Brown Sugar: Deriving Satisfaction through Data Analysis · IPSOS Global Confidence Index, June...
Transcript of Brown Sugar: Deriving Satisfaction through Data Analysis · IPSOS Global Confidence Index, June...
Brown Sugar:Deriving Satisfaction through
Data Analysis
By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.
On Behalf of
Louisiana Lt. Governor’s Tourism Summit
August 22nd, 2018
Disclaimer: Any resemblance between the presentation’s title and the speaker is purely coincidental.
Get off of My Cloud
IPSOS Global Confidence Index, June 2018
Source: IPSOS
Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
2
© 2018 Ipsos
US
Largest drops
Turkey
South Africa
Argentina
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index
June 2018
Canada
Mexico
Argentina
55.3/ +0.6
61.9/ -0.9
42.5/ -3.3
47.0 /+1.3
Brazil
42.7/ -1.2
50.7/+0.2
Great Britain
France
43.3/-2.4
Spain
44.3/+1.4 Italy
40.9/+2.3
South Africa43.1/ -3.8
Germany
56.8/ +0.2
Poland
51.0/-0.7Sweden
61.0/ -2.9
Hungary
45.2/ +1.2
Israel
55.1/+1.5
Turkey
37.9/-4.2
Saudi Arabia
57.9/+5.3
Russia
42.2/+1.4
China
71.2/+0.9
India
64.1/ -0.9
South Korea
47.7/+2.0
Japan
45.2/+0.2
Australia
53.8/-0.4
48.8/-1.0
Belgium
High Low
CountryIndex/3-month change
Change ≥ +1.5
Change ≥ -1.5
Largest gains
Saudi Arabia
Italy
South Korea
Global Average: 50.4
(3-month change: -0.1)
Highest (over 60) in:
China, India, U.S.,
Sweden
Lowest (below 40) in:
Turkey
Down in 5 countries:
Turkey, South Africa,
Argentina, Sweden,
France
Up in 4 countries:
Saudi Arabia, Italy, South
Korea, Israel
Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
2
© 2018 Ipsos
US
Largest drops
Turkey
South Africa
Argentina
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GLOBAL SNAPSHOT Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index
June 2018
Canada
Mexico
Argentina
55.3/ +0.6
61.9/ -0.9
42.5/ -3.3
47.0 /+1.3
Brazil
42.7/ -1.2
50.7/+0.2
Great Britain
France
43.3/-2.4
Spain
44.3/+1.4 Italy
40.9/+2.3
South Africa43.1/ -3.8
Germany
56.8/ +0.2
Poland
51.0/-0.7Sweden
61.0/ -2.9
Hungary
45.2/ +1.2
Israel
55.1/+1.5
Turkey
37.9/-4.2
Saudi Arabia
57.9/+5.3
Russia
42.2/+1.4
China
71.2/+0.9
India
64.1/ -0.9
South Korea
47.7/+2.0
Japan
45.2/+0.2
Australia
53.8/-0.4
48.8/-1.0
Belgium
High Low
CountryIndex/3-month change
Change ≥ +1.5
Change ≥ -1.5
Largest gains
Saudi Arabia
Italy
South Korea
Global Average: 50.4
(3-month change: -0.1)
Highest (over 60) in:
China, India, U.S.,
Sweden
Lowest (below 40) in:
Turkey
Down in 5 countries:
Turkey, South Africa,
Argentina, Sweden,
France
Up in 4 countries:
Saudi Arabia, Italy, South
Korea, Israel
50.4
The business confidence index (BCI) is based on enterprises’ assessment of production, orders and stocks, as well as its current position and expectations for the immediate future. Opinions compared to a “normal” state are collected and the difference between positive and negative answers provides a qualitative index on economic conditions.
OECD Business Confidence Index –Select Regions/CountriesJuly 2000 - July 2018
Source: OECD
94.0
95.0
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101.0
102.0
103.0Ju
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OECD - Total Euro area (19 countries) United States
Note: Data for China for June and July are not available.
