU Energy Performance in BuildingsDirective, implementation of EnergyPerformance Certificates (EPCs) should offer amechanism for focusing on the details of theproblem.1 The mandatory requirementsmentioned in the second point above shouldinclude a statutory obligation on local authoritiesto require all home owners and landlords toobtain EPCs for their properties within a set time,say 2 years.This would provide a measure of theproblem, broken down to a neighbourhood scale.

The key question is: what are the operationalimplications of an 80 per cent CO2 reductionstrategy? Setting targets is the easy part; how toroll out an effective upgrading programme tothis standard across the nation will requiregovernment intervention at a level normallyconfined to war time.

Operation and managementThe UK-GBC recommends that ‘alongsidetargets for emissions reductions from homes …Government should develop a national strategyfor delivery, to provide clarity around roles andresponsibilities including what is expected oflocal authorities, individuals, communities andthe supply chain’ (UK-GBC, 2008, p9).

This is in tune with an Engineering andPhysical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)research programme designed by the authorearlier in the decade, which recommended that,for a scheme on a national scale, the operationalstructure will have to be consistent across thecountry (Smith, 1998). The Energy Saving Trust(EST) would be the obvious body to haveoversight of the programme, being accountable tothe government for the efficient operation of thescheme. It would compile the retrofit specificationand set the standards of performance.

The next tier of management should be thelocal authority. Councils would be responsiblefor delivering the statutory carbon savingswithin their boundary and within a definitetimescale. A member of the EST might bepositioned within the local authority for theduration of the project. Using the EPC data,councils could fine-tune the operationaccording neighbourhood characteristics. Themedian cost of energy across households withina postal district would be the basis for a contractthat would ensure an average gain of 15 per centover the combined cost of energy andrefurbishment.

The operational responsibility would bedelegated to specialist project managementcompanies that have demonstrated competencein this field. The contractors for the operationwould be approved energy service companies(ESCOs) who would assume responsibility bothfor the supply of energy and the installation ofthe energy-saving measures. It is suggested that acontract would embrace a postal district with alocal authority (LA) agreeing a contract price forboth the delivery of energy and retrofitoperation, the latter being on a fixed price basisaccording to house type. Householders would belocked-in to the ESCO for the duration of the

The Housing Inheritance 85


specific neighbourhood contract with the LA,with the latter ensuring that the ESCO did not abuse its monopoly position. The workwould be carried out on a rolling programme,neighbourhood by neighbourhood, beginningwith the poorest quality housing.As an incentiveto owner-occupiers and landlords to participate,a subsidized loan scheme would be madeavailable, but only for the duration of the specificneighbourhood programme.

Currently, the government commitment islimited to the Carbon Emissions ReductionTarget (CERT),which delivers subsidies for cavitywall and loft insulation and low energy lightingup to 2020.The UK-GBC comments: ‘However,there remains the issue about how to deliver andfund measures once the “low hanging fruit” ofcavity wall and loft insulation and low energylighting have been addressed. Currently there isonly a niche market for higher cost measures andthis is unlikely to change without major policyintervention’ (UK-GBC, 2008, p2, italics added).

The scale of the ‘major policy intervention’necessary is summarized in The Oxford UniversityEnvironmental Change Institute report HomeTruths, 2007.This suggests that achieving the targetof 80 per cent carbon savings in the housing sectorby 2050 would incur an annual cost of £11.95billion.This is broken down into:

• £3.65 billion/year for a low interest loanprogramme;

• £3.3 billion/year to tackle fuel povertythrough targeted low carbon zones;

• £2.6 billion/year to fund a coordinatingrole for local authorities for otherprogrammes and to develop heat networks;

• £2.4 billion/year to provide tax incentivesto encourage participation in upgradingprogrammes.

For the present author all this has a touch of déjà vu. The main objective of the EPSRCresearch was to test the hypothesis that a vigorousupgrading programme of the housing stockwould ultimately yield net savings to theExchequer (Sharples et al, 2001). This wasprompted by the claim by Brenda Boardman ofthe Oxford Environmental Change Unit (in a

lecture to the Institute of Housing in 2000) thatbad housing was incurring a cost to the healthservice of £1 billion per year.

At that time (c.2000) the backlog in repairsto the housing stock in England was put at £19billion (The Economist, 5 May 2001). The UK-GBC report estimates that the annual repair andmaintenance bill now amounts to £24 billion.The additional cost of upgrading the stock is putat £3.5–5 billion per year.The positive aspect ofthis is that these costs represent retrofit businessopportunities that can be especially beneficial intimes of recession in the new-build sector.

Unavoidable policy imperatives

The fuel poor

The first priority is to address the needs of thefuel poor, that is, families or individuals whoincur energy costs exceeding 10 per cent of theirincome.

In the past much of the grant support forsocial housing was targeted at installing energyefficient central heating with condensing boilers.However, it has been shown that installingenergy efficient central heating in homes that areinadequately insulated is wasteful since the fuelpoor cannot afford to use the system to fulladvantage.The truth is that if the wall insulationis not improved, central heating exacerbatesproblems of condensation by increasing thetemperature difference between the internal airand the walls.

In this sector of the community there is noalternative but for grant aid to be at 100 per centof the cost of the upgrading package. Therewould have to be a 10 per cent/year claw backagreement with homeowners who qualify forthe 100 per cent to deter them from selling thehome to exploit the added value of the upgrade.

Options for the fuel secure

For those for whom energy costs are easilymanaged, there seems to be little appetite forthermal improvements. In 1999 the Co-operative Bank offered its customers low interest



loans to ‘green’ their homes. Out of a six figurecirculation about 60 responded and just over 30took up the offer. Companies carrying outprojects under the Energy Efficiency Standardsof Performance (EESoP) regime of thegovernment of that time had difficultypersuading householders to accept energyefficiency improvements even when they werefree.Things are not very different today.

There is no avoiding the fact that, if there isto be robust participation in a voluntaryupgrading programme by homeowners, therehas to be a financial incentive. Aside from thefuel poor, many in this sector, even today, do notperceive the cost of energy to be a majorproblem. To make an upgrading packageattractive to the fuel secure and to compensatethem for the disruption, the annual cost ofenergy plus repayments for the improvementsshould be at least 15 per cent less than previouslypaid for energy alone on a ‘same warmth basis’.For housing at the lower end of the SAP/EPCscale we could be talking of an 80–90 per centimprovement in the thermal efficiency of theproperty so that ‘same warmth’ energy billswould show a substantial reduction, leaving asignificant margin for increased comfort. It isevident that, for many properties, raising thethermal standard to economic comfort levelswould incur excessive repayment costs if marketrates of return are included.

One outcome of the EPSRC research wasthat the fuel-secure homeowners will only comeon board in significant numbers if 10–15 yearloans for upgrading are available at low interestand can be paid off if a house is sold before theredemption of the debt.This means there wouldneed to be a subsidy to bridge the gap betweenthe cost acceptable to the homeowners and amarket rate of return on the loan with perhapshalf met by the government and the remainderby the energy companies.This would be a logicaldestination for receipts from carbon trading. Forsome it might be necessary to seek low startloans with repayments linked to inflation, thuskeeping the real repayment cost more or lessconstant.

To summarize, the attractions for thehomeowner are:

• an increase in house value;• diminishing real cost of retrofit repayments

over 15 years if based on a fixed repaymentbasis;

• reduced maintenance costs;• increased comfort;• improved health;• substantial reduction in energy costs once

the loan has been repaid;• a permanent relative cushion against steeply

rising energy prices, especially after ‘peak oil’.

Private rented homes

Undoubtedly the most challenging problemconcerns the private rented sector where tenantsnormally meet all their energy costs.There maybe no way of avoiding coercive legislation. First,legislation will be needed to require localauthorities to obtain proof of satisfactory heatingstandards as a condition of releasing housingbenefit, bringing private landlords more into linewith registered social landlords.

Second, there should be a requirement thataccommodation offered for rent should achievea minimum of EPC level C by a target date, say2020. In the meantime, there should be rigorousapplication of the regulation that if a property ismaterially altered then the whole propertyshould be raised to current building regulationsstandards.

Unfortunately, properties at the bottom end ofthe ‘hard to treat’ category will be beyond even themost generous cost-effective upgrading and herethe only option will be to demolish and rebuild.

Cost estimatesThe cost of upgrading by overcladding existingterraced, solid wall homes with 75–100mm ofinsulation is currently ~£8–10,000; the averageunit cost of central heating is ~£4–5000.However, as explained above, installing energyefficient central heating in homes that areinadequately insulated is inefficient. ProfessorPaul Elkins (cited in Green Alliance, 2009) hasthis prescription for the housing stock: ‘Theultimate goal of this programme [CERT] should



be to make one million homes per year super-efficient, which is likely to entail, on relativelyconservative assumptions, expenditure of about£10,000 per home, totalling an investment ofabout £10 billion per annum. Even then itwould take a quarter of a century to bring theUK housing stock up to the levels of energyefficiency implied by the 80 per cent reductiontarget’, which is the UK commitment for 2050.

However, when benefits are factored in, thepicture becomes less daunting. The EPSRCresearch programme cited above suggested that a15 year programme, assuming a 6 per centdiscount rate, would yield a net social benefit ofaround £2.4 billion. It will now be greater.Further benefits should accrue when the nextround of the carbon trading scheme isimplemented in 2013.

Benefits to the Exchequer

• more disposable capital from reduced energycosts;

• reduced demands on social services;• National Health Service (NHS) savings with

fewer cold and damp related illnesses;• the CO2 emissions reductions assisting the

UK target;• in 2001 employment gains were estimated at

one new job for every £39,000 directly anda further job for each £80,000 due to theindirect creation of employment (the respendfactor). These figures should be adjusted forinflation. In a time of high unemployment inthe construction industry, there is also theavoided job seekers’ allowance.

In summary, there are six key points.

• For there to be a significant uptake in theprivate sector (over 50 per cent) the creditallowed over 15 years for the upgradingelement should be at low interest.

• Once the upgrading is complete, thereshould be a minimum of a net 15 per centreduction in combined energy andrepayment costs as against former energycosts alone.

• For the fuel poor (on the formula ofdisposable income) grants should meet thetotal cost of upgrading.

• The implementation should be on a once-and-for-all rolling programme basis, startingwith neighbourhoods with the highestincidence of fuel poverty.

• Private landlords must be obliged to provideproof of satisfactory heating standards withthe requirement that their properties shouldreach the standard of EPC level C by 2020.

• The skills shortage means that a trainingprogramme should be instituted as a matterof urgency to create an army of retrofitoperatives qualified to a national standard.

The problem with setting standards like 80 per cent carbon reduction is that they do notrelate to a fixed baseline. Households are almostinfinitely variable in their pattern of energy use aswell as the thermal efficiency of their properties.It would be better to establish what are theoptimum technical measures that can be affordedover, say, a 15 year upgrading programme.

Whilst the overall costs estimated by Boardman(Boardman, 2005, pp100–101) are substantial, itcan be argued that they are justifiable in the lightof the billions spent on rescuing financialinstitutions from the results of their avarice andirresponsibility.

Eco-renovation of historichousesBetween 2009 and 2014 the National Trust isembarking on a programme to renovate over5000 buildings to meet a set of minimumenvironmental standards. These will includeinstalling maximum loft insulation, double orsecondary glazing, thermostatic heating controls,efficient lighting systems, water saving devicesand rainwater storage. This is a formidablechallenge for a property stock that includescastles, stately homes, churches, farm cottages,urban terrace and semi-detached houses andpublic houses. The majority of buildings havehistoric value, which means that eco-renovation



has to be sensitive to both their historic andaesthetic qualities. Since most of the stock isVictorian and older, environmental interventionscan have a significant impact on the waybuildings perform as well as their long-termintegrity.

The Trust is committed to achievingsignificant reductions in energy use and theincidence of waste. Where possible localmaterials will be used and local services engaged.As a charity the Trust is constrained regardingavailable funds. However, it recognizes that manyof these undertakings will reduce its operationalcosts. For example, it is working with its partnernpower to instal biomass heating systems andsolar technology.

Technical recommendationsThere is only space here to offer a flavour of thetechnical options currently available to refurbishexisting homes to be at least level C of the EPCstandards.

Solid wall houses

In all cases roofs/lofts should receive a minimumof 250mm of insulation, with pipes and coldwater tanks fully lagged. External walls should beinsulated to the highest standard that istechnically feasible. In the case of ~130mm solidwall construction, where possible this shouldreceive overcladding with at least 100mm ofinsulation if using mineral fibre or 75mm usingphenolic foam finished with a waterproofrender. Cavity wall homes from the late 1920sshould receive either overcladding with 75mmphenolic foam or dry lining insulation such asproprietary aerogel on backing as well as cavityinsulation.

All windows should be replaced with theequivalent of triple glazing preferably in timberframes with a U-value of at least 0.8W/m2K.Buildings in conservation areas pose a specialproblem. Here secondary glazing is often the onlyoption. In all cases external doors should be tocurrent building regulation thermal standards.

One of the most abundant house typeswhere fuel poverty is implicated is 19th-centuryterraced houses (Figures 9.3 and 9.4). Thesehouses are usually narrow fronted and deep plan,with an L-shaped rear plan.The walls are 9 inch(22.5cm) brick with the front elevation finishedin facing bricks and the rear in common bricks.

One strategy that has been suggested is tooverclad the rear of these houses – whichcomprises the majority wall area – and dry-linethe front walls with insulation. This operationinvolves modifications to eave details and soiland rainwater pipes, although not necessarily theground connections. Other problems may occurat window reveals and corners.

A major source of heat loss is due to theground floor construction.With solid floors theonly option is to lay 25mm of rigid insulationover the existing floor. Doors, skirtings, etc. thenneed to be modified.Where there are suspendedtimber floors, the best strategy is to replace themwith concrete floors topped with rigidinsulation.The alternative is to fill between joistswith insulation, which will involve raising thefloorboards. If there is sufficient underfloor spaceto allow access, insulation can be installedwithout excessive disruption.

It has been claimed that up to 40 per cent ofheat lost in older properties is due to leakage.Open fire places are a rapid exit route for heatwhen not in use.To keep the option of a flamefire, the only solution is a closed wood-burningstove with a flue lining. Draught exclusion is animportant part of the thermal efficiencyprogramme.The standard method of measurementof air tightness is to assess the rate of air changeper hour through leakage when the building ispressurised to 50 Pascals. A typical new housecould have a rate of change of 15 air changes perhouse (15ACH50P),2 so we can assume thatolder dwellings will be significantly worse. Toput this into perspective, for new homes it isrecommended that the rate is 2ACH50P. In allcases where there are significant improvementsin air tightness, it is vital to incorporatemechanical or passive stack ventilation thatachieves at least one air change per hour. Areasonable compromise leakage rate for olderproperties should be 5–6ACH50P.




LIVINGROOM

BEDRM2

DN

BEDRM1

BEDRM3

KITCHEN

PARLOUR

BAT

HR

M

Figure 9.4 Ubiquitous Victorian semi-detached houses, Sheffield, UK

Figure 9.3 Layout of typical 19th-century terraced houses


Extract ventilation over cookers is vital.Consideration should be given to air extractionthat is automatically activated by the presence ofcarbon monoxide/nitrogen dioxide even wherethere are electric cookers, since these may beconverted to gas at a later stage.As a general rule,mains connected smoke alarms should be fitted,but not in kitchens where heat detectors aremore appropriate.

For space heating, in wet systems condensingboilers should be suitably sized for the thermalefficiency of the dwelling. All radiators shouldhave thermostatic valves to enable them to beindividually set in conjunction with appropriatecentral controls. Controls and thermostats shouldbe simple to understand and operate.

The domestic item that, in most cases, isresponsible for the greatest consumption ofelectricity is the fridge-freezer. Including anultra-low energy (Scandinavian) unit in thepackage would have a significant impact onelectricity bills. (For more information seeSmith, 2004.)

Case study: Victorian solid wall property

Number 17 St Augustine Road was effectivelyderelict when Camden Council decided itshould be refurbished and let as social housing(Figure 9.5). Its specification includes:

• all windows fitted with high specificationwood frame argon-filled double glazing;

• external cladding with Kingspan insulationgiving a U-value of 0.19W/m2K;

• floor and internal insulation;• roof insulation with a U-value of

0.15W/m2K;• an air tightness standard of 6.7m3/m2/hr at

50pa. Note: this is a UK standard; elsewherethe EU and US the measure is: air changesfrom the total volume per hour at 50pa.There is no way of truly comparing them.

This has been an expensive operation, andCamden Council could not remotely afford toupgrade all its solid wall housing stock to thisstandard. So, not only is it a demonstration of

best practice refurbishment, it also demonstratesthat government support will be essential if thehousing problem is to be addressed.

Multi-storey refurbishmentOf the multi-storey housing that remains, muchof it is still under local authority or housingassociation control. This has enabled awidespread programme of refurbishment to beundertaken supported by government subsidies.Sheffield has a typical stock of high riseapartments that are currently undergoingrefurbishment (Figure 9.6).

The verdict on completed examples is thatthere was a small reduction in energyconsumption but a big improvement in comfortand health.There was a significant reduction in


Source: Camden Borough Council

Figure 9.5 17 Augustine Road, Camden, London


associated CO2 emissions. On the negative side,there was much disquiet at the increase in rent tocover the cost of the improvements.

Case study: Hawkridge House, hall ofresidence, University College, London

A multi-storey refurbishment that sets thestandard for existing high rise buildings has beenundertaken by a UK university.According to Tony

Nuttall of Cole Thompson Anders,Architects forthe project:‘Hawkridge House refurbishment wascompleted this year [2008] with 100mmStotherm expanded polystyrene externalovercladding installed over the existing ReemaPrecast Concrete Panel construction – mineralwool wasn’t suitable due to wind loading.A U-value of 0.28 was achieved.’ (Figure 9.7.)

Notes1 There is a problem with the algorithm

underpinning the EPC in that it is derived fromRD SAP 05 (Standard Assessment Procedure),considered by some to be flawed.

2 This is the EU/US method of measurementrather than the UK system.


Figure 9.6 Cemetery Road flats, Sheffield, UK, 2009

Source: Photograph courtesy of Cole Thompson Anders

Figure 9.7 Hawkridge House, London University,after refurbishment


Across the European Union, buildings accountfor about half of all CO2 emissions. In the UK,housing is responsible for about 27 per centleaving all other buildings responsible for 23 per cent.The ‘other buildings’ contains: publicbuildings – government offices, both local andnational, hospitals, schools and universities –commercial offices and industrial premises.

The UK government has set targets for CO2

reductions in its own buildings, and, in almost allcases,has fallen well short, even in the case of someof the most recently constructed buildings. Thetarget is a 12.5 per cent reduction by 2010–2011.Overall there has been a 4 per cent reduction butthis is mainly due to savings in the Ministry ofDefence (MOD) estate. If this is excluded there isactually an increase of 22 per cent.Even the MODreductions are distorted by the delegating of someof its role to the private company QuinetiQ. If thisis taken into account, the overall reduction acrossthe Crown Estates falls to 0.7 per cent (SustainableDevelopment Commission, 2007).

The dichotomy between architecturalaesthetic quality and energy efficiency isillustrated in the extreme in the Imperial WarMuseum North. Its architect, Daniel Libeskind,was probably not given an energy efficiencybrief, so he cannot be blamed for the fact that hisiconic building comes bottom on the EnergyPerformance Certificate scale,A–G. Some of thesharpest criticism has been levelled against theflagship development of Portcullis House, arecent extension to the Palace of Westminster. Inanswer to a parliamentary question, it was shownto be consuming about 400kWh/m2, which isover four times more than envisaged. In part thismay be due to the way the building has been

used, especially in the exponential growth ofinformation technology (IT) activity. This alsoconfounded the designers of the ground-breaking Zicer Building at the University of EastAnglia and it highlights a fundamental problemfaced across the non-domestic sector.

A report by the Worldwatch Institute suggetsthat the growing reliance on the Internet isimplicated in the rapid increase in related CO2

emissions from offices.The prediction is that theenergy required to meet the needs of Internetuse and data storage can be expected to doubleby 2020 according to data analysts McKinsey andcompany (Manyika et al, 2008). Much of thisincrease is due to rapid growth in Internet use inChina and India, where electricity is mostlygenerated by coal fired plants. In 2007 Chinaaccounted for 23 per cent of global carbonemissions related to IT (Block, 2008).

This makes it all the more important that newbuildings across the non-domestic sectormaximize their energy efficiency. The USDepartment of Energy (DoE) has launched aZero-Net Energy Commercial Buildings Initiative(CBI). Advanced green building technology plusonsite renewable electricity generation will aim toachieve the net zeroC goal by 2025. Theprogramme will be driven by the collaboration offive national laboratories on the scientificresources. They will promote the ‘transformationof the built environment, lower our carbonfootprint in buildings and accelerate commercialdeployment of clean, efficiency buildingtechnologies’ (David Rogers, US Deputy AssistantSecretary for Energy Efficiency, May 2007.)

The Energy Independence and Security Actof 2007 authorizes the Department of Energy to

10

Non-domestic Buildings


collaborate with the private sector, the DoE’sNational Laboratories, other federal agencies andnon-government organizations to advance highperformance green buildings.

The DoE’s programme is worth quotingsince it has implications for all developed anddeveloping countries. It will promote:

• research and development on technology;• sponsorship of pilot and demonstration

projects across multiple climate zones;• provision of technical assistance to

encourage widespread technology adoption;• the development of training materials and

programmes for builders;• public education on the need for efficiency

in new and existing buildings;• the work of code-setting bodies to ensure

technologies are properly deployed;• the analysis of incentives for builders,

landlords and tenants to ensure cost-effectiveinvestments are made on a life-cycle basis;

• the development of a method to measureand verify energy savings.

Zero carbon for offices (defined in Chapter 5)will become mandatory in the UK during thesecond decade of this century.The scale of thechallenge is clear from Figures 10.1 and 10.2since the standard air conditioned office is still

the preferred option in the speculative officesector.

According to services engineers FaberMaunsell,over 50 per cent of CO2 emissions derivefrom non-building related equipment. The fastestgrowing energy demand is from IT equipment. Intheir prescription for the low carbon office, FaberMaunsell recommend minimizing heating, coolingand lighting demand by means of:

• low energy appliances;• good air tightness;• shading;• solar protection;• natural light;• mixed mode ventilation.

This, in turn, requires the efficiency optimizationof systems to reduce CO2:

• heat recovery;• natural ventilation;• variable speed drives on pumps and fans

(including soft start motors);• natural ventilation;• lighting control systems;• combined heat and power;• tri-generation where appropriate; e.g.biomass

thermal engine producing electricity, directheat and secondary heat from the exhaust.


Source: ECON 19 and Faber Maunsell

Figure 10.1 Energy use according to office type

800

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The UK’s building regulations are catching upwith the problem of overheating in offices andteaching spaces. Part L2A requires that the riskof overheating must be assessed for roomswithout additional cooling. The temperaturelimit for offices and teaching spaces is25–26°C.

The overheating criterion for commercialoffices is that the temperature should not exceed28°C for more than 1 per cent of the occupiedtime. Assessment should be made using theChartered Institution of Building ServicesEngineers (CIBSE) Design Summer Year (DSY)guide.The normal range of design temperaturesfor all main teaching, office and recreationalspaces should be 21–26°C.

In Manchester, planners require:

• at least 25 per cent reduction in CO2 asagainst Part L2;

• at least 20 per cent of total site energydemand to be met by onsite renewables;

• BREEAM ‘Very Good’ rating as a minimum.

Case studiesThe Innovate Green Office, ThorpeTrading Estate, Leeds

The architects for this development were RioArchitects and the environmental engineersKing Shaw Associates.

Speculative offices have, on the whole, beenthe last to go beyond building regulations interms of their environmental specification. TheInnovate Green Office (Figure 10.3) is anexception, having received the highest everBREEAM rating at 87.55 per cent. Animportant contributor to this rating is the highthermal mass of the structural hollowcoreconcrete used. It emits 80 per cent less CO2 thana conventional air conditioned office at22kgCO2/m2. It does this without anycontribution from renewable sources of power,making it an outstanding example of passivedesign based on first principles: orientation,thermal mass, maximization of natural light and

Non-domestic Buildings 95

Source: ECON 19 and Faber Maunsell

Figure 10.2 CO2 emissions according to office type

200

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150

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high levels of insulation (Figure 10.4). It achievesthis by means of:

• concrete exposed internally to reduceextremes of temperature by thermal mass;

• use of recycled materials for concrete andreinforcement;

• floor and roof members are planks byTermoDeck with their cross-connectedhollow cores to provide supply air. (TheTermoDeck system works in conjunctionwith controlled mechanical ventilation toexploit the heat exchange between thestructure and the internal environment. It actsas a thermal labyrinth, emitting air throughperforations in the slab.The building’s fabricstores solar gain, releasing it overnight);

• a high level of insulation means that internalgains provide the majority of useful heat;

• mechanical ventilation with heat recoverymeans that heat gains from people, andincreasingly from computers, enables an airhandling unit (AHU) to collect heat gain andstore it within the TermoDeck for later reuse;

• summer cooling is provided by acombination of passive night purging andactive cooling from a chiller usingTermoDeck as a thermal (cool) store;

• a vacuum drainage system harvests rainwaterto be used to flush toilets;

• permeable paving and a natural wetland areareduce the risk of flash flooding.

