Building Evidence for the Next Treatment Paradigm: Curing ... · CV death Illustration Adapted from...
Transcript of Building Evidence for the Next Treatment Paradigm: Curing ... · CV death Illustration Adapted from...
Building Evidence for the Next Treatment Paradigm:
Curing Atherosclerosis
Jennifer G Robinson MD MPHProfessor, Epidemiology & Medicine,
Director, Prevention Intervention CenterUniversity of Iowa
Iowa City. Iowa USA
Samuel Gidding MD
Disclosures
Jennifer G Robinson MD MPH has received in the past year:
Received research grants to Institution from Acasti, Amarin, Amgen, Astra-Zeneca, Esai, Esperion, Merck, Novartis, Novo-Nordisk, Pfizer, Regeneron, Sanofi, Takeda
Consultant for Amgen, Medicines Company, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Regeneron, and Sanofi
Gidding MD has received in the past year:
None
Why CURE atherosclerosis?
Can it be done?
Now is the time!
Why cure atherosclerosis• CVD remains the leading cause of death & major cause of
morbidity in US & globally• In 2015, 42% US population (100 million) have CVD• Eliminating major CVD would increase life expectancy by almost
7 years
• CVD #1 cause of healthcare expenditures• Total CVD costs expected to double by 2035 as population ages
• Curing atherosclerosis eliminates CVD• Within a generation – save $1.1 trillion/year
Mozaffarian D, et al. Circulation 2016; 133: e38-e360; Danaei G, et al. PLoS Med. PLoS Med. 2009;6:e1000058.; Heidenreich P, Trogdeon J, Khavjou O, et al. Circulation. 2011;123:933-944; Soni A. AHRQ statistical brief #331;www.meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/data_files/publications/st331/stat331.pdf; AHA technical report. Projections of cardiovascular disease prevalance and costs:2015-2035; Nov 2016.
Global CVD prevalence Age-standardized 2016
Benjamin E, et al. Circulation 2019; https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/CIR.0000000000000659
Lifestyle only partially attenuates genetic risk
Khera, A.V., et al., New England Journal of Medicine, 2016. 375(24): p. 2349-2358.
High burden of CVD events before age 65
Sniderman, A.D., et al., JAMA Cardiology, 2016. 1(4): p. 492-494.
A, Average primary annual incidence rates of coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, or intermittent claudication. B, Numbers of US residents without clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease represented in the 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. C, Percentage of the expected total of 930 621 annual primary events in men and 702 105 in women by age group.
ASCVD EVENTS
MI/Unstable
angina
Ischemic stroke/TIA
Critical leg
ischemia
Intermittent
claudication
CV death
Illustration Adapted from Libby P. Circulation. 2001;104:365-372; Robinson JG, Gidding SS. JACC. 2014;63(25, Part A):2779-2785; Robinson JG, Heistad DD, Fox KAA. Atherosclerosis, 2015. 243(2): p. 593-597.
Atherosclerosis progression with age
Start LDL-C lowering early to regress disease
“CURE”
LDL-C lowering started late
Large burden of atherosclerosisSTABILIZATION
Better paradigm: Treat the Disease = Atherosclerosisvs. Current paradigm: Prevent end-stage manifestations
Would you wait to treat hypertension until ESRD develops?
Apo B lipoproteins fundamental causal factor in atherosclerosis development & progression
Evidence from RCTs
Greater relative risk reductionStatins in Low Risk (eg younger) Individuals
But, CVD events still occur in low risk persons
*1 mmol/L (39 mg/dl) LDL-C reduction was the average in the primary prevention RCTs excluding JUPITERCTT Collaborators. Lancet 2012; 380: 581-590.
Loss of Function PCSK9 Mutations: Moderately Lower Lifelong LDL-C Levels Associated with Substantial Reduction in Incident CHD
Cohen JC. N Engl J Med 2006;354:1264-72.
30
20
10
0
PCSK9142x or PCSK9679X
No Yes
12
8
4
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
30
20
10
00 50 100 150 200 250 300
No Nonsense Mutation(N=3278) 50th Percentile
Plasma LDL Cholesterol in Black Subjects (mg/dL)
Freq
uenc
y(%
)
PCSK9142x or PCSK9679X
(N=85)
Cor
onar
y H
eart
Dis
ease
(%)
LOF PCSK9 mutations
88% lower risk of CHD
28 percent reduction in frequency
Despite same risk factor levels as those with functional PCSK9:
• Age 54 years• Male 31% • BMI 29.5• HDL-C 55 mg/dl• Hypertension
37%• Diabetes 13%• Smoking 27%
Cohen JC. N Engl J Med 2006;354:1264-72.
