Building e-resilience – Enhancing the role of ICTs for ... e-resilience... · •China Unicom 87...
Transcript of Building e-resilience – Enhancing the role of ICTs for ... e-resilience... · •China Unicom 87...
ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Building e-resilience – Enhancing the role of ICTs for
Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in China
Peter Lange
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
What is e-resilience?
e-resilience is defined as the ability of a system to withstand, recover from and change in the face of an external disturbance (such as acute or chronic climate change). Resilience constitutes an important property of livelihood systems which, through a set of seven dynamic sub-properties (robustness, scale, redundancy, rapidity, flexibility, self-organisation and learning) can enhance adaptive capacity. E-resilience is a property of livelihood systems by which ICTs interact with a set of resilience sub-properties, enabling the system to adapt to the effects of climate change.
Source: Association for Progressive Communication (APC)
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Natural disasters in China
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atio
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isast
er R
educ
tion
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DRC
) 3
ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Population density
So
urce
: Enc
yclo
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ia B
ritan
nica
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Fibre optic backbone networks
Source: ITU
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Access network infrastructure in China
• 100% of China’s ‘administrative villages’ had voice telephony services by 2010
• 100% of towns were connected to the Internet, 98% through broadband
• Mobile network coverage is available to nearly 100% of the population
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Fixed-line access
• 232 million subscribers (2014) • China Telecom 145 million • China Unicom 87 million • 21 million public payphones
• Penetration • 18% of population (2006: 28%) • 48% of households (2005: 79%)
• 75% of subscribers use fixed broadband
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Fixed broadband
• Subscribers (2014) • DSL: 95 million (2012: 119 million)
• ADSL2+, VDSL • FttX: 68 million (growing at 67% p.a.)
• 90% business/public sector, 10% residential • Cable modem: 4 million
• 235 million cable TV subscriptions
• 20Mb/s available to 80% of urban population, 4Mb/s to 85% in suburbs
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Fixed broadband speed, download
Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Fixed broadband speed, upload
Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Fixed broadband speed improvement in China
Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
China’s mobile market
• 1.3 billion subscriptions (94% penetration) • GSMA: 630 million ‘unique’ subscribers
Operator Market share
2G 3G 4G
China Mobile
63% GSM TD-SCDMA
TD-LTE
China Unicom
23% GSM W-CDMA Hybrid FD/TD-LTE
China Telecom
14% CDMA 2000
EV-DO Hybrid FD/TD-LTE
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Transition from 2G to 3G and 4G
• China Mobile currently provides 4G coverage to
75% of the population. Urbanisation: 53%
Sour
ce: G
SMA
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Mobile broadband – speed, latency • 80% of unique mobile subscribers access
the Internet through their mobile device • Of these, 69% use 3G or 4G
Chi
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Sour
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pens
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l.com
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Mobile broadband – speed, latency
Chi
na Te
leco
m
Source: Opensignal.com
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Mobile broadband – speed, latency
• 3G speed below global average (1.8Mb/s) • Poor 3G/4G latency (should be 10…200ms)
Chi
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obile
HK
Sour
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pens
igna
l.com
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Fixed network latency
Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Packet loss
Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Fixed optic backbone networks and nodes
Source: ITU
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Mean server distance in speed/quality tests
Source: Based on UNESCAP, speedtest.net
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Network latency improvement
Source: UNESCAP, speedtest.net
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Packet loss improvement
Source: UNESCAP, speedtest.net
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Redundancy in the fibre optic backbone network
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ased
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ITU
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• Many routes are operated by one carrier only (China Telecom)
ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Internet interconnection points
• Beijing • Shanghai • Guangzhou
•New since 2014: • Chengdu • Xian • Wuhan • Shenyang • Nanjing • Chongqing • Zhengzhou
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
IPSTAR satellite coverage (China Telecom)
Source: IPSTAR
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
International submarine fibre optic cables
Source: cablemap.info
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
International submarine fibre optic cables
11 la
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able
map
.info
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
China’s International Internet bandwidth
Source: China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC)
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
International Internet bandwidth per Internet user
Rank (2012) Country/Territory Bandwidth (Kb/s) 1 Luxembourg 4091 2 Hong Kong 1240 … 46 Macau 58 … 52 Taiwan 44 … 134 Ethiopia 5 136 Mali 5 139 China 4
Source: Based on ITU
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
US$600 billion power grid upgrade by 2020 • West-East Electricity Transfer project
• US$100 billion Smart Grid technology will make the network more efficient, stable and resilient So
urce
: Ene
rgy
Tran
sitio
n Re
sear
ch In
stitu
te (E
NTR
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Trends in applications
• Space technology • Mobile and Cloud GIS • Open Source software • Social media and Big Data
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
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Active social media accounts in China
• e.g. Weibo users 2014: 500m registered, 176m monthly active (+36%), 81m daily active ( +31%)
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et
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Social media in DRM
• Early warnings, instructions • Very large user base • Sharing/forwarding • User ID independent of access medium
• Disaster relief • Appeals for donations, volunteers • Structured two-way communication • Crowd-sourced data
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
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What is Big Data?