The result of these measures is a building that isclaimed to be 80 per cent more energy efficientthan a typical comparable air conditioned office.The proportion of energy needed for spaceheating is 12 per cent compared with 44 per cent


Source: Photograph: Jon Littlewood, TermoDeck

Figure 10.3 Innovate Green Office, Thorpe Trading Estate, Leeds

Figure 10.4 Innovate Green Office section


for a conventional office, thanks to ventilationbeing by means of heat recovery.

The Natural Trust HQ Heelis Building,Swindon

The Heelis building (Figure 10.5) was inspired bythe previous occupant of the Swindon site, whichwas Brunel’s railway engineering works. The

design was also driven by the requirement that thefour disparate arms of the National Trust shouldbe accommodated in a single, open plan building.

The architects, Feilden Clegg Bradley,concluded that the answer was a deep plan, lowrise building covering the whole site (Figures10.6 and 10.7).

The southern part of the building containsthe public areas and is naturally lit with fullheight glazing and roof lights. A colonnade


Source: Courtesy of Feilden Clegg Bradley, Architects

Figure 10.5 Heelis building southeast elevation

Source: Courtesy Feilden Clegg Bradley

Figure 10.6 Heelis building site layout


provides shading as well as an open air extensionto the public area. The dominant aspect of thedesign is the 21st century interpretation of thenorthlight trusses of the Brunel building. Theclient, architects and services engineer, MaxFordham, are all strongly committed tosustainability principles in design and so it wasinevitable that this would be an iconic exampleof bioclimatic architecture.

Initially there was a debate regarding thechoice of structure between timber and steel.Timber would seem to be the obvious ecologicalchoice. However, if much of the steel was fromrecycled sources the difference becamenegligible, especially as the steel could berecycled again more efficiently than timber.Consequently steel was selected, resulting in anunobtrusive internal grid of slender cylindricalcolumns.

The irregularity of the site inspired the roofgeometry that, in turn, provided opportunities tocreate a variety of internal spaces including twocourtyards and an atrium.The accommodation ison two storeys with work stations distributedbetween ground and mezzanine floors. Thenorthlight trusses are orientated north/south tomaximize natural light. The design briefincluded a requirement to provide as much

electricity as possible from renewable sources.The high ratio of roof to wall made PVs theobvious choice. In deciding on the appropriatePV cells, desk top studies indicated thatpolycrystalline silicon cells would offer thehighest yield. The south facing slopes of thetrusses provide a 1400m2 platform forphotovoltaic cells at a 30° pitch. Accordingly,1554 PV panels were installed, estimated to meetabout 40 per cent of electricity demand.The PVsextend beyond the ridges to provide shading andweather protection.

However, uncertainty surrounds the energydemand from equipment, notably computers.Office equipment has overtaken lighting as themain cause of CO2 emissions in most recentlydesigned offices and the estimate is that the gapwill widen. There is still the problem that thepayback period for PVs is well in excess of theexpected lifetime of the cells. For the NationalTrust this problem was resolved by a grant fromthe Department of Trade and Industry.

The striking features of the trusses are theroof vents or ‘snouts’ that regulate the building’spassive, natural ventilation system. In winterthere is the problem that natural ventilationsystems can create cold draughts. Consequently alow level mechanical ventilation system has been


Source: Couttesy Feilden Clegg Bradley

Figure 10.7 Heelis aerial view



introduced to recover heat from the exhaust airto warm ventilation air that is then distributedthrough raised floor plenums. It was expectedthat this system would reduce the overall heatrequirement from 49 to 13kWh/ m2/year. Someopening windows are controlled by the buildingmanagement system (BMS) whilst others can be operated manually in pursuit of cooling(Figure 10.8).

In a mainly naturally ventilated, low energybuilding, it is impossible to maintain a consistentinternal climate. However, the passive ventilationsystem was designed to provide a workingenvironment in which the temperature is lessthan 25°C for 95 per cent of working hours andless than 28°C for 99 per cent of working hours.

One of the most important features of thebuilding is its high thermal mass, the benefits ofwhich will become more apparent as climatechange accelerates. The concrete roof and floorslabs are cooled overnight by the BMS-controlled natural ventilation system, whichworks on the buoyancy principle to expel heatthrough the snouts.At the same time the systemdraws fresh air through motorized windows andinlet vents. Additional thermal mass is providedby the external walls of Staffordshire blueengineering bricks bedded in lime mortar tofacilitate recycling. Both the roof and windowsare made of aluminium, which has highembodied energy but which is countered by theavailability of recycled stock.

The timber used throughout the buildinghas been harvested from sustainable woodland,with much of it from National Trust estates.Carpet tiles were manufactured with wool fromHerdwick sheep grazed on National Trustfarmland. To give the tiles the wearing capacityfor office use, the wool was mixed with smallquantities of nylon and carbon. In line withcurrent guidelines, the use of volatile organiccompounds (VOCs) was kept to a minimum.

The land surrounding the building has beenlandscaped using indigenous species such asgroups of silver birch.These provide shade to theexposed area to the south. Hornbeam and oakdefine the northern boundary whilst lavenderand alliums enrich the colonnade.

One of the reasons for choosing this site wasits proximity to the main line railway station,enabling the number of car spaces to be reducedto one for every three members of staff – wellbelow the permitted number under the planningrules. The car park serves another purpose.According to the Environment Agency, the site isat risk of flooding, therefore a undergroundbunded tank lined with clay intercepts waterprior to its discharge into the drainage system.

Post Occupancy Evaluation (POE)

In its first year Heelis performed well. Duringthe hottest period in July, outside temperaturesexceeded 30°C on four days but the internaltemperatures only once peaked above 28°C andwere less than 25°C for over half of the month.The POE has identified areas for improvementand many of these concern the way in which thebuilding is used. The National Trust hasimplemented staff training to reduce energy useand environmental impact. Despite theseinevitable feedback aspects, this building must beclose to realizing its design ambition to be thelowest energy consumption office building inthe country. (Latham and Swenarton, 2007)

Centre for Energy Efficiency in Building,Tsinghua University, Beijing

It was considered appropriate to include one ofthe most environmentally advanced buildings inChina in this brief overview of the state of theart in 2009. China has much to lose as climatechange gathers pace and it is adapting rapidly tochanging circumstances.

Completed in March 2005 the Centre forEnergy Efficiency in Building is the firstdemonstration project for ultra-low energybuilding in China. It accommodates almost 100energy efficiency technologies including sevendifferent systems in two facades with changeableelements (Figure 10.9).

The ‘smart’ envelope is designed to cope withthe changing climate with ten alternativetechnologies. Glazed elements have a U-value of


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<1.0W/m2K; the insulated walls and roof are<0.3W/m2K.The average heating load in winteris 0.7W/m2 with 2.3W/m2 in the coldest month.Altogether the heating and cooling load is 10 per cent of conventional offices.Three versionsof double skin curtain wall on the east elevationare designed to test thermal performance.

In the first version, the naturally ventilatedplenum is 600mm wide (Figure 10.10). Thefixed inner pane is double-glazed with low-eglass.The outer skin is single glazed 6mm glass.Motorized inlet and outlet vents help to controlthe internal temperature. Two light shelves ofstainless steel mirrors direct sunlight to theinterior. Within the plenum a bottom-fixedblind can be raised just far enough to admitdaylight from the upper part of the window.Motorized external blinds in the curtain wallrespond to the seasonal solar angle.

On the south elevation, three configurationsare demonstrated with different veriations ofplenum and ventilation. The west and northfacades employ lightweight constructioncomprising an aluminium rain screen, 50mm of

polyurethane insulation, 150mm of fibreinsulation and an internal leaf of 80mm gympumblocks.The latter are made of by-products fromthe desulfurization of power plants. Thepolyurethane insulation is produced fromrecycled plastic bottles.

There are two versions of roof.The first is agreen roof with nine variations of plant toexplore the most suitable types and maintenanceregimes. The second is a glazed ‘eco-cabin’ tohouse experiments to test the CO2 fixingcapacity of different plants. The floor is raised1.2m to accommodate service ducts. Phasechange materials embodied in the floor platefacilitate thermal storage and even outtemperature fluctuations.

The climate of Beijing allows for naturalventilation during spring and autumn. Winddriven ventilation combined with thermalbuoyancy aided by a glass chimney enhance thenatural ventilation. Air circulates via corridorsand three shafts in the staircases. Thermalcomfort in the offices is aided by displacementventilation and radiative/chilled ceilings.


Figure 10.9 Centre for Energy Efficiency in Building, Tsinghua University, Beijing


Daylight is directed to the basement by a lightduct or sun pipe. The light is captured by a group of parabolic solar discs on the roof thatcan reflect light 200m with an efficiency of 30 per cent.

Energy systems

Combined heat and power is the principalenergy system delivered by a natural gas firedturbine. It meets the electricity demands of thebuildings. Any excess is exported to theuniversity grid. In winter the system serves the heating system directly achieving 95 per cent

efficiency by capturing exhaust heat. In summerthe low grade exhaust heat is used to regeneratethe humidifier liquid to meet the latent heatload.The high grade heat is used to drive a heatpump for cooling. A ground source heat pumpexploits the constant ground temperature of15°C to provide cooling water at 16–18°C.Evaporative cooling supplements the system.Themaximum cooling load is 120kW.

An array of 30m2 of monocrystalline PVswith a peak power of 5kW provides gardenlighting with LEDs. The electricity is stored inbatteries to provide lighting at night and on dulldays.There is also a solar air system with a peak


Figure 10.10 Environmental control double skin facade, east elevation


thermal output of 140kW. In summer the warmair is used to regenerate the dehumidifier. Inwinter it feeds directly into the air conditioningsystem.

A BMS optimizes services within thebuilding, including heating and cooling watermanagement, natural ventilation and airconditioning. It also meters electricity, gasconsumption and heat generated as well aselectricity and heat produced by the CHP andsolar power. In addition, it logs meteorologicaldata and monitors the thermal performance ofthe building envelope to the level of roomtemperatures together with humidity, CO2

concentration and light levels. In total over 1000sensors provide information for research andteaching. Figure 10.11 provides a comprehensivekey to the environmental and energy efficiencyfeatures of the building.

Pujiang Intelligence Valley (PIV)

This is an ambitious development near Shanghaithat indicates China’s ambition to demonstrateits commitment to the environmental agenda.The complex will feature buildings amountingto roughly 730,000m2 in area. Phase one of thedevelopment has a site area of 200,000m2

and the gross floor area of 240,000m2. Six‘business’ buildings occupy the centre of the site (Figure 10.12).

Four research and development buildings arelocated to the west and fourteen administrativebuildings to the east of the site. Extensivelandscaping centres around lakes amount to13,000m2 (Figure 10.13).

The aim of PIV is to:

• stimulate software research and development(R&D), including animation R&D;

• provide data and design centres;• create a design and training centre;• offer multimedia facilities.

It will provide training facilities across a range ofsubjects. The environmental specificationincludes:

• high levels of wall insulation;• low emissivity double glazing U-value

1.5W/m2K;• 100 per cent natural ventilation, supplying

20m3 per hour for every 15m2 withhumidity 30–70 per cent;

• low energy lighting;• external sun shading with solar refracting

blinds;• heating and cooling pipes contained within

floors;• ground source heat pumps;• photovoltaic cells;• solar thermal panels;• rainwater collection and purification system;• extensive roof gardens;• landscaping with trees, shrubs and grasslands

not just as an amenity for workers but alsoto attract wildlife.

The 106,000m2 buildings already constructedwill save 8220 tonnes of CO2 per year byavoiding coal fired power generation. This is abold attempt to provide an ambitiousdevelopment that creates comfortable internalconditions and is set in an extensive naturalenvironment designed to attract wildlife as wellas provide recreational space for the workers.

Case study summary

As a conclusion to this first section of thechapter, for the future, offices should follow theexample of the few and have highly insulateddouble skin facades with integral flexible solarshading. The space can act as a plenum oraccommodate vertical ducts to carry supply andextract air. The exhaust air will pass through aheat exchanger, perhaps boosted by groundsource heat pumps. Natural ventilation via an airhandling unit (AHU) must be the norm, ifnecessary mechanically assisted by low powerfans.Air is ducted through floors, for example, byusing the TermoDeck system (Figure 10.14).

Flash floods will be an increasing feature ofclimate change. Swales or depressions to channelwater to bunded tanks under landscaping and car




15

14131211

109

5

3

4

1

2322 20

19

18

2

17

16

1 Natural ventilation and light shaft2 PV glass3 Double skin facade with external ventilation and narrower air gap (prefabricated)4 Double skin facade with internal ventilation and narrower air gap (prefabricated)5 Vacuum double facade6 Solar lighting for basement7 Solar lighting for night8 Artificial wetland9 Curtain wall10 Motored horizontal shading11 Motored openable window12 Motored vertical shading13 Window with anti-bridge aluminium frame14 Double skin facade with external ventilation and wider air gap15 Elevated floor with phase-change material16 Self-cleaning glass17 Eco-cabin18 Insulated window19 Lightweight insulated wall20 Chimney for natural ventilation21 Green roof22 Solar disc23 Solar air collectorSource: Derived from the exhibition board in Building Energy Research CentrePhotograph: Ruyan Sun

87

6

Figure 10.11 Energy Efficiency Centre environmental agenda


parks will be needed in areas increasingly at riskof flooding. Conversely, severe droughts are alsoin the frame, and therefore water conservationmust take on a new dimension of importancewith recycling and purification high on theagenda.The implications for foundations in claysoils must also be taken into account.

Not only because of climate change, but alsobecause of security of supply, energy willincreasingly become a matter of concern. The

building envelope should aim to be carbonneutral – even carbon negative – with the use ofcarbon sequestering materials. Its design shouldprovide maximum opportunity for the installationof photovoltaic and solar thermal panels, especiallywith the prospect of much improved installedcost/kW of PVs in near future. Some sites willfavour small scale wind power – bearing in mindthat the load factor/COP of wind technologynow has little room for improvement. On the


Figure 10.12 Pujiang Intelligence Valley, Business Centre, Shanghai, China

Figure 10.13 Intelligence Valley Phase One


other hand, there are claims that the COP ofground source heat pumps still has some way togo. Pile foundations coupled with GSHP loopsare an economical option.

Whilst the energy requirement of thebuilding envelope may continue to fall,uncertainty surrounds the future electricitydemands of IT, which currently can account for50 per cent of the total for the building.According to Max Fordham ‘in a low energyoffice building [IT equipment] will remain thelargest source of carbon dioxide emissions(Fordham, 2007, p131). This is one reason whythere should be an adequate margin in thesupply of renewable energy, which probablycannot all be obtained onsite.

The harsh reality is that the bulk of officesand institutional/administrative buildings willnever achieve zero carbon status even when thecontribution from onsite renewables is takeninto account. It has already been suggested that

zero carbon can be achieved by purchasingcarbon credits under the European EmissionsTrading Scheme. The extreme view of thisdevice has been expressed by James Lovelock:

Carbon trading, with its huge governmentsubsidies, is just what finance and industrywanted. It’s not going to do a damn thingabout climate change , but it’ll make a lot ofmoney for a lot of people and postpone themoment of reckoning.

(Lovelock, 2009)

After the debacle of world economics since 2008there are many who are sceptical about using themarket mechanism to counter climate change.There is an alternative: a clean energy levy. In thecase of most offices, there is not sufficient surfacearea to accommodate an adequate capacity of, say,PVs to qualify as zero carbon.The answer is forthe calculated annual energy excess over zero to


GSHP

GSHP

Fresh air

Exhaust air

Negativepressure

Heat exchanger

Figure 10.14 Diagrammatic office section with plenum facade and air handling unit (AHU) detail


be met by an equivalent contribution to utilityscale renewable energy. For example, new officesin London could offer a lifeline to offshore windpower in terms of the cost of the Thames Array.In addition, where there is a significant risk offlooding from a storm surge, as in the Docklandsdevelopment and Thames Gateway, there shouldbe a special levy, as suggested in Chapter 5,contributing to an estuary barrage. Since thiswould also generate considerable power, the twolevies could be amalgamated with an appropriateoverall reduction in the levy.

As an example, current good practice suggeststhat the consumption for offices should be

around 150kWh/m2/year. Taking a modest sizeoffice of 10,000m2, if it can already be creditedwith 50kWh/m2/year from onsite renewables,this leaves a levy liability of 100kWh/m2/year.This adds up to 1000MWh/year. Taking thecapacity (or load) factor into account, this liabilitycould be fulfilled by meeting the cost of a 500kWwind turbine, or one third the cost of an industrystandard 1.5MW machine.This would be a muchmore accurate method of subsidy than relying onthe vagaries of the market. In the face of the twincrises that are looming – climate change anddepleting energy reserves – such a levy system isthe most appropriate.


Heating load target 20kWh/m2/year

Electrical load target 25kWh/m2/year

Air tightness <3m3/hr/m2

Daylighting 100% to BS 8206 Pt2

Artificial lighting controls Luminance and person detectionDimming controls with building management system override

Heating/cooling Dual action ground source heat pumpsActive chilled thermal mass

Additional cooling Ground source water cooling for rooms with high internal heat gainsEvaporative cooling where viableSolar thermal circuits below car parks for seasonal heat storageIn areas prone to flooding, surface water storage tanks below car parks, terraces, etc.Alternatively, permeable surfaces to all hard areas

Insulation U-values: W/m2K

Walls 0.10

Average for windows 0.8 (triple-glazed)

Roof 0.10

Ground floor 0.10

Plan Narrow floor plate to maximize daylight and cross ventilation. Where possible includean atriumIdeal orientation: north–south

AppendixStandards of performance for offices of the future in the UK



Structure Design for wind load of 150mph stormDesign for 50°C peak summer temperature re expansion joints and materialsstability

Floors Hollow concrete planks with fairface soffit with cavities facilitating flow and return ofventilation/warm/cool air, for example the Termodeck system

Facade Double skin facades with integral flexible solar shading, the cavity acting as aplenum for heat retention in winter and cooling in summer. The exhaust air will passthrough a heat exchanger, ideally boosted by reversible ground source heat pumps.Natural ventilation via an air handling unit (AHU) (Figure 10.14), if necessary boostedby low power fans

Roofs Green roofs where possible with Monodraught ventilation unitsAlternatively, 30° south facing pitch is ideal for PVs and solar thermal. Thin film PVsare promising for the future

Materials Insulation materialsNo petro-chemical-based insulants. Insulants from renewable sources, e.g. sheep’swool, cellulose, cork

Structure Low carbon concrete via pulverised ash aggregate(example: Persistence Works, Sheffield by Feilden Clegg Bradley)Design for dismantling and reuse of elements

Recycling Maximize prefabrication to minimize waste and facilitate recycling bricks bondedwith lime mortar for ease of recycling

Steel Better recycling potential than concrete

Timber Should be from certified renewable forestsOnsite composting of vegetable matter and paper

Building managementsystems

User-friendly BMS design with intelligible instructionsAll-staff training in optimization of BMS performance

Biodiversity Tree planting with appropriate species offering solar shadingWide range of plant species around buildingsPools for wildlife and evaporative coolingGreen facades where possible

AppendixStandards of performance for offices of the future in the UK (cont’d)


Some of the most environmentally advancedbuildings are to be found in various buildingsdesigned for community use. One of the leadersin the field is Jubilee Wharf, Penryn quayside,Cornwall (Figure 11.1).

The genetic code of Bill Dunster and theZedfactory is clearly evident in Jubilee Wharf,Penryn, Cornwall, UK. Its shapes areunconventional, yet architectural critic JonathanGlancey considers ‘It fits, in an appropriatelyramshackle way, into the higgledy-piggledyfabric of Penryn … somehow it all fits together’(Guardian, 11 January 2007) (Figure 11.1).

This is a mixed development beside the riverin Penryn consisting of two buildings. Onecomprises 12 studio workshops with sixmaisonettes above. The other accommodates aSure Start nursery, the ZedShed public halloffering community facilities and a café thatalready has a renowned reputation. The two buildings enclose a courtyard establishing apublic walkway along the quayside that hasalready proved a successful social space. It isalready a ‘lively and bustling space’ which, in duecourse, should accommodate a farmers’ market.The design of the waterfront block roof ensuresthat the brisk winds on the harbour are deflectedover the courtyard.

It has been described as a ‘state-of-the-artexample of green architecture’ (Buchanan,2006). The environmental features of thebuilding are encapsulated in a characteristicarchitectural/services drawing, Figure 11.2.

The Jubilee Wharf maisonettes are super-insulated and airtight with glazed sun spaces.

The floors are concrete, adding to the thermalmass. Natural ventilation is by means of wind-orientating cowls designed to cope with theoften extreme wind loads. The workshops havelow grade underfloor heating, as do themaisonettes and community spaces. However,the combination of high insulation and solarorientation plus solar thermal panels on thehigher roof means that it is hardly ever needed.A wood pellet biomass boiler ensurescomfortable conditions in winter. Local labourand materials were used, most notably westernred cedar and larch from the vicinity. All woodused in the construction was from sustainablesources and therefore accredited by the ForestStewardship Council.

Four wind turbines are located on thequayside, and are able to rotate to exploit anywind direction. There are plans to mountphotovoltaic cells, which should enable thecomplex to be a net contributor to the grid.

Jubilee Wharf is a milestone in green designand sets a new example for how small townscan develop, intelligently and economically.

(Peter Buchanan, 2006)

HealthThe primary cancer health care and treatmentcentre at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford is thefirst major hospital in the UK to be entirelyheated and cooled by ground source heat pumps(GSHPs).As such it is deemed to be an exemplar

11

Community Buildings



Source: Courtesy of Zedfactory

Figure 11.1 Jubilee Wharf, Penryn, Cornwall, UK

COWL

THE BLEND SPUR FOR FUTURE

WOOD PELLET STORE

ZEROHEATINGHOMES

BOILER

BUFFLERTANK

IMPORT

THE GRID

EFFECTBUILDINGA RATED APPLIANCEOR BETTER

ELECTRICITY

FROM TUCTUNES/GRID BUILDING 2 USAGE

WINDTURBINE

BUILDINGSPREFILLIED FORWIND FLOW

LIFT

W’SHOP

W’SHOPCOURTYARDPROTECTED FORMWIND

PASSIVE SOLAR GAIN

AIR PREHEATBY COWL

HALLX VEALT

CAFESTH

ALL LOW WATERFIXTURES

LIFT

CLEANWIND FROMESTUARY

SOLAR HOT WATER

HYBRID BUILDINGOCCASIONAL USE-HIGHRESPONSE WITHTHERMAL MASSIVE FLOOR

HEAVY WEIGHT SLDG.IN SUMMER PASSIVE COOLING IN WINTER STORES PASSIVE SOLAR GAIN UNTIL REQUIRED.

SOLAR HOT WATERON CONSTRUCT SPACEFOR IV ETC

TYPICAL U = 0-1 W/M2KWINDOW U = 1-6 W/M2K OVERALLAURTIGHTNESS (TESTED) 2ACH @50FA

Source: Courtesy of Zedfactory

Figure 11.2 Jubilee Wharf, environmental credentials


for future hospital design. The National HealthService (NHS) operates Europe’s largestproperty portfolio and, as such, has recognizedthe importance of its estate’s environmentalimpact. It has set itself a target of reducingprimary energy consumption by 15 per cent byMarch 2010. Ground energy is a reliable sourceof heat, day and night, winter and summer.

The Oxford Radcliffe Hospitals NHS Trustdecided from the outset that the new Churchillfacilities were to be exemplars of energyefficient, low carbon hospital design. Servicesengineers Haden Young engaged EarthEnergy astechnical advisors on this project to review andaudit the ground loop heat exchanger design. Italso undertook in situ thermal conductivitytesting of the installed boreholes and usedcomputer modelling of the ground loop to assessits thermal performance over its design life. It isan all-closed loop ground source heating andcooling system.This consists of 8 × 500kW heatpumps delivering around 2.5MW of heating.Because it is a hospital, redundancy had to bedesigned into the system. There are noalternative heating or cooling backup systems forthe hospital (Figure 11.3).

This is the first major public building to relyon GSHP technology for its heating and coolingand demonstrates that this technology shouldhave an important role to play in the future in alow energy environment, even for large buildingcomplexes.

EducationBecause the school environment shapesmalleable minds, a building that responds to theenvironmental challenges of the age should leavea lasting impression. Environmental determinismhas taken on a new meaning, equipping studentsto play a leading role in the difficult times ahead.In 2006 the UK government produced aconsultative document on sustainable schools. Itstates: ‘By 2020 the DCSF [Department forChildren Schools and Families] would like allschools to become models of energy efficiencyand renewable energy, showcasing wind, solarand biofuel sources in their communities.’ PartL2 of the 2006 Building Regulations requiresthat a school’s energy demand must be reducedby 25 per cent as against the 2002 Regulations.In 2007 the Department for Communities andLocal Government (DCLG) stipulated that allnew schools should achieve at least ‘very good’under the BREEAM Schools (BuildingResearch Establishment EnvironmentalAssessment Method for Schools). This wouldinvolve:

• energy;• water use;• materials;• pollution;• ecology;• management and health.

