BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – September 2008 An overview of movements in global financial markets.
BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – January 2009 An overview of movements in global financial markets.
-
date post
21-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
4
Transcript of BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – January 2009 An overview of movements in global financial markets.
BT Monthly Markets Chart Pack – January 2009
An overview of movements in global financial markets
2
Global share markets finished weaker in the first month of 2009...
Global share markets got off to a rocky start in 2009, with all the major indices taking a hit in January amid further evidence that the world economy is undergoing a significant slowdown. In the US, the benchmark S&P 500 Index fell 8.6% while markets in Europe (-8.7%), the UK (-6.4%) and Japan (-9.8%) also closed significantly in the red.
The Australian share market fell for the fifth month in a row in January, with the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index closing 4.9% lower amid rising unemployment and concerns that the economy is headed for its first recession since 1991.
3
Global shares measured by the MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$.Source: BT Financial Group, MSCI
Impact of major market events on global shares since 1986
…but continue to perform well over the long-term, despite some major market events
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
2,700
3,200
3,700
4,200
4,700
5,200
5,700
6,200
Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09
Jan 91Gulf War
Feb 94Bond Market Crash
Aug 97Asian Currency Crisis
Jul 98Russian Bond Crisis
Jul 01Tech Wreck
Sep 01Attack on Twin Towers
Jun 07US Sub-prime Crisis
Oct 87Wall Streetcrash
Nov 89Fall of the Berlin Wall Mar 03
Troops enter Iraq
4
Source: BT Financial Group, Premium Data
S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index – year to 31 January 2008
The Australian share market closed 4.9% lower in January
21,000
23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
31/01/2008 31/03/2008 31/05/2008 31/07/2008 30/09/2008 30/11/2008 31/01/2009
5
Key Australian economic news – January
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by a full 1.00% at its February meeting, taking the official cash rate to just 3.25% - it’s lowest level since early 1964.
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute’s consumer confidence survey fell by 2.2% in January to be 12.8% lower for the year.
The unemployment rate moved slightly higher again in December, this time to 4.5% (was 4.4% in November).
After falling 12% in November, newspaper job advertisements fell even further in December, this time by 13.9%. It was the third consecutive month in which newspaper job advertisements have fallen by more than 10%.
Australia’s trade balance came in below market expectations in November, narrowing to A$1.45bn on the back of falling exports.
Source: BT Financial Group
6
The Australian dollar loses ground against all the major currencies
The Australian dollar (A$) fell 10% against the US dollar (US$) in January, giving up all of last month’s gains as weaker commodity prices and a resurgent US$ combined to push our own currency lower. Since its high of US$0.9849 cents back in July last year, the A$ has now fallen 36% against the US$ and it’s difficult to imagine any sort of sustained recovery in the near-term if global growth remains weak and commodity prices continue to trend lower.
At the end of January:
A$1 bought US$0.6347 -10.1%
€0.4971 -1.8%
¥57.07 -11.0%
Source: BT Financial Group
7
Currency markets – A$ per US dollar
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 January 2009
0.6300
0.6600
0.6900
0.7200
0.7500
0.7800
0.8100
0.8400
0.8700
0.9000
0.9300
0.9600
0.9900
Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
The Australian dollar versus the US dollar…
8
Currency markets – A$ per Euro
the Euro…
0.4900
0.5050
0.5200
0.5350
0.5500
0.5650
0.5800
0.5950
0.6100
0.6250
0.6400
0.6550
Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 January 2009
9
and the Yen
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09
Currency markets – A$ per Yen
Source: BT Financial Group. Figures at 31 January 2009
10
Official world interest rate movements – January
Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England cut their official interest rates in January while the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan left their rates on hold. Here in Australia, the Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate by 1.00% at its early February meeting.