Big Data is a popular term used to describe structured and unstructured data sets so large or complex that traditional data processing techniques and applications are inadequate. Challenges include capture, storage, transfer, sharing, search, visualisation, analysis and information privacy.
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Big Data in DRM
• Disaster events can be detected very quickly through systematic monitoring of Twitter data for relevant keywords and suitable post-processing
• Using location information contained in the data, the geographic extent of affected areas can be assessed much more quickly than by conventional means (e.g. field teams)
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Crowd-sourced crisis map of Beijing floods, 2012
Wid
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circ
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n W
eibo
Ava
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, mor
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cura
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easie
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read
than
“of
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l” m
ap
Source: irevolution.net
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
The digital divide in China • Mobile penetration in selected provinces
Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Internet penetration in China by province, 2013
Source: China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC)
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
The digital divide in China • Urban vs. rural Internet users
Source: China Internet Network Information Centre (CNNIC)
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
The digital divide in China
Source: Based on National Bureau of Statistics data
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Lessons learned and recommendations
• Narrowing the digital divide • Technology-neutral licensing, spectrum re-farming • Licensing more service providers • First Responder network • Improving resilience of the backbone network • Review of building codes • Improved provisioning of emergency
communications equipment • Liberalising applications and content
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Lessons learned and recommendations
• Narrowing the digital divide • Critical penetration rates for DRM are
currently only around 50% in China • Mobile phones, Internet users
• Infrastructure • Universal Service Fund (USF)? • Additional service providers?
• Disposable income • Subsidised devices and services in rural areas? • Restructuring of economy (long-term)
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Lessons learned and recommendations
• Technology-neutral licensing • Fragmented mobile market structure • Non-optimal technology mix compromises
e-resilience • Spectrum re-farming
• Allow China Telecom to re-farm its 450 and 800MHz CDMA-2000 spectrum for LTE
• Particularly suitable for wide area coverage in rural areas
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Lessons learned and recommendations
• Licensing more service providers • Mobile market with one dominant player
would be able to support and benefit from a 4th network operator
• Rural coverage obligations? (USF) • Regional rural area operators with special
concessions? • Community-based initiatives in remote areas
• WiFi Calling, roaming… • Regulatory environment?
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Lessons learned and recommendations
• First Responder network • FirstNet initiative (US): One common platform
based on LTE for all emergency services (police, fire, ambulance…)
• Replace various outdated trunked radio systems • Substantial investment
• PPP models to prioritise rural and remote areas (critical for DRM)
• Roaming agreements with existing commercial operators for already well covered areas
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Lessons learned and recommendations
• Improving resilience of the backbone network (1) • One dominant player
• Lack of competition and redundancy on major routes
• No fibre backbone in parts of the country • Other/new operators
• Alternative fibre routes • Low-cost wireless/microwave technologies in rural
areas and as backup for vulnerable routes
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Lessons learned and recommendations
• Improving resilience of the backbone network (2) • Strengthen terrestrial fibre links to Europe and
India • ‘Mega-redundancy’ with east coast cable
landing stations • Additional bandwidth for underdeveloped
western parts of the country
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Lessons learned and recommendations
• Review of building codes • Telecom infrastructure frequently damaged
during natural disasters
• Improved provisioning of emergency communications equipment • Delays: Sat-phones (30 hours), emergency
satellite backhaul (4 days) • More decentralised warehousing/provisioning
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ESCAP, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division
Connecting economies and empowering people
Lessons learned and recommendations
• Liberalising applications and content • Good examples of social media and crowd-
sourced data use in DRM • Sector would benefit if international
platforms were more easily accessible and content on local platforms less tightly controlled
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