However, a pacemaker building that predatesthe environment and energy crises is St George’sSchool in Wallasey, Cheshire. It was the firsttruly passive solar educational building designedby Charles Emslie Morgan of Cheshire CountyArchitects Department and completed in 1961.It features a passive solar wall extending acrossthe whole south elevation. It has an innovativenatural light and ventilation system, withinsulation standards well ahead of its time. Thisresulted in a dramatically reduced heating loadcompared with the norm of the day. Due tofalling rolls it is now a school catering for specialneeds – a function for which it was notdesigned.

Community Buildings 111

Source: Photograph courtesy of EarthEnergy Ltd

Figure 11.3 Ground source heat pumps plant room,Churchill Hospital, Oxford


St Francis of Assisi, Liverpool

Under the Building Schools for the Future (BSF)scheme, the UK government aims to renew orrebuild every secondary school in Englandwithin 15 years. Under this BFS standard, schoolsmust achieve a ‘very good’ rating under theBREEAM Schools assessment scheme.

One of the schools to set the pace for currentenvironmental standards is the Academy of St Francis of Assisi in Liverpool, designed byCapita Architecture and completed in March2006. The Anglican Bishop of Liverpool waschairman of the governors of the predecessorbuilding. He formulated the brief for a newbuilding on the basis that it would be anoutstanding example of sustainable design andtherefore a whole-building teaching aid about theenvironment. The Catholic Archbishop ofLiverpool became a partner in the project, a

symbol of the amicable relationship that marked aradical change from Liverpool’s past (Figure 11.4).

The restricted site presented a challenge tomeet the accommodation requirements withoutdestroying the views of neighbouring properties.The answer was to locate the school hallunderground, resulting in a five-storey building.However, most accommodation is in the two-storey elements above ground (Figure 11.5).Theservices engineers were Buro Happold.

The detailed brief included theserequirements:

• the building should be naturally ventilatedwith heat recovery – this system is 50 per centefficient;

• there should be occupant control rather thanautomated services;

• all classrooms and corridors to feature glassrotating louvres;


Source: Photograph courtesy of CABE

Figure 11.4 St Francis of Assisi school: interior with translucent ethylene tetrafluoroethylene roof


• to maintain air quality, craft and sciencerooms and underground areas like thedining room to be mechanically ventilated;

• in the two information and communicationsrooms and cyber café there is to be centralmechanical cooling;

• a variable refrigerant flow system canoperate in either heating or cooling modes.

Renewable energy

The roof of the two-storey above-groundelement supports 187.3m2 of PVs with a peakcapacity of 24kW and an estimated output of19.440kW/year. It was sized to meet 10 per centof the school’s electricity demand. However,based on the first 6 months of operation it onlymet 3.5 per cent of the demand, which has savedonly approximately 2 per cent of CO2 emissions.A 5m2 array of evacuated tube solar thermalpanels with an output of 2,600kWh/year pre-heats the domestic hot water.

The school was completed before theBREEAM Schools standard was implemented.However, it achieved a provisional rating of‘excellent’.

Howe Dell Primary School, Hatfield,Hertfordshire

A leading example of an eco-school is HoweDell Primary (see Figure 11.6), opened in 2007as the first phase of an educational campus.Located on an unusual brownfield site – theformer Hatfield Aerodrome – the school wasconceived as a pathfinder project for ‘integratedwrap-around care and sustainable buildingdesign’ (DCSF, 2008).

As part of the government’s eco-schoolsstrategy, Howe Dell, designed by CapitaArchitecture, was a beacon project forHertfordshire County Council. As such it wasawarded the ECO Green Flag Accreditation – thehighest award in the eco-schools programme.The super-insulated building includes:

• solar thermal panels to heat water for theschool kitchens;

• a grid-connected photovoltaic array;• natural ventilation coupled with

TermoDeck fan-assisted heating andcooling, exploiting the thermal mass of thebuilding to help stabilize the temperature;


South-facing aeriumbrings passive solargain in winter but risksoverheating in summer

Most classroomsface north

N

Main hall and sports hall aresubmerged below ground level

Years 7 and 8 have gentlersingle-story accommodation

Solar solium

Three/four storey teaching accommodation

Private gardens for years 7 and 8

Two-storey accommodation with

photovoltaics on r roof

Underground halls with outdoor

1

2

3

4

5

Source: Design of Sustainable Schools Case Studies, DfES 2006

Figure 11.5 North–south section of St Francis of Assisi school


• natural lighting from high performance solarprotecting windows, coupled with rooflights in deep plan areas; light wells admitnatural light to ground floor corridors; lowenergy artificial lighting is used throughout;

• sedum green roofs help with insulationwhilst managing water runoff;

• the toilets are supplied with rainwaterharvested from the main roof, and the excessused to irrigate the wetland biodiversity areawithin the school grounds.

In addition, a 50kW wind turbine is planned,which will export excess electricity to the grid.The outstanding and unique sustainabilityfeature of the school is its system ofinterseasonal heat transfer (IHT) installed byICAX. Solar energy is captured by a network ofpipes beneath the surface of the playground thatare filled with water and anti-freeze – called the‘collector’. The tarmac of the playground canoften reach 15°C above ambient temperature(Figure 11.7).


Figure 11.6 Howe Dell Primary School, southern elevation

Source: DCSF, 2008

Figure 11.7 Pipe network beneath the school playground


Heat energy is stored in computer-controlled‘thermal banks’ beneath the school (Figure 11.8).When it is needed to heat the building, it isdelivered to a heat pump and a series of heatexchangers. These are connected to both theunderfloor heating system and the TermoDeckventilation system that can deliver either warmor cool air, using the thermal mass of thebuilding to moderate extremes of temperature.This is claimed to be the first system of its typein the UK and possibly even the world. It saves50 per cent of the CO2 emissions attributable toconventional boilers.

A further advantage of the thermal banks isthat they can store heat from the solar thermalpanels during the summer holidays whennormal services are suspended. Otherwise thepanels would suffer damage.

The school curriculum is underpinned bysustainability principles and an importantelement in the design of the building is that auser-friendly school-wide software interface

allows pupils to monitor the variousenvironmental systems, in particular therenewable energy. It indicates how much energyis stored as heat and how much electricity isexported to the grid. Real-time data are alsodisplayed on screens within the school entrancearea.

Fulcrum Consulting played a central role indeveloping the sustainable features of the school,particularly the IHT heating/cooling system.They consider this to be ‘a demonstrationproject assisting in placing ideas in the publicdomain’.

Sharrow Combined Infant and JuniorSchool, Sheffield

It is worth recording that local authorities cannot only commission schools but they can stillalso design them, as in the case of SharrowSchool in Sheffield (Figure 11.9).


Source: Courtesy of Mark Hughes, ICAX

Figure 11.8 Thermal banks beneath the school


The Sharrow School resulted from a decision bythe Sheffield City Council to amalgamate juniorand infant provision on the same site to replacea nearby Victorian building. The aim of theCouncil’s architect, Cath Baslio, was to producethe greenest school in Sheffield. A lengthyconsultation process involving staff, governors,parents and council staff led to an open plandesign with no corridors.A green roof not onlycontrols rainwater runoff but also replicates ameadow, making it a valuable teaching resource.It is designed to attract a range of wildlife,especially birds. The school is linked to asubstantial open green space that is primarily forthe use of pupils but is also available to thecommunity after school hours. The landscapedesigner was Helen Mitchell.

However, what makes the school special isthe fact that hot water for all purposes comesfrom ground source heat pumps linked to 21boreholes. These supply low grade heat tounderfloor circuits of 20mm high densitypolyethylene piping over three floors that canprovide space heating at a lower temperature

than radiators. In total 11km of pipe was used.There is ‘token’ backup from an immersionheater to cover extra-heavy demand.

The school is designed to facilitate groupworking by teachers and pupils from differentyear groups to learn from each other.Altogetherthe school is a valuable community resource atthe heart of one of the more deprived areas ofSheffield.

Summary of indicators forsustainable designTo accommodate the potential future changes inclimate, as far as possible, sustainable communitybuildings should be designed to:

• reduce to zero, or compensate for, the use offossil-based energy in terms of the energyembodied in the materials, transport and theconstruction process and the energy usedduring the lifetime of the building;

• provide, at the same time, sufficient thermalmass to enable the building to moderate


Figure 11.9 Sharrow Combined Infant and Junior School, Sheffield


extremes of external temperature,with nightcooling;

• use recycled and recyclable materials whereavailable and obtain natural materials fromaccredited sustainable sources;

• ensure that the proposed development willbe designed to facilitate dismantling andrecycling in the future;

• avoid the use of materials containing volatileorganic compounds;

• design to make maximum use of naturallight whilst also mitigating solar glare;

• exploit the potential for natural ventilationin the context of an overall climate controlstrategy that minimizes energy use toachieve a climate within the range ofcomfort conditions;

• make the best use of passive solar energywhilst employing heating/cooling systemsthat are fine-tuned to the needs of theoccupants, avoiding air conditioning exceptin special circumstances;

• ensure that building management systemsare user-friendly and not over-complex andthat the system has an explanatory manualthat can be understood by the building’soccupants as well as services managers;

• exploit to the full opportunities to generateintegrated or onsite renewable electricity;

• identify the potential for exploiting theconstant ground temperature to even outthe peaks and troughs of summer and wintertemperatures by means of GSHPs or directunderground or flowing water cooling;

• minimize the use of water; harvestingrainwater and grey water and purifying foruse other than human consumption;

• minimize rainwater runoff by limiting theextent of hard external landscape and, ifpossible, create runoff underground storageand subsequent drainage in the event of flashflooding;

• create an external environmental that is botha visual amenity and also offers environmentalbenefits such as summer shading fromdeciduous trees and evaporative cooling fromwater features;

• whilst taking account of these keyindicators, ensure that designs meet thehighest standards of technical proficiency incombination with aesthetic excellence.

Chapters 10 and 11 have illustrated that there areleading edge non-domestic buildings alreadyapproaching the optimum in terms of carbonsavings, climate control and the ecologicalapproach to materials in terms of toxicity andsourcing.The purpose here is to suggest that anincreasingly aggressive climate will involve arecalibration of some design standards. Forexample, for structures,wind loading calculationsmay have to assume storms in excess of 140mphwith considerable turbulence. For relatively longlife buildings like schools, universities,government offices, etc., cooling and ventilationsystems should be designed to cope with 45°Cextended summer days and 35°C nights.Buildings will need to have a significant thermalmass and there may also be a requirement formechanical intervention to moderatetemperatures and realize night cooling.

Finally, almost all the buildings featured inChapters 10 and 11 are bespoke, that is, designedfor a specific user. Most offices are builtspeculatively with the future occupier bearingthe energy costs. The only way that theconstruction and environmental standardsdiscussed here will be achieved is by buildingregulations requiring them. At the same timethere must be enforced standards for buildingcontrol during construction together withrigorous post occupancy checks.Local authoritieswill claim they need additional funding for suchmeasures, and they will be right.



Demand versus reservesversus global warmingUltimately the prospect of a survivable futurehinges on energy and how rapidly societies shiftfrom fossil fuel dependence to near carbonneutral energy.The case for renewable energy isbeing strengthened by increasing anxiety over thealleged gap between new discoveries of reservesof fossil fuels and rising demand, especially fromChina and India. Rapid economic growth in thedeveloping world means that predicted energydemand under the high emissions CO2 scenariois outpacing gains in energy efficiency and couldreach over three times the current level ofprimary energy demand by the end of thecentury (Figures 12.1 and 12.2).

To be precise, energy consumption in 1980was equivalent to 7,223 million tonnes of oilequivalent (mtoe). By 2030 it is expected toreach 17,014 mtoe, due mainly to economicgrowth in India and China.

A schizoid tendency is evident here sinceboth the World Energy Council (WEC) graphand the International Energy Agency (IEA)histogram seem to deny the existence of anothergraph known as the Hubbert Peak. The bellcurve shown in Figure 12.3 was conceived in1956 by Marion King Hubbert, andsubsequently named after him, to describe thepath of the relationship between reserves of oiland increasing demand.

There is considerable uncertainty regardinglevels of reserves of oil especially byOrganization of Oil Exporting Countries(OPEC).The Association for the Study of Peak

Oil (ASPO) considers that ‘peak oil’ was reachedin 2006 with peak gas expected about a decadelater. The consequence will be prices volatilityand ultimately conflict. ‘Climate change andsoaring energy demand are combining to createa “perfect storm” during the next half century’(Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the USFederal Reserve) (Figures 12.4 and 12.5).

The reason for the uncertainty surroundingthe matter of reserves of oil is that, in 1986,OPEC decreed that its members should onlyexport oil in a fixed proportion of their reserves.Within weeks many countries revised theirreserves upwards, for example Saudi Arabiaadded 100 billion barrels to their reserves.Altogether the total suddenly rose from 353billion to 643 billion barrels of oil, yet there hadbeen no significant discoveries of new reserves. Itis virtually certain that reserves are still beingexaggerated (Coleman, 2007, p53).

Interviewed for the Guardian, the chiefeconomist of the International Energy Agency,renowned for its caution, concludes that ‘In termsof non-Opec, we are expecting that in three tofour years time, the production of conventional oilwill come to a plateau and start to decline… Interms of the global picture, assuming that Opecwill invest in a timely manner, global conventionaloil … will come around 2020 to a plateau as well’(interview for the Guardian, 14 April 2009).

A report by Robert Hirsch for the USDepartment of Energy estimates that, to avoideconomic collapse, it will be necessary to initiate‘a mitigation crash programme 20 years beforepeaking’. He adds: ‘Without timely mitigationthe economic, social and political costs will be

12

Conventional Energy


Conventional Energy 119

50

40

30

20

10

0

Gigatonnesof oilequivalent(Gtoe)

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Figure 12.1 World Energy Council worst case Business as Usual scenario

Mto

e

01971

1%

2%

3%

3%

5%

11%

11%

12%

10%

5%

3%

4%5%

4%

5%

11%

9%

4%3%4%

4,999

2000

9,179

2010

11,132

2020

13,167

2030

15,267

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Middle EastAfrica

Latin America

Asia(excluding China)

China

Former USSR etc.,

OECD

(including Japan

and South Korea)69%

59%

LA

LAAFME

AS

AS

AS

AS

AS

C

C

C

C

C

55% 51% 47%

10%

14%

13%

6%

5%

5%

11%

13%

12%

18%

LAAFME

LA

AFME

LA

AF

ME

FUe

FUe

FUeFUe

FUe

OECD

OECD

OECD OECD

OECD

Middle East

Africa

Latin America

Asia (excluding China)

China

Former USSR etc.,

OECD

(including Japan

and South Korea)

ME

AF

LA

AS

C

FUe

OECD

Source: International Energy Agency/World Energy

Figure 12.2 World Energy Outlook



unprecedented.’ There are no signs of a crashprogramme, which should already be well underway.

It is no wonder that John Hutton, as UKSecretary of State for Business and Enterprise,has warned: ‘The subject of energy security islikely to be one of the most important politicaland economic challenges we face as a country’(speech at a UK Trade and Investment conference,December 2007).

Alongside concerns about climate change, itis therefore imperative that nations rapidly installtechnologies that are an alternative to fossil fuels.For the UK the urgency is even greater as over30 per cent of its generating capacity willbecome obsolete within the next decade and ahalf.And confusion reigns over the prospects fornext generation of nuclear power when even theproblem of medium and high level wastedisposal from existing plants has not been

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

01850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

Proven reserves250x109 bbls

Cumulativeproduction90x109 bbls

Pro

duc

tion

(109

bill

ion

bar

rels

/yr)

Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

Figure 12.3 The Hubbert peak

75

50

Milli

on b

arre

ls p

er d

ay

25

01925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Conventional Oil Gas

Figure 12.4 Peak oil and gas: after ASPO



resolved. There is also the deadly legacy ofplutonium waste from the weapons programme.

Conflict over oil reserves will increase. AlanGreenspan has described Iraq as the first of themajor oil wars. These could become morewidespread as the reserves-to-demand ratiomoves down the bell curve (Figure 12.6).

In addition, peak gas and peak coal reservesare expected around 2025 as will be discussed inChapter 13.

The UK’s chief scientist, Professor JohnBeddington, predicted that energy, food andwater shortages by 2030 would create a ‘perfectstorm’ echoing the verdict of Alan Greenspan(address to the government’s SustainableDevelopment UK conference,London,20 March2009).

As anxieties about the status of reserves of oiland gas gather pace, the fall-back position ofresorting to coal is becoming increasingly

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Figure 12.5 Peak oil, breakdown by nation

Figure 12.6 Potential for oil wars

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attractive to governments. For rapidly expandingeconomies like China and India, exploiting theirreserves of coal is irresistibly tempting. China iscommissioning new coal fired plants at a rate ofabout 50 per year. Even the UK is planning anew generation of coal fired plants. All this isdespite the fact that the technical and costproblems surrounding carbon capture andstorage (CCS) are far from having been resolved.Possibly hundreds of new plants will be inoperation before CCS is viable, and most ofthem will not be amenable to CCS retrofit.Thiswill be discussed in the next chapter.

Therapy for an ailing planet:the Tyndall remedyThe only answer according to the Tyndall Centreis for fossil-based energy to be abandoned longbefore reserves are exhausted if the world is to avoidcatastrophic climate change. The Centre spellsout why: ‘The only scenario that avoidsdangerous climate change over the long term isthe minimum emissions scenario, which allowsfor only about one quarter of known fossil fuelsto be used’ (about 1000Gt Carbon equivalent,out of a total of 4–5000GtC). In other wordsthree-quarters of it must stay in the ground(Figure 12.7).

For the UK the Tyndall Centre has specificrecommendations. Because the UK has high percapita carbon emissions at 9.6 tonnes per head, the

instruction is that we should achieve ‘deep cuts inthe use of fossil fuels.This translates to a 90 per centcut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 if there isto be any chance of avoiding irreversible climatechange (Lenton et al, 2006).To achieve this target,emissions of CO2 must be stabilized by 2012.Beyond 2010 there should be a 9 per cent annualcut for 20 years leading to a 70 per cent reductionby 2030 and 90 per cent by 2050 (Figure 12.8).

This is substantially greater than UKgovernment commitment under the ClimateChange Bill and the reason for this is that it failsto take account of emissions associated with airtransport and shipping. It has huge implicationsfor clean energy (Figure 12.9).

So, could some relief be found from a newgeneration of nuclear generating plants?

The nuclear optionThere are 440 existing plants with a further 168planned so far. With the prospect of aproliferation of nuclear power generation, anydecision about proceeding with a newgeneration of nuclear plants should first considera number of popular myths:

1 Nuclear is carbon neutral.This ignores the CO2

component in the:• construction of power plants;• mining, milling and enrichment of

uranium;

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• transport of fuels and waste;• disposal of waste in long-term security;• decommissioning of plants and safe

disposal of remains;• development of new mines and

rehabilitation when exhausted.2 Nuclear is cheap. A fourth generation nuclear

plant would cost up to £1.7 million per MW.With an installed capacity of ~1300MW thisamounts to £22.1 million. In addition there isthe cost of mining uranium ore,waste disposaland decommissioning. By comparison, a

combined cycle gas generation plant costs£350.000/MW.

3 There will be no taxpayer subsidy. ‘Thegovernment will not provide subsidies,directly or indirectly to encourage Britain’senergy companies to invest in new nuclearpower stations’ (Malcolm Wicks as EnergyMinister October 2006). This includes the£70 billion estimate for waste disposal.Theanswer is to give the contract to the Frenchcompany EDF, which will, by definition,qualify for a subsidy.

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For politicians, the fundamental question of thelimitation of reserves of high grade uranium isresolved by the prospect of reprocessing spentnuclear fuel to create plutonium that can bereused several times over. This is despite theembarrassment of the Thorpe reprocessingenterprise.

The main concern here is that separatedplutonium is only mildly radioactive. This meansthat a small amount could easily be handled illicitlyand a only a few kilograms would be needed tomake a nuclear weapon.This danger came to lightafter the US shared reprocessing technology withIndia who then used the separated plutonium tomake an atomic bomb. In 1998, the Royal Societywarned that the plutonium stockpile fromreprocessing spent fuel ‘might, at some stage, beaccessed for illicit weapons production’. In 2007 asecond report repeated that ‘the status quo ofcontinuing to stockpile a very dangerous materialis not an acceptable long term option’ (vonHippel, 2008, p70).

Worldwide, 440 nuclear power plantsaccount for 14 per cent of global energy use atthe time of writing. As the international energysituation becomes increasingly fraught, politiciansare reconsidering their position regarding nuclearenergy. For example, India is planning to install470GW of nuclear capacity by 2050. China isplanning for 80GW by 2020. The UK couldstand proxy for the nuclear Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development(OECD) countries in this respect. The note ofalarm is reaching an ever higher pitch among UKpoliticians as they realize that the country reallydoes face an energy crisis during the next decade.This is because of the inevitability that the outputfrom nuclear power stations will fall from around23 per cent of the total to about 7 per cent by2020 as old plants are decommissioned. In fact itwill be nearer 5 per cent if predictions about thegrowth in energy demand are correct. Thequestion is, what will bridge the gap?

In the Energy White Paper of 2002 there wasconfidence that renewables would go a long wayto meeting the shortfall. Most of the bets wereplaced on wind power. A decision on nuclearpower was placed on hold. There would be aconcentration on wind power up to 2020.However, since then it has become increasingly

obvious that a focus on wind alone will guaranteethat the vacuum will not be filled, especially if weconsider that energy demand will have risen onthe basis of a net 1 per cent per year growth from9.87EJ in 2002 to 11.8EJ in 2020.

One option would be to resort to fossil fuels.An increase in gas generation would be anobvious stratagem, but this commodity is notonly becoming more expensive, it would alsoblow a hole in the government’s commitment toreduce CO2 emissions by 10 per cent by 2010with a target of 20 per cent by 2020.At the timeof writing both goals seem to be receding.Therecould be a resurrection of coal generation butthis would be difficult as large scale generatingplants like Drax in Yorkshire are in terminaldecline. And again, the climate changecommitment would be undermined.

For these reasons amongst others, more andmore politicians are becoming reconciled to thefact that a new generation of nuclear plants is theonly way to fill the generating gap withoutreneging on CO2 abatement commitments. Butthis opens a new Pandora’s box of problems. Firstthere are the logistics of initiating a programmeof new stations. There is a general acceptancethat the critical mass of stations to make aprogramme viable in terms of economy of scaleis ten, which would certainly fill the energy voidleft by the demise of all present generationplants. Is this feasible?

According to Professor Tom Burke of ImperialCollege, a former adviser to the one-timeDepartment of Energy, even if work were startedimmediately (June 2005), a plant would not beoperational before 2015. It would take an optimistto believe that three plants would be operationalby 2025. In fact, when account is taken of thelicensing and planning process and the business ofputting together a financial package, the timescaleis considerably extended. Then there is theconstruction phase, which can be up to 10 years.Next there is the question of cost. Gone is theoptimism that once stated that ‘nuclear electricitywould be too cheap to meter’. Now the estimateis that a plant would cost between £1.3 millionand £1.7 million per Megawatt installed capacity.The capacity of each plant would be between1200 and 1500MW. Gas plants, by comparison,cost around £350,000 per MW capacity.



The government will have a hard jobpersuading the market to invest in capitalintensive projects carrying a number of riskswithin a liberalized and therefore uncertainenergy market.The risks include:

• open-ended lead-in time including licensingand planning consents;

• public opposition; there is still a hard core ofcommitted opponents who will galvanizepublic opposition;

• security risks in an environment ofincreasingly sophisticated terroristoperations;

• the chance of fissile material falling into thehands of rogue states;

• safe long-term waste disposal including thewaste from existing generation plants;

• the reluctance of lending institutions toprovide capital for high risk, long-life, capitalintensive projects;

• the track record of the nuclear industry in itsconcealment of accidents;

• insecurity regarding return on capital unlessthe government guarantees a 40 year feed-intariff, which is against the principles of aliberalized EU market.

On the last point one banking adviser has stated:‘You need some kind of government orregulatory commitment to force people tocontract to buy nuclear power.You would haveto be careful to make it apply to all suppliers sonone are disadvantaged and all share the samerisk’ (Observer, ‘Business Focus: the EnergyDebate’, 8 May 2005, p3).The verdict on this byTom Burke is: ‘The argument that thegovernment makes people sign a forty yearcontract to take nuclear power and then agreesto take back the liabilities and uses public moneyto do it is ludicrous’ (Observer, ibid).

An additional problem relates to the skillsbase necessary to create a new generation ofnuclear plants.Currently there are shortages at alllevels: scientists, engineers, technicians,craftspeople and manual workers. Graduates donot perceive the industry as a good careerchoice. Nor are there people with the skillsnecessary to administer regulatory and licensing

procedures. This is highlighted by the fact thatthe Health and Safety Executive’s presentcapacity to examine new technologies is one-tenth of a person per year according to theInstitute of Physics.

Emissions and waste

Nuclear plants do not emit CO2, SO2 or NOx

gases. Radioactive discharges are claimed to benegligible and not significantly abovebackground levels of natural radiation. Theproblem of high and intermediate level wastedisposal has still not been solved.The stumblingblock appears to be the requirement that itshould be recoverable for reprocessing. Thiswould seem to be an impossible condition thatultimately must be abandoned. When thathappens a promising solution that has beenresearched at Sheffield University Institute ofMines should be considered.