Implications of Cholesterol Genetics• Genetic variation largely determines LDL-C
• Low frequency large effect genes
• High frequency small effect genes
• Rare individuals have balancing genes
• Provides the rationale for benefit of lifelong low LDL-C and harm of lifelong high LDL-C
• 50% risk reduction/mmolL LDL-c reduction
• Consistent with clinical trial data suggesting greater effect with longer LDL lowering interventions
PCSK9 genetic risk scores and individual PCSK9 polymorphismsAssociation of LDL-C level and CHD risk
From Brian Ference with permission
PCSK9 LOF: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 loss-of-function mutationRobinson JG et al. Submitted; Adapted from Robinson JG, Gidding SS. JACC. 2014;63(25, Part A):2779-2785
New paradigm: Curing atherosclerosisResetting the (vascular aging) clock with intermittent treatment“Induction-maintenance” model of treatment/prevention for ASCVD
LDL-C/non-HDL-C - Necessary & Sufficient to cause atherosclerosis
Low LDL-C/non-HDL-C →Very low ASCVD risk
Homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, untreated→ 100% ASCVD risk before age 30
Navar-Boggin Am et al. Circulation 2015; 131: 451-458; Macciaiolo M, et al. Lancet 2012; 379: 1330; Goldstein JK, Hobbs HH, Brown MS. Familial hypercholesterolemia. In: Scriver CR, Beaudet AL, Sly WS, Valle D, editors. The metabolic basis of inherited disease. 8th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill; 2001. p. 2863-2913.
125 150 175 200Average non-HDL-C prior to age 55 years
Inflammation alone is insufficient for atherosclerosis development
• South American Tsimane• Lifestyle - hunting, gathering,
fishing, and farming along an Amazon River tributary
• Mean age 58
• Mean LDL-C 91 mg/dl
• Low rates hypertension, obesity
• 51% hs-CRP >3.0 mg/L
• 85% CAC = 0
• Age >75 years 65% CAC=0
Kaplan H, et al. Lancet 2018; 389:1730-39; https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Bolivias-Indigenous-Tsimane-Have-Worlds-Healthiest-Heart-20170317-0019.html
Atherogenesis: Response to retention of ApoBlipoproteins
Robinson JG et al. J AM Heart Assoc 2018; in press
Regressing earlier stages of plaque after dramatically lowering apoB lipoproteins
Robinson JG et al. J AM Heart Assoc 2018; in press
Risk factors exacerbate/accelerate atherosclerosis
Borén, J. and K.J. Williams, Current Opinion in Lipidology, 2016. 27(5): p. 473-483;
Why cure atherosclerosis
• Short term intensive treatment to regress atherosclerosis• Return artery to normal
• Normalize vascular function
• Avoid lifetime therapy• Intermittent less intensive therapy (every 10 years?) to maintain normal
vessel
• Address disparities
• Prevent hypertension?
Evidence that curing atherosclerosis is possible
Aggressive LDL-C lowering – Animal models
• LDL-C<30 mg/dl
• Complete regression early atherosclerosis
• Partially regress fibrotic, mature, advanced plaque
• More regression with functional HDL
Williams, K.J., et al. Nat Clin Pract Cardiovasc Med, 2008. 5: p. 91-102; Björkegren, J.L.M., et al.,. PLoS Genet, 2014. 10(2): p. e1004201; Miller, J.D., et al. Arterioscl Thromb Vasc Biol, 2013. 33: p. 459-465; Benzuly, K., et al. Circulation, 1994. 89: p. 1810-1818.