Travel Spending in the U.S. and AbroadJune 2013 – June 2018
Source: International Trade Administration, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries. *Spending reflects the purchases of goods and services by the U.S. persons abroad and foreign visitors in the U.S. for business and other reasons. Spending categories include food, lodging, recreation, local transportation, but exclude the amount spent on means of transportation to and from the U.S., as well as spending by those traveling for medical, educational or employment purposes.
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-5%
0%
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20%Ju
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3
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Ap
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Jun
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12-m
on
th %
ch
an
ge
U.S. Persons Traveling Abroad
Foreign Visitors to the U.S.
+5.5%
+1.9%
Global Monetary Policy Tightening/EasingAs of July 2018
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker covers fifty-four large countries—mainly those that target inflation in some manner. Tightening policy is indicated in red, loosening in blue. The more a country has raised (lowered) rates, in percentage points, from the most recent trough (peak) in its policy rate, the darker the shade of red (blue). Generally, the policy rate target is the overnight interbank rate, with exceptions indicated.
Source: Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Global Monetary Policy Tracker
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2018 Projected
Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Update, July 2018
1.8%2.3%
1.6%3.5%
7.3%6.6%6.5%
1.7%4.3%
3.4%4.9%
2.9%3.0%
2.1%1.4%
1.0%2.8%
1.2%2.2%
1.8%2.2%2.4%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
BrazilMexico
Latin America & the CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
IndiaChina
Emerging & Developing AsiaRussia
Emerging & Developing EuropeSub-Saharan Africa
Emerging Market & Developing EconomiesUnited States
CanadaAustralia
JapanItaly
United KingdomFrance
GermanySpain
Euro AreaAdvanced Economies
Annual % Change
2018 Proj. Global Output Growth: +3.9%
2017 Growth (Estimate)
World: 3.7% Euro Area: 2.4%
United States: 2.3% Japan: 1.7%
Start Me Up
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
200
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July 2018 = 127.4 where 1985 = 100
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index2005 – July 2018
Source: Conference Board
NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism: Good Time to Expand1986-2018
Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Jul-
86
Jul-
87
Jul-
88
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89
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July 2018:32%
% of respondents who think the next 3 months will be a good time to for small business to expand
Paint It Black – Corporate ProfitsU.S. Corporate Profits After Tax*
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *With Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj); Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
1950
Q1
1952
Q1
1954
Q1
1956
Q1
1958
Q1
196
0Q
1
196
2Q1
196
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200
8Q
1
2010
Q1
2012
Q1
2014
Q1
2016
Q1
2018
Q1
$ Billions
2018Q1: $1.92 Trillion
U.S. Job OpeningsJune 2001 through June 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0Ju
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1
Dec
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Jun
-02
Dec
-02
Jun
-03
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Job
Op
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s (M
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on
s)
June 2018:6.66M Openings
Net Change in U.S. JobsJuly 2002 through July 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1000
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200
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600Ju
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v-12
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No
v-14
Mar
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Jul-
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ov-
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6Ju
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No
v-16
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8Ju
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Th
ou
san
ds
July 2018:+157K
National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector, July 2017 v. July 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-21
8
53
89
106
254
308
327
331
427
518
-50 50 150 250 350 450 550
Information
Government
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Financial Activities
Leisure and Hospitality
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,400K jobs gained
U.S. Labor Force Participation: Men Ages 25-342000 – 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
200
0Q
2
200
0Q
4
200
1Q2
200
1Q4
200
2Q2
200
2Q4
200
3Q2
200
3Q4
200
4Q
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4
200
5Q2
200
5Q4
200
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6Q
4
200
7Q2
200
7Q4
200
8Q
2
200
8Q
4
200
9Q
2
200
9Q
4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
2014
Q4
2015
Q2
2015
Q4
2016
Q2
2016
Q4
2017
Q2
2017
Q4
2018
Q2
89.2%
Louisiana Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)July 2017 v. July 2018 Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-2,700
-800
-300
1,500
1,600
1,800
2,600
3,600
3,800
4,800
4,900
-5,000 -3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000
Government
Mining and Logging
Financial Activities
Other Services
Information
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Manufacturing
Education and Health Services
LA Total:
+20.8K; +1.1%
US Total (SA):
+2,400K; +1.6%
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) seriesLA added 27,752 jobs between July 2017 and July 2018.