Up to the time of writing there have beennumerous problems arising from attempts tobury high and intermediate level waste, not leastthe ill-fated attempts by Nirex to bury the waste near Sellafield. Fergus G. F. Gibb and PhilipG. Attrill have conducted a series of highpressure, high temperature experiments toaddress these problems.They have demonstratedthat deep boreholes in the continental granitecrust could provide the answer. High level wastein special containers is placed at the base of4–5km deep boreholes, sunk into the granite.Radioactive decay gradually heats up the wasteto a temperature sufficient to cause the granite tomelt.As the heat dissipates the granite cools andrecrystallizes, sealing the waste in solid granite.Any fissures in the surrounding rocks are sealedby annealing and low temperature hydrationmineralization. The timescale suggests themelting and recrystallizing can be realized in amatter of years rather than decades.This systemhas the potential to satisfy the safetyrequirements under the 100,000 year rule.

If nuclear power is to be politically viable, itis this kind of technology that provides somedegree of assurance, provided that every othercarbon neutral source of energy is fully


exploited. If there is to be a new generations ofnuclear power plants, it is essential that it doesnot divert funds from optimizing renewables.

Health issues

In June 2005 the Committee on Medical Aspectsof Radiation in the Environment (Comare)published a report that was the outcome of astudy begun in 1993.The committee considered21 sites comprising 13 power stations and 15other nuclear installations. It confirmed earlierreports that there were clusters of excessleukaemias and non-Hodgkins lymphomas nearthe reprocessing plants of Sellafield andDounreay and the atomic weapons facility atBurghfield.There was also a slight increase abovethe norm of childhood cancers aroundAldermaston, Burghfield and Harwell.

However, the committee could not be certainas to the cause. There were high numbers ofleukaemias around Sellafield according to theBlack report of 1984. These could have beenlinked to the high number of radioactivedischarges from the site in the 1960s and 1970s,which were 200,000 times greater than Aldeburghand Burghfield combined. On the other hand theclusters could have been the result of the influx ofa migrant workforce and the transfer of newviruses involved in the development of cancer.

On balance the committee concluded thatnuclear power stations were not responsible forchildhood cancers in Britain. However, thereport will not necessarily allay the fears of theanti-nuclear lobby, fears that may have beenreinforced by a report by the InternationalAgency for Research on Cancer – an arm of theWorld Health Organization. In June 2005 itreported on a study of 400,000 nuclear powerworkers, which concluded that the long-termlow doses of radiation they received increasedtheir risk of cancer. The current standards forassessing the risks from radiation are based onstudies of survivors of the atomic bombs onNagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945, victims whowere subjected to a sudden high level exposureto radiation.This report is the first to comment

on the risk associated with long-term exposureto low level radiation. However, the report doesmake the point that the risk is reduced, althoughnot eliminated, for present day operatives innuclear installations.

Advocates

In a UK TV documentary, James Lovelock,originator of the Gaia theory, asserted that ‘itwould be fine if we had another 50 to 100 years,but we don’t have time.And the only energy thatI know of that is immediately, or nearlyimmediately available and could provide largeamounts of energy quickly without doinganything to the greenhouse is nuclear.’ He then admitted that accidents will happen but‘people have got to realize that [they] will be trivial compared with the dangers of theglobal greenhouse’ (Channel Four, 8 January2004). Lovelock cannot be dismissed lightly.

The Nuclear Industry Association (NIA),which represents about 200 companies, claimsthat nuclear can be an attractive proposition forprivate investment provided that risk can beappropriately managed. That must meaninvolving a third party.

Technology

The international energy uncertainty is fuellinginterest in third generation (IIIG+) nuclearplants.These will be of modular design, reducingthe construction time.They will produce muchless waste than present day reactors and willincorporate passive safety systems.They are likelyto use new materials and possibly contain sealed-for-life elements.They will be much cheaper andmore rapidly constructed, using many factorybuilt components.

The only IIIG+ nuclear plant presently underconstruction in the EU is the Olkilouto 1.6MWplant in Finland. This is a European PressurisedReactor also called an Evolutionary PowerReactor (EPR). Pressurized water in the primarysystem is used to slow down the neutrons,




allowing a nuclear reaction to take place in thecore. It has four steam generators or heatexchangers to transfer the heat generated duringthe reaction to power turbines (Figure 12.10).

The shell of the building is designed to beproof against aircraft impact; one of several newsafety features.The EPR system was selected onthe grounds of its specification, economic costand estimated 60-year service life. It should havea lower environmental impact than existingplants, first because it uses 15 per cent lessuranium than its predecessors and, second,because of the lower level of waste produced.The project, managed by the French groupAreva, has been subject to a number of setbacksresulting in a delay of three years. The latestcompletion date is 2010.

Energy companies EDF and E.ON haveselected the EPR system for the UK’s nuclearprogramme, should it materialize.To acceleratethe planning process, wherever possible newplants will be built on the site of previousreactors, making use of existing infrastructure.

A second major contender for the IIIG+market is the Westinghouse Advanced PassiveSeries, which includes the AP1000 advanced

reactor. This is a development from currenttechnologies. Around 50 per cent of the 440nuclear reactors in the world are based onWestinghouse technology. The AP1000 is apressurized water reactor (PWR) with a capacityof 1154MW. Its modular construction will allowmany construction activities to take place inparallel. The estimated construction time is 36 months. The design has been greatlysimplified compared with the Magnox and AGRplants, which are in the process of beingdecommissioned. Waste production would begreatly reduced. It is claimed that a 40-yearprogramme of replacing the existing UK nuclearoutput with the AP1000 would only add 10 per cent to the existing waste accumulation.Decommissioning would be simpler andcheaper, involving less irradiated material thanwith existing plants (Figure 12.11).

Developing nations

It is widely recognized that the developing worldwill experience rapid growth in energy demand,once the current recession is over. This has led

Source: Courtesy of Areva

Figure 12.10 Diagram of the EPR reactor building

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the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP)to identify as a priority the development anddemonstration of small to medium sized reactors(SMRs) that can be globally deployed withoutadding to the risk of nuclear proliferation. Lead-cooled systems are the favourite technology.

In 2004 the US Department of Energybegan the development of a ‘small, sealedtransportable, autonomous reactor’ (SSTAR). Inthis device the nuclear fuel, liquid lead coolantand steam generator are sealed within a securecasing. Steam pipes would be connected to aturbine generator. Security was the majorconcern and monitors will shut down thereactor if faults occur or tampering is detected.Awarning will be sent via secure radio channels tothe monitoring agency. The reactor would beexpected to generate power for 30 years, afterwhich it would be returned to the supplier to bedisposed of or recharged. An advantage of thissystem is that it is modular and can providepower in increments from 10 to 700MW. Inaddition, its size allows the unit to be located

close to areas of demand. A 100MW versionwould be 15m tall and 3m in diameter andwould weigh around 500 tonnes. The smallerversion would weigh about 200 tonnes. This isthe US Generation IV lead-cooled fast reactorsystem, and it looks capable of reaching placeswhere other reactors are not viable.

Uranium

Nuclear power is widely perceived as beingpotentially limitless. Its primary fuel is uranium.Anestimate by the World Energy Council in 1993gave uranium reserves a lifetime of 41 years. From2009 that is until about 2035–40. However,renewed interest in nuclear generation, especiallyfrom major nations like China, India and Russia,may put even this date in doubt.The reprocessingof spent fuel is the only long-term hope, although,to repeat, efforts in this direction in the UK have,so far,been a failure.Consider these two cautionaryquotes: ‘There are almost certainly no major new

Source: Westinghouse

Figure 12.11 Efficiency savings in the Westinghouse AP1000

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discoveries [of uranium] ahead’ (Council ofGerman Industry UK) and ‘As uranium hoardingbegins, a major shortage could arise sooner than2013’ (Michael Meacher, former UK environmentminister). Two thousand scientists in India areworking on a system to combine plutonium wastewith thorium to breed stockpiles of uranium(Guardian, 30 September 2009, p22).

Finally, one of the problems with nuclearpower is that it is inflexible. Modifying output tomatch short-term demand is not an option.However, as the prospect of the hydrogeneconomy looms larger, the power output duringdemand troughs could be directed to theelectrolysis production of this gas.This could bean increasingly valuable income stream astransport embraces fuel cell technology.Electricity storage in Vanadium Flow Batteriesmay also come into prominence.

Nuclear fusion

Nuclear fusion is a process whereby a massivequality of energy is released. The world firstexperienced uncontrolled fusion with thehydrogen bomb developed at the end of theSecond World War. Since then the aim has beento achieve controlled fusion for the productionof electricity.

The principle is that all nuclei have a positivecharge due to their protons. Identical (or like)

charges repel and the aim of fusion is toovercome this electromagnetic repulsion andallow the two nuclei to get close enough for theattractive nuclear force to be sufficiently strong toachieve fusion.The fusion of lighter nuclei createsa single heavier nucleus plus a free neutron,releasing more energy than is needed to effect thefusion. This can be achieved by accelerating thenuclei to extremely high speeds in a tokamak-type (doughnut shaped) reactor and heating themto thermonuclear temperatures in the process.

The attraction of nuclear fusion is that,theoretically, it delivers ten times more fusionenergy than the heat energy needed to force thenuclei to fuse together: an exothermic processthat can produce a self-sustaining reaction.Break-even, or self-sustaining, controlled fusionreactions have been achieved briefly in a fewtokamak-type reactors around the world.

Some of the most advanced fusion research isbeing conducted at the UK Rutherford AppletonLaboratories at Didcot near Oxford, known asthe HiPER project. This European High PowerLaser Energy Research facility is designed todemonstrate the feasibility of laser-driven fusion.It will use seawater as its principle source of fueland will not produce any long-life radioactivewaste. Demonstration of proof of the principle isexpected between 2010 and 2012 as part of acontinuous international programme.Then it willbe a matter of moving from the scientific proof ofprinciple to a commercial reactor (Figure 12.12).

Source: Courtesy of Rutherford Appleton Laboratory

Figure 12.12 Graphic of the HiPER facility at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory.



Fusion used to be 50 years away. Perhaps that cannow be reduced to 30 years, just in time toreplace third generation nuclear fission reactors.Whether any country apart from the richestindustrialized nations will be able to afford it isan open question.

Whatever the ultimate decisions concerningnext generation nuclear plants, the responsibilityfor supplying the bulk of energy needs in thelatter half of the 21st century will fall onrenewables. The energy resource waiting to bemore widely exploited is the sun, which radiatesan average of about 288 Watts per square metreonto the Earth’s surface. The challenge lies incapturing as much as possible of that energy tokeep the wheels turning and eliminate poverty.

The dilemma of sustainabledevelopmentThis brings us to another conflict of aspirations.The aim of the UK government is for economicgrowth of 2–3 per cent per year, but under thecloak of ‘sustainable development’. This wouldmean that the economy of the UK woulddouble in strength in 23 years. ‘Each successivedoubling period consumes as much resource asall the previous doubling periods combined’(Professor Rod Smith of Imperial College in anaddress to the Royal Academy of Engineering,May 2007). Clearly ‘sustainable development’ is aphrase capable of a range of interpretations, so itis time for a definition that acknowledges thereal world of climate change and fossil fueldepletion.

The only way that sustainable developmentwill be viable in the present context is if itincludes a radical reduction in the demand forprimary energy to a level that can be provided bynear carbon neutral energy technologies.

Sustainable economic development ispossible by virtue of the immense opportunitiesinherent in the transition to a post fossil fueleconomy.The challenge for science and industryis to create conditions that will enable the UK toremain economically secure, even if all aroundare falling apart. ‘Sustainable development’involves being decoupled from the raw pursuit

of wealth (which is now stigmatized in any case)and directed to the task of keeping the lights on,wheels turning and food on the shelves in aworld where all old certainties will havecrumbled.The relentless pursuit of wealth couldhave even more cataclysmic consequences.

Threats from space

In previous books (Smith, 2005, 2007), I havediscussed the merits of distributed electricitygeneration by means of mini-grids, which, ingovernment parlance, is called ‘islanding’. One ofthe benefits of such a grid system is that it wouldbe much better at accommodating small-scalerenewable technologies in the kilowatt rangerather than the national grid dedicated tomegawatt-scale generation. At the same time itwould protect against catastrophic collapse in theevent of a local failure of one of the componentsof a national grid. Now another argument hascome to light supporting the case for changingto distributed generation via mini-grids that caneither be networked or act independently. It iscontained in a report issued by the US NationalAcademy of Science (NAS).

The central theme of the report is that theworld is getting perilously close to possibledisaster, but this time from outer space. Thereason for this verdict is that Western society hasbecome increasingly reliant on technology for itssmooth running, and, as such, it has ‘sown theseeds of its own destruction’, according to thereport. Is this an extravagant claim? The answerlies in space.

The Aurora Borealis is a renowned spectacleseen mainly in northern latitudes, but it has asinister side that can be lethal. This can beapparent when the sun ejects plasma-chargedparticles carried by solar winds that containbillion-tonne fireballs of plasma called a ‘coronalmass ejection’. This penetration of plasma intoour atmosphere clashes with the Earth’smagnetic field causing it to undergo change.Why this matters is because the rapid economicgrowth in the West and now in the East hascaused a significant increase in the demand forelectricity that, in turn, has caused the grids to



handle higher voltages over ever larger distances.For example, China is installing a 1000 kilovoltgrid – twice the voltage of the US’.These high-power grids act as antennae, or channels for amassive transfer of direct current (DC) fromspace into electricity grids not designed eitherfor DC or the sudden increase in load.

The result is that an enormous DC istransmitted to local power transformers that aredesigned to convert power from its transport voltageto domestic level voltage. As a consequence thecopper wires in the transformers soon melt,producing a cascade of power failures.The steadyglobal rise in the demand for electricity isincreasing the potential for such failures. TheChair of the NAS committee that produced thisreport has stated: ‘We’re moving closer and closerto the edge of a possible disaster’; According toJohn Kallenham,1 an adviser to NAS, the scalecould be global: ‘A really large storm could be aplanetary disaster’.

The NAS report warns that a ‘severe weatherevent’ could induce ground currents that woulddisable 300 key transformers in the US in lessthan two minutes.As a result, 130 million peoplewould be without power. The knock-on effectwould be a crash of almost all life-supportsystems including health care, water supplies, fueland food distribution, heating and cooling. NASestimates that it would take between four andten years to recover from such an event.

A dedicated satellite can provide, at best, a 15minute warning of incoming geomagneticstorms. However, a coronal mass ejection arrivesfaster that the time it takes for a satellite messageto reach the Earth. The only guaranteedsafeguard is a massive reconfiguration ofelectricity distribution by means of local, semi-independent grids that can support small-scaleand intermittent generation and which can havefail-safe connections with the wider gridnetwork, automatically severing the link as soonas an anomaly in the current is detected (datafrom Brooks, 2009).

This is another case of a win–win situationfor the green lobby, except that, in this case, it is‘win–win–win’. Small scale generation to a

system of mini-grids offers the following threebenefits:

• distributed generation accommodating therange of renewables technologies is theroute to drastic CO2 emissions abatement;

• energy security in the face of declining fossilfuel reserves;

• protection against apocalyptic plasmainvasions.

To restate the Nicholas Stern injunction, in thistime of need it is more urgent than ever to takerapid precautionary action. After the event, thecost of remediation, according to the NAS, couldbe as much as $125 billion, and that is just for theUS.

Considering the big picture, we haveprobably already lost Round One in the waragainst climate change. Round Two must befocused on immediate action to buy time in thehope that science will ultimately rise to thechallenge of changing the Earth/atmosphereCO2 balance in favour of humanity.This meansthat massive resources should be directed to:

• adapting to the inevitabilities anduncertainties of an increasingly turbulentclimate, especially in terms of criticalinfrastructures and the built environment;

• addressing the urgent problem of installingultra-low carbon energy systems asdistributed generation for climate reasons,and to replace the diminishing reserves offossil fuels, and to protect againstgeomagnetic storms.

We are probably already committed toirreversible climate change. Adaptation to anultimate extremely hostile environment is amatter of highest priority and must begin now.

Note1 John Kallenham is an analyst with the Metatech

Corporation, California.


In 2006 it was estimated that global recoverablereserves of coal amounted to 905 billion tonnes(gigatonnes) according to the US EnergyInformation Administration 2008. The WorldCoal Institute estimates that this will last 147years at current rates of consumption.Accordingthe Hermann Scheer, environmentalist memberof the German Bundestag, when coal issubstituted for gas and oil, reserves will beexhausted well before 2100 (Scheer, 2002, p100).Since he wrote his book, estimates of reserveshave increased, but so also have the expectationsfor synthetic fuels. The organization WorldEnergy Outlook has compiled a graph of coalreserves by region up to 2100. It suggests thatpeak coal will be reached by 2025. This mayprove optimistic (Figure 13.1).

Coal accounts for 41 per cent of the world’spower supply. Of this total, 250 billion tonnes islocated in the US. Consequently, nearly 50 percent of its power comes from coal. At the sametime India and China are forging ahead withcoal fired generation. China has massive reservesthat are powering its economic developmentwhich continues at 8 per cent per year despite,the world economic downturn. Until recently itwas said to be constructing the equivalent of two500MW coal-fired plants per week, each ofwhich would produce 3 million tons (US) ofCO2 per year. Coal emits twice as much CO2 asnatural gas and globally at the time of writing itaccounts for 37 per cent of all CO2 emissions.According to the International Energy Agency,this is set rise to 43 per cent by 2030, thanksmainly to expanding power generation in Indiaand China.

New coal fired power stations are beingconstructed in the developed and developingworld in the expectation that technology willrender them environmentally benign.Governments are claiming that the future lies inclean technology and that future power stationswill be ‘capture-ready’.

The UK Secretary of State for climatechange, Ed Miliband, asserted in March 2009that nuclear and coal-fired plants were central tothe energy strategy. ‘Coal will remain part of theenergy mix in this country certainly for someyears to come but it needs to be clean coal’(reported in the Guardian, 6 March 2009).

Will it be possible to have ‘clean coal’ or is itjust a cynical oxymoron? There are two mainmethods of converting coal to energy without,allegedly, harming the planet. The first involvesthe use of conventional coal fired steam turbinesbut includes carbon capture and storage (CCS).In the second case, coal is converted to liquidfuels.

In the first category there are three principletypes of CCS:

• Pre-combustion capture. Pulverized coalparticles are mixed with steam, whichproduces hydrogen and CO2.The hydrogenis burnt to generate electricity and the CO2

buried. This system has to be incorporatedinto the design of power plants and istherefore not suitable for CCS retrofitting.

• Post-combustion capture. Coal is burnt in thenormal way and the CO2 produced iscaptured and buried. It involves scrubbingthe exhaust gases from the flue. The appeal

13

Coal: Black Gold or Black Hole?


Coal: Black Gold or Black Hole? 133

of this technology, which is advocated by the UK government, is that it can be retrofitted.

• Oxy-fuel combustion. Coal is burnt in pureoxygen. This produces a high temperaturereaction resulting in few polluting by-products. This is probably the mostexpensive option.

Carbon capture and deep storage have beenpractised for a decade by the Norwegians. Anexhausted gas field below the Sleipner Eastplatform in the North Sea has received a milliontonnes of CO2 each year. Engineers have studiedthe fate of the gas and have concluded that thereis no leakage; it remains trapped in the intersticesof the subterranean sandstone. The longestrunning carbon storage experiment has beendeemed a success by scientists, opening the wayto a much wider exploitation of this storageoption.

The world’s first demonstration coal firedplant with CCS went into production in the

autumn of 2008. It was built next to the1600MW Schwarze Pumpe in north Germany.Its capacity is about 12MW of electricity and30MW of thermal power. The design claims tocapture 100,000 tonnes of CO2 per year by firstcompressing it and then burying it 3000m belowground in the depleted Altmark gas field.This islocated about 200km from the plant. This pilotplant uses an oxy-fuel boiler burning coal in anatmosphere of pure oxygen. The outcome isalmost pure CO2, which can then be buried.

All the components of CCS have been triedand tested; as yet they have not been combinedto create a commercial full-cycle CCS plant.Developing this final stage is likely to be veryexpensive. In the UK, Tim Laidlaw, the chiefexecutive of energy company Centrica, hasstated that full-blown CCS is unlikely to beready to make a significant impact on CO2

emissions before 2030 (Tim Webb in theGuardian, 26 Feb 2009). His reasons are that the geology of the country is not suited to thetechnology and that the technology is costly.

5000

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subbituminousbituminous

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OECD Europe

Worldwide possible coal production

WEO 2006: Reference scenario

Note: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has created a mathematical construct, the World Energy Model, which is designed to replicate how energy markets

function. It is the basis of World Energy Outlook’s annual assessments. WEO 2009 was published in November.

Source: World Energy Outlook.

Figure 13.1 World coal reserves to 2100


The UK government favours post-combustiontechnology since it can be retrofitted to existingpower stations. On the other hand, Centrica hasbeen developing pre-combustion technology,only suitable for new plants. The companyconsiders that there is a risk that post-combustion CCS will never be fitted to the nextgeneration of coal fired power stations, like theplanned Kingsnorth plant, for technical reasonsand also because, in many cases, of the distanceto North Sea aquifers for storage, which will beanother addition to the costs.

There are some vehement critics of thistechnology. The most prominent is JamesHansen who asserts: ‘coal is the single greatestthreat to civilisation and all life on our planet…The dirtiest trick that governments play on theircitizens is the pretence that they are working on“green coal”’ (Hansen, 2009).

The head of science at the British GeologicalSurvey believes that ‘coal is going to be availableas a source of energy for at least another centuryand countries like China, India and Russia haveparticularly rich resources’ (Hansen, 2009).

As oil and gas reserves become exhausted,coal will be the fuel of last resort and there is noguarantee that nations will be willing to bear theextra cost of retrofitting CCS once it becomesviable. Since the technology is still underdevelopment, it will take decades before it iswidely available, by which time many newpower stations will have been built.Consequently billions of tonnes of CO2 willhave been emitted from this source alone,even assuming that widescale retrofit CCS isadopted.

The attitude of the UK is that new coal-firedplants will be designed to be CCS-ready in thehope that it will ultimately be both technicallyefficient and cost-effective. In contradiction ofthis pledge, it is only funding research into post-combustion CCS technology. Retrofit is whatmatters.Alternatively it is leaving it to the US toperfect pre-combustion CCS. Nevertheless, thiscreates the impression that the potential energycrisis over fossil fuel reserves means that coal willbe vital to keep existing plants operationalwhatever the outcome of CCS.

LiquefactionThe second potential destiny for coal is in theprovision of liquid fuels via coal to liquids (CTL)technology. There are two basic approaches toliquefaction: direct and indirect.

Direct liquefaction

One method of direct liquefaction is the Bergiusprocess, which involves breaking down the coalin a solvent at high pressure and temperature.There is then an interaction with hydrogen anda catalyst, which produces a synthetic fuel.

A second direct route to liquefaction wasdeveloped in the 1920s by Lewis Karrick by theprocess of low temperature carbonization. Coalis converted to coke at temperatures between450 and 700°C. The result is the production ofcoal tars that can be processed into fuels.

Indirect liquefaction

The indirect route was developed in 1923 byFranz Fischer and Hans Tropsch.Their syntheticfuel was used extensively by Germany and Japanin the Second World War. It is said to be cheaperthan oil. Production first involves the gasificationof coal to make a syngas that is a balanced,purified mixture of carbon monoxide andhydrogen. Then Fischer–Tropsch catalysts areused to convert the syngas into lighthydrocarbons that can be further processed intopetrol or diesel fuel. In addition, syngas can beconverted into methanol, which can be used as afuel or a fuel additive.

CTL and CO2

Both of these liquefaction processes are far fromcarbon neutral. In fact the conversion processreleases more CO2 than is released in therefinement of oil to petroleum. If petrol anddiesel were to be replaced by coal-basedsynthetic fuels the result would be a considerableincrease in CO2 emissions. Sequestration would



Coal: Black Gold or Black Hole? 135

impose a significant cost penalty. At the sametime it is claimed that, when burnt, this form ofsynthetic fuel produces twice as much CO2 aspetrol (Figure 13.2).

Coal gasAs stated in the Fischer–Tropsch process,generating syngas is a stage in the production ofliquid fuel. It is a fuel that dates from the 19thcentury when it was a by-product of the cokingprocess.Then it was usually called ‘town gas’. Inthe Second World War vehicles were equipped

with huge balloons on their roofs containing gasfor fuel. Coal gas is mainly a mixture of thecalorific gases, hydrogen, carbon monoxide,methane and volatile hydrocarbons. It alsocontains small amounts of carbon dioxide andnitrogen.

Integrated gasification combined cycle(IGCC)

Another developing technology is called‘integrated gasification combined cycle’ (IGCC).In the plant coal is converted to syngas. The

Note: The estimates include emissions from all parts of the process of making the fuels including fossil extraction, feedstock growth and distribution as well as

averaging for the different methods of producing the fuels.

Source: US Environment Protection Agency

Figure 13.2 Estimated increase in greenhouse gases with coal to liquids (CTL)

–91%

Cellulo

sic et

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l

Biodies

el

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etha

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ity

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el

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–68%–56%

Comparing Fuels

With carboncapture and capture andstorage

Without carbon

storage

–47%–41%–29%–23%–22%–20%

–9%

+4% +7% +9%

+119%

Estimated change in greenhouse gasemissions if petroleum fuel were to bereplaced with one of these alternative fuels

The Environmental Protection Agency estimates thatusing liquified coal as a fuel source instead of petroleum could increase greenhouse gas emissions.



carbon is then removed for sequestration, leavingthe remainder as a fuel to power turbines.This isan expensive technology adding up to 65 percent to the cost of electricity. Nevertheless, thereare at least 50 IGCC plants at the planning stageworldwide.