Tot Chol to 11-55 mg/dlat 30, 40, or 50 weeks
Earlylesions
Advanced lesions
Mature lesions
Similar findings for very low LDL-C levels in advanced human plaque• LDL-C reduction → Atheroma regression
• Changes in plaque composition
• Plaque stabilization
Nicholls, S.J., et al., JAMA, 2016. 316(22): p. 2373-2384; Kataoka, Y., et al., Curr Opin Endocrinol Diab Obes 2017. 24(2): p. 122-132; Williams KJ, et al. Nat Clin Pract Cardiovasc Med. 2008;5:91-102
OCT & Statin therapy (TCFA Thin cap atheroma volume)
Additional CVD Reduction from High Intensity Statins or PCSK-9i added to statins
Individual level meta-analysis adjusted for sex, age, smoking, diabetes, SBP, HDL-C
-56
-49
-44-42
-36
-29
<50 50-74 75-99 100-124 125-149 150-174 >175
Relative reduction CVD Risk by Achieved LDL-C level (mg/dl)
REF
Boekholdt SM, et al. JACC 2014; 64:485-494; Sabatine, M.S., et al., NEJM 2017; online ahead of print 10.1056/NEJMoa1615664.
FOURIER. Evolocumab vs placebo in very high risk patients treated with moderate-high intensity atorvastatin
Aggressive LDL-C lowering can normalize arterial function
• Humans • Statins modestly lower blood pressure in younger individuals
• Animal models• Endothelial dysfunction from prolonged hypercholesterolemia-
induced atherosclerosis is a result of abnormal nitric oxide responses
• Nitric oxide responses completely normalize with aggressive LDL-C lowering
Golomb BA, et al. Arch Intern Med. 2008;168:721-727; Miller, J.D., et al. Arterioscl Thromb Vasc Biol, 2013. 33: p. 459-465; Benzuly, K., et al. Circulation, 1994. 89: p. 1810-1818; .
Legacy effects in statin RCTsAll-cause mortality ASCOT: Atorvastatin vs placebo 3.3 y; 8 y FU Cardiovascular events WOSCOPS:
Pravastatin vs placebo for 5 y; 15 y FU
Ford I, et al Circulation 2016; 133: 1073-1080; Sever P, et al. Eur Heart J 2011; 32: 2525-2531
The Pathologic Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) study
1a
1b
Figure 1 Dark blood T2 weighted MRI Images of abdominal Aorta at two different locations.
Small arrows indicate normal vessel wall as barely seen thin structure.
Large arrow indicate diffused thicken vessel wall implying early atherosclerosis.
15-24 25-34
n=385
n=107
0-2 2-4 4-6 6-8 8-10 10+
Desirable
Undesirable
n=341
n=185
Risk Factor
Non-HDL cholesterol
n=398
n=94
n=421
n=105
HDL cholesterol
n=416
n=76
Normotensive
Hypertensive
n=433
n=93
Hypertension
n=436
n=56
Non-obese
Obese
n=448
n=78
Obesity
Age group, y
Desirable
Undesirable
Age (y)
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34
Surf
ace
Are
a In
volv
ed
(%
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 22
1 42
2 26
3 7
4+ 2
Risk FactorsNo. %
Right Coronary Artery Raised Lesions by Ageand Number of Risk Factors, Men
PDAY Risk Score CalculationStep 1. Calculate Score
Step 2: Look up probability
Prevalence of Raised Lesions in RCA by Risk Score
00-02 02-04 04-06 06-08 08-10 10 +
Risk Score N Raised Lesions
<05 348
06 – 10 314
11 - 15 320
16 + 384
Date of download: 3/13/2014Copyright © 2014 American Medical
Association. All rights reserved.
From: Risk Scores Predict Atherosclerotic Lesions in Young People
Arch Intern Med. 2005;165(8):883-890. doi:10.1001/archinte.165.8.883
Observed and estimated probability of target lesions by risk score in the coronary arteries for men (A) and women (C) and in the
abdominal aorta for men (B) and women (D). Probabilities are for groups of 3 integer values of the risk score, with the highest
category for each sex constructed to have at least 50 cases.