-200
-200
0
0
300
400
800
900
1,500
2,400
2,500
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Mining and Logging
Manufacturing
Other Services
Financial Activities
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Government
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Construction
Baton Rouge, LA MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)July 2017 v. July 2018 Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Baton Rouge:
+8.4K; +2.1%
LA Total (SA):
+20.8K; +1.1%
US Total (SA):
+2,400K; +1.6%
-1,200
-100
0
200
500
1,100
1,400
1,500
1,700
2,100
2,500
-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000
Professional and Business Services
Mining and Logging
Financial Activities
Government
Other Services
Information
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Construction
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
New Orleans-Metairie, LA MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)July 2017 v. July 2018 Absolute Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
New Orleans:
+9.7K; +1.7%
LA Total (SA):
+20.8K; +1.1%
US Total (SA):
+2,400K; +1.6%
Louisiana Select MSAs Leisure and Hospitality Employment (NSA)YOY Growth: July 2017 v. July 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
MSAJuly 2017 v. July 2018
Net %
Lake Charles +400 +2.6%
Shreveport-Bossier City +300 +1.3%
Monroe +200 +2.5%
Houma-Thibodaux +100 +1.3%
New Orleans MSA Leisure and Hospitality Employment (NSA)July 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Industry SectorTotal
Employment (July 2018)
YOY
Net %
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 13,700 600 4.6%
Amusement, Gambling, & Recreation 7,600 -100 -1.3%
Accommodation & Food Services 77,500 1,900 2.5%
Accommodation 15,900 800 5.3%
Food Services & Drinking Places 61,600 1,100 1.8%
Total Leisure & Hospitality 91,200 2,500 2.8%
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 UTAH 3.5 18 MASSACHUSETTS 1.8 32 NEW YORK 1.2
2 IDAHO 3.4 18 NEW JERSEY 1.8 32 PENNSYLVANIA 1.2
2 NEVADA 3.4 18 OKLAHOMA 1.8 37 LOUISIANA 1.1
4 TEXAS 3.1 21 KANSAS 1.7 37 ALABAMA 1.1
4 WASHINGTON 3.1 21 NEBRASKA 1.7 37 ILLINOIS 1.1
6 COLORADO 2.9 21 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.7 37 MONTANA 1.1
7 FLORIDA 2.5 24 NEW MEXICO 1.6 41 CONNECTICUT 1.0
7 OREGON 2.5 24 VIRGINIA 1.6 41 WEST VIRGINIA 1.0
9 NORTH CAROLINA 2.4 26 MICHIGAN 1.5 43 ARKANSAS 0.9
10 ARIZONA 2.2 26 MINNESOTA 1.5 43 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 0.9
11 CALIFORNIA 2.0 26 OHIO 1.5 43 MAINE 0.9
11 WYOMING 2.0 29 DELAWARE 1.4 46 KENTUCKY 0.8
13 GEORGIA 1.9 29 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.4 47 MARYLAND 0.6
13 HAWAII 1.9 31 WISCONSIN 1.3 47 INDIANA 0.6
13 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.9 32 IOWA 1.2 47 NORTH DAKOTA 0.6
13 RHODE ISLAND 1.9 32 MISSISSIPPI 1.2 50 VERMONT -0.3
13 TENNESSEE 1.9 32 MISSOURI 1.2 51 ALASKA -0.6
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) July 2017 v. July 2018 Percent Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.6%
Unemployment Rates, 25 Largest Metros (NSA)June 2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey. Note: 1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.