Underground gasification of coal (UGC)

UGC is a process invented in the Soviet Unionin the 1930s, but obviously without carboncapture. In the UGC process the coal remains inthe ground where it is converted to syngas andextracted through a well.The volume of the coalis thereby reduced, allowing the captured carbonto be pumped into the ground. The processinvolves drilling two shafts into a seam of coal.The coal is ignited in one shaft aided bypumping in air or pure oxygen.The amount ofair/oxygen is controlled so that only a part of thecoal is burnt, producing combustible gases. Thesyngas is removed from the second shaft in arelatively raw state. If all the carbon is removed,the residue is pure hydrogen. However, the

process is expensive. A more cost-effectiveoption is to remove half the carbon leaving a fuelthat is reasonably cheap and cleaner than naturalgas. Since the technology avoids both the cost of mining and transporting the coal and the disposal of the CO2, it is significantly cheaper than above ground gasification andsequestration.

The verdictLiquefaction in all its versions will probably donothing to stem the Gadarene rush to 4°C. Asfor CCS, there is perhaps a potential revenueopportunity in forming partnerships withfarmers and market gardeners to enhance cropgrowth. Power companies could be linked topolytunnel fields containing captured CO2

offering a second income stream. There couldalso be an opportunity to boost the growth ofalgae for the production of biodiesel. It will besome time before CCS is technically andcommercially viable. Meanwhile coal firedgeneration continues to expand.


To get things into perspective, it will be useful tostart with a breakdown of the renewables’ shareof global final energy consumption in 2006compared with fossil fuels and nuclear, as shownin Table 14.1.

This highlights the fact that there is stillmuch to do to scale up the contribution fromrenewables. Nevertheless, over the last decade,electricity derived from renewables has almostdoubled (International Energy Agency (IEA).In 2006 they accounted for 433 terawatt-hours(TWh) or 2.3 per cent of the 19,014TWhs of electricity generated worldwide.Theoretically

renewables could meet global needs severaltimes over at 310,600TWh. The breakdown ofthe technical potential of systems in TWh/year is:

Figures for wave and tidal power are notavailable, but in certain countries like the UKand Canada they could be considerable.

Technically it would be possible to meet 100 per cent of world electricity needs fromrenewables. However, if the UK’s total energyneeds to be met by renewables, which excludesnuclear and coal with CCS,huge areas of land andsea would be consumed by any one of the maintechnologies. For example, take biomass: even if75 per cent of the country were to be coveredwith energy crops, this would still not be nearlyenough to meet the energy needs of the nation. Meeting electricity demand fromphotovoltaics would require PV farms coveringan area the size of Wales. However, this assumes asteady state in terms of energy demand.Accordingto the IEA, by 2030 world demand will increaseby six times the capacity of Saudi Arabia.

14

Filling the Gap: Utility-scaleRenewables

Table 14.1 Global energy consumption by source

Source: New Scientist, 11 October 2008, p33.

Geothermal 138,000

Wind 106,000

Solar 43,600

Biomass 23,000

Share of global energy Fuel consumption (%)

Fossil fuels 79

Nuclear 3

Renewables

Traditional biomass 13

Large hydropower 3

Hot water/heating 1.3

Power generation 0.8

Biofuels 0.3

Total 18.4

Source: Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (2008),

Renewables 2007 Global Status Report



Scenarios for renewableenergy resourcesIn 2005 world energy use came to 477 exajoules(1018). The IEA has estimated the growth inenergy demand according to the differenttechnologies, including renewables. One of theproblems in making comparisons betweenprojections is the variety of units employed.The IEA uses tonnes of oil equivalent (toe).To put this into perspective, 5000Mtoe is equivalent to 210 exajoules (Figures 14.1 and 14.2).

Buildings use about 40 per cent of globalenergy and are responsible for approximately thesame percentage of CO2 emissions. Roughly halfof their demand is for direct space heating andhot water and the remainder is associated withthe production of electricity for lighting,space cooling, appliances and office equipment

(Worldwatch Institute, 2009). The theoreticalpotential of renewable energy is ~3000exajoules, according to the UN DevelopmentProgramme (Chapman and Gross, 2001) (Figure 14.3).

According to the IEA, funded by the energycompanies, the share of the world’s primaryenergy drawn from renewables will be around 13 per cent by 2030. However if some of thenational policies that are currently proposed areimplemented, this could rise to 17 per cent with29 per cent of electricity derived fromrenewables.

Rethinking the gridThe UK government is planning for at least33GW of wind power, mostly offshore.According to wind energy expert HughSharman, experience from Denmark and

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Source: Courtesy of IEA

Figure 14.1 Energy consumption projections to 2020 by fuel


Filling the Gap: Utility-scale Renewables 139

Source: Courtesy of IEA

Figure 14.3 World energy use in 2005 and annual renewables potential with current technologies

50

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toe)

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Figure 14.2 World Energy Council forecast of global primary energy use to 2100

2000

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50<1

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Source: UNDP, Johansson et al., IEA


Germany indicates that this country will find itimpractical to manage much more than 10GWwithout major changes to the system. Heconcludes that ‘while wind power should beexploited as fully as possible, it must not be at theexpense of renewing firm generating capacity’(Sharman, 2005). So, what can be done, short ofcompletely replacing the grid?

The UK’s Royal Commission onEnvironmental Pollution made this pronouncementback in 2000.

The electricity system will have to undergomajor changes to cope with … the expansionof smaller scale, intermittent renewable energysources. The transition towards a low-emission energy system would be greatlyhelped by the development of new means ofstoring energy on a large scale.(Royal Commission on Environmental

Pollution, 2000, p169)

Balancing supply and demand in the context of asteep rise in the contribution from renewables isa matter of considerable research interest. Oneproject at the demonstration stage is termed‘dynamic demand management’.This relies on asymbiotic relationship between the electricitygrid and appliances. It works, for example, by afridge having the facility to respond to slightvariations in the frequency of the supply. In theUK supply is around 50 hertz (US, 60Hz). If, forexample, a large scale wind farm off the ThamesEstuary were to experience a flat calm, the rest ofthe grid generators would have to cope with thedeficit. In the process the frequency may drop toabout 48.8Hz, which means that some loadwould have to be shed. At the moment loadshedding is under the centralized control of thepower companies. However, if appliances likefridges were to be part of the control network,this could obviate the need for load shedding onthe grid scale.A control mechanism in the fridgedetects the change in frequency and, at the sametime, checks the temperature. This enables it tocalculate how long it can remain sufficientlychilled without power and automatically switchesoff for that period. If the system were fitted toenough fridges, this could create enough ‘down

time’ to alleviate the problems caused byintermittent generation. It is estimated that, if the30 million fridges in the UK were fitted with thesystem, it would reduce peak demand by ~2GW.The cost of the modification would be around£4 per appliance, which would be a small priceto pay for achieving security of supply.

Another approach would be to adopt a smartgrid system. This also operates on the basis oftwo-way communication between an applianceand the electricity company. The difference isthat the appliance is the passive partner. Theutility predicts the output from, say, wind power,using information from local short-term weatherforecasts. It then uses information fed by theappliance to balance demand with supply. It isthen able to cause non-essential appliances toswitch off when necessary to relieve the load onthe grid. For example, an air conditioning systemcould be switched off for about 15 minuteswithout causing any discernible rise in indoortemperature. The City of Boulder, Colorado, isthe proving ground for the technology to assessthe viable maximum operational scope for windpower in the region (Boulder Convention andVisitors Bureau, ‘Leading the way in Green –from science to sustainability’).

Information technology is now capable ofmanaging the complexities of a system with alarge number and variety of distributed inputs tothe grid without centralized control. In dealingwith the interplay of supply and demand, it canprovide hour by hour least-cost outcomes to thebenefit of consumers.

Renewables at utility scale

Wind power

In 2007 wind power was the largest source ofnew generating capacity in Europe and in theUS, in 2008, 8.3GW of new capacity wasinstalled.This brings the US total at the time ofwriting to 25GW.

For the UK the best opportunities for powerfrom wind reside in the seas. Offshore wind isabout 50 per cent more productive than onshorealternatives. There are two categories: shallow



and deep offshore. Shallow turbines operate indepths under 25m and are roughly twice the costof onshore equivalents. Deep offshoreopportunities are in depths of 25–50m. In 2005the average load factor for all major wind farmswas 28 per cent. The average for all the mainonshore farms was 26.4 per cent.

In December 2007 the UK governmentannounced that it would give permits for acapacity of 33GW of offshore wind electricity.Given its load factor, this would deliver an averageof 10GW (33 per cent).This would require at least10,000 3MW machines. The cost, based on theKentish Flats farm off the Thames Estuarycompleted in 2005, would be £33 billion. Sincethen, unit costs for wind power have risenappreciably. An extra £3–4 billion would beneeded to supply the 50 or so installation,or ‘jack-up’ barges. If the costs were to be met by thetaxpayer it would now amount to ~£600 perperson. There is a view, expressed by a member of the Wind Energy Association, that such aproject is ‘pie in the sky’ (Mackay,2008,pp60–67).

Recently the view has been aired that thefocus should be on shallow offshore wind farmswith much lower installation and connectioncosts. However, this would limit the viable size ofmachine.

On 21 October 2008, the British governmentclaimed that it had surpassed Denmark in theinstallation of wind power and that it now hadenough capacity to power 300,000 homes.However, on the same day it was announced thatthe Crown Estates, who are responsible forlicensing wind farms within 200 miles of thecoast, is offering to enter into partnership withwind energy companies to exploit the hugeoffshore wind resource enjoyed by the UK.Despite long transmission lines, the advantages arethat the wind regime is fairly consistent and morepowerful than inshore and onshore sites, and thatlarger turbines can be employed. To endorse thelatter point, a 7.5MW offshore machine is beingassembled at Blyth, Northumberland.The view inthe industry is that 10MW is the maximum viablesize for deep offshore machines.

A drawback with offshore turbines is the highcost of the foundations. A demonstration projectunderway off the Norwegian coast involves a

floating turbine to overcome this problem. Theprinciple is that a flotation chamber providesbuoyancy while extended legs anchor the systemto the seabed by suction. It is a joint project, withSiemens providing the turbine and Hydro ofNorway the foundation technology. The latterwill adapt the technology it has employed onfloating oil rigs. Completion is planned for 2009.

There has been a pronouncement by the UKgovernment that 20 per cent of its electricity will come from renewables by 2020. About 75 per cent of this, it is said, will be provided by wind power. It remains to be seen if there arepies in the sky.

As a postscript to wind, one factor that hasbeen inhibiting the development of wind poweris the interference threat they pose to aircraftradar.This is because current systems are unableto distinguish between aircraft and rotatingturbines. A UK engineering firm, CambridgeConsultants, has devised a scanning process thatsimultaneously scans the whole sky every 4seconds. This produces a 3D image of theairspace, which its inventors call ‘holographicradar’. The increased scanning rate provides thelevel of resolution necessary to distinguishbetween planes and turbines. However, thistechnology may be overtaken by the applicationof military stealth technology to turbine blades,making them invisible to radar.

The Achilles heel of wind power is its chaoticintermittence. There are several approaches tosolving this problem. At present the preferredoption is to resort to gas-turbine generation,which is sufficiently flexible to provide balancingpower. The power company E.ON has claimedthat wind power needs 90 per cent backup fromcoal and gas plants (Guardian, 4 June 2008).However, the post-fossil fuel age will demandother systems. If intermittent systems are to befully exploited, they must be in association withdevelopments in both the storage of electricityand serious changes to the grid.

Electricity storageA tried and tested system is pumped storage,which was originally introduced to smooth the



peaks and troughs of demand that causedproblems for nuclear power stations such asTrawsfynydd in north Wales (Figure 14.4). It wascoupled with two lakes, one adjacent to theplant, the other high in the hills into which itpumped water during periods of low demandand therefore energy price. At peak periods itwas returned to the lower Lake Trawsfynydd,powering conventional turbines in the process.

Pumped storage is also one of the optionsbeing considered in combination with a tidalbarrage in the Severn Estuary.

For some years compressed air has beenutilized as a storage technology, notably inunderground caverns in Alabama, US. A similarplant is under construction at Huntorf, Germany.Studies suggest that compressed air storage wouldallow wind power to provide base load power.Such a storage system could be a cost-effectiveway of wind power meeting 80 per cent of thedemand for the grid.

Battery storage is also breaking new ground.Lead acid batteries do not have the energy densityto store megawatt scale power. However, onealternative is the sodium sulphur battery, which

operates at a high temperature. It promises highpower and energy densities. However, the sodiumhas to be above its melting point (98°C), whichcauses problems of thermal management andcorrosion. However, it has the capacity to storetens of megawatts so it must have a future withintermittent technologies. Its main threat is fromthe advancing development of lithium batteries.

For some time there has been support for thefuel cell as a method of facilitating the storage ofelectricity. The standard method of producingthe necessary hydrogen is either throughreforming natural gas, since methane has a highhydrogen content (CH4), or electrolysis.However, neither is a carbon-free option unlessthe electrolysis of water is powered fromrenewable sources.

Here, too, there are promising developments.Electrolysers are, in effect, reverse fuel cells, usingelectrical current to split water into itsconstituents of two parts hydrogen to one partoxygen.A Sheffield based company, ITM Power,is claiming a revolution in electrolyser and fuelcell technology.The major cost element of bothtechnologies is the membrane, which is based on


Source: Wikipedia

Figure 14.4 Pumped storage using natural contours

Discharge

Elevator

Pumped-Storage PlantVisitors Center Switchyard

ReservoirIntake

Main Access Tunnel

Surge Chamber

Powerplant Chamber

Breakers

Transformer Vault


platinum. In its place the company has created aunique low-cost polymer that offers aneconomic option for manufacturing hydrogen.At present there are demonstration programmesto test the technology for both vehicle anddomestic application (see Chapter 15).

Flow battery technology

The most promising technology for megawatt scalerenewable energy storage is the Vanadium FlowBattery (Figure 14.5).This is not a new technology,but it has only recently been scaled-up to storeenough electricity to offer multi-megawatt hoursof current.The process comprises two storage tanksfilled with electrolyte solution, each with slightlydifferent ionic characteristics. The tanks areseparated by a proton exchange membrane thatallows ionic interchange to occur. Both tanks arelinked to storage tanks and pumps permitting largeamounts of electricity to be stored. Under thecharging condition, electrodes force a charge fromone tank to the other. Ionic change occurs whenelectrons are moved from the positive tank acrossthe membrane to the negative tank. Current isdischarged when the process is reversed.

This technology is highly suitable as abalancing power system because the battery canrapidly discharge current, making it particularlyuseful for chaotic intermittent renewables like

wind power. Its main disadvantage is that itoccupies a large area in proportion to the kilowatthours stored. However, in the case of wind farmsor tidal energy, this is a problem that couldprobably be overcome. The system is currentlybeing installed in a 39MW wind farm in Donegal, Ireland, by VRB Power Systems ofVancouver.

In The Netherlands there are plans to create aman-made island to accommodate pumpedstorage of water from the North Sea. It is designedas a backup to wind power and to generate peak-time power.Water will be pumped when supplyexceeds demand. It will have a capacity of 1.5GWand should provide power to two million homes.If it is successful, other smaller islands could beconstructed to provide power to other countries,notably the UK, which looks like beingexcessively reliant on wind power.

Massive dykes would be built to keep backthe sea. The centre of the island would beexcavated to 40m below sea level. Pipes in thedykes would allow water to pour into the cavity,generating power in the process. It would bepumped out when full to capacity. Theelectricity needed to pump out the store wouldat least be matched by the electricity generatedin the charging stage. The prime purpose of the facility would be to ensure continuity ofsupply from wind turbines with between 30 and40 per cent capacity factor.


Figure 14.5 Principle of the Vanadium Flow Battery

Generator

Pump

PositiveElectrolyte

Tank

NegativeElectrolyte

TankV4+ V4+

Pump

Load

DC/AC

V2+ V2+


Solar electricityAreas with a high rate of sunshine and high levelof solar intensity, such as southern Spain andnorth Africa enjoy considerable potential forconverting that energy into electricity. Twotechnologies are available: concentrated solarpower and photovoltaics (PV). Both can producepower in the multi-megawatt range.

Concentrated solar power (CSP)

According to Renewable Energy World.com(2 September 2008) ‘concentrated solarthermal power is emerging behind wind as asignificant source of renewable wholesalegeneration capacity’. In mid-2008 the totalCSP installed capacity was 431MW, mostly in

Spain, with an estimated 7000MW due by2012. Of this, 44 per cent will be in the US, 41per cent in Spain and 10 per cent in theMiddle East.

Southern Spain receives over 3000 hours ofsunshine per year. In 2004 Spain pioneered theidea of a feed-in tariff for renewables. It was setat 27 eurocents/kWh for CSP plants up to50MW. It will last for 25 years increasing withinflation minus 1 per cent.The outcome is thatsouthern Spain is the test bed for two approachesto solar thermal electricity. One is the ‘powertower’. In the first of the genre in Europe, northof Saville, 600 flat mirrors or heliostats, each120m2, track the sun to focus on a boiler togenerate steam at the tower’s apex 115m aboveground. It generates 11MW of electricity,which, it is claimed, will power 6000 homes(Figures 14.6 to 14.8).The second system is the


BoilerWater heated to550°C producingsteam

Motorizedheliostars

Detail

To grid

Molton saltsHeat store

Turbine

To grid

To condenser

For night-time powerisolated from tower

Stop cocks toisolate circuit

Condenserturbine

Figure 14.6 Concentrated solar power principle


ground-based linear reflector focusing on a heatpipe that generates steam.

Solar power is obviously intermittent, so thestorage of thermal energy is a valuable facility. Inthis case,heat is stored in tanks as pressurized steamat 50 bar and 285°C. The steam condenses andflashes back to steam for generating when the

pressure is lowered. It only provides one hour ofstorage.However,molten salts as a storage mediumwill duly replace this system. Extended storage notonly increases the generating time but also allowssolar to provide power when the energy price is atits peak. In parallel, electricity could also be storedin a Vanadium Flow Battery, as discussed above.


Source: Wikipedia

Figure 14.7 PS10 Solar Power Tower, Sanlúcar la Mayor, near Seville

Source: Wikipedia

Figure 14.8 Heliostats for solar thermal electricity, California


The PS10 is the first of a series of towersscheduled for the site, which will raise thecapacity to 300MW by 2013.The second tower,PS20, is nearing completion. On the same site isSevilla PV, which is the largest groundconcentration of PVs in Europe.

Horizontal CSP generation

The alternative to the power tower is a linearparabolic trough generator. The sun is directedby parabolic mirrors onto an absorber pipecontaining a heat transfer fluid, usually oil. Theheated fluid is pumped to a heat exchanger thatcreates steam to drive a turbine. The US andsouthern Spain are the key sites for thistechnology (Figure 14.9).The troughs are mostlyaligned along a north–south axis and rotated tofollow the angle of the sun throughout the day.

A variation on the horizontal approach isbeing trialled in Almeria, southern Spain, usingFresnel lens technology. It has been designed inassociation with the Fraunhofer Institute for SolarEnergy Systems (ISE) and uses flat mirrors thatcan be angled to echo the profile of the parabola.They are about 15 per cent less efficient thanparabolic mirrors but the cost savings more thancompensate for the difference. The State ofNevada is planning to invest $50 billion in Fresnelsolar power plants, which is an indication of twothings; anxieties over security of supply and thepotential of the technology (Figure 14.10).

However, it is north Africa that could be thejewel in the crown of solar electricity. Solarintensity in the region is twice that of southernSpain and is rarely impeded by clouds.Horizontal concentrated solar thermal energy inconjunction with coastal wind farms ‘couldsupply Europe with all the energy it needs’.Onlya fraction of the Sahara, about the size of a smallcountry, would be sufficient (Dr Anthony Patt ofthe Institute for Applied Systems Analysis inAfrica, at the Copenhagen climate changeconference, March 2009).

‘The largest technically accessible source ofpower on the planet is to be found in the desertsaround the equatorial regions of the earth’(Trans-Mediterranean Renewable EnergyCooperation (TREC) website homepage inOctober 2008).TREC was formed in 2003 andhas since developed the Desertec concept with aview to establishing a super-grid connectingEurope with north Africa. It would transmit highvoltage direct current (HVDC) to Europe withrelatively low transmission losses.TREC has highambitions as signified by its ‘Forum Solar10,000GW ’ at the 2008 Hanover Fair.

One of the advantages of solar thermalsystems is that they can work with conventionalturbines using the generators that operate infossil fuel power stations. Or, they can operate ashybrid systems. Exploiting existing technologycould be crucial in recommending thetechnology to developing countries.


Source: Wikipedia

Figure 14.10 Fresnel solar thermal electricity,southern Spain

Source: Wikipedia

Figure 14.9 Parabolic reflectors in the MojaveDesert, US


Gigawatt-scale photovoltaics

Until relatively recently PV technology has beenconfined to relatively small projects, oftenintegrated with buildings. Until recently Germanyhad been setting the pace with projects like the15MW+ PV farm at Arnstein, Bavaria. The PVindustry owes its success in Germany to a feed-intariff. However, it is being dwarfed by burgeoningactivity in the US. Here, uncertainties about thesecurity of fossil-based energy have led to a massiveexpansion of utility-scale PV farms. The mostambitious project to date is the dual agreementbetween the Pacific Gas and Electric Company(PG&EC) and Topaz Solar Farms for 550MW thinfilm PVs and High Plains Ranch II for a 250MWPV farm. Both are located in San Luis Obispo,California. The total of 800MW should deliver1.65 billion kilowatt hours of renewable electricitya year.The project is expected to be online in 2010and fully operational in 2012.

The ultimate destiny for PVs would seem to be‘very large-scale photovoltaic systems’ (VLS-PV) inthe multi-megawatt range. These would be located in desert regions, for example,north Africa,

the Gobi Desert and the Australian interior. Onethird of the Earth’s surface is barren desert.Covering a small fraction of this area with PVscould meet current global primary energydemand. As much of this area is located withinthe least developed and energy deprivedcountries, such projects could ultimatelytransform the lives of millions of people by theexport of power to Europe.

A one gigawatt farm consisting of standardsingle-sun modules would typically cover an areaof 7km2. However, this area could be reduced bythe use of multilayer concentrated solar PVs.There would also be the benefit of economies ofscale that could make it cost-competitive withsolar thermal electricity.

Electricity by inflation

‘Cool Earth Solar’ has recently patented a lowcost concentrated solar PV system. It consists ofa thin plastic film inflated balloon lined withreflective material concentrating the sun’s raysonto a PV cell (Figure 14.11). An automated


Source: Courtesy of Cool Earth Solar Inc

Figure 14.11 Inflatable solar PV concentrator

Harness

Plastic filmcabling and heat exchanger

Support andcontrol cable

2-m inflatable concentratorSolar receiver


flow of water ensures that the balloon’s pressureis kept constant. At the same time a closed loopcirculation of water at one gallon per minuteensures that the device is kept cool.

The first demonstration project is a 1.5MWarray covering ~12 acres near Tracy, California.Its installed cost is $1.0 per watt and it is due tobe grid-connected in mid-2009. It is designed asa utility-scale technology.

The future of PV

Finally, where is PV heading? The US NationalRenewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hasachieved a conversion efficiency of 40.8 per cent.This is close to the record and was achieved witha wafer thin, solar tracking, triple junction, solarconcentrated cell. The solar concentration was326 suns. Its chemical composition splits thesolar spectrum into three equal parts to beabsorbed by the three junctions.

Prime opportunities for the UKFor the UK, the seas, in terms of currents andtidal elevation, will be its salvation. Since the1920s the Severn has been a candidate for atidal barrage. It has been consistently opposedby groups such as the Royal Society for the

Protection of Birds (RSPB).The latest proposalis for a prefabricated system on the lines of theMulberry Harbour in the Second World War(Figure 14.12). Being a modular system, itcould conceivably generate power from tidalcurrents as each module is installed until thebarrage is complete and it achieves its designcapacity.

There is another overwhelmingly urgentcase for an estuary barrage that was highlightedin a forecast by the Met Office concerning thestorm surge risk in northwast Europe. InChapter 2 the Thames was identified as havingthe highest risk of all and a solution was offeredin the shape of an estuary barrage. Aconventional barrage in the Severn Estuary, asshown in Figure 14.12, would generate14.8GWp producing 25TWH per year (DECC,2008b).

Non-barrage options

A high energy density system has been conceivedby Blue Energy Canada consisting of 3m diametervertical rotors that can generate power on bothebb and flow tides. It could be an option for theSevern and could pacify the RSPB. It would beprefabricated and considerably cheaper to installthan a hard barrage (Figure 14.13).


Figure 14.12 Prefabricated barrage proposal for the Severn Estuary


One advantage of the energy bridge conceptis that it would be constructed on a modularbasis. As the Worldwatch Institute points out, a1000MW generating plant takes 10 years tobuild, only operating from year 11. A modulardesign such as the tidal fence would comprise10MW modules, each taking about 12 months toinstall.This would be generating electricity afteryear one producing 8.8MWh in that year, witheach subsequent module generating as soon as itcomes online. By the end of year 11 it will haveproduced five times as much as the large unit inthat year.As there will a return on capital after thefirst year, growing incrementally to year 10, thismakes it a much more attractive investmentoption than the conventional barrage.

