Brussels Development Briefing n · 2013-10-04 · East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean...
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IFPRI/Badiane Brussels Development Briefing n.33 Drivers of success for agricultural transformation in Africa 2 nd October 2013 http://brusselsbriefings.net Agricultural growth recovery and economic transformation in Africa Ousmane Badiane, Director for Africa.
Transcript of Brussels Development Briefing n · 2013-10-04 · East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean...
IFPRI/Badiane
Brussels Development Briefing n.33
Drivers of success for agricultural
transformation in Africa 2nd October 2013
http://brusselsbriefings.net
Agricultural growth recovery and economic
transformation in Africa
Ousmane Badiane, Director for Africa.
IFPRI/Badiane
OUSMANE BADIANE
Director for Africa
International Food Policy Research Institute
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH RECOVERY AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IN AFRICA
AFRICA IS UNDERGOING ITS LONGEST PERIOD OF SUSTAINED GROWTH SINCE THE 1960S
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
An
nu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%)
GDP, annual growth rate (%)
Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing, annual growth rate (%) Source: UN National Accounts, 2013
IFPRI/Badiane
THE GROWTH IS ACCELERATING AS WELL AS SPREADING GEOGRAPHICALLY
SOURCE: IFPRI / Badiane and Ulimwengu Data from national account s / UN database: http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA
THE ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESS
COUNTRIES BECOME RICH BY PRODUCING MORE OUTPUT PER GIVEN WORKER
THIS INVOLVES PRODUCING MORE OF THE SAME GOOD
AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, PRODUCING A LARGER BASKET OF HIGHER VALUE GOODS
COUNTRIES ALSO BECOME RICH OVER TIME
STARTING FROM AN AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL BASE
MOVING TO AN URBAN AND INDUSTRIAL BASE
THE ECONOMIC GROWTH PROCESS
THE DOUBLE CHALLENGE OF MANAGING THE GROWTH PROCESS
RAISING PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURE AND THE RURAL ECONOMY
WHILE DIVERSIFYING INTO HIGHER VALUE GOODS OUTSIDE OF AGRICULTURE
DETERMINING FACTORS
HUMAN AND PHYSICAL ASSETS
INSTITUTIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL RESOURCES
POLICY AND COORDINATION CAPACITIES
Per-capita Income
Share of agriculture in total labor force
Share of agriculture in total GDP
low
High
Agricultural GDP per worker
Agricultural GDP
low high
AGRICULTURE IN THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROCESS
Based on Timmer (2009)
Share of agriculture in total labor force
Share of agriculture in total GDP
AGRICULTURE IN THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROCESS
Time Axis
0
100
Ag GDP Share = Ag labor share Ag incomes = Non Ag incomes
AGRICULTURE IN THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROCESS
0
100
CONVERGENCE: [Ag GDP Share – Ag labor share] => 0
Share of agriculture in total labor force
Share of agriculture in total GDP
(60)
(40)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Shar
e (%
)
CENTRAL AFRICA
(60)
(40)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Shar
e (%
)
EAST AFRICA
(60)
(40)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
19
60
1
96
2
19
64
1
96
6
19
68
1
97
0
19
72
1
97
4
19
76
1
97
8
19
80
1
98
2
19
84
1
98
6
19
88
1
99
0
19
92
1
99
4
19
96
1
99
8
20
00
2
00
2
20
04
2
00
6
20
08
Shar
e (%
)
SOUTHERN AFRICA
Ag GDP Share
Ag Emp. Share
Difference
(60)
(40)
(20)
-
20
40
60
80
100
19
60
1
96
2
19
64
1
96
6
19
68
1
97
0
19
72
1
97
4
19
76
1
97
8
19
80
1
98
2
19
84
1
98
6
19
88
1
99
0
19
92
1
99
4
19
96
1
99
8
20
00
2
00
2
20
04
2
00
6
20
08
Shar
e (%
)
WEST AFRICA
TRENDS IN STRUCTURAL CHANGE AMONG AFRICAN COUNTRIES 1960 - 2008
TRENDS IN LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT IN AFRICA 1980 - 2008
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Ind
ex:
19
80
=10
0
LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Shar
e (
%)
LABOR EMPLOYMENT SHARE
LABOR PRODUCTIVITY HAS STAGNATED IN AGRICULTURE AND DECLINED SHARPLY IN NON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY LOW-PRODUCTIVITY SERVICES EMPLOYMENT HAS FALLEN SLIGHTLY IN AGRICULTURE AND INCREASED RAPIDLY IN NON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGAIN DRIVEN BY SERVICES AND LESS BY INDUSTRY