U.S. Unemployment RateJune: 4.0% July: 3.9%
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 2.8 13 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 3.9
2 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2.9 13 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 3.9
3 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 3.0 15 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 4.0
4 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 3.5 16 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 4.1
5 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH 3.6 16 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 4.1
5 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 3.6 18 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4.2
7Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
3.719 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 4.3
20 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 4.4
7 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 3.7 20 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 4.4
7 St. Louis, MO-IL (1) 3.7 22 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 4.5
10 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3.8 23 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 4.6
10 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 3.8 23 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 4.6
10 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3.8 25 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 4.7
Gimme Shelter
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAugust 1995 through August 2018*
Source: Freddie Mac
*Week ending 8/16/2018
4.01%
4.53%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%A
ug
-95
Feb
-96
Au
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g-1
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Rat
e
15-yr 30-yr
U.S. Households: Owner v. Renter Occupied, 1965-2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Pew Research Center
36.2
75.4 76.2
21.3
34.2
43.1
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
196
5
196
7
196
9
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
200
1
200
3
200
5
200
7
200
9
2011
2013
2015
2017
# of Household Heads (Millions)
Homeowners
Renters
• From 2006-2017 the number of households headed by owners remained relatively flat.
• At the same time, the number of households renting their home increased significantly (+26%).
• The share of renter households also increased—from 31.2% of households in 2006 to 36.1% in 2017.
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
198
0Q
219
81Q
219
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219
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84
Q2
198
5Q2
198
6Q
219
87Q
219
88
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198
9Q
219
90
Q2
199
1Q2
199
2Q2
199
3Q2
199
4Q
219
95Q
219
96
Q2
199
7Q2
199
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219
99
Q2
200
0Q
220
01Q
220
02Q
220
03Q
220
04
Q2
200
5Q2
200
6Q
220
07Q
220
08
Q2
200
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220
10Q
220
11Q
220
12Q
220
13Q
220
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220
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220
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220
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220
18Q
2
2018Q2:64.3%
U.S. Homeownership (NSA)1980Q2-2018Q2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau *NSA: not seasonally adjusted
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70Ju
n-9
3
Jun
-94
Jun
-95
Jun
-96
Jun
-97
Jun
-98
Jun
-99
Jun
-00
Jun
-01
Jun
-02
Jun
-03
Jun
-04
Jun
-05
Jun
-06
Jun
-07
Jun
-08
Jun
-09
Jun
-10
Jun
-11
Jun
-12
Jun
-13
Jun
-14
Jun
-15
Jun
-16
Jun
-17
Jun
-18
$ B
illi
on
s (S
AA
R)
U.S. Private New Multifamily ConstructionJune 1993 through June 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select MetrosMay 2018, 12-Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
3.1% 3.3%4.2%
5.0%5.6% 5.6%
6.5%7.0% 7.1%
7.6%8.5%
10.9%
12.6%
12-M
on
th %
Ch
an
ge
19th
NervousBreakdown
Gross Domestic Product1990Q2 through 2018Q2*
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *1st (Advance) Estimate
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%19
90
Q2
199
1Q2
199
2Q2
199
3Q2
199
4Q
2
199
5Q2
199
6Q
2
199
7Q2
199
8Q
2
199
9Q
2
200
0Q
2
200
1Q2
200
2Q2
200
3Q2
200
4Q
2
200
5Q2
200
6Q
2
200
7Q2
200
8Q
2
200
9Q
2
2010
Q2
2011
Q2
2012
Q2
2013
Q2
2014
Q2
2015
Q2
2016
Q2
2017
Q2
2018
Q2
% C
ha
ng
e f
rom
Pre
ced
ing
Pe
rio
d (
SA
AR
) 2018Q2: +4.1%
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through July 2018
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%A
ug
-07
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
Jul-
10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
No
v-13
Ap
r-14
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-
15
Dec
-15
May
-16
Oct
-16
Mar
-17
Au
g-1
7
Jan
-18
Jun
-18
On
e-m
on
th P
erc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
July 2018: 110.7 where 2016: 100
Total U.S. Debt Volume by Select Loan Types, Index 1991Q1=100
Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
199
9Q
219
99
Q4
200
0Q
220
00
Q4
200
1Q2
200
1Q4
200
2Q2
200
2Q4
200
3Q2
200
3Q4
200
4Q
220
04
Q4
200
5Q2
200
5Q4
200
6Q
220
06
Q4
200
7Q2
200
7Q4
200
8Q
220
08
Q4
200
9Q
220
09
Q4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
2014
Q4
2015
Q2
2015
Q4
2016
Q2
2016
Q4
2017
Q2
2017
Q4
2018
Q2
Mortgage
Auto
Credit Card
Global Debt Reaches All Time Highs (IIF)
Sources: 1. Institute of International Finance (IFF), Global Debt Monitor. 2. Business Insider. 3. The Telegraph. 4. Reuters.