An alternative version of the tidal fence underconsideration for the Severn from Minehead toAberthaw also features in the Department ofEnergy and Climate Change (DECC) FeasibilityStudy. Its peak capacity is 1.3GW and its output,3.5TWh per year. It consists of horizontal axis

rotors within a bridge structure. It is proposed byengineers Pulse Tidal. A variation on the theme of vertical rotors is the helical or ‘Gorlov’underwater rotor (Figure 14.14).

Alexander Gorlov was inspired by theDarrieus vertical axis rotor patented in 1931.Gorlov modified the concept by twisting theblades into a helical form. The blades aremodelled on the aerofoil profile of the wing of aBoeing 727.Tests conducted by the US MarineHydrodynamics Laboratory demonstrated thatthe rotor would start spinning in water movingat as little as 2 knots and could capture about 36 per cent of the kinetic energy of the current.

In 2002 the Korean government began testsof the rotor in the rapid tidal current of theUldolmok Strait. Their success led to theinstallation of a demonstration project in whicha 15 foot diameter turbine produced 1MW ofpower. The Korean government is nowconsidering an array of Gorlov turbines in theStrait, sufficient to deliver 3.6GW of electricity.


Figure 14.13 Tidal energy bridge or ‘tidal fence’ with vertical rotors

BEARINGS

WORKING BLADES(HYDROFOILS)

ROTOR SHAFTSUPPORT ARMS

TURBINE POWERDUCT

COUPLING CHAMBER

GEARBOX

GENERATOR

ENCLOSUREMACHINERY


Tidal impoundment

Another variation on the barrage theme hasbeen proposed in the ‘Ecostar Scoping Model’devised by Stuart H Anderson.This approach isknown as coastal impoundment, comprised ofD-shaped pounds connected to the coast, whichtherefore differ from offshore tidal lagoons.Together these sites could offer gigawatts ofelectricity.The areas most suitable are LiverpoolBay and the north Wales coast. Theimpoundments largely follow the 10munderwater contour and would be extensions ofthe coastline. For access to Liverpool, the barragewould have to incorporate an ocean lock.Smaller locks would be needed elsewhere forleisure boating (Figure 14.15).

The coasts of Britain also offer hugeopportunities for tidal stream power. The


Figure 14.14 The Gorlov helical rotor

Source: Courtesy of Ecostar

Figure 14.15 Northwest coastal impoundment proposal UK

Bangor

Ynys MÖn

ANGLESEY

Red Wharf Bay

Blackpool

Southport

FormbyLIVERPOOL

BIRKENHEAD

Chester

R. Mers

ey

Tremadog Bay

Conwy Bay

Liverpool Bay

SnowdoniaNational

Park

Barmouth Bay

Aberystwyth

SCALE (kms)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

PorthmadogPwllheli

Penins

ular

Lleyn

Aberdovey

Barmouth

Caern

arfo

n

Pen. Mt.

Landudno

R.C

onw

y Rhyl

R.C

lwyd

R.Dee

Menai

Str.


government estimate is that there are over 40sites around the UK suitable for tidal streamenergy and significantly more if the ChannelIslands are included. Marine Current Turbineshave an underwater tidal mill under test inNorthern Ireland. It echoes a wind turbine in itstechnology but offers more reliable power at ahigher energy density.

An innovative system currently under testhas been developed by OpenHydro. It consists ofgiant fans with blades connected to a rotor thatspins inside the structure as water flows through.Electricity is generated as the rotor turns past amagnet generator on the outer rim of thestructure (Figures 14.16 and 14.17).

An OpenHydro scheme is being evaluated bythe Channel Island of Alderney, which has a tidalrace between the island and France of up to 12knots.The generating potential is estimated to beup to 3 gigawatts.

Vortex induced vibrations for aquaticclean energy (VIVACE)

‘Vortex Induced Vibrations for Aquatic CleanEnergy’ or VIVACE is a technology designed toharness energy from slow moving ocean and rivercurrents (Figure 14.18). It has been proposed by ateam led by Professor Bernitsas of the Universityof Michigan and works by producing vortex-induced vibrations, which are undulations that acircular or cylinder shaped object creates in a flowof fluid. The cylinder creates alternating vorticesto form above and below the cylinder, pushing itup and down on springs creating mechanicalenergy. This energy then powers an electricalgenerator. Such vortices have a destructive trackrecord in the form of wind, for example,destroying cooling towers at the FerrybridgePower Station in the UK in 1965 (Figure 14.19).VIVACE is designed to operate in currentsmoving slower than 2 knots or ~2.5mph. Thismeans that it has huge potential as a method ofharnessing energy from the massive currents thatcircumnavigate the Earth as well as currents inrivers and estuaries or around land masses.


Source: OpenHydro Ltd

Figure 14.17 OpenHydro in operation on the seabed

Figure 14.16 OpenHydro on test

Source: Courtesy of Michael Bernitsas, University of Michigan

Figure 14.18 A VIVACE layout



Source: Wikipedia

Figure 14.19 Vivace: induced opposing vibrations producing oscillation

Current

Bluff Body

Flow Lines

Movement

Shedding

Shedding

Movement

Vortices

Figure 14.20 Principle of the OTEC system

Ammonia gasdrives turbine Generator

Barge

Vaporizer Condenser

Powerline

3kmflowtube8m Φ

Pump

return tube

deepocean5°C

Pump

Liquidammonia

Surface water15°C

10°C


Ocean Thermal EnergyConversion (OTEC)

Ocean thermal energy conversion technology,as itsname suggests, exploits the difference intemperature between water near the surface of theocean and water deeper down (Figure 14.20).The surface water heats a fluid with a low boilingpoint. Ammonia is an obvious choice. At boilingpoint it turns into a gas with enough pressure todrive a turbine.The gas is then cooled to a liquidby passing it through cold water pumped from thedeep ocean. To give an idea of the scale of theoperation, for an output of 100MW the coolingtubes are about 3000m long and about 8m indiameter.As the price of fossil fuels rises, companiesfrom Japan to Hawaii are in a race to build OTECmachines.The US is investigating the feasibility of500MW OTEC plants on offshore platformssending power to an onshore grid.The first, muchsmaller,plant is due to be operational by 2011, sitedoff the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Oceanto serve a US military base.There are also plans tobuild a 100MW OTEC plant off the coast ofIndonesia. Its electricity will be used to producehydrogen to power vehicles.

ConclusionThis chapter has focused mainly on technologiesthat could achieve multi-gigawatt capacity andbe extremely attractive to utility companies.However, talk of meeting the world’s demand forenergy at its current level from renewables isunrealistic. Renewables can rescue the worldfrom energy starvation. But quality of life will

only be sustained with massive cuts in thedemand for energy.

The UK has special problems.While much ofits present generating capacity will have beendecommissioned in the next 15–20 years, by2020 15 per cent of its energy will have to becarbon free according to EU rules.This translatesto saying that roughly 35 per cent of its electricitywill have to come from renewables. Asmentioned the Energy Saving Trust has estimatedthat 40 per cent of electricity could come from,mostly domestic, small scale generation.This is animprobable target unless homeowners and smallto medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are givensome incentive, such as a significant feed-in tariff,comparable to that offered in Germany.The starkreality is that the UK will have to be ahead of thepack in reducing the demand for energy if it is toenjoy a sustainable, although possibly stand-still,economy beyond 2030.

Inevitably, the UK faces a revolution in thesupply of energy, first in terms of its availabilitybut, secondly, in the reform of the supply system.There must be a rapid transition to a binarysystem, that is, local, community networksconnecting micro- and mini-renewables likehousehold PVs. For balancing power they couldbe connected to a slimmed-down national gridsupplied by gigawatt scale renewables like tidalpower and offshore wind, meeting perhaps 35 per cent of current capacity.

The conclusion by Mackay (2008,pp113–114) is that ‘To sustain Britain’s lifestyleon its renewables alone would be very difficult.A renewable-based energy solution willnecessarily be large and intrusive.’ Hisconclusion, like Lovelock, is that Britain needsnuclear power.



The predicted demise of reserves of oil and gashas fuelled speculation that hydrogen will be theanswer to an impending energy black hole. If itworks for the sun, why not for us? Harnessingthis most abundant gas is the challenge of thecentury, for its applications from fusion to fuelcells.

To be precise, hydrogen is not a fuel but anenergy carrier. It is bound up with otherchemicals and so, first, has to be released. It canbe burnt directly as a fuel or used to generateelectricity via a fuel cell.

Production of hydrogenHydrogen can be produced by four methods:

• electrolysis, which splits water into itsconstituents of hydrogen and oxygen, ideallyusing renewable electricity;

• a thermochemical reaction that releaseshydrogen from water or biomass;

• a thermo-dissociation of hydrogen-richcompounds, again ideally using renewableelectricity, for example, reforming of naturalgas (methane);

• microbial activity that releases hydrogenfrom organic compounds like biomasswaste.

Currently the most popular method of obtaininghydrogen is by reforming natural gas by heatingit with steam in the presence of a catalyst.At thisstage in the spread and efficiency of renewables,this is a far from zero carbon process, especially

as it produces CO2 as a by-product. It is oftenclaimed that PVs can ensure that fuel cells arecarbon-neutral. In the domestic sector this ishighly unlikely. For example an average house inthe UK with roof-mounted PVs would generateabout 3000kWh/year of electricity via a fuelcell.This is about one-eighth the requirement ofan average house.

The second best production method issplitting water into its constituents of oxygenand hydrogen by electrolysis. Electrolysers areeffectively reverse fuel cells, and, as with fuelcells, require platinum electrodes. Passingelectricity through water produces hydrogen atone electrode and oxygen at the other. This iswhere the main installation cost penalty isincurred.There are only five platinum mines inthe world.The platinum in a fuel cell currentlycosts around $3000 for 100 grams. In the auto-industry there is confidence that a car fuel cellwill only need 20 grams by 2015. If true, thatcost advantage will also benefit the domesticenergy market.

The fuel cell

There are numerous industrial uses for hydrogenbut its true destiny lies in generating electricityfrom fuel cells. A fuel cell is an electro-chemicaldevice that generates direct current (DC). Itconsists of two electrodes, an anode and a cathode,separated by an electrolyte,which might be a solidmembrane.Unlike a battery, it requires a continualsupply of a hydrogen-rich fuel that enters at oneelectrode and oxygen at the other. Essentially it is

15

The Age Beyond Oil


The Age Beyond Oil 155

a reactor that combines hydrogen and oxygen, viacatalysts, to produce electricity, water and heat asby-products (Figure 15.1).

This is described as a redox reaction,propelling electrons around an external circuit, andit is an electrochemical equivalent of combustion.It is a robust technology with no moving parts andan efficiency of up to 60 per cent.1

The commodity price of platinum is themain obstacle to the widespread adoption of fuelcells.There needs to be an alternative method ofcatalysis for electrolysers and fuel cells avoidingplatinum and ITM Power claims to have foundit. Most fuel cells at present are the PEM type.This means that the fuel cell is acidic andtherefore needs the platinum catalyst. The ITMPower solution is to install an alkalinemembrane, with nickel replacing platinum. Thecompany has developed a solid but flexiblepolymer gel that is three times as conductive as aplatinum based PEM. In mass production thecost of the membrane would be $5/m2 ascompared to $500 for existing PEMs.The result

is that an electrolyser would cost $164 perkilowatt of capacity as against the current averageof $2000/kW.

The ITM manufacturing facility in Sheffieldis at present concentrating on homeelectrolysers. It is the size of a large refrigerator,would be connected to mains water and driven,in part, by renewable energy. The hydrogenproduced could be used as a direct fuel, as it wasfor cooking in the Fraunhofer Institute’sexperimental zero carbon house (page 31). Ashydrogen is odourless, appliances have to befitted with sensors to immediately identify leaks.Car firm BMW uses compressed hydrogen tofuel its demonstration piston engine hydrogencar. Even more ambitious are the hydrogenpowered shuttle buses in Vancouver. They usedhydrogen, which is the waste stream from theproduction of chlorine. The buses retain theirconventional piston engines but ran oncompressed hydrogen gas.

In a home hydrogen could be used to produceelectricity, either by driving a turbine/generator or

Catalyst

Anode

Cathode

Catalyst

Oxygen Water and heat

Electrons

Protons

Hydrogen

Electrolyte

Figure 15.1 Basic Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell



a fuel cell. The chief executive officer (CEO) of ITM Power is confident that mass productionwill bring the cost of the home electrolyser downto less that £10,000 per unit.This is just one factorthat raises concerns about the cost of converting tohydrogen. David Strahan (2008) cites an example.A large house able to accommodate 60m2 ofphotovoltaics on its roof would generate10,000kWh/y and cost in the region of £50,000.If used to power a 60 per cent efficient fuel cell,the effective yield would be 6000kWh/y. This isonly 25 per cent of the energy (heat and power)used by an average house in the UK. Used topower a small car by means of a fuel cell, thiswould provide for about 7200km in a year, whichis half the average annual mileage of a British car.

ITM Power admit that the figures are notattractive at this stage, but its CEO states: ‘that’show every technology starts. There are earlyadopters and then mass production brings downcosts hugely’. However, Strahan points out that,whilst ITM may have solved a major problem ofthe cost of fuel cells and electrolysers, ‘nobodyhas solved a more fundamental problem: theinefficiency of the whole hydrogen fuel chain’(Strahan, 2008).

As described in Chapter 7, there may be ananswer for the domestic market, thanks to CeresPower, which has developed a solid oxide micro-fuel cell (SOFC) for the home (Figure 15.2).

The Ceres Power SOFC can operate onnatural gas, methane or propane and delivers amaximum electrical output of just over 1kW. Itsdimensions are 205mm × 305mm × 305mm.Weighing 25kg means it can be wall-mounted.For most households its capacity to reform

natural gas is the key to its future promise and isthe reason why the company has been able tosecure a major distribution agreement withBritish Gas. The fuel cell was bench testedduring the first quarter of 2009 and thereaftertested in selected homes. It is expected to bemarket-ready by 2011.

Hydrogen storage

This is another area where there may be a highenergy, and therefore, high cost involvement.Hydrogen gas has a high energy density byweight but poor energy density by volumecompared with hydrocarbons.Therefore it needsa larger storage vessel for a given amount ofenergy compared with petrol, diesel orcompressed natural gas. Pressurizing the gasimproves its energy density, but this carries anenergy penalty together with a requirement forincreased container strength.

The Space Programme has led to highervolumetric energy density being developedthrough liquefying the hydrogen. Storagerequires the gas to be cooled to –252.882°C(–423.188°F) involving a large energy deficit.Highly insulated tanks must ensure that thistemperature is maintained. A quite smalltemperature rise could cause boil-off of the gas.Even under these conditions, liquid hydrogenhas only one-quarter the energy density byvolume of hydrocarbon fuels.

Considerable research effort is being directedat alternative methods of storage, notably metalhydrides. Solid hydride storage is a favouritemedium for mobile use. However, a hydridestorage tank is about three times larger and fourtimes heavier than a petrol or diesel tankcontaining the equivalent energy. There are stillsafety as well as efficiency issues to be overcomewith this technology. At the same time, thehydrogen must be of high purity. Contaminantscan undermine absorption.

The Universities of Birmingham,Loughborough and Nottingham are members ofa Midlands consortium devoted to fuel cellresearch including hydrogen storage. As stated,conventional methods like compressed orFigure 15.2 Ceres Power 1kW SOFC unit



liquefied hydrogen consume process energy andrequire high strength storage tanks. In the case ofliquefied hydrogen, they must also be heavilyinsulated. The alternative is to use materials that absorb or adsorb large amounts of hydrogenat lower pressures and better volumetric storagedensities. According to scientists at theUniversity of Nottingham TechnologiesResearch Institute ‘Compact solid state storageof hydrogen is crucial if we are to meet the longterm targets for hydrogen systems’ (Walker,2008). These include high capacity light-metalhydrides and complex hydrides such asmagnesium and borohydrides (Figure 15.3).Theaim is to improve the binding strength of thehydrogen molecules in porous frameworkmaterials such as zeolites.This enables the gas tobe stored at, or near, room temperature.

Carbon nanotubes initially offered thepromise of a 50 per cent by weight storagecapability. This storage route still attractsconsiderable research attention.

Ammonia is another candidate as a storagemedium, with its relatively high hydrogen

content (NH3). The hydrogen is released in acatalytic reformer and can offer high storagedensity as a liquid with only moderatepressurization and cooling. It can be stored atroom temperature and atmospheric pressurewhen mixed with water. It is the second mostcommonly produced chemical enjoying a largeinfrastructure for production and transportation.When reformed to hydrogen there are no wasteproducts.

In September 2005 scientists at the TechnicalUniversity of Denmark devised a method ofstoring hydrogen in the form of ammoniasaturated in salt.They claim it will be a safe andinexpensive method of storage.Time will tell.

Towards zero carbon transportHydrogen is considered by many to be the holygrail for transport.To appreciate the scale of thechallenge, in 2007, 71 million cars were producedworldwide. Not only is this sector a major carboncontributor, it is closely related to buildings and

Source: Courtesy of Birmingham University.

Figure 15.3 Metal hydride storage containers in the Protium Project



where they are located. It accounts for roughly 25 per cent of primary energy consumption inOECD countries and that equates toapproximately the same CO2 emissions. It is alsohighly sensitive to oil shocks and the prospect ofdepleted reserves of oil. As with the builtenvironment, it is high time that the relatedsectors responded to the urgent need to reducetheir reliance on oil, with the simultaneous effectof slashing their carbon emissions.

Considerable progress is being made inimproving the efficiency of petrol and dieselengines, especially with the emergence ofvarious kinds of hybrid technology. Theconsumption target of 100 miles per gallon(mpg) is already being achieved and will becomecommonplace within the next decade.The mostpromising technology is that employed in theGM Volt.This is a battery powered vehicle witha small petrol/diesel engine employed to chargebatteries on demand. It is estimated that the carwill travel 40 miles before needing to becharged. This is likely to be the first mediumsized family car to breach the 100mpg barrier.

There are still those who put their faith inbiofuels as the cure for the addiction to oil.Taking the year 2003 as the benchmark for adeveloped country, in that year the transportsector in the UK consumed about 50 billiontonnes of oil. To suggest that biofuels couldsubstitute for this scale of consumption isimpractical, principally on the basis of the area ofland that would be committed to energy crops atthe expense of food production. However, theremay be a source of biofuel that does notprejudice food production: microalgae.

The UK Carbon Trust is embarking on amultimillion pound initiative to promote thisbiofuel, which can be cultivated and manipulatedto produce high yields of oil. It can be used as afeedstock for refining into transport oil. Since itdoes not require arable land, fresh water and doesnot compete with food crops, it promises torepresent ‘a disruptive technological breakthrough’(Carbon Trust). The challenge is to make itcommercially viable. The Carbon Trust AlgaeBiofuels Challenge (ABC) will channel fundsinto R&D with the aim of moving to large scaleproduction of algae oil.

Nevertheless, there are good grounds forbelieving that the long-term means of propulsionfor land transport is via electricity. This impliestwo energy sources: batteries and hydrogen.Meanwhile, hybrid technology will offersignificant carbon reductions in the short tomedium term. In this case a relatively modestfossil fuel engine works symbiotically with apowerful battery. The Toyoto Prius was thecommercial innovator of this technology. Thelatest versions use plug-in technology, whichallows batteries to be recharged at homeovernight, or in the day whilst in the company carpark. In 2008,Toyota revealed the prototype of itsplug-in Prius.There is a claim that it can achieve100mpg (2.4L/100km) if the batteries arerecharged when the car is not in use.The secret ofits success is the additional nickel-hydride batterypack that increases range and speed.

The hydrogen path

To repeat, hydrogen gas can either be used as adirect fuel for a conventional piston engine, or asfeedstock for a fuel cell. It is more efficient thanan internal combustion engine (ICE), but, forthe present, more costly per kilometre. As adirect fuel (as in the prototype BMW) it isaround 8 per cent more efficient than a petrolengine, whereas a fuel cell is at least twice asefficient.At present it is the high cost of fuel cellsat about $5500/kW that is the main barrier toprogress, although this may be about to changeas indicated below.The other problem is that fuelcells for vehicles would need hydrogen with apurity as high as 99.999 per cent.

For these reasons, the widespread adoptionof fuel cell technology is some way off. Onekilogram of hydrogen has the energy equivalentof one gallon of petrol. On the US market thismakes hydrogen about four times moreexpensive than petroleum-based fuel. However,since a fuel cell vehicle should be twice asefficient as an ICE equivalent, the fuels willbreak-even when hydrogen drops to twice theprice of petrol. But if the hydrogen were to becarbon-free during production as well as use,and the avoided external costs were to be



factored-in, then hydrogen would already becost-effective.

However, several factors are coalescing tomake the fuel cell vehicle more attractive to themarket than its ICE counterpart:

• the inexorable rise in oil price, $75 a barrelat the time of writing;

• rising uncertainty over secure suppliesthrough a combination of resourcedepletion and an increasingly destabilizedMiddle East;

• present generation ICE vehicles are nearingthe peak of their efficiency, which theindustry regards as 30 per cent. Withinternational research being directedtowards fuel cell technology, it is verypossible that their efficiency will rise from50 per cent now to at least 60 per cent.

For some years Honda has been investigating thepotential of fuel cell technology, and the fruit of

this work is the Honda FCX Clarity.This is notan adaptation of an ICE model but a pure-bredinnovative vehicle and the first of the genre to bereleased on the market, albeit on a leasehold basis(Figure 15.4).

The practical availability of the FCX Clarityis presently limited to greater Los Angeles,Orange County, where there are five hydrogenfilling stations. It has a range of 270 miles and, interms of running costs, it is claimed to be theequivalent of 81 imperial mpg. In terms of itsperformance, it can achieve 100mph and manage0–60mph in 10 seconds.

Honda began research into fuel cellpropulsion for cars in 1986, so the FCX is thefruit of a long period of research anddevelopment. Now that Honda has withdrawnfrom Formula One racing,much more investmentshould be available for a technology that willshape the future of automotive engineering.

However, enthusiasm for the Honda shouldnot blind us to the problems that will have to be

Source: Courtesy of Honda UK

Figure 15.4 Honda FCX Clarity


addressed, especially if hydrogen is not derivedfrom green technologies. According to energyconsultant Hugh Sharman, to supply the UKtransport sector with the hydrogen/fuel celloption would need 2150PJ/year, which equals864.000GWh/year at 2003 transport density.This equates to an installed capacity of 98.6GW.If the electricity were to be obtained exclusivelyfrom wind power at a 30 per cent load factor thisrises to 329GW and would need 110,000 3MWturbines. Spaced at 500m (the norm) they wouldoccupy 27,000km2, which is rather more thanthe area of Wales (Sharman, 2005).These figuresare conservative because the energy consumedby transport in 2007 was 2511PJ.

At the same time, if the 71 million carsworldwide were converted to hydrogen it wouldrequire 1420 tonnes of platinum, which is sixtimes the present rate of production. Reserveswould be exhausted in 70 years (Strahan, 2008).It remains to be proved whether the ITM Powerbreakthrough in terms of catalyst costs involvedin the transition to hydrogen can be upscaled tocater for the entire transport sector.

Using hydrogen as a direct fuel, it has beencalculated that, from electrolysis to compressionfor storage as a fuel, only 24 per cent of theenergy involved does useful work. Batterypowered cars and plug-in hybrids use 69 per centof the original energy. According to GaryKendall of WWF ‘Cars running on hydrogenwould need three times the energy of thoserunning directly on electricity… The developedworld needs to completely decarboniseelectricity generation by 2050, so we can’t affordto throw way three-quarters of primary energyturning it into hydrogen’ (Kendall, 2008).

The battery option

The consultancy E4Tech states in a report to theUK Department for Transport (DfT) that if theUK were to switch to battery power fortransport, the charging load would add 16 per centto electricity demand. The hydrogen/fuel cellalternative would increase demand by more than32 per cent. Using hydrogen as a direct fuel forpiston engines, of the energy needed for

electrolysis and compression, only 24 per centwould end up at the wheels.

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratoryfor the US Department of Energy has indicatedthat much of the electricity generated at nightremains unused. This coincides with the timebattery vehicles will need to be recharged. A2006 study by the Laboratory found that thesurplus off-peak capacity of the US grid wouldbe sufficient to recharge 84 per cent of allvehicles in the US, assuming all vehicles werebattery powered.

Despite these difficulties, all majormanufacturers are developing variations on thetheme of electric propulsion with a view tolaunching models within the next five years. Ifthe Honda Clarity is the signpost to the futurefor fuel cell cars, the GM Chevrolet Volt E-REV(extended range electric vehicle) is carrying thebanner for battery power. It is sometimesreferred to as a hybrid vehicle; this is inaccurate.In scale it is a medium-size family saloon aboutthe size of a Vauxhall Astra. Propulsion is solelyfrom a powerful electric motor. An on-boardpetrol engine recharges the battery when outputis depleted (Figure 15.5). Along the central axisis a T-shaped 16kWh lithium-ion battery; at thefront right is a 1.4 litre petrol engine forcharging the battery; at the front left is the 360volt electric motor producing 150bhp.When thecar is moving on overrun, the electric motorbecomes a generator for the battery.