Agriculture Non-agriculture
Source: FAOSTAT 2011
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR UNDERPERFORMANCE AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE
THE SHARE OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN OVERALL GDP IS LOWER IN NEARLY ALL AFRICAN COUNTRIES THAN WOULD HAVE BEEN EXPECTED BASED ON THE LEVEL OF PER CAPITA OBSERVED AVERAGE SHARES OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS ARE AROUND 30%, NEARLY 20 PERCFENTAGE POINTS BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED BASED ON COUNTRIES’ LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT
Observed Ag GDP Share Expected Ag GDP Share Relationship based on sample of 210 countries over 1960-2008 period
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0 A
gric
ult
ura
l sh
are
of
GD
P (
%)
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Shar
e (
%)
Average Share of Agriculture in GDP
1965-1980 1980-1995 1995-2008
CONLUSION NO. 2
RELATIVELY UNDERSIZED HIGHER-PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR HAS IMPACTED NEGATIVELY ON TRANSFORMATION
$1,758 $4,767 $1,909 $682 $618
SOURCE: IFPRI/Badiane & Makombe based on data from WDI, 2009
Pc GDP in 2008
OVERSIZED SERVICE SECTOR AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN AFRICA
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SHARE OF THE SERVICES SECTOR IN GDP IS MUCH LARGER IN THE MAJORITY OF COUNTRIES COMPARED WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN EXPECTED BASED ON THE LEVEL PER CAPITA INCOMES
THE RELATIVELY BIGGER SERVICES SECTOR IS LINKED TO THE UNDERSIZED AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
IT IS A REFLECTION OF “NEGATIVE DIVERSIFICATION” WITH LABOR LEAVING THE UNDERPERFOMING AGRICULTURAL SECTOR TO MOVE INTO THE EQUALLY UNPRODUCTIVE OR LESS PRODUCTIVE SERVICES SECTOR
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
Serv
ices
sh
are
of
GD
P (
%)
Observed Ag GDP Share Expected Ag GDP Share Relationship based on sample of 210 countries over 1960-2008 period
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
Shar
e (
%)
Average Share of Services in GDP
1965-1980 1980-1995 1995-2008 SOURCE: IFPRI/Badiane & Makombe Data from WDI, 2009
CONCLUSION NO. 3
RELATIVELY OVERSIZED LOWER-PRODUCTIVITY SERVICES SECTOR HAS IMPACTED NEGATIVELY ON TRANSFORMATION
$1,758 $4,767 $1,909 $682 $618
IFPRI/Badiane
NEED TO FOSTER AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND ITS CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
AGRIC. GROWTH
INDUST. GROWTH
1% Growth
1% To
1.32%
AGR. GROWTH AND INDUSTRIAL GROWTH
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 M
alaw
i
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Rw
and
a
Uga
nd
a
Ben
in
Nig
er
Zam
bia
Bu
rkin
a Fa
so
Gh
ana
Ken
ya
Togo
(%
)
2015 Target Poverty Rate Target Poverty Rate in 2015
Projected 2015 Poverty Rate under CAADP 6% Growth Rate
Projected Required Spending Growth to Achieve CAADP 6% Growth Rate
Actual Poverty Rate in 1990
PRIORITY No. 1 MAXIMIZING GROWTH IMPACT OF AG SECTOR EXPENDITURES
Badiane and Ulimwengu (2010)
IFPRI/Badiane
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Agriculture Education Health Social Security
Trends in public sector expenditures (1980 = 100%)
PRIORITY No. 2 FOCUS SOCIAL SECTOR EXPENDITURES ON GROWTH
Badiane and Ulimwengu (2010)
Efficiency effects of a 10% change in different types of health expenditures in Uganda: All diseases 19
0
3
6
9
All households Poor households Non poor households
Consultation Medicine Hospitalization
Percent increase efficiency
FOCUS SOCIAL SERVICES ON PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH EXEMPLE OF HEALTH SECTOR EXPENDITURES
Badiane and Ulimwengu (2012)
Effects of a 10% change in consultation expenditures on farm output (Burkina Faso)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Respiratory Diseases Digestive Diseases Malaria
Percent increase in farm output
FOCUS SOCIAL SERVICES ON PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH EXEMPLE OF HEALTH SECTOR EXPENDITURES
PROMOTING SUCCESSFUL STRUCTURAL CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND INDUSTRIALIZATION STATEGIES
