Presentation in Response to:

Solicitation R2114367P1.

100-Year Flood Elevation Map and Associated Modeling

Lago Consulting & Services LLC 4237 Henderson Blvd. Suite 201.

Tampa, FL 33629

Sept 27, 2017

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Content

3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required4. How we will validate those improvements5. How we intend to address non-stationarity as it relates to development of IDF curves

for future conditions6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform the project

Presented to Broward County’s Selection Committee Members, Sept 27, 2017813.774-5559

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Our Team, Our main roles Lago Consulting & ServicesBermello Ajamil and PartnersRoss EngineeringCRS Max

• Data Processing and Analysis.

• Community Outreach

• Community Rating System Improvement

• Stakeholder Involvement

• Community Outreach

• MIKE SHE/MIKE11 • Utilities/Tools• Non-Stationary IDF• Flooding Maps

LAGO B&A

ROSSCRS Max

1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities

1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities4

Ananta Nath, P.E, D.WRE – Senior Water Resources Engineer at LAGO

Peter deGolian, MSc. – Senior Project Manager and Senior Hydrologist at LAGO

Marcelo E. Lago, PhD, GISP, CFM – Vice-President and Senior Scientist at LAGO

Project Manager

Deputy Project Mngr.

Principal Modeler

• Project manager for all work assignments,• Oversee the work and supervise assigned personnel,• Coordinate with the County on all matters regarding the project,• Provide support in his areas of expertise and QA/QC.

• Day to day supervision of activities, deadlines and schedule,• Support the project manager in all contract matters,• Assist in coordination with County staff,• Hands-on in activities related to his areas of expertise.

• Hands on guidance and supervision of all modeling tasks• Define modeling approaches, methods and evaluate alternatives• Lead programmer for development of project related utilities.

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Maria C. Bravo, PhD, P.E. – President and Sr. Scientist and Engineer at LAGO.

Michelle Irizarry, P.E. – Senior Professional Engineer at LAGO

1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities

Principal in Charge

Future Condition/ IDF

• Verify that all contract obligations are met• Provide QA/QC and serve as the senior technical advisor • Technical leadership and schedule personnel and resources for

successful execution of each task.

• Technical lead for Non-Stationarity IDF Curve development• Specialized support in task 4 to generate storm events assuming

nonstationary conditions for both 2060 and 2100 future conditions.

Robert Ross, PE – Principal Engineer and Vice-President of Ross Engineering

Data Collection QA/QC

• Data collection activities, including data review and QA/QC• Community outreach activities.

Herman Taube, PG – Senior Geologist at Ross Engineering • Review of MODFLOW output files for conversion into

groundwater utility• Utility testing and verification.

ModFlow Expert

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Coordinate with Broward County, 298s, professionals, developers municipalities, regulatory agencies and business organizations on the results of the modeling efforts. TAC/WAB, Surface Water Coordination Committee, ASCE, FES, Task Force meetings

Jose L. Lopez, P.E., PMP – Senior Professional Engineer at B&A

Coordinate with Broward County and public outreach. Public forums.

Teresita Garcia– Public Involvement Director at B&A

Technical Outreach

Community Outreach

1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities

Earl King, CFM – CRS Senior Consultant and Vice President of CRS MaxFEMA’s Community Rating System. Hands-on on CRS related matters of this project. Provide support to summarize CRS potential creditable criteria and recommendations, as required in task 10.

CRS outreach

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Project ManagerDeputy Project Manager

Principal ModelerPrincipal in Charge

Future Condition/ IDF

Technical Outreach

Community Outreach

Data CollectionModFlow Expert

Capabilities.

CRS Expert

1. Key members, their role in the project and their capabilities

Role

Key Members

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BC Model lessSFWMD’ data

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required?

TOPOGRAPHY

LAGO pre-evaluatedand found differences between the model elevation data and the most recent DEM from the SFWMD. The BC model will be updated with the new DEM.

Cross-sections will be reviewed to ensure that ground elevations are consistent with new elevation data

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3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required?

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

LAND USE

Water classified cells in the model do not include all water bodies

Recommend updating the landuse map and related parameters

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STRUCTURES

Review structure data currently defined in the model Verify invert elevations and dimensions Verify operational rules and protocols

Collect data on recently constructed structures and stormwatermanagement features in the model area. New Permits Coordination with SFWMD Projects in City of Fort Lauderdale

3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required?

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

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DRAINAGE

LAGO developed utility to evaluate drainage routing

Will evaluate current model drainage routines and correct as needed to improve

COUPLING SW-GW

Will evaluate leakance coefficients in the MIKE 11 network

3. How we intend to identify and address model improvements that might be required?

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

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4. How we will validate those improvements?

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

LAGO will evaluate the accuracy of the model and its ability to reproduce measured data. For this:

1. LAGO and the County will establish criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of the model to produce results that are consistent with measured flow, stage and flooding information

2. LAGO and the County will select one or two recent storm events to be used to evaluate model performance

3. Collect measured data of flow and stage for the selected events. Also collect anecdotal information (pictures, reported flooding) for use in area where measured data is limited

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(Cont.)4. How we will validate those improvements?

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

LAGO’S EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE APPLYING MIKE SHE/MIKE11 MODELSwill be utilized during the model verification process to ensure that the

model accurately predicts the system response

• Changing the topography and land use suggests that the results of the initial model run may not fully represent the observed conditions for the selected storm events.

• LAGO will implement an optimization process to validate the model

Our team will put Special focus on structure operations and input

parameters that control the timing and volume of runoff during storm

events.