GM now has its sights on the Europeanmarket with its Opel/Vauxhall Ampera (Figure 15.6). It was launched at the Geneva


Source: Courtesy of GM

Figure 15.5 GM Volt concept model



Motor Show in March 2009. It employs the GMVoltec system first revealed in the GM Volt.According to the GM Europe chief marketingofficer: ‘With the Ampera, Opel will be the firstEuropean automobile manufacturer to providecustomers several hundred kilometres of non-stop electric driving.’ It is claimed to have a60km range on just its lithium-ion battery,charged from a 230 volt socket. For longerdistances it will continue under battery power,but, like the Volt, this will be continually chargedby a small petrol engine. The Ampera receivedthe 2009 What Car? Green Technology Award.

GM rival Chrysler is also developing a rangeof electric vehicles, with three plug-in electriccars due in 2010. It aims to use some form ofelectric propulsion for all its vehicles. Instead ofdesigning all-new cars, this company plans toadapt its existing models using a technologysimilar to the GM Volt. It has one all-electricsports car that only has a lithium ion batteryoffering a range of 150 miles. Ford is pinning its

hopes on its plug-in Escape Hybrid that featureslithium-ion batteries. The company claims itwill have a fuel economy of 120mpg(2L/100km). In the US, the market for all-electric cars is boosted by the availability of a taxcredit up to $7,500.

German car companies Mercedes and VW-Audi will soon be offering variations on the plug-in hybrid theme by around 2011. BMW has alsoentered the electric car arena with the Mini E. Ithas a 150kW electric motor powered by a lithium-ion battery capable of a top speed of 95mph and arange of 150 miles.The battery occupies the spaceformerly taken up by the rear seats.The firm willproduce an initial 500 vehicles that will go onurban trials in the US and Europe.

Generally, it still appears that most family all-electric cars will be limited to a range of 40–50miles that, for most, only makes them viable as asecond vehicle, unless there is a breakthrough inbattery technology. Perhaps the ZENN car (see p162) is the shape of things to come.

Source: Courtesy of GM Europe

Figure 15.6 Opel/Vauxhall Ampera



Advances in batterytechnologyThere are two main contenders for the futurebattery market:

• the UltraBattery;• Supercapacitator Battery.

The UltraBattery

The UltraBattery exploits the virtues of bothlead acid battery technology and theSupercapacitator, which offers rapid chargingand long life. The advantages of this system aresaid to be:

• life cycle four times longer thanconventional batteries;

• 50 per cent more power than equivalentlead acid batteries;

• about 70 per cent cheaper than currenthybrid vehicle systems;

• faster charge and discharge rates thanconventional batteries.

Its manufacturers claim it will not onlyrevolutionize battery-powered transport but willalso play an important role in providingelectricity storage and balancing power forintermittent renewable energy technologies.According to its specification (see ‘UltraBattery:no ordinary battery’ at www.csiro.au/science/UltraBattery.html) it ‘can be integrated intowind power systems to smooth intermittencyand potentially “time-shift” energy productionbetter to match demand’.This is a polite way ofsaying that, with grid connection, it canmaximize price opportunities.

The Supercapacitator Battery

Developed by EEStors, this technology couldrepresent a breakthrough in electrical storagetechnology. Unlike conventional batteries, nochemical reactions are involved in the process.A

capacitor stores energy by means of two plates inparallel. A negative charge applied to one of theplates will repel electrons from its opposite.Thischarge difference will be maintained as long asthe two plates remain electrically isolated andcan be employed to provide an electric current.A characteristic of capacitors is that they canrapidly store a charge, in contrast to the longcharging time needed by chemical batteries.Thefact that there is no chemical reaction means thatthe battery has an indefinite lifespan. It is a solidstate device so it has the ability to store aconsiderable amount of power in a very compactfootprint.

The key to the breakthrough withsupercapacitators lies in the composition of theinsulation separating the two plates.According toits patent application, it relies on barium titanate(BaTiO3) to provide the insulation capable ofsupporting a high charge of up to 52kWh,which is over ten times the power density of astandard lead-acid battery.

A manufacturer of lightweight electric cars,ZENN Motor Company, which produces thecityZENN car, is adopting this battery as the solesource of power. It is estimated to have a 250mile range between charges and a top speed upto 80mph. It is not sensitive to cold or heat andso is suitable for all climates. According toZENN, ‘this vehicle specifically will meet thedriving needs of probably 90 per cent of peoplein North America, and even more outside NorthAmerica in terms of driving habits’.

Finally, to cap its virtues, it uses a rawmaterial, barite, which has massive reserves –over 2 billion tonnes. Lithium, on the otherhand, has more limited reserves and a globalswitch to lithium batteries for propulsion couldexploit them to exhaustion.

In the short to medium term, supercapacitatorbatteries could outrun fuel cells in thepropulsion race. In the longer term, hydrogen iseffectively limitless and so there is little doubtthat it will be the ultimate source of energy forthe world.

For vehicles ‘hydrogen, with its higherenergy density and thus superior range, will


eventually win … it really could happen in themiddle of the next decade’ (Thiesen, 2008, p41).(Peter Thiesen is director of hydrogen strategyfor GM.)

Water-based transportThe UK House of Commons, EnvironmentalAudit Committee produced a report in 2006called Reducing Carbon Emissions from Transport.It concluded:

There are clear advantages in terms of carbonemissions of shifting freight from road towater, and the Department for Transportneeds to do more to actively encourage thisshift ... We urge the Government to lead theinternational community in drawingattention to carbon emissions frominternational shipping, and to make surethey are brought under an effective reductionregime in the post-Kyoto phase.

(House of Commons, 2006, p14)

Rivers and canals

In 2008 a report The Future of Transport – anetwork for 2030 was published by theDepartment for Transport. It states:

A key aspect to the harmonisation of freighttransport will undoubtedly be the re-emergence of inland water systems…[Giving rise to the need] to fully explore theestimated 5.100km of navigable waterwaysin England and Wales.

With congestion on the roads and the price offuel, the canals are slowly returning to favour asa much more energy efficient means oftransporting goods in bulk than by road. In2005–2006 freight carried on inland waterwaysincreased by 10 per cent.

Some years ago the concept of a contour canalwas broached, following a single contour down the

centre of England.As such it would be free of locksand could be designed to permit high speed travelfor broad beam barges – about 10 knots. It couldbegin at Leeds with branches to Sheffield, Derby,Nottingham,Leicester,Northampton and Bedfordand linking into the Thames.

Hybrid technology is ideally suited to canaltransport. Battery/petrol or diesel hybrid enginescould be recharged or refuelled at quaysides orlocks. As with car projects like the GM Volt, thepetrol engine would only be used to maintainthe charge in the batteries. Unlike cars, theweight of lithium-ion batteries would not be aproblem for barges. Barges would be well suitedto electric propulsion, either by battery or fuelcells.The EEStors battery system would seem tobe appropriate. Rapid recharging could occur enroute as necessary.The charging points could beserved by PV cells.

The fuel cell barge has already arrived in theshape of the ‘Ross Barlow’ (Figure 15.7).As partof the Protium Project, Birmingham UniversityFuel Cell researchers have converted a canalnarrow boat donated by British Waterways tofuel cell propulsion. In place of the diesel enginethere is a proton exchange membrane fuel cellwith its hydrogen stored in metal hydridecylinders at room temperature and 10 barpressure. The metal hydride powder weighs130kgs and the hydrogen is released bydecreasing the pressure. This system enables thePEM fuel cell to receive ultra-pure hydrogen –essential for extending the life of the fuel cell.

Congestion is beginning to encouragepassenger transport to expand along the tidalThames. It could be massively increased, offeringreductions in journey times, for example, fromTeddington via Westminster to the City, TateModern or Docklands. If the 200,000 homesmaterialize in the Thames Gateway, that is anotherpotentially lucrative commuter opportunity.

Shipping

Carbon emissions from shipping do not comewithin the Kyoto agreement. Nor is there a




proposal from the European Commission tointroduce legislation to rectify the situation.Yetvarious studies show that maritime carbondioxide emissions are not only higher thanearlier thought, but could rise by as much as 75 per cent in the next 15–20 years if worldtrade picks itself up from the recession andgrowth accelerates on the rebound.At the end of2007 carbon emissions from shipping weredouble those of aviation.There is every reason tobelieve that, from 2010, the rate of increase willbe restored.

Whilst the focus has been on aviation,shipping has quietly been transporting 90 per cent of world trade; double thepercentage of the 1980s. According to theTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research:‘The proportion of [greenhouse gas] emissionsfrom international shipping continues to receivescant regard within government. Shipping hasbeen missed off the climate change agenda.’The Tyndall Centre is currently undertakingresearch into shipping emissions (report in theGuardian, 3 March 2007).

The air industryIt is likely that the major victim of the demise offossil fuels will be the aircraft industry. It hasbeen said that for an aircraft to be able to crossthe Atlantic fuelled by hydrogen would meanthat the entire fuselage would have to be ahydrogen store. Biofuels are probably the onlyhope for a much slimmed-down industry. Maybehelium-filled airships will return to favour.

Hydrogen will be the ultimate engine of theworld economy.Advances in battery technologymay delay its advance, but its final triumph isinevitable. The challenge will be to make it anaccessible source of power to the least developednations as well as the economies of the West.

What can be done?If transport were to face the real costs of theenergy it uses, this would concentrate minds tolook for alternatives. Ultimately solid oxide fuelcells may be the answer since the requirement

Source: Courtesy of the University of Birmingham

Figure 15.7 The ‘Ross Barlow’ fuel cell powered narrow boat



is for mainly steady power output, with thebonus of usable heat. Alternatively, shippingcould be the main beneficiary of the bulkproduction of biodiesel from microalgae, sinceland transport will have access to electricity ina variety modes.

An emerging technology that might avoidthe cost-effectiveness trap is under developmentby ‘Skysail’, a company established in Germanyin 2001. It seems counter-intuitive for themassive freighters that populate oceans.However, Skysail has developed a computerizedsystem that controls the launch and recovery ofa massive wing-like sail the size of a soccer pitch.Launch and recovery takes 10 to 20 minutes.Thecomputer controls its flight path and altitude,which are calculated to maximize wind strength.It operates not only downwind but also up to 50degrees variation to the direction of the wind. In

addition, the shape of the sail was engineered toensure the ship remains on an even keel. Basedon the 2007 oil price, Skysail claims that thepayback time is 3–5 years. Perhaps the world ison the verge of a new age of sail!

For all renewable technologies the yardstickof cost-effectiveness will continue to underminetheir uptake until costs factor-in the global valueof avoided carbon emissions and the rising priceof oil and gas as reserves decline.The problem isthat having left the uptake of new technologiesto market forces will mean that we have leftthings too late.

Note1 A general description of fuel cells is given in

Smith (2007, ch. 7).


If it seems that the climate countermeasuresrecommended in this book are based on a highlypessimistic view of the likely progress of globalwarming, then the Copenhagen conference ofclimate scientists held in March 2009 should act as a corrective. The 4°C average globaltemperature rise, which was the precautionaryoutcome underlying the book, was, at the start ofwriting, a possible but unlikely scenario. Now ithas graduated from the possible to the probable.Speaking at the Copenhagen conference,Nicholas Stern admitted that his 2006 report wastoo conservative and that policymakers shouldbe thinking about the likely impact of severetemperature rises of 6°C or more. Stern stated:‘Do the politicians understand … just howdevastating 4, 5, 6 degrees centigrade would be?I think not yet’ (Adam, 2009).

Both Stern, and Professor Bob Watson chiefscientist at Defra, warned that governments, atthe very least, need to prepare for a 4°C rise by2100. The conference heard that a 4°C risewould lead to the loss of 85 per cent of theAmazon rainforest and place up to 300 millionpeople at risk of coastal flooding each year.Thisechoes the concern expressed in February 2009by Dr Chris Field co-chair of the IPCC that, iftropical forests ‘dry out just a little, the result canbe very large and destructive wildfires. It isincreasingly clear that, as you produce a warmerworld, lots of forest areas that had been acting ascarbon sinks could be converted to carbonsources’. The result could lead to runawaywarming (reported in the Guardian, 16 February2009). Chris Field will oversee the next IPCCreport in 2014. How flammable forests can be

was demonstrated in 2008–2009 in the bush firesin southwest Australia.

So, is the writing already on the wall or canhuman ingenuity devise adequate geo-engineering solutions? In Chapter 1, JamesHansen of NASA was quoted as expressing theview that the challenge is not merely to stabilizethe concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere butsignificantly reduce the concentration. How canthis be done?

A paper by Professor Tim Lenton and NemVaughan of the University of East Anglia (UEA)making a comparative assessment of the climatecooling potential of various geo-engineeringschemes was published on 28 January 2009.Among the schemes considered were nutrientfertilization of the oceans by seeding with ironfilings; sunshades in space, stratospheric aerosolinjections and ocean pipes. According to Lenton,‘The realisation that existing efforts to mitigate theeffects of human induced climate change areproving wholly ineffectual has fuelled a resurgencein geo-engineering… This paper provides the firstextensive evaluation of their relative merits interms of their climate cooling potential and should help inform the prioritisation of futureresearch’ (Lenton and Vaughan, 2009). The keyfindings are:

• It would be possible for carbon sinks toreduce CO2 to pre-industrial levels by 2100,but only if combined with strong mitigationof CO2 emissions.

• Stratospheric aerosols and sunshades in spacehave the potential to cool the climate by2050, but also carry the greatest risks, not

16

The Thread of Hope


The Thread of Hope 167

least of how to arrest the process at the rightlevel of greenhouse gas concentration andavoid runaway cooling.

• Injections into the atmosphere of sulphateor other manufactured particles have themost potential to return the climate to itspre-industrial temperatures by 2050, but itwould have to be continually replenished,otherwise warming would rapidly return.

• Adding phosphorous to the ocean may havethe greater long-term cooling potential thanadding iron or nitrogen.

• There has recently been a suggestion thatroofs and facades of buildings should bepainted white to increase the albedo effectand compensate for shrinking snow and ice.The authors consider that this might havesome impact on the heat island effect butthe global effect would be minimal.

• Stimulating biologically driven increases incloud reflectivity is considered to beineffective, as are ocean pipes.

The most promising remedies are:

• reforestation on a massive scale;• the production of charcoal by burning bio-

waste at a very low oxygen level to producebio-char. This is ploughed into the fieldswhere the majority is converted to carbon.Only a small mount of CO2 is released inthe process. A new CHP plant at UEA isexploring this technology.

In conclusion Lenton states: ‘We found thatsome geo-engineering options could usefullycomplement mitigation, and together they couldcool the climate, but geo-engineering alonecannot solve the climate problem (Lenton andVaughan, 2009).

James Lovelock dismisses the idea thatsequestering carbon can stabilize CO2 emissionsat an acceptable level calling it ‘a waste of time’although he does endorse the UEA report inone respect: ‘There is one way we could saveourselves and that is through the massive burialof charcoal. It would mean farmers turning alltheir agricultural waste – which carbon that theplants have spent the summer sequestering – intonon-biodegradable charcoal [or char] and

burying it in the soil.Then you can start shiftingreally hefty quantities of carbon out of thesystem and pull the CO2 down quite fast.’

From geo-engineering togeopoliticsWriting at a time of world recessionunprecedented in its suddenness and scale, thebook has to conclude with a consideration of the possible impact on climate change policies.The hope is that investment in greentechnologies on the demand and supply sides willbe the engine of recovery.The immediate threatto economic survival is in danger of displacingthe longer term threat that James Lovelock hasspelled out. Beyond the Copenhagen conferencethere is a growing consensus that the globalaverage temperature rise will be around 4°C by2100.‘Then’, said Lovelock in an interview in theGuardian newspaper (Lovelock, 2008), ‘thebiggest challenge will be food’. He predicts that‘about 80%’ of the world’s population will bewiped out by 2100.

The sub-prime crisis originating in the UShas taught us how rapidly stable situations cancollapse into chaos.What started in the rarifiedworld of money has now spread to everycomponent of life, embracing the developing aswell as the developed countries. The forecast isthat it could be the 2030s before there is areturn to stability. It will be a very different kindof stability. At first it was thought that thesudden economic instability was an episode ofpassing turbulence; now it is perceived as aphenomenon of historic magnitude. It seems wehave been living on borrowed time as well asmoney.

The economic slide has demonstrated thatglobalization has its downside.There is no roomfor redundancy, that is, reserve capacity. Onceglobal society develops beyond a certain level ofcomplexity it becomes increasingly fragile.‘Eventually it reaches a point at which a minordisturbance can bring everything crashing down’(Bar-Yam, 2008). So, a local hiccup in Wall Streetand, in no time, the world is in free fall.

Ecologists are familiar with the problem. It isthe nature of cycles in ecosystems to become



ever more complex and rigid. Equilibrium ispreserved within a normal range of conditions,but is overturned when there is a cataclysmicevent like a forest fire, drought or insectinfestation. The old ecosystem collapses, to bereplaced by a newer, less complex ecosystem.

Part of the reason for the apparentimpotence of governments in the face of aninternational crisis is that globalization has led tothe erosion of their power in the face of multi-national corporations. These are where the realwealth and, therefore, power resides: transnationalcorporations like energy companies, Tesco,Microsoft or Tata in India and, until recently, thesecretive world of hedge funds. Companies withshareholders demand quick returns on capital,driven by quarterly accounting and performancereviews. Governments are also infected by short-termism with the result that investment inrenewable energy and radical demand sidemeasures has been minimal compared with themagnitude of the threat facing society.

In the UK this has had an effect on itstransition to renewable energy. Its feebleperformance so far is due to the fact that it has

focused on wind energy, which, of all thetechnologies, offers reasonably quick returns oncapital due to subsidies and despite an overallload factor of a mere 28 per cent. Higher capitalcost but much higher energy densitytechnologies like tidal power remain subjects fordiscussion rather than action.The reason is that atechnology with a long lead time but long lifeexpectancy does not produce the required rapidreturns. The sure way to appear justified inavoiding such technology is to make it cost-ineffective by imposing a high discount rate(Figure 16.1).

Michael Grubb drew attention to thisanomaly in 1990, pointing out that the SevernBarrage, ‘Assessed at a 2 per cent discount ratewould be a bargain; at a market rate, it ishopelessly uneconomic.’ He goes on to say that‘the environment is clearly a limited anddeteriorating resource … in environmentalterms, our descendants will be considerablypoorer than we are today. That being so, weshould consider a negative discount rate [my italics]at least for valuing endangered environmentalassets’ (Grubb, 1990).

Source: Department of Energy and Boyle (2004)

Figure 16.1 Cost versus discount rate, the Severn Barrage

20

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

4 6Discount rate/%

8 10 12 14

Uni

t cos

t of e

nerg

y/ p

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The Thread of Hope 169

Since this was written the perceivedconsequences of climate change have grown byorders of magnitude.Yet, while governments arestubbornly committed to the principle that themarkets rule, such technologies with initial highcost but long life, look like having little chanceof succeeding.

The global credit crisis reached its climax in2008–2009. The result has been that climatechange issues have slipped down the agenda ofpriorities. In the long term this may not bewholly unfortunate. It has administered aprofound shock, not only to the world ofeconomics, but also to industries affected byreverberations from the crisis. It has fracturedlong-standing certainties. It may even haveundermined the belief that the Earth is infinitelybountiful. Perhaps it is dawning on politicalleaders that survival will depend on theacceptance that there will have to beretrenchment; that sustainable development iscompatible with maintaining a steady stateregarding the world’s natural resources.

One positive result of the ‘crunch’ is that theslowdown in manufacturing may cause atemporary reduction in CO2 emissions.However, remembering the time lag betweenemissions and their climatic consequences, theworld may not record the dip in emissions untilaround 2040. By then the CO2 concentrationwill almost certainly be well past the tippingpoint of 450ppm and the 2°C averagetemperature rise leading to devastating impactsfrom climate change.

Gus Speth, former head of the UNEnvironment Agency, is forthright in his verdict:‘My conclusion is that we’re trying to doenvironmental policy and activism within asystem which is simply too powerful. It is today’scapitalism with its overwhelming commitmentto growth at all costs, devolution of tremendouspower into the corporate sector and its blindfaith in a market riddled with externalities.’ Heconcludes that the fault lies in ‘our patheticcapitulation to consumerism’ (Speth, 2008).

The ‘credit crunch’ has additionally obscuredthe fact that there is also an evolving crisis inenergy, temporarily shielded by a drop in price.As demand for fossil fuels increasingly overtakes

the level of reserves, renewables will not be anoption but a dire necessity.This global jolt to thesystem should persuade both the politicians andmanufacturers that economic revival should bespearheaded by a global shift into renewableenergy. This could reveal a picture of a world that can live within its regenerative capacity,including energy.

The cardinal lesson from the Stern Report of2006 was that the cost of stabilizing the climatewill be considerable, but still only a fraction ofthe cost of inaction. This applies whether it isbuilding a new barrage in the Thames Estuary toprotect against rising sea levels and storm surges,or designing buildings to withstand the worst offuture climate impacts. To build precautionarymeasures into structures now will be much morecost-effective than waiting until after the event.

There may be cries of outrage from theconstruction industry and estate agents, whoare both wedded to short-termism.Interestingly, house builders have not been upin arms against the Code for SustainableHomes. This is doubtless because the levels ofinsulation and heat recovery erquired under theCode can be achieved relatively cheaply withtimber frame and panel construction, theelements of which can be manufactured offsite.House building has become a ‘kit-of-parts’operation. Include regulations that demandhigh levels of thermal mass to make lifebearable in torrid summers, and there will beresounding protests if this involves heavyweightconstruction methods.

This is not mere speculation since housebuilders have made this kind of protest in thepast. Most of the building regulations that set thethermal standards for housing are in Part L. Inthe 1980s and 1990s, each time Part L wasreviewed and upgraded in draft, the RoyalInstitute of British Architects (RIBA) madestrong recommendations for improvements inthermal standards that were oftensympathetically received by civil servants. In theevent it was most likely the politicians who,bowing to pressure from the industry, caused therecommendations to be watered down.

Climate science elder statesman JamesLovelock believes it is already too late to



prevent a catastrophic outcome. ‘Globalwarming has passed the tipping point andcatastrophe is unstoppable.’ He concludes:‘Enjoy life while you can. Because, if you’relucky it’s going to be 20 years before it hits thefan’ (Lovelock, 2008). As far as the builtenvironment is concerned, therefore, it could

be that the die is already cast. If so, nothing wedo from now on will prevent massiveperturbations of climate. On the balance ofprobabilities, we should design our buildingsand infrastructure accordingly.

We will never know if Lovelock was right,but our grandchildren surely will.