• According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), global debt has reached an all-time high in 2016;
• At $247 trillion as of 2018Q1, global debt—including household, government, and corporate—now represents 318% of global GDP;
• Last year the IMF warned of risks to the global economy:
• “sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented private deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery”
Shiller Price-Earnings Ratio, 1980-2018
Source: Robert J. Shiller Data used in his book, "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press.
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jul-
80
Jul-
81
Jul-
82
Jul-
83
Jul-
84
Jul-
85
Jul-
86
Jul-
87
Jul-
88
Jul-
89
Jul-
90
Jul-
91
Jul-
92
Jul-
93
Jul-
94
Jul-
95
Jul-
96
Jul-
97
Jul-
98
Jul-
99
Jul-
00
Jul-
01
Jul-
02
Jul-
03
Jul-
04
Jul-
05
Jul-
06
Jul-
07
Jul-
08
Jul-
09
Jul-
10
Jul-
11
Jul-
12
Jul-
13
Jul-
14
Jul-
15
Jul-
16
Jul-
17
Jul-
18
July 2018:32.17
Shattered! --- Bitcoin Price, 2014-2018
Source: CoinMarketCap.com
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
$20,0008
/1/1
4
10/1
/14
12/1
/14
2/1/
15
4/1
/15
6/1
/15
8/1
/15
10/1
/15
12/1
/15
2/1/
16
4/1
/16
6/1
/16
8/1
/16
10/1
/16
12/1
/16
2/1/
17
4/1
/17
6/1
/17
8/1
/17
10/1
/17
12/1
/17
2/1/
18
4/1
/18
6/1
/18
8/1
/18
8/19/2018:$6.5K
Employer Costs for Employee Compensation2017Q1 v. 2018Q1
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *Private industry workers except for State & Local Government category.
-1.2%
0.0%
0.9%
1.9%
2.4%
3.2%
3.3%
4.9%
5.2%
5.7%
5.7%
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
Manufacturing
Other Services
Construction
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
State & Local Government
All Private Industries
Professional & Business Services
Information
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
% Change in Cost of Total Compensation Per Hour Worked
Time is on My Side, at least in the Near-Term
• U.S. setting up for best year since ’05. . .;
• Global economy better than it was -- still;
• Job opportunities are abundant;
• Corporate profitability elevated;
• Consumer and business confidence has been surging. . .;
• And now tax cuts, including major reductions in corporate taxes . . . What could go wrong?;
• A lot can go wrong – that’s always true – first there are the Black Swan threats:
• “I’m forever blowing bubbles, pretty bubbles in the air, they fly so high, nearly reach the sky, and like my dreams, they fade and die”;
• Where are all the pretty bubbles? Equity markets? U.S. bond market? Commercial real estate? Bitcoin?
• 2018 will be fine – better than fine –2019 might be, too, but beyond that, potential deleveraging cycle prompted by a repricing of assets – Bad!!!!
Thank YouPlease follow me on Twitter -- @sageanirban
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