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1. Go directly to existing downscaled Datasets that could show smaller biases in historical extremes, such as:

Lessons learned from our Hands-on experience on Non-stationary IDF curves dictates the following steps:

Non-stationarity continue in next slide

LAGO will provide immediate analysis & suggestions on the dataset selection for Broward County consideration and final decision

5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF Curves for Future conditions?

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

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3. Apply a quantile mapping technique for temporally downscaling extremes for durations shorter than 1 day similar to one used by Tetratech (2015)

Non-stationarity continue in next slide

4. Use Carney (2016) method to increase confidence in most extreme events (100-500 year frequencies) to correct biases in the Generalized Extreme Value shape parameter.

Note: IDF curves are desired to be projected to year 2100, but most of the downscaled model products end in the year 2100. Therefore, a 40-year period analysis would be centered around the year 2080.

LAGO counts with a code in “R” to effectively address steps 1 & 2

2. Lago, in consultation with Broward, will decide which percentiles and which Representative Concentration Pathways’s of downscaled model predictions to consider in the analysis SFWMD concerned with overall 5th-50th-95th

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF Curves for Future conditions?

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Concern: Joint Probability of occurrence of all flood driving variables? SLR, storm surge, extreme rainfall & moisture conditions

Extreme rainfall events, combined with Sea Level Rise scenarios will be evaluated.

5. Lago will decide in consultation with Broward which temporal rainfall distribution to use in this project Normalized curves by NOAA Atlas 14 or SFWMD Apply Lago Precipitation-Duration tool to develop input files

Adopted by the County on 2016 as the basis for a SLR projection for planning.

Compact, 2015

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

5. How we intend to address non-stationarity related to development of the IDF Curves for Future conditions?

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ALL our Pre- and Post-processing tools that MAXIMIZE the Modeling efficiency, and MINIMIZE human errors.

Among the most relevant for this project are:

MODFLOW Res To dfs: Converts MODFLOW result files to dfs2 and dfs3 files formats (for MIKE SHE).

Process PP_Print.log file : Produces visual map with discharge location of each cell where drainage is specified

Hydroperiod from Microtopo: Maximum water depth maps at a higher resolution than MIKE SHE Grid. The BC model is 500-ft grid, but grid-based topographic data sets are usually with grids as small as 5-feet.

LAGO will develop a utility to convert results from coastal modeling efforts into MIKE’s format for use as boundary cond. in the canal network and overland component.

6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

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MODFLOW Res To dfs: Converts MODFLOW result files to dfs2 and dfs3 files formats

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

6. Unique tools and utilities that we intends to apply in this project

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1. Identify stakeholders

2. Communication outreach tools

3. Organize and Coordinate meetings

and Public forums

7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project

Coordinate withTechnical CRS

Public Outreach

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

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Stakeholders

Community Outreach Tools

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project

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Technical

Stakeholders meetings in coordination with water control districts, professional organizations, business and developing industries.

• South and Central Broward, coordinate with SBDD and CBWCD

• North Broward, coordinate with OPWCD, NSID, CSID, Cocomar and Broward

County

• Coastal Broward, coordinate with Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood, Dania Beach,

Hallandale Beach, Pompano Beach and Deerfield Beach

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project

Development of Program for Public Information (PPI)Strategic utilization of this CRS outreach could earn a total of 495 points:

• 350 points in CRS Activity 330 – Public Outreach• 100 points in CRS Activity 370 – Flood Insurance Promotion• 45 points in other CRS Activities

Each class within the CRS program is separated from the next higher class by 500 points. Team member CRS Max Consultants has proven success with developments of PPIs (9 in South Florida alone).

Additional points resulting from Lago team efforts may be earned in other CRS Activities, including:

Activity 320 – Map Information ServiceActivity 410 – Flood Hazard MappingActivity 430 – Higher Regulatory StandardsActivity 440 – Flood Data Maintenance

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CRS

Activity 450 – Stormwater ManagementActivity 530 – Flood ProtectionActivity 540 – Drainage System MaintenanceActivity 610 – Flood Warning and Response

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project

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South Florida communities improved within the past 6 years:

• Collier County (Class 6 – Class 5)

• Palm Beach County (Class 6 – Class 5)

• City of Boynton Beach (Class 7 – Class 6)

• Town of Jupiter (Class 6 – Class 5)

• Town of Surfside (Class 10 – Class 8)

• Village of Tequesta (Class 8 – Class 7)

• Village of Wellington (Class 7 – Class 6)

LAGO Team has proven success in working together with local communities to improve their respective CRS classifications.

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project

CRS (Cont.)

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Public Outreach

• Presentations to professional organizations

• Public forums with Water Control Districts and utilities

• Presentations to business stakeholders and insurance companies

• Meetings with developers

• Meetings with local organizations

2. Brief Review of Project Approach

7. How we intend to use the community outreach process to actually inform about the project

Conclusions: Why LAGO?25

Q u e s t i o n s ?

Matchless MIKE SHE/MIKE11 Modeling Experts. Well versed on the MIKE’s suite, its algorithms, solvers and troubleshooting, etc.

Authors of original Broward MIKE SHE/MIKE11 Model.

Masters on data mining, management and analysis. Local experts.

Exclusive expertise in export/import from other model platforms. Ex:. Utility needed for MODFLOW developed & tested.

Unique set of pre- & post processing (user friendly) tools & well established reputation for developing Tools/Utilities as needed.

Current Broward Model/Input data pre-evaluated by LAGO.

Proven Local Leadership in Predicting Non Stationary IDF curves.Code in R already developed and tested.

Unmatched Skills in Community Rating Systems (CRS) Improvement

Exceptional Range of Public Involvement Experience in Broward