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Rogers, David, (2007) Statement before the Sub-Committee on Energy and Air Quality,Committee on Energy and Commerce, US Houseof Representatives, May



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Sharples, S., Smith, P.F. and Goodacre, C. (2001)‘Measures to improve the energy efficiency of thehousing stock in England and Wales by 2010’,School of Architecture, Sheffield

Shaw, Robert (2007) Adapting to the Inevitability of the40 degree C city, London, Town and CountryPlanning Association

Shaw, Robert, Colley, Michelle and Connell, Richenda(2007) Climate Change Adaptation by Design:A Guidefor Sustainable Communities,TCPA, London, p18

Smith, Peter F. (1983) ‘Saved in the nick of time’, NewScientist, 24 November

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Smith, Peter F. (2001) ‘Existing housing: the scope fora remedy’, lecture delivered at Royal Institute ofPublic Health, 26 October

Smith, Peter F. (2004) ‘Eco-refurbishment – a guide tosaving and producing energy in the home’,Architectural Press, London

Smith, Peter F. (2005) Architecture in a Climate ofChange, 2nd edn,Architectural Press, London

Smith, Peter F. (2007) Sustainability at the Cutting Edge, 2nd edn,Architectural Press, Oxford

Speth, Gus (2008) ‘Swimming upstream’, NewScientist, 18 October, pp48–49

Sterl, A., Severijns, C., Dijkstra, H., Hazeleger,W., Janvan Oldenborgh, G., van den Broeke, M., Burgers,G., van den Hurk, B., Jan van Leeuwen, P. and vanVelthoven P. (2008) ‘When can we expectextremely high surface temperatures?’, GeophysicalResearch Letters, vol 35, pL14703

Stern, N. (2006) The Economics of Climate Change, HMTreasury and Cabinet Office, CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK

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David Wasdell (2006) ‘Climate feedback dynamics: a complex system model’, MeridianProgramme

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References 173


abatement rates 122–123ABI (Association of British Insurers) 10AC/DC appliances 48Adam, D. 166adaptation to climate change 8–9Adapting to Climate Change in England (2008, Defra)

1, 10additionality 23–25aesthetic quality 93, 103, 108, 117affordability 37, 40, 73Africa 7, 9, 18, 24, 119, 121

drought in 14solar power in 146–147

agricultureand flooding 15–16urban 72

AHU (air handling unit) 96, 103, 106, 108Ainger, Katherine 25air conditioning systems 44, 50–51, 103aircraft industry 23, 26, 122, 164air handling unit see AHUair tightness 18, 34, 36, 39, 45, 50, 74, 89, 94, 107algae oil 157ammonia 157Anderson, Kevin 5–6Anderson, Stuart H. 150Antarctica 3, 7, 16, 19apartment blocks 64, 91–92appliances 48, 138, 140aquifer heat storage 61Archimedes screw 69–70Arctic ice 2–4, 9, 20ASCCUE project 77ASHPs (air source heat pumps) 69Asia 7, 18, 119, 121Association of British Insurers (ABI) 10Atelier Ten 45, 74Atkins 21, 27Atlantic Ocean 11, 13Attrill, Philip G. 125Aurora Borealis 130–131Australia 7, 9, 18, 56, 147, 166Austria 71

Autonomous House (UK) 27–30awareness programmes 13

BAS (British Antarctic Survey) 3BASF Passivhaus (Nottingham, UK) 38–39batteries 142–144, 158, 160–163

advances in 162–163BaU (Business as Usual) 10, 13, 20, 42, 119BedZed development (London, UK) 33, 36, 45Beijing see Centre for Efficiency in BuildingBenn, Hilary 1Betts, Richard 9bioclimatic architecture 98biodiesel 71, 136, 165biodiversity 73, 108, 114biofuels 24, 70, 137, 158biomass energy 53, 71, 89, 137

hydrogen from 154Bioregional 74, 82BMSs (building management systems) 99, 103,

108BMW 155, 158, 162Boardman, B. 88Boscastle (UK) 10, 14Boulder (Colorado, US) 140Bows,Alice 5–6BRE (Building Research Establishment) exhibition

(2007) 36–38, 44BREEAM (BRE Environmental Assessment

Method) 33, 47, 95Schools 111–113

Britaincarbon reduction targets 60, 122, 124, 141, 153Climate Change Bill 122conventional energy sector in 120–122Crown Estate of 93eco-towns in 72–77, 82energy gap in 53national grid in 53–54tidal impoundment in 150–151tidal power in 148–152wind power in 64–65, 140–143, 168zero carbon homes in 33–40

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British Antarctic Survey (BAS) 3Buchanan, Peter 109building design 18, 20–21building management systems see BMSsbuilding regulations 74, 87, 169

and non-domestic buildings 95, 111, 117and rising temperatures 18, 20roofs 43–44

Burke,Tom 24, 124–125Business as Usual see BaU

calcium silicate blocks 31–32Camden (London, UK) 91Canada 7, 137, 148canals 163–164carbon budgets 25–26carbon capture and storage see CCScarbon emissions reduction target see CERTcarbon footprint 73–75, 93carbon neutrality 41carbon storage 133–134carbon tax 26carbon trading 22–26

additionality and 23–25and buildings 25–26criticisms of 23–25, 106future of 25offset income in 23and transport 26

cars 157–163batteries for see batteriesCO

2 emissions by 158hybrid 158hydrogen-powered 155ownership 31, 72, 74, 82

car-sharing 74cavity wall insulation 83, 86CBI (Commercial Buildings Initiative, US) 93CCS (carbon capture and storage) 53, 122,

132–134, 136cricics of 134retrofitting 134types of 132–133

CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) 22–24Central America 9, 18central heating 86central solar heating plants for seasonal storage

(CSHPSS) 61–62Centre for Efficiency in Building (Beijing, China)

99–104

BMS in 103CHP system in 102insulation in 101PV system in 102–103roof 101ventilation in 101–103

Centrica 133–134CER (certified emissions reduction) 22–24CERT (carbon emissions reduction target) 86–88Chester (UK) 79China 6–8, 10, 82

and carbon trading 22–23coal consumption by 2, 122, 132electricity grid in 131fossil fuel demand in 2, 22–23, 93, 118–119,

121–122nuclear power in 124office building case studies in 99–103renewable energy in 23–24

CHP (combined heat and power) plants 33, 51,53, 69, 94

for offices 102–103Churchill Hospital (Oxford, UK) 109–111

GSHP in 69, 109, 111cities 75, 79–82Clarke, Keith 21, 27Clean Development Mechanism see CDMclean energy levy 106–107climate change see global warmingclimate modelling 14, 50climate-proof buildings 21, 27–40, 42–52

design determinants for 42–44CO

2 levels 4–6, 13, 20–21fossil fuels and 122, 132–133see also carbon trading

coal 132–136and carbon capture and storage see CCSand CO2 emissions 132, 134–135gas see syngasliquefaction of see CTLpeak 132power plants 2, 4, 22, 93, 122, 136reserves 121, 132–133

coastal erosion 14, 16, 19Code for Sustainable Homes see CSHco-generation plants 72combined heat and power plants see CHPcommunity buildings 109

sustainable design indicators for 116–117see also hospitals; schools


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community participation 69, 71–72, 153concentrated solar power see CSPconstruction materials 29, 31–32, 43, 72, 74

local/sustainable 109, 117recycled 96, 98, 108

cookers/cooking 37, 71, 76, 91, 155Cool Earth Solar 147–148cooling systems 44–45, 50–52, 96, 107, 113,

117, 138neighbourhood scale 77–78, 80

COP (co-efficient of performance) 68, 105–106Copenhagen conference (2009) 166–167coronal mass ejection 131Cox, Peter 8Crown Estates 93, 141CSH (Code for Sustainable Homes, UK) 33–36,

38–40, 42, 51, 53and eco-towns 74levels/categories of 33–36

CSHPSS (central solar heating plants for seasonalstorage) 61–62

cSi (crystalline silicon) cells 54–55CSP (concentrated solar power) 144–146

and energy storage 145horizontal 146

CTL (coal to liquid) technology 134–135

dams 13–14, 23–24Denmark 61, 138–140desertification 7–8dessicant dehumidification 50–52developing countries

CO2 emissions of 21, 118

nuclear power in 127–128solar power in 146–147

disabled access 47DoE (Dept. of Energy, UK) 93–94doors 44, 47, 49–50drainage 46draught exclusion see air tightnessdrought 10, 14, 19, 42, 105Dunster, Bill 33–34, 109

EarthEnergy 68, 111eco-cities 79–82economic crisis 167–169economic growth 118, 130eco-renovation see renovation/upgradingEcostar Scoping Model 150eco-towns 44, 71–82

aims of 72, 76British 72–77, 82carbon footprint in 73–75criticisms of 74–76government requirements for 73–74solar power in 72

education see schoolsEESoP (Energy Efficiency Standards of

Performance) 87EEStors battery system 162–163electricity grid 53

exports to 29, 31, 55smart 140space/weather threats to 130–131super 146

electricity storage 140–143, 145flow battery technology 143

electrolysers 142–143, 154–156Elkins, Paul 87–88El Niño 11Emissions Trading Scheme see ETSemployment 73, 88energy bridge 148–149energy demand, global 137–139energy efficiency 5, 49, 53–54

and aesthetic quality 93Energy Homes Project (Nottingham, UK) 38–40Energy Independence and Security Act (UK, 2007)

93–94Environment Agency 13environmental determinism 111EPCs (Energy Performance Certificates) 84–85,

87, 89, 93EPR (Evolutionary Power Reactor) 126–127EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences

Research Council) 86–88ESCOs (energy service companies) 85–86EST (Energy Saving Trust) 54, 83, 85, 153ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme, EU) 22, 24–25,

106Europe 18, 46, 69

heatwaves in 17solar radiation in 54, 59solar thermal power in 61, 146storms in 11–13storm surge risk in 17wind power in 140

European Union (EU) 6, 20CO

2 emissions in 93Energy Performance in Buildings Directive 85

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ETS 22, 24–25renewable energy target 60

extinctions 41–42

Faber Maunsell 94feedback systems 7, 20Field, Chris 2, 166Finland 126–127Fischer-Tropsch process 134–135FITs (feed-in tariffs) 24, 55, 72, 125, 144, 147floating homes 48flooding 1, 9, 41–42

in Britain 10, 13–16, 19, 48and building design 40, 46–48, 96, 99, 103–105,

117costs of 14–15, 46Foresight Future Flooding Report (2004)

14–15and insurance 10, 15Pitt Review on 13

flood plains 13, 19, 43, 45–46flood protection 46–50, 96, 99, 103–105, 117

incentives 46floors 34, 36–40, 43, 49

heating/cooling systems in 103, 109, 114–116insulating 89, 91ventilation in 96, 99–101, 103, 108

flow battery technology 143, 145food production 42Fordham, Max 98Foresight Future Flooding Report (2004) 14–15fossil fuels 31, 118–122, 137

carbon emissions from 6peak oil 118, 120–122reserves 42, 118, 121–122, 134Tyndall remedy for 122see also coal

France 12–13, 43Fraunhofer Institute 31, 57, 71, 155Freiburg (Germany) 31–33, 71–72fridge-freezers 23, 91Friedrichshafen (Germany) 61–63fuel cells see hydrogen fuel cellsfuel poverty 68, 86, 88–89

G8 countries 5, 60Galveston (Texas, US) 11gasification plants 71General Motors (GM) 161–162geo-engineering solutions 166–170geomagnetic storms 131

geo-politics 167–170geothermal power 137

see also GSHPsGermany 31–33, 55, 61–62, 69, 133, 140

energy standard in 72FIT in 147, 153Renewable Energy Law in 72see also Passivhaus

Gibb, Fergus G.F. 125Gillott, Mark 39–40GIS (Greenland ice sheet) 2, 4, 7Glancey, Jonathan 7, 109global energy intensity 5globalization 167–169global warming 1–21

4º scenario 6–9, 42, 166four scenarios of 41–42future impacts of 10–21geo-engineering solutions for 166–170and geo-politics 167–170and global heating 6and heatwaves 17–19impact in UK of 17–19and peak/average temperatures 18–19underestimates of 2

Gloucestershire (UK) 10, 13, 48GM Volt 160Gobi Desert 147Gorlov,Alexander 149Gorlov helical rotor 149–150Gratzel PV cells 56gravel/water heat storage 61Green, C. 5greenhouse gases 4–5, 23Greenland 7, 19green space 73, 77, 79Greenspan,Alan 118, 121grey water 30, 39, 74, 117Groundsure Flood Forecast 14Grubb, Michael 168GSHPs (ground source heat pumps) 33, 38, 40,

50, 68–69, 137in non-domestic buildings 69, 103, 107–109,

111, 116–117Gussing (Austria) 71

Hammarby Sjostad (Sweden) 72, 74Hansen, James 2, 4–7, 134, 166Hanson 2 house 36–37, 43, 45hard to treat (HTT) dwellings 83, 87Hawkridge House (University College, London) 92


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health 20, 73, 88, 91, 126HeatGen heat pumps 68–69heating requirements 60heating systems 83, 86, 91, 113, 117, 138

biomass 89open fires 89see also GSHPs

heat island effect 19–20, 78–79, 167heat pumps, ground source see GSHPsheat-reflective surfaces 39, 44, 77heatwaves 17–19, 44–45Heelis Building (Swindon, UK) 97–100

car park 99construction materials for 98–99flood defence in 99POE of 99PV system in 98ventilation in 98–99

HES (high emissions scenario) 10, 14, 19–20, 77HFC-23 23HHP (Hockerton Housing Project, Notts, UK)

30–31, 64Hirsch, Robert 118–120historic houses 88–89Holdren, James 4–5homeowners 86–87Honda FCX Clarity 159–160hospitals 69, 93, 109–111hot-water storage 61–62hot water systems 32, 53, 60, 62, 64, 138Houghton, John 75house orientation 44, 54–55, 77housing stock 40, 42, 83–92

carbon reduction targets for 83–85demolition policy 83, 87and fuel poverty 86policy imperatives for 86–87refurbishment of see renovation/upgrading

Howe Dell Primary School (Hatfield, UK)113–115

HTT (hard to treat) dwellings 83, 87Hubbert Peak 118, 120humidity control 50–52hurricanes 10–11, 43Hutton, John 120hybrid vehicles 157hydride storage tanks 156–157hydroelectricity 23–24, 137

small-scale generation 69–70hydrogen fuel cells 32, 142–143, 154–156,

158–160, 163

ITM Power type 155–156PEM type 155, 163SOFC type 156

hydrogen production 154hydrogen storage 156–157, 160

hydride tanks 156–157

ice cores 4, 16ICE (internal combustion engine) 158–159ice shelves/sheets 3–4IEA (International Energy Agency) 60, 118,

137–138IGCC (integrated gasification combined cycle)

135–136IHT (interseasonal heat transfer) 114–115India 2, 6

coal demand in 122, 132extreme weather events in 10fossil fuel demand in 23, 93, 118nuclear power in 124

industrial premises 93Innovate Green Office (Thorpe Estate, Leeds, UK)

95–97insulation 18, 38, 45, 83, 86

from recycled materials 101ground floor 89of offices 96, 101, 103, 107–108U-values 27, 29–32, 39

insurance 10, 15, 45–46, 50integrated design 27integrated gasification combined cycle see IGCCinternal combustion engine (ICE) 158–159International Energy Agency see IEAInternet 93interseasonal heat transfer (IHT) 114–115IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change) 1–5, 9, 20–21, 25, 42IT equipment 93–94, 98, 106ITM Power 155–156

Japan 11, 77Jenkins, Simon 75jet stream 15, 42Jubilee Wharf (Penryn, Cornwall) 109–110

Katrina, Hurricane 11Kendall, Gary 160King, David 6, 14, 16Korea 149Kyoto Protocol 22–24, 163

see also carbon trading

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landlords/tenants 85–88landscaping 99, 116, 117Leeds (UK) 82–83, 95–97, 163Lee, Kitack 6Lenton,Timothy 2, 166Lewes (East Sussex, UK) 77lifestyle 31, 72, 76lighting 33, 35–36, 74, 107, 138

low energy systems 38, 86, 88, 94, 103natural 37, 94–96, 98, 111, 114, 117

Liverpool (UK) 64, 83, 112–113local authorities 85–86, 117

see also community buildingsloft insulation 83, 86, 88–89Lohmann, Larry 22London (UK) 14, 16–17, 19

heat island effect in 78Lovelock, James 20, 106, 126, 153, 167, 169–170Lynas, Mark 8, 20

Mackay, David 54, 64, 153McNully, Patrick 23Manchester (UK) 19, 59, 69, 77, 95Masdar City (Abu Dhabi) 79–82Meacher, Michael 128–129methane 7, 42Met Office 9, 13–14, 17, 44microalgae 157, 165micro-fuel cells 69Middle East 7, 82, 119migration 7Miliband, David 25Miliband, Ed 132monitoring 39, 51, 55, 74–75, 103, 115

NAS (National Academy of Science, US) 130–131National Trust 15–16, 88–89

HQ offices case study see Heelis BuildingNetherlands 12–13, 48, 55, 61, 143net zero carbon homes see zero carbon homesnet zero energy schemes 31New Mills (Derbyshire, UK) 69–70New York (US) 17NGOs (non-governmental organizations) 23–24,

94NHS (National Health Service) 111non-domestic buildings 93

carbon budget for 26CO

2 emissions by 93DoE programme for 93–94flood defences for 96, 99, 103–105, 117monitoring energy use in 103, 115

user-specific 117wind load factor in 108, 117see also community buildings; offices

Norfolk (UK) 15–16North Africa 146–147nuclear power 120–130, 137

advocates for 126carbon neutral myth of 122–123and carbon reduction targets 124costs of 123–124decommissioning plants 123–124, 127in developing nations 127–128and energy gap 124, 153fusion research 129–130health issues with 126market risks of 125plant construction times 124, 126–127reprocessing technology 124, 128skills shortage in 125and subsidies 123third generation (IIIG+) 126–128uranium for 123–124, 128–129

nuclear waste 121, 123, 125–126nuclear weapons 121, 124Nutall,Tony 92

OECD countries 119, 121, 124, 158ocean see seaoffices 64, 93–108

AHUs in 96, 103, 106BMSs for 99, 103, 108building regulations and 95case studies 95–107clean energy levy for 106–107CO

2 emissions sources in 93–95, 98,105, 138

construction materials for 98–99, 108energy use in 94–95flood defences for 99, 103–105heating systems in 96–97insulation of 96–97, 107–108lighting/shading in 97–98, 107low carbon measures for 94not user specific 117overheating in 95performance standards for 107–108POE of 99PV systems in 98, 102–103, 105roofs 98–99, 101, 103, 108solar thermal power for 103, 105ventilation in 94, 96–99zero carbon target for 94, 105–106


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Olkilouto nuclear plant (Finland) 126–127OPEC (Organization of Oil Eporting Countries)

118Opel/Vauxhall Ampera 160–161OpenHydro 151OTEC (ocean thermal energy conversion)

152–153overcladding 87, 89, 91–92Oxford Radcliffe Hospitals see Churchill Hospital

Pacific Ocean 11Parliamentary Committee on Climate Change 84Parry, Martin 20passive solar gain 46, 50passive ventilation 33–34, 77, 89, 109Passivhaus programme (Germany) 27–28, 32, 38, 72Patt,Anthony 146pavements/paving 46, 77–78, 80, 96PCMs (phase change materials) 45, 50, 104peak oil 118, 120–122PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane) fuel cell 155,

163Penryn (Cornwall, UK) 109phenolic foam insulation 89Philosophical Transactions A (Royal Society) 5Pielke, R. 5Pieper, E. 15Pitt, Michael 13PIV (Pujiang Intelligence Valley, China) 103, 105plasma 130–131platinum 154–155, 160plutonium 121, 124POE (post occupancy evaluation) 51, 99Portcullis House (Palace of Westminster, London)

93Power,Anne 75PPS (Planning Policy Statement) 73–74prefabrication 43–45Prince of Wales Architecture Institute 33public buildings see non-domestic buildingspublic health 20, 73, 88, 91, 126public transport 26, 72, 82, 155Pujiang Intelligence Valley see PIVpumped storage 141–142PV (photovoltaic) cells 7, 29, 31–32, 53–60, 137

area required for 146–147for community buildings 109, 113development of 55–58and eco-towns/-cities 72, 80efficiency/cost of 55–59future of 148

and hybrid technology 62–63, 68–69for offices 98, 102–103, 105plastic 57–58problems with 55–56retrofit building integrated 59roof-mounted 44, 50, 98storage technology for 64thin film technology 56, 147and UK targets 53and urban design 58–59utility-scale 144, 147–148

rainfall 9, 42, 46rainwater capture 29, 36, 38–39, 74, 88, 96

in non-domestic buildings 96, 103–114, 116recycling 96, 98refrigerators 23, 91, 140renewable energy 137–140

share of consumption 137–138utility-scale see utility-scale renewablessee also specific forms of renewable energy

renewable energy levy 51renovation/upgrading 58–59, 75–76, 85–92

benefits 88and CO

2 emissions 85, 88, 91–92costs 86–88, 92and employment 88of historic houses 88–89multi-storey 91–92of private rented homes 85–88of solid wall houses 89–91

risk assesment 6, 14, 16Rogers, David 93Rogers, Ian 24Rogers, Lord 75roofs 43–44, 50

gardens on 101, 103green 77–78, 116office 98–99, 101, 108wind turbines on 64–67

rooftop cowls 45Royal Society 5RSPB (Royal Society for the Protection of Birds)

148runoff 46RuralZed homes 33–36, 45Rutherford Appleton Laboratories (UK)

129–130

Sahara Desert 146St Francis of Assisi School (Liverpool, UK) 112–113

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St George’s School (Wallasey, Cheshire, UK) 111Saville (Spain) 144–145Scheer, Hermann 25Schmidt, Gavin 17schools 111–116

and building regulations 111energy monitoring in 115government aims for 111–112IHT system in 114–115lighting in 114renewable energy in 113–114, 116sustainable design indicators for 116–117ventilation in 111–113water conservation in 114, 116

seaCO2 absorbtion by 6–7, 41and OTEC 152–153surface temperature (SST) 11see also tidal power

sea level rise 2–5, 7, 11, 15–17, 19, 43self-sufficient housing 27–32

see also eco-townsSellafield (UK) 125–126Severn Barrage 148–149, 168Seville (Spain) 144–145shade 77, 80, 94, 98, 103, 117Shanghai (China) 103Sharman, Hugh 138–140, 160Sharrow School (Sheffield, UK) 115–116Shaw, Robert 18, 71, 79Sheffield (UK) 10, 13, 43, 69, 90, 115–116, 125shipping industry 122, 163–165single occupancy homes 83–84Skysail concept 165smart grid 140Smith, Rod 130social housing 40SOFC (solid oxide micro-fuel cell) 156soil 4, 41solar electricity see PV (photovoltaic) cellssolar gain 39, 46, 77, 96Solar House (Freiburg, Germany) 31–32solar radiation 6, 60

latitude/orientation/pitch factors 54–56Solarsiedlung (Freiburg, Germany) 32–33solar thermal power 33, 44, 50, 53, 60–64, 80

for community buildings 109, 113, 115, 117efficiency 60hybrid technology 62–63limitations of 60for offices 103, 105

storage of 61–62, 64–65see also CSP

solid wall insulation 89–91South America 7, 18, 24space heating 18, 29, 37, 53, 60–61, 68, 74, 76Spain 55, 144–146Speth, Gus 169SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios,

IPCC) 5, 9SST (sea surface temperature) 11Sterl,Andreas 18–19Stern, Nicholas 5, 10, 166Stern Report (2006) 5–7, 10, 169Stockholm (Sweden) 72Stoneguard House (Nottingham) 38–40storms 6, 10–13, 41

in Britain 12–13and building design 37, 40, 42–44, 47–50damage caused by 11in Europe 11–13scales of 10–11and sea temperatures 11

storm surges 15–17, 19, 40, 43Strahan, David 156structural strength 43, 50subsidies 72supercapacitator battery 162–163sustainable development 73, 130Sweden 61, 72syngas 134–136

tanking 47, 49, 89TCPA (Town and Country Planning Association)

17–18, 44, 74, 77TermoDeck system 96, 103, 108, 115terraced housing 84, 87–90

low energy 33, 67Thames Array 107Thames Barrage 17–18, 169Thames Estuary, wind power in 140–141Thames Gateway project 75, 107, 163thermal banks 115thermal lag 45thermal mass 45, 47, 50, 74, 117Thiesen, Peter 162–163Tickell, Oliver 24tidal power 137, 148–153

fence/bridge concept 148–149impoundment 150–151stream 150–151VIVACE project 151–152


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timber-framed buildings 50time lag factor 6TIM (transparent insulation material) 31tipping points 4toilets 74, 96, 114Torrs Hydro Scheme (Derbyshire, UK) 69–70Totnes (Devon, UK) 77Toyota Prius 157Transition Towns 77transport 26

energy requirement of 160water-based 163–164see also cars; public transport

trees 4, 41, 77, 108tri-generation systems 94Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

3–4, 7, 17, 54, 122, 164

UGC (underground gasification of coal) 136UHI (urban heat island) effect 19–20, 78–79UKCIP (UK Climate Impacts Programme) 5, 19UK-GBC (UK Green Building Council) 83–85Ultrabattery 162underground buildings 112–113United States (US) 6–7, 124, 130, 153, 158

coal in 132, 134design goals in 27economic crisis in 167hurricanes in 10–11nuclear power in 128solar power in 145–148targets in 93wind power in 140

Upton (Northampton, UK) 33, 46–47uranium 123–124, 128–129urban environment 20, 76

wind technology in 64–65see also eco-towns; UHI

urban heat island see UHIutility-scale renewables 137–153

OTEC 153solar power 144–148tidal power 148–152wind power 140–143

U-values 27, 29–32, 39, 45Vale, Robert and Brenda 29vanadium flow battery 143, 145vehicle ownership 31, 72, 74, 82ventilation 45, 60, 68

and cooking 91in floors 96, 99–101, 103, 108in offices 94, 96–99, 102–103, 117

passive 33–34, 77, 89, 109in schools 111–113, 117

VHC (volumetric heat capacity) 45Vince, Gaia 7–8VIVACE project 151–152VLS-PV (very large-scale photovoltaic systems)

147–148von Hippel, Frank N. 124

walls 36, 43, 45Wasdell, David 6waste 30, 74–75

nuclear 121, 123, 125–126water-based transport 163water conservation 88, 105, 117

see also rainwater capturewaterproofing 47water supply 19, 30, 77

rainwater harvesting 29, 36, 38–39Watson, Bob 6, 166wave power 137Welch, Dan 24Westinghouse AP1000 127–128wetlands 96, 104, 114whole systems engineering 27Wigley,T. 5wildlife and buildings 103, 108, 117Wilkins ice shelf 3wind breaks 44, 109wind load 44, 50, 92, 108, 117windows 33, 47, 77, 88

and BMSs 99quadruple-glazed 50and solar cells 57triple-glazed 27–28, 30–32, 38, 44, 46, 48, 72,

89, 107waterproofing 47, 49–50

window shutters 44, 50wind power 24, 60, 80, 137, 160, 168

and aircraft radar 141building-augmented 65–68for communuity buildings 109cost of 141and electricity storage 141–143intermittence of 140–141, 143limitations/viability of 64micro- 64–68for offices 105–106offshore 140–141for shipping 165utility level 140–143

wood-burning stoves 29, 89

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woodchip/biomass boilers 34, 38–39, 109World Energy Outlook 132–133WWF (Worldwide Fund for Nature) 12–13, 160

Younger Dryas cold period 4

Zedfactory 33, 109ZEH (zero-energy homes) 27

zero carbon homes 29, 33–34, 36–37cost of 37and eco-towns 73not enough 41UK target for 53unattainability of 70, 76

Zicer Building (University of East Anglia, UK) 93


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