Figure Legend:
Gidding et al., Arch Intern Med 2006
PDAY Baseline Risk Score & 15 Year ChangeEffects on Odds Ratios for Coronary Calcification
Odds Ratios for Presence of Any CAC/point increase in PDAY score and c-statistic for likelihood of CAC presence at year 25by CARDIA Exam Year
Exam Year Presence of any CAC
(Odds Ratio)
c-statistic
0 1.29 (1.25, 1.33) 0.7315 1.26 (1.22, 1.29) 0.74010 1.20 (1.17, 1.23) 0.73115 1.17 (1.15, 1.19) 0.72320 1.16 (1.14, 1.18) 0.73025 1.12 (1.11, 1.14) 0.705
PDAY risk scores & atheroma probability
>40-60% probability
atheroma
>60% probability
atheromaMen Women Men
PDAY score 18-23 PDAY score >27 PDAY score >24Age 36-45 Age 41-45+obesity Age 36-45+obesityAge 30-35+obesity Age 36-40+obesity
+ non-HDL 130-189
(or hypertension or
HDL-C<40+smoking)
Age 30-35+
obesity+non-HDL-C
160-189 (or
hypertension)Age 20-
29+obesity+
non-HDL-C 130-
189 (or
hypertension)
Age 20-29+obesity+
Non-HDL-C 160-
189+hypertensionCARDIA
PDAY risk score & probability of coronary artery calcium
McMahan CA, et al. 2005;165(8):883-890. Gidding SS, et al. Circulation. 2016;133(2):139-146
FH as a model
Difference in mean carotid IMT and 95% confidence interval between FH children and unaffected siblings plotted versus age, adjusted for family relations
3/5/2020 44
Ultimate Modifier of FH – Early Lifelong Treatment
Prevalence Map of Raised Lesions of Right Coronary Artery by Age and Non-HDL Cholesterol
Non-HDL-C < 160mg/dL Non-HDL-C> 160 mg/dLAge
15-24
25-34
0-2 2-4 4-6 6-8 8-10 10+
n=531 n=159
n=523 n=277
Trials needed to determine if atherosclerosis can be cured• Why?
• CVD remains the leading cause of death & major cause of morbidity in US & globally
• In 2015, 42% US population (100 million) have CVD• Eliminating major CVD would increase life expectancy by almost 7 years
• CVD #1 cause of healthcare expenditures• Total CVD costs expected to double by 2035 as population ages
• Curing atherosclerosis could eliminate burden of ASCVD within a generation
• Within a generation – save $1.1 trillion/year
Mozaffarian D, et al. Circulation 2016; 133: e38-e360; Danaei G, et al. PLoS Med. PLoS Med. 2009;6:e1000058.; Heidenreich P, Trogdeon J, Khavjou O, et al. Circulation. 2011;123:933-944; Soni A. AHRQ statistical brief #331;www.meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/data_files/publications/st331/stat331.pdf; AHA technical report. Projections of cardiovascular disease prevalance and costs:2015-2035; Nov 2016.
Trial design for subclinical atherosclerosis in youth
DO-IT trial design
Subclinical Atherosclerosis ResearchStudy Design
FH Patients get a Subclinical Athero Measure
Test Positive Test Negative
Randomize by treatment intensity
Outcomes Chosen by AgeChange in Subclinical Athero Measure/Events/Cost/Safety are Outcomes
High intensity High intensity Lower intensityLower intensity
New paradigm: Curing atherosclerosis in adults
Robinson JG, Gidding SS. Curing Atherosclerosis Should Be the Next Major Cardiovascular Prevention Goal. JACC. 2014;63(25, Part A):2779-2785
Avoid lifelong treatment• Intermittent treatment as
needed • Minimal safety concerns• Recapitulate benefits of
lifetime low LDL-C • Low cost for lifetime
benefit
Necessary point: Lifestyle does not negate increased genetic risk of being human
Khera AV et al. N Engl J Med 2016;375:2349-2358.