Current rate Last movedDirection of last move
Australia 3.25% Feb 2009
US 0% - 0.25% Dec 2008
Europe (ECB) 2.00% Jan 2009
Japan 0.10% Dec 2008
United Kingdom 1.50% Jan 2009
Source: BT Financial Group
11
Source: BT Financial Group
31 January 2009
Global share market returns
1 year 3 years (pa) 5 years (pa)
Global
S&P 500 Index (US) -40.09% -13.59% -6.10%
Nasdaq (US Tech.) -38.22% -13.81% -6.50%
Nikkei 225 (Japan) -41.19% -21.70% -5.81%
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -43.39% -5.54% -0.02%
DAX (Germany) -36.68% -8.56% 1.34%
CAC (France) -38.93% -15.61% -3.95%
FTSE 100 (UK) -29.43% -10.36% -1.12%
Australia
S&P/ASX 200 Accum. Ind. -34.32% -6.56% 6.00%
S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries -47.86% -12.24% 1.20%
S&P/ASX 300 Listed Prop. -52.85% -20.52% -5.92%
12
Short-term asset class performance
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A
1-year rolling returns to 31 January 2009 (%) Best performing asset class for the year
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994
Australian cash
7.39 6.78 6.09 5.77 5.62 4.95 4.82 5.05 6.32 5.09 5.13 5.54 7.45 7.96 5.66 5.30
Australian bonds
15.16 4.24 3.45 5.91 7.23 2.44 9.20 3.94 14.02 -1.09 8.86 12.72 11.29 20.10 -6.19 16.06
Australian property
-52.85 -23.30 38.86 10.62 32.67 8.75 13.86 15.18 20.12 -6.51 12.91 27.10 10.63 20.93 -10.48 32.61
Australian shares
-34.70 1.53 22.50 25.02 30.79 15.95 -11.28 7.28 11.94 15.72 10.84 13.45 10.86 29.98 -17.58 52.18
International bonds
6.64 8.51 4.42 5.59 8.99 6.83 11.64 7.56 11.50 -1.10 9.95 11.27 9.09 19.82 -1.53 12.41
International shares
-17.28
-14.01 13.41 19.71 7.96 7.33 -31.04 -14.50 8.97 13.65 35.12 31.07 10.29 26.91 -8.68 23.84
13
Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to $A
1-year returns to 31 January 2009 (%)
Short-term asset class performance (cont’d)
-17.3
6.6
-34.7
-52.9
15.2
-14.0
8.5
1.5
-23.3
4.2
31 January 2008
31 January 2009
Australian bonds
Listed property
Australian shares
Global bonds
Global shares
14
Long-term asset class performance
Note: Accumulated returns based on $1,000 invested in December 1984Source: S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, MSCI World ex-Australia (net dividends) Index in A$, S&P/ASX 300 Property Index, UBS Composite 0+ years index, UBS Bank Bill 0+ years
31 January 2009
Australian bonds
Listed property
Australian shares
Cash
Global shares
15
Source: BT Financial Group. West Texas Intermediate oil price at 31 January 2009
Oil prices – US$ per barrel
Oil prices fell for the seventh consecutive month in January amid rising stockpiles and weaker demand
$0
$15
$30
$45
$60
$75
$90
$105
$120
$135
$150
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
16
Summary
There is mounting evidence that the Australian economy is on the brink of its first since recession since 1991, particularly with unemployment now at its highest level in almost two years. That said, the Rudd government has shown that it’s ready to act by way of additional stimulus measures should economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
In terms of interest rates, it would seem that inflation is no longer as much of a concern as it was last year for the RBA, meaning the Bank has some scope to cut the official cash rate even further in the coming months should the need arise.
With global growth set to slow even further and with commodity prices likely to remain under pressure in the months ahead, it’s hard to see a sustained recovery in the Australian dollar in the near-term.
Gains in global share markets, including here in Australia, are likely to remain under pressure in the near-term, particularly as global growth continues to slow down.
17
This presentation has been prepared by BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458) ‘BT’ and is for general information only. Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described. The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs. It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation. Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice. BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee. It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held.
No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author.
For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)