10-Year Coronary Event Rates, According to Lifestyle and Genetic Risk
in 3 Prospective Cohorts
CURE ATHERO(CURing Early ATHEROsclerosis)
CCC: University of Iowa – Jennifer G Robinson MD MPH (PI)DCRI - Pamela Douglas MD (Co-I)
DCC: DCRI – Michael Pencina PhD (PI), Eric Peterson MD (Co-I)Clinical sites: University of Iowa, Duke University (Neha Pagidipati MD)CTA reading center: Mt Sinai – Zahi Fayad PhD (PI)
CURE ATHERO Study population• Healthy, men & women ages 25-55 years
• Overweight or obese with increased risk factor levels
• Significant burden uncalcified plaque (eg earlier stage atheroma)
• >40% probability of atheroma based on PDAY score*>25
• >80% power if randomize 130 subjects
• Subgroup & predictive analyses if randomize >800 subjects
* adapted for age up to 55 years
CURE ATHERO Randomized Interventions
• 3 years
• Usual care/control
• Intensive LDL-C reduction to 20-40 mg/dl• Statin
• PCSK9 inhibitor
• Ezetimibe
CURE ATHERO main objectives1. Characterize response to plan future imaging & CV outcomes trials
• Primary outcome• Percent regression low attenuation plaque volume (LAPV) from baseline
after 3 years by CTA
2. EMR prediction algorithm for accelerated atherosclerosis
CURE ATHERO• A pilot study: Identify “sweet spot” for atheroma regression &
stabilization• Clinical characteristics & CTA• Ancillary studies planned
• Genetics• Biomarkers & -omics• Imaging
• CTA perivascular fat attenuation index (PFAI) – inflammation• PET CT/MR - inflammation• 3D ultrasound – non-coronary arteries
• Address evidence gap: Epidemiology of atherosclerosis progression obese younger adults with risk factors
• Usual care group• Planned ancillary study: Screened but not randomized
Genetics for Risk Prediction
• Enhance screening efficiency
• Genetic risk scores• Minimal additional information over known risk factor levels
• Will likely be of most value for predicting more extreme manifestation in setting of more extreme exposure/environment
• Early onset – Susceptibility genes
• Late onset – Resilience genes
• Disease severity
Predicting premature CHD
https://www.nature.com/articles/gim201838
Genetics for Predicting Treatment ResponseGenetic risk score predicts CVD risk & risk reduction from statin treatment in middle-aged
individuals without clinical CVD and in those with clinical burden of CHD
Mega JL, et al. Lancet 2015; 385: 2264-2271
PCSK9 LOF: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 loss-of-function mutationRobinson JG et al. Submitted; Adapted from Robinson JG, Gidding SS. JACC. 2014;63(25, Part A):2779-2785
New paradigm: Curing atherosclerosisResetting the vascular aging clock with intermittent treatment
CURE ATHERO 1st trial
CV outcomes trial needed to establish “Induction/maintenance” model to prevent ASCVD
CVOT could be a feasible next step:Intensive LDL-C RRR 80%ASCVD event rate 0.2%/year or 1%/5 years5-year treatment periodN=8000 Power >99%
Shorter term imaging & CV outcomes trials are needed before genetic revolution can occur
HERE NOW: GENES AS DRUGS
https://www.apnews.com/4997bb7aa36c45449b488e19ac83e86dhttps://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/08/untold-story-circle-trust-behind-world-s-first-gene-edited-babieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-11/chinese-scientists-edit-dna-in-attempt-to-cure-man-s-cancer-hiv
GV leads $58.5M round for Verve, a startup looking to pit gene
editing against heart attacks by Amirah Al Idrus | May 7, 2019 6:00am
Verve Therapeutics is launching with $58.5 million and longtime cardiologist and geneticist Sekar Kathiresan at its helm. (Verve Therapeutics)
• 7 protective human LOF genes• Animal studies• Multiple gene editing approaches• Delivery vehicles TBD • https://www.vervetx.com/about-us/
Verve Therapeutics
https://www.vervetx.com/approach/
Our Ethical CommitmentAs we advance in our mission to develop therapies for adults at risk of heart disease, Verve will work in a manner that is consistent with the ethical and scientific frameworks set forth by leading professional societies, regulators, and biomedical ethicists.All of the therapeutics to be developed by Verve involve making edits in adult (somatic) cells, which are not passed down to offspring. We will not edit embryos, sperm cells, or egg cells.Safety is paramount for Verve. We will be implementing a rigorous safety protocol with the best available technology for detecting off-target effects. Verve has one of the world-leading experts on gene editing safety on our team, and our clinical development plan will proceed responsibly and transparently
Genes as drugs
• CRISPR-based technologies can add/remove snps or gene cassettes
• Requires gene target with high impact on disease development • HIV
• Sickle cell anemia, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs disease, etc.
• Apo B lipoproteins?
• Goal: Gene delivery to cells of target organ only• Limit off-target adverse effects
• Ethics: Alter somatic cell genes only• Does not affect germ-line (reproductive cells)
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/crispr-gene-editor-first-human-clinical-trials
• Important recent development: Reannealing DNA without errors
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614599/the-newest-gene-editor-radically-improves-on-crispr/
Gene-edited babies
• Congenital deafness• Embryo editing• In vitro fertilization
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6465/562/tab-pdf
https://unsplash.com/photos/-IMlv9Jlb24; https://www.brainfacts.org/in-the-lab/tools-and-techniques/2019/crispr-explained-071519
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